We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC167: How Decentralized is Bitcoin Mining w/ Harry Sudock (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey everyone, welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast. On this week's conversation, I have back Bitcoin mining expert Harry Suttock to talk about some of the more interesting topics currently being discussed. We get into an interesting conversation about high fees and how some entities are getting low fee transactions included into the blockchain, even though the market rate is much higher. Even though this might be happening, Harry shares his thoughts on whether this should be a concern or not for the overall decentralization and health of the network. Additionally, we talk about nuclear

Starting point is 00:00:33 power, what it might mean for the Bitcoin mining sector, and much more. So with that, here's my conversation with the thoughtful Harry Suttick. You're listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. Hey, everyone. Welcome to the show. I'm here with Harry Suttick. Back again. Again, excited to have this chat with you. I got to spend a little time with you last week. So excited to kind of touch basis on the podcast. Yeah, Preston, always great to be back.

Starting point is 00:01:18 Always great to see you at Bitcoin Park. We had historically aggressive snow weather last week right in time to host 200 people, you know, just how we drew it up. Speaking of... Speaking of which, there's snow on the ground at Bitcoin Park in Nashville. and I walk up, it's in the evening, and there's three people sitting in a hot tub out in the front yard of Bitcoin Park, and the hot tub is being heated by mining rigs. You guys are there sitting there making money while people are practically sitting there on the street in a hot tub. So this is crazy, right?

Starting point is 00:02:00 The state of our network is strong. We've had an incredible bitwinner named Schnitzel who, brought his basic hot tub to Nashville, and he ran it all week. I know a bunch of guys got in. I mean, it's pretty insane when you think about the application. Now, this is where I want to start the conversation. From your experience as a professional minor in somebody who's dealt with this infrastructure and this hardware for as long as you have, just because it's possible doesn't mean that it's likely at scale or volume. So, I'm curious to hear your point of view on this particular type thing evolving from here.

Starting point is 00:02:42 Like, are we five years out, 10 years out from this being something that's seen more commonly? Walk us through what you think about this. I think it continues down this kind of trend of barbellification across mining, where you either need to be a really scaled operator to achieve industrial economics or you need to have a differentiated use case for the heat or for the natural output that a mining machine generates. And so I think there's a ton of folks who are going to put 5-6-8-6 in their house and replace their hot water heater. They're going to replace the way that they heat their homes. It's going to replace, you know, propane or nat gas in some instances for household heating.

Starting point is 00:03:31 So I think those types of micro-use cases are probably in the earliest of days. The guys at FutureBit are doing it with their space heater. Denver Bitcoin just heats his all house. He did his own duct work for it. And then there's folks who are refitting their boiler, basically, to run off of the output from A6. So I think we're just at the beginning of sort of the tinkering phase for this long tail of home usage. and you only need to get to a few hundred thousand households to represent a really serious

Starting point is 00:04:03 portion of the network. So I think the road towards additional household level decentralization is really interesting, but I also think that we're not going to see any slowing in the growth of the megasite as well. You know, when I'm thinking of how does this actually work itself into everyday use, it almost seems like you have all these apartment buildings that are constantly going on. all over the country. Is somebody who's building these things, does it start to become part of just the common build or the common infrastructure of an apartment building where you have, say, 40 people renting off of you? You're providing the hot water or the heat into the building

Starting point is 00:04:45 because there's some type of mining setup because it's advantageous for the person who's running out this property because then you're able to do it at scale. Do you see that kind of emerging first? or do you see these onesies and twosies of people doing this at their house? Because the issue is more on the service side, right? Like, you need to have a little bit of technical, you needed a lot of technical competence to service it to just handle the complexity of it all. So is that how this gets going or walk us through kind of your thoughts on this? Yeah, I think there's a number of different historical analogies that makes sense, right?

Starting point is 00:05:24 the internet was really a household toy early on, right? If you go to the, you know, whether it was the phone freaking era or the build your own computer era, these are hobbyists who are going to tinker sort of at the home level, and they're going to be the ones that drive, you know, round one of innovation, right? This is how Apple got started. This is how a lot of the personal computing revolution got started in the 70s and 80s. So I think we're going to see that. Growing up, my dad's no technologist, but he sure knew how to make the router and the dial-up work.

Starting point is 00:06:01 And so I think that, you know, mining represents kind of a similar level of competence to that. And then, you know, once you graduate, you know, do you service your own HVAC at this point? No. So I think there's a layer of service providers that'll spin up around this idea as well. And it's going to be the same way that you hire an electrician or a plumber or an HVAC, you know, service. you're going to start to see folks who say, okay, well, you know, I'm an HVAC service with ASIC integration, and I'm adding that to, you know, to my own competitive differentiation. But, you know, this is, this is what's so beautiful about mining is that it's a infrastructure enabled and Bitcoin-enabled

Starting point is 00:06:37 revenue stream or cost-saving stream, you know, so if you say, all right, I'm going to go spend 25 cents a kilowatt hour to heat my house, well, if I strap a miner on that, maybe I'm dropping that to 10 or 15 cents net of the Bitcoin reward. Anytime there's an opportunity to execute against those types of cost savings, I think industry springs up around it. So we're going to see growth on the home use case at the tinkerer level. I think we'll see some of call it, let's call it microindustrial, which I would put it like anything less than 100A6 is kind of microindustrial.

Starting point is 00:07:15 And I think, you know, that's plenty to heat. houses or maybe a multifamily. That's all kind of well within scope. And then you look at some of these firms that do contract industrial scale servicing. Why wouldn't they just strap a truck fleet onto their business? And when they're underbooked at sort of the industrial scale, go sending the guys out. I was involved in a business, which was an airline maintenance business years and years ago, and they did exactly that. They had two hangers where they would do the full-blown inspection. That was a big ticket item.

