We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC091 (Part 2): Bitcoin Mastermind Group 3Q 2022 w / Jay Gould, Jeff Ross, and Joe Carlasare

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey, everyone, real fast. This is part two of the mastermind discussion for the third quarter of 2022 with Joe Carlisari, Jeff Ross and Jay Gold. If you haven't listened to the first part, I highly recommend that you go back right into your podcast app and listen to the first part before listening to this one. If you've already done that, welcome to part two, and I hope you enjoy the rest of the show. You're listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. What other ones you want to look at, Joe?

Starting point is 00:00:46 So the one I wonder, just in terms of the interesting movement you see, and I look at one of things I follow very closely is this Eurodollar futures chart. Can you pull that one up right there? Yep. Okay. So basically, let me explain what you're looking at here. So here I have the spread between the December 2020-2020 contract for Eurozone. dollar futures and the March, 2023 contract.

Starting point is 00:01:13 And the way to look at this is sort of there's a chart here that goes up into the right, which is the right way you should see the euro dollar futures contracts. They should always be advancing, right? Where as you go out into the future, they're sloping upward and to the right. They're not inverted. You don't expect cuts down the line. You would expect that a healthy, robust economy, euro dollar futures, which is a way to effectively bet on LIBOR, the price of money.

Starting point is 00:01:38 abroad in the Eurodollar system, you would expect it continually to be upward sloping, which would tell you that for the foreseeable future, the Fed is going to be either, you know, raising interest rates or pausing, right? That's not what you see here. What you saw here in this move in April, effectively, is the curve started a trend lower, trend toward a tightening, right, where you didn't expect as much hikes going out into March of 2023. And then in June, I believe it was, or late May, one of the two, you actually saw the curve invert. Now, what that practically means is that the market is anticipating in this very liquid deep market. It's saying that by the end of the year, we think the majority of the hikes are going to be in, and there's going to be some expectation

Starting point is 00:02:22 of cuts. This all went all the way down. I don't know if you can see the, did I cut off the edge there? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So what it ended up looking at is at one point it was inverted by as many is I think 25 bips. What effectively that means is that the market was anticipating the Fed was going to either pause or potentially even cut at some point between the December meeting this year and the March meeting in 2023. But with these recent prints in the last FOMC, we saw this huge rebound to now where as of today I think there's only four or five bips between it uninverts, right?

Starting point is 00:03:02 That's key because that is the market. market participants saying, no, we think these cuts can continue. We think they can continue even into next year into Q1 and potentially continue at the March meeting next year. So that's a sort of interesting price action, right? This is the market in real time, setting expectations in this deep, sophisticated market and market participants are saying, maybe we're wrong. Maybe we don't think we get a pause by the end of the year.

Starting point is 00:03:27 Maybe inflation isn't going to come down and we're going to have to continue with the Fed policies of tightening all the way into Q2 of next year. And based on your CPI chart, we were talking earlier. I mean, the UK just posted, I think it was last week, right? They were double digits on their inflation print, right? Yes, absolutely. What was the number? Was it 10 or 11% or something like that?

Starting point is 00:03:52 It was way up there. It was a monster number. I don't have candy, but. So what do you guys think this next print's going to be? Because I'll be honest with you, this last one at 9, I was, I was a little surprised. I thought it was going to be lower. I guess I'm looking at the spot commodities, like the raw commodities,

Starting point is 00:04:12 and I mean, they're falling through the floor, but it's all the finished parts and the complex parts that seem to be driving these prices, just the shortage of labor, just it seems like that's the thing that's just allowing these CPI prints to keep running higher and higher. So are we going to see a high? print in 9.1 on this next go-around? Because if we do, I mean, that's going to be really ugly in the bond market. I mean, it's going to sell off, don't you think? Or do you think

Starting point is 00:04:45 the short? No. Okay. So you think it's going to get. I think that the higher inflation stays for longer and will convince the Fed is effectively convince the market, the Fed is trapped. They can't, without losing all credibility, they cannot pivot, right? They can't. can't pause. If they do, I mean, in many ways, that's even, that would be disastrous. I think a pivot at this point right now. Oh, it would be saying, yeah, it'd be disastrous. I think if that happens, Preston, I think you see long end yields explode north of 5%. Yeah, yeah. If they pivot right now, that should, you know, because that's what you're effectively seeing in Japan. They're taking a total. Let's let's define disastrous because people hear that and it can mean a whole lot of different

Starting point is 00:05:28 things depending on which market you're talking about. So you said long, long duration bond. bonds are going to sell off like crazy. I agree. Equities, they're going to go up, right? If they pivot at this point. I think the long duration bonds will sell off if they pivot right now. Yeah. Correct. Without tackling inflation. Yes. They need to get inflation down. Otherwise, inflation is longer out. They'll just say the Fed has no confidence. The market doesn't believe they're going to take inflation seriously. Yeah. I think what you see right now, even in the movements of the tenure, you see, listen, we believe they're committed. We believe they're going to sack the economy, push us into recession, do whatever we want to do whatever they can to stop these high

Starting point is 00:06:07 CPI prints. It may take a lot longer, but that's what the long end is telling you. The long is telling you that eventually they will be successful. The forward expectations are telling you they're going to be successful. It's just a question of when, not really if. But if they pivot, oh man, I mean, that changes the entire ballgame. So, you know, if you're a fixed income investor, you're not, you're not begging for a pivot right now. Yeah. And so we don't think, I think collectively as a group. We don't think they're going to pivot. We think that they're going to continue to be pretty aggressive in their stance, right? Yeah, everyone's nod in their heads. So let's say the CPI does come in hot, similar to what we saw in the UK. Do we just see the bond yield curve

Starting point is 00:06:46 continue to invert between the long end and the short end? It just keeps getting more and more negative, like the 10 to 2 year that we were talking about earlier close to, what was it, negative 40.45%. could follow Canada down most inverted history. Which makes sense, right? With the highest inflation expectations last 50 years, you're probably going to have the most inverted curve in history for the United States Treasury. And I'll just, I'll throw it in there. It'll stay inverted, but it'll all rise higher, though, too, right?

