We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC017: Bitcoin Onchain Analytics & Timing w/ Charles Edwards (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey, everyone. Welcome to our Wednesday release of the show where we're talking about Bitcoin. Today's guest is a good friend in person I've been following for years, Mr. Charles Edwards. Charles is a quant investor and the creator of a popular trading metric called Hash Ribbons and Trade King. On today's show, we talk about Charles' opinion on energy costs, potentially setting the price floor for Bitcoin. We talk about some of his favorite metrics for understanding market trends and much, much more. So without further delay, here's my conversation with Charles Edwards. You're listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network.

Starting point is 00:00:40 Now for your host, Preston Pish. All right, so here I am with Charles Edwards, like we said in the introduction. And Charles, welcome to the show. Thanks, having me. Preston's great to be here. We've been chatting for a long time now. And I'll tell you, I really pay close attention to your messages on Twitter, more so than probably most people that I follow. And the reason why is because

Starting point is 00:01:15 you have a real knack, especially for Bitcoin, of just kind of knowing where things are going, you have the ability to kind of really be able to have your thumb on the pulse and to really kind of understand in an unemotional kind of way where things are moving. So my question, just to kind of start things off for you, is just how do you think about the valuation? We have tons of people from traditional finance that listen to the show. Talk to us about some of those ideas of like how you're looking at the value of Bitcoin. Just before I do it, I must quickly say a big thank you to you and Stig. I think your podcast is amazing. I've been listening to it for years almost every episode. It's taught me a lot from investing and how I invest in do trading

Starting point is 00:01:56 with Bitcoin even. And probably maybe more importantly for me at the time was the, in particular, a couple of episodes on entrepreneurship and making the leap of faith, I guess, into the unknown. And that really helped me start my adventure as well. So I owe you a great debt of gratitude. We're honored. Yeah, we're honored, man. We really appreciate that. So, yeah, in terms of valuation, my background was value investing as well. So I was really into Buffett's approach, Buffett's essays, intelligent investor for probably 10 years or so, and went about and tried to go about an algorithmic approach to valuing stocks using a discounted of cash flow approach and automating that and did that for some time a number of years quite

Starting point is 00:02:41 well. But I obviously called the Bitcoin bargain and wanted to take that valuation approach to Bitcoin because I could see the power of it. But a lot of the analysis was really just more price or speculation based, I suppose. There was quite a lot of good work done by Willie Will in particular. I wanted to kind of build on that. So I looked at it from a fundamental perspective at the start, and now that's kind of grown into fundamental and technical analysis is how I kind of present that to people. But the reality is that it's grown into all sorts of information, anything which kind of comes into supply and demand. So four or five years ago, I thought technical analysis was rubbish. I actually was at a John Bollinger presentation. I left halfway through

Starting point is 00:03:22 because I just thought it was hocus focus focus. And the irony is that it's not. There's limitations to every method of investing and analysis you do, but there's a lot of power in different information. So I try and consider now anything from, you know, technicals, momentum, fundamentals, on-chain, sentiment, whatever you call it. I think all of this information, any information, is just an input into a supply and demand calculation in the day, which supply and demand sets the price for any asset. I would argue even value investing, it's the same thing when you, you know, discounting cash flows and trying to come with intrinsic value, you're basically saying at this price, if it's worth $10, below that, the supply that dries up because no one's willing

Starting point is 00:04:04 to sell it because within a margin of safety, of course, why would you sell it when the business is worth more? So you know that when you buy below that, there's a statistical probability that there's an upward pressure in price. So I tried to take that same approach to Bitcoin and basically consider anything which would set that from whatever it be on chain to, to, to, to, you know, to price behavior to different fundamental inputs or just even correlations with the stock market as well. So talk to us about some of these metrics that you're talking about because back before the having event, you and I, and to be honest with you, I took the idea completely from you, but I was just talking about it a lot, which was the hash ribbons. This was an idea that you had talked about.

Starting point is 00:04:46 There's many other ideas that you're kind of using various metrics for. So talk to us through some of these metrics, maybe start off with the hash ribbons. And whether you've find it valid today or if it's only valid at certain points in the four-year cycle. Talk to us about some of that stuff. Hashtrovens is probably what are most known for, one of my earlier indicators, and still today I think probably the best long-term buy signal for Bitcoin. So I was just trying to come up with an approach to find out when a capitulation event in Bitcoin ended. So every cycle there's usually an 80 or 90% down to the Bitcoin price, and there's been three or four of those type events. And what I was trying to do with house rooms in particular is to identify when that was

Starting point is 00:05:26 over to get the best buy opportunity. And it turns out that when the price drops from the cycle peak, say 20, 30, 40 percent, at some point, the inefficient miners start to struggle to be profitable or they find other opportunities maybe with higher profit margins in other old coins or in other business ventures with their equipment. So they start to shut down, particularly the miners with higher electrical costs. So the average Bitcoin mining electrical costs around 3.5 cents per kilowatt. It varies widely. So some miners can do it for a cent and they'll be fine no matter what. And some are like five cents or six and they will struggle when these events happen. So they'll potentially turn off. Some will shut down completely, go out of business and maybe

Starting point is 00:06:11 sell off their Bitcoin to get out of that. And that's when you have that real collapse and price, another 30 or 40 percent type collapse. And when that is over and, you know, you're left for the efficient miners and difficulty adjust down and makes things to be easier. Things start to bottom out and creep back up. And when you see that reflected in the hash rate and then also even better, matched with some price momentum, it's been a great buy opportunity. So that is kind of like a bottoming of the,

Starting point is 00:06:37 I suppose, the supply. And in general, with a lot of the metrics I look at, it's much easier to identify undervalue and bottoming than it is to identify tops. And I can talk about that a bit more later. But yeah,

Starting point is 00:06:50 It is because, I'll say it now, because when you, it's like intrinsic value with the stock, when it's under that price, you know you've got a good deal. Whereas if it's, if the stocks were $10, but it's now $50, you don't know if it's going to go to $200 or back to $10. Because of the emotional piece that's driving it, like it's too hard to determine emotionally, how much more? Yeah, it's easier to identify the fair value, but not when the overvalue was over, I suppose. So with Bitcoin in particular, you know, it's one or two percent adoption globally.

