We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC048: Does the Stock to Flow Model Eventually Break w/ Plan B (Bitcoin Podcast)

Episode Date: October 20, 2021

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 02:33 - What's happening in the broader macro economy from his perspective? 16:56 - Will the Stock to Flow model eventually fail? 30:49 - Regional trends - specific...ally with Proof of Work. 38:16 - When will more countries start to adopt it? 41:33 - Is the ETF important? 50:29 - Lightning adoption, what's the impact? 54:31 - Would Plan B ever reveal himself? *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Plan B's Website: PlanBTC.com. Read the 9 Key Steps to Effective Personal Financial Management. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Bluehost Fintool PrizePicks Vanta Onramp SimpleMining Fundrise TurboTax Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

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Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey, everyone, welcome to this Wednesday's release of the podcast where we're talking about Bitcoin. Today's guest is the one and only plan B. For anyone in the Bitcoin space, they obviously know who he is. But if you're new to Bitcoin and you're just learning, he's the guy that developed the stock the flow model and a couple other price models that have been closely followed and hotly debated amongst many of the followers in the space. During the show today, we have a candid conversation about how that model might eventually
Starting point is 00:00:27 break down, we talk about the macro economy, and we review the big sell-off that happened during the summer and much, much more. So without further delay, here's my conversation with the one and only Plan B. You're listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. Hey, so like I said in the introduction, I'm here with Plan B. Wow, great to have you back on the show. I love these conversations. excited to get into it. Thank you, Preston. Thanks for having me. And are you sure you still want to have me because my words are deemed dangerous and harmful and even illegal. Oh, my Lord. Yeah, Pomp looked like he had a little bit of a pucker factor there going on. Luckily, all got restored pretty fast. Yeah. Have you heard anything on what happened through all that, or is it just kind of a mystery as to how his account got the platformed there for a few hours? He has a very nice video and breakdown about that.
Starting point is 00:01:42 Oh, does he? Yeah, yeah. And it's must listen, actually. He speaks very well about how the ease at which one employee of YouTube or any other platform can cancel someone, right? And he has one million followers, so he can make a lot of noise. But there are thousands of people that cannot do that. And those are canceled as well. And they're just losing their life's work.
Starting point is 00:02:07 Oh, yeah. And all their revenue streams. It's a scary thought. And it happened to us yesterday or the day before that. But it's very interesting how the communication with YouTube went because YouTube first said, well, things are being said that are dangerous and harmful. And those are illegal activities and blah, blah, blah. It was something about the content and basically something that I said probably.
Starting point is 00:02:33 Hey, so the thing I wanted to start off with was just the overall goal. global economy. You have such great thoughts that I know the times that we've talked in the past, that's probably the part that I really enjoy talking to you most, is just really kind of traditional markets and the macro that's happening. So right now, what would you say is your overview of the bigger global themes or trends that you're tracking in just the global economy? I tracked us, of course, very well. And it has to do with my lifelong employment as an institutional investors. So I have a look at markets. I follow them. And the way I look at them is not not very, for non-institutional investors, it's different. So I understand that people like to hear
Starting point is 00:03:17 those thoughts. But what I see, it's really interesting time we're living in. Lots of things are happening, big things. And well, one of the things, of course, is the quantitative easing, the printing of money, the stuff that's happening in the US with the $3.5 trillion bills. that are introduced and the money that's needed for that. And the world is drowning in money. Every time there is a new problem in the social aspect, could be COVID relief, in the banking sector, in some other sectors. The only solution seems to be money printing.
Starting point is 00:03:54 And if that were the solution, of course, Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be the richest countries in the world. It is not the solution. It will make the problem worse. But what we see, of course, as a consequence is lower interest. rates. The negative interest rates in Europe persist, so even go down a little. That is an unheard of situation. We've never seen that a couple of years ago. And we've seen asset prices rising and rising and rising. I don't know how it is in the U.S., but in my country, the Netherlands,
Starting point is 00:04:25 also other countries in Europe. The rising, the rising prices are really getting problematic. It's nice if you're the owner of a house because you can almost stop working and just refinance the house every year with the increase in value. Yeah, you are getting to that point. And we're seeing the same thing here in the U.S. with the housing prices. It's just going berserk. Yeah, and people that don't have the money or to start capital. And that's most more and more people.
Starting point is 00:04:52 They count buy a house. They have to rent a house, but rents are going through the roof. It's such so that people cannot get away from their parents' houses and get into big troubles with their finances because the houses are so high. And now they're all making measures in the tax sphere, so taxing house owners, et cetera, as if that were the problem. No, the problem is the money printing and all that money has to go somewhere. Equities, real estate, Bitcoin, gold, well, the asset, the asset inflation.
Starting point is 00:05:23 And now that asset inflation is, of course, spilling over in consumer prices, energy prices first, of course, and it will go down to core inflation as well. core inflation is the inflation basket without the energy prices, because that's the volatile component in the inflation index. And the core inflation is what central banks are tracking. That will go up as the last thing that's going up. But yeah, everything is going up. I mean, it must be different than the US as well. But in Europe, so winter is coming, right? So heating prices, oil, gas, electricity, double at the moment. So households are going to pay double the gas and electricity prices next year. And that will certainly cause problems.
Starting point is 00:06:06 And it's very interesting. And then if we look geopolitical, it's very interesting what's going on with China and the US at the moment. I think it's ever gone the thing in China with the real estate debacle going on there. The US bashing China, it's all started with the tariffs, of course, the trade terrorists under Trump. But it goes on and on. And China, of course, looking at Taiwan now after it took Hong Kong. Those are big movements and the South Sea situation militarily. It's all very, very volatile and very, you need one match to light the whole thing up. And it's scary in a way.