Starting point is 00:07:15 So we're going to see the two-year yields go higher and the 10-year yields are going to, they're still going to be inverted and severely inverted. But if we see inflation continue to come in hot, that's basically the short end of the the yield curve, the two years, what I like to look at, they're going to keep going up to give the Fed permission to keep raising rates more. They're like, oh, shoot, this is sticky high inflation. You have to keep raising rates. You have to keep being more aggressive. So right now it's sitting at 3.2% for the two year, right? 3.21% right now, the two year yield. If it comes in hot, I think it goes, well, and it's going to go up to like 3.6%. And the 10 years are going to go from,

Starting point is 00:07:51 what are they, 2.75 right now? That'll go won't, and it'll go up to like 3% or something like that. but it's still going to be distorted and it's still saying a recession is coming. It's just saying the Fed needs to keep tightening for longer. Does that make sense? That's how I read it. Yeah. Okay. So while we were talking there, because I said I was going to try to build the Canadian yield

Starting point is 00:08:13 curve here while we were talking. So I did build it. Let me share it. Let's see here. Okay. So I don't have it. I'm assuming you're referencing the difference between the tenure and the two-year, Joe?

Starting point is 00:08:27 Yeah. Okay, so we can see here the 10-year, which is the lowest yield in Canada right now, 2.6%. The two-year is at 3.2% for... Like 46. Yeah. It's similar to the U.S.'s spread, but evidently they haven't had that. No, 56.

Starting point is 00:08:47 56 bibs. So it is high. Yeah, that's it. Yeah, 56 pips. Dang. That's a massive spread, right? like this. Yeah. Wow. Look at that. Look at that one, two, three, four. It's just, it's completely inverted. Fascinating, fascinating stuff. Let's put some of the charts away here. What are your

Starting point is 00:09:08 thoughts on what's happening in China with the real estate market? Any thoughts on that one? I just think was it unexpected, right? I mean, we all saw this coming from, it's sort of like we all saw what happened with COVID and the whole shutdown and then flooding people's accounts with with free money. We all knew what was coming after this. I feel like at China, they went through this decade of just massive, massive real estate building, ghost towns. We all saw pictures of it. You know, so at some point, this comes home, Zerousse, at some point, you have to pay the bills and they're seeing it right now. So everything's great when the markets are going up and the, you know, equities are going up and to the right and liquidity is flowing freely and banks are lending,

Starting point is 00:09:50 all that kind of stuff into Joe's point when volatility is low. But when all of that shifts and you transition to contraction times and higher volatility and banks aren't lending anymore, things get ugly. And that's when you see who's swimming naked, right? The tide just went out for the China real estate market. So that's how I look at it. I think it's inevitable. It's going to get worse before it gets better as well. I continually find China so hard to study and analyze just because their data is so questionable. I mean, it's a black box. It's really difficult and you never know what's manipulation, what's modified numbers, whether it's, you know, whether they're trying to project an image to the world for some purpose or some economic reason as opposed to, or geopolitical

Starting point is 00:10:31 reason, as opposed to actually, you know, here's what's really going on in the economy. How about here in the U.S. real estate wise? Well, I mean, obviously it's pulled back a little bit. I mean, there's a ton of metrics that show, you know, price cuts across the board. And, you know, that's not unexpected. I, the question for me, though, is, is, you know, where, where's the systemic risk, right? What, what transforms this from a garden variety correction or a mid-cycle correction that some of the CNBC people keep, keep pounding the desk on to something systemic? And, you know, I've heard arguments. I've heard conjecture.

Starting point is 00:11:07 I don't know. Maybe, Jeff, you've got some data that really makes you bearish on real estate. I don't know. I don't see it. I'm not too worried about real estate. I mean, I think it's clearly turned over already. It's, you know, it's over the hump and prices are declining. I don't think we're, I definitely don't think we're having another, you know, great financial crisis redo.

Starting point is 00:11:24 We're not going to have massive crashes and there's not going to be a subprime mortgage crisis. Banks aren't going to collapse, all that kind of stuff. So I'm not really worried about real estate. To me, more of the concern that I watch is the sovereigns. I wonder about emerging market debt. what's going to happen when if the dollar continues to strengthen and these developing nations continue deeper and deeper into a recession and they just can't pay back their debt and then

Starting point is 00:11:52 they start to default. What happens then? Do we get contagion at that point? That's what I'm kind of watching for. Can we talk about that for a second? Has the dollar put in a shorter intermediate term peak here? Has it? Yeah. In the short term? And before you answer, I just put up my momentum chart on the momentum start saying yeah it's still going up right oh yeah it's very green you got to pull up your momentum chart too on gasoline we got to talk about that in a little bit i can i can't pull that up i'll build it hold on but i mean if the if the dollar gets up to 115 120 which it certainly could right uh it's going to just destroy these some of these developed nations i think we're going to see, I think the action is in the credit market. Not to mention, by the way, high yield

Starting point is 00:12:39 debt. So there's a lot of zombie companies out there that have been kind of floating along since 2009, 2010 that shouldn't have continued floating along. At some point, they have to pay the Piper as well. I know we've talked about this. We went back and forth a little bit, Joe, but I think some of those companies are not going to make it if they have to try to roll over debt when we get into this, deeper into this recession. That's what I get concerned about. That's to me is what we could flip from just a, you know, a mild recession to a very serious recession is I'm looking at high yield and more importantly, I'm looking at sovereign debt. Okay. Well, Joe, what are your thoughts on the dollar, the chart that we've got up right now? You think it still has room to run? I think it's...

Starting point is 00:13:18 No, I, the stuff I look at says that we've put in the peak for the year. Really? Really? We could go much. Yeah. No, I have some, some, my own indicators and things I look at, I think we've peaked. That does not... That does not... That does not mean we roll over, right? It does not mean we go. But the same, let me put it this way. When we were texting back and forth and I was telling you gasoline and oil had peaked, the exact same triggers are hitting right now on the dollar.

Starting point is 00:13:46 So again, like this does not mean roll over. It doesn't mean that in the near term, dollars going back to 50 or 60 or 70. It's not, they could roll about down to, you know, 99, 95 sitting there and consolidate for a while. But for the short term, I think the dollars peaked. I don't actually disagree with that, by the way. If we do get this rally to sort of risk on rally for a while, that would suggest that the dollar is going to weaken.