Starting point is 00:07:51 You know, you take the plane out of service for four, eight weeks. But then there was a huge, it was called AOG, Air on Ground, servicing business. And that was a fleet of 15 trucks with mechanics in them, and they would be dispatchable across a region. So I don't see why you wouldn't have a similar kind of maintenance business model spin up around this idea. But, you know, like with everything,

Starting point is 00:08:11 mining, you know, there's two key drivers, which is the CAPEX and the OPEX. The CAPX is the A6 and the infrastructure. The OPEX is the electricity and the servicing. And so I think, you know, folks are going to need to kind of wrap their head around, well, maybe it's a $40,000 heat installation rather than a $10,000 or $20,000 heat installation. But you amortize that. You get some depreciation benefits based on something like that. And so, you know, people have to wrap their head around a little bit of a different cost structure than what they're used to. But the benefits and the sovereign revenue is a huge, huge net benefit once you get your head wrapped around it. Well, when we look at how many people are just highly indebted and don't have the capital

Starting point is 00:08:53 for something that's four times the cost of an HVAC, they already struggle with the cost of an HVAC putting it in and now something is four times more expensive than that, it almost seems like it's going to force this into being a model where you're relying on some type of service provider to provide that service just because of that upfront cost that's going to be there for a majority of market participants. Similar to when Solar City or whatever was rolling out, hey, it's basically the same cost. And the cost to put this in is you get it back after 20, 30 years or whatever it was. But I think in this scenario, the return on the upfront cost is way faster compared to solar. It almost seems like that's what's going to have to kind of be the model

Starting point is 00:09:44 moving forward because most households aren't going to have the upfront cost. Is that a correct assumption or the way to look at it? I think that's reasonable. And I think, you know, the important piece, at least the lesson that I learned were the operating model you deploy for one unit, 10 units, 100 units, 1,000 units, 10,000 units, those are almost independent businesses, right? You've got to rebuild your whole operating system. You know, if you think of like a, like an SOP document, like imagine that you and I are going to write a standard operating procedure for each of those sets of scale, you know, you'd almost have a completely different document for each one of them. You know, how do you manage network? How do you manage power? How do you manage, you know,

Starting point is 00:10:28 heat and sound and all the different components that go into a mining installation, each of those levels of scale. So every time you add a zero, it's almost an entirely different operating model. So I think, what do you do with one unit? What do you do with 10 units? That's pretty similar. But what do you do with 100 units and what do you do with 1,000 units? Totally different. I would not anticipate an owner-operator taking on 1,000 units. I think they can totally take on one unit, I think they can totally take on 10 units. If you access to YouTube, you can figure out 10 units. A hundred units, that's a lot of work. And at 1,000 units, you're hiring and staffing that out. I think this is going to take longer than many of us suspect or that some might

Starting point is 00:11:17 suspect. Because at the core piece of this, you still have an education burden that's associated with the underlying coins that are being mined, because the majority of your populace is just looking at this and be like, these people are crazy, these magic internet money that they're mining with this heating unit. And they're just not there. Like, they look at all of it still to be very super speculative and they're not going to want to change out an HVAC on this premise that there's money that can be made out of something that's mining it.

Starting point is 00:11:50 I think you just, we might have to go through a whole other cycle before. or people even begin to kind of go down that path of this is very real. This thing's staying around for a very long time. I'm assuming you agree with that, Harry? Yeah. And again, I think that ties directly into this CAPEX idea that another cycle from now, being able to put 10 or 100 units online, you can go a generation older. You can get them for a lot more kind of cost effective pricing per unit.

Starting point is 00:12:20 The value is that you're monetizing the energy. you don't need best in class efficiency in order to achieve that. So I think the ability to go down market or into the used market on those units unlocks a whole other layer of this business model just because you're not out of pocket so significantly. You know, we saw this with the S-9s in 2020. You know, they basically traded for scrap value. They traded for a dollar or two, a tarahash.

Starting point is 00:12:48 So I think, you know, if you're able, if you want to do this in your multifamily, do it at the absolute depth of the bear on a previous generation machine where, you know, the process heat and the little bit of Bitcoin, you know, make sense. Don't overspend on a top of the line unit and kind of get your hands dirty with the first version. And then if you're like, you know, this is incredible and I've got a really, really good power cost, you know, then you might say, all right, the cap ups is justifiable. But I think in terms of just getting from sort of zero to one, going mid-market, going older gen, and then, you know, maybe, you know, making the acquisition of the units in sort of the most distressed time period.

Starting point is 00:13:28 That's a reasonable recipe for how to make something like this work. Yeah. Hey, you've been with Grid for quite a while now, and they went public. They have a public listing? We sure did. It'll be five years next month. Wow. If you can believe it.