Starting point is 00:06:49 New people that are maybe just coming into the space would hear that and they would say, well, I'm playing the contrarian here. I know you're going to knock this question out of the ballpark, but I think it's important for education purposes for people. So a person would be hearing all that and they'd say, well, you know, you just had a global pandemic. They had to print all this money. And this is just kind of a spike.
Starting point is 00:07:10 And then you're going to have, like they're not going to have, they're not going to be printing $4.5 trillion in the coming years like they did for, I think that was the number that you said for COVID. So some of this stuff will start to normalize. It just needs more time. You see these banks that the big time banks, I think it was JP Morgan, come out and say, oh, the supply chain issue is going to be resolved here in six months from now. Why is that wrong, in your opinion? First, from a logical point of view, if printing money was the solution
Starting point is 00:07:41 for these problems, then like I said, Zimbabwe would be the richest country in the world, and every country would be doing it. And of course, that's not true. And through the ages as well, the Roman Empire died part of because the debasement of the currency, the printing of the money, the, well, it was the denarius at the time. So the silver content was diminished from 90% to 0%. And that caused big, big troubles because nobody accepted that money anymore because it was like monopoly money. So that's one. But on the other hand, the debt that the US is creating to keep the dollar going, to keep the government going, to keep everything going. And the same in Europe, by the way, but the US, of course, the reserve currency, that debt is someone else's asset. The asset can be
Starting point is 00:08:26 in the pension fund. It can be, well, most of US debt, by the way, is owned by China, right? So the China is making all this stuff for the world, for the US, earning a lot of money, but then parking that money
Starting point is 00:08:40 in the treasury bonds. So in the debt of the US government. And that debt, of course, and we all know that, right? All institutional investors know US debt will never, ever be paid off. We all know that.
Starting point is 00:08:54 But we also know there will be new debt, there will be an extra credit card, if you will, to pay off the old credit card. And as long as that goes on, that's all, that's all fine. But it cannot go on. It requires rates to keep going down. If you would increase interest rate right now, the debt would be, yeah, unserviceable. The U.S. could not pay the depth of when interest rises with the current tax income. So it's unsustainable. They have to keep rates low and keep decreasing them or the whole House of Carls will fall down. And of course, China sees that as well. Because imagine that you have all this U.S. debt and you see that the debt is printing his own money and you know it will be worth
Starting point is 00:09:36 this one day. So what will you do? You'll spend it like a madman. And you see them doing that. They buy every gold mine, every scarce commodity mine in Africa. They buy all the harbors in the Middle East, in Europe even. They buy everything with the U.S. dollars that they have, except more U.S. debt, of course. And that's a smart thing. So by printing and printing more, the U.S. is actually making China stronger and stronger every day. I'm sure the military thinkers and geopolitical thinkers will see that, but there is no alternative. So they have to keep doing it. And well, Europe is in the middle. We're watching it happen. It's a crazy movie we're watching. So when we think about your statement there that they have to keep doing this, is most of it because
Starting point is 00:10:25 You got into the government reasons of why they can't allow interest rates to go up because then it's not serviceable. But even at the individual level, if interest rates on home prices go from three to four and a half percent, like you have just obliterated your common person where most of their net worth, you go to your typical person, I don't care if it's American or somebody over in Europe, anywhere in the world. If you raise their interest rate for home prices by 100 basis points, you're going to, you basis points or 200 basis points, all of a sudden, I mean, they're just, they're getting murdered
Starting point is 00:10:59 if they're trying to move into a new house. So is it the net worth of the individual being tied up? So much of it being tied up in the value of their house and that basically being their net worth that interest rates just cannot afford to go up in any type of meaningful way for any type of meaningful amount of time. Well, I think it's two things. It has to do with that. If you make that broad are the wealth effect. The Federal Reserve is always talking about the wealth effect with households. And of course, the house is the biggest asset mostly. But the more well-to-do people, of course, also have the equities portfolios. If you raise interest rates, everything of value will be discounted, discounting there's higher interest rates and the value goes down. So a very easy way
Starting point is 00:11:43 for the US Central Bank to play this wealth effect and to make US households think that they're rich and can spend in the economy is to decrease interest rates and increase all the asset prices, the houses, the real estate portfolio, the equity portfolios and bond portfolios. And people feel wealthy and buy stuff and the economy keeps going. Of course, that's the other way around when you raise interest rates. Everything goes down. It will crash the stock market, for sure. It will mathematically, and by definition, take the bond prices down.
Starting point is 00:12:16 So portfolios, pension funds, everything will go down and we will really, state in D2. But I think the more direct thing is the U.S. government itself. It needs the money to pay its employees. I don't know the exact number, but it's very high. The number of people in the U.S. that are paid by the government is about 60, 17 percent. 70 percent. Seven out of 10 people are paid by the U.S. government. That's a lot of money. If they don't have the money, if they don't print the money, because they are nothing, then that all stops, right, with the whole story with the debt ceiling. So they just raised the debt and a debt ceiling and can print more money again. But who's going to pay that? The world right now is okay with that.
Starting point is 00:12:57 But there will be a point. And the Roman Empire crossed that point. There will be a point that people do not accept the US dollar anymore. Well, I think it's even beyond just the US dollar. I mean, this is a global phenomenon. I'm looking at a post by a guy this morning out of Germany and he's talking about the ECB pours more fuel on the inflation. fire with its bond purchases. ECB balance sheet rose by another $25 billion. It hit a fresh all-time high of $8.3 trillion ECB total assets now equating the 77% of Eurozone GDP versus the Fed's 37%. Like, they're all in trouble. They're all doing this. And I think this is where so many of the history books are hard for people to do a parody to what we're seeing today is you had mentioned
Starting point is 00:13:45 Zimbabwe, right? Those scenarios in the past were these one-off domestic, one-nation state-type hyperinflation event and not anything that's ever happened globally, collectively, all at the same time. And I think that we're seeing the latter. And if it's all happening to everybody simultaneously, it's really hard to see because it's almost like you're in a car going down the highway going 70 miles an hour and you look to your right, you can't see any backdrop, right? All you can see is the car next to you and it's going 70 miles an hour and it appears that neither one of you are moving. Every car we're looking at is like, oh, it's just standing still because we're not seeing any type of backdrop. But Bitcoin's the backdrop, right?