Starting point is 00:07:23 So the upside potential, if there's a demand influx, it's huge. So you can go to massive historical levels of overvaluation very quickly, and it's harder to identify that top. I'm not saying you can't do it. It's just you can do it much more accurately with the bottoms because you know that the supply is gone and this is where you usually start to trend up. So for tops, there are other metrics like looking at like huddlewaves, which is basically metric of what percentage of the Bitcoin miners have been holding Bitcoin for more than, say,

Starting point is 00:07:53 two years is a good baseline. So the longer term, smarter money, and if they're selling or buying, it's very interesting. Different premiums and discounts, so gray scale premium, for example, the stable coin prints, so the supply of Tether in particular, USDT. Another one I really like is I wrote an article about it as well. A couple years ago, dynamic NVT, so network value to transact. So it's like a P ratio for Bitcoin. And that one in particular, when that gets into an over-extended red zone, it's often a good time to take off some risk.

Starting point is 00:08:24 Same with the main multiple, which has actually worked really well the last few months, which I know you're a big fan of. And when that's been above sort of 2.4, 2.5, that high-levelage area, it depends on your time horizon, but it's a good idea to maybe manage a risk a bit better. So probably I should come with all these metrics. It really depends on your time horizon. So if you're investing for five years plus, there's basically only one metric, it's just buy more. Obviously not investment advice, but any metric you look at one to two cycles onwards,

Starting point is 00:08:54 it almost says everything is undervalued for Bitcoin. You'd be struggling to see it under $200,000, five, six, seven years time. Pending a huge anomaly or Black Swan type of event, we cannot foresee right now. When I tweet or a lot of the articles I write, it's usually looking at that sort of one to four year period or monthly level period of how can we try and manage those big downdrawers of 80% and when's a good time to buy. So that's another time horizon where a lot of these metrics I just talked about, I think, are valuable.

Starting point is 00:09:25 And then if you want to go even more high frequency in that, which is some of the trading that we do at Caprioli and buying and selling on hourly type level, it's a different set of data and it's a completely different supply and demand model. So somebody who would hear the previous part that we were talking about as far as it being difficult to understand a top because of the emotional aspects of the market participants. I think a person would hear that and say, well, the same thing could be said about a bottom, but I suspect your answer goes to the electrical cost and minor stepping in. But I'm curious how you respond to something like that, considering you should expect

Starting point is 00:10:02 the exact same thing on the bottom. I suppose the demand is infinite relative to the current price, so it can go 100x, whereas the supply isn't. That's probably the highest level summary. But yeah, you're right. Production cost is a great metric for that because it's looking at the electrical cost of mining Bitcoin and the number of Bitcoin mine per day to calculate what is the price to mine a Bitcoin. And once Bitcoin price goes below that, it starts making sense to start shutting down your operations. There's kind of two levels there. Production costs, and at less than the article I wrote, considers more generally business costs. So it might be a rent and warehouse.

Starting point is 00:10:41 housing, profit margins, everything. But even below that is electrical costs. So that's the price at which you literally wouldn't need to just turn off your Bitcoin mining rigs because the price of Bitcoin has broken that threshold. That has never happened historically until March 20 last year, where we dipped under it for a few hours. And you had the ultimate buy signal ever at $3.5,000 $4,000. It's hard to believe that was less than a year ago. I know. It's in three days a year ago, yeah. And that was a 70% drop in a day, which has happened one other time for Bitcoin and extremely rare in that time of cycle. So an unusual event. So when you're getting to those, you know, whether it be hash ribbons, production costs, or extreme

Starting point is 00:11:25 levels of undervalishing there for Bitcoin and considering, you know, where we think this is going, particularly in the macroeconomic environment we're in, it's a great buy signal statistically. So, Charles, you've written an amazing article on this whole idea that you're talking about as far as the electrical cost and they're being almost like a floor to the Bitcoin price based on these electrical expenses that the miners are producing. What's the name of the article? And then is there any other highlights that you would point out from that? I think that would be Bitcoin's production cost as the article.

Starting point is 00:11:59 Yeah, I'm medium. So I've got a few articles there which goes through a lot of the metrics we're talking about here in greater detail. So yeah, feel free to check that out and have any questions, people going to shoot them through. Are you firmly of the opinion? So when you look at the price chart and you see that it almost is like a perfect representation of Metcalf's law, especially when you look at the base and the bottom of the price action over the last decade, you're of the opinion that the miners and the energy to mine the Bitcoin is setting that floor?

Starting point is 00:12:31 Would that be a correct assumption? Yeah. Yeah, it plays into Metcalf's law and also the Lindy effect and the domination that Bitcoin now has in this market. So, you know, you'd be a bit more questionable maybe about these theories four or five or six years ago, but now it's very clear, as a number of the guests in your point I've spoken about as well, that Bitcoin is a clear winner in this decentralized monetary space. So you can, I suppose, trust in these metrics a bit more. You see it recently when we broke out a trillion dollars and Bitcoin is the fastest growing up.