Starting point is 00:14:12 That's usually kind of because they tend to go hand in hand. The dollar weekends, risk assets tend to spike. But then when we head into the next recession and things get serious, then the dollar rips higher again. Even in the face of everything that's happening over in Europe. Because like when I'm looking at like what's driving the DXY, so much of it is Japan. in Europe. And I just, like, when I'm looking at those two, I'm saying they're going to be way worse than the U.S. in the next six months. So like the dollar keeps... Way worse how? Way worse in the terms of their economy? Yeah. Yeah. Based on everything that's

Starting point is 00:14:47 happening, especially with the Ukraine situation. So that's the reason why I think the dollar keeps moving from here, but... Yeah. I mean, you talked with macro Alfonso Pickett, Yellow about this, But I think that the move lower already we've seen in the dollar, which is marginal at best right now. But I think it's being driven by this anti-fragmentation tool. So you know, you have that liquidity papering over some of the weakest parts of Europe, right? That's coming in now. We've seen the ECB attempt to sort of have this, you know, have their cake and eat it too now with being able to paper over some of the weaker parts of the country or the excuse me, the EU part of the parts of Europe. So I think that that's going to be, you know, that's driving some of this movement you see.

Starting point is 00:15:30 It's easing some of the pressure on the most vulnerable countries. Yeah, I don't know. That's going to be an interesting one to see. I'm not sure that I completely agree with you on that one, Joe. Okay, I'm sharing the oil. There you go. The oil chart here. And you are right.

Starting point is 00:15:47 In a text message, you nailed the living heck out of this stuff. And I said, well, I'm still on a momentum, I'm still thinking it's kind of green. But then this just triggered this past week that it turned red. So explain that. What just triggered? What does that mean? This is just that average true range, which is based off of the volatility of this particular of the oil chart.

Starting point is 00:16:13 So it was hanging in there. I wasn't willing to say that I think it's reversed, but I think it was Thursday last week or Friday last week that this finally went red. But yeah, you called it, man, in the text. And I was like, yeah, I don't know. We'll see. And maybe, I mean, who knows? I mean, this is just this is one metric.

Starting point is 00:16:32 It could still turn aggressively upward. But I'm with you. I think that you're in a negative trend there for oil now. And here's the, I don't have any momentum indicators here on this, but yeah. So natural gas, diesel fuel and gasoline being displayed from basically the start of the year. And you can see all of them are off of their highs and kind of going sideways or down across the board. What are your thoughts on this, Joe? Well, I mean, this just shows you, you go back and look at the last several recessions, right?

Starting point is 00:17:05 You see the commodity prices peak first, then you see CPI peak, and then several months thereafter we're ended up in a recession. That's the same sequence, right? It's coincides with the growth expectation in the market. These things are rolling over first and they roll over before CPI, which to the point we were talking about earlier, that can tell you that, you know, CPI could go for a little bit longer, even though the commodities are sort of your first warning sign that growth expectations are deteriorating moving into the next year. When inflation does peak and start to roll over, that's when you can expect us to be very close to a recession. I know people say we're in recession now, but, you know, there's other metrics

Starting point is 00:17:45 that NBR looks at to, you know, use their definition. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days. days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is. From June 1st through the 3rd, 2026, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its 18th year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world, many of them operating on the front lines of history. This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures. These aren't abstract ideas. These are tools real people are using right now. You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers,

Starting point is 00:18:48 the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with. Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands-on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations and conversations that continue long after the sessions end. And it's all happening in Oslo in June. If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person. Standard and patron passes are available at Osloof Freedom Forum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers. The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference, it's a place where ideas meet reality

Starting point is 00:19:27 and where the future is being built by people living it. If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately. How do we make AI useful in the real world? Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move. With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today. NetSuite is the number one AI Cloud ERP, trusted by over 43,000 businesses. It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system. And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.

Starting point is 00:20:01 It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI-powered decisions with confidence. And now with the Netsuite AI connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data. This isn't some add-on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business. And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get their free business guide, Dismifying AI at netsuite.com slash study.

Starting point is 00:20:34 The guide is free to you at net suite.com slash study. NetSuite.com slash study. When I started my own side business, it suddenly felt like I had to become 10 different people overnight wearing many different hats. Starting something from scratch can feel exciting, but also incredibly overwhelming and lonely. That's why having the right tools matters. For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all

Starting point is 00:21:06 e-commerce in the U.S. from brands just getting started to household names. It gives you everything you need in one place, from inventory to payments to analytics. So you're not juggling a bunch of different platforms. You can build a beautiful online store with hundreds of ready-to-use templates, and Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions and even enhance your product photography. Plus, if you ever get stuck, they've got award-winning 24-7 customer support. Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing sign up for your $1 per month trial today at Shopify.com slash WSB.

Starting point is 00:21:49 Go to Shopify.com slash WSB. That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right. Back to the show. Can I jump in here based on that last oil chart you showed just because I've tweeted this out a couple times. To Joe's point, recession, this recession is kind of following the textbook playbook of what recessions are supposed to do based on.

Starting point is 00:22:12 when we was talking about commodities. When oil was up in the 120s in 115-ish range, I was saying, what I'm watching for next is for oil to break. When oil breaks, that'll be the sign that we've kind of started the next phase of the recession. And then I show pictures of what the recession looked like from 2007 through kind of 2009. Phase one of that recession was oil was ripping higher. Commodities were going higher. People were concerned about inflation and stocks, and I like to look at the NASACs or the cues were declining substantially. They got hit hard. Then what happened, phase two was when oil peaked and then finally broke started coming down. That's basically from early 2018 through kind of late 2018. There's like a six month swath right there where oil was

Starting point is 00:22:57 breaking and stocks were rallying. They went up, kind of found another kind of a local high and then another lower high. That was phase two. That's what I think we're in right now. We're like, okay, I think inflation's actually going to be under control. Oil broke. The markets aren't as concerned about inflation currently. We're seeing equities rally. Risk assets are rallying. That lasts for about six months or so. At least that's what it did back then. And then phase three is when the floor drops out. Basically, oil, the people are like, oh, crap, we're actually headed into a serious recession. Oil drops out. Equities dropped out. And then it just got like freaky ugly at that point. And that's when the credit market seized up, all that other stuff happens. So I think it's going to happen

Starting point is 00:23:36 kind of the same this time, too, I'm following the same sort of playbook. And that's what makes me think, you know, we had that June 15th or mid-June low in risk assets. They started to rally, oil's been falling. I think they could rally all the way up through maybe November or maybe December, who knows. And then we get to that, oh, crap moment because we're headed into a serious recession and then the floor drops out of everything. That's the playbook I'm following right now. And so far so good. I don't know if you guys have any thoughts on that. No, I think that that's spot on. The one thing I'll add, and I think it speaks to two points we've talked about so far.

