We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC184: Q2 Macro w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey, everyone, welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast. On today's show, I have the brilliant Luke Roman to discuss the big-picture economic outlook for the rest of the year. We'll dive into the Fed Treasury cap on the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury yield, potential housing inflation changes, and a significant backlog in transmission interconnections. We'll also touch on key commodities, the Japanese treasury market, and how these factors could impact Bitcoin moving forward. All right, so let's jump right to it. And here's my interview with the thoughtful, Mr. Luke Roman. Celebrating 10 years, you are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish.

Starting point is 00:00:58 Hey, everyone, welcome to the show. I'm here with the one and only, Luke Roman. Luke, welcome back. Great to be back, my friend. How are you? Doing great, doing great. I want to start off where we always start off, which is kind of your overall big picture. I don't think too much has changed since the last time we talked, because when we talked last, you were suggesting that maybe by early summer that they were going to have to really kind of devalue the dollar, and that was going to be the big play to kind of keep liquidity in the system. I don't think, because I read your weekly reports, I don't think too much has changed from that thesis. I'm just kind of curious if you have anything that's additive or if I am off base, let me know. I think we so. I think we

Starting point is 00:01:38 saw it still, I think you're going to have to continue to add dollar liquidity. I think as you know, as we've been writing for probably a couple quarters now that I'm not looking for some big devaluation, but rather orderly weakness really in the dollar. And maybe we've started to see it. We saw in April, I guess it was the second week at April, we had a really bad 10-year auction and the 10-year yield got pretty sloppy, 475 up near 48. And I believe, if I recall correctly, because I was just writing about it recently, it was like April 15th or so. And we're now, you know, in the ensuing month, we saw the DXY index from the high to the low, moved down about 2.2 or 2.4%, which doesn't sound like a lot, but in the dollar, that is significant. That is a significant increase. That is a significant

Starting point is 00:02:32 increase in overall liquidity. And so we've seen that. The dollars kind of bounced off the lows a little, you know, 104 flat. Maybe it traded under 104 for a cup of coffee. But I think that's going to be continued. Ultimately, the problem is global central banks aren't buying enough treasuries. The supply of treasuries is growing exponentially. And, you know, we're seeing the QRA, the quarterly refunding announcement, I think was another sort of another turn of the cards, right? Another flip of the cards in terms of this trend, which is to say, last November, we needed dollar liquidity. Yellen moved issuance, surprised people to the front end, basically tapped the reverse repo in a way where the effects of what she did matched QE to a T.

Starting point is 00:03:21 But it wasn't QE. The purists, I'll tell you it wasn't QE. I'm kind of like Tommy Lee Jones and the fugitive where like when Richard Kimball's point my own gun at me, I don't care, right? I don't care of what you call it. Stocks up, Bitcoin up, you know, gold up, since they did it. Liquidity was injected. Same thing with this May, QRA, she did not move any issuance to the front end, but the Fed did cut long-term issuance. Right. QT, if you look at these two together, as we increasingly should, the Fed and Treasury, the Treasury cut long-term issuance, in November and the Fed cut long-term issuance in May. And so I think it's a nod toward this view of they're going to continue supplying

Starting point is 00:04:07 whatever dollar liquidity is needed to keep the Treasury market functioning to keep rates at politically and economically sustainable and palatable levels. And so I don't think a whole lot's changed on that front. It's sort of steady as she goes, if you will. I briefly brought up the Treasury chart there and I also have a dollar chart that I might bring up here. when you're looking at the treasury, the bond yield curve of the treasury market here, let me bring it back up again. I'm just, I'm wondering how high are they going to let yields go?

Starting point is 00:04:36 How far are they going to let it sell off before they just cannot let it sell off any further? And so here's the chart again for people that are curious that are maybe watching this on video. Are we looking at this 5% level kind of really being the threshold that they just cannot allow it to go back through where it, you know, it looked like the sell, off kind of peaked in October of 2023. And I'm just, I'm looking at that level and I'm saying to myself, I just don't think that they can afford to allow it to sell off beyond that threshold going into the summer. I'm curious if you would agree with that. I do agree with that.

Starting point is 00:05:12 And I think there is a ace to be made that that number moves down over time, which I think makes, you know, as you can see in that chart, right? So we saw the April peak and we saw, you know, that was right around the time when we saw seven Fed governors jawbone the dollar down and then yellowed followed up on November 1 with what she did, which I just described. But now we fast forward and we have sort of similar action. If you go to this latest peak at whatever, yeah, there it is. In yield. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:05:41 In yield. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah, there's a. We can see sort of the, what I was just describing there. We've seen. So there's a case to be made that the red line of five. maybe coming down over time.

Starting point is 00:05:57 Yeah. Is it coming down that fast? I don't know. Probably not. I would say, I would agree with your view that five is a red line. It's probably pretty safe to say. The only way they don't let that yield go higher really plays into the thesis that you've been saying for a very long time, which is they have to weaken the dollar in order for

Starting point is 00:06:16 that to not make a new high because the rest of the world has to sell their treasuries in order to defend their currencies. And I'm going to pull up the dollar chart here while we have this. This sell-off that you're talking about is right here in April in the DXY. And you can see for a month and a half now, the dollar has weakened, which has, you know, helped keep the yields in the treasury market where they're at and not putting in new highs with respect to the yield. So when I'm looking at this, I'm not seeing anything definitive that's showing a momentary

Starting point is 00:06:51 momentum shift or a change based off of the volatility. I mean, there's a lot of volatility in both of these charts. And so I guess for me, when I'm talking to an expert like yourself, I'm thinking, so why, what is different right now that you think that this trend is going to really, that the dollar is going to get weaker and that they're going to be able to cap the yields on treasuries? What is that key thing that you're seeing right now, that you're not seeing in the price action of these charts that you think is changing that. I think it's the prospective possible slash likely liquidity yet to come, right? So that's what we have to watch for is when you see these news stories go by,