Starting point is 00:13:02 asset to get to that faster than Facebook and the internet and these other metrics. Do you see that production cost pulling and governing the pop of the price? Or do you feel that maybe the price could just keep on running and it could become a dominant global currency without the price, the energy costs, pulling it back down into a lower level? Yeah. So I think it goes through cycles. I think right now the production costs are not very useful for us because we're so far above

Starting point is 00:13:31 it. the energy value is also less valuable. That's around 25,000. But the main thing with those metrics is it's mean reverting. So the energy value in particular, so that is a model which maps the energy input in jules, almost one to one to Bitcoin. So it assesses the hash rates, the mining hardware efficiency and the supply growth rate of Bitcoin. And basically, you calculate it all out and it's just jules of energy in and multiplied by a price multiple and you get the energy value. Yeah, price is mean reverted to that consistently. for the last 10 years, it's, I think, yeah, it's something very powerful, in my opinion.

Starting point is 00:14:06 But it comes back to your intrinsic value, like your value in investing for it. When prices below it, it's a great buy it, when it's above it, you know, you're in a little bit maybe extended territory and needs to be a bit more careful or it provides less value. Historically, though, at the last cycles, prices extended, so pretty consistently, four to 500% above energy value at the tops. It doesn't mean it will this time, but that sort of regions where you want to be a bit careful. we're now at about twice energy value. And the things to look out for there are when hash rates and energy value just start

Starting point is 00:14:36 to drop. That's when you probably want to start either managing risk or definitely not be buying when you've seen the network drop. And that's just one element. So there's the hash rates which gives you insight to the miners, but you might see institutions start unloading coins onto exchanges or, you know, the main multiple might be really high as well. You really want to get a confluence of factors to line up and give you an insight as to whether

Starting point is 00:14:58 of the top maybe and but yeah, certain metrics are more useful when you're near fair value, so production cost, energy value, and other metrics are better when you're extended or maybe more valuable, such as may and multiple or the dynamic NTV ratio. Talk to us a little bit about your opinions on the macro backdrop, particularly in the past year and how you think that kind of plays into the Bitcoin narrative. So I think, as I guess, I've probably got a pretty similar view to you in that, probably the best man in room to talk about this is Ray Dalio and his views on these cycles. So, yeah, strong believer in what he writes about where we are that we're near the end of a hundred year debt cycle,

Starting point is 00:15:43 you know, and that's a period where there's a lot of debt restructuring, potentially currency collapse. And in the midst of that, we have Bitcoin appearing as the perfect candidate. So I think that plays into Bitcoin's hands. The same time, even before last year, or, Last year's recession was like pretty obviously going to happen that a lot of the macroeconomic factors were screaming towards it, such as the yield curve inversion, which has had a perfect hit rate. And you've now got this situation where we're at the end of a huge cycle. We've got recession.

Starting point is 00:16:12 We've got lockdowns and a struggling economy with, you know, G&P down. Stocks valid in gold is still down from 2018. So when I look at it, the macro, you see that an economy that doesn't look very healthy. It's propped up with continual monetary stimulus and you see stocks flying high. So I'm not here to say that stocks are overvalued because it's hard to say that when you've got this much printing, people need to put their capital somewhere. And that's either gold, Bitcoin or stocks. Obviously, we think Bitcoin's a great choice there.

Starting point is 00:16:46 But it's hard to know where that train ends. I think the optimistic scenario is the beautiful de-leveraging that Delio talks about where we hopefully have some great policies implemented, debt reduction by government, which lines up perfectly with monetary printing. But I personally am not seeing that. I don't know if you've got any insights there, press on. Yeah, no, I'm with you. I think when you're looking at that, you're just saying, I think this is where Ray gets the most grief from a lot of his followers. I think people say this whole beautiful, the leveraging thing that you talk about at the end. How does that work again?

Starting point is 00:17:20 Yeah. It seems very optimistic. I love it to be true, but I think that it's going to, they can't stop printing. So the question is if they'll implement policies to manage the debt down, which I am not saying. So for me, at some point, it's got a, it feels like it's got a buckle in terms of people, there'll be a switching point. We're seeing a Bitcoin every day with a price appreciation. There'll be some point where it would be like, well, this money's worthless like it has happened at the end of every debt cycle. And then there's probably a more clear. obvious hyperinflationary type event, which I think we're seeing now in asset inflation, but not really in day-to-day living so much yet. So what does that mean? I think for stocks,

Starting point is 00:18:01 it means there's probably going to be a lot of volatility to the upside, for sure, but if things collapse also potentially to the downside, as we saw in Weimar, Germany and a number of the other inflationary cases. For Bitcoin, I think it's great in the long term because it's the obvious contender to fiat currencies right now. In the short, short term, there is some risk in large down drawers or collapses like we had in March last year. So it really depends on your time horizon. If you can't handle volatility like that, like, you know, 30, 40, 50% drops, which could happen if the stock market drops 30% tomorrow, then Bitcoin's probably not for you. But if you're willing to accept that's possible

Starting point is 00:18:39 and stick around for a number of years, probably going to be a great option to navigate in this economic situation we're in. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right, I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is. From June 1st through the 3rd, 2026, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its 18th year,

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Starting point is 00:22:50 That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right. Back to the show. So, Charles, what are your thoughts on this cycle that we're currently experiencing in Bitcoin? I'm assuming you believe in these four-year cycles. But give us your thoughts on that. And then where do you see us right now? in this bull run that we're currently experiencing?

