We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC049: Willy Woo & Bitcoin On-Chain Data Analysis (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey, everyone. Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the podcast where we're talking about Bitcoin. Today's guest is Mr. Willie Wu, who's a renowned investor and trader in the Bitcoin space. In addition to that, Willie has some incredible analysis for on-chain data and overall metrics that have become staples for assessing bull and bare trends. On today's show, we talk about many of those metrics and Willie's overall sentiment for what's to come in the following quarters. So, without further delay, here's my conversation with the one and only, Mr. Willie Wu.

Starting point is 00:00:33 You're listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. All right, so like I said in the introduction, I'm here with Willie Wu. Willie, welcome back to the show. Hey, Preston, great to be back. All time highs, no less. All time highs. This is rare air and getting very exciting.

Starting point is 00:01:06 Hey, so I interviewed Plan B last week. And the thing that I really captured from the conversation with him, and of course, all the questions that people had for you on Twitter relate back to this cycle that we're currently in, and is it the last cycle and plan B last week? We were kind of having a detailed conversation about that idea. And the thing that he brought up that I thought was a really interesting point was he was saying that when we look at the various stock to flow levels of these various assets, and he's looking at where Bitcoin is on this cycle and where it's going to go in the cycle after, after

Starting point is 00:01:43 we go through another halving event and how it steps up to a much higher stock to flow than where we're at in the current cycle. And he's comparing it to real estate. His argument is real estate still has a higher stock to flow. And real estate is something that everybody on the planet naturally understands just because it's something that's tangible, it's something they're familiar with. And maybe that's why it might take longer because most people that are trying to preserve their buying power, they're stuffing it into scarce things like real estate and bidding those types of prices before maybe they go all in with Bitcoin. I'm curious to hear your point of view because I know that you have been on the podcast circuit for maybe the last

Starting point is 00:02:28 half year saying that you think that there's a potential for this to be the final cycle. Now, this Dr. Floshaura, its numbers are based on the halving on that four year. But if you were to kind of take the overall picture, it's essentially using the scarcity metric of this asset to value it. And of course, that scarcity is changing. It's changing every day. And most predominantly it's changing every four year harvening. And it's stepwise, right? But like if you zoom out, it's just like you pick a level at any point and this is the scarcity.

Starting point is 00:03:02 of the asset and this is the price level that predicts, right? So it's kind of second order. It's like a second order influence, the four-year thing. It's really the scarcity, the scarcity at any time in that zone that I think like it measures or it tries to predict. And it's not a demand and supply model, right? It's a scarcity model. You look at it and it's a scarcity. So So when we look at, like a lot of what I do is look at the demand and supply. If I'm looking at that, those numbers and just on a back of the envelope kind of scribble of numbers, you can see that the dynamics change. It's like we used to have supply coming in from the miners, which we still do, but that's

Starting point is 00:03:50 changed because now in 2020 onwards we've got a much more sophisticated, complex ecosystem. miners are now not selling their coins, they're becoming public companies. They're raising through capital markets to huddle their coins because their investors want to expose the asset, not have it, you know, sold. So that's changing. Willie, when did you see that transition really kind of play out at the start of 2021, would you say that the miners are now just taking out Fiat loans? I think so.

Starting point is 00:04:23 I think with Michael Saylor popularizing the idea of Bitcoin, as an investable asset class within investors inside the equity markets. I think that's opened the door. And, you know, just looking at the filing numbers and the report, so it looks like that started to happen in 2018, the first kind of companies that were listing, maybe even before that. But, yeah, so there's that side of it. And that's just on the mining, the mining.

Starting point is 00:04:52 The only thing we used to look at was the mining, which was a supply. which is so that supply is slowly reducing and deviating off what the harvening would suggest. But then you've got this other side of things, which is other supply coming in from cell pressure from exchanges, right? So, for example, now we've got very, very high volume futures exchanges and they generate masses, billions and billions of dollars in fees. And some of that will be sold into cash because I'm generating it within crypto. making Bitcoin as their fee, and then they sell some of it because they've got operational

Starting point is 00:05:30 costs. So that's a new supply. And if you were to take those numbers, I was talking to an OTC on the larger desks, and obviously I've got more information because they handle some of these trades. That sell pressure is like 30% higher than the theoretical max of the 900 Bitcoin's code is being mine. This is for the ETF that you're talking right now. No, this is just the current Binances, FTX bit mixes of this world.

Starting point is 00:06:01 Wow. Right. That is already significant, probably over two times more sell pressure than the mine is selling, right? And then you take the ETF, right? And you take not even with the latest ETF that's been, you know, accepted by the ECC, but we take the gray scale, which holds 650,000 bitcoins in its trust. that charges a 2% fee. And you can look at it.

Starting point is 00:06:26 Since the premium has gone negative on it, like it hasn't added new coins into that trust. So you can actually see it slowly dropping in coins on management. And that's from the 2% fee being deducted off it and sold. And that is already 4% of the theoretical max of the mining network, right? So now you've got another 4% that on top of the exchanges. And then you've got this now futures ETF. And the futures ETF is like another thing which is extracting fees and selling. Effectively, it looks like a sell pressure.

Starting point is 00:06:59 Because if an investor comes in and buys, say, a million dollars a Bitcoin, if they go through a futures ETF, maybe they take and buy a million dollars of futures long contracts. So then the futures long contracts increases in premium of the spot. And you call that contango. Contango runs away and gets bigger and bigger. And so that creates an incentive for like a hedge fund, a delta neutral trading fund, which says, okay, I'm going to buy the spot. Since the future's ETF is not doing it, I'm going to buy it as the proxy to hold it. And then they'll sell the futures to bring that contango down because they're incentivized.

