We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey, everyone. Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the podcast where we're talking about Bitcoin. My two guests today are some of the youngest and most talented thinkers in the Bitcoin space, and that's Will Clementi and Dylan LeClair. Both of these gentlemen are rising stars within the community for their contributions to on-chain analytics and analysis. They both have incredible articles that have been featured by some of the biggest Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:00:24 publications. And on today's show, we talk about the derivatives market and how it influences the market cycles, what it might mean moving forward with respect to volatility, some of their favorite on-chain metrics, why some of those metrics are or aren't important in certain circumstances, and much, much more. So get ready for this really fun conversation with Will and Dillon. You're listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. Hey, everyone, welcome to the show. Like we said in the intro, I'm here.

Starting point is 00:01:10 with Will and Dylan and my oh my. You guys are like the whiz kids of Bitcoin. I mean, it's crazy to me how quickly. I think that's the thing I keep telling myself is I just look at your age and I say, my God, I didn't know this stuff that these guys are talking about like five years ago. Like I look at where you guys are at and it's like, how in the world can they possibly know what they know at their age and it's just a little mind blowing to me? So I guess that's my first question is like, what has allowed you guys to be able to just turn on the afterburners to catch up with people? I mean, it has to be technology that's assisted in your ability to find key people or whatever it might be to accelerate that. But like, dude, it's crazy.

Starting point is 00:01:59 Pressing like first and foremost, you obviously had a huge impact on Bill and I, like, I remember it's really strange being on this podcast because I remember. about a year ago, I was working at Michaels and I had like an overnight stocking job. And I would come in and I would listen to your podcast. I would come in at like 2 or 3 a.m. and I would just chain listen to it until like 9, 10 a.m. when I got off the shift. And at this time, it wasn't even Bitcoin. It was, you know, you're talking about your first 25 episodes. You know, you're talking about all the Warren Buffett stuff. I got out security analysis, big debt crisis. See, I love this. I didn't know

Starting point is 00:02:37 you were into the value side of it, Will. Yeah, yeah. At first, I came into it that way. I got like, zero to one by Peter Thiel, all these books like you recommended early on. And yeah, I mean, aside from like you specifically, like just in general, I think the internet has a huge part to do with it. You know, I've learned way more on the internet. I'm sure Dylan agrees, you know, than I probably would have otherwise. I've learned much more through podcasts and YouTube than I did in all my school combined. I wasn't always great in school, but it's funny, like, you find something you're interested in, and, you know, you kind of go down the rabbit hole and lead yourself through that. Yeah, I mean, I think, like, we have more content than ever before,

Starting point is 00:03:19 and it's like, if you're interested in something, there's no excuse aside from maybe, like, becoming an engineer or something in medicine, for you not to be able to teach it to yourself. And so especially with finance, I mean, there's all kinds of content out there for you to consume now. Dylan? I agree with it, and I relate to almost all of what Will just said. I honestly, in 2018, my first, like, I was always a math guy. I tried science out, just wasn't a big fan and was like, all right, I guess I'll use my love for numbers to kind of crunch some numbers in the business world, whatever that means. And so I should probably learn about investing in all this. And one of

Starting point is 00:03:56 my first things I did was I literally went into the podcast app and looked up investing, investing podcast. And there you guys were, there's a little bit of SEO to that. So as far as naming conventions, yes. But yeah. I mean, you nailed it there. Yeah. And so I went down, I mean, I was, I was learning about like the, I guess like the Fiat world and, you know, the kind of the central bank monetary system and all of that as I was at the same time in parallel, just, I had a Twitter account earlier. And so I wasn't active on it, but crypto, Twitter, Bitcoin, Twitter, I found the kind of the Bitcoin corner, not specifically, but, you know, they were very active and passionate.

Starting point is 00:04:35 And I first stumbled upon this at 3,000 at the bottom of the bear market. And you had these, you know, this group that had drawn down 85%, you know, and they're just loud, obnoxious, but they were convicted. And I was like, you know, these people, maybe they're not crazy. Maybe they, there's something, there's something more to it. And so I just kind of passively learned about Bitcoin and kind of the legacy system and in tandem up in, through my freshman year of college, 2020. The second semester of that was COVID, and they kicked us all, basically kicked us all out and sent us home.

Starting point is 00:05:09 And then I was kind of right at the tip of like going down the whole rabbit hole of Bitcoin. And then COVID comes. They print a bunch of money. I have so much spare time on my hands. And my Zoom classes that are taught by like boomer professors about investing in economics were like awful. And I was like paying for this. And it was so I dropped.

Starting point is 00:05:30 out and just decided to like, I needed stats. That's what, like, I viewed it the opportunity costs in Bitcoin, especially after like I read Jeff Booth's thesis about like technology dematerializing everything. I was like, okay, well, and I kind of all put it together. It was like, okay, I think the opportunity cost of everything is Bitcoin and information is free and abundant. So what am I doing? And, you know, I guess like 18 months later, we're here just talking about, talking about Bitcoin and we just hang out on Twitter all day. But really, I think just the internet's, It's like, you know, the arena of ideas is with, you know, the most awesome thing is credentials don't matter here.

Starting point is 00:06:05 It's just what you can bring to the conversation. Amen to that. Amen to that. And to add on to that, I think, too, like, I mean, Dylan and I's platformers, which have grown, like, more than I think either of us could have ever imagined. I want you to hit on this because learning through this many people will. Like, you've had, I don't even know what your follower count now is, but I know it's a lot. Like, you're what?

Starting point is 00:06:29 You're over 350. or 400,000 people following you specifically, the learning threshold that has gone up because you have so many people that are queuing you in different directions. Some of it's just, you know, people just, I see all different types. I know you guys see all different types. But there are people that will throw things your way that you would never have learned or seen if you didn't have such a massive platform of people following you. So talk to us about some of the things that you've learn through that. First of all, just being able to reach out to people and ask questions is the first benefit of that. I'm grateful to be in that position now. I can just reach out to

Starting point is 00:07:09 pretty much anybody on Twitter and they'll most likely respond because they get the notification now just because I have, you know, large follower base or I can tweet at somebody. But yeah, and just in terms of like posting things and the feedback, like I can put out, you know, a chart or a metric or an opinion on something. And I have hundreds or thousands of people. people that are criticizing it, sometimes not in the nicest or most respectful way. But, you know, I think part of it is being able to kind of pull the maybe disrespect or like rudeness out of a comment and being able to say, okay, well, maybe they didn't deliver this in the best way, but what they're actually saying has some merit to it. Or, you know, aside from the bad apples,

Starting point is 00:07:50 just in general, you get people that will give you their feedback, right? I'll post, you know, a lot of this stuff I'm posting is like market related content to big. Bitcoin. And so I put out an opinion and people say, well, you're not looking at this, this, or this or with this metric, which you also need to consider is that this might be skewing the data. And so sometimes just putting out an idea or kind of framing something in an open-ended way is the best way to learn. Like I posted something last week and I said, do you think over time Bitcoin's volatility increases or decreases? And I got freaking Sailor commenting on it and giving me his opinion. And it's without that platform that I have now, I mean, there's

Starting point is 00:08:28 no way I would be able to get some of these insights. And yeah, like, that to me has been the coolest thing is, is asking, you know, when we're talking about just being able to learn, asking questions is huge. That's, that's been my biggest asset is over the last couple months, I've kind of evolved my learning, just from like a pure market standpoint. Like, I did not at all predict the, the May crash. I got into on-chain analytics, like a couple weeks before that. It was complete new. Over the summer, I got really kind of upset at myself because I missed that whole move, really kind of grinded out my understanding of all that stuff. And through that, I really kind of built a community, if you will, of different people that were interested in it,

Starting point is 00:09:07 through Telegram, also in just in DMs. But now I'm in some of these telegram groups. And like, I remember early on you talked about the book, The Seven Habits of Highly Successful People. You talk about like masterminds. These groups that I'm in are essentially that, where it's like all these people that are specialized in this one thing and we're all kind of putting our heads together to come to the best conclusion. It's like 15 or 20 of us, different fund managers or just independent on-chain researchers. And we kind of all are, you know, just like bouncing ideas off of each other. And I think people more than anything, I mean, books are amazing and books can help you understand a lot of things. But bouncing ideas off of people and just asking

Starting point is 00:09:48 questions, I've learned so much through that, just early on, just reaching. I mean, that's how, that's how I got originally noticed by you was I tweeted out to you. I put out this article when I had like 300 followers and it was like Bitcoin's role in the financial system and I tagged you. I tagged Dylan actually. And you crushed it. You crushed the article. I appreciate it. And I didn't really think anyone was going to respond, but then you retweeted it. I was like, oh my God, Preston Pitch retweeted my article. It was like freaking out. And then from there, you know, it was just, I was like, okay, well, this is how you reach out to people. I just started adding, tagging people and everything.