Starting point is 00:13:44 Wow. Yeah, we listed on CBOE Canada. Our ticker is GRDI, but we're just thrilled to be in kind of the next phase of growth. There's a lot of growth that we have planned and all of that stuff gets, you know, facilitated by a role in the public markets. When I think about mining, I think one of the biggest competitive moats you can have is just your relationship with your government at the local level combined with, well, really kind of three main things, that combined with just really cheap energy cost, right? And then the third thing I would say is just operational excellence. Is there something else that you would quantify in there? being, setting a mining company apart from others other than those three? I think it's sort of two sides of the same coin, but it's access to capital and capital

Starting point is 00:14:33 efficiency. If you bought $100 S-19s at the top of last cycle, those are really hard to ROI. You bought so far ahead of what they're able to produce, that it's tricky. So I would say, you know, the same way that if you're a hedge fund, you, and you leg into, you know, Bitcoin or ETF, Bitcoin, you know, you're assigned a cost basis. I think of miners assigning themselves a cost basis for their ASICs and generating a internal rate of return against that cost basis is a key idea. You know, so I always think like the legs of the stool in a mining business, and you can screw up one, you really can't screw up two, are exactly what you said, which is, you know, power cost, operating experience, capital efficiency, and then, you know, sort of jurisdictional

Starting point is 00:15:21 risk or jurisdictional quality. You know, those are all things that matter a lot. You know, the things we've been incredibly thoughtful over the last five years around. But the opportunity in mining, I think, is just kind of scratching the surface of the mainstream, even though other than exchanges, I think the mining business is sort of the other place in Bitcoin land that's demonstrated an opportunity to achieve actual scale. Similar to just mining raw commodities, one of the big. advantages you get by being a public listed company is access to liquidity on demand effectively.

Starting point is 00:15:59 And you can take advantage of the cycles in commodity. So when the underlying that you're, you know, your mining is ripping a great time to issue some more common stock, maybe squat on the funds that you raise until the market corrects. And then you can deploy that capital into more equipment, in this case would be mining rigs at a much cheaper price. But you have to be patient and you have to really deeply understand those cycles and not get sucked in with the exuberance in the speculative animal spirits that kind of happen through these things. I'm assuming you agree with this, but in application, I guess is where my real question is, is that how, like, in your opinion, really great operators in this space look at this and are,

Starting point is 00:16:50 are they actually able to put it into practice? Yeah, I think the commodity production business gives companies an opportunity to be very pro-cyclical on their earnings and to be very counter-cyclical on their asset acquisition approach, which means that you're always kind of, you can be pro-growth on both a cyclical basis and a counter-cyclical basis, and that's exciting as an industry. I think for the most part, there's a little bit of divergence across business models, whether hosting provider, hosting client, vertically integrated, own the racks. You know, there's nuance across all of that.

Starting point is 00:17:30 I think the market hasn't quite figured out that miners aren't just a Bitcoin beta trade. They're maybe a hash price beta trade plus differentiated operating capabilities. So, you know, I think we're still kind of early days in, you know, equity analyst. less coverage and deeper understanding of minor A versus B versus C. But I think you're right. Like at the end of the day, it's a capital formation and capital deployment business. And so who's forming what type of capital? What does that mean on a cost of capital basis?

Starting point is 00:18:03 And then what are they deploying it into and what kind of future cash flows or future SaaS flows can those businesses reasonably expect? Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.

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Starting point is 00:22:23 I think that it's when I compare a private miner versus a public minor, the process to go through raising capital is just so much different than what a public minor can just issue more stuff. I mean, they can say, hey, we're going to issue 25% more shares outstanding than we currently have. The price is obviously ripping because it's correlated to the underlying. And then they can just kind of really squat on that cash and that buying, that potential energy that they're basically tapping into for when there's a correction. I would think on the private equity side, like going through that process to raise a similar amount would be just brutal. and you don't really have total control over that timing.

Starting point is 00:23:09 There's a lot, and there's a lot of hooks. I think any time you sign up for a deal in the private markets that has a real kind of duration lock on it, you know, that private equity is looking to liquidate the asset in three to five years and, you know, puts all this kind, you know, not that in the public markets, there isn't kind of quarterly earning pressure and other kinds of pressure. But at the end of the day, I think Pubco guys are looking to earn the trust and respect of long-term shareholders and, you know, judiciously issue stock and judiciously acquire assets in order to, in order to kind of build a compounding lever on these businesses

Starting point is 00:23:48 that outpaces, you know, Bitcoin price, outpaces difficulty and outpaces they have. Because there are forces that work against you sort of in a Bitcoin native way as well. So, you know, these are all things, you know, I spend an enormous amount of time thinking about. But when we made the decision that we wanted to be a public company, it was really to be able to put all of the different levers, you know, on the table and available to us across the board because the opportunity is so broad and so exciting. And the integrations with the energy systems that are out there is so new that we wanted to put every opportunity on the table for us. And I think, you know, we've seen a lot of folks take different kind of angles at it, you know, many with an enormous amount of success. And so I think it's a sector that is in its earliest days now. I joke is half-heartedly that we're kind of ending the Bitcoin mining level one

Starting point is 00:24:43 phase with this having. And I think Bitcoin level two is coming next. And that definitely applies to the miners because the stuff that was, you know, outside successful in the previous cycle, you know, we're going to need new tricks up our sleeve in order to continue to differentiate. What do you mean by that when you say we're going to need more tricks? Well, so I think there's been an operating model, which is put as much hash rate online as humanly possible.

Starting point is 00:25:15 No one's looking at across a number of the different guys around dilution and capital destruction. So there's really been sort of an interesting relationship between some capital destruction that's happened, but equity value growth. So if I issue a billion dollars in stock, does my stock? go up more than a billion dollars. In many cases, yes, not in every case. We saw the sort of basic finance loan book explode across all of the underwriters.

Starting point is 00:25:44 That all happened in the prior cycle. So I think there's deeper respect for the volatility across the mining space on the capital side. And I think that the entire mining space was kind of on easy mode, the previous having, even though there were incredibly difficult periods enormously. deep drawdowns. You know, hash price was not static whatsoever, but we got a lot of kind of fee relief heading into the end of 2023 and now into

Starting point is 00:26:12 2024. So, you know, I think with the having coming, the cost of power is going to come sharply into focus. And the multiple on invested capital is going to be something that all the miners are going to have a deeper focus on in the coming years than they did maybe in the previous years.