Starting point is 00:07:37 And these guys will make, you know, we saw this in early, early part of this year. They were making like 20 to 40 percent yield on their cash and carry trade, you know, hold the spot, sell a few. And like the futures ETF is really incentivizing more of that to happen. And so that guy that put in a million dollars to buy Bitcoin and the futures ETF, I need be getting 800,000, 700,000, 600,000 Bitcoin spot exposure through that. And the hedge fund and all the guys in the middle that are taking the yield out of it is really extracting the final value. And remember, this is an annual cost to hold it.

Starting point is 00:08:17 So that effectively is a cell pressure because what was bought was not bought spot. You're only buying a fraction of that. The rest goes to profit and fees. So now we've got like much bigger cell pressures than miners. Now, miners are minor. Miners are the minor cell pressure. No pun intended. So like it just does not look like the same dynamics where we had this pristine,

Starting point is 00:08:40 simple demand and supply within this network. Now we've got the full complexity of, you know, new financial system with derivative markets and so forth. And you'll see it in the chat. Ever since derivatives came on board with Bitmex really saying to ramp that volume in 2018, you can see that the shape of the chart's completely different. Gone all the parabolic, huge wicks, big ups and downs, share verticals, and it's choppy over, you know, we can have like three months of down and then we have three months of sideways

Starting point is 00:09:14 and then we might have a really hard run. And then it's just weird compared to what maybe an OG would have gotten used to over the, you know, 2010 to 2017, first seven years of Bitcoin. We're in a different era and you can see it in the price check. And so I don't think that we're going to have the same four-year cycle. If you were to think the end of the four-year cycle is a one-year bear market, like a one-year beer market, an 80% pullback. I think that that's gone. I think a lot of the FOMO gets hit on its head because you've got cell pressure coming from all of these new players. And then the underlying

Starting point is 00:09:54 demand can push it up in a rally again. And then it's kind of, it's good news in that we won't, if I'm right, have to wait through one year of 85% pullback. And so if you were to zoom out, I think we just, the chart looks like a random walk till saturation, whatever, you that is, you know, if it's 100 trillion like Plan B thinks, then it's a random walk, up down, up, down, up down. You know, and that doesn't just invalidate the stock to flow, right? It's not a demand and supply model, which is what I'm talking to here. Stock to flow just puts a number on it and says that's how much this network is valued

Starting point is 00:10:33 next to real estate, next to gold, next to silver and these other assets based on their scarcity. So, Willie, when you're saying all that, which was quite profound. found all the different angles that you're thinking about and you're seeing just through the raw data from a net basis, do you think that it's tighter than the stock to flow model that is much simpler, or do you think it's a little bit looser? It's a relative than a shorter timeframe model I look at. Like, the stock to flow, you can see it varies, right?

Starting point is 00:11:10 it's a theoretical, but it doesn't look at like the details. It doesn't look at how much is the real flow coming out because how much of that flow we thought was flow was from miners is actually now being hoddled by miners. So it doesn't take that into account. So it's much more broad brushed, but it gives you absolute numbers because it's comparing its stock to flow to with the cross-asset model, it's comparing it to gold. And so it does give you this, and with the standard model, it's comparing to the last 12 years of history or more we've had. It's getting, it gives you better absolute numbers. What I'm doing here, it gives you more relative.

Starting point is 00:11:49 Like I can say we're entering a phase now for the next six months or more of bullish numbers. And then if we're ever in a, like a beer market, I can actually get a price model that goes, okay, now we're retracing down into a demand and supply metric that we once crossed, you know, three months ago, four months ago, and we can look at how the market valued it back then and go, well, that's where it should be if the market was feeling the same way about it. And so it can give you much more precise numbers compared to stock to flow when we're down at, I guess, 35 to 40,000 a few months ago. But see, look, this whole thing's out of balance.

Starting point is 00:12:30 We're totally in balance right now with the underlying demand was huge, was like, no, everyone was bearish, yet this model was. saying we needed to get to mid-55, about 55,000, mid-50s to find balance again and retrace to the prices that the market liked to value at it back in, back a few months ago, back early 21. And, you know, all it took was the fears to be shaken off and we were quickly reverted back there. So, you know, it's useful for these shorter time things.

Starting point is 00:13:03 I find it more useful as an investor investing, you know, I'm constantly buying. and I'm sometimes selling, but mainly I'm buying, and I'm like, I need the confidence of where this thing's going to go over the next six months, rather than where it's going to go over the next four years. I think B's got some new models there that's a little bit closer to the monthly models rather than the full broad macro. But yeah, it's quite different. I think you're more able to take a position, hold it for maybe six months, and then get out. using these kind of models. It's more suited to like a swing trader, I would say, and a long-term investor who's looking to buy the dip in the best possible time. Maybe you're a CEO of a corporate and you want to enter and look good over the next six months without too much shareholder

Starting point is 00:13:55 pushback. Hey, Willie, I want to talk about a chart. And for people that are watching this on YouTube, they're going to be able to see the chart because hopefully my editors are going to have this pulled up on the screen. But describe it for people that are maybe. just listening to the audio. The title of the chart is Bitcoin long-term holder supply shock. When I'm looking at this chart, it's kind of insane because down there on the bottom where you have it listed as peak accumulation. This thing is peaking out. You're seeing some of the highest levels that you've ever had for peak accumulation. And here we are, what is it, almost a year

Starting point is 00:14:34 and a half post-having and you're seeing the highest peak accumulation number that you've ever seen on the chart, which has typically been core, you know, sequenced with big sell-offs historically or like bottom of the market during the four-year cycle. So what in the world does this mean? And just give us a little bit more context on the chart. Yeah. So, you know, there's a whole series of these metrics, which I've labeled supply shock. And this is the equivalent of on-chain demand and supply. It's an alternative to stop-to-flow. It's an on-chain model.