Starting point is 00:10:26 Whenever I have questions now, like, I just reach out to fund managers or different, you know, reach out to like Lynn Alden if I have a question about macro or different like crypto fund managers about, you know, some of their opinion on the market over the next couple months. And it's just like, people are the biggest alpha, not just in markets, but just in understanding things in general. If you can handle the trolls, because there's trolls, especially at the level of followers that both of you guys have, if the individual can handle it and they can ask the right questions, it's just insane. It's insane what you can learn. And you mentioned the idea of a mastermind. People in the past might have a mastermind of five people. And some of them might not even be experts really kind of in what you're interested in learning about. But with Twitter, I mean, if you got 400,000 followers or whatever it is you guys got, I mean, you can uncover just anything. And you can ask questions like, all right, I'm interested in learning about this.

Starting point is 00:11:22 What's the best book on the planet for that? And you'll get a hundred different book recommendations from wherever, right? Like, it's just crazy. We're not the best app for learning and doing this stuff. I mean, especially being a Bitcoin on Twitter, I think I started actively using my Twitter account in like May of 2020 about posting about Bitcoin and following like Klebs on Twitter. but are just like hardcore like Bitcoin maximalists, like interacting with them. Half these people are pseudonyms, you know, with a cartoon character has their name.

Starting point is 00:11:52 That are brilliant. Yeah, because you have people like, it's so funny when you see like Janet E. Allen and she'll tweet out something or some, some credential, you know, checkmark. And I say that now just recently, recently getting a check mark. But, you know, they're getting ratioed by a pleb with 300 followers who's destroying their argument with just, you know, first principles reasoning. And now that we got high bandwidth spaces, like, I get onto these spaces. Yeah, spaces are amazing. And you're talking to somebody who doesn't even have a picture on their profile with five followers.

Starting point is 00:12:26 And they're like some of the most intelligently crafted arguments and points and critical thinking that you've ever heard. Like, it's just mind-blowing how much talent is out there if you're willing to ask the question or and just make yourself vulnerable, I guess, to, hey, I don't know what this is, but help me understand. and what different ideas there are around it. So I guess going back to the original questions, like how are you guys able to catapult yourself

Starting point is 00:12:52 to such a high level of understanding and influence in the market in a constructive way? And I mean, it's really, you guys have been asking amazing questions. You guys have been posting, like, awesome content, but you've also been open to the criticism to adjust it, to update it to. I mean, Dylan, you and I were having a DM about this, and this was actually my next question.

Starting point is 00:13:15 I think about this metric, this long-term holder versus short-term holder. And how I just love, absolutely love this chart. And I know both of you guys have coordinated different ideas around this chart. But Dylan, explain this chart to people what it is. And I mean, the performance on this. We'll post this out after we're done with this interview or one of you guys can post it in the comments or something when this interview airs. But talk to us about what this is, this idea.

Starting point is 00:13:42 The core kind of thing about Bitcoin on-chain analytics and what makes it so different than anything we've found a seen before. I guess public blockchain ledgers, I mean, there are other ledgers, other cryptos, but Bitcoin on-chained specifically, like Bitcoin and the UTXO set, you know, Satoshi kind of air dropping this thing onto the world in 2009. I mean, basically, you can see like you have a real-time property rights for, you know, this global monetary system not growing organically. And so you can see basically like Bitcoin's market price is $10. Well, you can see like that, you know, the average Bitcoin was traded for $3. And so, you know, we're not talking about $10, but, you know, when you're looking at, say, price today at $60,000, well, the realized price, basically like the on-chain cost basis for that, like everybody on the network is like $24,000.

Starting point is 00:14:31 Like a $1.2 trillion market cap, realized cap is like $450 billion, something around there. And so you can kind of see the transparently, like, you know, the, you know, these things with on chain. And so the chart I showed you was the short-term holder cost basis versus the long-term holder cost basis. And Glass-nodes quantification of that. There's some statistical threshold that is 155 days, but it's essentially the longer a UTXO or a longer a Bitcoin is held, the less likely it's going to be spent into the future.

Starting point is 00:15:00 And that's true when analyzing the entire UTXO set over the course of Bitcoin's history. And so while it seems kind of arbitrary, it's not. And we can do some pretty cool things with analyzing the track. of these long and short-term holders. And so what you kind of see is during bull markets, the short-term holder cost basis, basically new money, new capital, coins that are being transferred over short time spans on the network, the cost basis of those coins that is getting bid up while a long-term holder cost basis is flat.

Starting point is 00:15:29 And essentially it's because, you know, hodlers, stackers set the floor in bear markets, the holders of last resort, that's Satoshi accumulators of last resort, is what puts a bottom on this Bitcoin price. And because of its absolute scarcity, you know, as people kind of discover that Bitcoin is the best monetary asset the world has ever seen, because that's a fact, basically, you know, they want to secure an allocation and they have to bid up the price of this asset in dollars to acquire it. And so you see that that bull market trend is essentially short-term holders increasing against long-term holders. Eventually, Bitcoin's price action going parabolic, incentivizes some of the network participants.

Starting point is 00:16:09 to take some chips off the table. And so you see that in the UTXO set with all these coins that haven't moved in a long time hitting the market or making an on-chain transaction. And so while some of those may not be economic cells in the sense that, hey, I just transferred some of my funds from one wallet to the next. But when you see at the top of bull markets

Starting point is 00:16:30 is a lot of these coins coming on to the market or moving on chain all in once, especially old coins. And so from there you see that trend start to change where you see a lot of long-term holders, their coins are moving into the short-term holder cohort. They just spent. And so that long-term cost basis starts to appreciate in a really, really fast manner, at the same time where the price action just went up 20x, 100x, whatever the multiple is,

Starting point is 00:16:57 that marginal buyer just gets exhausted. And so that's when you kind of see the cyclicality, the reflexivity work in the other way. And you see these seemingly random boom and busts over the course of Bitcoin's history. That aren't actually all that random. It's just, you know, the natural, like, kind of cyclical volatility of the monetization of this asset. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.

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Starting point is 00:21:26 If we could just back up for a second. So like, realized cap is essentially the market capitalization of Bitcoin based off of when a coin was last moved. So the way to think of this is like Roger Vair who bought Bitcoin whatever at like a dollar, right? Let's say he bought $100,000 of Bitcoin at $1. Okay? And he hasn't moved those coins whatsoever.

Starting point is 00:21:49 That's now like- He moved on in 2017, but keep going. Yeah. So now that, you know, in market cap terms, that takes up. of whatever, 6.1 or whatever Bitcoin's at $6.2 billion chunk of market cap. But if he hasn't moved those coins, in Realized Cap, he's still only adding $100,000 to that. So it's essentially you're looking at the amount of value that is stored in Bitcoin. Or in other words, for people who are familiar with like technical analysis, you're looking at an on-chain VWAP, so a volume-weighted

Starting point is 00:22:22 average price of Bitcoin. And this was originally conceptualized by Pierre Richard, and then Nick Carter actually created the metric. And so Pierre Richard came up with the idea way back in like Bitcoin's early days. Nick Carter actually presented it, created the metric at a conference. And so that was where Realized Cap was born. And so Realized Cap itself is useful aside from looking at it and more granularity. Because in bare markets, whenever the market cap goes below Realized Cap, by definition, the market's incapitulation, right? Because it's below the average cost basis of all the investors in the market. And so then what Dylan said, like what Dylan did, like he said, was take this a step further and then using blast

Starting point is 00:23:05 notes, heuristics of the short term and long term holders comparing the two. And then if you actually run the ratio between the two of those as well, you get an interesting cyclical oscillator. But one other thing that Dylan didn't hit on that I think is important to understand is that there's this natural dynamic between short term and long term holders. And so what you see is that the long-term guys scale into the bear market. They don't perfectly time the bottom, so they don't bottom-tick perfectly, but they scale into the bottom of the bear, and then they scale out into the major bowl rallies that we have. So they buy into weakness or scale into weakness, and they scale out into strength. And so you see this natural dynamic where

Starting point is 00:23:47 into the bear, all the short-term guys leave. All the speculators get out of the market, or they age into long-term holders if they stay on, if they stay in the market, right? And so over time, obviously, you have more and more people that come in because number go up is basically the best form of marketing for Bitcoin. So you have over time more short-term holders come in the bear market, become long-term holders into the bear. I mean, they come into into the bull market and then turn into long-term holders into the bear.