Starting point is 00:07:33 they're not, and they have not, they're not going to say, we're doing this to cap yields. It's going to be every other excuse in the book. The purists are going to say it's not QE, blah, blah, they're not doing this to finance deficits, same thing they've been saying for 15 years. It's just happening a lot more frequently. I know it's a lot more urgent because of what we described before the fiscal situation and the lab central bank buying on net. What are those things as I look out over the next six months? I see a Freddie Mac guaranteeing second mortgages, which the comment period ends today. One point eight trillion? This is the one point eight trillion? As much as one point eight trillion,

Starting point is 00:08:16 and liquidity, right? So, when you hear, so Freddie Mac is one of the agency mortgage back, one of the mortgage guarantors. No, no, stay with me. Freddie Mac is a government mortgage company. Yeah, right? So what, I forget exactly, you know what they're called. We know what they do, right? It's the government. It's the government. So by way of background, about 21 days ago, 30 days ago, it was put up for comment on the Federal Register the idea, the proposal for Freddie Mac to guarantee second mortgages. When you hear Freddie Mac guarantee second mortgages, you should hear government guaranteeing consumer spending. When people take out a second mortgage, they tend to go on vacation by a car, put in a pool, put in a deck. It's a windfall. It's a

Starting point is 00:09:07 It's COVID stimmy 2.0. What was COVID stimmy 1.0? It was a government-backed consumer spending boom. It weakened the dollar. It was in liquidity. It's the same thing. Now, interestingly, people I've talked to said that, number one, almost no one's notice this. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote something about it and May 1. Their head tagline was what could possibly go wrong. And they're exactly right. And the people I've talked to said it's very unusual. This thing only had a 30-day comment period. It was like, here it is. Anyone have said? I put it up for a proposal. Second and second. Didn't you for objections? There was none. There was less than 200 people that viewed this file according to your report, correct?

Starting point is 00:09:52 Yeah, I think it was like 900 as of a week ago. It gets up to 1,300. So we're talking about something that could ostensibly inject hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity and ultimately trillions and of the consumer, especially if they do the same thing for Fannie Mae, and I don't know why they wouldn't eventually. And no one's paying attention to it. And so the comment period ends today. I don't know if that's a midnight or if it's already over. And so, okay, step one. That's, you know, this is when I say we have to watch for these liquidity injections. Okay, let's go to number two. Number two last weekend are articles about how the U.S. banks had successfully pushed back on regulatory reforms led by Jamie Diamond, J.P. Morgan. Well, that sounds good. And the article talked about

Starting point is 00:10:39 how banks were running the bank lobby, particularly in the financial market markets, were running advertisements, I believe during the Super Bowl, the article said, talking about how these regulatory reforms were bad for American growth. Okay? These are bad. Call your congressman. The regulatory reforms are essentially designed to turn the banks into monetary utilities to finance the government. Basically, treasury bonds are going to count against capital. Treasury bonds count against their capital ratios. Then when they buy treasury bonds, they have to not make a loan somewhere else. And this is vastly oversimplifying, but this is the key thrust of it. These banks are fighting these regulatory reforms so that the treasury bonds

Starting point is 00:11:24 do not count against capital, which means they can buy infinite amounts of treasury bonds. And if they got infinite amount of treasury bonds with no capital, that's QE through the banks, more liquidity. It's really good for growth. It's really good for nominal GDP. It's good for employment. And that's the sort of you have to understand what you're seeing and kind of translated. The banks aren't wrong. This would be bad for growth.

Starting point is 00:11:50 If these regulations, as they are written, stand, government keeps running deficits. Those deficits will crowd out private lending by the banks. The banks would buy the treasuries, risk adjusted. It's very attractive, blah, blah, blah, and they'll stop making loans to what the bank said would happen in the advertising, small businesses, industrial, commercial industrial loans, etc. And the economy will slow. They're right. So the choice is do that and work down inflation or suspend the regulations as it relates to Treasury. So treasuries do not crowd out the private sector when the banks buy them. And the government runs deficits. So the banks still make loans to the government by Treasury. And the banks still have the balance sheet room to make loans to the private sector, dollar liquidity, QE without calling it QE. So those are the next two things I'm watching for. And again, this is not catastrophe. This is not.

Starting point is 00:12:42 It just is what it is. This is how when governments have a fiscal problem, they don't just go, oh, I give up. We're going to cut entitlements and defense by the amounts we need to cut them so that we can, it's not what they do, especially not in the geopolitical environment we're in. And so what we're seeing is just this steady, creeping, changing of the rules, moving of the goalposts, not QE, dollar. And let me tell you, you tell certain people on Wall Street that they are financing the deficit, they will lose their minds. And maybe technically they're not because they're going through the primary dealers.

Starting point is 00:13:18 And as I asked someone the other day, okay, yes, we're not a banana republic. This is not a banana republic move because they're going through the primary dealers. But answer me this. We know the primary dealers are backed by the government. They're too big to fail, right? Yes. Okay. So if a government-backed institution is the intermediary to shoot between the Fed and the government,

Starting point is 00:13:40 that's semantics. It's semantics. Here's where I would push back on the Wall Street person that says that they're not, you know, doing that. There's already a massive divide between boomers and younger generations, right? Massive divide. When we look at what we're talking about, we're effectively talking about a $1.8 trillion stimulus to who, a person that owns a house already.

Starting point is 00:14:05 Free and clear. Yes. Right? Yeah. If you don't own a house, do you get to participate in this $1.8 trillion stimulus that potentially is going to happen? Of course not. Right. No, not to your parents die.

