We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC175: MicroStrategy Deep Dive w/ Jeff Walton (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey everyone, welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast. On today's show, I have Mr. Jeff Walton, who's been a thought leader on social media with respect to covering micro strategy. As a shareholder of micro strategy and someone that finds the financial engineering taking place on the company to be one of the most fascinating things that can be covered in modern finance, I brought Jeff on to talk about some of the strange and interesting developments with respect to the price action and methods folks are using from a valuation.

Starting point is 00:00:30 standpoint. In no way are we encouraging a person to buy or sell this particular stock. But as you'll see from our talk, we talk about our personal positions and what might be in store for us in this very esoteric situation with respect to the company's ownership. So with that, here's my conversation with Mr. Jeff Walton. Celebrating 10 years. You are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. Hey, everyone, welcome to the show. I'm here with Jeff Walton. And this one, I'll tell you what, Jeff.

Starting point is 00:01:17 I have been excited for this conversation since it just kind of percolated up out of Twitter just a few days ago. I've been sitting here just like really kind of excited to have this because I think this is going to be a really, really engaging conversation. So welcome to the show. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Yeah, excited to be here. I'm excited to share some game theory, some analysis and, you know, a little bit of off-the-wall thing.

Starting point is 00:01:40 Yeah, I love that. So for people that aren't familiar with the banter on Twitter, the back and forth and whatnot, we are, I'm a shareholder of micro strategy, you're a shareholder of micro strategy. Everybody is talking about price targets, what they think about what Michael's doing, this and that. But what I want to do is start off helping people, because here's the thing about micro strategy. It's so dang volatile. You know, as a Bitcoiner for nearly a decade now, One of the things that we hear so often is like, how do you get on the horse or how do you, it's almost like you're trying to jump on this speedboat that's coming past the dock. And it's so volatile, it's moving so fast that it feels like there's never a right moment

Starting point is 00:02:23 to get on it. And I would just emphasize that I think micro strategy, and I'm sure you agree with this, is like 2x or 3x harder to jump on than Bitcoin itself. And so what I really, really, really want to guard against is people will see me and you and others talking about micro strategy on Twitter. And they're just like, all these guys seem like they know what they're talking about. I want to buy micro strategy and own it as well and follow along. And what I guess the way I want to start off the show is I want to just talk about my position

Starting point is 00:02:57 that I took in micro strategy, the price that I took it, not to like try to show off that I got it at a great price. It's more to show people where I was when I took that decision and what financial analysis I was doing to make the decision. And then kind of like how I'm looking at my participation in it moving forward so that we can add a whole lot of context to all these comments that I know people are going to see on Twitter and elsewhere. And I don't like to start off shows where I'm talking so much. This is an interview with you. But this is something that I've really wanted to do because I know I'm talking about micro strategy a lot online. And I don't want people to have this

Starting point is 00:03:34 impression that they should go out and buy it right now because I'm not saying to buy it or not buy it. I'm just trying to cover it. And obviously, because I have a position, I'm very interested in it. So all of that aside, I'm going to go really fast. And then I want to throw it over to you because I want to hear kind of your point of view. But real fast for the audience, my basis for my very first buy in Microstrategy, and this was a one-time buy that I did. This was in an IRA account for both of these positions that I'm talking about.

Starting point is 00:04:01 This was in the 21st of November, 2022. I paid $159.63 for my basis on the first buy. The second buy was more recently in January, the 22nd of January of 2024, when the price of micro strategy dropped below what the Treasury value, the Bitcoin Treasury value was. There was this really short moment. It got down to like 460, 450, somewhere in that range. And I was valuing the Treasury over, it was over $500 at the time when I bought a leap, a long call option.

Starting point is 00:04:36 I just bought it at the strike of 470. The price at the moment was at 470. I didn't do it out of the money. And it matures. I did it since it's a leap. It's long dated. It's a 19 December 2025 call. So there's over 600 days that remain on this.

Starting point is 00:04:51 And again, it's in an IRA account. So I don't have the tax ramifications. So those are my two positions. I have not added to those positions. I don't think that I will add to those positions. I think I'm just going to continue to squat on those. there's like really would appear to be really well-time positions. And so as I continue to talk about it in probably a year from now, I'm going to probably

Starting point is 00:05:13 still be sitting on these positions and I'm not going to be selling them and I'm not going to be adding to them. And I think that that's really, really important context for people. All right. Sorry to talk so much. I want you to go and kind of talk through the same kind of setup so people can kind of understand where you're coming from with it. Yeah, absolutely.

Starting point is 00:05:29 I think that's a fabulous context. I had a similar situation where I purchased. micro strategy for the first time in 2021, except I was at the very peak. I bought it at the very peak. So I kind of rode the GameStop wave. I made a crazy investment decision where I liquidated my entire portfolio. I bought GameStop shares. I rode that wave to the top, exited when sentiment broke, and ended up having to figure out where to put that money over the next couple of weeks after that. So part of it was in Bitcoin. I was still in that period where I was trading Bitcoin, and I didn't really understand what it was. And, you know, there was a lot of volatility. I didn't really

Starting point is 00:06:09 know what was going on. But I was also fascinated by the fact that there was a company that moved 100% of their cash assets over to Bitcoin. I was like, wow, this is incredible. What's going on? I've never seen anybody do this before. This is just so strange. So, Jeff, give folks real fast, just the background on what it is that you do and what your background is. I am a reinsurance broker. So I sell insurance to insurance companies. And so what that effectively does is diversifies weather risk and insurance risk across the globe. So we take tranches of weather risk from, you know, large insurance companies and diversify those.