Starting point is 00:24:16 But you also see the long-term guys, as Dylan touched on, come in and step in and kind of set that floor into the bear market. And so you see this natural dynamic where if you look at the two of the charts, they go the complete opposite directions. They converge and then they disperse into the bull market. And so Dylan took that a step further by looking at their cost basis and then the behavior of the two of those. And there is a lot of signal on that. Short-term holder cost basis itself is actually another really interesting metric. The short-term holder realized price has been a really interesting level that Bitcoin prices historically reacted with. Right now, that's at $53,000, which is interestingly right around that kind of trillion dollar market cap, which you also

Starting point is 00:25:01 see has kind of been aligned in the sand for investors through when you look at like transactional activity and on chain volume, you see that's kind of aligned in the sand there. So there's some confluence there. But in bull markets, what you see is that price tends to bounce off of short-term holder realized price, which is another interesting variant of that. But yeah, that was an awesome metric created by Dylan that takes two of those concepts, realized price, which is the on-chain cost basis or average cost basis of investors on-chain with that kind of cyclical behavior that you see between those short and long-term holders. Dylan, I'm curious if you've run the numbers. So when you sent the chart back to me, I said, can you just put this in a green and a

Starting point is 00:25:46 red status of like, I own it or I sold it and I'm out of the market kind of scenario, a very binary scenario. I'm curious what the outperformance is. Have you calculated that? I actually haven't. I should back test the returns. You need to figure that out. And then when we error this, I want to be able to tell people what it did. And I know it's better than Bitcoin itself significantly better. Well, On Change is so fascinating because, I mean, you have this, I'm just repeating myself, but you have this transparent ledger of ownership. Yeah. For an asset monetizing on every single balance sheet, whether someone likes it or not, you're

Starting point is 00:26:25 not insulated against Bitcoin's monetization. So you need to get this, I mean, eventually you're going to need to denominate your balance sheet in Bitcoin terms. It's just whether you've realized that and accepted it yet. And so being able to kind of track this live and see every single, you know, every single Bitcoin owned on the network in full transparency, it's pretty fascinating. And just, you know, I think we're just scratching the surface on kind of all this stuff. The glass node metric for long-term holder versus short-term holder, help us understand what that cutoff is. Like, what time frame

Starting point is 00:27:00 are we talking here? Yeah. So it's 155 days. And so the reasoning is, as Dylan kind of touched on, what you see is that as a coin is held in a wallet, the longer it's held in a wallet, the less likely it is to be spent. And then Glass Notes kind of run some statistical studies to look and say, okay, where's that cutoff that the likelihood of them spending those coins really cuts off the most? And that's right at 155 days, which is also five months. So I know for a lot of the hardcore Bitcoin Maxxies are going to be like five months, these guys are whips. That's nothing. But it's just when you kind of backtest the behavior, that's where you see the likelihood of those coins being spent cuts off the most.

Starting point is 00:27:43 So this is one of the reasons I like that chart so much. My opinion, so we're in a little bit of a sell-off right now. I think the price went up to close to $68,000. It's down there 60,000 right now. There's whales out there. And these whales can move that price more than I think a lot of people realize. And not only can they move the price, but they can move the price at times when you're maybe least expecting it or you just, you don't know what their reason for a sell or a buy necessarily

Starting point is 00:28:13 is. And then the leverage that's in the market just kind of extensuates whatever it was that they were doing or just kind of pushes it in the up or down direction even more. So my personal opinion is somebody who's kind of trading this thing in a day for day kind of way or like in a very short time horizon. I don't have the metrics. And I guess I'm speaking more for myself. I don't have enough confidence in being able to trade that, especially in a way where I would be able to outperform the tax burden that's associated. with every one of those cell orders. So Preston Pish, right, I am a much longer time horizon looking type person. And this goes back to probably my Buffett days and just kind of like how I invest

Starting point is 00:28:56 in equities. And so when I buy something, like I'm really looking for something that I can own for a year plus at a minimum. And so when I looked at the chart that the two of you have put out there and Dylan has really kind of refined, when I'm looking at that chart, I'm saying this is something that kind of meets that time horizon where the whales in the market aren't going to be able to kind of bump me around and kind of mess up whatever it is I'm trying to do because it's just too big of a macro theme and the market's moving in hundreds of billion dollar type waves. And so when I'm looking at that and I'm saying, hey, if I'm going to, and I'm not one to sell, but if I'm going to stock how Fiat or cash to buy at an opportune time, this past event would have

Starting point is 00:29:42 been a great scenario where this metric that we're talking about right now, you would have been stockpile on cash. You would have not been buying more Bitcoin. And you would have probably nailed, like literally nailed the living hell out of the bottom of this recent six month downturn that we had. And if you would have stockpiled your free cash list for six months and inserted it into the market right then, I see this metric as being just extremely valuable for that type of investor. And that's how I am. That's how I'm going about it, at least. Preston, the most fascinating thing is you have this, you know, the on-chain stuff, it's kind of like, you know, these large macro trends. And then at the same time, overlaid on top of it, and this, you know, it definitely impacts the price a lot over the short term.

Starting point is 00:30:23 It matters far more is this derivatives market. And essentially what you have are these completely, you know, free and open and wild west public capital markets that are that are being built out all over the world. And they're on-chain settled, monetary asset, this free and open decentralized, absolutely scarce monetary asset is being traded with fully functional derivatives that are settling billions of dollars a day. And so what if I told you when this metric flipped and you started to see kind of all these long-term holders selling at once? and at the same time, you could have just gone 1X net short, you know, 1X short on these derivatives, where you're basically holding, if you're 1X short with Bitcoin as collateral,

Starting point is 00:31:10 you're basically holding a synthetic dollar. So if you 1X on a derivative, 1X short on a derivatives exchange, you're talking like perps, like putting the, putting the Bitcoin. And so at the same time as the market is convinced we're in this new paradigm, and I get it, like when Bitcoin rips, and it's, you know, when Bitcoin passes 100, like we're all going to be euphoric because that's been this kind of eye in the sky target for a while

Starting point is 00:31:34 and it's going to feel good. But, you know, when at the same time, you know, everyone's euphoric and sentiments at all-time highs and all these coins are coming out of the market, you can get like 50% 100% annualized at times just going short on the perks. And it's because the euphoria, the sentiment, everybody's levered long on the derivative side of things. And the way that these say the perpetual swaps work is it's tethered to the spot index. It's tethered to the spot price with that funding rate. And so if the derivative bulls want to bid up that price all they want, that's great. But that funding rate is going to go so high that, you know, it's going to basically cost them 100% APR on an annualized basis, which was kind of where it hit sometimes

Starting point is 00:32:16 at the top on like buy bit, finance, these exchanges that were all using Bitcoin as collateral to long Bitcoin. And they were paying 75%, 100% annualized rates to do it. But the problem with longing Bitcoin with Bitcoin is that if the price goes down, well, your position goes down at the same time as your collateral value. And that's kind of why you saw that, you know, especially harsh drawdown to 30K. I mean, we went from 40 to 30 in about two hours. And so like, you know, that's why you see those dislocations and, you know, those major volatility kind of blowups is because it's free and open and you have all these kind of derivatives layered on top of it. But that's what makes it so fun.

Starting point is 00:32:56 I think what Dylan just touched on is really important to understand one of the more bullish kind of setups for Bitcoin is the percentage of futures contracts that are currently margined with crypto, which I know that our people don't like that word, but crypto versus USD or stable coins. And the reasoning is what Dylan just alluded to was the convexity that these contracts have. So essentially, if you're longing Bitcoin with Bitcoin as collateral, that's awesome when the market's going up because you not only is your P&L decreasing, but your collateral is increasing

Starting point is 00:33:31 in value as well. Well, as soon as the market starts to turn against you, it goes to complete opposite direction because not only is your P&L decreasing, but your collateral is also decreasing in value. So you're even more likely to get stopped out or liquidated or freak out and sell for that matter. And then conversely, when more the market is margin with stable coins or USD, those contracts are more likely to be squeezed to the upside. And the reasoning is because if you're short with Bitcoin as collateral, and let's say the market starts going against you, not only is your P&L decreasing because you're short, but you also don't have this inadvertent hedge that you do when you're margin with Bitcoin. Because if you are in a short and then starts going

Starting point is 00:34:11 against you, well, yeah, your P&L is going against you, but your collateral is increasing in value. So when you see a larger portion of the market being collateralized with Stables or USD versus is crypto that puts us in a more healthy state. It means that A, we're less likely to have this convexity to the downside, and B, shorts are more likely to be squeezed. And so currently, the percentage of total futures open interest that's margined with crypto is down from like 70% in April. Now it's down to like, I think the mid-40s, Dylan, maybe you could correct me if I'm wrong, something like that, but what's almost half of what it was earlier this year. And so to also touch on what you mentioned a second ago. On the short-term timeframes, price is very much driven by