Starting point is 00:24:08 And I want to talk about with Jay, get his thoughts on these in particular. So I sent over press, I don't know if you see these two charts back to back. Maybe we can quickly show them. One of them, they both start with the title Infographic. And this comes from JP Morgan Chase data that's publicly available. First one, I think, is it's the household. It starts out something infographic. It says household pulse.

Starting point is 00:24:34 Yeah, got it. Hold on here. You got it? Yeah. Let's pull up either one of them. It doesn't matter which one we can go through each one. Okay. So this is really kind of a mind-vending chart when you dig into it.

Starting point is 00:24:45 So what you're seeing here is you're seeing the percent change relative to 2019 pre-pendemic in median weekly checking account balances by Ingram quartile. So what this is effectively doing, each one of these lines, you're showing the different quartiles of income and you're trying to see how much is this different from 2019 pre-pendemic, right? When we had all the stimulus money flow into people's accounts. And the interesting thing about it for me is that across all income, this is, you know, checking account data in real time from JP Morgan across all income quartiles, you see elevated weekly checking account balances. You're doing it on a weekly basis and a rolling basis to see how much money do people actually have in

Starting point is 00:25:28 their account to meet these higher CPI pressures. And you see consistently, they remain elevated. That message shows you that this is going to push CPI up for a longer time period and it's going to potentially be sort of a delay, right, and to drain some of this liquidity, drain down these balances to where they have to come back to the 2019 level before you have that hard down that we're, I think many at least are expecting in the equity market, in the real economy. in consumption generally. So this is a fascinating one. And then the second one, if you could pull that up quickly,

Starting point is 00:26:04 this one is the actual median weekly checking count balances by age group. Same story here, you know, given the stimulus checks, the child tax credit, a ton of cash is just sitting on people's checking account balances, still has not found its way into the economy. Every age group, every demographic, 18 to 34, the seniors, They're still sitting on that cash. They have not plowed at all into the stock market. It is not eroded.

Starting point is 00:26:33 This data, I think, is the end of Q1 data, but they've posted similar charts, even in his latest Q2 at the end of June, still elevated. Do we think because of their working capital accounts, that that's the reason for this? And Jay, what was your question? I was just going to say, Joe, in the last meeting,

Starting point is 00:26:48 I thought you had some data or some survey or something that said that people were plowing the money into the markets. Oh, yeah. No, I mean, portions of the money found its way. into the market, right? I don't think there's any, any, I'm saying, but by in large, it's, it's been sitting in the back. You can see the numbers are going. Well, just look at the balances, right? Look at, look at, now, where does that come from? Okay, some of it's stimulus, some of us, the child tax credits that came through all last year. But, you know, if you're, if you're going

Starting point is 00:27:14 through your daily life and you're just a regular middle income guy and you are comparing what's in your checking count right now to what it was in 2019, it's elevated. Now you may not feel that because of inflation, but I don't know, what's your thought? I was just going to say, I think the Fed is probably keenly aware of this. And I think that for them to create the demand destruction, they're going to keep raising those rates so that they can get unemployment up. I think that's, they're headed towards trying to increase the unemployment, right? So make people afraid at the bottom end of employment that they may lose their jobs

Starting point is 00:27:43 and actually have people lose their jobs. And that will hopefully curb inflation like, because that's their game plan, right? So they're going to keep getting aggressive. So if Jeff's right, and I happen to be sent. sympathetic, the same thing. If equity prices then go up higher, right? And are they going to be successful? They won't go higher when they start laying people off. Correct. Correct. But we're talking, they're going to keep pushing on the gas pedal, the Fed, until that happens, right? They're going to keep raising those rates aggressively. I'm going to get more aggressive. So you asked earlier, what they're

Starting point is 00:28:16 going to do? I think it's, you know, 75 bips this time coming up, possibly 100. I mean, think about how rough it's going to be for Jerome Powell's life. If you get the S&P back to 45, 4,600. You know, just to get aggressive. He's got to be aggressive if he's trying to accomplish his goal. I personally don't think that that's going to change it because I think you have supply chain issues and I really don't think, I really don't think this plan is going to work, but we'll say, but they're going to keep at it.

Starting point is 00:28:40 I mean, he literally said they're going to keep, they're going to keep at it. I forget the exact words he used, but he said something along those lines. What's your take on this, Preston? What do you think about this, this, uh, JP Morgan data? I think, uh, Jay's point is valid. that maybe people are preparing a little bit for the storm coming. But then also, I'm just thinking about if everybody's costs are going up, if you're a business and all your costs are going up, you got whatever your variable costs are or more dynamic, you have to have a larger

Starting point is 00:29:10 working capital cash account for that business in order to facilitate that variance that you're now seeing. And so that's the only thing I can kind of hang my hat on when I'm looking at it. Here's what he said at the press conference. I actually took some notes on this. He commented voice concerns with high and rising inflation. All was all about inflation in the press conference, as you may recall, determined to bring it down and they will tolerate a recession if that's what's needed to get the job done. Very hawkish, right?

Starting point is 00:29:40 And then he also said another unusually large increase could be appropriate. I think they're going to get aggressive. And I think that they're pushing towards it all comes down to the CPI print. If it comes in like the UK's and it's at 10%. I don't think it does come down to the CPI print. I mean, unless it drops dramatically. No, I think it's about employment. I really think it's about employment.

Starting point is 00:30:02 I mean, CPI's part. It's tied to it, right? Yeah, it's both. Yeah, so but if it comes down slightly, I don't think that matters. If it drops dramatically, I don't see that happening. To Jay's point, right, he has specifically mentioned how he's, he's fearful of a wage price spiral. He's talked about imbalance in the labor market.