Starting point is 00:06:49 So we'll have anywhere from 10 to 50 reinsurers on any one individual risk tranche, and we're outselling those to individual reinsurers across the globe. I've got a unique perspective on how big money kind of. it moves, really, because it's insurance for insurance companies. And the reinsurance market is highly dependent on current rate environment, opportunity cost of capital. There's different types of insurance and reinsurance to allocate to different locations, different regions. And so that understanding of the insurance market and the reinsurance market and how insurance and reinsurance market cycles work has given me a unique perspective on how the stock

Starting point is 00:07:27 market works and how all of the capital world kind of fits together. I think that's the why I might have a different perspective or a unique perspective compared to other people, because I'm seeing the big money moves from the top down and looking at it almost like a chessboard as opposed to being from the bottom up looking at trying to understand what's going on. Let me ask you this, because I think this is important context too. It seems like that you're a little bit more of a trader or that like you would be looking at this position if it blew out to like some of these crazy numbers that we're going to get into that you're saying that you think it could go to, you would potentially exit that position. Whereas I am a very long-term holder. Like, from my

Starting point is 00:08:06 point of view, if I could own micro strategy and never sell it in my entire life, I would probably do that. If I think that the fundamentals will still remain there and that they deploy their treasury and like this whole other stuff that we're going to get into, I really just never want to realize. And I, again, it's in an IRA account, so I don't really have this problem. But I just have this inherent bias that I buy things very, very long and I try to never get rid of them. And if the volatility blows out like crazy and we can talk about what the ramifications of that might be for micro strategy, I'm more looking at it from the lens of Michael's going to do what Michael does and he's going to do it really well better than I could do it.

Starting point is 00:08:44 And I'm just going to let him do his thing because he's a pro, right? Yeah. I'm curious, is that correct? Is that correct frame? Definitely not. I'm certainly not a traitor. I was a traitor for the game stop play because that was a dynamic that I was seeing in the market that it felt like wasn't going to break. And I felt like I was at the front end of it. And I went through that whole process. And I had to think through the game theory associated with the GameStop trade. And the game theory associated with that was that there were more players in the game than just retail.

Starting point is 00:09:15 Retail was not moving the trade. Retail compressed the trade. But there were also large hedge funds in the trade that were burying Citadel and Melvin Capital and knowing that there were other players in the game influenced how I made decisions. Talk us through this. Talk us through the GameStop, like, if you can, give everybody an overview of how it blew out, like, what was causing it, who some of the major players were if you do know.

Starting point is 00:09:42 The GameStop trade was incredibly interesting. So I was following it, go from, you know, 20 to 30 to 40 to 70 in a week, purchased put options on a Friday. I realized I was screwed over the weekend. I sold the put options for a profit on Monday morning and liquidated my entire portfolio. And I bought Spot GameStop shares on Monday morning. And then kind of rode that way from 70 bucks all the way up to, you know, 300 or whatever that happened on a Wednesday or Thursday. Robin Hood turned the buy button off on Thursday.

Starting point is 00:10:16 And that was, I will never forget this. I still had free capital. I think I just got my bonus or something. And I wanted to double down. I was like, I'm buying today. I'm buying more. This phenomenon still exists. Then I realized I couldn't buy anymore.

Starting point is 00:10:32 And I could only sell. And at that point, sentiment had kind of, in my mind, had kind of been broken, right? Like, it made people think, what is this company actually worth? And you start to zoom out, right? And you're looking at a market cap of, I don't know what it was at, but like 30 billion or something like that. And you start to look at over the weekend, I was. Totally ruined a vacation with my wife, which is still over one for that. But over the weekend, I was looking at what their assets were.

Starting point is 00:10:55 I was trying to value the company, almost doing the opposite of what I've done in this micro strategy trade. And, you know, starting to realize that there were other players in the game, like these large hedge funds. I don't know who they were, but I was watching the order book and the blocks of trades that were occurring in the order book over time were 20,000 shares. 50,000 shares, and that's not retail. Retail moves two, three, four, five shares here and there, not 50,000 shares. One of the things that I think is really important with what you're talking about

Starting point is 00:11:31 with GME, when you're looking at it from a market cap size, like it was a P, it's really small relative to the size of micro strategy and some of these other SMP companies. And so when you had so much short selling taking place for major players, they're looking at this and they're saying, all right, well, if I can apply this much capital to these short traders, they're going to become forced buyers. I'm going to blow this thing out and I can just liquidate rug pool, get out, and walk away. But I think a really, really important consideration in that particular trade was the size or the market cap of GME in the face of how many people were talking about it. And that made it a very unique scenario. And then you had the whole Wall Street bets and like the social media

Starting point is 00:12:14 aspect combined on top of that of something with such a small market cap. Yeah, it was a small market cap. And I think more importantly, it was a small float. I think there were 72 million shares that were tradable at the very beginning when I looked into this. And I realized there were like 60 million shares short. And that is just pretty simple math. Like, okay, if there's, you know, if there are more people buying this than there are

Starting point is 00:12:41 shares available, then the shorts have to close this position. and it seemed like a no-brainer. It's like, yeah, I'm going to take a position because I know other smart people see what I see. And that was my ultimate strategy. The hardest part was figuring out to exit because there's this diamond hand. I know I'm probably going to get crap for this,

Starting point is 00:12:59 but there's this diamond hands, aping in and holding, but I had to figure out what smart money was doing. And smart money in thinking about this, right, if they got in at $70 and they wrote it to $300, if you've got a billion, you know, a $500 million position on this and you just turn 300% return, you just made your entire company's returns for five years in a single trade. And whereas retail is holding out for 10,000 percent returns because that's going to change their life.

Starting point is 00:13:30 And knowing that the smart money is happy with two or 300 percent returns and they're likely going to exit, I had to follow what smart money was doing. All right. Well, let's dig into Microsoft. No, no, no, this is good. So let's dig in the micro strategy. So when you're looking at it, walk us through how you think about it from evaluation standpoint.