Starting point is 00:34:57 A, the derivatives, and then B, price levels. So if I'm analyzing the market, and I don't day trade, and Dylan doesn't either. But when we're kind of trying to understand what's going on in the market, because we both have like market intelligence newsletters, and we kind of need to understand, like, what's going on. What you can look for is these dislocations between the derivatives market and price, and then as well as you can look at order books are another thing and then just straight up price level. Some people, you know, live and die by just looking at price levels and they just look at price action. Where funding really comes into play is, as Dylan mentioned, it's the peg for perps to the spot index price, which is essentially just this weighted

Starting point is 00:35:38 average of all the major spot exchanges weighted by their volume. And so whenever funding is positive, what it means is that the perpetual contract is trading above the average spot price. And so usually what that means is that perp traders are more aggressive relative to spot. It can also mean that the spot price is trading, the spot is selling off stronger than perps. And then conversely, like, if you have negative funding, it can mean, A, that spot is buying while perps are shorting, but it can also mean, let's say you have this big leverage cascade, right, and you get a bunch of longs that are liquidated, well, by definition, that's going to drive the per price lower than the spot price.

Starting point is 00:36:21 So there's a bit of nuance there, but generally whenever you have prolonged high funding, that means that traders have been greedy for a while in the market. Where this is really, where this really has signal and where this is really actionable, because we had high funding earlier this year for months, for like two or three months. We had to get reset like one time. Everyone's like, oh, this is a new paradigm. Funding can just be positive forever. Obviously, that wasn't the case.

Starting point is 00:36:48 When you look on the kind of the intraday timeframes, where this really is actionable is when there's a dislocation between the direction of funding and the direction of price. So an example would be if you start to see this actually happened and not to show myself, but I posted about this like when we came off of the summer lows, remember we had this really big short squeeze and price drove up to like 48K on Binance. Yeah. It drove up at, I think it was like the first week of August or something like this. What happened was is price was grinding up.

Starting point is 00:37:19 Meanwhile, you had funding driving down. So essentially what that was saying is that the spot market was buying and perps were so used to fading every single rally. They were raking in money fading every rally for the last three months. And they're like, okay, this is like the last three fake out rallies that we've had. And so they were just fading it. They got squeezed. That's one way that it can have.

Starting point is 00:37:40 signal, the other way would be the complete opposite. So instead, if you see funding increasing while price is decreasing, so what that means is that traders are essentially leveraged longing the dip. And so if you're seeing price continue to grind down while the perpetual swap funding is increasing, that means that essentially the spot market is driving price down and per traders are leveraged longing the dip. So whenever you see these dislocations, that's when you tend to see these things. get resolved in the direction of price.

Starting point is 00:38:13 And then you can also look at that with a bit more granularity in terms of specific exchanges. So like a kind of rule of thumb is like whenever Bybit is doing something, that generally gets faded because ByBit's like a primarily like retail driven exchange. So one, I mean, one example, going back to that short squeeze from the end of summer, you saw Bybit was fading the rally really aggressively. Like I forget, it was like 70 or 80 percent, negative 70 or 80 percent APR. And then meanwhile, you had like FTCS and Deribit, which tends to be where smarter capital is. They had positive funding.

Starting point is 00:38:46 So you can look at these dislocations as well to kind of get a good picture on what's perhaps going to occur. And then last thing would just be going back to what we touched on with the convexity or the higher likelihood of stable coin USD contracts being squeezed. You can look at are the contracts that are being opened, coin or stable. margin. So, you know, ideal scenario for the bears would be prices grinding down. And meanwhile, you have a bunch of coin margin open interests and, you know, funding is moaning. That's like, okay, you have all these perp traders that are leveraged longing to dip, trying to catch a falling

Starting point is 00:39:26 knife. Meanwhile, the spot market is just fading this. And this is what happened also on that move down in May. I remember when we moved out, when we had massive flush to 30K, the night before, I'm not saying I called the initial move down, but I remember the night before we had that last kind of capitulation leg down to 30K. I remember looking at my phone and seeing that funding was rising and I was like, oh, God, like this is not good because Price was just absolutely nuking and everyone was trying to catch a falling knife. And usually the way it goes is that you have to see these guys completely get wiped out. These traders completely give up on trying to leverage along the dip. And then usually you start to see funding stay negative. And that's when

Starting point is 00:40:09 price then begins to kind of grind or consolidate out of that capitulation area. As you guys are describing this, I'm sure most people who are hearing this are saying, this sounds really complicated. This sounds really involved. But as I'm listening to this, it sounds like, and Will, you talked about this a little bit, that what happens on the upside is almost identical on the downside as far as how the leverage is kind of forcing the price action to kind of stable. They become forced buyers or sellers, essentially. That's right. That's right. So when you think about this leverage, all these leveraged

Starting point is 00:40:45 markets that now exist, the perps, I still don't think they're available here in the U.S., but everywhere else in the world they are. When we think about that, is this causing the price to become more volatile? Or is it causing the price to normalize to whatever the actual price action was going to be in the first place with less volatility. How do you guys see that taking place? I think it's option one. I mean, it's basically a whip selling. Bitcoin has some sort of collective intrinsic value, maybe intrinsic values.

Starting point is 00:41:17 It has some sort of subjective value for everyone around the world. And that value is basically going up for, like, it has been going up in a straight line. More and more people come to understand Bitcoin and subjectively value it. But, you know, underneath the surface, you have all the, the volatility, enhancing things like leverage, coin margin, all the stuff that Will dug into, it's essentially it's just layering on directional bets, which causes the market just that just whipsaw around. And so I think the most exciting thing about this is that, and it's the thing, Preston, that I've seen you, especially the last month, just nail into,

Starting point is 00:41:53 is like done with centrally planned, you know, cost of capital, academics that are just clueless bureaucrats that have some sort of power in this incumbent system, these 20th century institutions. So done with them. And it's completely, completely incompetent. And so here we just kind of have this open source decentralized software. That's just TikTok next block in a completely just. Unemotional.

Starting point is 00:42:22 Yeah. Unemotional kind of way. Yeah. It's mechanical. Sometimes the next 10 minutes, there's going to be a block and there's going to be property ownership transferred on an immutable ledger. And so you can do all this stuff on top of it, the BTC USD price. I think it's going to be increasingly volatile actually over the next decade as a result of this incumbent system basically eating itself as it continues to just kind

Starting point is 00:42:45 of de-lever and then have to get bailed out and pumped up with more stimulus. But yeah, I mean, Bitcoin's just kind of doing its own thing. And you know, you don't really have to care about all these bureaucrats and everyone else if you just, you know, pass. massively allocating to Bitcoin, it's kind of solving for itself. The cost of capital now with these Bitcoin derivatives, yes, it's volatile, it's variable, the APR, the cost of capital in Bitcoin markets, but it's free. I mean, if you want a long Bitcoin, if you want to get stable coin liquidity in Bitcoin markets and crypto markets, do you want to borrow against your Bitcoin, well, you can do

Starting point is 00:43:19 that sometimes you can do that 20%. Sometimes you can do that at 5%. But the cost of capital is not set by the Fed funds rate anymore. And that's the most exciting thing. And increasingly, more and more people are realizing that. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up.