Starting point is 00:15:11 And we're looking on-chain for different ways in which to measure demand, which demand is like, if you're holding Bitcoin, every day you're saying that's huddled demand. I'm holding it. I want to expose the asset. And we look at coins that may potentially be supply. These are the coins that aren't locked up in long-term holding situations. They look likely they may be sold. So you can run the ratio between demand and supply.

Starting point is 00:15:43 So those guys that aren't selling are on the demand side and the guys that might be selling are on the supply side. And you get a whole family of supply shop metrics. And Will Clemente was the first to suggest this in running this ratio. and like he suggested doing it on this thing that Glass Node created called Liquid Supply. Now, this metric was, you know, I talked to them and asked them if they could create something that could look at the behavior of individual holders in their history so that we could kind of validate what was happening on exchanges.

Starting point is 00:16:20 We were seeing that the coins were staying to deplete out of the exchanges and move into long-term storage. but I really wanted something that was more forensically accurate than just exchanges because exchanges are very reliant on you tagging particular wallets as being owned by exchanges and there's a lot of data errors. So they created this metric and it's called Liquid Supply and it looks back and it goes, all right, for this cluster of wallet address spaces, because on the blockchain, obviously, you only see addresses, you don't know who it is, they forensically cluster all of these address spaces together and they resolve them to individual holders. Now you've got the individual

Starting point is 00:17:00 holders, you look back across their wallet history and you go, okay, there's three categorization. There's the what I call the Rick Astley, you know, the guy that just keeps stacking and does not sell. For every three bitcoins that's bought, no more than one Bitcoin moves out of or sold. So anything that's stronger than that is what you call like illiquid. They're not selling. And then you've got two other tiers which get more and more liquid. The high liquid side is just totally nets out to zero consistently. So they're full on speculators.

Starting point is 00:17:37 And then you've got the middle kind of swing tradery part hoddly guy. So you can run these supply shocks and you get the original liquid supply shock. And that's a very good metric, even down into. to trading five day, a five day, you know, sort of swing. And then you've got this, what we're looking at here, which is the long-term holder supply shop. And if you were to look into wallets and, you know, because as coins enter a wallet, they kind of age like, you know, fine wine.

Starting point is 00:18:09 And it's like you can measure how long the coin stays inside the wallet. And there's a probability distribution that you can see. Like, if this coin is dropped into a wallet and it's been there for one day, you know statistically the probability of it moving tomorrow or the next day or the next day or the next day and it just starts to drop slowly and decay. But at five months of age, there's a cliff and the behavior starts changing. It's like it starts to drop off a cliff and you know if a coin can stay in a wallet five months or more, it's very unlikely. There's a sea change in action. That now starts to become

Starting point is 00:18:51 more likely not to be sold in health for years and years and years. So this thing takes obviously five months for you to reach that. So it's quite a smooth, reliable metric for the macro. And what we're doing here is running the demand supply over this definition of what is on the demand, which is hoddling, and what's in the supply, which is the probability higher probably are selling. And it's a very clean chart, right? Where you see a peak in hodlers versus the potential, the hoddlers that are potentially going to sell,

Starting point is 00:19:26 points that are under five months aging, that's always the bottom. It's always the bottom of a bare mark in an accumulation phase or a re-accumulation phase having pulled back from a prior run. And we're in that right now. And once we're at, and we're at peak, right? We're at peak. Is it rounding out?

Starting point is 00:19:47 I can't tell from the chart whether that's rounding out or is it still going higher. It started to round out, but we only had like a week or so of data to, it looks about right. It looks about where we'll round out. And generally we stay at peak levels. Generally, we stay at peak levels for a few months, but you can't rely on that. What actually is happening is these guys that have these coins that have aged more than five months, they start to sell once we get a very, very strong rally. And then you'll start to see this number start to decline.

Starting point is 00:20:19 And you would have seen this in the last run-up from 10,000 to 60,000 from fourth quarter of last year that we saw, like, effectively, the last generation of those long-term holders start to sell down. And these new guys came in to buy, right? It's those guys, you know, that they were high net worth purchases. They were like family offices, high net worth individuals. They were buying like significant, like $1 million exposure at a time. So they went like retail and they were buying and buying buying. And that's why we're in peak right now because it's been five months since they bought in. The last wave of those long-term holders sold to them.

Starting point is 00:21:02 And so we're at that point now. They've aged by all the new guys we brought in in the first half of this year. are now these long-term holders and they're at peak. And so they're providing the lockup that's necessary to drive us into the, you know, the six-figure. You know, I'm pretty certain that we're going to go past six figures and Bitcoin in the next. I can't say which month, but the next six months looking at this demand and supply structure, it's what? Another 50% climb will be there. I think we're going to do that pretty, almost certainly over the next six months, probably much soon it could be in a month or two or a week or two, where things are going.

Starting point is 00:21:41 But this is a high reliability metric to say, we are in for a bull run for the next six months or even longer. It could go for another year. So it's a very good time to be accumulating that we've just coming out of this reacumulation phase and can see that on chain very, very clearly. As we did this dip, it was an accumulation. It was not a bear market. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Starting point is 00:26:24 But Dylan titles his cost basis ratio of long term versus short term holders. And when that metric is appreciating or going up, it's indicating it a long, hold it long. And then when it's declining, it's showing that you probably want to either hold or, you know, if you're a trader, you'd be, you'd be selling it and trying to buy back in. And when I'm looking at the, which is not what I recommend, by the way, I just recommend people buying it. I'm a long-term value investor of Bitcoin. I'm sure people get a chuckle out of that. But when I'm looking at this chart and I'm looking at the historical calls that it would have made, it's kind of mind-blowing. And for people that are watching this, this chart literally just turned green today, representing that we're getting ready to go on a big bull run, just like Willie represented,

Starting point is 00:27:13 like Willie just said. So, Willie, my question for you, is there, is there anything else that you won to highlight about this chart that might be different than yours? I know I just kind of plopped it on you without having much time to kind of review it? This chart is more, from my understanding of it is correct. It's new to me and I don't know the exact calculation is underneath, but it is using the price domain of these two, whereas I'm using the supply domain, how much of the supply is locked up, so therefore it's demand and supply. But this is more looking at a ratio of, you know, the cost basis in which these two cohorts

Starting point is 00:27:52 are ratioing at each other. And like, I know, it's a very clean child because it picks tops and bottoms of bullish and bearish phases relatively reliably. It doesn't get, it's a little bit delayed. I think it takes a bit of time for the price to move downwards or upwards. And then it relies on the hold is actually transacting coins in relation to it. So you know that a lot of times you see the price drop and there's no coins being transacted because no one's being shook out of the market.