Starting point is 00:13:50 How I think about micro strategy. Actually, I kind of want to get back to this trader. Yeah, let's do it then. The trading position. So I think in the last four years, I've been fully orange-pilled, right? Like I'm full Bitcoin, full steam ahead. I've got Bitcoin on cold storage. I think holding it on cold storage and making it on chain transaction.

Starting point is 00:14:11 is a phenomenally worthwhile exercise. Yes. Once you do it on chain transaction, you see the math. You see how everything works. And then understanding that there's a company that holds drastically more Bitcoin than anybody else and likely there's no other company that's going to catch them, I wanted to be on that side of the trade. Thinking about Horizon, if you take the same perspective with Bitcoin as you do with

Starting point is 00:14:39 micro strategy agree with you 100%. This is a buy and hold forever. And if you start to see what Michael Saylor is doing and how he's managing capital, you can do the same conceptual thing with your micro strategy holdings. You can use your micro strategy holdings in an investment account as collateral to take out a loan to do with it what you will. Like go buy a house or do whatever you need to do. Alternatively, there are other ways to harvest the yield off of long-term holdings with covered calls or covered put options. And there are strategies where you never have to hold or you never have to sell your micro strategy holdings in perpetuity.

Starting point is 00:15:22 And I think having that thorough and fundamental understanding and thinking a little bit differently helps provide perspective on the micro strategy trade. I think the really interesting part to me is that Bitcoin effectively undermines the entire perspective of the micro strategy trade. You can't un-Bitcoin a bitconer. I've never seen it happen. I've never seen somebody that's super pro-Bitcoin and ends up switching gears and ends up not being a bickoiner. And those are the people that are holding micro-strategy. I think the other thing that I did want to talk about is that I've seen a lot of these like cold storage maxis where they're, you know, you should only buy Bitcoin in cold storage or you

Starting point is 00:16:04 should only buy Bitcoin ETF, not the, not micro strategy. There's, you know, risks associated with it. I definitely understand and agree that there are risks associated with different forms of purchasing Bitcoin correlated assets. And I think they both have a position in somebody's portfolio. I think that micro strategy is effectively creating a proof of concept of how somebody that holds Bitcoin and Cold Storage could potentially earn a yield on it. And we kind of get into that. But yeah. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord,

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Starting point is 00:20:42 Back to the show. Well, so this is where, so when I put on the position back in the day, or you could just say back in 2022 or even here in January, when I was looking at the price and I'm saying, okay, the price is trading below

Starting point is 00:20:54 just the treasury value alone. This doesn't make any sense. I think that there should be at least a slight premium on top of it, just being very conservative in my valuation process. And I'm looking at the underlying Bitcoin and I'm saying, I think that in this coming cycle, I think it's totally in the realm of possible to go between 300,000 to 500,000 on the price of Bitcoin within by the call date of December of 2025. So when I'm looking at that and I was looking at the value, the Treasury at the time, let's just ballpark it and say it was worth $500 a share, the Bitcoin in

Starting point is 00:21:28 in each share was worth about $500. And so I'm saying, okay, so let's just say at 10 X's from here would be a reasonable estimate. So the Treasury values $5,000. And I think that the shares should be in this cycle. I'm just kind of valuing in a very short term kind of way. I'm looking at that. I was like, I can do these calls at $470, a strike at $470. And I think they're worth in excess of $5,000 a share within 18 months.

Starting point is 00:21:54 So it was just kind of a no-brainer for me. And the valuation for me was just really simple because I was completely discounting and not even trying to value the longer tail to all of this, which we can kind of talk about next. But just, I guess as a Buffett investor and kind of looking at it as like, okay, this is just, this is just obvious. Like this one's not even hard. The value is there. Like, I'd be crazy to not like lock this in right now. I'm curious is, was for you, was it a very similar process or were you looking at this very differently? It was a pretty similar process.

Starting point is 00:22:28 I mean, I really started with the Bitcoin holdings and where I thought Bitcoin could go as a as a baseline. And I was thinking, you know, okay, maybe it goes to 200,000. What is their treasury of Bitcoin holdings at 200,000? What is it at $500,000? What is it at a million? And looking at those impacts to their corporate treasury over time at these different Bitcoin prices.

Starting point is 00:22:49 And then I tried to zoom out and look at the market as a whole. What is a stock? You know, what is the stock market? What drives value in the stock market? And this is where I really started to apply the game theory associated with the stock market. The stock market is not a casino. A lot of people think it's a casino, but really it's a playing field. It's a dynamic playing field and everybody's playing the game.

Starting point is 00:23:13 And everybody's got a different strategy. And if you understand the strategy of the different players in the game, and some of the strategies are very basic and very static, If you understand those strategies and you understand the dynamics of the playing board, you can develop a strong strategy to understand where capital is going to move. There's more players to the game than just retail, just the people that are on Twitter. In fact, just retail probably may except maybe 5% of the stock market. That's probably way too much, actually. Maybe it's 2%.

Starting point is 00:23:46 Really, I tried to zoom out and think about the structural design of the stock market. and how other stocks are evaluated, right? I looked at how is Apple evaluated? And what I did is I created this top 20 U.S. equity comparison. So I looked at the top 20 equities in the U.S. stock market. And I looked at different metrics that people used to value these companies, right? I looked at PE ratios. I looked at liabilities to asset ratios.

Starting point is 00:24:15 I looked at multiples on net asset value. I looked at earnings per share. And what I found was there was no one single homogenous way to compare any asset in the top 20 assets. I think I've heard you talk about PE ratios, like average PE ratios. There's average PE ratios, but the PE ratios deviate drastically, right? Like, I think Eli Lilly's PE ratios 123. And they're the eighth largest US equity. And so when you start to think about this, like, okay, there's no homogenous way to compare any of these statistics. What is the true.