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Starting point is 00:47:01 In fact, the people on Twitter, they're just tap dancing on your grave, Will. They're buying your long liquidation. Yeah. You know, I think this kind of is a bit more philosophical, but, you know, I think the long liquidations are kind of a beautiful thing because it kind of reinforces this concept. that we now have in this kind of free and open market that you have personal responsibility. Amen. If you make this decision to leverage and take a directional bed and think that you have some kind of edge in the market and then you can outsmart the market, well, you're going to be

Starting point is 00:47:31 held accountable for that no matter which way that resolves. I think that's a beautiful thing. And so, like, you have all this stuff going on in the derivatives market. And the way I kind of view it is like the Ray Dalio, like, long-term debt cycle thing. You know, like the visual he has where it's, you have the, you have the, This long-term kind of thing that kind of moves up into the right, it fluctuates, but then you have these short-term cycles that kind of move around the major long-term thing. And so like, I think first of all, you have this real hardcore base of hobblers that are

Starting point is 00:48:00 in this asset. You can see that non-chain data. If you look at the entities with 0.1 to 1 BTC, their holdings are literally up into the right, no matter what. They uptake a little more in the bull markets, but even in the Bayard, they don't even bunch. just go up into the right. You take like the portion of supply held by entities with less than 10 BTC. Over time, that's only increasing. And so you have this that's talking about a whole

Starting point is 00:48:26 another discussion about the supply distribution. And we can talk later about that's a bunch of nonsense about people saying like a certain, you know, a bunch of Bitcoin is held by a small portion of people. But over time, you have this hardcore base of people that are just stacking Bitcoin no matter what. And so you have that paired with kind of the long and short term holder behavior that we talked about. And that's kind of Bitcoin's longer-term cyclical behavior that you kind of see as kind of outlines the behavior of Bitcoin's price action. And then meanwhile, on the short-term timeframes, you have all these apes that are coming in on leverage and driving the price in. It's like, we're on this rocket ship. And then you have these apes coming

Starting point is 00:49:03 in, and we have to shake off the apes through the liquidations. And so that's kind of like the mental framework I have for it is that at the end of the day, adoption for Bitcoin is only increasing, and that's only going up into the right. And we have fluctuations between some of the behaviors we touched on earlier. And then on the very short-term timeframes, we have all the stuff that's generally driven by the derivatives behavior. And so for long-term holders, none of this stuff matters. You just keep buying. And that goes to the very broad cyclical behavior that we talk about Bitcoin, is that adoption is up and to the right. All these different metrics we talk about, even just like the number of entities on the network, that all this stuff is up into the right.

Starting point is 00:49:44 But when you look, zoom in on these shorter term timeframes, that's what's really driving a lot of this stuff. I've seen a couple of these kind of like poster or memes on Twitter where it's showing you like, this is Bitcoin, you know, zoomed in and it's like really choppy. This is Bitcoin zoomed in a year out. It's like kind of cyclical. And then this is Bitcoin on a 50 year time horizon, And then you see like this FS curve. And so for the long-term holder guys, you know, this stuff might be interesting. You might want to understand what's driving the price action. But at the end of the day, none of it really matters because adoption for Bitcoin is only

Starting point is 00:50:19 increasing. And you can see that as well in the data. I love that point. And the point about the number of users is just up into the right is the part that I think is just insanely important for people that are maybe looking at this from the outside and just saying, I don't get it. I don't understand why anybody would pay attention to this. It's just imaginary magic money.

Starting point is 00:50:38 And that's the thing that I think is just you just can't unsee what that chart looks like. Yeah, Will, I love those points. I'm curious what you guys think about the ETF, specifically the Spot ETF that was just declined by the SEC. I don't really think that anyone was surprised by that. And you kind of saw that through the market on kind of the intraday reaction to it where the spot ETF rejection actually kind of marked the intraday bottom on that day. because I think, I don't think anyone was really surprised or any sophisticated investors, at least were surprised by seeing that get rejected. I think that's something that most of the market probably isn't expecting to see for

Starting point is 00:51:15 at least another year out or so. So, yeah, I mean, I'm not really surprised to see that. Obviously, we would love to have a spot Bitcoin ETF, and I think you'll see massive inflows to it whenever it is approved. But, you know, I don't think it was surprising to see that get declined. I think Barry's definitely up to something. I think Barry is watching these ETF rejections and kind of taking notes and kind of tweaking his approach for converting gray scale to an ETF. But I guess time will tell with that.

Starting point is 00:51:44 Hey, I noticed your frog meme of Barry the other night. Just so you know, I almost shot my drink out of my nose when I saw that. I mean, I guess the question is why are they waiting? Like, what are they protecting? They're not protecting anyone from anything, I guess. I mean, I guess Gary Genser wants you to hold your own keys is what I gather. You could make the argument that for the people that don't maybe have access to buying spot, they're actually doing a disservice and they're actually adding because they're forcing

Starting point is 00:52:13 them into a product, into an ETF product that is futures based and doesn't have good tracking error or has very bad tracking error. I think the futures ETF is a terrible product for anyone who's looking to invest in Bitcoin long term. because for anybody who doesn't, who isn't really familiar with futures and futures isn't my expertise, but essentially what happens is every time, every time it gets the month, then they have to roll the contract to the next month. And so over time, whenever the futures curve is in contango, what's happening is they're selling the current one and buying the next month's

Starting point is 00:52:49 contract. And so you're basically taking the hit on the difference between those every time they roll it over each month. And so the only people that are really benefiting for that are the people that are coming in in this kind of market neutral way and buying spot selling the future and they can kind of capture the difference between the two because the curve is getting bit out into contango. Preston, I know you love that word contango. I think that's going to apply much later in the cycle, but I think it's going to be the thing that ultimately just takes the thing to an unprecedented level when it never. Is there any merit to the U.S. holding off on it because they just know how much capital is going to flow in and they know the state of, like,

Starting point is 00:53:31 I mean, maybe that's just a little too, like, out there in terms of, no, I don't think that's, dude, I don't think that's out there at all, but I don't think you're ever going to hear anybody, especially from the SEC, come out and say something like that. So, no, I don't think that's out there at all, at all, Dylan. I mean, yeah, I guess just in a world where, Preston, you've, you've ragged on the bond market more than anyone, but, you know, how do you keep the thing glued together if they, you know, on the same rails have, you know, the escape valve. And for a while, I mean, the escape valve's been out there for a decade, but, you know, there has been a lot of, a lot of trouble to kind of access it. And it hasn't, it's been more of a niche retail thing.

Starting point is 00:54:08 And now just like recently over the last year or two has become more institutionalized and accepted, but I mean, for, you know, the trillion dollar, 10 trillion dollar pools of capital, they still can't buy it. And, you know, like, as a retail individual, like selfishly, great, you know, like, but yeah, I mean, there is definitely some, some, I think there's, it's, it's more than just investor protection if Gary Gensler, whoever else is parroting that. So I actually have a question for the two of you. So I'm trying to think of in the next five or 10 years, do you see Bitcoin's volatility increase or decrease? And so I, I tend to think that it decreases because you have just this new kind of market participant here that they're not going to chase the price up. I think you saw that

Starting point is 00:54:51 over summer. That's kind of why we had this like prolonged kind of rounded bottom where they had these bids set at the bottom of, you know, 30, 32K and they didn't chase the price up to the top of the range. They just slowly waited for price come back down and hit those bids. And you saw that whale accumulation on chain. And then conversely earlier this year, we had these patient sellers that kind of form this rounded distribution top. And so moving forward, I think there's a, there's a really strong case that we see decreased volatility. But conversely, there's this chart. And Dylan, you posted it a couple months ago, and Preston, I remember seeing you retweeted in it. It's the German mark measured in gold, the chart that we've all seen that, you know, it just absolutely

Starting point is 00:55:30 goes parabolic, but you're actually looking at the volatility that occurred during that period of time. And it's really aggressive. You saw these massive 50 to 80 percent whipsaw moves, which is essentially just the collapse of the currency getting reflected in the pricing of that asset, which in that case was gold. I actually tweeted. this out to Saylor, Saylor said that he didn't see it playing out that way. Why do you think he said that? I asked that question for a reason. So love Michael. Michael has a stupidly massive position, not stupid in the sense of like he's being, I think he's being extremely smart, but his size of his position is just astronomical, right? If you had a position that size, what would you be publicly saying,

Starting point is 00:56:16 knowing that every politician in the United States or wherever is listening to you, are you going to go say, yeah, you know what? I think this could bring down the whole financial system. I think this could turn into a Weimar, Germany chart. I know I wouldn't be saying that if I was him. Michael keeps talking about the dollar, and I completely agree with you, Preston. He's saying Bitcoin is not an attack on the dollar while literally conducting the largest speculative attack on the dollar in Bitcoin terms. Maybe I think we've ever been. seen publicly, and it's completely the right decision to do it. He's calling the capital markets bluff. But I think in terms of volatility, in purchasing power terms, Bitcoin's volatility

Starting point is 00:56:57 is going to continue to decrease. It's going to appreciate the upside by orders of magnitude. But in terms of the day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month volatility in purchasing power terms, I think in 2030, it's essentially maybe 2035, whatever the timeline is, it's essentially going to be appreciating by a few percentage points a year based on human productivity gains. But in terms of BTCUSD volatility for the next decade, I think you're basically going to see this everything bubble, continue to unwind and re kind of hyperinflate on the asset side of things. And now it's happening in just broad money supply. It's hitting the CPI gauge now. You're going to see that volatility expressed. As Bitcoin goes from a $60,000 asset, it's going to go to $500,000 and a million. And eventually

Starting point is 00:57:45 that volatility and the Bitcoin derivatives market, when the Bitcoin derivative longs get liquidated, the equity market index will draw down in tandem because it's basically going to be the most pure form of the Fiat everything bubble that we've ever seen. And I think we're still in the price discovery mode of Bitcoin where it monetization is still, you know, it's still a very small percentage of the population and the global capital market assets. But as it increasingly consumes all of it. It's like, you know, basically the Fiat, the Bitcoin price will be like just a measure of how much the Fed and other central banks are going to print. And, you know, they're going to continue printing for as long as they can, maybe in fits and starts. But I think the volatility will only

Starting point is 00:58:25 increase in that sense. I saw this article earlier today that was sent to me and it was, I think it was saying like ECB was basically like inadvertently blaming crypto for some of the inflation or something like that. And, you know, I was just thinking like, this is just just the start of these kind of narratives. As we start to see Bitcoin's monetization really accelerate, you're going to start to see these people that are, you know, hanging on to the ship as it's sinking. They're going to come out and say everything under the sun, including, oh, well, these Bitcoin guys, they're the reason why the system is collapsing, right? And that's going to be kind of, I think, the last narrative that we see before the demise of the dollar.

