We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC213: 4Q 2024 Bitcoin Mastermind w/ Joe Carlasare, Jeff Ross, American HODL (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey everyone, welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast. Well, it's that time of the quarter where I bring back the Bitcoin Mastermind Group with Joe Carlos Sari on legal, Jeff Ross on macro, and American Hoddle on comedy and truth bombs. We cover all the big stories happening in Bitcoin here at the close of 2024 and some of our projections for the coming year. And let me tell you, this group is very bullish right now.

Starting point is 00:00:26 So if you're looking for a fun and enlightening chat, sit back and enjoy this year ends close out with the guys. Celebrating 10 years. You are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. Hey, everyone, welcome to the show. We have it. It's back, the mastermind discussion.

Starting point is 00:00:59 Fourth quarter, 2024. We got American Hoddle. We got Jeff Ross. We got Joe Carlosari here. Gentlemen, welcome back to the mastermind conversation. It is good to be back, Preston. It is good to be back. It's the best conversation of the quarter.

Starting point is 00:01:14 I look forward to it every time we do this. Yeah, nothing's going on, right? It's pretty boring. Nothing at all. Nothing to talk about. So we're going to have to just find our way through this one with something. We'll start a fight for some reason, I think. This is where we have to start.

Starting point is 00:01:26 The third quarter, we released it on one October. I looked at the price on one October. It was at 60,000. You guys, all three of you were super bullish. You guys said that going into the fourth quarter and the 2025. things we're going to get really spicy. The price is going to run. And here we are knocking on 100K's door. By the time this airs, we could be over 100K for all I know. Guys, where do we go from here? You know, online, you hear a lot of people saying, this looks like a top. I'm smirking, but I want

Starting point is 00:01:57 to hear your opinions before I give my opinion. What's your opinion here? We're in December, 2024, getting ready for the big 2025. What kind of advice do you have for people that are saying these things online. So I just want to say, I called it. I called it. I was like, we're going to 100K by Thanksgiving and Bitcoin got me so good because it went to 99, 860 and then I had to eat a pumpkin pie. We were $140 way for me not having to eat a disgusting pumpkin pie. And I did have to eat one. And it was just as gross as I thought it would be. It tastes like the earth. It tastes like it comes from the dirt. I don't know why anyone enjoys them. Okay.

Starting point is 00:02:38 This is one of my favorite buys. It pains me to hear you talk about it this way. Oh, my God, Hottle. So, yeah, I confidently made that prediction because I could just kind of get gut feel because I've been around for so long that I knew we were going to get going pretty shortly here. And then, you know, when Trump won the election, obviously, we broke their all-time highs that night. And it was interesting.

Starting point is 00:02:58 You know, I'm sure you guys had the same experience, but I was watching some of the prediction markets and I was watching the Bitcoin price in addition to watching the election. Me and Joe were actually there together on election night. doing a live stream. And we were watching the prediction markets in real time. And we were like, oh, it's over. Like, we basically called it because the Bitcoin price was up. The prediction market is up. Like everything was saying Trump was going to win hours before he actually won. So Bitcoin priced it in. And then we broke through all-time highs, obviously. And then we just started ripping after that because it's a very bullish development. The Red Wave is what Michael

Starting point is 00:03:29 Saylor has been calling it. Trump clearly has a mandate from the country. He's much more amenable to Bitcoin than the last administration, which was openly. hostile to Bitcoin for basically no reason. So yeah, it's all systems go from here. And I think like, we're at the start of a bull market that's going to last all throughout 2025. And for me, my diminished returns narrative is still in play. I think we're going to, there's going to be a lot of selling in the like, let's say between 150 to 2.25 range in there. And so that'll be a hard range to get through. But once we break through it, we're going to break through it with force. And I think the back half of the year probably, I don't know, September, our country.