Starting point is 00:14:30 Yeah, Bitcoin, real estate, all the hard assets. Yeah, I fully agree with you. This is what is going on and this can go on and on gradually, you know, central banks. cars are going faster. Faster and faster. We're going 150 now down the highway. 160, 170. But this can end very abruptly. If we look back in history,
Starting point is 00:14:52 this can end in a year or two years. It's all gone. Because right now, some people see this. The Chinese see this. And they're hedging. They're buying hard stuff. They're buying commodity mines, gold mines, cobald mines,
Starting point is 00:15:05 lithium, they're buying harbors. They're buying infrastructure, geopolitical, important infrastructure. investors like you and me buy real estate, Bitcoin, of course. Buy the goods, that's what the governments are telling us. Buy the goods. And that's why real estate and housing prices are rising as well. So people see this.
Starting point is 00:15:27 People are hedging and more and more. And then comes to the point of no return because it's a very slippery slope. When it goes, it goes. I've seen it so many times in my career, for example, with the introduction of the euro as well. The reason why the UK was not in the euro, and by the way, they're out of the European Union as well now, of course, after the Brexit, but they were not in the euro because they were pushed out of the bands that they had to make to be allowed to enter because they were pushed out by Soros first, the investor, and all the other investors that saw that England or the UK was not able to meet the criteria. If it's fundamentally wrong, they just push it and push it and they leverage. and they push it out. And then that's the same thing as right now that people with, they don't accept negative interest rates.
Starting point is 00:16:15 They start looking for other stuff, other stores of value, if you will. And the same with us. We Bitcoin investors for a reason. And even further, I mean, Satoshi Nakamoto saw this, right? The debasement by central banks and the solution, Bitcoin was made as a solution for debasement. He was very, very clear about it. So it's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:16:36 And I think it will be going faster. The crumbling of the empire and the money that we're using today, it will go. The final decline will go faster than we think. I got a question on that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I thought so. You know where I'm going with this, right? Yeah. So based on that comment, your model fails. Right? Yeah, that's true. Adam Beck had a very nice tweet about that, not the tweet from about that stock to formal model. Oh, I want to talk about that. No, I'm serious. I'm dead serious. I like that. But the one earlier about where he compared it with Asimov trilogy, the Foundation trilogy, written by Asimov. Fantastic story. Fantastic. Must read books. And yes, you could say the
Starting point is 00:17:26 stock to flow will be killed by when the dollar falls. You could also say that the stock to flow model is actually predicting the fall of the US dollar. And it gives a time frame as well. for that. Because the Stock to Flow model uses the Bitcoin price denominated in dollars. So, as we all do, right? I mean, the Bitcoin prices in dollars. But it's also making an assumption that you won't have a contagion of fear on the dollar or whatever fiat currency, right? I think that's a little different. I think it's not making that assumption explicitly, of course, maybe implicitly, but I think it's like this. And that's why I like the stock to flow X model more than the stock to flow model. If we look at the stores of value that in this weird macroeconomic environment
Starting point is 00:18:17 we're living right now with negative interest rates and quantity of easing going through the roof, if we look at that, the stores of value that are available, then real estate is the biggest one. It's about 100 trillion US dollars. Globally, its stock to flow is about 100. And it's the number one store of value that people around me at least use as a, store to put their value in. They just buy extra houses and rent them or Airbnb or whatever. So that's number one. The second store value, of course, is gold with the stock to flow of 60 and a value of 10 trillion US dollars. There's, of course, equities and bonds, all in the 100 trillion range. But if we look at the stock to flow X model for Bitcoin, Bitcoin is 55 now, stock to flow
Starting point is 00:19:00 ratio, and the values around the 1 trillion. So it's much smaller than real estate. It's much smaller than gold still. But the good thing about that stock to flow X model is that we do not have to extrapolate, like all the other models, extrapolate into the future that we do not know. No, the stock to flow is stock to flow ratio on the X axis and value on the Y axis. There is no time element. It's not a time series. It's just gold, real estate, Bitcoin, silver and diamonds. And we can interpolate that model. So we know what a stock to flow 100 asset is valued at. It's the real estate market. We know what a 60 stock to flow ratio value asset is value at.
Starting point is 00:19:43 It's that's $10 trillion. That's gold. So I think that hyper-bitrination scenario that we were talking about, breaking the model, is after that stock-to-flow-100 ratio. So in my point of view, the dollar will die. The empire will crumble after stock-to-flow 100 for Bitcoin. that's sort of where it all goes wrong. And where, well, the model fails,
Starting point is 00:20:06 but maybe the denominator of all valuable things fails. We have to replace the dollar by, I don't know, gold, Bitcoin maybe, or something else. Maybe there's a new world reserve currency at that time, like the SDR. You can't believe that. Well, they're working on it, right? They're trying. That's the alternative. I mean, it requires trust.