Starting point is 00:59:06 So as far as volatility going up in the next five, I really think the time frame here of this really starting to just literally go to the moon is probably five years. People that are saying that it's going to take 15 or 20 years, I'm just like, you obviously don't understand where the bond market is today. And I find that the timeline, I think, is way more based off of the macro backdrop than necessarily the halving cycle of Bitcoin. I think that that's just keeping it kind of plugging away. And it's just, every time that having event happens, what it's really doing is it's locking in more trust.

Starting point is 00:59:45 It's locking in more people that trust it more than the old system. But where the old system, looking at Bitcoin versus the older system, where that's going to really kind just totally break down is when the old system gets so mutilated that nobody wants to participate in it because they just know it's just a total fantasy land farce manipulated to the nth degree type system. And I think you're already kind of getting there right now. When I look at like the bond yield curve in Europe, dude, it's done. It's toast. The whole thing, all durations. It's just totally toast. And now you're watching like the 30 year to like their 15 or 10 year is starting to penetrate the resistance line that you've had for literally decades. Yeah, I mean, that's insane.

Starting point is 01:00:32 It's totally insane. You're not quite there in the U.S. with the government issue. debt here in the U.S. But when I kind of model out where I think those yields are moving, like this coming summer, the summer of 22 into the fall of 22 is where I'm seeing the U.S. bond yield curve is going to get quite interesting. So five years from now, I mean, and where do they go from there? They can't go anywhere from there. Like the free and open market's already selling off in the bond market on those longer durations. It's selling off like crazy and the Fed hasn't even moved. They're still stuck at zero. And so now the market, gets totally wagging their tail, and it used to always be the exact opposite, where they would,

Starting point is 01:01:13 they'd have their forward guidance, they'd do it for months and months, half a year, whatever, then they'd finally move at a quarter of base, or 25 basis points, and everything would kind of gyrate around, and then they'd wait for the next big forward guidance. But this is way different. This is way different. The supply chains are jacked. I kind of suspect that as these things really kind of get into the final phase where they really start to die, it's in the supply chains because all those price signals that cost the capital, like you had mentioned, Will, it's just totally mutilated. It's toast.

Starting point is 01:01:44 And so these companies that have like all these contracts for commodities that, in a lot of cases are firm fixed price terms that are three-year contracts for $50 million worth of this part, 100 million dollars worth of that part, right? And then they have to assemble it. And then they have to, and you keep going up that supply chain, any little disruption downstream wrecks havoc on everything that has that part that opens up as you go further up the supply chain. I mean, we're there. We're seeing it.

Starting point is 01:02:13 You're seeing all the reports now that like nobody expects this thing to remedy itself in 22. And I expect it to actually, and I don't sound like a pessimist here, like an alarmist, but like I expect us to get way worse. I think it's going to get way worse. The craziest thing is seeing, and I agree, Preston, the craziest thing is seeing white, House officials or, you know, some senators and they'll say, this new stimulus, this new $2 trillion stimulus tax, it'll fix the supply chain issues, which were caused by Keynesianism to, hey, we're going to go stimulate and throw a bunch of new money at goods to stimulate the

Starting point is 01:02:51 economy, quote unquote. And it's like the solution to increasing the money supply by 30% and seeing all of this crazy inflation is to print more money. And it feels like I'm, it feels like I'm crazy tone. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It feels like everyone's still plugged in. I'm just like, how do you measure inflation? And it's like, how is no one else seeing this? I mean, and increasingly people are, but there's still, you know, the Wall Street guys

Starting point is 01:03:15 that have been in the system for 20, 30 years. I mean, there's a lot of people that have an irrational amount of trust and then incumbent, just, you know, incumbent institutions, I guess I would say. And thank God, you know, that we have this thing that doesn't require any trust. and we can verify ourselves and run our own nodes and hold her own keys and move anywhere in the world with all our wealth in our head. I mean, in a time like this, without Bitcoin, I would be quite pessimistic. I can't lie. All I have to say is, you know, our purchasing power is increasing, though.

Starting point is 01:03:47 It is. I had a buddy send me a message. He's like, hey, I'm talking with this hardcore value investor. Like, what would you ask them? And I said, oh, that's easy. I said, how in the world is he doing an IRA calculation when we just, had a CPI print of 6.2%. Because any stock, I don't care what it is that you pull up. I mean, you're getting IRAs of 3%, 2%, right? And you just had a CPI print of 6.2 and it doesn't

Starting point is 01:04:12 look like any of that's going to change. And so like, my question to these people doing these equity valuations is like, okay. So what do you do when you got a negative 400 basis point spread between which you are finding the value of what it's trading for on the open market versus just inflation alone. Not even talking about operational risk or anything else that's associated with, it's crazy. I just don't know how people can walk around and have their blinders on that strong and not start asking a whole lot of questions. Hey, is there a metric that you two disagree on? Because I know you guys talk all the time. Yeah, I don't really think there's too much that we disagree on just because we're texting pretty much every day. So we're pretty much

Starting point is 01:04:55 Joey's bouncing ideas off each other. And if there is anything like that, we pretty much kind of like, you know, flatten out that kink whenever it occurs. So yeah, I don't really think there's anything, to be honest. All right. So how about this? What is the most misunderstood aspect of on-chain analysis that you think the mainstream Bitcoin Twitter folks don't understand or misunderstand? I know what my answer is. I want to hear what you guys got. I think it's the fact that it should not be used on the very short-term timeframes. I think whenever we have a short-term drawdown, I usually get people mentioning, oh, but that's supply shock, though, what happened to that?

Starting point is 01:05:36 And it's like, okay, when we're talking about a supply shock, we're talking about the amount of available supply to be bought is decreasing. And that doesn't necessarily mean that we have the other side of the equation, which is the demand. And so the way I kind of think of this is that we have the fuel kind of laid out via the supply side. And we had this through the end of the summer, but you also have this the other side of the equation, which is the demand that has to step in. And so oftentimes, you know, there can be these discrepancies or divergences between what happens with the price and what's going on with the supply dynamics.

Starting point is 01:06:13 One example would be over the summer. you had through a metric that I created with Willie Woo called Illiquid Supply Shock, which compares the highly liquid in liquid entities. So these are, in layman's terms, just entities that sell a lot of the coins that they take in and comparing that to the illiquid entities. So people that take in and hold at least 75% of the coins they take in. So they take in four coins, they hold at least three out of the four. So you had this really strong divergence between the two. And seeing that, you know, it didn't necessarily mean that we were going to see price appreciation within days, right? It just meant that in a broader sense over the next

Starting point is 01:06:57 couple months, as demand steps in, as long as you don't have more supply becoming liquid, then eventually you're going to see the marginal bidder having to bid the price up because there's not as much available circulating supply. Like, for example, like this metric, it seems kind of counterintuitive, but when you see supply becoming illiquid, it doesn't always translate to price action immediately. But when you see supply becoming liquid, it does. Because if you just think from first principles, what that means is that supply that was previously held by entities who don't sell are now moving their coins usually onto exchanges to be sold versus if you're seeing supply get locked up, that doesn't necessarily mean that the marginal bidder is stepping

Starting point is 01:07:39 in aggressively to bid the price up. So, I mean, that's just one example. But, I think in general, on-chain analytics, we have some shorter-term metrics that we look at, but generally, when I think of what's the sweet spot for this type of analysis, it's really kind of three to six months out. That's where I think we kind of have the best hit rate. When you backtest some of these things, for example, like the liquid supply shock ratio, I mentioned, since 2018, that has about a 91% correlation between price on kind of a week-to-week interval. So, like, these things don't always translate immediately to price because as we mentioned,

Starting point is 01:08:16 I look at it as on-chain as kind of this underlying broader kind of behavioral cycle, where you have the derivative stuff that's really key. And also we talk about like price levels and watching like the order books, all these kinds of things really impact the price on the very short-term time frame. So that would be my answer. I would agree on that. I think one of the things that, as someone that wants to accumulate, more Bitcoin as I would, you know, I would consider myself basically to be a Bitcoin maximalist.