Starting point is 00:30:18 He says it's not a healthy thing to have two job openings for every employer. and that'll give so much, I mean, it's kind of amazing, right? From a political standpoint, it gives so much bargaining power to workers to say, no, screw you, I want more money, right? And that's how you get really sustained high inflation. Yeah, he wants to see weakening in the job market. That's the goal, I think, at this point. And when there's too many open roles, wages rise quickly,

Starting point is 00:30:40 which can make the economy, you know, the inflation could get way worse than, I think. So I think that's what his goal is at this point. That's what he's focused on. Boy, oh boy. the only thing we need now is for uh jeff doctor doctor jeff to talk about covid what's your opinions on covd jeff or monkey box tell us about monkey box it's now a national emergency it's a national emergency so be careful out there everybody that's just more you know verbiage stock talking we're getting a shadow man it was a joke no for real no no no no no it's really it's actually

Starting point is 00:31:19 not a joke guys because there are so many we're talking about charts and all this data but the reality is this is a narrative game right that's what i think it's that's what i think it's happening and there and you're setting up towards there's so many potential risks that can take all these charts and throw it out the window right you have lockdowns in china we have problems with inflation again and supply chain issues that's what i'm looking at this current run that we've seen like this aggressive bid that we've had i'm just worried like any little bit of bad news is going to just immediately plug correct the recession into people's heads and they're like, there's no way this thing's going higher.

Starting point is 00:31:54 What in the world are we thinking? And then that's all like a raid of Marilago? Is that going to drive the lights? Yeah, yeah, yeah, there you go. It's all about uncertainty. We're living in times of uncertainty right now, which means you don't know which way it's going to go, right? So that's where the market's at.

Starting point is 00:32:09 And there's so many different contributing factors that could just change in a heartbeat, right? Look at Friday. Thursday was there a 34% chance of a 75 bit was the survey, right? in the market and now it's a 66% in one day, right? Yeah. So that's where we're living. How do you guys want to leave this? Do you guys want to

Starting point is 00:32:28 make your call for the next quarter? You just want to leave it at this and then we don't have to worry about whether you were right or wrong. I'll just call. I'll just throw out what I'm doing and for my client accounts and stuff is I'm getting

Starting point is 00:32:44 increasingly long because I think this rally has legs. I think it's going to probably hold now. Everybody keep in mind, we're recording this before we know the CPI numbers for July. So things can change quickly. But as of today, I'm getting increasingly long, but I have tight trailing stops because at some point, the bottom is going to drop out. That could be in a week or that could be in a month or it could be like three or four months from now. We just don't know.

Starting point is 00:33:14 And so I'd just say be very careful because there's still extensive risk to the downside for, you know, most assets, risk assets especially. So, you know, I think what we're going to see, I love the chart earlier. We were talking about the leverage in the system. There's very low leverage in the system right now, which is fantastic. If you see those numbers starting to rise again and people starting to get giddy and like, hey, we got through this, you know, the Fed did it. Yay, Powell, Jeff, Dr. Bear was wrong. We're going on to bigger and better things. That's when you should get scared. That's when we're probably getting set up for the floor to drop out. So just be careful out there, you know, use trailing stops or just, or just a, you know, dollar cost average

Starting point is 00:33:55 through it. For Bitcoin, by the way, I just, I'll throw on my Bitcoin thoughts and then I'll stop talking. It's possible that 176 was the low for Bitcoin. And it's possible that we get just sort of a slow grind higher from here. I think it's undervalued right now. I think it's very cheap. I think that the whole Terra Luna debacle and, you know, Celsius and Voyager, all that garbage really pulled it down. That was a hard capitulatory type event for Bitcoin. And so I think most of the badness got wrung out of it at that point. If we do go into a deep recession, again, I think that's probably coming next year, maybe early 2023. It could tank again and it probably will tank again. So just be careful for that as well. But we could have a pretty nice rally into

Starting point is 00:34:35 the end of this year. I've been saying since the beginning of the year, my price target at the end of 2022 was 50,000 and one penny. And I'm still standing with that. I think it could happen. Joe? So full disclosure, I am massively long through options here, the long bond into 2024. I expect to get to zero or negative rates on the 10 year at some point next year. I'm not going to try and time it. I've been accumulating for last month or so, just a huge position. And it's moved in my favor, which I'm very happy about.

Starting point is 00:35:11 And I expect long end yields to decline from here and tenure to find a bid. I think bonds will be the trade of second half. Rather than play the vanity trade of the equity market, I'm just going to do my thing because I think Jeff could absolutely right. In fact, it's probably my, if you had to ask me, gone to my head, my base case expectation, I think equities go higher from here. I think at a minimum, we're visiting the 44, 4,500 on the S&P. I think NASDAQ that goes higher. I think Bitcoin goes higher. But again, it's in some ways a sucker's rally, right, because everything is deteriorating. And if you're going to try and time that good luck, I don't want to mess with that.

Starting point is 00:35:47 I'd rather do what I'm comfortable with, which is I think that the flight to safety trade will be alive next year as the real economy deteriorates. So just in terms of disclosure, that's where I'm at in terms of positioning. Obviously, I don't trade Bitcoin. I never trade Bitcoin. I think it's stupid to do that. I accumulate when it's cheap. I will buy, I bought dips below 20K this time.

Starting point is 00:36:06 I'm going to continue to buy probably up and down again. I'll buy higher levels from now and I'll buy lower levels from now. Hopefully we get cheaper prices. But I think I suspect it just probably going to be right, at least for the near term. I think Bitcoin is going to at least go higher for a little bit here. In terms of what I'm looking at in the Bitcoin broader market, I'm very eagerly waiting these reports we're going to get from the executive order. Keep in mind, we had that executive order that came down,

Starting point is 00:36:32 that commissioned various studies and reports to come and be fed to the president to foster legislation in Congress. Those are going to come in the early part of September. So that's going to be a lot of headlines, a lot of news and reaction about, you know, here's what the president's commission found. Here's what Treasury found. Here's what various different Department of Energy found. It could be bad.

Starting point is 00:36:52 It could be fun. Just be aware it's coming in the first part of September there. And also, you know, you can expect, I think, some election sort of dynamics coming into play. I think the student loan thing is going to happen, right? And also, one thing I think I texted you about this president. I think it's going to be fascinating to see if we get a boon to equities from this. You had that the quote unquote inflation reduction act that got passed, which they had that excise tax on capital gains, right? But it doesn't come into effect until January 1st, 2023.