Starting point is 00:20:30 I mean, there's, I don't see how that could. I mean, I'm with you. It's an option, but I think when the world's comparing it to something that does not require any type of trust, that is just being supplied in such a decentralized kind of way, I don't know how somebody would choose that over what we're describing there. Well, but that's the big battle we're seeing at the moment. The big battle is between math and thermodynamic certainties, Bitcoin, if you will, the best money ever theoretically and mathematically and the powers that be, right, that want to protect what they have, because they're going to lose it all, right? Or a lot of it. So, yeah, it's a political power game with the most
Starting point is 00:21:11 powerful countries and armies in the world and central banks against a mathematical, physical, thermodynamics, optimal solution. So, yeah, I don't know who wins, but it sounds like the church at the time saying the earth was flat and some weird mathematicians saying the Earth is round. And in the end, of course, the optimal solution wins. The truth wins, but it can be a lot of war and nasty times in between. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo
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Starting point is 00:25:40 That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right. Back to the show. The one thing that I would push back on, or I don't even know if I'm pushing back, But when you're comparing all these different stock to flow levels, like you were talking about real estate is whatever the number was. And then you're comparing it to gold. And then you're talking, well, Bitcoin will eventually be at this stock to flow at this point in time based on what the math is showing us. The thing that I don't think is a comparison when you're saying Bitcoin compared to real estate, real estate is not fungible in a way that you can take ownership of that real estate, like physically take ownership of that real estate. in a fungible kind of way and in a way where you're getting small units that you can then go spend at a Starbucks to buy coffee. And I think that difference that we're talking about a currency or something that performs
Starting point is 00:26:35 like a currency but is actual like gold in your pocket that you can spend like currency, I think puts a different level of adoption and demand for adoption than you would see with owning real estate. As we're going through this transition, you were describing it earlier with China, they're buying anything that has scarcity to it as soon as they can with the dollars they're receiving because of it's going to retain their buying power as whatever this thing is that's transitioning takes place. And on the other side, that buying power is still going to be there for whatever the scarce thing is that they purchased. This goes for anybody on the individual level, country level, whatever. But I really think that we're going to eventually get to a
Starting point is 00:27:19 where there's going to be so much demand for people to store their buying power in this thing that is everything and is nothing. And whether the stock to flow is slightly above real estate or slightly above gold, I think you're just going to get to a point where there's just total fomo of, I can't store $10 billion worth of buying power in this bond anymore as it's yielding negative whatever percent. Like, I just see that whole fixed income, $200, $300 trillion worth of buying power today, just evaporating and getting sucked in like a black hole. And it's just going to send the curve just in a parabolic kind of direction.
Starting point is 00:28:03 I agree. I fully agree. Real estate is not fungible and it's not portable either. Yeah. So on all those dimensions, Bitcoin is the better money. On the other hand, the only thing where we defer, I guess, is the timing of the events. So yes, the dollar will die. Made every reserve currency dies, right? It's a certainty. So there will be something new, something better. But when is that happening? It's the same
Starting point is 00:28:28 question as the super cycle. Are we entering the super cycle now or later? I think the super cycle will be there. It's inevitable, but not now. I think it will happen after next halving, if you will, after the stock to flow of bitcoins will be higher than gold and higher. higher than real estate, because until that point of a stock to flow of 100, real estate will, for whatever reason, be the preferred asset, as we're seeing right now. I'm seeing around me, people put more money in real estate, like hundreds of millions. BlackRock, for example, is buying the entire city of Amsterdam, because those companies and their money right now is with old people. The real estate and the gold, the physical world and not the digital world.
Starting point is 00:29:13 The digital scarcity is a next generation thing. So I think it will happen. But I also see in my own model that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and value. And I agree that is one of the dimensions of money. Frangibility is the other one. Portability is another one. Divisibility is another one. That's also very problematic with houses, divisibility. But scarcity is the, in my view, the most important factor, causing that linear relationship
Starting point is 00:29:42 and causing people to put more money in real estate now. that will change once next to the visibility, fungibility, portability. Also, the scarcity of Bitcoin will be better than real estate. So my guess would be, we're probably going into that question right now. So are we going into this phomboly scenario right now or next year, the year after? Or are we going to drop 80% first, have a big war with the powers that be, the central banks, the US dollar, et cetera, et cetera, and go into that hyperbolic scenario or a US dollar scenario, if you will, where Bitcoin is the best sort of value after the next half.
Starting point is 00:30:28 So say, 2024, 28, that will be the period or maybe a little bit after that. Let's say somewhere between 2024 and 2032, yes, I think we both agree that will be this hyperbolic scenario. Bitcoin will be by far the best asset physically, the next. mathematically, mathematically, above all other. But the powers that be with the largest armies, the biggest balance sheets, and all the political power, they will fight. They will fight till the death. When you're saying that, I don't know that that's what we've seen, though, to date. It's kind of interesting, and I've been a little bit surprised by the reaction that we've seen in the last six months for proof of work specifically. I was expecting a bigger battle on that front. And we're not
Starting point is 00:31:14 seeing it, especially here in the States, like it's actually, there's some states that are very pro, proof of work, bring your mining rigs here and start harvesting as much of this energy as you want kind of activities. And it's kind of surprised me quite a bit. Yeah, me too. That was hopeful. But it was a big battle, right? I mean, China banning all mining, the network losing 50%. Amazing. And the value, by the way, right? The value of Bitcoin losing 50%. We went from over 60K to under 30K in a month. So people that think we cannot see another minus 80% crash, think again. Because we just had a minus 50% crash caused by a very tiny little battle.
Starting point is 00:31:56 This was a full-scale war of countries coordinating. This was just China doing its thing again. Yeah, well, China is now played out. It's not a factor anymore because they gave up their most strategic asset. I just saw today literally this, right before we started recording this, that the United States now has the most hash rate of any country in the world. And I think it's around 35% or something like that of the hash rates now in the United States.
Starting point is 00:32:25 Yeah, I saw that too. And like you said, there's some very innovative and forward-thinking states in the U.S. There is also some very backward thinking and dumb states in the U.S. So true, so true. It's almost like there will be a new revolution or what is that, a civil war, but not the north and south, the east and west coast versus the center or something. It's very interesting to see that diversibility in states in the U.S. How about in Europe as far as mining goes and proof of work, the acceptance of that politically?