Starting point is 00:26:29 There's been a ton of talk with Ocean. coming on to the scene with their pool. And one of the things that I think is really important that they're talking about is this idea that if you're bringing one rig to the equation that you should be able to submit a block template. And as long as is your rig found the block, it should be able to put forth that template with a certain margin of safety factored in as like a base template. Like if the fees aren't at least 10%, then I don't know if this is how ocean's going to

Starting point is 00:27:02 necessarily, I think they've got like three different things. But I think if other pools start operating this way, which I think they should and they need to, I think it'd be better for Bitcoin from a decentralization standpoint if we got more pools to kind of do this. And this is why I'm really happy with Ocean has kind of brought to the attention of everybody in the line. The over-cings window is moving. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:27:23 Yes. For sure. Walk us through the perception deep inside of the mining industry as to how they think about this idea of individual miners or rigs being able to put forth a block template? It's a little bit technical. So right now, there's an enormous amount of decentralization across the production of hashes. And there's a pretty limited amount of decentralization across the pool. So right now, the way that the system basically works is that the pool runs software, typically it's Bitcoin core, that generates a block template. There's nothing to say that I couldn't

Starting point is 00:28:01 run a node and try to, you know, do my own block template, though it may not be compatible with the pool. But there's no reason why Bitcoin Core has to be the block template producer. And there's certainly additional optimizations that can be added to that piece of software as well. And so, you know, imagine there's a pool that's running a number of full nodes. That's where those templates are getting generated. Then the pool has a mempool associated with those nodes that covers the surface area or the real estate from which the transactions are drawn to map to that block template. You know, let's just say there's 100,000 transactions sitting in the mempool.

Starting point is 00:28:41 2,000 of those put together, make the best block with the most fees or 4,000 or I think right now we're able to get to about 4,200 transactions in a single block. And that process is how we arrive. Oh, I have a crazy dog. That process is how we arrive at the current mining system. Pool has Mempool pulls the 4200 out of the Mempool that are the highest revenue for the miners, and then sends those templates to the miners. Miners perform work against those templates.

Starting point is 00:29:14 Miner discovers a compliant block or a found block. You know, I'd say compliant relative to the template, not compliant. And then submits that block back to the pool. pool propagates the found block and then a new round of templates get generated. And what is great about the system, how it's functioned thus far, is it allows for there to be this huge amount of decentralization across hash producers, even if there is not a huge amount of decentralization across block template proposers with sort of this implicit idea that if my pool starts to behave poorly, the switching costs to go from pool A to pool B are, you know,

Starting point is 00:30:01 near zero. Even if I were to lose a whole day's worth of revenue or any minor were to lose a whole day's worth of revenue, that's sort of the maximum exposure that you could ever face relative to a pool. So that's, you know, less than a third of a percent of your annual revenue is only ever really at risk. So it's infinitesimally small amount. So it's important to know that and that the current kind of good actor sort of Damocles that's hanging over the industry is that the switching costs between pools are very, very, very low. Now, does that mean we're at an optimal state? No, but does it mean that we're at a reasonable local maximum? Yes. So I don't think that there's like significant systemic risk to Bitcoin in any way, shape, or form relative to

Starting point is 00:30:43 the centralization of mining pools today. Doesn't mean we don't have an obligation to try to work towards a more perfect union. What the Ocean Guys are doing and what the Straton B2 open source project is doing essentially takes the block suggesting function and jams that down to the same level as the hash production function. Now, there's a lot of like network engineering stuff that is above my pay grade around latency and are you degrading your competitive quality as a minor by going towards this sort of self-generating model.

Starting point is 00:31:21 Is that kind of the argument? Is that really kind of the argument? Like if a person, this stratum, B2 that you're talking about, what would be a person who's really opposed to this in mining? What would the argument sound like? It would sound basically like this. Minor A and Minor B are both participants in a pool that have pushed the block suggesting function to the minor.

Starting point is 00:31:43 Minor A has a great network design and is doing really well. Minor B isn't. And so let's say they're generating 10 x a hash per second combined five and five. Five of those x a hash have a 99.999% competitive parity with the rest of the network. But minor B has 85%. For instance, minor A and minor B get paid the same for their pool shares, even though the likelihood of that pool or a participant in that pool finding the block has degraded. there's nuance there where allowing a low-performing minor on a network basis to equally

Starting point is 00:32:21 participate on the pool. You know, that pool might find one one out of ten fewer blocks because of them. There's an economic case that there's a performance standard that they would need to introduce in parallel with this type of responsibility. I'm a believer that in any well-organized system, you basically need like counterweighting KPIs. So, you know, if I were a, let's say I'm a credit card.

Starting point is 00:32:44 company. God help me. I've got two KPIs. One of them is number of new cards issued or number of total credit issued because that's how you generate money. But number two would be I'd also want to minimize chargeback instances. You need these counterweighting KPIs. So maybe one is we're going to push the block suggestion layer down to all the miners. But we're also going to have this counterweight, which is that you also need to achieve some latency requirement. or you need to come up with some, you know, shares per new block counterweight. So there are ways to do it and there's certainly really, really smart engineers who are going to solve it on a technical basis that I'm not able to.

Starting point is 00:33:27 But at a conceptual level, you know, this all feels like it's within the realm of solvable. The bigger issue is that there's no economics associated with it right now. And so miners are, you know, the most relentlessly capitalist businesses in the world because we know exactly what each unit of our work should deliver on a revenue basis. And, you know, continuing to push complexity down to the individual operator level doesn't get you any more revenue. Yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 00:33:56 And so you're really asking miners to take an altruistic approach, which is good. We all believe in a long-term value of Bitcoin and it broadens maybe the area under the curve or the useful life or duration that Bitcoin can represent. So there's this software case that the miners really, if every minor staffed their engineering team with two, three, four kind of template engineers, let's say. That becomes a huge redundant cost across the entire industry, whereas right now those are basically offloaded into the service provider level at the pool. So the pool hires one team and maybe they have 100 clients.