Starting point is 00:28:24 And this is looking at the price coming down and that compounded with actual investor behavior selling down or buying at the bottoms. And so it's neat because it's a nice way of defining with on-chain metrics that this is a bearish phase and this is a bullish phase. Red is like a beer phase and green is a bull case. And, you know, it's unlike the Wall Street definitions that are very fluffy, like, what is it? It's, is it like a 20% pullback within a time frame, I think, two months or longer or something? That's close.

Starting point is 00:29:03 Yeah. I don't know the definition either, but it's something like what you just described. I just don't like it because particularly in Bitcoin, we're in such a volatile asset. And the price can go anywhere. And it's, and it doesn't, like, we know whether or not investors are buying or selling. And now we're looking at this and saying, okay, on-chain, it's structure as a bull or a bear mark. And that's what I really love about this. And then the second thing to pull out of this is, you know, the chart I'm looking at right now,

Starting point is 00:29:30 2012 to 2000, almost 22, so almost 10 years. In there, we've got two full-blown Bitcoin beer markets, right? Can define that is like a year or so of various structure. and we've got that there. And then in there we've had three additional red strips, which would look, that showed bearishness. But they only showed bearishness over no more than like a quarter, maybe six months or so.

Starting point is 00:29:58 Yeah. We had that in 2013 with the double pump where it shut up and then it went sideways to reaccumulate so that red strip is picking up the bearishness, but it was a reaccumulation phase. And so, like, we had that in that kind of 2019 to 2020 era where Bitcoin chopped around and we had COVID. And it just went sideways for a very long time at around the 10,000 range. And then we had that just recently, which has just ended as of today, I think, where we

Starting point is 00:30:30 pull back from our 50, 60,000 trading range down into as low as 29,000. And now we're back up there again and above it. I got a question for you on this, though. When we look at this run that we're getting ready to go on, let's say that what you're suggesting that it's going to run for the next six months or in the next quarter or two, let's say that that starts playing out. Let's say we go into six figures on the fiat denominy or the fiat value of Bitcoin. Would a metric like this continue to hold up, in your opinion, for people that maybe want to take a pause or they want to take some chips off the table and pay down a house or whatever it might be.

Starting point is 00:31:09 Everybody's got their reasons for why they want to do what they want to do with their resources at various points in time. But would this metric help provide them, hey, yeah, we're probably going into a bare market for at least three months or whatever it might be. Would that continue to work into the future, in your opinion? I don't know if it's something you want to use for price signal. Like, if you can just look at it right now and like it's said to sell at about $50,000. and now it's just turned green today, which is 65,000 as I'm looking at the price right now.

Starting point is 00:31:43 So it would have told you to sell low and buy high because it's a little bit laggy. But it's really telling me the structure of the market that would have been in reaccumulation in these strips. So I'm liking it as a sort of a big zoomed out structure of the market. And it's now we've got two small red strips, no more than way, not even close to a year each. And I think that's actually the sign of what's coming. These big four-year cycles are ending. So that's what I'm curious about. I wouldn't necessarily just use, when it goes green, it's very safe to buy.

Starting point is 00:32:21 I mean, I'd use it as a buy-in thing. Just stop selling is what you're saying. Yeah, let's sell a exponentially growing asset, but the green signals are a good time to enter. Like, if you're scared of big, large drawdowns, buy in the green zone, I wouldn't trade it to sell high and buy low using the red zones because that's not very reliable. Hey, Willie, let's change subjects here. So you had a couple comments on the ETFs earlier.

Starting point is 00:32:50 You were talking about contango. This is something that I was kind of jumping up and down about at the beginning of this bull run. Obviously, the contango disappeared whenever we went into the big sell-off that we had with the mining reorg and everything that was happening. but now that the bull market's starting to pick back up again, especially now that you have these futures settled ETFs, I think this contango thing is going to be a really big talking point for the next six months. When you have such a high return cash carry trade in place, I just can't imagine what that's doing for participation in this market. I'm curious to hear more of your thoughts on just the ETF in general and what you think it might mean moving into the next six months?

Starting point is 00:33:36 It's really interesting now because you've got those ETF, which is futures base. So in theory, you can buy more than 21 million bitcoins. That's a starter. You can buy more than 21 million bitcoins through ETF exposure. Of course, the underlying doesn't change. In a futures market, you can trade to infinity. As long as you can find someone on the other side that's going to sell you that paper contract, Which has no impact on the underlying Bitcoin protocol if you're dealing in spot.

Starting point is 00:34:06 No, it doesn't. It doesn't inflate the coin supply, but it's just interesting. So imagine a sovereign nation state. So I want to deploy more. It's just an interesting metric. If they want to manipulate the price, they can put larger gyrations or more volatility into the spot price. But can they do it at any type of. duration, I think is the real question.