Starting point is 00:33:00 Europe is under the regime of the central banks. So the European Central Bank, Lagardeau, and the presidents before that. But they are very, very much against Bitcoin and discouraging banks and institutional investors from investing in it. They're punishing it with severe capital regimes. You have to hold capital one to one for each Bitcoin investment. And they're pushing it in the criminal corner, right? They're anti-money laundering, know your customer.
Starting point is 00:33:29 They're trying to kill it. On the capitalization piece there, the one to one, I'd listen to an interview with Caitlin long and she was like, because it clears so. fast, relative to the legacy system, which, you know, adjudicates the books at nighttime each day, a one-to-one ratio is, in her opinion, she actually thought it was warranted. In fact, she thought maybe may even require more than that because the, because there's not some type of stable coin that immediately clears next to it. So there's these, these banks that have this on their books and they're not capitalized in a manner that they've, that they've been
Starting point is 00:34:04 de-ricks by not having enough, you know, capitalization behind it. Yeah, yeah, I think that's, that's true. I mean, it's not an unfair point to make from the central banks at all because the implied volatility of Bitcoin, of course, is 100%. Around 100% can be higher. So discouraging leverage, if you will, of a Bitcoin position, because that, that is, of course, what banks are doing normally. They have their pension money from other people or saving bank savings from other people that they put next to their, well, three, four, five percent of equity into all those assets. And you should not do that with Bitcoin because you will be wiped out and end the money of your customers with it. So it's not an unfair point. But I don't know.
Starting point is 00:34:47 Maybe, maybe there, there is hope, of course, and the truth will always win. The earth is round and not flat like the church used to say. But there will be, I see a lot of pushback from, Well, the SEC kind of okayish now with Gary Gansler. But, well, the infrastructure bill thing, the Senate, the Fed, Yellen, the Congress. I think there is a lot of voices that, of course, are bank subsidized voices, right? Those politicians, they are all captured or linked to bank. For example, Yellen, the central bank, she gets a lot of money for speeches from, for all the banks. And of course she's there for the banks. The central bank is for the banks. They will fight hard. That's what their mission is. So, yeah, there is hope, there is states. There is
Starting point is 00:35:40 the truth, of course, but there's also the powers that be. And yeah, I'm prepared for the next battle. I really think we're going to see AI top first, because right now the scarcity is so enormously the supply shortage, the lack of sellers on chain, right? Not on the exchanges, but it's is so enormous and growing. This will come to a point where the old-time high will be, maybe somewhere next year. But after that, I expect the central banks and their governments and the banks to come in, knock it down again, minus 80 percent, after which there will be a new equilibrium that has to be found. And that might be, that might be the foundation for the new world, if you will, the Bitcoin world, the hyper-bitconization. But that will be
Starting point is 00:36:26 2024, 2032, something around that period. I don't think that the argument is for these people that the stock the FOMO, I think the name of this is hilarious. I think for that crowd, I don't know that they're necessarily trying to say that that, if you even want to call it a model, is based on any type of mathematics or anything. I think all that they're putting out is that this thing ends with a hyperbolic push, right? The timing, who knows? It could be, like you said, the timeframe.
Starting point is 00:36:56 that you threw out there. I don't think anybody's trying to model when the bend or the hyperbolic phase of it goes. I think all they're really saying, and maybe I'm missing, I have no idea. I don't even know who's behind it. I don't think that they're trying to time it. I think they're just trying to say that this is how this ends. To be honest, I haven't taken a good look at it. Yeah, I interpreted it as a meme as a joke to bash his stock to flow. I don't see it as bashing it at all. I really don't. It's called stock to FOMO, and the only input there is time. It's basically a nonlinear time model. Yeah. So it has nothing to do with stock or two or FOMO. It is a time model. You've got to leverage the brand if you're going to get it out there. It also looks like my model
Starting point is 00:37:41 a bit, right? With that cars. It's like the rainbow model, but then rebranded. I like this bashing and this meming, but don't take it too serious, right? I think there's a lot of merit to the idea that it is going to end that way. But who knows when the timing is? The timing could be faster than what either one of us really kind of expect. But who knows what the heck's going to happen? I mean, emotions can get crazy. And if you get a few whales that manage massive bond tranches or whatever,
Starting point is 00:38:12 that really starts, this really starts to click for them as to where this is all going, who knows what can take place? You have a couple more El Salvador's that enter the fold. and then you've got every small country in the world that's been a victim of these policies for decades. I guess that's my next question for you, is at what price point do we see more El Salvador's enter the fold? Like, is it $5 trillion market cap in Bitcoin that we start seeing five other nation states that say, hey, we've got remittance problems here as well. I think we're going to do the exact same thing that appears to be working really well in El Salvador here,
Starting point is 00:38:50 in our country. That's a tough one. I don't know. Actually, it amazes me that there's not a next El Salvador yet because the benefits are so obvious. And of course, it takes a lot of courage, right, to do it. But it's been done. Now there's a template.
Starting point is 00:39:06 But compare El Salvador to micro strategy a lot. Because like, you know, Michael Saylor, the CEO and owner of. Nobody else has done it. Yeah. Yeah. But he has like total full power over the company. He doesn't have like other big shareholders. Well, some, of course, but he has the voting right.
Starting point is 00:39:26 So he can do it with his small company, right? Microsoft is not Google, it's not Amazon. So he can do it. And so it had to be a micro strategy kind of company that went full Bitcoin and put Bitcoin on the balance sheet. And the same with El Salvador. I wouldn't expect the Netherlands, which is also small, by the way, or Europe or US to do it. But a small country with a leader that has almost all the power.