Starting point is 00:24:51 real indicator of what a company is worth. And how far into the future do investors look at these investments? In thinking about like zooming out even further, right, looking at Microsoft, Apple, some of the really top ones, I've really kind of boiled it down to this, looking at net asset value and kind of comparing some net asset values because the top companies, in my opinion, the top companies in the stock market, they're valued purely based on sales. sentiment and future financial strength. And future financial strength is a function of profits and revenues in the future or the strength of their assets and how productive their assets can be. And how long they can remain competitive? And how long they can remain competitive? Absolutely.

Starting point is 00:25:40 Absolutely. That was the perspective I took. And I was trying to think about it occurred to me that every single one of these companies all had different types of assets. They all had fundamental different business models and ways of generating revenue and different ways of utilizing the financial markets, right? They all have different shares outstanding. Some are issuing shares, some are doing share buyback, some are issuing debt. And there's an enormously creative and large world of capital markets that can be utilized. And all these companies are doing those types of things and doing them a little bit differently. But where those large companies really get value is from the passive component of the market, the passive index fund component

Starting point is 00:26:25 of the market. So the S&P 500, QQQ, total stock market index, all of those index funds. I did some math on this. There's like, I think apples, of Apple's holdings, I think about 12% of Apple's holdings are, actually, I think six percent of Apple's holdings are S&P 500 ETFs. Yeah. I think it makes up, I think it makes up like $360 billion. Right. And that's a whale. That is an absolute whale. And they're not going anywhere. Any future dollars that are going to S&P 500 ETF, they have a market cap weighted allocation that's going to Apple. And so this kind of gets into the fundamental design of the stock market. I mean, who's investing in these passive ETFs? And it's pension funds, it's insurance companies, it's endowments, it's everybody with a 401k and they don't want to, they don't know what to do with it. So they're just putting it an index fund. And I think there's a large, a very, very, very, very large pool of capital in the stock market that is just a passive zombie and not really doing anything. If you know that there's this large chunk of capital that's a passive zombie in the market that's not doing anything, the value of a stock is actually everything else that's trading on the margin. It's actually a very small number of shares that people are trading that are determining the value of the stock.

Starting point is 00:27:44 And if the sentiment of that small, of that small tranche of people that are trading equity changes or shifts, that's how you would see any change in like these large or any equity, really. It's what's trading at the margin, not everything else. Very, very long-winded way of thinking about the market. That's how I think about the market. I take this like very, very high-level view. So then I look at micro strategy, right?

Starting point is 00:28:12 And they've got, at the time, when I was doing this, they had like 127,000 Bitcoin. And it was more than 10x, the next closest company with Bitcoin. And I was trying to think my way through, like, okay, who can catch them? If this is truly the new financial ecosystem, the rails of the new financial ecosystem, who could possibly catch them? I think I heard Sayler say, you know, if it's good for a million, it's good for 10 million. If it's good for 10 million, it's good for 100 million. And if you take that concept and you start, you know, applying $10 million per Bitcoin times

Starting point is 00:28:46 $205,000 now, you start looking at those numbers, they're staggering. And that is financial strength because they have the ability to use those assets as collateral to generate a yield. And I think that's something that most of the market misses is that Bitcoin is eventually going to be used as collateral. And it's already being teased out right now, right? You start to see these loans where you could start to use your collateral, your Bitcoin collateral to get a loan to go buy a house.

Starting point is 00:29:17 Micro Strategy is effectively going to be the bank in the future offering liquidity for Bitcoin financial system at some point in the future. They don't need to do it now, way too volatile to do it now. But as the number of coins mined, as we get to 2034 where 99% of the coins have been mined, the volatility is likely going to have reduced decently. From that point of view, if I'm Michael and I'm looking at what risk premium I would need to lend them out, like, you would literally laugh in my face if I said the number. Because I'm looking at the return that I'm going to get just naturally through the

Starting point is 00:29:56 appreciation because of how early we are in the timeline. And I'm saying, you'd have to pay me like, you know, well over 50% annualized for me to assume that risk that you're going to actually pay them back. to me. And so anybody who's not valuing them at some crazy level like that, or I guess it's not crazy, it's very rational why you would want that type of return to lend them out, you realize why he's not doing these fancy things with it. And there's no reason to do any fancy things with it. And we're probably 10 years out or whatever until there's going to come a time where you can start to do this in a way that, you know, maybe it gets down to 20%, 30%, percent.

Starting point is 00:30:38 to start lending these things out in the early days of it kind of starting to make sense. And again, we're probably talking 10 years from now before we get to that point. But I love your point about, you know, he's going to effectively become a bank with this treasury. And he's also going to be looking at the economic calculation of all the other equities that exist in them now being redenominated and recapped in Bitcoin terms. And I think we're going to see PEs down to five or whatever. They're definitely not going to be 35. That's for Dangshore. And so your point that you bring up about can anybody catch up without there being massive amounts of slippage?

Starting point is 00:31:16 Because the amount that Michael would have to be paid to sell the company outright or to collect his treasury, I don't think that there could be a number for him. Yeah, I agree with that. I don't think there's a number. I also agree with your loan terms, right? I don't think this is a short term perspective. However, it's naive to not consider it. 10, 20 years from now, the price of Bitcoin is going to be far less volatile because there's going to be much more, it's just the way that the S curve and the adoption curve works.

Starting point is 00:31:50 Bitcoin's going to be far less volatile on a relative numbers scale and basis. And it all comes down to like actuarial science. If you're able to throw a volatility charge on what Bitcoin price is moving and how, where you're generating your yield from, that it will. will all be able to be calculated at some point in the future. And I think if you think about the current global economy and how things are produced and how the world kind of works, I tend to boil it down to, there are two major components economically that allow the world to function.