Starting point is 00:14:19 Yeah. So when you pull back the thread and you look at who is this actually impacting inside of society, and you say, how is it benefiting them? Who is it hurting? Who's at the disadvantage of these policies that are being rolled out? And this isn't a banana republic. Well, actually, it is. It is.

Starting point is 00:14:38 This is total market manipulation where you're choosing winners and losers. And what's fascinating to me is the same set of people continue to be the winners on these decisions, these policy decisions as they continue to roll them out. And so the more that they double down on the manipulation of the markets, the more that they're just ticking off in creating social unrest with a really interesting demographic, which is everybody that's young, because of these decisions that they're making. And it's, we can get caught up in all the terminology and all the hoopla and describe how the banks are doing this and they're doing that. But at the end of the day, like the end user, the person that's being impacted in these

Starting point is 00:15:18 decisions are the people that own the equity or they own nothing. And if you own nothing, you're going to even own less than the nothing. you already have because anything that's being printed is being jammed into the hands of the people that actually hold the equity. And that divide and that that obliteration of the middle class just continues to accelerate. It's totally crazy. But curious if you have any additive sorry to go up on Atlanta. Because the, you know, if the real reason we're doing this is because we're running these big deficits. That's, that's right. So, but then you look at why are we running these big deficits, it's entitlements. So there's three things we spend our money on that matter.

Starting point is 00:15:58 There's, we bring in $4.8 trillion in tax receipts, roughly 4.6, I think, last year. We're going to spend $3.2 trillion this year on entitlements, health and human services and social security. So it's Medicare, Medicaid, and that primarily goes to the boomers and the sound generation. So about 70% of tax receipts is going to entitlements. The next, the biggest line item is, of course, interest expense. Which is only going up? Which is going up. And that's about a trillion two on a gross basis, trillion one trillion two on a gross basis, certainly pro forma. Which is more than military spending. Oh, it's 50% more than military spending. I know by the way, every hegemon who's debt

Starting point is 00:16:39 service has gone over its defense spending doesn't stay hegemonic for very long. Separate discussion. Which is a massive footstop. It's a very, yeah, it's a very big thing. But so this 1.2 train, who's the biggest buyers of who've been the biggest buyers of treasuries over the last 10 years? The biggest marginal buyer, other than the Fed and the banks, has been the boomers, right? It's been U.S. retail, particularly since they began raising interest rates. So they're getting more, the boomers are also getting more interest, too. And then we've got defense that call it $900 billion.

Starting point is 00:17:11 The point here is that the reason we have to do this in terms of this liquidity injection to finance these deficits, which are heavily driven by money that's ending up in the boomers hands to pay for services that the boomers are ultimately consuming, but the boomers own the bonds. And so who's really losing in all of this, the boomers, right? So basically, there's two ways you could structure this. I've got to pay this, this entitlement. I can do two things. I can tax, I can be overt about it. I can put it up for a vote, which will never pass. Well, it might pass now, actually, but forever it wouldn't pass, right? When you look at the demographics the boomers are not going to vote for this, but now they're not the biggest generation anymore.

Starting point is 00:17:54 They might pass. But I can put up for a vote like we would do in a democracy, or I could just do it the easier way the governments always do. And here, raise rates, hey, boomers, you can get four or five percent. Oh, great. I'm going to have four, five percent. All right. Jack inflation to A.

Starting point is 00:18:13 And like, these boomers are going to sell their bond funds. Like, what do you know my dad last fall was like, when's my bond fund going to start going back up? it just goes down every year. I'm like, yeah. I said, it's probably going to stop going down on a nominal basis. Now comes the fun part where it goes from buying you,

Starting point is 00:18:30 you know, a house to a cottage to a tent. And that's how the boomers will pay for their own entitlements. And the collateral damage to that is what you talked about, is the people who don't own houses, the people who don't own assets. And I think we're watching all of this happen. I think we're watching markets recognize,

Starting point is 00:18:50 this, start to recognize this in real time. When you look at me, which is the $130 trillion bond market, recognizing it's the sucker at the card table. I mean, if you said, Luke, what is one of the surest signs of where the bubble is throughout your career? I've been doing this almost 30 years. Every time retail and banks have been, like, flooding into something, it's usually a sign that's, that's the bubble.

Starting point is 00:19:14 Guess where retail and banks have been flooding into for the last three to five years? Treasury bonds. long-term treasury bonds are the bubble. And if long-term treasury bonds are the bubble, and as you just showed, five percent's the rate, they're not going to let it go over, then we should see what we've been seeing in markets,

Starting point is 00:19:29 which is S&P over long bond, boom, NASDAQ over long bond, boom, gold over long bond, boom, Bitcoin over long bond, boom. Everything over long bond takes off. And because there's a reflexivity, markets are forward-looking. They're not going to go, oh, rates are at five, sell.

Starting point is 00:19:47 No, they're starting to go, oh, rates are at five. Here comes the next application of sugar that's sweet, sweet liquidity from Powell or Yellen or whoever is going to generate it, but they're not going to eat less because rates are at five. And if they're not going to eat less because rates are at five, then the right thing to do is sell long bonds and buy stuff that goes up when they have to apply the latest round of liquidity. Something that's desirable and scarce. That's exactly right. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Starting point is 00:24:10 slash WSB. Go to Shopify.com slash WSB. That's Shopify. dot com slash WSB. All right. Back to the show. You had a comment that you think that they're going to remove,

Starting point is 00:24:28 potentially remove shelter from the CPI index. Were you serious about this? It was, that was more tongue-in-cheek, more than anything else, in terms of their inability to get housing down. It was probably too cynical, but maybe not as cynical as it would have been five years ago.