Starting point is 00:39:50 Yeah, they can do that. And like hedge funds, by the way, right? I mean, banks and pension funds are under the regime of the central banks. Hatch funds are much in a much looser regime because they don't play with other people's money or not with their banking or pension money, but with high risk money. So they can do it more easily or family office. They can go into Bitcoin, not banks, not pension funds easily. So, yeah, I really expected another country to enter already.
Starting point is 00:40:19 And maybe what we're seeing in Brazil, that's very interesting, right? Brazil is, I don't think it's legal tender like in El Salvador. Moria Portuguese is not that well. Can't read the official stuff. But if that becomes legal, at least, and supported by the government, that's a big thing because Brazil has over 200 million population. So that's two-third of the U.S. It's a really big country.
Starting point is 00:40:46 If they go, that's a big thing. or Africa. Africa is another continent that would benefit hugely because they're under the regime of the IMF at the moment there. They got their blood sucked out every day by the IMF, by more depth and depth and depth. So they could do the El Salvador thing. And I think Nigeria or some country, yeah, I think it was Nigeria is well the way to do what El Salvador did. I mean, if the price runs the 100,000, everyone in the world is going to be looking at Al-Solvada. Salvador saying maybe we should be doing what those guys are doing. Yeah, on the other end, 100,000, you can better do it now at 50,000 than later at 100 or 200,000. It's certainly one of the
Starting point is 00:41:32 things that I'm watching like a hawk, how these, the countries that are most suffering from IMF, how they're acting. Very interesting, even more interesting than the ETF maybe. So that was where I was going next. So is that even important? Yeah, very important. It's very important. I think that will, for us, it's like, well, you can Bitcoin now. Why would I do it through an ETF and pay a one or two percent service fee? But for pops and moms and people that don't want to hassle with keys. Here in the U.S., you can already go and buy GBTC. I mean, we know it's not the best vehicle, but it's there for somebody if you got a TD Ameritrade account or whatever. But like you say, it's not the best vehicle. I think people with a lot of money, but maybe all, the people that don't have the digital know-how and I think the whole key thing is a bit scary, which it is. The old people will need put millions or tens of millions in some vehicle
Starting point is 00:42:27 that's not as good as ETF. It has like 24-hour prices or listed prices, right, and not end-of-the-day sort of food-do calculated prices. It's much more transparent and much more legal protection. ETF is really a thing. I think that would open the market for also a lot of banks and companies to advertise and publish this investment to their worth of client. Okay, so back to a comment we were talking about earlier about the May drop and China taking the hash power offline. Now that we can kind of look at this like Monday morning quarterback reviewing the tapes, was that drop really kind of induced by the big hashing migration? Or was there something else that you're seeing in the data or information that you think was
Starting point is 00:43:17 was important through that period of time that caused that. What do you think was the root cause? Interesting. I think the China thing was the bigger thing because all those miners, of course. And all those miners had to relocate to the U.S. or to Afghanistan or all the countries around China. And that costs money to put the miners in containers to fly them over to America. That costs money. So they had to sell bitcoins. And I think there was a lot of fear as well that China would go even further and not only ban mining, but also possessing or trading Bitcoins. So the fear was high that the government would ban further. And I guess some Chinese people, miners as well, were selling at that moment. So yeah, no, I think that that was. But the other thing,
Starting point is 00:44:02 of course, there was this Elon Musk tweet thing going on at the same time. Tons of long leverage. That was the third thing I would like to mention. The leverage was enormous. And of course, Bitcoin is, If you leverage Bitcoin, if you leverage by Bitcoin, will be killed by the exchanges. Your position is known by the exchanges. You probably have a stop loss put in there to quote unquote protect yourself, but that same stop loss is visible to all the exchanges. It will kill you. They will push it through the stop loss levels and liquidate an entire group of leverage
Starting point is 00:44:39 longs or leveraged shorts. And then the whole casino goes again. Is there offices dedicated to that specific trade that you just described? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I do it myself as well. You can see the order books, right? You can buy the order book information from some exchanges. So you know where most people, and it's mostly around numbers.
Starting point is 00:45:01 So they never put their stop loss at 59.99. They always put it at 60,000 or something. So, yeah, does people get killed? Yeah, it's a tragic thing. But yeah, that was going on as well during the crash in, what was it, May, June. And all those leverage longs, all those people that thought the hyperbolic phase was already going on because Tesla was in El Salvador was coming. All those people were killed. Of course, if you just bought Bitcoin Spot price, a captain in gold storage, you went through a minus 50% drop, but you're back about the same levels as was what it was at that time right now, right?
Starting point is 00:45:41 at 55 or where are we. So never, ever leverage your Bitcoin buys. That would be my, really my, advice, not financial advice, of course, but for the nubes. Don't do it. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why VANTA is a game changer. VANTA automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI-powered platform. So whether you're prepping for a SOC 2 or running an enterprise GRC program, VANTA keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving. Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, VANTA gives you continuous automation across more than 35 security
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Starting point is 00:49:10 slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. One of the things I wanted to talk to you about. So recently I've been, you know, I set up my own full node and I've been opening channels on lightning, adding liquidity into the lightning network and just learning. Like, just this process has been just amazing, just like seeing how it all works.