Starting point is 00:23:14 There's probably two parts of the 40 cycle and where we are now. So I, coming into this year, I thought we were going to get to one or 200,000 at least. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we, you know, touching the 300. And that's based on about a year ago long-term forecast with energy value, just pretty simple regression, but also a number of other metrics you look at, whether it would be stock to flow, for example, or different things. Even Fibonacci sequences is amazing how closely, and there's something else who think was crazy, but how closely the long-term and low time frame price action of Bitcoin matches into different

Starting point is 00:23:50 golden ratio sequences. So almost every Bitcoin top is about 17 to 18 times the Fibonacci retracement of the prior top. So that puts us around 300K. Yeah. So all the metrics kind of point to that region. And I think we will get into most likely 200K and possibly higher. And from there, the bounds are probably dependent on economic stimulus. I think the 25% inflation we've now had, which we never had before, in terms of monetary

Starting point is 00:24:19 printing, will ratchet that up and more than a 25% factor. So the price appreciation we've had just in the last few months of Bitcoin is significantly fast in 2017 when there was maybe arguably more hype at that time, but closer to 2013. And I think the speed may be contributed or it's probably contributed from the institutional buy-in and the hedge against that monetary inflation. So I think we're going to that to a regional region, but I would adjust that based on new information that may come out in the months if we're getting four or five trillion stimulus. So who knows what in the next six, 12 months, that will probably impact it quite significantly.

Starting point is 00:25:00 In terms of the cycles, yeah, I think we're still on the four-year cycles for now. So a learning for me has been in investing and trading to be careful of this time is different. So it's easy to do that, particularly in hype and mania and top of cycles. Oh, we're never going to crash again and Bitcoin's a new thing. But usually if it statistically happens one way, that those odds will continue. So a good example is the hash ribbons, for example. We had a buy signal in December. And we've had four buy signals since I've released that.

Starting point is 00:25:31 and they're all up between 150 and 600% since that was released without any change. But the one in December, there was a good narrative going around that, because the end of the wet season for their miners. So the Chinese miners during the wet season, they relocate across the country, use hydropower because it's cheaper, and then after that they relocate. And they have to obviously turn on and off their rigs to do that. And that causes the hash rate to drop and you then get another buy signal. So it was speculation.

Starting point is 00:25:59 and even I had a little bit of, I suppose, nervousness about the strength of it because of that not being really a capitulation type event. But, and whether or not that narrative is true, it doesn't really matter because it worked. That may sound simple, but the hash ribbon or the hash rate assesses the entire network globally, so it assesses all factors. And that's the beauty of it in identifying those opportune times to buy. So what I'm trying to say in that story is that you should just trust the data until the data proves otherwise. or unless the narrative is backed by some really strong data, like, you know, with the 25% monetary

Starting point is 00:26:33 inflation we have now, which will probably impact some metrics. So it's better to kind of potentially use a something which may work, which is historically worked really well until it maybe doesn't work quite well than it is to abandon it based on a narrative. So with that story, I'm trying to say, I think the four-year cycle probably continue or that we should be very careful at the end of it for a large drawdown because even if we have widespread institutional adoption, a lot of the large holders of Bitcoin have been around for five, 10 years, and even if it's self-fulfilling behavior, you will see that their movements of coins and how they react to these metrics and things

Starting point is 00:27:10 will drive outcomes and it can be self-fulfilling. That said, I'll revise that if we get massive stimulus or some kind of economic meltdown situation or change of events, but for now I would bet on the four-year cycle. Looking out further, like 10, 20, 30, whatever years, I think those cycles will diminish. So the depth of them, it will kind of approach more of the exponential flatter curve. So instead of the big dips, you get shallow dips and so on. Because of tourism, I think the impact of the miners reduces their relative share of supply

Starting point is 00:27:46 and also the net impact of any individual holder or entity reduces. So historically, Bitcoin has been really retail driven, maybe speculation-driven. and now we're getting more institutions in. The coin share is getting more distributed. So all of these factors, I think, reduce the impact of capitulation events or massive sell-offs or the impact of any individual party, I suppose. And the other key factor is that all of the key components of Bitcoin are knowable and pre-programmed, as we know, the supply model, hash rate model, difficulty, whatever metric it

Starting point is 00:28:18 is you want to look at on chain. It's all there for analysis. And I think in the long run, a lot of, there's a halving priced in, right? So obviously it wasn't hard. Haring wasn't priced in. And we had a huge appreciation. But at some point, whether it's five, 10, 15 years, whatever it may be, or one year, these events will get more and more priced in by institutions, I believe,

Starting point is 00:28:36 and by the public in general and expectations, maybe whether it be stock to flow or any model. And that will smoothen the volatility. So in the long run, I think actually, Bitcoin has a history of being considered volatile and risky, but that's probably the least risky asset into the future, in my opinion. And it may be the least volatile asset in the long run as well. Charles, do you see a possibility that a meltup in Bitcoin could happen after a certain threshold is breached just as far as adoption rates go? So we all talk about these four-year

Starting point is 00:29:10 cycles because that's what we've seen the date. But is there a certain point in the future where trust breaks down, erodes from the traditional system? And there's this all at once flood into Bitcoin that causes the price to melt up. And then it just really never comes back from that. It just keeps on running, almost like a Germany papermark chart from the 1920s. Exactly. So that's the one event I do think about some, as I mentioned before, how do you, this volatile event that may happen in the market because of lack of trust.

Starting point is 00:29:42 And there's probably a breaking point with people like, well, I don't want any of this currency. I think we're quite away from that, but it could definitely happen. It's just, it's, you know, it's an event that happens once 300 years and we've never seen it on a global scale, on a digital asset. So it's almost impossible to predict. It'll probably be obvious when you're in it. It's a tough one to answer. I think at some point, obviously, I believe in Bitcoin long term and in the adoption, but I don't know if that event would be two years, 10 years or 20 years away. But I think with every day that we have economic conditions like now, I'm interesting.

Starting point is 00:30:16 else right now, it gets closer. Let's talk about the Contango trade. So this is something that you've posted about. I've seen you post about what's going on there. First explain what Contango is, and then talk us through why you think that this trade exists. Because I find this trade to be kind of mind-blowing, especially considering your cost of storage for Bitcoin is literally nothing or near nothing. And when you think of Contango in like the oil market, a lot of the times it comes down.