Starting point is 00:24:44 I read it that way. I read it as you being a little cynical. This was a really interesting comment. And I would love to get into this, especially because I think it has ties to Bitcoin and AI. You said there's currently a backlog and transmission interconnections of 2,600 gigawatts. That is larger than the installed capacity of all power plants currently operating in the United States. What are you talking about here?

Starting point is 00:25:08 So one of my biggest investments or one of my bigger investments personally is a private equity investment in an electrical infrastructure equipment company. And one of the executives of that company here in Rust Belt USA sent out that update after being at a trade show. And what I'm saying is that the amount of requested, permitted grid build out basically, right? is bigger than the entire installed base of current generation in the United States. And so when I see people by short copper, I'm like, good luck. Good luck. I have fun storm in the castle, right, from Princess Bride. And that's not to say it can't go down, but like there is such a gross mismatch

Starting point is 00:25:57 between the stated policies of our country and basically every country, right, which is we're going to electrify everything. and the available capacity today, and then the prospective capacity when you look at, all right, how are we doing on copper supply? How are we doing with aluminum? How are we doing with the industrial production capacity to make this stuff? Like the execs at this private electrical infrastructure company, they think they've got 10 to 20 years of open field running, like just as much business as they can do. And so when you then translate that to things like AI, and we're starting to see this a little bit in the headlines is the bottlenecks energy, the bottlenecks copper.

Starting point is 00:26:43 The bottleneck is all this stuff. So it's a very, it introduces this really interesting potential paradox, which is for the year in my entire professional lives, you roll out a new technology, it's disinflationary, it's a massive productivity enhancement, and it's deflationary. For the first time that I can recall in my career, this new technology is so powerful. that the bottleneck are these industrial components and the raw commodities like copper and uranium and the industrial components and infrastructure to make this stuff, which introduces this really interesting paradox, which is for the first time in our lives, technology, the latest technology productivity miracle might be inflationary, not disinflationary, because then when you

Starting point is 00:27:31 call up a chart, you know, they call copper, you know, the metal, with a PhD in economics for a reason. The correlation between GDP and electrical consumption is like nearly perfect. And electricity doesn't move without copper. So when copper prices start going up a lot, you can run a correlation with copper with inflation expectations in the U.S. Copper with inflation break evens. AI is going to make rates go up because they're short the copper and the electrical infrastructure

Starting point is 00:28:02 and energy. It's going to be. So that's, and you would think it's completely the eye. opposite. So I think that maybe, or excuse me, gigawatt comment really was like sometimes you just hear these comments that just smack you across the face. The last time I recall hearing one like that was we used to cover, in a former life, we used to cover a

Starting point is 00:28:22 coal mining company called Joy Global. They did draglines and I forget what the other kind of giant coal mining machinery was. But these are like, at the time, they were like $20 to $100 million a rattle machines, huge, huge metal machines. And we went and met with them in like 2002 or 2003 or something. And they're like, our order book is extended out like years. The Chinese are buying everything we can make. I'm like, okay.

Starting point is 00:28:50 And the stock just went like the next six, seven years. Well, that's the last time I remember hearing something like this with that gigawatt comment. Like there's two choices. We don't have the grid to do what we want to do with electrification. whole stop. And so then your answers are, do we not do it? Or do we do industrial policy and the Fed cap yields ultimately one way or another to do it?

Starting point is 00:29:17 And you see in science, it's the latter. Is AI the thing that's driving this massive increase in energy? It's a part of it. It's a big part of it. But it's, I mean, that's still early days. I think it's more just the data centers. It's the data centers. It's the, you know, it's the, the, the, the, the, the, the,

Starting point is 00:29:36 EVs, like even the small amount of EVs. People, again, these, Duneberg did a great piece about a year ago where he said these, the average transformer that we use and sort of, you know, and I apologize to any, any people who really understand the electrical grid stuff because I'm not that guy. I know like not even enough to be dangerous. I'm just dangerous. So I don't know what size of transformer this is. Whatever size you use, you kind of see on the polls that sort of for like a neighbor.

Starting point is 00:30:06 or whatever. At any rate, Dumberg pointed out that these transformers are designed to run on a cycle. So they're supposed to last 30 years. And the way they last 30 years is during peak hours, like you having a grid, right? Max power use, they get really hot. And then at night, when use is much lower, they cool down. And so they cycle down, they cool down. And it's that cooling period that allows them to last 30 years. Well, what Dumber pointed out was that does running hot. Well, yeah, when does everybody plug in their cars at night when we never used this stuff before. Okay, that takes the temperature of these things and then it runs them hot 24-7. What happens to the useful life of a transformer? How far does it fall from 30 years driven by just a token amount, you know,

Starting point is 00:30:54 not nowhere near our goals for EV penetration, but just once you hit sort of some threshold on EB penetration, how far does it go from 30 years? It goes to three years. They cut the useful life of Transformers by 90% by plugging in your cars at night. Really? And I run this by, you know, these friends of mine at this electrical and they're like, yeah, this. Really? That's insane.

Starting point is 00:31:17 So there's a degree of reflexivity in this that Wall Street is not thinking about. Wow. They are just not thinking about it. The average investor is not. Well, let's just plug it all in, AI, cars, electrification. No, no, no. There's an order of operations, fellas. and it all runs through copper.

Starting point is 00:31:37 It's all got to go through copper. Then it's got to go through the U.S. industrial base and electrical infrastructure and aluminum. And like copper is probably not pricing the right frigging zip code if we want to achieve what we want to achieve. And again, that's fine. That implies some massive secular investment shifts in terms of, look, if copper's the bottleneck for AI, coppers an AI play, baby. If the price of copper is, you know, going to 10 from five, like it's not like you're not going to buy the copper.