Starting point is 00:49:32 And in the process of doing this and just opening these channels and then trying to strategically think about like, all right, should I open a channel to this node because they have a thousand channels that they're connected to. And then how much capacity or how much how much Bitcoin should I lock in that channel strategically? And is there money to be made here in a fee kind of way in the future? Obviously not today because the fees are just like if you're doing it for the fees today, you're doing it not for the right reasons. But when I'm thinking about this long term, and I think about more El Salvador's coming online and the transaction throughput that's going to be going through these rails in every direction, that velocity of money that would be going through these pipes could potentially be a risk-free rate in the future. I'm curious, if you've opened any channels, because I know you run your own full note, have you opened any channels? What are your thoughts on this idea of locking Bitcoin into channels for a,
Starting point is 00:50:32 price appreciation on layer one. What are your thoughts on the, I know this is like a three-part question, but what are your thoughts on this risk-free rate idea of the fees that would be collected on layer two, lightning being that becoming that standard someday? To be honest, I have not done much with lightning to date. So I read the white paper, understood it. I think it's a great concept. It will work. But I try to do a lightning. wallet. I don't even know which one it was last year. I failed because that was with the, there was this on Twitter that you could have, was it donations or something. People could donate some money and then pay bottle, bottle pay, I don't know, but it was in lightning. And I thought,
Starting point is 00:51:17 well, there was a couple hundred bucks in there. I'll collect it. Just see how that works. I never made it. I didn't succeed in doing it. So I guess it's a lot easier right now. Yeah, it's way easier if you have the right software. Yeah. Yeah. So it's probably like running. a Bitcoin node, which is also very easy, but once you know what to do. But no, I haven't found the time to do it. And yes, I'm running my own note and we're doing most of my time now is allocated to crunching that data and searching for patterns and making algorithmic trading bots that scout the market for quote-unquote arbitrage opportunities, statistical arbitrage, of course. And that's where most of my time is allocated at the moment, together with that, by the way,
Starting point is 00:51:59 a great team of programmers and ones growing fast and the opportunities are enormous. Even the cash and carry, which is low at the moment gives you like 10% per year, which is phenomenal if you look at the minus 1.5% in Europe at the moment.
Starting point is 00:52:16 So we're arbitrageing those fiat, Bitcoin. You're going after real yields. You don't want to talk about 0.001%. Nah. Yields by opening channels online. And for people that are listening, Those like the yields in opening channels on the Lightning Network.
Starting point is 00:52:34 I'm doing it. I'm having a lot of fun. You are not doing this for the money. At least today, you're not doing it for the money. I'm just curious whether you think that that could maybe mature into something in the future. Yeah, I do.
Starting point is 00:52:47 And I think Jack Muller is doing fantastic stuff, right? Yeah, it's unreal. And of course, there's the El Salvador connection as well. Strike is not yet available in Europe. So we're sort of waiting for that. I understand why he chooses to put other countries first on the list, by the way. So I think that chapter is opening once strike is open here and there's more shops accepting it, etc. Or maybe it's just the inertia in myself that I know how to do Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:53:17 I really have to learn. And I'm learning every day about a fiat Bitcoin arbitrage and on-chain stuff that is possible, which is an entire world. You can spend 24 hours a day there. So I haven't found the time, but I really do think that the level two stuff, and not only lightning, by the way, also liquid and the programming layer,
Starting point is 00:53:39 the rootstock, is very, very interesting. And certainly next level stuff that Bitcoin needs, stuff will happen there. But I guess, and I'll be very honest there, that takes new people like Jack Mullers to front run that. I don't see myself as having a role. or having the expertise there to, yeah, to lead that or bring that forward. I think other people have to rise and make that happen.
Starting point is 00:54:04 This was a question that came from Twitter. I'm curious to hear your response. Would you ever reveal yourself? No, I don't think so. The insanity on Twitter has conditioned you to realize that you don't ever want to do that, right? Well, it's funny because having a second. virtual persona is really interesting because you can say things that you would normally not say. You're enjoying that. I'm really enjoying my job's institutional investor and certainly in the
Starting point is 00:54:39 structure's finance area that I was in with a legal and economical background. It's like we're doing the wet works for the banks, the dirty stuff. It's always in the shadows. It's always, it's not in the spotlights. So the board is saying this, but we're structuring deals, making investments and through a lot of SPVs. So I'm used to being in the dark working at night and not be in the spotlight. And now with 100 trillion Plan B's thing, I'm doing interviews like we're doing right now. Channels are blocked because of the stuff, the words that I'm saying are dangerous and harmful. People are getting mad because I said something. the whole online thing is both.
Starting point is 00:55:27 You got Snoop Dog following you. Snoop Dog is following me, yeah, with this 20 million followers. There's actually 30 people following me with more than a million followers themselves. My reach is getting, it's getting crazy, actually. What did I do? It's only a model, a linear model, for Christ's sake. Well, I understand the institutional background brings some new views, and maybe interesting stuff, but the one million followers, come on. It's crazy. But I like it,
Starting point is 00:55:57 but I have to get used to it as well. So all the compliment, the man, the myth, the legend, that's all very, very nice to hear. But there's also a lot of, when the model goes wrong, it will go wrong. There will be a month that I miss. Watch those same people, well, not those, but other people take me down, like nothing happened before. So I'm very aware of that. So I want to. If you don't have haters, you're not doing anything. Yeah, right.
Starting point is 00:56:29 And then it's, that's okay, right? People not agreeing or even bashing and all the, that's part of the online presence. But I'm all the spammers, all the scammers. Oh, my God. It is crazy. I mean, I get all those people that are scammed, right? They think because they're scammed because they think it's me. It's not me.
Starting point is 00:56:47 And then they lose their money and they come complaining with me. So I get all those complainers and people that are scammed. It's not something I was prepared for. I think it's one of my best choices in my life to keep the virtual presence and the real-life persona different. In the beginning, I thought that was hindering me because I could not go to conferences. I could not have my face in the interviews. go, you just can't talk. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I might have gone already.
Starting point is 00:57:19 There you go. Hey, I like that. I like that. I'm there already. I don't think I will be go public ever. I think it's more probable that I will go dark one day. Well, one of the things I'm really struggling with right now. I said it in the podcast as well.