Starting point is 00:32:26 And it's lending and insurance. And because if you have a business idea and you want to go start a business because you think you can go make disproportionate amount of money, you need to go get a loan from somebody to run with this idea. So that's what that's one component. And then you've got the insurance component without insurance, life would be too risky to do anything. Without insurance and without reinsurance, life would be too risky to do anything. And having both of those components are necessary for kind of a functioning economy. And if we're going to think about a Bitcoin denominated world, you need to have lending and you need to have insurance.

Starting point is 00:33:06 And if you're looking at a company with more than 10x, the amount of Bitcoin of anybody else, I think they're going to have the opportunity to get into these ventures with lending and potentially insurance and generating a yield off of those functional business structures. Jeff, let's get into the thing that I think you and I had a little bit of back and forth on that maybe we see this a little bit differently with respect to capturing the spread. I love this. I'm kind of beating the drum and, to be quite honest with you, just kind of having fun and tagging Michael and I know he can't respond and I don't want him to respond.

Starting point is 00:33:48 But when I'm looking at like right now today, and it's so funny because literally back in January, February, the price of micro strategy was at parity or even above the treasury value. Today, I would say that the treasury values around like the Bitcoin on his treasury is worth about $800 a share. And the post market closed today, it's sitting at $1,784 per share. So you have basically a $1,000 premium above the treasury just since January, February. And that is massive. That is huge.

Starting point is 00:34:23 And so I'm looking at this. And he's obviously been announcing all these convertible. debt deals. Recently, he did an $800 million convertible debt deal. Then just a couple days ago, he announced another one. I think it's $525 million that can be converted into common stock. And I think it's at like 85 bips. It's like a pittance, the interest rate on what he's getting here because, and this is what's so crazy for fixed income, this is probably one of the best fixed income instruments on the planet right now to buy if you have a mandate to own fixed income. People are looking at it There's no yield.

Starting point is 00:34:58 Like, who, what idiot is buying this? And I'm looking at it and saying, no, you don't understand. This is literally the best fixed income thing that you can possibly buy if you have a mandate for it. And just as one other point to this, people are completely missing how important and how valuable this is for Michael's other strategy, which is to convert the common stock spread into more Bitcoin onto his balance sheet when it's trading at a premium to his treasury. And the reason why is because all these convertible fixed income instruments are able to provide deep liquidity into the common stock.

Starting point is 00:35:35 Okay, that's what's lost because you have all this Wall Street fast money that you kind of addressed earlier in the show that's coming in and they're hedging both sides of this. They're trying to capture the spread. They're not long-term holders. They're in and out. They're taking a short position. And they're just trying to get a risk-free return. But what that does is it adds absurd, absurd amount. ounce of volume to the common stock because of these convertible debt instruments that he keeps

Starting point is 00:36:00 issuing. So it's almost like this scenario where he is able to capture this common stock spread to the treasury by, because he has such deep liquidity, I literally saw today, he had the same volume of trade as Amazon today, which for people that aren't like falling along is totally nuts, nuts for the market cap size of his company to have this. So if I'm trying to put on that trade where I'm trying to issue all this common stock, transmuted into Bitcoin, and I have deep liquidity in the common stock, like I can do that all day long because there's so much liquidity. I think Wall Street is totally asleep at the wheel. And now to the point where you and I were kind of going back and forth, you were suggesting hold off because the spread's going to blow out more.

Starting point is 00:36:51 and I'm just saying, I don't want to get greedy, like, be this little piggy, thinking that I can perfectly time that. And I'm just saying, just capture the spread. It's $1,000 right now. Just capture the spread. So let me hear your point of view on, and I think some of this goes to your GameStop experience. Why do you think it's going even more absurd than $1,000 per share on the spread? I think it's going more absurd. I, you know, I've tried to think through this volume conundrum a little bit on the micro strategy daily volume. And I think it's a total misnomer of the actual shares trading at the margin because I think there's a bunch of HFT, high frequency trading algos that are trying to capture risk-free

Starting point is 00:37:34 premium based on some underlying fundamental algorithm pegged to Bitcoin. And I think that is a, it's not real volume. Oh, really? Okay. So you don't, you think that even though the numbers are there that it could disappear pretty quickly. I think the actual number of shares trading at the margin is far smaller than what the volume indicates. And I think that's why we're seeing the premium grow at such a rapid pace. Why is that? Why are you saying that? I'm saying that because the float is so incredibly,

Starting point is 00:38:08 like the shares outstanding is so incredibly small. You've got, you got 17 million, whatever, people are going to argue about that. 17 million shares outstanding per se. Saylor's got 15% of them. You've got ETFs that have another, I don't know, 30% institutional investors have 60%. Institutional investors are not selling this. You've got retail that's bullying their head in here. And so now, like, when you start to do some really rough math, of the 17 million shares outstanding, you probably have like, I don't know, 13 or 14 million that aren't moving

Starting point is 00:38:42 at all. And it might be more than that. I would argue that it probably is more than that. And so really, you may see these massive volume figures, but I think those volume figures are a total misnomer because what's actually trading at the margin of people that are actually buying and people are actually selling is much, much, much, much, much smaller. So, Jeff, but doesn't that go to my point of saying,

Starting point is 00:39:03 capture the spread now while you can get it? Because if you sit around and wait, you're going to be too illiquid, and you're going to get, you're playing a fool's errand of trying to time something like that when you should just capture the spread. Yeah, like come back to that is that more passive money is coming and people are holding. Right. You're saying the S&P 500 entrants. No, no, no, not the S&P 500, right?

Starting point is 00:39:26 There are, micro strategy is already included in a handful of market cap weighted indexes. Index funds. So one being the Vanguard total stock market index fund. You've got all of the Russell index funds. They're in the Russell 2000. You've got many index funds that they're already included in. So passive money comes into this trade month. probably daily. There's no great way to see when it exactly comes in. But passive money is going

Starting point is 00:39:52 to come in. And as the market cap rises and those funds rebalance and reallocate the weight distributions of their total funds, the relative proportion of new dollars coming in is going to be a larger proportion of the fund. Forget the S&P 500. It's a great story. And if it happens, it's even, It's jet fuel to this thing. But you already have passive money that's coming into the transaction. What do we know about Bitcoin? There's some pretty big events that are on the horizon in the next month and a half. And we've got the halving.