Starting point is 00:32:14 And so, you know, people say, why is China buying up all this copper? And why is China buying up all this nickel? Why is China buying up all these metals? They're getting ready for war, maybe. Or more likely in my opinion. Data centers. They know, like, if you knew something,

Starting point is 00:32:29 if you didn't have to market to market and China doesn't, for two years. If you knew in two years copper is going to be 15 and today it's five, how much copper do you about if you don't have to market to market? Because maybe it goes to four first. And of course, the American way of doing it is that, well, I'm not going to buy it if it's at five, because it might go to four or 350 before it goes to 15 because we all have to mark our books to market monthly or quarterly. And China's like, okay, I'll take it a five. And if it goes to four, I'll buy more. It goes to 350. I'll buy more. And like, I don't know why these people keep selling me all this stuff because it's going to be 15 in two years or three

Starting point is 00:33:03 years if they look at their own plans for EV. And the 15 is a random number. Maybe it's eight. Maybe it's nine. Maybe it's 10. Maybe it's 20. I don't know. But it's higher. Like it's it is so obviously higher barring some sort of catastrophic or some sort of productivity. Right. We we have some hey, we have a way to not you know, we can do this wirelessly. We can transmit electricity wirelessly and we don't need the cover. Okay, that changes everything. But like the people that are building the grid, if we have this and we're going to use it, you probably ought to inform them because they got 2,600 gigawatts of sort of stuff to build, which is bigger the entire grid. And no one's let them know, like, hey, don't worry about the wire yet,

Starting point is 00:33:46 because we can do it wirelessly. Right now, unless it's classified, it doesn't exist. Just for folks listening, three tickers for companies that have a market capitalization that deal in copper in excess of a billion, you got FCX, I-E and B-V-N. That first one, FCX, Freeport. This is a $67 billion company. I haven't dug into any of those tickers. I just did a quick Google search and just throwing out a couple names of companies that deal in copper. So is that how you would play this, Luke? I'm assuming you would buy the companies that are mining it, or are you like actually going into the futures market and trying to own copper? How do you play this? For me, and I can't make individual securities recommendations, but from a trade structure

Starting point is 00:34:36 standpoint, if I was an average investor, yeah, I wouldn't get involved in the futures. That's a tricky game that's better served for professionals given the leverage involved. I would be more inclined to own copper producing companies with good balance sheets. You know, low debt to cap because it is, I don't think it's going to be a cyclical business for a few years, but it is in the long run a cyclical business. Yeah, that to me is, I think, the safest and best way to play for most people. But I would think if the dollar does weaken like we talked about earlier, these are going to rip, I would think, yeah.

Starting point is 00:35:08 Yeah, yeah. How about on the uranium front? Because you had quite a bit that you were talking with respect to that as well. And this is, again, another energy-centric type position. based on the increasing expectation for energy demands all around the world. I also read that Japan was starting up one of their nuclear reactors. What are some of your thoughts on this? I've not dug in as deep to it other than tangentially, but to me, I look around and I see

Starting point is 00:35:34 a lot of countries coming to the recognition that there's short electricity relative to their plans and goals, and that nuclear is the best way to implement large amounts of of base load capacity, and the supply side of it, again, by what I can tell, is also relatively tight. You saw last week, the U.S. government is basic, not even basically, they just implemented in the aftermath of sanctioning Russian uranium. They implemented a program where they're basically going to spend $3.4 billion to sort of buy up uranium and try to stimulate the domestic uranium industry, which is fine. It's the right thing to do, it's a good strategy, but that yields conclusions, which is that's industrial policy.

Starting point is 00:36:24 The American government is selling treasuries to buy uranium. Why wouldn't I sell treasuries to buy uranium? Why should many investors sell treasury to buy uranium? I think you should. I think the outlook for uranium is very good. I look at, I think it was Amazon a few months ago, I think dropped several hundred million dollars to buy a nuclear power plant for themselves to help run. So we've got this technology company with all this amazing, you know, they run web services, they've got all of this tech, and they're buying a nuclear power plant. Why? I'll tell you why, because they see what I was just talking about in terms of the mismatch between interconnection applications and the lead times and the existing capacity. And so

Starting point is 00:37:08 they're dropping several hundred million dollars on a nuclear power plant because they think it's getting to the point where it's not what's the cost, it's what's the availability. You know, what's the value of Amazon if they don't have enough electricity? I don't know what it is, but it's hundreds of billions of dollars less in market cap. So who cares? Drop up several hundred million dollars on a new power plant. Make sure your uptime doesn't go down as a result of your electricity hookup. Microsoft has talked about buying nuclear power plants for their AI type stuff.

Starting point is 00:37:41 So I think you're going to see more of this, which again, breeds this interesting question, which is if I take a look at the multiples on copper and uranium and electrical infrastructure and I contrast it with the multiple on eight, true AI stocks. And if the former, if the latter, if the AI stocks don't hit their goals without the former, then the multiples should probably at least be a little closer together on the stocks and the earnings multiples, right? So I'm not saying they should trade it up, you know, some insane high multiple, but they probably should get a little bit of a pickup from being stocks that the AI stocks can't live without.

Starting point is 00:38:23 That's how I'm thinking about at the moment. I think it's kind of interesting. I've got a chart. I've got to bring up here. This is such a bloodbath. Look at this. Look at this Whopper. Japanese bond yield curve, Luke.

Starting point is 00:38:37 I mean, this is crazy. This selloff is totally insane. Like, we're back to yields in Japan that were, during the great financial crisis. And I mean, it just, it looks like it is just going to continue to fall apart. So when I think about where this is in relation to all the other yields around the world, this really kind of seems to be the canary in the coal mine. And I'm curious if you would agree with that with respect to just there is a brisk change playing out in fixed income. Do you have any other thoughts or like opinions when you're looking at that?