Starting point is 00:57:35 I have my online, my own chain indicators. So they are from data of my own node. You can get the blocks, get the transaction. You can see when the latest transactions were, if it's from big addresses, small addresses. You can see all sorts of stuff. And you can cluster. You can see what kind of transactions are taking place. You know, the other thing is, I don't ask money for anything, the tweets or the articles
Starting point is 00:58:00 or interviews, whatever. I do it because I like it. And I earn my money with investing. I'm an investor, right? The money works from me. And so there's a bit of a dilemma about, for example, the floor indicator that's very successful at the moment, nating the 47 and 43 and maybe the 63K this month. And the on-chain stuff that people are asking about, how do you calculate it and can I find it on Glass Node?
Starting point is 00:58:26 No, you can't. But that's the stuff that I earn my money with. So that's proprietary. That's that sort of, I don't want to disclose that. I have three kinds of models, right? As you know, right, the stock to flow model, which is fundamental, which is more like a very rough thing that says scarce assets, scarce stores of value that are recognized the stores of value, are worth more than less scarce assets. Yeah, it's very logical. It's everybody knows that and it's sort of quantifying that very, very roughly. I publish that. The on chain stuff is, wow, that's a unique thing for Bitcoin to have that data available and crunching the 400 gigs of data is not an easy task. So it's very interesting thing to do. And you find stuff. You find stuff.
Starting point is 00:59:13 But that's great for tops and bottoms, in my opinion. And then the floor model is the third model that I use. And I talk about it in a bit. But together with those three models, I can sort of triangulate the market. Right. It's not like, oh, Stock the Flow says this. No, Stock to Flow and on chain and floor model. They all say the same thing. And that gives me extra confidence, if you Well, opening up about the on-chain stuff and the floor model that brings me in a difficult position because that I open up the trade secrets and that impacts my earnings, right? And since I don't have a newsletter or anything else, that makes me any money anymore. So that's a bit of a problem.
Starting point is 00:59:53 But the floor model, not on-chain, it's not stock-to-flow, it's pure price. So it's a sort of technical analysis thing, you could say. It's price. But it's a mathematical thing. It's capturing a classical error, mathematical error, that it's not Bitcoin related at all. I won't disclose it right now. Well, it's just interesting that you have a model. I know that you're posting charts as to what that floor price is.
Starting point is 01:00:20 I'm curious what it is right now, because I don't know. Exactly. And I can't tell you exactly what it is, but it's a mathematical thing. It's just another way of looking at the same price data that everybody is looking at. We all know the moving averages, the RSIs, the, well, all the technical indicators, but they all make, in my view, a classical mathematical error that is typical to the sort of price data that Bitcoin is. The distribution of Bitcoin prices is not normal.
Starting point is 01:00:51 It's following power law. So you would like to have other kinds of metrics than the standard metrics. And it's making use of that error, if you will. The whole world is looking at the standard technical analysis toolset to an asset. So they're using that standard technical analysis tool set to look at an asset that is not standard and not normal at all, but more following a power law. Yeah, you would have to look at things like fractal dimensions or Hearst components or just mentioning a few things. My generic floor model, which isn't fancy at all, but sometimes the simplicity works, right? right, is just the 200-week moving average.
Starting point is 01:01:35 Yeah. It's never penetrated the 200-week moving average. And what I also find interesting about that, it's a month shy of four years. And so if you're dealing with a four-year cycle, it's kind of interesting that you've never had the price come down and penetrate that moving average. Yeah, and it always goes up. And it always goes up since inception. Before I had the floor, the floor model is the next generation, 200 weeks moving average.
Starting point is 01:02:02 Before I had the floor model, I had the 200 weeks moving average, exactly for the reason that you mentioned. It's flawless, but it's, of course, very simple, very, very rude or rough. It gets the job done. It gets the job done, but it can be done much more eloquently and much more tightly because it's not very tight, right? No, yeah. Oh, yeah. Most of the time, it's nowhere close to it. The floor model is also very simple.
Starting point is 01:02:29 If you see it, you would laugh at it, but it works. beautifully. It's almost like the Stock to Flow model. But yeah. So let's see if it hits the 63 and then God knows what happens. Because I see that every time I hit one of those marks, I get like 50,000 followers in a day. Keep crushing it, man.
Starting point is 01:02:49 Love having you on the show. Love these conversations. You've got a website, Plan BTC, where everything's curated as far as, and that's the right domain, correct? Plan BTC. Absolutely. And if people want to see your past interviews, they want to see some of your writings on Stock the Flow or anything else that you've published, it's all on there, it's curated on there. What else do you have? Do you have any other handoffs for people? Maybe the whole banning of YouTube thing make me aware that I need other channels of communication in case of emergency, right? If I'm canceled, if the $100 trillion U.S. dollar account on Twitter is deleted with the push of a button, then I need to be able to communicate. to you. And of course, Preston, we know each other. And I have my other friends with direct lines
Starting point is 01:03:38 that could communicate my new handle. Yeah. But yeah, so I've been thinking about that. And the planbTC.com website, of course, can be very useful in such an emergency event. As most of you have seen, I also introduced the other account of 100 trillion euro account on Twitter. That's Louisa at 100 trillion years. Louise is my CEO. Luis is my CEO. She's managing all the business lines that are under the Plan B brand and helps me with planning and managing all that stuff. So she'll be functional as well as being the backup channel in communicating in case of emergency.
Starting point is 01:04:16 If case, well, something I said, maybe today, Preston, in your podcast, causes somebody to push the button and cancel me. What was my response when you reached out to me and said, hey, Pomp just got canceled on YouTube. Are you sure you want to do the interview with me? What was my response? Hell yeah, I think it was. Hell yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:40 Please cancel me. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Dude, always a pleasure. Always a pleasure. Pleasure is mine. Thanks, Preston. If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use.
Starting point is 01:04:54 Just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin-specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I'd love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable, if you can leave a review, we would really appreciate that. And it's something that helps others find the interview in the search algorithm. So anything you can do to help out with a review, we would just greatly appreciate. And with that, thanks for listening, and I'll catch you again next week.
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