Starting point is 00:30:46 down to the price of storing the oil because there's been an oversupply, starts getting built into the future prices. But this is a strange one. So explain what it is and then give us some of your thoughts on it. Yeah. So I think you're talking about the long and short trade I posted about. So the one I specifically wrote about, and there's a number you can do, but this is the one I know a bit more about. If you have Bitcoin, you just want to make an interest free rate or return on that. You can deposit it with a loan institution, Block 5. next or whatever it may be. There's lots of them now. And you get 50% of that capital back.

Starting point is 00:31:21 You've got 10 Bitcoin to get five back. And with that, you can then short it on a perpetual future contract is the one I look at. And they historically have an average funding rate of 0.01% a day. So it's roughly compound at 12% a year. And that's the baseline rate. But that rate varies. So it will often be above or below that. And it depends on the markets. If it's a market, it might often be below because it's based on the positions that traders are taking. But in a ball run like now, and there's lots of demand for Bitcoin and lots of people speculating and price increases, it gets really high. So 10 times higher or 5 to 10 times higher is not unusual.

Starting point is 00:32:02 So if you do that trade, you would deposit your 10 Bitcoin. You get five back for free, so to speak, with some interest rate to pay, 5% to 10% a year. And then you short that the entire amount on a petrol contract and you get somewhere between 12 and probably 50 plus percent a year interest free on that on that trade. There's no risk of this platform risk that, you know, the exchange goes down, you lose your coins. All those, I would argue, smaller risks that we have today. But in terms of the actual trade itself, it's zero risk. And you get, you lock in like somewhere between a 12 to 30 plus percent. interest on your on your coins.

Starting point is 00:32:45 So in this, you're locking up coins. You're taking the 10 that you originally started with. You're locking those up. You're getting five back. Then you're putting those into the market. And you're doing these activities that are putting coins into escrow, instead of letting the coins come into the underlying buying and selling market, which in my opinion is driving, is an increased bid on the price because of supply

Starting point is 00:33:12 suffocation of the coins. Do you see it the same way, or do you think that it's still net neutral, or is this kind of a narrative you disagree with? Yeah, so you're saying that because people are locking in their bit coins, the supply is less and that is pushing price up a bit more, is that what you're saying? Yeah, I think it's actually almost like a second happening event. Yeah, it could be. I don't know if that trade is that occupied yet. Probably, I think it is on an institutional level, and obviously it's a very attractive trade. So if it isn't now, it will be even more in the future. So I think there's a valid argument to that.

Starting point is 00:33:50 And it's hard because that's one component of lockup. There's other lockups of, you know, just hoddlers buying, you know, Michael Sela buying, put on his balance sheet. There's various levels of lockups. So for that sort of supply side, it's great to look at things like the huddle waves or the net flow of coins from exchanges. So which just gives you a bit more of a macro view of, of that phenomenon of supply drying up that you talk about. So, good examples, I tweeted as well,

Starting point is 00:34:16 not too long ago about Coinbase is about 15,000 coins going out a week. So somewhere between half a billion and a billion a week, which is pretty obvious institutional buying. So, yeah, we're definitely seeing that supply being sucked out of the system, at least over the weekly and monthly level. So, yeah, a lot of it, I don't know at the extent, but a good portion of it could be going into that trade. What are your thoughts on the exchange, the number of coins that are being pulled off the exchange. Because relative to the previous four-year cycle, I mean, the quantities are, it's drastic. It's kind of crazy to see the amount of coins coming off the exchange. Do you have any thoughts on that? Yeah, it's been really bullish. I think the rate

Starting point is 00:34:56 has slowed down a little bit in the last weeks. In particular, the hotter waves, the percentage of of people who have held Bitcoin from all the two years has kind of peaked near a 270-type level and come down. And normally that drop happens around mid-cycle, so 30 to 50% through the cycle, which I'd argue is roughly where we are now based on historical cycles anyway. And when that starts to steepen, it indicates people product selling out. So it's a change of hands, right? I think a lot of its kind of institutions, which will probably have stronger hands,

Starting point is 00:35:30 but that trade is not as strong for me right now as it was three to four months ago when it was just straight down. It may continue to do that, but it seems to have slowed down for the time being on the shorter time horizon. So a lot of people on Twitter were wanting to know what are the big metrics you're looking at for where we're at right now in the cycle and probably the next two or three months from now? We've talked about, what do we talk about?

Starting point is 00:35:57 Hash ribbons, energy value, pressure costs, whole waves, dynamic NTV. So we're touching that. It's the network value of big quotes of the. market, kind of like the market cap divided by the transaction values. So essentially what the value, what value is throwing to a network, kind of like a P ratio. And when that gets above the two-year long-jiband, it signifies overvalue. So the price of network is significantly higher than historical level from a transaction perspective. So we touched into that recently the other day, as well as the main multiple when we had that 30% drop. So that's a good one to watch.

Starting point is 00:36:32 Stable coins are also good. Large inflows or outflow. in that it can trigger the same or the opposite reaction of price. So I think a good description of that is when when there's large demand for in particular USDT, which is the biggest one at the moment, the US dollar stable coin, it indicates that people are either de-risking from crypto and getting out of it and into the US dollar or there's a lot of new entrants coming in. So a common onboarding way is to convert your US dollar straight to UST, for example. So what does that mean?

Starting point is 00:37:02 people usually get out of Bitcoin or altcoins or whatever it may be when they're concerned or there's fear and they want to do risk. And that often lines up with a bottom or a local price bottom. So when you see large relative increases in USDT or other stable coins versus Bitcoin, it's actually a good indicator that there could be some appreciated in Bitcoin, whether it be from the new demand or from the sort of bottoming factor of existing players. And that's vice versa. You can use that as well as an indicator for when the topping process may be. Shorter term or probably less reliable is the gray scale premium.