Starting point is 00:37:24 So are there companies out there that are thinking, hey, maybe if we frontload some of our buybacks and do it this quarter and into Q4 because we don't want to pay the excess tax on buybacks that starts January 1st, 2023, we want to do it now, front load it. I think that could be another boon to equity, so it could, you know, again, contribute to the risk-on rally. So I don't want to be bearish here. I want to be bullish bonds, but I think it could roll over, right? Nobody knows. So I threw up the 30-year here, Joe. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:37:56 And you can see we got down, we're basically at 1% there for a little bit in 2020. So you're thinking in the coming year to year and a half, we're going to. going to go lower than 1% on the 30 year? Absolutely. All right. All right. There you go. You heard it here first, folks.

Starting point is 00:38:17 All right. And just so people know, that line on the top of this chart is the 40-year trend line that it had never punched through. You can see it tipped through there a little bit. These are weekly bars that we're looking at. It punched through it there a little bit on this last bidding, this last sell-off. And now it's starting the bid. So we'll see if Joe's trade there continues to work out. And you see that, go back for one second real quick.

Starting point is 00:38:45 Yeah. I'm sorry. Yeah. You just got to look at this structurally. Okay, look what happened. Okay. I want to talk about QE, right? QE buying massive amounts of bonds, right?

Starting point is 00:38:54 Look at the WIC. Okay. What does that WIC tell you right there? That WIC is total, total dysfunction and lack of liquidity in the Treasury market. And what happens when they're buying tons of bonds, right? when they're buying tons of bonds and they stabilize it and yields go higher. Explain to me, you're an astute bond market observer. Explain to me how QE right there in terms of quote-unquote buying bonds is driving the yields higher there.

Starting point is 00:39:22 Well, I don't see the QE actions as happening in sequence, right? Like it's out of phase. The implications are out of phase from what you're seeing in yields. What do you mean by that? So like when you have an out of phase action, if I'm pushing a swing, right, and I'm pushing, then the swing is is in phase with my with my pushes. But in some types of frequencies when you're pushing or you're trying to move it with a vector to the left, it actually is moving the exact opposite. But that doesn't mean that they're not correlated. Well, yields bottom right when QE begins.

Starting point is 00:39:59 Yeah. That's what we know from this chart. I mean, that's that wick. Yeah. The yields bottom right when the QE when QE begins. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, you got to realize there are actions over a long period of time, right? Their actions stepping in and clawing these these instruments out of the market on a net basis on a long time horizon. Like, I don't care what anybody says. If you're removing securities out of the market, you're playing with the pricing mechanism of what they are.

Starting point is 00:40:29 Right. Like if you go to a market and I'm pulling oranges out of the out of the inventory that's there, You know, it doesn't necessarily have an immediate impact, but if you keep doing that on a long enough net basis, like, it's going to impact the price, right? The reason they're making that action, to assume that it has no implication, and this is the question I posed to Jeff Snyder is, well, then why are they doing anything? If it does nothing, then why do they keep doing it over again? Yeah, the answer is to change the market psychology, to make them think. that everything's backstopping with liquidity. Give me a break. Give me a break.

Starting point is 00:41:11 I'm with Lynn. So like when you look at, when you look at the M2, that's what's being realized in the market. But as they continue to adjust, because what they're playing with is the duration, right? As you're constantly stepping into the market and doing these activities, what you're doing is you're messing with the duration because they're swapping something out that's yielding 5% for 30 years. And you're swapping it out for something that yields 4% at 30 years. And as you keep doing that, you're driving the duration down to nothing at nothing percent. Right.

Starting point is 00:41:45 So to suggest that it's psychology, I just don't, I don't buy that for a second. It's mathematics. And it's mathematics over a long period of time. That's not an in phase where you see the implications while it's being input. It's an out of phase implications of the input. But you know what? I value the difference in opinion. I just think that as you do this over a long enough period of time, you're truly messing with the duration. You're messing with the discount rates. You're messing with the cost of capital. And there's a reason that we all think UBI is going to happen.

Starting point is 00:42:21 It's because you've completely jacked the pricing mechanism of reality, the price of everything. That's why UBI has to happen. Next. Yeah. That's why that's why that's why. To be continued. That's why yield curve control has to happen. Right. So. Jay.

Starting point is 00:42:41 Well, with that said, you've just said it all. You know, I think, like I said earlier, it comes down to the Fed's going to be looking at inflation and employment data, mostly employment data, but they're tied together, obviously. So I think that's what you've got to keep looking at. You know, inflation is rising. It continues to rise every month. I would just look at that oil prices like we did, you know, look at the, you know, look at the, Look at the earnings calls. Look at what these companies are saying.

Starting point is 00:43:05 What could happen today with NVIDIA? Like, just keep listening to what's happening in the market as it relates to their guidance. And that'll kind of give you some guidance as to where you think things are going. Facebook has reported their first revenue decline as a public company recently, ever. They are the absolute worst. I'm sorry. You know, I don't like to usually. I cannot stand that company.

Starting point is 00:43:24 You're going to see more. You're going to see more of this stuff, right? And so as you see that, as you see that, you know, the markets are just, deteriorating, right? So I don't see anything positive here. I hear you, there's potentially a bull run that's happening right now. We have to get past 4,200 and 4,500 and we'll see what happens. Is it a bull run or is it a, is it a bounce? Well, it's really, it's a bull trap is really, or just a bear trap rather, right? You guys all agree with that. Isn't that what it is? Yeah. I don't necessarily. Yeah. Sorry, Jeff. So what's, so what's, so it seems like there's

Starting point is 00:43:59 more things to the downside, I don't see what can surprise us to the upside. I'm missing that. I don't know what that is. That makes us going through a bull market and we just take off from here for the next five times. What about CPI declining rapidly? Why would that happen? Oh, so you think CPI is going to remain persistently high through next year? Oh, the next year. Well, if that's true, we're not going into a recession, right? You're putting words on mouth. I didn't say all of next year. You're talking about to the end of this year for the next few months, right? Yeah. So just markets, markets don't go straight up or down, So I don't think we're going to see from this point.

Starting point is 00:44:31 Like first of all, I'm not so sure that June, was it 14th or so, was the bottom. Could be. Yeah. I'm not so sure about that. Right. And so we have this run happening right now. And the data points that I was just commenting on, which is inflation and obviously employment, the employment data that we see from, you know, ADP numbers that come out as well as the, you know, the, um, the economic data that we get released.