Starting point is 00:34:32 We see this in the gold market where it's consistently being suppressed by the derivative markets. So even since as earlier as 2018 with BitMex being around, we could see the impact of these derivative markets. So it's kind of a net negative, I think, for Bitcoin. If I was going to push back, the really big difference is that you can immediately settle physically at any moment, and the exchanges around the world that allow you to do that are just unbound. Relative to a gold market, if you want to take physical settlement, it's extremely

Starting point is 00:35:11 difficult. If I was going to do that and I wanted to buy a substantial amount of gold and physically settle, you're not doing it immediately, and you're not doing it with the liquidity that you're seeing on these spot exchanges. So if, let's just pull the thread on that scenario that you described, let's say that there is a state actor that's trying to cause mass volatility into this market. I think because of the construct of how much spot availability, liquidity, access there is for immediate settlement straight into my hardware wallet, people that understand this are going to totally take advantage of that. I think what you're saying is you can leverage or use the liquidity on futures exchange to effectively buy in.

Starting point is 00:35:58 So it's maybe five times more liquid, so you can buy a position size six times what you could without moving the price as much. That's a positive. Obviously, like the one, the ETF, the ETF is going to increase the derivative's dominance, the volumes on the derivative exchanges. is on the CME, which is not physically settled, it is settled in cash. So if you wanted to buy and you'd still need to like, well, you'd do it in offshore exchanges,

Starting point is 00:36:29 which are physically settled. I'm thinking... Anybody who truly understands what this is is not going to take a paper contract for this. They're going to take the physically settled Bitcoin. But you might take the paper contract temporarily whilst you fill your spending. spot position, right? So if I'm going to buy like a billion dollars of Bitcoin, I'm not going to dump it in the spot markets. I might buy 200 million on spot markets and I'll buy the rest on derivatives because I can deploy right now. And then the price is going to run up. But I'm

Starting point is 00:37:05 fine because I've locked in my price in that one hit. So I'm getting a cash settled profit. I take the cash sale profit. I pull it over to Binance, FTC, some of the offshore exchanges, which physically trade. You can even do on Coinbase, right? Just buy it on Coinbase using your cash profits. For a proxy, you can physically settle. And that's relatively easy to do. It's not the same as like maybe the futures of gold

Starting point is 00:37:34 where you get cash and now you've got to still find the supplier that's going to sell you that gold. And they have huge spreads, whereas the spread on spot is so tight. I think the other piece too. So in your example that you just used, I go out and I would buy 200 million of the spot and physically settle. The other would be paper.

Starting point is 00:37:53 If the person was truly concerned as to their ability to get the full billion worth in the physical, they'd step into the market. They'd bid the price and they could capture all the physical. Even though they know that they would probably move the market way more aggressively, they could still do it. Price would go nuts. You can capture all the bitcoins on exchanges, but you can't capture all the bitcoins.

Starting point is 00:38:20 It comes back to physics, right? Yeah. If they're not available to be sold, you can't capture it all. So you think that there's limitations there. Just based on how much do the exchanges have the offer. But think about how much inventory. There'd be so much inventory that would come in if the price went parabolic like that in a short amount of time.

Starting point is 00:38:38 Yeah. I think you eventually do incentivize for that. But I think at a certain point, you can't because you don't have. have enough monetary base to buy it in because the, you know, as Bitcoin's values going up, it's capturing more of the monetary base. Like we're at one trillion. And let's say, theate's monetary base is 100 trillion. It's 1%. So at a certain point, you don't have enough fiat monetary base to buy the Bitcoin. So you just can't capture all of it. You run into systemic maximums when you start to look at, you know, you build a big box around

Starting point is 00:39:17 whole system. You go, well, that's our system. There's the cash news of Bitcoin. For people listening to the conversation that Willie and I just had that are not like financiers or anything like that, the reason that we're like pulling the thread on this is because in traditional markets, especially in gold, there's this idea that the gold market is highly manipulated because there's so much cash settled derivatives, future-based derivatives, that it can suppress the price of gold. There's many. arguments about this. And so people in the Bitcoin space have been concerned that because they're offering this futures settled derivatives product with the ETF that's coming out, that there might

Starting point is 00:39:58 be an attempt by a sovereign nation or whoever to be able to suppress the price action of Bitcoin through these derivative products. And so that's why Willie and I are going down this rabbit hole of back and forth for people that might be listening to this, but like, what are they talking about? That's what we're trying to just understand that at more depth. Yeah. And I think if we would have moved back to the ETF, the futures based ETF conversation, I do think that, you know, like, Preston, you were talking about this whole cash and carry trade, and that being as big black hole engine that sucks in more and more capital.

Starting point is 00:40:35 I can see that. That's interesting because like... You want to push back on this and I like it. Go ahead. Let's hear it. I can see what you're saying because there's a lot of long demand. there's a lot of speculative demand on Bitcoin, and therefore you can, like, you know, it draws in the cash and carry hedge funds that come in to have to buy the underlying to be able to extract the

Starting point is 00:40:58 yield. If you're over collateralizing on the borrowing and lending, then that was kind of the angle that I was going at the start of the year whenever we were talking about this a lot. But from what I understand, a lot of institutions are not being. being, they're basically not playing by the rules that the retail borrowers and lenders are playing by as far as the over collateralization is my understanding. So you're saying that they don't have to hold the bitcoins by the same amount of spot?

Starting point is 00:41:29 So like when a retail person's going out and doing these LTVs of 70 or 50 or whatever it is, they're putting a whole lot more immediately settled crypto, whether that's USDC or Bitcoin or whatever into escrow in order to conduct that loan. But if you're an institution, they're letting them under collateralize that borrowing because they're considered way more trustworthy. So in that scenario, I don't know that you necessarily get the full implications of what I was trying to say, which was like locking up coins. Oh, I see. I see. I see what you're saying now. So it's really the over collateralization aspect. So you were betting on this guy that's going to put in two bitcoins to borrow one Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:42:17 And then the hedge fund would then also match that with one Bitcoin. So you're actually getting three Bitcoin's into two that's being bought through that system. Right. Interesting. I don't know. It's like we need to see this really play out. I don't think these lines of credits where you're under collateralise is, I don't think that's necessarily widespread.