Starting point is 00:37:39 So we're seeing lately that I think right now it's about five, the price of gray scale stock is about 5% under the Bitcoin price. So there's only a few data points there. So I'd be a bit worried with it. But every time it's been under 5%, which has only been three times, I think, in five years, the price has done very well over the coming months. So we're now negative 5%. So I would suggest the next few months should be really really.

Starting point is 00:38:02 good. And again, that's just an indicator with a few data points, but that's why it's really important to combine a number of these metrics to get you an overall picture of what's happening. So they're the ones I'd probably really pay attention to right now as the NVT, May multiple USAT and different premiums. What are your top three lessons that you would tell somebody younger, just about trading or value investing, just investing in general? What are your top three tips? That's a tough one on the spot.

Starting point is 00:38:39 Yeah, I think you have to love it. And if you really want to do it seriously yourself and not get someone else to do it, so you could probably come back to Buffett's quote of just buy an index if you're not going to spend your time on this. But if you really love it, then definitely go for it. And I think the more reading and research you can do the better. So your podcast is a great start.

Starting point is 00:38:59 Lots of books. you know, Buffett books, trading books, and just getting, being a sponge and all the information out there, I think getting locked up in a camp of, oh, I'm only a value investor, or I'm only a technical trader, or I'm only this, it blocks you out to all the ideas that are out there, and it did for me for years. And now I, you know, logically you might say that doesn't make sense that this would lead to this price of doing that, and therefore it can't be. And that's how you block it off mentally. But as soon as you say, no, let's, let's open that up. why could it be or maybe it is just because it statistically is,

Starting point is 00:39:33 just being open-minded to everything in all information will give you a huge advantage over everyone else who usually locks himself into one camp. I totally agree with what you just said. Totally agree. Like if I could have thought that I would be posting a chart on Twitter that had the MACD five years ago, I would have laughed at you out.

Starting point is 00:39:57 I said there's absolutely no way that's ever going to happen. Yeah. Yeah. And most of the people who shoot you down or disagree with their ideas saying, oh, that's crazy. That doesn't happen or it's like this. And any closed mind attitude like that is not going to help you grow in investing, I think. That's particularly in this world where every bit of data and information out there is now valuable. We interviewed Bill Miller pretty early in our podcasting time.

Starting point is 00:40:26 And that was one of the things I kind of distinctly remember after we were done talking. to him because he was talking about incorporating technical indicators and things like that. And I just, I remember walking away from the interview, just kind of like, wow, I'm kind of surprised that here I am talking to this legend of value investing. And he was talking to us about things that I just really was not expecting him to be bringing up. I share your sentiments so much there, Charles. I really like that.

Starting point is 00:40:53 Okay. What are your thoughts on defy centralized finance? And if you want to talk the NFT stuff, feel free. I'll disclaim to this. My expertise is in Bitcoin and it's basically my whole life. So I don't take it with a grain of soul. I think even though I spend my whole life in crypto, it's so deep. You need to be an expert in different areas.

Starting point is 00:41:14 But I think there's a huge amount of value in defy, to be honest, in the long term. I think it's right now what we're seeing is very similar to 2017 ICO phase where you've got tons of new tokens and models and most of them are. fail or go to zero. And it's, I think it's two huge problems that any individual project has if it's genuine in that a startup and business model in this area in itself is really hard, and then actually decentralizing that and handing over complete power and everything to a network is even harder. So doing both of them, the chances of success are very slim. And Bitcoin's only one that's really done it today to be fully decentralized. But having said that,

Starting point is 00:41:56 the concepts of the, the concepts of that. come out of it, I think, are really powerful. So, you know, even Bitcoin failed for, you could say, 10 or 20 or 30 years, whatever it may be, you know, BitGold and those different models that broke down because you couldn't get, you know, you couldn't get a digital money, which was, there was only one version of it. And I think we're seeing that now with NFTs, for example, whether you can have millions of copies of it or on different chains. So it doesn't work now, in my opinion, but I think it will in the future in some format, which maybe we can't consider right now. But the Defi, so Dow's in particular, so decentralized autonomous organizations,

Starting point is 00:42:30 really interesting to me. So the idea that a business can be sort of tokenized, decentralized, and run by voting, as opposed to having command and control, CEO, person in charge. I think that model with AI on top where, you know, people just vote on general direction or on general concepts, I think that would be really powerful in the future. I don't know what network that would run on. Maybe Maybe it's Ethereum, maybe it's one of these newer Pocod or whatever it may be, other networks. Maybe it's Bitcoin eventually. But the concepts of it, I think, are really sound. I just wouldn't, I'd be very careful to invest in it now because, yeah, your chances

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Starting point is 00:46:34 All right. Back to the show. Let me go back to that other comment you just made. And it's mostly because of the probabilities that you assign to all these potential array of outcomes. You just don't have any type of confidence in any one of them. Basically, I don't have any confidence in any of the alt-coin being properly decentralized and having a genuine model to build an infrastructure that works like this sustainably into the future. There are some tokens which I find interesting, like stock-like tokens, like

Starting point is 00:47:05 NXA I've written about in the past, where they're trying to model a stock. They pay a dividend. And most of the other tokens, they're trying to get value from voting rights and token burns. And I tried doing a lot of different valuation approaches on token burns. I couldn't find any which justified the values of these altcoins in the past. But I think the dividend model is interesting where you're trying to tokenize a stock essentially, but there is a trust element and security, securization regulation element, which is probably missing in audit element. So it's the wild west.