Starting point is 00:40:26 And there's a lot of bowl scenarios going on here. You've got quantitative easing, interest rates, everything that's going on. And my argument was just be, I think you can be strategic. and I'm sure they're calculating some relative accelerations in the price of Bitcoin relative to the price of micro strategy in terms of rate of return. And you could take the derivative of that curve. And once that rate, the relative rate of change between Bitcoin and micro strategy changes, that's the time to issue new shares to maximize the relative premium.

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Starting point is 00:44:22 fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. Did you ever see one of these, and this is going to sound like I'm going off topic, but like I like to use nature or physics to try to help me think through problems like the one that you're talking about. There's this visual of this ball that like drops down and it has volatility versus one that you start and it just like is at a 45 degree angle and goes down. And what you often see in that clip is how the one that has more volatility is actually moving faster than the one that's just going straight at a 45. But what you fail to see is if you run that clip long enough and you keep watching it. The one that's at a 45 actually catches up to the one with

Starting point is 00:45:06 all the volatility and variance and then goes faster than it. So when I'm looking at what's playing out here, I see this being a very similar dynamic as that scenario where if Michael is stepping in and capturing the spread and he's doing it especially at a price where like when I'm looking at this next cycle and let's say I was bearish and I think we're going to go through another, and if I thought we were going through another cycle, which I think is a huge if, let's say it goes to 400 or 500, where's it coming back down to? And I would say 100,000, 90,000 would be the low, call it, what would it be two years from now or two and a half, three years from now? We would be seeing a low and maybe that it's 90,000. And if that's true,

Starting point is 00:45:52 any buys that are the transmutation of common stock to Bitcoin would be bad buys or dilutive to the shareholders if he was doing that. If he could lock in, you know, if he was, let's just say he was selling shares and collecting cash and then dropped it all in at 900 or 100,000 on the next low, that's how he would ensure that he's not dilutive. So with all of that said, I'm looking at the current price, and the current Bitcoin prices at $68,700 right now. And I'm saying you got about another $30,000 in Bitcoin where it's a very, very high probability trade to capture the spread because if you go through another cycle, it could be dilutive. So like to your point, you're saying let that spread blow out because I'm with you, it might just blow out to like epic

Starting point is 00:46:43 proportions, right? Like that's really kind of your point. You're saying let that blow out, then let's capture it. Maybe the price of Bitcoin's, and I don't want to take words out of your mouth, but maybe the price of Bitcoin is 120,000 when you get to that peak blowout. And what I'm saying is you're transmuting it at a basis that is higher than where the next low could go, which could result in you actually being somewhat dilutive to the shareholders in that scenario. But I don't know. I think this is one of those scenarios where all the years that I've participated in markets,

Starting point is 00:47:16 I usually get burnt the most when I try to get too cute with things. And I try to, like, I'm not trying to be mean. When you said it's calculus, like, I can't even tell you the red flag that like went up in my head. It was like, that's a bad idea. Because you're saying it's calculus, it's a bad idea. It's too complicated. Yeah. It's too complicated.

Starting point is 00:47:38 Yeah. I definitely understand. I think one of the points I was getting at is like the velocity at that time was rapidly changing. And if everybody, if you think about, again, this is game theory, right, just taking a step out, look at all the players in the game, if everybody that's actually truly holding Bitcoin is also holding micro strategy and the whole ethos of their entire trade is they're going to hold Bitcoin forever and they're going to hold micro strategy forever. I like this. If you know that they're not moving. We call them psychopaths. Let's just call

Starting point is 00:48:10 what it is. They're psychopaths. I'm one of them. You know it's not moving. I am not selling micro strategy won't one forever, but why would I sell now when I know the bull market is on the horizon? And so if you know what everybody, well, you've got institutions, they're not moving. You've got other smart traders that know what's going on. They're not moving. Everybody knows what's on the horizon. And then you have zombie money coming in the door to try to capture all of the remaining tiny liquid float. That spread is going to widen. And the velocity, the acceleration, We've seen it. I mean, we've seen it in the last two weeks.

Starting point is 00:48:47 Yeah. And I'm literally looking at the spread blowing out. And you're exactly right. It's accelerative. The spread that's blowing out is accelerative. And I guess when I'm looking at the fact that they had so much volume today, and I like your argument that maybe it's not actually all there and it might be a little bit of smoke and mirrors. But I'm also looking at Michael and I'm just like, dude, can you just like issue another like 25% of all your shares outstanding and just like capture this spread and

Starting point is 00:49:13 transmuted into Bitcoin and like, and then the price is really going to rip because he's going to have so much more Bitcoin at such a great basis as we're getting ready to go into an environment where I think we're going to see just absurd moves here in the coming year. Yeah, I think that makes sense. When I was comparing what you can do, right, you can issue shares or you can issue debt. When I looked at the company's balance sheet, relative to the assets they hold, it's like raising flags, go issue more debt. And that's what they did.

Starting point is 00:49:44 They went and did this kind of convertible debt bond, which I thought was a, that's a brilliant, that's a brilliant trade. Not to mention it helps in his taxes, like it reduces his tax burden, the interest rates are total pittance. And the enhanced volume in the common stock is I think the really like crazy qualitative kicker that people aren't thinking about. Yeah. I think the one interesting question, I've been talking about this on Twitter a little bit, is, I would love to be in the room sitting across the table at those meetings. Can you imagine what those meetings with the executive committee at Microstratologies like that when they're trying to go get $600 million of capital?