Starting point is 00:34:36 Those are 100, 3, 4 person engineering teams that don't have to exist. So from a scaled perspective and a best G&A kind of corporate cost model basis, the way it's designed today is probably advantageous. Now, could you achieve a lot through open source? Could you achieve a lot through, you know, maybe an independent service that does this or a not-for-profit or foundation that does block, you know, template production? You know, maybe that's a happy medium. I've heard proposals, you know, bounce around around, you know,

Starting point is 00:35:08 basically doing a foundation that does all of the template push, and you basically disintermediate the pool role from the template role and the minor role. And there's actually a third leg to the stool that belongs out there or a few third legs of the stool. But I think to say, well, wouldn't it be great if miners just did this themselves? That doesn't really capture the scope of what's really being asked. That helps out a lot. That helps me understand that a lot. And those are some points that I never thought about from their perspective. Help us. So when I'm looking at Mempool space, mempool.

Starting point is 00:35:42 We love Menpool. They have an awesome new feature there where they're showing what the expected fee was going to be for the block. And you can see it real time there. And then after the block is found, you can see what was actually put in by the miner in the pool that, you know, found the block. And I'm finding anywhere from like 2 to maybe 8% of a delta. between what was expected from just a pure fee standpoint to what was actually produced. Explain to us exactly what's happening from a minor in a pool perspective as these numbers are pretty different.

Starting point is 00:36:19 There's a few categories of Delta that I think could be in play. One of them is just like straight up out of band transactions. Though your favorite ordinal respectors go to a pool and say, hey, please include all of these will pay on the side. It would be great if you'd include them kind of at one sat per V-byte, even though the MEP pool market is trading at 200 sats per V-bite. So I think a big piece of the Delta could come from situations like that. The other piece.

Starting point is 00:36:49 Help me understand. So they're wanting the lower rate or they've had it in the M-Pool and they're not able to update it. Walk us through. Like, why would a miner entertain this if it's not economically viable for them or that they're making more by bumping their transfer? transaction up into the pool? Well, so maybe they are paying more.

Starting point is 00:37:08 So maybe they propose one sap per V-Bit, maybe it's 100 transactions. They propose one sap per V-Bite on all those transactions. They give them a list of the transactions and they say, all right, this would have generated I'm using a random number one Bitcoin and fees. Oh, they pay on the side. Yeah. So what they don't want to do is they don't want to show how many they're trying to stuff in there, almost like an over-the-counter market where they don't want the rest of the market.

Starting point is 00:37:32 It's a Disney fast pass. Got it. Yeah. Nobody knows what you paid for your fast pass or your special park accelerator, but you paid them. And so you walked up on the line. Yeah. Got it.

Starting point is 00:37:46 It's that kind of thing. So MMPOO is working on a product, which is basically the sort of the open version of that, which is the MMPL accelerator, which I think is interesting. There's also just noise in that data where maybe a pool or two is using a different MMP pool than mempool's using. There is no one mempool. There's just your instance of the mempool. So there's a whole whisper network,

Starting point is 00:38:07 which is how all the transactions end up in a mempool. And then maybe the one I'm, you know, right now there's a, there's sort of a norm, but not a hard limit that a mempools 300 meg. Maybe I'm running a two gigabyte mempool for my pool because I need more visibility into more transactions

Starting point is 00:38:24 and I'm seeing other things. And maybe there's an RBF or a child pays for parent that's getting included differently. in my template production algorithm. There's lots of reasons why that data would also be noisy from Mempool to Mempool. So I'm hesitant to say, oh, it's all OTC, out-of-band stuff. I don't think that it is. But I think there's just some variability across Mempools that the pools are using,

Starting point is 00:38:48 mempools that the mining pools are using, which attributes back to some of that noise. But there's also definitely out-of-band stuff happening. Mempool themselves facilitate functionally and out-of-ban. And it's visible, but it's a... out of hand. F2 Poole has a transaction accelerator that they use. So this is going to become more of a Bitcoin norm. Again, thank goodness for Satoshi because the block time and the UTXO model is a huge friction coefficient on like an Ethereum style M-EV data play. So I think that, you know, the risk is that you get into some of that. Explain that in a lot more detail for

Starting point is 00:39:28 people? It's easier to talk about Ethereum because it is there. It isn't in Bitcoin. So there's an essay that came out several years ago called Ethereum as a Dark Forest. Then there's another really good thread by Alex B on Twitter, where he basically captured a lot of the evidence of M.EV on Ethereum, especially in a proof of stake environment relative to a proof of work environment. So there's a couple of factors that make Ethereum sort of a hotbed for this, right? The first is that there's this idea that you're in what's called state, which means if I put, let's say the block has 100 transactions and I do a transaction, I do transaction one. I can then do transactions two through 100 with the outputs, the outputs of transaction one.

Starting point is 00:40:19 So I can make multiple transactions occur within a single block based on the most, you know, the ordering of those. In Bitcoin, that doesn't work, right? Because you have this unspent transaction output, the UTXO, that you can only spend a new UTXO. So once the block confirms that your UTXO moved from A to B, then you can start to do something with B to C. You can't do these multiple hops. And so if you were perhaps doing MED minor extracted value on Ethereum, you would try to snipe value. Let's say there's a uniswap, smart contract that's the transaction you're doing on Ethereum

Starting point is 00:41:00 and you're moving a billion dollars from one side of a trade to another. You can do funny business within the same block in that environment. So the person who produces the block has a lot of potential value because there's a lot of economics that are moving inside of that block in real time, basically. And that's what allows for this. So there's much more opportunity for incentive to the block producer than there is just relative to what we do in Bitcoin, which is just like a straight up auction for block space. Got it.