Starting point is 00:44:54 That's what's driving everything, I think. And that's what's going to drive. And obviously, that's driving. the Fed, the Fed's going to drive the interest rates, the interest rates go up and the Fed fund rates, then companies are going to start getting cautious about their cost of capital and they're going to start laying people off. And that's what the Fed's pushing for, I think. And so that hasn't happened yet. And when that starts to happen, that's when the markets will roll. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up

Starting point is 00:45:19 and customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why VANTA is a game changer. VANTA automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI-powered platform. So whether you're prepping for a SOC 2 or running an enterprise GRC program, VANTA keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving. Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, VANTA gives you continuous automation across more than 35 security and privacy frameworks. Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vantta.

Starting point is 00:45:55 That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth. If I were running a startup or scaling a team today, this is exactly the type of platform I'd want in place. Get started at vanta.com slash billionaires. That's vanta.com slash billionaires. Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading, but haven't dared try? The futures market is more active now than ever before, and plus 500 futures is the perfect place to start. Plus 500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin,

Starting point is 00:46:32 gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, 4X, crypto, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade from anywhere, right from your phone. Deposit with a minimum of $100 and experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for. See a trading opportunity, you'll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open. Not sure if you're ready, not a problem. Plus 500 gives you an unlimited, risk-free demo account with charts and analytic tools for you to practice on. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit Plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify.

Starting point is 00:47:20 Plus 500, it's trading with a plus. Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high-yield savings accounts. Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit. Now, the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise income fund, which has more than $600 million invested in a 7.97% distribution rate, With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion-dollar asset class in the last few years. Visit fundrise.com slash WSB to invest in the Fundrise income fund in just minutes.

Starting point is 00:48:05 The fund's total return in 2025 was 8%, and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, current distribution rate as of 1231, 2025. carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right.

Starting point is 00:48:34 Back to the show. I'll throw it again my two stats here is that I think the markets have officially, they officially don't really care about inflation as much anymore. I think the inflation part of the descent of equities and risk assets has already taken place. And I think the rally continues until people finally get concerned about the recession being seriously. That's how I'm viewing that. I think it's a psychology game right now. Why would you get concerned about the recession? Because they're going to see that things are actually really seriously bad and we're going to be in a worldwide recession.

Starting point is 00:49:09 And it's going to be inarguable by winter or late fall. People are going to start to look ahead and be like, oh crap, like it's going, it's really ugly out there. I'm asking you what the cause of that recession will be. Slowing, so negative GDP and to your point. And what is that? That's what I'm asking. Like, getting to the root of it. What is causing the GDP to contract?

Starting point is 00:49:30 So unemployment is very low. So people are going to start getting fired. Companies are going to quit hiring. People are going to be out on their can. Rising rates. Federal Reserve. Rising rates. Lay people off.

Starting point is 00:49:39 Then they have to pivot because there's too many people get lit off too fast. And that's when it reverses the other way. We're not. Right. I'm just trying to put a time frame on everything. So that's kind of how I see this all playing out is a few more months of a rally because people think we're kind of over it. The inflation was a big deal, not that big of a deal anymore. We're getting through this.

Starting point is 00:49:55 Could just be a mid cycle, you know, a little dip. We're pulling out of it. And then people are like, again, sorry for the foul language. Oh, crap. We're actually heading into a more serious recession. I think I did good on this episode without. You guys. You guys.

Starting point is 00:50:08 No, no, no. Really good. No, but, but I think for this year, I don't, I don't know that we're, I don't know how far we go up, but we can continue. to rise to your point, but there's so many negative, like, narrative things that I was talking about that could make it just pull back down again and test that, test that bottom or get closer. So I'm not so sure that we're like ripping up all the way to the top here and didn't test the whole time eyes or anything like that. So yeah, I don't know. I'm still worried. I'm pretty worried about what you're negative. You're negative on all time. Everybody want to use negative

Starting point is 00:50:37 on all time highs this year? And spy, for example, on the SP 500. I don't, I don't think that's happening. I think there's too many. Listen, could it happen, Joe? Absolutely, but there's too many economic data points that people are looking at and other factors that are like every week. I will say this, the market is pushing up any chance it can. Any chance it can go up, it goes up. But any chance they can go down, which keeps happening every few weeks, it bang, it just drops again. And so that's the thing that we're faced with is that there's too many potential things that can push the market down. But it does want to push.

Starting point is 00:51:08 To your point, Joe, the market is very optimistic and it wants to rally. And it's trying to, but there's too many things that keep getting thrown at it. Yeah. I'm of the opinion that this is getting exhausted, this current balance that we're in. I don't think it has too much more to go. We're at that level now, 42-honor. Yeah, I think it could run for another couple weeks at most, and then it's going to maybe start rolling over as my base case.

Starting point is 00:51:34 But similar to Jay, like, hey, I'm not an absolutist on anything. Like, I'm all looking in probabilities, right? I'm saying, hey, could it go further, of course? But the bigger momentum trend for me is that you're seeing a bounce and it's fizzling. It's about to fizzle out. Joe, do you think we pat? My expectation in the fourth. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:51:59 So let me give you the probabilities in my mind. I think we break through 42. I think that the real water line for me is this 44, 4300 area. I tell you this, put it this way. If we get above 4,400, we're going. new all-time highs. So check this out. That's the line in the same. Let me say this to you. So today I'm watching the market the last few days, right? So today you see the market, it's pushing, right? The Nvidia thing comes out and the market dips. It's like it's one freaking

Starting point is 00:52:23 company that's clearly tied to Bitcoin mining. Like, come on, everybody knows that. And yet the market starts to pull back off of that. It's looking for a reason to pull back. It's also looking for a reason to go up. It's trying to sit in a channel right now. If it breaks like above 4200, all bets are off. It can really start the rally. And this is a resistance level that it's got to get through, I think. We're on the same page. I just, the chart, the difference in this, this current rally, because we had that bear trap in March, right, we didn't get to these charts, but I'll just briefly summarize them. Look at the VIX.

Starting point is 00:52:55 Look at the VIX. Look where the VIX is breaking a level. We, you know, we had this higher low, higher low, higher low through basically through October of last year. We've always put in these higher lows. Look at high yields. Look at credit spreads. They're telling you the risk on trade is here.