Starting point is 00:42:42 Do you have better information than me? No. I think that majority of them actually, I'm involved with hedge funds and sometimes you can get a line of credit. You still have to collateralise, but it's very seldom. I mean, there's more and more of these hedge funds coming out now. And it's not like exchanges are going to give you that line of credit willy-nilly anymore. We are seeing things like loan providers that will lend you cash without collateral. And so

Starting point is 00:43:11 that's kind of doing the same thing. So to do that, you have to have very good reputation. You have to have been around for years and shown you've got a history of operating well. So maybe, but I don't think that's the majority of the market. Maybe we're seeing maybe 10, 20% under collateralization from these institutions. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why VANTA is a game changer.

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Starting point is 00:46:37 2025. Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and other information can be found in the income Funds Perspectus at Fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right, back to the show. Truly, Willie, this is one of my biggest concerns as all of this would really heat up. Like here in the States, you can go to like this FTX exchange and you can deposit Bitcoin and you can start making 5%. You just immediately, it just starts streaming you interest on that exchange. And I think when you look at your uneducated investors that are just having massive returns or making, they're making deposits on these exchanges, they're getting these kinds of interest rates, and let's say the

Starting point is 00:47:21 Bitcoin price really runs. Let's say we're at like $200,000 Bitcoin. Everyone in their kid's sister is talking about this. Everyone in their kid's sister is making deposits onto these exchanges, making what I would call real interest rates. The whole planet has been starved from any type of interest rate for a long time. This is looking like you're in a different universe to be receiving these types of yields and interest rates. My concern is if the true, you're a lot of interest rate, Traditional market starts to look at this, and this gets so big, everyone's going to be like, oh, my God, this is literally ripping the face off of like traditional finance and traditional interest rates. And then you're looking at this whole different calculation on the value of

Starting point is 00:48:03 everything. Now, if the institutional borrowers and lenders are not over collateralized in this market where this yield is being generated, and they have counterparty risk, right? Because these these big institutions that are that are borrowing and doing these activities that are, that are quote unquote low risk, right, that don't have to over collateralize because they're a trusted agent. They have other things on their books. Everybody knows that. And if the price of that equity or whatever those quote unquote assets are that are marked

Starting point is 00:48:35 to market in the old world of finance at 30x or 35x capitalization rates to earnings, all of a sudden come and get dropped down to 10 or 15 or whatever that math would become, and you have them get repriced mark to market based on different multiples because there's this realization that everybody's been duped into thinking that interest rates are nothing percent. All of a sudden, those institutional buyers become enormous risks to the overall market. in these massive platforms, and I'm not saying FTCS specifically, you can name any one of these borrowing lenders as far as I'm concerned because they're all competitively trying to capture clients and they're trying to capture clients by offering high yields, as high of a yield as they

Starting point is 00:49:23 possibly can't. And so my concern is that and what that might mean in that space. And I think, I guess my whole point of saying all this is it's really important to people know how to take self-custody of their coins because if things start getting a little squirrelly in the equity markets and you're seeing things sell off and maybe get repriced and all that stuff that I just described, the last place you want your coins to be sitting is on an exchange, you know, squeaking out 5% yield because and you're sitting there with all this other risk that you have no clue of because of all the institutions that are borrowing and lending. Yeah, it's, um, let me hear a look today. I think it's squeaking out 17% yield as of today. It just jumped again the last two days

Starting point is 00:50:05 with this huge run-up. Let's say that goes more, and I'm sorry to interrupt you, but let's just say that that contango gets crazier, right? Do you think these platforms are going to increase their yields to capture more customers? For them to increase their yields, most of these exchanges aren't doing fixed yield. They're providing lending markets. And then there's, again, like people and institutions that are running arbitrage from contango to spot loaning. You run that arbitrage funding trade and then you'll get this loosely coupled. The futures contango impacts the lending. But to your point, it's really, so effectively this is the domino of house of cards

Starting point is 00:50:48 if it plays out is the funds, the institutions that are playing these trades are getting lines of credit based on, you know, some amount of trust and some assets in their books that may not be priced properly. If they turned out to be toxic, then they cannot cover their losses on if they make a loss first. If they make a loss and they cannot cover their losses in that line of credit, then the exchange is up for it. And then the risk to the retail person who's got money on exchanges lending their coins out is if the exchange hasn't got enough asset backing to cover the loss on the line of credit, which they didn't take any collateral along. So there is certain things that need to happen.

Starting point is 00:51:38 You need to blow out these institutions that are trading with lines of credit. They need to have toxic assets. They need to also trade very badly. Now, we're talking about cash and carry trades. We're talking about delta neutral trades, what we call. they're relatively low risk unless they break, like their algos break or something like that. But generally, if you look at like a 36-month history of these funds, they don't put in a down month. If they do put them down month, it's just like you're relatively small because they shut down their algos.

Starting point is 00:52:11 So that risk is actually low. They're not doing the same ridiculous trades that we're seeing, you know, the banking institutions did in 2008 before that. They were taking very large risks. In fact, they brought up trading firms that were very good at taking large risks. Goldman Sachs was the first and then everyone else copied them. And so I actually spoke to the guy that was acquired into Goldman Sachs that did this high risk trading. And they understood risk very well.

Starting point is 00:52:41 The problem was these other banks said, whoa, that's like more than half the profit of Goldman, we'll got to copy them. And they started doing the same thing with very little understanding of the same risks. And that is markets in general, right? Like what you're describing there is perfect for anybody to understand how things get out of control at the end of a cycle. Yeah, right. And it's currently like we're talking specifically on these kinds of lines of credit for kind of cash and carry type trades is very low risk. And if they have to blow up the assets that are off the books, they've got to blow up their trades.