Starting point is 00:41:35 Got it. Okay. So the havings coming up. This is always a very big deal. Everybody talks about it. Everyone's got an opinion. I think we have a pretty good idea of what happens after. after the happening.

Starting point is 00:41:47 I'll tell you exactly what's going to happen. Yeah, let's go from 6.25 Bitcoin minted per block to 3.125. That's right. That's exactly what's going to happen. The impacts. Everybody's got to take on whether this is as significant as it used to be. What's your opinion here moving forward? I'm super conflicted.

Starting point is 00:42:10 The first is that I love the having not as a miner, but as a bit coiner, because it is the It is the evidence in the world that Bitcoin's monetary policy is functioning as it was written. And so the certainty that we have around Bitcoin, the financial asset, is all a function of the certainty that we have that the monetary policy functions the way we expect. That's how we achieve a 21 million hard cap. It's, you know, imagine that we woke up on what is it, 840,000th block. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination, risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers now expect

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Starting point is 00:46:12 Exactly, right? If we were to go, if we were to go the other way and we didn't have, it means that Bitcoin doesn't work. The monetary policy didn't work. And so the 21 million in Hardcap didn't work and it would be incredibly disruptive to all of our expectations around how Bitcoin the software is supposed to function. You didn't even laugh at my joke, the Satashi joke. Well, that's what Jamie told me is going to happen. I'm sorry. I'm sorry to interrupt it.

Starting point is 00:46:42 Let's stay on task. Keep going. I interrupted you. Well, this is why, you know, I think havings are, I think everybody kind of delves into what you're saying, which is what are the impact of it. But I come at always from first principles, which is this is the edification of Bitcoin's monetary policy. And so it is critically important that they go off without a hitch. They have every time previously.

Starting point is 00:47:06 The other thing is, and this is just the elegant brilliance that is Satoshi Nakamoto, I don't know if you've ever seen this, but, and I can't attribute to the person who showed me on X.com because I forget to tweet. but the first epoch was 50 Bitcoin per block and 50% of the supply was issued. The second epoch, 25 Bitcoin per block and 25% of the total supply was issued. The third, 12.5 and 12.5% of the total supply was issued. And so every epoch is the percentage of inflation demonstrated in how many units per block. Yeah. Isn't that amazing? It's just so elegant.

Starting point is 00:47:45 And the mythology continues to grow. you know, with every little design choice. All right, let's leave that aside. What are all the actual impacts on people running businesses, on people holding Bitcoin on price? And the short answer is that, you know, miners are going to generate a lot less Bitcoin denominated revenue and less fees rise significantly.

Starting point is 00:48:07 I think the amount of net new Bitcoin available to the market is going to go down. So there's a market microstructure argument. I was having this discussion with Jack at strike. and probably a couple of months ago. And we both agree that there's 100% of market microstructure impact, and we have no idea how to quantify how big it actually is. Because you see a sailor wake up in the morning or an ETF wake up in the morning,

Starting point is 00:48:36 they might buy a month's worth of net new issuance, or a year's worth of net new issuance, as the case may be, as we get further and further out the epochs. So I don't know, but I think that the impact isn't zero and it obviously isn't everything. You know, I think like with like with everything around sort of a geometric adoption curve, it's just more time in the market. And as you get into the out years, especially on sort of the southern hemisphere of the S curve, which I think we're still on, you know, you get you get some of these exponential years.

Starting point is 00:49:10 You know, not in terms of price necessarily, but in terms of functionality and user adoption, So it's a huge opportunity to continue to put more Bitcoin into more people's hands and to put stronger freedom tech tools into more people's hands. And that's all incredibly meaningful. But, you know, why, you know, I love the American Hottle meme of green, green, green, red. And I love, you know, I love that we sort of have this historical cycle of price appreciating significantly in conjunction with a having. I have no idea what the chicken or the egg in that is, but it isn't a bad thing. Yeah, I mean, it's amazing how you get these cycles of speculators coming in that then some of them turn into long-term investors and long-term holders.

Starting point is 00:49:52 And when we look at where we're at right now in the cycle, we are aggressively being dominated by long-term holders just through what we can see on the on-chain data. I'm just curious as to the potency of the having at this point and whether that is going to be akin to previous cycles. And I think that I guess I'm hopeful that it is, but who knows? Who knows whether this is going to be like the last? I suspect it is, though. And this is why I go back to the most important part of the having is the demonstration

Starting point is 00:50:24 of the monetary policy. Yeah, I think that's a great thing. Because that's inarguable. Yeah. It's an arguable, right? And it's a really big deal. Like we say it and it's like, well, yeah, of course, that's what it does. But when you think about it, there's no person that can step in and say, nope, not this time.

Starting point is 00:50:40 I have all of these coins. I'm Michael Saylor. I have all these coins and I don't want it to or I want it to not go in half. I wanted to be a 90% reduction or whatever, right? No person has that authority, whether you're Satoshi or not. Exactly. It is the demonstration of the system functioning. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:51:03 And yes, I can say it. I can say it correctly. It's Satoshi, by the way. We know you're smart. But, you know, I stay away from the prediction game just because I don't know and I don't want to pretend to know. But I do with absolute certainty know that the demonstration of Bitcoin's monetary policy functioning as intended is what I latch on to the most because otherwise it's painful because, you know, Bitcoin mining revenue goes down in Bitcoin terms. Any other topics that you're really excited about kind of moving into. to this next cycle.