Starting point is 00:39:15 this, and I can also show the Japanese yen, which we're seeing against the dollar at levels that it hasn't hit since 1990, which I also think is incredible. What are your thoughts, Luke, when you think about Japan and some of these charts? I think it is a Camarion the coal mine. Japan is one of the world's biggest creditors, right? They have been running surpluses against everybody for virtually everybody. They've been running surpluses against the West, certainly against the United States, certainly, for, I don't know, 60 years. And what do they do with those surpluses? They reinvest them into American assets.

Starting point is 00:39:57 So ultimately, we can see that those yields and we can then game theory or game out what the possible options are for them. Right. So that goes up. That puts pressure on everything that was pressure on in Japan. What does Japan want to do? They've got three trillion dollars in dollars denominated assets sitting in America. They can say, listen, we're going to finance our deficit to defend our currency for, you know, we're going to sell 5% of that every year. We're going to sell 10% of that every year. So we'll sell 300 billion dollars worth of dollar assets a year for the next 10 years. And it could probably go longer than. take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why Vanta is a game changer. Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer

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Starting point is 00:44:15 He's just like, just help a brother out would basically be my strategy. And it seems like that's the strategy that they're taking. Is that it or? Well, that goes right back to our initial discussion, right? Which is, that's not QE. Those are just swap lines. They have to be bought back. But if the alternative was them selling treasuries, what are those swap lines?

Starting point is 00:44:37 Financing U.S. deficits, right? Financing net U.S. because otherwise, Yellen would have had to sell her two trillion. The Fed would have had to sell theirs. And Japan's been going, you know what, you take these. I need the dollars. And they would have been, and so the punchline is, is the treasury yield would start to look like that. You know, that would be, you know, that's what it would start.

Starting point is 00:44:57 That the 10 year treasury would start to look like that. And we can see that. If you chart, you know, it's a two-axis chart, so take it with a grain of salt, but you run the yen against the 10-year treasury. You know, so the weaker the yen gets, the higher, you know, the higher the dollar yen goes, the weak of the end gets, the higher the 10-year treasury goes for the last five years. It's like a very tight correlation. But, Luke, in all of this, just so people can understand, like, so what's the impact when they open these swap lines and they allow this to take place? Japan benefits before the United States benefits. But if the U.S. didn't open these swap lines, we would have total dysfunction in the treasury market and everything would go chaotic globally.

Starting point is 00:45:43 So it's kind of like you and I are in line to go on a ride or something like that. And I put you in front of me, even though it doesn't benefit me for you to go first. But if I don't go first, we basically both die or we both fall apart. So, like, we're here helping out, like, all these countries around the world by opening these swap lines, just so we can keep the dollar stable and normally functioning at the expense of every U.S. citizen and their purchasing power and their ability to buy equity around the world because they've basically given that liquidity to somebody else first. Is this a correct description? Generally, yeah. And it speaks to when you're highly levered, there typically aren't

Starting point is 00:46:26 linear, gentle, soft landing outcomes. They get very, very binary, right? So, okay, we don't open the swap lines. The Japanese sell treasuries. The yield goes up. The dollar goes up. As the dollar goes up, global growth slows. As global growth slows and treasury yields go up, the amount of global selling of treasuries accelerates. The net effective supply of treasuries accelerates. Yellen plus everybody of the whole world, right? So Yellen sells two trillion. The Fed sells, whatever, they're still selling. And the world sells, the world can sell a trillion a year for the next eight years. Central banks can sell a trillion a year for the next three and a half, four years. So, okay, and we know that that market's not very liquid. It's certainly not that liquid because we've

Starting point is 00:47:12 seen it dysfunction three times in the last two and a half years. So we go into a death spiral globally, right? Because, oh, by the way, treasuries are the collateral underpinning the whole system. And we saw started to see the impact of that last spring. It wasn't a banking crisis last spring. That was a treasury problem. The collateral underpinning those banks had fallen too far. And so the Fed wrote the collateral up via BTF swaps to keep those banks in a decent position. That's option one. That's extreme option one. We started to see us go into that in 3Q23 when we saw the long term treasury market fall 20% a quarter. Option number two is not like, well, let's just do Goldilocks. Option number two is, okay, do the swap lines, do whatever liquidity you need to do

Starting point is 00:47:57 to keep treasury yields from going too high to keep the dollar stable to moving down and to kind of keep. But the release valve then is S&P up versus, you know, like this versus the long bond, NASDAQ, spiking versus a long bond, gold spiking versus alarm bond, Bitcoin spiking versus a long bond. Those are the two out. It's fire. It's ice or fire. That's it. There's not like, hey, can we make like a nice warm tea out of the ice and fire. It's ice or fire until you write the debt down significantly. That's, and we've seen ourselves going back and forth. And sometimes we spend a little time between the two, but it's not like, hey, we're going to spend the next two years stuffing a nice cup of tea blended of ice and fire. It's going to ice fire, ice fire, ice fire.

Starting point is 00:48:41 I don't think that even writing it down solves the issue at hand, which is that you have productivity through about to be AI and what that's going to do. And you're trying to measure all of this with a fractional reserve system that has to keep expanding. And so I just don't see them writing, quote unquote, writing it down being anything other than yet another bandaid on a wound that is bleeding out aggressively. You have to get to some type of sound money in order to have the quote unquote, write down in a way that the world can move forward in a way that incentivizes cooperation as opposed to incentivizing everybody at each other's throats. No, that's exactly right.

Starting point is 00:49:25 And it's, as you know, our friend Jeff Booth wrote the great book, Price of Tomorrow. And that's absolutely, that's absolutely, and that's something, again, Wall Street by and large is not paying a lot of attention to, which is. I don't think Wall Street understands that. that thesis. It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on is not understanding. Yes.