Starting point is 01:08:47 I prefer honestly like monetary rationalist maybe in the sense, like monetary maximalism in the sense that I think money is a winner-take-all dynamic and Bitcoin has already won in the sense, you know, from a game theoretic perspective. But I think the fascinating thing with on chain is I'm looking to increase my stack as much as possible. And so there's times in the, you know, in the Bitcoin kind of cycle where like at the top of say 2017 or 2018, there could still be capital flooding like into the network to buy Bitcoin allocate to Bitcoin, but price could be drawing down a lot where at the same time you could have price bidding up to insane levels going parabolic with, you know, the same amount of capital flowing it.

Starting point is 01:09:32 And it's just because of the on-chain, what on-chain quantifies is the other side of the equation, touched on is the supply and what it's moving. The characterization of a Bitcoin bull market, a reflexive one is that, you know, there's this huge wave of demand crashing into a tiny, like, pinhole of available supply. And so it's like, you know, like the movie theater's on fire and everyone's trying to run out. And I guess maybe the movie theater on fire is fiat. But everybody's trying to run into, you know, the available free flow of Bitcoin. That's, you know, basically ever decreasing, but it's variable in the sense of, you know, one to three to six month timeframe where you have, you know, old coins, maybe taking profits

Starting point is 01:10:11 and whatnot. So we can kind of see that from an on-chain side of things, which makes it really fascinating. Well, and both of you guys, I agree with you 100%. So my frustration when I'm on Twitter is the timeframe that I operate is just these really long timeframes. Like I'm looking for, in short term for me is a year. So if I'm posting on something I'm saying, hey, this thing's about to, you know, Bitcoin's about to make a run.

Starting point is 01:10:35 I'm saying like in the coming months, right? I'm saying like the next three months. You do that parabola. You do that parabola with the upper and lower bands. I don't even know. It was like middle of summer and you posted it. Oh, back in 20 or whatever. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:10:51 Yeah. And you posted it in like linear terms, the the parabola. Yeah. And it just looked so stupidly. Yeah. You looked like the biggest like moon boy permable. And you're like, listen, this is this having mechanic. It's happening, whether you like it or not, quantitative tightening.

Starting point is 01:11:08 Look at past cycles. We're going up in log terms. Here's what I'm thinking. And for like, for months on end, as Bitcoin was ripping past 20,000 all-time highs, it was on the money. Yeah. And you nailed it. And so, you know, that sort of stuff like, you know, in Bitcoin, like, it feels like

Starting point is 01:11:26 people have already figured this out. It feels like, oh, the halving's coming. Everybody knows what happened. What's going to happen. But like, no one knew what was going to happen outside of like the, internet nerds that are paying attention to this thing. But I can't imagine what it's going to be on the next having event. But can you imagine like how many more, I just look at how many people have kind of come into

Starting point is 01:11:47 the space just in the last two years that weren't, they were nowhere to be found back in the 2017 run. I mean, it's just- You're in diapers. No, I'm serious. There's just so many people that have kind of come on in the last year and a half that I've added so much tremendous value. And I just can't imagine how many more people they're going to tell, how many more people are going to show up when we get to the next having event. And assuming

Starting point is 01:12:12 the bond market doesn't like literally just explode, right? Like I just, this thing is gaining steam and it goes back to Will's comment he had. Like, look at the user adoption rate up to the right, has been for a decade, hasn't slowed down. Like, if you were looking at a company, and you're looking at their top line or you're looking at like how many more users are signing up for quote unquote Facebook or Twitter or whatever it was. Like everyone would be like, well, I've got to own that. But for some reason because this thing's quote unquote competing with government money, like it's almost like, oh, well, yeah, I understand all those metrics, but there's just no way

Starting point is 01:12:50 because they're coming to it with the opinion that there's just no way. And they're like, that's their argument. It's like you might want to pull on that thread a touch more. I think like one other thing is like the barriers. to entry to understand Bitcoin now is way lower than it was years ago. I mean, we have so many podcasts now. I can't, I mean, I can't even listen to them. Yeah, there's no way that you kind of have to pick and choose now what you want to listen to and order. About your own ego. That's what it's about. It's about your own ego. Oh, my God. Amen to that. And it's amazing how Bitcoin will

Starting point is 01:13:25 just, it will expose that so fast. I mean, I've, I've seen it so many times. over just the last the five, six years, it was just like, these people come into the space and just like, if you have an ego, this thing just rips you apart, like, instantly. And then they double down. They double down. And it's just like, there's too many people that know too much about like all the different arguments around this that, uh, it's crazy. I got a couple questions on this one for you guys.

Starting point is 01:13:54 Taproot with, uh, the impact on, on chain data and analytics. I think, I think there's a bit of a. misconception here. So, like, the only way it really affects us is in the sense that, and when I'm saying us, it's the people actually doing the heuristics at Glastom, me and Del and they're really just reading charts. But it affects the ability to identify the difference between a multi-sig transaction and a normal transaction, as well as a lightning transaction and a regular transaction. So it doesn't actually affect our ability to analyze a lot of these metrics we're talking about. But in terms of distinguishing between those multi-sig and lightning transactions,

Starting point is 01:14:32 it does. So for some of the lightning data, it affects it a bit, but also it's not going to affect things when you're looking at, like, capacity or number of channels or number of nodes and all those consolating metrics. Do you guys have, do you guys have any channels that you've opened up? Yeah, yeah, I got about 55 lighting channels. Oh, that's right, Dylan. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think we have a channel, right? We have a channel. There you got, like three million sats. What am I asking here? Did I open it or did you open it? Or do no, no, we, we have. We both opened one. I think so.

Starting point is 01:15:04 Yeah, we did. I mean, that's a whole other rabbit hole, and it's pretty fascinating to go down about the disintermediation of, not only central banking, but all these kind of rent-seeking payment processors like Visa, Amex, all that. So I had a chat with Pierre Rochard just like probably two days ago, and I said, Pierre, what if I open a channel with somebody else and that person decides to close the channel three months later, but the Bitcoin that I used to open that channel was purchased, let's just say, to use an exaggeration, let's say it was Bitcoin that was purchased at $10, right? And the price

Starting point is 01:15:40 now is $60,000. And let's say I opened the channel for a full Bitcoin with this other node. I don't even know who they are. But then they closed the channel. They forced close the channel. I said, now I've got other channels with other people. So my balance, if I was routing payments through my node, and let's say all that, that one full Bitcoin was on my side, on my node side, but through routing transactions, it all got pushed to this other person, and then they closed the channel. I said, what's my tax responsibility? Because the on-chain layer one looks like I sold my one Bitcoin to that person, right? Pierre started laughing. He's like, did you have no tax burden? I said, hold on a second. Hold on a second. If somebody was

Starting point is 01:16:22 doing analytics on layer one, and they saw when that one coin was purchased, and they saw that the coin is now in the ownership of another address that I don't control, it looks like there was a sale where there would be a $59,800 gain for that transaction, right? Even though my net balance on my node is still one Bitcoin because if it flowed through my node and out to the other person, I still have a Bitcoin on my node, right? but for like it would what are you implying Preston? I think I'm no and I'm not trying to raise a concern or like I'm not trying to raise something that I just I don't think anybody's considering like the ramifications of that

Starting point is 01:17:12 as maybe we go into laws restrictions to tax responsibilities like for people that are just running a node right and opening channels but yet my net balance hasn't changed whatsoever. Now, when I'm looking at it from just like an intuitive standpoint, like, I don't feel like I have any type of tax burden because my net balance hasn't changed at all, right? But if you're using layer one transactions to make decisions as to whether you need to ping somebody for a payment for a capital gains, like you can see where the confusion would arise. Yeah, I don't think the current system in terms of like the regulatory structure is set up for for this new system that we're heading into, I think there's a lot of discrepancies and we just

Starting point is 01:17:58 need more Bitcoin-friendly people in the regulatory landscape. And I raise it more for, like, let's say I know there's senators and representatives that follow my account, so I'm sure maybe they listen to some of the shows. And I think this is a really important thing for people to think about when they hear, that's one heck of a quandary to be in. It's like, I didn't sell anything. Like, I still, you know, using the one Bitcoin example, I still got the one Bitcoin on the node, but somebody else has the original one that I purchased from whenever, right? And there's, it might look like there's a capital game, but there isn't.