Starting point is 00:53:19 and then that's got to be big enough to blow up the exchange. So I think the risks involved with that in the current state of crypto, it's very young, it's very early, it's not like that. Very early. It's decades old where banks are getting so greedy, they're squeezing out every last dollar and I don't know where to get the next dollar from, but from taking huge risks. We're not in that stage in crypto. Not even close.

Starting point is 00:53:42 Yeah, not even close to that. It's new, right? It's the old world that's blowing up. What I tell friends and family, if they ask me all the time, like, well, you know, so-and-so is making this yield on this exchange or whatever it is. I was like, hey, you know what, like me personally, if you want to do that, you know, have at it, but this is what I'll tell you, if you start to see a lot of headlines and you start to see the news that interest rates are all out of whack and they're comparing it to the yields that are being achieved inside of the crypto economy or the digital asset economy. economy and people are talking about the repricing of equity based on these interest rates. Like, you might want to start clawing everything out of the exchanges. You have no idea what exchange is going to be. I'd make a nuanced point.

Starting point is 00:54:30 Well, when we're talking 17% today on lend out rates, that's nuanced, right? The lend out rate on Bitcoin today is 3%. And usually it's 0.8%. I'm not talking about putting your Bitcoin on exchanges lending it. I'm talking about putting your US dollars on exchanges. and lending that out. Yeah. 17%.

Starting point is 00:54:49 And that's a different proposition because what am I doing right now is it would be in a cash account with a bank who I trust even less because the banks are the ones that I think are going to go out of business, not the new finance. Totally. They've got bail-in clauses over 100 grand. Anything over 100 grand that can take. And I can't move it. Moving any kind of significant funds in a bank gets blocked.

Starting point is 00:55:12 So the first thing I want to do when I get cash in the bank is get it out of. of the bank and even though I want exposure to cash for just the sheer liquidity, a certain amount of safety net if the volatility of Bitcoin is down over a month, I'll move into exchange. I'll move into exchange and I'll lend it out for 70% and then I can move it in US stable coins like USDC to fund investments. Like most of the investments that I'm doing now take USDC, even in exchange that I'm working with they take USDC. And even AngelList, if you're doing angel investments, they take USDC now.

Starting point is 00:55:51 So it's like the traditional side of divide, the banking divide is like quicksand for my money to be stuck. The first thing I do was I move it into this new speed of light finance where I can move dollars across a blockchain in seconds and not get blocked and get yields of 17% every second that it's being parked. It's just worlds different. And the risks aren't anymore. If we're talking US dollars. We're doing US dollars, the alternative is the risk of your money being in the bank. So I think that's a different proposition. So Jack recently tweeted about considering building a Bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source software. I know you had some

Starting point is 00:56:36 comments back to them. What are your thoughts on the idea and why is it important? I think it's fabulous. I mean, fundamentally the idea is to decentralize the mining network. And if you can get individuals that are mining it in their homes, that's maximum security and decentralization of this network. My comment to him was he talked about the kind of efficiency of the network. You want to be efficient on electricity, which is it's an easy track to get into because you don't need efficient hardware,

Starting point is 00:57:11 but the incentives are going to push for more and more efficiency. But as you get these devices that become more and more efficient, well, it just means I need less dollars to run to produce the same hash rate. So, you know, the incentives just work out that the amount of electricity that's going to protect the network is going to be a cost correlation to the price of Bitcoin. How much electricity is going to burn to protect the network, to how much is that network? worth. And so that is always going to be the correlation. And if your hardware is more efficient,

Starting point is 00:57:45 well, I need more of the hardware to burn the same amount of electricity. That's not the right view, way to look at it. I think the way you want to look at it is to extend the hardware cycle. Like, it used to be, if you're mining Bitcoin a few years back, the shelf life hardware it might be nine months before the next Azac generation would come in and it would obsolete you. And so you had this huge waste issue. But more than that, like you had mining operators that would fly and charter a 747, load up with miners, and then fly it to their location to save maybe 36 hours in transit because the shelf life on that hardware was ticking. And it ended up being millions of dollars of lost revenue because of the shelf life.

Starting point is 00:58:34 that hardware. Now we're getting to these nanometer sort of scaled ships that are like down near to the frontier of what we can produce. And so these, the shelf life of these, these new Azax are longer and that's what you want because the longer the shelf life of this, this hardware before it goes obsolete, the more retail can come in because retail is not efficient. There's not many people I know as a retailer that can fly to the manufacturing and then bring it back in person like a highly, you know, centralized mining facility can do. So like I think more and more development into hardware like this will push these cycles out further. And that's going to help more retailers come into the mining.

Starting point is 00:59:23 And then that's going to also decentralize the network. And it's also going to decentralize where you can capture the energy. You know, when you're very highly concentrated, you want to be parked next to a hydrae that you're dam and nuclear power station. When you're wanting to small-scale mine, you can be anywhere in the world with a good sunlight where I'm next to a stream. And so the decentralizes that part of it. So yeah, it's ultimately good and pushing to get this network more and more decentralized, because as you get this network more decentralized, we effectively create a monetary base that's similar to gold but without the flaws.

Starting point is 01:00:03 Remember, the flaws on gold is that it's held in a very centralized manner. And so a centralized gold leads to fear. We saw that in 1971 when we decoupled off gold because the guys that were meant to have gold didn't. It was they didn't. So they decoupled. And so we need the holders of Bitcoin to be very decentralized. And part of that means every aspect of this network needs to be decentralized.