Starting point is 00:50:25 And who are those people, right? Are they actual funds or are they maybe sidecars of large corporations that won't, they know that they won't be able to get a Bitcoin purchase past their board? So maybe they go buy convertible debt somewhere else. AKA micro strategy. So I would really love to know who is on the other side of those transactions, and it's super opaque. I think the fact that you're seeing it being oversubscribed tells you everything you need to know. We don't need to know who it is.

Starting point is 00:50:56 It's just the fact that it's oversubscribed tells you there's a massive appetite for it. Like when you look at who the biggest shareholders are from an institutional standpoint, it's like really smirkworthy vanguard and others that like it's just hilarious. And let me ask you this. I'm of the firm opinion that we're watching something that is somewhat unimaginable and that is going to absolutely go down in the history books is probably one of the most obscene. I don't even like to call it a trade, but transitions of a company that is going to be a global dominant player in the future. Ten years from now, everybody's going to know what micro strategy is as if it was like Apple stock or whatever.

Starting point is 00:51:37 I absolutely 100% fundamentally agree with that statement. I truly think that this is the biggest move, the biggest financial move in the history of finance. Mm-hmm. And in the history of all of finance, I mean, this is, this is bigger than Ross Childs figuring out how to front run in the 1600s and turning into a multi-generational wealth. Like, this is fundamentally beyond comprehension, bigger than anything that's ever occurred before.

Starting point is 00:52:06 Totally agree. You heard the Coinbase announcement that they're going to. to drop a billion into the market. It was convertible debt, right? I think it was also convertible debt. Yeah. I looked at their balance sheet, and I don't know if they're using that billion

Starting point is 00:52:21 to refinance expiring debt. I haven't really looked into that much. I would doubt they're taking as big of a move financially as micro strategy and Michael are doing. But if it runs as well as their exchange runs, it's going to be a very poor use of funds. Yeah. Absolutely.

Starting point is 00:52:38 So should we get into some valuations and how I kind of ran and looked at this a little bit? Yeah, go ahead. So this is what I used as my baseline. This is that table that I showed where I was looking at all of these homogenous risk characteristics. You're looking at P-Ratios, multiples, et cetera. And I was looking at what Microstrategy was trading on it as its multiple, somewhere

Starting point is 00:53:00 around two and a half. And then you would see all of these other companies are trading in the range from anywhere from 1.6 to 14, 30, or 60 even in terms of their multiples. relative to their net assets, basically their assets minus the debt. And to me, that's a representation of their financial strength. I looked at micro strategy, and I wanted to do a dynamic price analysis, looking at different Bitcoin prices into the future, and how that would potentially impact the market cap at these different Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:53:30 prices at different multiples. And looking at what they're trading at today, they're trading out a 2.68 multiple of their net assets. So they're trading in a $30 billion market cap. And then you fast forward, when you look at a couple different Bitcoin prices, and so looking at a Bitcoin price of 125,000, if you take the same multiple that they're trading at today, 2.68, the price of Microstratology would be at a $61 billion market cap and a $3,500 price for micro strategy. You go all the way to the furthest right on the graph. I've got 275,000

Starting point is 00:54:03 Bitcoin price, which at a 2.68 multiple results in $143 billion market. market cap and $8,000 stock price. Now, thinking about where passive funds, how passive money flows into this, right? You've got the potential S&P 500, which is a boon. You've got potential QQ, which both are a boon to the amount of capital that would flow into the trade. But regardless, you still have market cap weighted indexes that are going to passively be pushing money into the transaction. And if people truly take this strong Bitcoin holder mentality to micro strategy, the number of shares traded at the margins are going to become razor thin

Starting point is 00:54:42 and price discovery to the upside will tear people's faces off. Lordy. Yeah. So I looked at multiple different trading multiples. So back in 2021, Microstrategia hit a six times multiple, like when it really peaked at about $1,000 back in,

Starting point is 00:55:02 in 2021, they were trading at six times multiple. So I took that same multiple and looked at different Bitcoin prices with that multiple. At $125,000 Bitcoin price and a six times multiple, that results in $137 billion market cap and about an $8,000 micro strategy price. Again, as you could start to see as you go further, if your price assumptions for Bitcoin go further out up to $275,000,

Starting point is 00:55:30 or I've obviously got many columns hidden here, with a $275,000 Bitcoin price and a six times multiple, you're looking at $321 billion market cap and $18,000 share price. When GameStop had its short squeeze and there was significant pressure on the remaining float and there was price discovery to the upside because the number of shares trading at the margin was so incredibly small, it was trading at a 49 times net asset value. Wow. In looking at what a 49 times net asset value looks like at, I,

Starting point is 00:56:06 $125,000 at $125,000 Bitcoin price, trading it at 49 times multiple. You're looking at a $1 trillion market cap. So I love that you went here. But I would push back to a point that I made earlier in the show as far as market cap size, how much are you attributing like this multiple of 49, even being in the ballpark just because of the sheer size of what micro strategy would be at that point? Say that one more time. Yeah. So like when we were dealing with GameStop, you're dealing with this really tiny company and, you know, just doesn't have the volume and is, you know, it's a small market cap. When you're looking at micro strategy and where this would be and call it a year and a half from now, you're kind of dealing with two different monsters. Like the one is a grown up and the other one's kind of a little kid. So can we just kind of copy and paste and say, hey, this multiple is possible? Or is it kind of a function of like how small,

Starting point is 00:57:04 GameStop was. No, I absolutely think this is possible. The reason being when, again, I don't like doing the direct comparison to GameStop, but it's a good perspective on what like a short squeeze might look like where you've got very low liquidity. But GameStop, when that trade kind of blew up, there were 70 million shares tradable. With Microstrategy, there's 17 million shares tradable. So it's much, much, much, much smaller.