Starting point is 00:49:48 Which is to say, a debt-backed system, a debt-based system is fundamentally incompatible with a deflationary technology like A.S. People aren't getting that yet, setting aside how AI might actually inflate commodities, like we just said, set that aside as a trigger of inflation. Let's say AI arrives too fast. or just at a reasonable pace. It doesn't arrive. It arrives too fast relative to the pace not needed to do this.

Starting point is 00:50:17 You're going to create wage deflation, right? There was a great paper on humanoid AI robotics, right? And the paper on it a couple weeks ago, we wrote about it, and it's something that, again, Jeff Booth introduced me to as a concept about a year ago. They think AI humanoid robots could send the median wage. in the world down to a dollar an hour by 2034. Let's say they're wrong. It's only $10 an hour by 2034.

Starting point is 00:50:49 Still. Who pays the consumer loans, right? So the wage, the wage level is going to drop. Pretty much every consumer loan out there will default. Okay, are they going to let the banks blow up? We know they're not going to do that. What are they going to do?

Starting point is 00:51:03 They're going to print the money to save the banks. Because guess what the banks are going to sell to get liquidity as their consumer loans default from this deflationary wage? the $4.2 trillion in treasuries and mortgage backs they own as high quality liquid assets, just like they did last spring for Silicon Valley and signature bank. Well, that's not good because now it's a treasury market problem again. And we know they're not going to, so AI means the end point of AI to your point in the presence of a debt back system means central banks are going to have to fully reserve all the debt.

Starting point is 00:51:41 or the substantial majority of the debt. That's where AI leads us. And I don't think that's understood yet. And so the way I've been positioning for it is keep my own balance sheet load, do not take on consumer debt I don't need. And from an investing standpoint, understand that neutral reserve assets will outperform everything else as the deflation of technology forces central bankers over time

Starting point is 00:52:10 an accelerating pace to fully reserve everything all the debt and the price level will adjust and like that's there's like an easy way to do this in a hard way but it ends up the same way either way and and this this part is not understood but when i see all the stuff about AI and it's almost i don't know if they're just not thinking that far ahead or if it's one of these things where like it's the boogeyman in the closet like you can't like if i worked in a big wall street firm you can't do that the consumer loan guys will come over and kick your head in right what are you talking about Stop. I don't, so I can. When I'm looking at this and I'm looking at it picking up and accelerating and who knows what

Starting point is 00:52:46 that timeline is and they're needing to be some type of buyer for all of this issuance that we know is coming, that has to come. I think you and I have talked about this very briefly, Luke, about stable coins, effectively being the transmission mechanism for them to have a buyer for all of this garbage. And short, it's going to have to be short duration garbage. I was blown away when I saw the former Speaker of the House, ran as a vice president. You saw this clip as well. I can see you're nodding your head. Paul Ryan talking about how important stable coins are moving forward and basically

Starting point is 00:53:21 literally getting into this argument of them being buyers of treasuries. And when I watched this clip, I was like, oh my God, they, meaning Washington, have finally figured out what's happening here and like where this is all going. And I was taken aback by all of this because in my mind, they are totally missing like how this transmission mechanism is going to take place for the buyer of all this garbage. And now it seems like they're figuring it out. It looks like they're implementing policy to embrace this. And you and I have had this opinion for a while. Nobody needs this more than Washington, these stable coins. It's just taking them a long time to figure out. argue that they, all these politicians on Capitol Hill, have started to actually figure this out,

Starting point is 00:54:13 or is that Paul Ryan clip just kind of like a one-off thing? I think the Paul Ryan is an interesting because I think it's a signpost on timing. In other words, that they're talking about it now. Because over the last call it six months or so, I've had a couple of conversations where it was made apparent to me. I love how you're trying to like make sure you don't docks anybody. Go ahead. Go ahead. I will not interrupt you, Lou.

Starting point is 00:54:43 Go ahead. You get it. In the aftermath of World War II, think about where we were on whatever, May 10th, 1945. Europe flattened. Russia flattened. Japan flattened. England deindustrialized.

Starting point is 00:55:03 The world was looking at a, period. Now, from a classical economics standpoint, what that means is the capital of the world was destroyed. It was gone. The retained earnings of 2,000 years gone. Obliterated. Obliterate. That leads one of two paths. We spend the next 60, 40 years, two generations, maybe 60 years, slowly rebuilding the capital obliterated over 200 to 2,000 years. is a capital obliterated, little by little, right? So we eat, hand to mouth, and we try to save a little bit. We take the retained earnings, we put it over here in a pile and we hold it there someday.

Starting point is 00:55:45 And then we add the next year and the next year, and someday we have enough to rebuild the roads. And then someday we have enough to, once we rebuild the roads to rebuild this and rebuild that. Okay. That's option one. Option two is you move to a system that you know you'll have to move back away from at some point, where debt becomes an. asset. I will go into debt to rebuild you. You will hold the debt as your asset. And by doing this,

Starting point is 00:56:12 we can pull forward the 40 years of rebuilding to a much shorter period of time. In reality, is when we rebuilt it over 10 years, probably much longer than 40 years, right? It might take you 100 years to rebuild from that using the first way. But we've always known as a problem. Triffin's dilemma told us it becomes a problem at some point. You cannot. And this is the first time in human history as far as I'm aware of where the debt, where it became so widespread that the debt became the asset of another in such a large way. Ultimately, it's my understanding that it's always been known that at some point you've got to go back to a more equity-based system, something that is not a debt-based system. The fact that you're seeing people like Paul Ryan

Starting point is 00:56:57 say these things, the fact that you're seeing central banks by gold, not treasuries, for going on 10 years now is a hugely important message. When central banks buy gold and not treasuries in the context of what this 80-year process of rebuilding from the 1913 to 1945 period, that's telling you the central bank saying that system's done. We are starting the transition to a neutral-based system. And so when I see Paul Ryan say things like that, it's really interesting to me. When I see Janet Yellen say, for my entire career, she's a 76-year-old woman.