Starting point is 00:51:43 I'll tell you one that I heard that I thought was really interesting, but I want to hear your point of view. Yeah, you go first. I didn't mean to do that. Well, when I was up at the park, we were talking about mining and lightning, and one of the ideas that somebody came up with was almost like a derivatives market for specifically closing channels, the rate that you can close your channels at. So prior to basically the taproot asset protocol creating this massive fee event that's been happening on chain here for quite a while, we were dealing with two SATs per VB as being you could probably get into like the next couple blocks. But now it's like way high. And so if you were opening channels on the Lightning Network, it would be really nice to know that you can close those for whatever price. And it seems like they're made.

Starting point is 00:52:35 be in this coming cycle, a demand for some type of derivatives market that you know you can close a channel at a certain rate because you're protected through some type of derivative. Yeah. I've spent a ton of time talking to the voltage team and the Amboss team and, you know, some of these other lightning businesses and just putting it to them, what role can mining play in your business or in your network or in your ecosystem? And I think there's, I think it's a huge area of untapped opportunity. I think as the market for liquidity matures, the need for robust tooling, you know, you can pay for additional certainty at Channel Open. I think all of those, you know, all of those are really interesting. You know, we talked about the pool being the

Starting point is 00:53:24 block proposer versus the minor being a block proposer. I think, you know, having additional non-MMMPL native transaction agreements that go into effect around lightning or having them be transparent and open developing an open source financial market around these types of transaction categories. All of that's super exciting. And I think I love being long complexity in some of these ways because I think that the amount of, I think we undersell how much work and development has gone into what has turned our current financial system into relatively functional. and we're going to have to recreate all of that work on a different software basis.

Starting point is 00:54:06 And so why is it easy to make a Venmo payment or a Zell payment or a credit card payment? All of these money networks are huge businesses, you know, tens of billions of dollar businesses, $100 billion businesses for Visa and Amex and MasterCard. So I think the maintenance of an open source and permissionless and censorship resistance, transaction layer, not just settlement layer, is just going to take a lot of really good engineering. And from an economic perspective, if the generators of proof of work can participate in facilitating the advancement of that transaction layer, we'd love to. Anything else you're excited about?

Starting point is 00:54:50 I'm excited you're a general partner at ego, does. Thank you, sir. Appreciate that. Of course, congratulations. You guys have built a phenomenal team. and you're in incredible deals and your proof of work is just as good as the miners.

Starting point is 00:55:06 Thank you. Of course. You know, one of the things that came out in the National Energy and Mining Summit was just around the integration with energy assets. I think we're in such early days of that. You know, for me it feels very analogous

Starting point is 00:55:20 to, you know, where Bitcoin was five or ten years ago. Where, you know, right now, the Bitcoin network represents somewhere between 15 and 20 gigawatts of global power on a nameplate basis, you know, that's approaching 1%, depending on how firm those assets are, you know, between a half a percent and 1%. I think that number's going to go up a lot because, not because Bitcoin miners are, you know, the parasites that we're all told they are, but because Bitcoin miners fundamentally strengthen

Starting point is 00:55:49 power markets. So I'd expect nameplate install to go up, but up to go down because the need for the flexible consumer is becoming clearer and clearer. And Bitcoin miners are able to deliver that flexibility in order of magnitude better than other industries. And so I think the integration between mining and energy generation and transmission and delivery, that's all going up because I think the folks on the energy side get it. Oh, yeah. You think so?

Starting point is 00:56:20 For sure. That's wonderful. And there's a huge amount of innovation on the contracting status of, of those relationships. So I think of innovation in a number of different ways, right? Figuring out that railroads worked was a technical innovation. But at the same era, the joint stock company was another huge innovation. And that's a contractual innovation, not a technical innovation.

Starting point is 00:56:46 So I think Bitcoin mining is getting the technical innovation down pat, and the contractual innovation is going to start to happen as time goes on. So that's a, that's a parallel theme. This coming cycle. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I think, I think so. I think the need for America to build, especially America, to build more generation has never been clearer, right?

Starting point is 00:57:10 We're having net inflows on a population basis. And we're going to need to build out more data center, more HPC, more manufacturing. The onshoreing movement is not over after a long, you know, after a long. you know, after a long hiatus. So I think it's obvious to me that we're going to demand more electricity in 10 years than we do today. That doesn't even take into account that, you know, we basically went from 2 to 22% electrification of our energy.

Starting point is 00:57:38 So you can consume energy in a number of different ways. When you run your car, you're consuming energy. But also when you turn your lights on, you're consuming energy. In the household, that's electricity. In the car, that's combustion engine. The electrification comes with a different burden on the overall grid systems that power them. And so the higher, the electric factor of your power system, the more specialized needs there are around how that electricity gets birthed into existence relative to how, you know, if you imagine switching your house from a propane tank to an electric heater. Same joules, different mechanism.

Starting point is 00:58:16 And so I think the expansion of demand for energy is a clear and obvious trend and the demand for electrified energy is also a clear and obvious trend. And Bitcoin mining has a role to play in both. Let's wrap up the conversation talking about nuclear with these small modular nuclear. Yes. I know your opinion on this is that this is vital to growth inside of our country all over the world. What is the number one roadblock for this right now? Why is this not taking hold faster? Regulation.

Starting point is 00:58:51 Okay. So walk us through that. So walk us through that. How can that be fixed? How can the education on that change? Is it an education burden or what's the just typical bureaucracy that's holding it up or what? Yeah. Let's ground ourselves in the history briefly.