Starting point is 00:47:37 And the probability, like I said, the probability is assignment success is extremely. extremely low. But if you do get one of them or two of them, you're going to do extremely well, I think. NFTs, yeah, I struggle with the concept of it because of the duplicity of, yeah, so tokenizing art, basically digital art. And I think the value of any, even if you've got a great piece of artwork, which is, you know, worth millions on one of these chains, I think the value that artwork is intrinsically linked to the chain. So there's, you know, dozens of different crypto chains out there, which one will survive, probably most of the loan. Maybe. Maybe we'll have NFTs in the future. We don't know.

Starting point is 00:48:14 And on that topic, so just so folks know, this NFT stuff, this is non-fundable tokens is what we're talking about, where the idea is like if you create, let's say you create a piece of digital art through encryption, maybe as websites are sharing that piece of art, that the person who actually owns the digital asset, they could somehow be streamed some type of value in the future for the use or the utility that it provides on the internet. So I think a better example is kind of music. So if a person would create a song, that person who created it obviously owns it. As people listen to it, they get streamed money.

Starting point is 00:48:54 They get streamed SATs, Satoshi's, for the use of somebody listening to the song. And if you're dealing with an internet that has, where the platforms where this music is getting streamed can determine who's listening to it, who the owner of the song is through that non-fungible token, then the streaming of value can then come back to the owner of it. My issue is the same as yours, Charles, which is just we are way way to the left of that being a reality based on how the internet is currently the architecture of the internet and the encryption that is provided and the platforms, how they would interact with these tokens. We're just, I mean, we're way far away from this being a reality.

Starting point is 00:49:42 That's the concept. Yeah, that was well described. I agree. I think this really intelligent and life-changing concepts in here, and probably that's music streaming or art or art credibility sharing, and maybe there'll be a way to say, if you've copied this art, you can't, or, you know, to link it to shut down the, for the network. Or it's like 20 sats or whatever to do a copy of this JPEG or whatever.

Starting point is 00:50:08 Exactly. I can see a future where it's basically tokenizing everything, putting a price on everything and giving the owner some ownership in that revenue model. And I could see that being happening in the world in the future. But like you said, the way the world currently works so far away from that. And the probability of any individual chain being successful in that is really low. Obviously, that's where the reward is as well. Like, if you can get it now and it ends up happening, you're going to do amazingly well.

Starting point is 00:50:34 But it's super low probabilities and I need a digital pick. The copy-paste element of media is just way too easy. I mean, okay, it's a song. Now I could just grab my external recorder and record it or it's a picture. I can take a picture of the picture. I just don't know how any of that will be enforced in the future. But, hey, you never know. Yeah, exactly.

Starting point is 00:50:59 I agree with you. Going back to one of your points there, one of your lessons, keep an open mind. You never know. I want to talk a little bit more about this GBTC premium. You hit on it a little bit earlier that it got to a negative five of the value that's actually inside of the trust. You said this has happened, I think you said, three times previously in the last five years.

Starting point is 00:51:23 Sorry, it's been under 5%. It's a positive 5% three time in the last five years. And it got as low as, I think, negative 10% a few days ago. and now it's negative five. Yeah, so I think there's a lot of people concerned about what does this mean now that it's gone below the value that's actually on the underlying. Is this a trend that you see persisting in the future because they're now getting competition? What are some of your thoughts on that?

Starting point is 00:51:51 To be honest, I'm not sure. I think the competition factor could be a relevant narrative that is suppressing it a bit. but I think that it comes back to my point of this time's different. When you've got relative undervaluation, it's usually a good time to buy. And when you've got Ovaluation, it's usually a good time to de-risk. So when that premium has been as high as 20, 25 percent historically, it's actually been a good time to de-risk or to, you know, there's been some kind of local top in Bitcoin, whether it be just for a couple of weeks or whatnot until that resets.

Starting point is 00:52:23 But it gives you a good indication of sentiment towards the asset. Yeah, I haven't analyzed it in any depth as to why it's so low right now, because for me, it's an interesting metric, but it only has a few data points. But nonetheless, it's probably a good idea to go with the data and not the narrative. So the data says it's undervalued. It's probably a good buy zone. So, Charles, when I think about a hurdle rate that's near impossible to outperform, Bitcoin's at the top of the list, especially over the last year. And your fund has outperform this hurdle rate, correct?

Starting point is 00:53:00 To be clear, our model, our algorithms, which we call Trenting, has. So last year, we got 680% with no leverage, so more than double Bitcoin buying whole. And the fund, yeah, so that's excited to say that we launched the US Fund for Incredited investors two weeks ago. So that's newly launched. I can't give you any data on that, obviously.

Starting point is 00:53:22 But, yeah, so today we've been doing pretty well. How long have you guys been active? And then I'm kind of curious back testing results prior to the time. So this, the 680% that you said is the last 12 months? That was full 2020. That was for 2020. Okay. Yeah. And then when did you guys launch the fund? It's been a big evolution. So we've grown very quickly. It started as we had these indicators. And then there's been a subscription model, which, uh, people, it's been independently tracked and we've got, that's where that 680% comes from and sent, you know, for the last six or so months, we've been doing some managed accounts and now we've launched the fund. So, yeah, we've grown quickly and we're now managing over 40 million. And if a person wanted to, do they subscribe to Trend King? How does that work? As a business, we work with high now worth investors. So if they've got, you know, we're licensed to to manage their assets if it's over 100,000.

Starting point is 00:54:26 I'm kind of curious when you run the model of your trend king, back during the market peaked in 2018, went through the big sell off, the 80% correction that everyone's well versed on. How did the model perform in back testing during that period of time? Pretty well. Well, tell them what were the numbers? Well, first thing is you should take backtest results with a grain of salt. Live performance is the better metric, in my opinion.

Starting point is 00:54:56 Drawdowns of 30 to 40% aren't unusual in this sort of model. There's always some drawdown. You can't have a perfect self-and-by-the-bottom model. But, yeah, so it performed pretty well. The returns we're getting in real life are pretty comparable to the back test results. You basically doubled. So it was down 80%. You were down 30 to 40%.