Starting point is 00:53:09 And even look at that we didn't get to the XLA or spy, but like this is what you see. You see the return to the leadership. You see technology is back outperforming and QQQQUs are outperforming spy. You know, this could be a bear trap, right? But once you start to break really good levels, the market's going to get completely bullish again. They're going to think the Fed's got everything in control. And you can't discount the potential with a passive flow for us to go to new all-time highs. And it could really mess people up.

Starting point is 00:53:36 It could be like the Bitcoin chart, guys, right? Like you get back up to 4,800, 4,900, and people think, okay, the coast is clear, and that's the second double top, and it rolls over. If it's not something that's an exogenous event, like China lockdown or something like that, they will send their Fed officials, other Fed officials out to make comments, right? Whether it's, you know, the one out of San Francisco or Cleveland or whatever, they're constantly, they also leak this stuff out to try to pull the market, I think, to pull the markets back, right? That's what I think they're trying to do.

Starting point is 00:54:03 So as it starts to rally, I think they're going to try to do whatever they can if it's not some other exogenous spent that they can't control. But most of the things are just going to be things I don't have to do. That's what I said earlier. Like, you know, it's going to be Jerome Powell's worst nightmare if he still has CPA, we're CPI really high. And at the same time, you've got this, you know, this issue of, you know, higher SBI. You've got higher asset prices. They, they're like, whoa, how high do we have to hike rates to tank the market? You know, that's what he's going to be thinking. Was it, uh, Messer? I was just right, have something here. She said, she told the Washington Post, like, how they do this, right? So she says that it would be inappropriate to cry victory too early, I guess to your point here, and risk letting high inflation

Starting point is 00:54:41 become entrenched. We need to see really compelling evidence that inflation is moving down. And in my view, they haven't seen that yet. So this is, listen, she's just putting that word out there to try to pull the market back a little bit like, oh, wait a second, you know, the Fed's not so happy about where things are at. So when the market starts the rally, they're just going to come out with their comments. Yep. Put pressure on. Joe, real fast. Good luck. I put up the VIX. You might be right. I put up the VIX and also the move. And, you know, it seems like the move is the bigger, the index for the credit markets for the volatility and the credit market. It seems like that's the bigger story than necessarily the equity volatility.

Starting point is 00:55:23 Absolutely. Which would make sense based off of this current setup with inflation and all the treasuries being at the yields they're at. I'm sorry to interrupt you. Go ahead. No, no, you got it. This move in the bond market was historic in the first half this year. Bonds absolutely got smoked. There's a four standard deviation move. There have been few times in history absent a credit crisis where you've had this kind of turmoil in the bond market. And the high elevated move,

Starting point is 00:55:50 the takeaway from that is that you're on the fastest rate hiking cycle in history. We've never moved this quickly. I mean, the fact that we're talking about 75 and 100 basis point hikes, I think is something that speaks to the volatility and uncertainty in the market. And that's why you'd expect an elevated move, right? Because it's responding to, you know, is Nick Timoros or the Wall Street Journal going to leak next week that we're hiking out of 50 basis points and surprise everybody. That's kind of how they're doing policy now. And I think it's, good luck bond traders in the short run because the volatility is through the roof. But on top of that, we then have a print of 528,000 jobs. You know, so that's a surprise.

Starting point is 00:56:30 Did you guess that that would happen? No. No, of course. Right. That's what I'm saying. It's like it's crazy what's happening right now. It's a weird economy, right? It's just weird. Every, every, you get so many cross currents and you can make the arguments. I mean, I think just if you pull back, right, just zoom out like we say. The, the clear trend is that the sugar high from the fiscal stimulus is wearing off every week, every month that goes by, credit conditions are tightening and the economy is decelerating. So you have to believe that eventually the fundamentals follow that. Now, how long that takes, the timing of that, you know, whether the market perceives indications or indicators on a daily

Starting point is 00:57:08 basis incorrectly, it gets really tough, right? Timings everything. But I think you can expect that this isn't going to get resolved by the end of the year. This is a 20-23 story. So when we were having those podcasts earlier in the year, I'm like, this can take time. Like, this is not something where the credit markets can implode this summer. It might be a 20-23 story. Emerging markets blowing up might be a 20-23 story. I think that's what you're seeing. Guys, let's wrap it up there. Go around the horn. Jeff, tell people where they can find you. Anything else you want to highlight. We'll have it all in the show notes, but go ahead. Sure. I'm most regularly on Twitter. My handle is at Velshire Cap. If you guys want to learn more about how I invest, I obviously do things pretty differently than most financial planners and investment advisors. You can look up my website, Velshire.com. Or if you're curious about my services, shoot me an email info at Velshire.com. Joe?

Starting point is 00:58:02 Yeah, Joe Carlosari. I'm at Joe Carlos Sari on Twitter. I'm a commercial litigate with the blog offices of Smith-Omminson. Hang out on Twitter. Easiest place to find me. Always shoot me at E.M. If you have a question. And thanks for the follows.

Starting point is 00:58:16 Jay. For the next four weeks, you can find me at Tyson Shoal in Seaside Heights on my boat, my jet skis and my kids. Thanks. No, you find me at at Jay Gould on Twitter. and most of my hand is on social media is the same angel investor. So if you're a startup in Bitcoin or otherwise, hit me up if you're a tech founder. I think people can tell during these discussions that we are truly trying to figure it out,

Starting point is 00:58:42 right? Like for ourselves. Like there's no, you know, we're not trying to push anyone narrative. We're just truly trying to find reality and what we think the, where the probabilities are going to be kind of moving forward. And what a blast doing this with you guys. every quarter. I just can't thank you enough for making time and to spend basically the whole evening here just kind of hashing it out. I always have a blast during this. So guys, thanks so

Starting point is 00:59:07 much for making time. Thanks for having us, Preston. Thanks, bro. Yeah, thanks, Preston. If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use. Just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I'd love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable. If you can leave a review, we would really appreciate that. And it's something that helps others find the interview in the search algorithm. So anything you can do to help out with a review, we would just greatly appreciate. And with that, thanks for listening. And I'll catch you again next week. Thank you for listening to TIP. To access our show notes,

Starting point is 00:59:49 courses, or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC091 (Part 2): Bitcoin Mastermind Group 3Q 2022 w / Jay Gould, Jeff Ross, and Joe Carlasare

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.