Starting point is 00:59:08 We build 95 gigawatts of nuclear power between 1970 and the early 90s. we basically are flat because we've shuttered plants since then. So we've built a few more. We've shuttered others, which is a crazy. And the single most detrimental thing that we as a society had done to ourselves in recent times, maybe not the single most, but it's too high on the list.

Starting point is 00:59:32 And we basically had three mile island happen. I forget if that was 87 or which year it was exactly. But basically three mile island happened. We already had a bunch that were in various stages of construction and planning. We finished those, and we massively slowed down after that. And I'm a nuclear EAC versus D-Cell. So we basically saw, we've seen an example of what happens when the decals win. And it was nuclear power from 1990 to 2016 when we started energizing the Vogel plants in Georgia.

Starting point is 01:00:06 The cultural impact around why that happened is that there were really scary things that happened and that were broadly televised on the news. those events didn't really result in loss of life or environmental contamination, but they were big, scary ideas. There's a great essay by Nick Zabo that you should read relative to this idea, which is he takes a second look at Pascal's Wager, and he wrote a piece called Pascal's stamp, which is, you know, if you take, you know, if I say there's a one in one billion chance that the world ends, all of a sudden I've got to fight against a lot of demons. But that's a total waste of time because the chances are one in a billion. Nuclear basically fell victim to Pascal's wager, but I think the nuclear decal movement was really Pascal's scam. The likelihood that bad things were going to happen based on nuclear power is infinitesimally low.

Starting point is 01:00:59 It's significantly less dangerous than coal or oil. It's roughly on par with solar on a loss of life per terawatt hour. It's an incredibly safe technology. You know, Chernobyl was the example. that everybody kind of points to. There were three other reactors at the Chernobyl site. All of them ran for 17 more years after the meltdown. It only impacted one of the reactors.

Starting point is 01:01:23 So, you know, and there were massive internal alarms, and it was really a Soviet bureaucracy problem that resulted in that catastrophe, not a system failure. That system failure should have been caught significantly earlier. So unfortunately, the HBO show is very well made, but wildly historically inaccurate. it. You know, we go through this chilling period. Then we wake up to, we just need to shut them down

Starting point is 01:01:48 movement that took hold in Germany. It took hold in New York. You know, the loss of Indian point is a huge travesty. And if they hadn't shut that down, I might have considered staying and not moved to Nashville. But, you know, good for me. I got to get out of there where TVA operates some of the best nuclear assets in the world in our backyard. The case against them is crazy. do I think there's an education problem? I think there's more of a generational problem and there is an education problem. I know lots of young people who are really excited about nuclear

Starting point is 01:02:19 outside of Bitcoin. But I think there's a lot of narrative work that the Nuclear Energy Institute has done over the last 15 years to both fight against bad regulation and legislation, but also improve the quality of education around what I believe is the best form of generation that we've discovered thus far.

Starting point is 01:02:40 So I think, you know, we see China building a ton of SMRs. We see Poland. We see areas of Africa that are looking to build them. And, you know, the great news is, is that four of the incredible technology companies that are building the tech to actually put an SMR into the world, those are all American companies. We should build them here. Look, I think, you know, like with many things, you need the will to win.

Starting point is 01:03:07 And we need to find our will to win. and a lot of that is going to be a function of how we choose to staff our nuclear regulatory commission, the NRC. That's where a lot of this friction is coming from, whether it's from a technology approval. New Scale has an approved design, but they've been really hesitant to let any of the other designs into the wild. And then it comes down to being able to actually get a site to build one of these things, which also requires additional approval and zoning, geological study.

Starting point is 01:03:38 et cetera. And to be clear, I am incredibly in favor of doing an enormous amount of diligence on what technology we're willing to bring to market with, you know, an active isotope. And then also what location we choose to put there. There's got to be community buy-in. But go to, there are 99 nuclear reactors operating in the U.S. today. Go to one of those towns and ask them, how do they feel about the plant? Huge amount of property tax revenue. It's quiet. It doesn't emit anything like a coal plant does. It's clean. It's a big employer. Their power cost is low. So those communities love them. It's really just sort of the ghost that we have put into many of our minds around what this, you know, uh-oh, nuclear equals bomb. That's the talk track that we need to

Starting point is 01:04:30 break out of and understand that what if you didn't name it nuclear? What if you named it, clean, cheap power monument? Instead, you know, how many of those would we want? So I think there's huge opportunity there. I'm really, really hopeful that the leadership that we look to today will understand this point of view. I think the utilities want it. I think the consumers want it. And I think, you know, the government, when they think about the issue in the right way, they should want it to. I love it. Harry, I could talk to you all day.

Starting point is 01:05:04 Thank you so much for coming on and doing this. What do you want to? People can follow you online. I know on Twitter, acts or whatever we're calling it these days. Bitcoin Park. We'll have a link to Bitcoin Park. What else do you want to throw out there? Check us out at grid.com.

Starting point is 01:05:20 We love to mine Bitcoin. If you're an energy utility, reach out and ask us about how mining can help you, whether it's us or somebody else. I just want to see more miners directly integrate with their electric systems because that's how we win. Yes. All right. Well, tons of just valuable information and we just really appreciate your time for coming on today. Preston, you're the best. I appreciate your brother.

Starting point is 01:05:47 Thanks. If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use, just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin-specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I'd love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable, if you can leave a review, we would really appreciate that. And it's something that helps others find the interview in the search algorithm. So anything you can do to help out with a review, we would just greatly appreciate. And with that, thanks for listening. And I'll catch you again next week.

Starting point is 01:06:20 Thank you for listening to TIP. To access our show notes, courses or forums, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC167: How Decentralized is Bitcoin Mining w/ Harry Sudock (Bitcoin Podcast)

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