Starting point is 00:55:19 Am I reading that right? I wouldn't line it up. So, you know, there's a lot of the profit we make in those cycles is from shorting as Bitcoin is falling. So the volatility we get is often at different times to when Bitcoin is experiencing volatility or it can be in a different direction. Got it. So, Charles, what is a tail risk that concerns you the most? There's probably two for me, and I know you've spoken about a lot of your podcast, I look forward to this, it's the regulatory risk, which, you know, of outlaw, arguably. And then it's the potentially hacking or risk or breaking of the value of the chain in some

Starting point is 00:56:01 format, whether that be a 51% attack or, you know, some super computing, quantum computing outcome. I know there's plenty of arguments against that. I'm not saying they're high probability by any means. These are outlier, super low probability events. I don't really worry about. But I think there's still some validity to them. So we're seeing everything move in the exact opposite direction, as you've spoken about your

Starting point is 00:56:23 podcast, where it's being integrated, particularly in the US, into financial systems, it's banks allowed to use it, companies are holding it. And a longer and longer that goes on, the harder is to outlaw. And then for any individual country to outlaw it, it's just a negative for them. The only thing I can see is if there is this catacomalistic event or hyperinflation event, which we talked about earlier, where you get sort of mass adoption or change, would it be possible for the G7 or G20 to all align and say, you can't have this anymore, or we're going to buy it off from you like the US dude with gold. It's super unlikely, right? Or how they could

Starting point is 00:57:00 unite and do that is super unlikely. But it comes back to being open-minded, I guess. So there's always that small chance that it happens. So that's probably the highest risk I would say, even though it's very small and seems improbable now. We never thought a year ago would be in lockdown for you. I don't want to turn the risk into a positive. I'm just kind of curious how you would think about this. Let's say a major country does ban it, like the U.S. Let's say the U.S. would ban it.

Starting point is 00:57:29 I think that's probably the best risk scenario you could get. Do you find that in the short term, there's a massive price hit, but then, like we were discussing earlier, the energy cost, for all the remaining countries that haven't banned it, that energy cost that the miners supply or that floor, that bottom that we suspect is being supplied by the minor production cost, would it just bring the price back to whatever? We're thinking 100,000, let's just say 100,000 is where we think the production cost is now based on the stock to flow. The U.S. comes out and bans it.

Starting point is 00:58:04 The price takes a massive hit initially. Maybe it doesn't. Let's just walk through that scenario that the price would take a major hit through a situation like that. Does that production cost at the minor supply bring the price back up to that 100,000 level, regardless of the country, the mega country that bans it? I think in short, it depends on the extent. So if it's something like the US, I think there is going to be a big hit because they're such a big player,

Starting point is 00:58:30 you're such a big player in this space and the integration is so deep probably. And there's also a lot of mining there now. So the production costs, if all that stuff just got switched off overnight, would drop. So the production costs may drop 30, 20, 40%, who knows. And the value would probably drop in line with it. It depends when and where in the cycle that would happen. So I think it would be a price hit. But I don't think any individual, if it's just an individual country,

Starting point is 00:58:57 I don't think that's going to matter any more long term. Like I say, I think there'll be a hit short term, whether it be three, six, 12 months. But unless everyone unites, the incentive structure of Bitcoin is aligned that it's better for the other countries if they support it. So it's hard to see this playing out unless there is a unified effort against it, which we're just not seeing any indication of right now. Okay, Charles, last question. What is the thing that you look at on Bitcoin that kind of is the most impressive thing to you, or the thing that you think so many people miss that is the

Starting point is 00:59:34 secret sauce or something that just like stands out to you? It's nothing special from a Bitcoin perspective, it's just the supply model, the halving event inflation model, harving of supply model, where it's now on par with gold and it will be the hardest asset in the world. And the way that that is so decentralized, funnable and instantaneously transactable, people miss the power of that because they just see the volatility, but they don't realize that if Bitcoin is going to be the success that we think it is and all signs show that it's going this direction. And it does become a reserve currency or at least equivalent with gold. We're heading towards 10 or $100 trillion or more. So you can't go from zero to $100 trillion or we're now $1 trillion.

Starting point is 01:00:22 You can't go 100x without volatility. So people dismiss it because of that volatility, but it's an essential ingredient of getting there. It's like any startup going from zero to a billion except this is the biggest asset in history doing the same thing. So I think that's what people miss. They just miss it because of volatility. But the power of it in being the future currency and reserve asset of the world is you just can't ignore it, I don't think, especially in this environment we're in today. Charles, I've really enjoyed chatting with you. I'm glad we were able to do this face-to-face here on Skype at least.

Starting point is 01:01:00 And, man, I've been following you for a while. and can't thank you enough for making time to come on the show. Give people a handoff to some of your stuff and then I'm going to have all this in the show notes. I'm going to have your energy article there, Bitcoin's production cost article in the show notes, but give people a hand off to some other stuff. Thank you so much, Preston. It's always great to catch up and talk about Bitcoin and the market dynamics and it's been a pleasure to be here. You can follow me on Twitter. It's at Caprioli I.O. So name our business Caprioli. And our website is the same Caprioli.io. So you can reach out there and happy to chat. Charles, thanks so much for your time. Thank you for us. Hey, so thanks for everybody

Starting point is 01:01:41 listening to the show. If you enjoyed the conversation, be sure to subscribe to the show on whatever podcast app you're using. We really appreciate that. And if you have time, leave us a review. So thanks for joining us this week and we'll catch you next Wednesday. Thank you for listening to TIP. To access our show notes, courses or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or re-broadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC017: Bitcoin Onchain Analytics & Timing w/ Charles Edwards (Bitcoin Podcast)

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