Starting point is 01:18:33 So, like, people who want to come in and try to regulate this space aggressively and quickly are totally misunderstanding, like, how, like, important it is to not get that wrong. Because if you do get it wrong here, like, there's going to be other countries that get it very right, and they're not going to be stifling what, whatever. eventually you're going to have to go back to anyway. They're just not going to trip and fall in the process. It goes back to like the sovereign individual with the whole like regulatory arbitrage thing. That's exactly right.

Starting point is 01:19:04 And the game theory kicks in and all that. Sorry to go off in that direction. That's interesting. I've never thought about that. It's an interesting thing that just kind of popped up this week. And I was talking. And Pierre, I mean, he is very involved in lightning development with Cracken. And, you know, I was just asking him, I was like, hey, so how do you think about this?

Starting point is 01:19:23 And he's just like, Preston, did you see the news that, and I'm 99% sure this was released, that lightning or that, that tether will be coming to lightning. So I think about it. Hold on. So what does explain this? I don't understand what you mean. So there was a new Bitcoin company, I think, oh, God, off the top of my head, I forget. It was John Carvalho.

Starting point is 01:19:46 Yeah, that infamous, like, interview with Roger when he was, like, flipping off the camera. But, John, I'm going to fumble this whole company, so check it out. But the Tether CTO, Powell, gosh, I'm bad with names at the moment. But the guy that basically runs Tether and Bitfinex is like technical side of things. Been around the space for a while. They're basically, I think they announced that they're going to bring, you know, because Tether, USDC, they're using all these different blockchains. like Tether, USTC has Ethereum, ERC 20 rails.

Starting point is 01:20:21 It has on TRX rails. Try sending a stable coin on the Ethereum blockchain the other day. It cost me $25, but that's a different topic. But basically, I think you're going to see eventually, you're going to see either it's going to be some sort of synthetic stable coin, USD value that's pegged. There's going to be kind of like counterparties on both sides of this, almost like in a derivative type way.

Starting point is 01:20:44 and you're going to see dollar, you know, synthetic dollar settlement on lightning rails. Because again, like Jack Muller's hammers this point home all the time. He's like, we settle basically free.

Starting point is 01:20:56 I mean, it's not free, but we settle basically free. Relative to everything else it is, yeah. You know, like Preston, if me and you are sending payments to each other every day,

Starting point is 01:21:04 well, we can set up a public lightning channel, but we can set up a private lightning channel. And you don't even, no one can see this. It's routed over tour, and we're just streaming value to each other. And we can do it a million times

Starting point is 01:21:14 a second if we have the bandwidth to do it. So, I mean, something like, you know, whether it's tether or whether it's, you know, another kind of stable coin or someone that comes down the line and then settle synthetic dollars, euros, yen, whatever it is, it's all going to come to lightning rails. And I think this is me an remediation of kind of all that and the Lexi financial system where I send funds to go, you know, buy Bitcoin on Coinbase if I want to do that. And it takes five days for me to be able to withdraw that Bitcoin, but does my bank transfer slow. Like, that's, that's all coming to an end faster than most can imagine. If you have an article

Starting point is 01:21:50 on that, I would love to read it and share it for people, if you can find one. We'll have that in the show notes. This is the, this is the hardest question I got for you guys. Will, were you expecting the rap video from me? Man, I was, I was dying when I saw that. You have no idea. Dude, check this out. You have no idea how hard I worked on that. That's what I was going to say. The real funny part of that is just when I was thinking, like, he must have put like 45 minutes or an hour into this video. Oh, it was more than that. Oh, wow.

Starting point is 01:22:26 You edited it in everything. I think it was a Sunday night. And you had your post and I was just laughing, right? And I was like, I can bang something out. And I was looking at the time. And it was, I don't know, it was like 7 o'clock or something like. It's like, I don't have anything like rare. night where I don't have anything on my plate to knock out. I was like, you know what? I'm just going to

Starting point is 01:22:47 have a little fun tonight. Let me see what I can do here. And I think it was like 11 o'clock when I finished up and I was like, oh, here we go. And I just posted it. And like, I got no response from you. And I was like, how is he not responding to my rap video? Yeah, so I saw it the next morning. I was like, how did I not see this? And then people started, you know, I retweeted it. And then people were like, oh, my gosh, this is hilarious. Like, I think I laughed for a good tour. three minutes straight. And it was like, the editing was on point, too. Like, the lyrics itself were pretty funny, but just like, you had yourself like edited

Starting point is 01:23:24 in the car. And yeah, it was hilarious, man. I had so much fun. Guys, this has been so much fun for me. Will, I remember the first text message you sent the first time we chatted. The first article, you were like, hey, can you read this? And if you like it, retweet it. It is just so exciting for me to see you two add so much value to the space and get recognized for it.

Starting point is 01:23:51 And then just take it to a whole new level. It is just so much fun to be an observer of this. And if there was any type of small part that I played, like, I'm just thrilled. I'm just thrilled. No. I'm thrilled to be a part of it. And I just cannot even imagine where you two will be when you're 30. 40 years old. Like, I just cannot imagine where you guys are going to be. Thank you for making time.

Starting point is 01:24:18 Appreciate you having us on, man. It's surreal. It's pretty surreal. Just like, I mean, we talk before, I think, you know, we were interacting with you like in February March and like, yo, what was your story? You know, like, like, yeah, this guy pressed in a lot. And I was like, oh, my God, same. So, you know, it's pretty cool, you know, being here late 2021 talking to you on the, on the, on the and famous investors podcast. Before we got on here, me and Delmer chat for like 20 minutes and we were just like, this is nuts, man. I can't believe we're about to get on this podcast for pressing.

Starting point is 01:24:52 This is so crazy. Well, we need to do it more often. You guys, I mean, your comments, your knowledge, how in the hell do you have this knowledge at 20? I can't even understand how you would have this knowledge at 20. But we need to keep doing it. When we're legal to drink, we've got to get a drink. Hey, yeah.

Starting point is 01:25:10 You know, I should have had a drink here tonight. and just been, you know, showing off in front of you two. Thank you so much, Preston. I really enjoyed this. This is amazing. It's a blast. We definitely need to do it again. Do you guys go into Miami?

Starting point is 01:25:23 Yeah, I'll be there. There you go. We're going to hang out in Miami. Are you 21 in April? Yeah. I can be. Does it matter? All right, guys.

Starting point is 01:25:35 Thank you so much. Oh, I want you guys to be able to provide a handoff. Will, you're working on a podcast. You just interviewed Plan B and Willie Wu. Tell people what you have going on and then Dylan, you followed up. Thanks for the plug. Yeah. So I kind of had all the content stuff at Blockware through a little branch we call Blockware Intelligence. So we have A, a newsletter, which I send out to about, I think we just passed 53,000 subscribers. That's like a weekly kind of market overview

Starting point is 01:26:01 based on on chain as well as we have some Bitcoin related equity content. And we just hired on Joe Burnett, who is like I-I-I-I capital on Twitter to do some some mining content as well. And then we have a podcast that I interview different people in the space every week. Preston, we got to get you on there, maybe some time next month. Awesome. Yeah. And then as well, we do like a weekly like kind of market overview and video version as well.

Starting point is 01:26:27 So feel free to check any of that stuff out if you're interested in any market-related stuff. And then I'm on Twitter at W. Clemente I-I-I-I. Dylan. Yeah. So I'm working with Bitcoin Magazine. join there in about March. Right now I'm heading the deep dive.

Starting point is 01:26:45 So we also put out content, Bitcoin content, you know, legacy finance stuff, on-chain, derivative markets. We do that on a daily basis. And we have, you know, free and paid tiers. So we send out like, you know, an email, a market update a week to just everybody. And we, you know, also kind of just like doing stuff with Bitcoin magazine, like hopping on spaces, podcasts, all that. I just recently joined kind of a Bitcoin, kind of a Bitcoin fund where we try to implement some of the stuff we talked about today. So I started to work with them a little bit. But yeah, I mean, appreciate you having me on. I guess, you know, give me a follow on Twitter, hit my DMs, which are, you know, kind of flooded. But I'll try to get back to you if, you know, to give back a little bit, you know, if you have any questions or whatnot, you know, reach out. But, you know, again, really appreciate you having a songpress. And this was a blast.

Starting point is 01:27:35 Absolutely. All right. Until next time. If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use. Just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin-specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I'd love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable, if you

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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast)

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