Starting point is 01:00:31 Because if you get any single centralized choke point, then you can start to control that asset. And then any central point that gets big enough can push us into a new era of fiat. So, yeah, ultimately, it's a good initiative. Willie, I don't have anything else. Is there anything that's hot right now that you want to talk about? You probably don't know. I'm a general partner in three hedge funds in crypto. And I'm an analyst, right?

Starting point is 01:00:59 And it's really interesting to me because when we talk about risk, you know, like the standard metric for risk is sharp ratio, which is essentially your returns divide by the volatility of returns. And we run this thing called like the volatility is using, you know, a standard deviation calculation. And I've just realized, you know, Sharp's cracked because it punishes upward volatility. If Bitcoin moons, the risk increases where it's, you know, you're only, you know, you're only really want to count downside risk. So there's this thing called Sortino, right, which is like, let's remove all the upside. And every day it puts in a down day, let's take that as a sample

Starting point is 01:01:40 point and look at the volatility of the downward. I love where you're going with this. And this is like Sortino, it's much better if you're going to run a fund to track on Sortino. And I just realized today, because I'm running optimization, Algos to the fund, and I'm like, going, so Tino's crap as well. Because if you were to think about the downside risks and then you run a standard deviation, you know, volatility calculation on the downside, it assumes it's going to be a normal curve, but it's not, right? It's going to be a normal curve around the high mean return.

Starting point is 01:02:14 And we're just going to do a cutoff of anything that's negative. And we're going to try and think that that's going to behave in a normal, like, probably distribution that's normal. it's not. So I'm just fabaglasted that all these metrics that the traditional world has been using, they're fundamentally broken. Yes. Like how we understand risk is in traditional markets. And only crypto has gotten me into these markets. And I'm saying to you've got these wild assets. And you go, well, that's not going to work because it's upside volatility. That's not risk. That's just a huge reward. And now let's try and get a better metric. And what

Starting point is 01:02:54 what Wall Street's got is like pretty crappy. So that's my takeaway this week. I'm running these metrics through algorithms and they're giving substandard results. And I think where there's room to improve these metrics. So I haven't been tweeting much because I've been deep in the rabbit hole and looking at the stuff. And it's just, yeah, eye-openingly bad what we've got out there. That's something that Buffett would always bag on at shareholder meetings was how much

Starting point is 01:03:24 the stain he had for the sharp ratio. Because when you're talking about equity, you're talking about like, what is your risk? Well, your risk is really kind of like losing your competitive moat or your ability to price or a network effect or whatever that might be an impairment of the underlying assets of the business. Your risk isn't the fact that the price had these large gyrations that you could leverage and actually buy whenever it would go in the direction that you feel isn't in keeping with the fundamental value that you think the company's worth. So he would describe that volatility as your opportunity and your real risk is whether your assets are becoming impaired or not.

Starting point is 01:04:02 And so it's funny that you go to any business school, they're teaching you that risk is that volatility. I mean, he's saying one step further because he's adding human intelligence and a qualitative view of what risk really is. No doubt about it. But even if we were to go to a quantum world and be like a renaissance, I'm sure they don't use these crappy metrics. Like, I ran the optimization.

Starting point is 01:04:26 I'll go on the fund and I did it on Sharp. And it was like, it's rock solid return, very low return. And then like our fund manager did a qualitative pick based on knowing what was underneath these funds. And it just blew it out of the proportion. Like it was like overperformed every time. The Sharp optimized thing tried to get everything rock solid. not move. And then you run Sortino and it's a little bit better, but it still didn't beat the

Starting point is 01:04:55 human thing, you know, so it needed a new type of risk metric, which I've done now, and it's much better. At the end of the day, the risk is, is the network effect of Bitcoin becoming impaired by some other protocol? Is there, like, those are the real risks? It's going to be the qualitative thing. It's going to be Michael Siler type analysis. Yes. You know that this is good. You look at using human intelligence, not just all these kind of, kind of Paul Krueger saying it's too volatile. This sort of stuff just doesn't fly. It's just the wrong way to look at this asset. Totally agree. Willie, this is what I want to tell you. I really appreciate these conversations. When I think of a person who just has some of the deepest critical thinking in the space,

Starting point is 01:05:43 like you're at the top of the list, man. And I just really appreciate you making time to come on and have this conversation with me because I know I really value just the conversation. So, thank you very much. Well, thank you, Preston. I really enjoyed this podcast even from before you were inside crypto. And I mean, I'm still like listening to the old episodes of We Study Billionaires. And I'm like, I listen to the one with Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett and how you did commentary over it. So it's such deep knowledge in these other, you know, value Thank you so much. This is great stuff.

Starting point is 01:06:18 So I'm still getting great value from this podcast. I'm super happy to be part of it now that it's inside crypto. Thank you so much, Willie. Hey, you got a newsletter. Anything else you want to highlight the folks that we'll have in the show notes? Yeah. So I've got a newsletter. You just go to my Twitter profile.

Starting point is 01:06:35 I think everyone knows it's Woonomic. It's linked there. So I do like, you know, now it seems like one or two times a week. I do on-change structure and demand supply forecasting, Bitcoin's. you know, next few weeks to months ahead. So it's great if you're an investor and looking, you know, just to take some of anxiety off with these wild moves. Yeah, so that's the news that I write. And yeah, that's pretty much all I run these days. And something that, you know, people can actually action on. So just go to my Twitter profile and that's about it, really.

Starting point is 01:07:11 Willie, thanks so much for joining me, and I look forward to the next time we're able to do this. Sounds great. If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use. Just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin-specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I'd love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable, if you can leave a review, we would really appreciate that. and it's something that helps others find the interview in the search algorithm. So anything you can do to help out with a review, we would just greatly appreciate. And with that, thanks for listening,

Starting point is 01:07:49 and I'll catch you again next week. Thank you for listening to TIP. To access our show notes, courses, or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

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