Starting point is 00:57:40 For my entire career, I thought that if someone wanted to send you cheap goods, you should send them a thank you note. I would never again say send China a thank you note. She's throwing 40 years of economic orthodoxy in the trash. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan getting in front of the Brookings Institute and saying the last 40 years of U.S. economic policy has been wrong. So there's this building theme of a move toward this equity-based system. Now, what technically what no one's talking about yet, I suspect you probably have, but not a lot of people is if you stable coins, you're not going to be putting 10-year treasury bonds and 30-year mortgages in these things because of the duration mismatched.

Starting point is 00:58:19 Yeah. All T-bills. And so if- Which works for both parties, which works for both parties. It works for the US government? Yeah. It works for everyone. Yeah. It works for everyone except the retail we've plugged with all these long-term bonds. Remember what I said before? Oh, well, yeah. They're a long-term treasury budget. If we use some version of stable coins backed by T-bills to sort of redo this, the release valve is inflation. It's going to go bonkers. You're going to have like very high rates of inflation, which is fine. You're going to have very high rates of nominal growth. In fact, I suspect it will be spun as preparing the dollar and the U.S. for growth or something like that, right? That it's who can be opposed to growth?

Starting point is 00:59:01 Well, don't tell the boomers who are about to go from buying them a house to buying them a tent. Like, it's fine. Who is buying that garbage? Who's buying anything that's long duration bonds of any country right now? Who's the buyer of all that? I think it's, you know, pension funds, pension funds, duration matching. Like, if you can, yes, is the short answer. But look, the dog that doesn't bark in that whole equation is if that market is so deep

Starting point is 00:59:28 and liquid relative to the size of our deficits, why isn't Yellen terming it out? And the answer is either A, she's stupid, she's not, or B, the market's not that deep and liquid out that far relative to the size of our deficits. You know, they can place a certain amount of it with organic buyers of it. Well, they could just roll it, too. Couldn't they just gobble it up and then reissue it as short duration? Well, they could, but that's, you know, I think that's what you do that. They've talked about doing it earlier this year.

Starting point is 00:59:55 You know, when we talk about those dollar liquidity injections, Waller at the Fed came out, I think on March 1 and said, you know what? We have historically had a quarter of our holdings of our balance sheet in T-bills, and it's like 3% amount. We want to move back towards a historical amount. Great. And think about it. I'm trying to break it down.

Starting point is 01:00:18 So the shorter the duration of paper you issue, the more it's like money printing. I hold my money in cash, right? Well, what's cash? Cash or T bills? Cash Bills. If the government is running massive deficits and issuing it more and more in T bills, the government is more and more printing straight cash to finance its deficits. It's inflationary overtime, very inflationary.

Starting point is 01:00:40 Which is, again, that's in the cake. Like if we didn't want this, we should have done a lot of the dumb stuff we did for the last 20, 30, 40 years. I tell people all the time, it's already all been printed. It's all out there. They just got to convert the duration into something short duration and then have a bunch of stable coin people buy it up over the next 10 years. No, it's, yeah, it's the $130 trillion going, wait a second.

Starting point is 01:01:02 I'm the sucker at the card table. Oh, God, the $130 billion bond market. And you can see it happening in markets in front of us. And it's going to continue to happen because, again, to believe it isn't going to happen requires either a productivity miracle or a belief that the United States government is tomorrow going to cut entitlements in defense by 25 to 30 percent, meaning, you know, immediately, permanently, and then stand aside as those cuts lead to a financial crisis and a depression worse than the great financial crisis. There's zero chance that's going to happen.

Starting point is 01:01:35 Last question I got for you is, what are you hearing on Bitcoin from Wall Street? I'm here and just demand is really good. I'm here. Demand is really good. I'm here. Demands really. good. I'm hearing, I mean, you can see that in some of the filings that we saw last week. If everything we have said is even directionally true, hang on. We know, yeah, we know, right? Like, it is, the common knowledge game is such that it is, I think everybody knows that everybody knows that sort of the, the cleanest, one of the cleanest, easiest ways to play on his own Bitcoin, one of the most leverage ways to play, what's happening is Bitcoin.

Starting point is 01:02:15 I think there is a growing recognition of that on Wall Street. It's not even $2 trillion, Luke. No, I know. It's, I mean, yeah, it's what? $2 trillion $4.4.5, something like that. Yeah. Yeah, it's still very early days, in my opinion. I could talk to you all day, brother.

Starting point is 01:02:36 I really could. I love these chats. Likewise was. Yeah. Thanks for making time and coming on. For people that are listening, I'm a massive fan of Luke's report that he writes. I am a subscriber of his report. I read it every Friday as soon as it hits my inbox religiously.

Starting point is 01:02:57 And I just, you know, I love having you on, Luke. And anything else that you want to highlight to the audience? No, I appreciate you having me on. And I always enjoy our conversations immensely as well. Likewise, sir. All right. Well, thanks for joining me, Luke. Thanks, Jeremy on. If you guys enjoyed this conversation, be sure to follow the show on whatever podcast application you use.

Starting point is 01:03:22 Just search for We Study Billionaires. The Bitcoin-specific shows come out every Wednesday, and I'd love to have you as a regular listener. If you enjoyed the show or you learned something new or you found it valuable, if you can leave a review, we would really appreciate that. And it's something that helps others find the interview in the search algorithm. So anything you can do to help out with a review, we would just greatly appreciate. And with that, thanks for listening. And I'll catch you again next week.

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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC184: Q2 Macro w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast)

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