Starting point is 00:57:31 Yeah, right, the market cap is bigger. But what is market cap? What is market cap? Market cap is synthetic. You're very, this is such a great point because you're talking about the margins, on the margins of what are being traded. That's what's driving the actual price. Right. Yeah, man, that's a great point.

Starting point is 00:57:48 So, so like market cap itself is synthetic. This is the same comparison of Samson Mao looking at a million dollar Bitcoin, right? Yeah. If everybody at the same time decides that they're not going to sell their Bitcoin for a million dollars, unless it's a million dollars, and there's no liquidity. left, the price of Bitcoin goes to a million. Well, and so anybody that's looking at this and listening to what you're saying, they're looking at the price of the BTC and the highest price you have here is 275K. And you just said Samson Miles Million.

Starting point is 00:58:17 Like, what does that do to this? Like, don't even say the number because we're getting into. It's crazy territory. People are going to think we're out of our minds, like some of these numbers. Totally out of our minds. Yeah. So, but I think the exercise is useful. I think the exercise of thinking about it is useful, right?

Starting point is 00:58:37 Like, I'm a reinsurance broker. I think about tail events. Like, what is happening like 0.001% return period. I love that. That's what I think about. And you have to consider it. Right? Like, if you're holding an asset and you're, and like you said, if you're going to hold it forever,

Starting point is 00:58:52 wouldn't you want to think about what it might be worth? Oh, my God. Right. Okay. Then you zoom out. Let's compare the market cap to any of these other companies. And you go back and you look at this multiple. assessment. And you actually realistically say, who can catch them? Who can catch

Starting point is 00:59:09 micro strategy? I don't know that anybody can at this point. Because I think if they try, they're just going to blow out the price. I don't think that you're going to get there. I think you've nailed it. So Berkshire has enough capital. They're probably never going to do it. Meta Zuckerberg has 61% voting rates. If you wanted to, he could. But to your point, like, they have enough quote unquote capital. But what if they actually would attempt to go after it, the price is going to run so aggressively that they don't have enough capital. Right. Like, it appears like they do based off of, like, if everything was stationary and not dynamically

Starting point is 00:59:45 moving with the new participant that enters this. Not to mention, we're not even talking about the qualitative side of, call it Apple or Berkshire, whoever, is now implementing a similar strategy as Michael. Like, what you're not accounting for is the third and fourth person that now has, the incentive to also do it because now there's not one person doing it. There's multiple people doing it. This is the biggest game theory situation I've ever come across. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you 100%. It's filled my brain for the last 24 months. And full disclosure, I don't think I explained it at the beginning. I made this strategy in February of 2023.

Starting point is 01:00:27 And I have more than multiple handfuls of leaps on this. And I was, developing that strategy over time, recognizing what was kind of on the horizon and where this could potentially go. So like this, this is my strategy since early 2023, and it's starting to play out and it's pretty insane. I can only imagine. I can only imagine. So what are the walks with your wife like? I'm sure I would, I'm sure I would have a different perspective than she would. I got one other thing. Let's get out of this because you told me that you were a punner. I quickly want to cover this because I find this type of stuff. I find elite athletes and people that are just able to perform at just pinnacle levels. You told me the length of your longest

Starting point is 01:01:20 kick. Tell me this. This doesn't even sound believable. Yeah, yeah. So I was a punter. I had a 75-yard punt. This was in college. We went three and 33 in college. So we went two years. In the game. In the gamer practice. No, no.

Starting point is 01:01:36 No, no. So in my four years in college, we won three games and we lost 33 games. So we went defeated two years in a row. So I got a lot of work. You know, I was on the field quite a bit. But yeah, had a 75-yard punt. They called it, you know, the punt heard around the world. I posted it on Twitter.

Starting point is 01:01:54 Wow. Yeah. Dude, that's great. Out of the back of the end zone, I was like my heels on the back of the end zone and flipped the field. I think we downed him on like the 10 or the 15. So did you have a massive tailwind behind you? Like, give us the environmental setup.

Starting point is 01:02:11 What's going on? Yeah, the environment. It was warm. It was Southern California. It was on turf. I just absolutely blasted this punt. It definitely rolled. Definitely rolled a little bit.

Starting point is 01:02:22 But it went over the guy's head and then just kept going. Wow. I think it was probably, from the line of scrimmage, it was probably 50 in the air, maybe 55. Yeah. And then got a material roll. Yeah. That is awesome. It changed the game.

Starting point is 01:02:37 We won that game. That was my senior year. Wow. That was the one game we won my senior year. And we turned the field and scored a touchdown right after that. Good for you, man. That's awesome. All right.

Starting point is 01:02:49 Hey, we're going to wrap things up. If people want to learn more about you, tell us what you got going on. Tell us where they can follow you. Yeah, so we are going to be available on all streaming services here shortly. Lookup Quant Bros. Me and my buddy Ryan are researching these types of trades and transactions, thinking about different perspectives on the market, using game theory, thinking high level, thinking really down in the nitty gritty, and, you know, hoping to talk to interesting people that think differently and think about the markets. I love it. And I love the engagement that you guys were giving me. on Twitter. It was really fun, the back and forth. And I, you know what, I really look forward to continuing to interact with you and seeing your success. We have links to all this in the show notes.

Starting point is 01:03:38 So go check it out. Jeff, what a pleasure. Great analysis. That was really fun. Thanks for making time. Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for having me, Preston. Appreciate it. If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use. Just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I'd love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable, if you can leave a review, we would really appreciate that. And it's something that helps others find the interview in the search algorithm. So anything you can do to help out with a review, we would just greatly appreciate. And with that,

Starting point is 01:04:16 thanks for listening, and I'll catch you again next week. Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow Bitcoin Fundamentals on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To access our show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only, before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC175: MicroStrategy Deep Dive w/ Jeff Walton (Bitcoin Podcast)

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