Starting point is 00:04:07 October, November, December. So basically a year from now is going to be just parabolic, hyperbolic in nature. And we're going to see some really crazy and shocking Bitcoin prices. So these people, you know, calling the top right now at 100,000, you're just laughing out. No, it's silly. They're tourists, right? It's like, I was listening to a British gentleman on a podcast today, be like, I love it when people think it's going higher because then I sell and then my exit liquidity and blah, blah, blah. And he was bragging about getting a four X. He was like, yeah, I made full X from 20 to 80K, you know, whatever. And it's like, so he was out. That's why. Yeah, it's like, you know, a lot of us here are up 400x plus. So I don't know why we like 4X is cute.

Starting point is 00:04:51 Good for you. But it's not that hard to make 4X in Bitcoin. Jeff. Yeah. So we're definitely not at the top. We're just getting started. And you know, like you said at the last quarterly update. I think we recorded that on towards the end of September, like the 23rd or so, you know, and we talked about like that's where, you know, in September, I cast off the Dr. Bull crab and went all in Dr. Bull. Totally agree with Hotall. We've had lots of conversations about this, the same kind of time frame.

Starting point is 00:05:19 I think we're generally in a bull market right now. I do think all dips in general, again, not individual investment advice ever, but I do think we're in the phase where all dips are for buying. And so one thing I like to remind people who are new to Bitcoin and maybe have only been around for a couple of years. Dips are really common and they're really violent in a bull market. So don't be surprised when the price suddenly jacks down 20 or 30 percent or so. A lot of people panic in those moments and they think that it's over it. And you do not want to hit the sell button. This is not the time to hit the sell button. I will say that I think

Starting point is 00:05:52 another thing we did last time and Joe jumped in here too is we called out the recessionistas and said they're just flat out wrong. We are not heading into a recession. There are still people that I listen to every day macro thinkers who have subscriptions to their products who are still calling for a recession. They still keep talking about how we're right on the cusp of a recession. And oh my gosh, you better move to cash and long bonds because we're going to have a deflationary bust any day now. And they're wrong and they've been wrong for two years and they're going on three years of being wrong. And they're going to be wrong throughout most of 2025, I think. I don't know. The end of 25, it's possible. Who knows what the liquidity cycle is going to be like.

Starting point is 00:06:29 so we just can't predict that far ahead. But all systems are a goal right now. I'm very bullish. I think any pullbacks are for buying. And we're going to get, and Joe is going to get to wear his 100K hat. That's my promise. That's my promise,

Starting point is 00:06:42 is you will get to wear your hat. In fact, I think I said you're going to, I said, Hoddle is going to have to eat a pumpkin pie. And Joe, I promised you that you'll get to wear your hat in 2025. So those are my two predictions. His pumpkin pie. I mean, you were, you were a hundred bucks away, man.

Starting point is 00:06:56 Bro, it was 140 bucks away. Oh, my gosh. Well, it's always funny, right? Like, Bitcoin peaked out around, like, $96,000 last time, 96,000, like, 420 or whatever. And it peaks right before 100, right? The market just puts messes bus. It just tries to pick numbers that are, you know, a meme in themselves, which is hilarious. Joe, you think it's going higher, too?

Starting point is 00:07:20 You agree with these guys? For sure. I mean, to me, I think everything's going higher because I think there are still too many people defensive the position. I mean, I'm looking at the equity market. Equity markets, you know, on the verge of, I think, a big breakout. You're above 6,000. We've held above 6,000. People are kind of, they held that range, and then you take a move, right? You want to make sure it bases there. And I don't know, I see a lot of constructive charts. And the thing that makes me sort of a little bit not nervous at all, but it's sort of just telling you where this is going is you see

Starting point is 00:07:48 dinosaur chains and coins that haven't ran in years that will not be named that are like going off. They're popping off, right? That just shows you risk-on environment at just those things that are moving quickly. And I think Bitcoin's, when it gets going, it's really going to get going. And I still believe that people are far too bearish on where Bitcoin is going this cycle. And to be clear, I said publicly in the last episode, I'll say it again, I don't think this is going to be the traditional boom-bust, 80% decline. I think you'll absolutely see drawdowns. You'll see painful ones for all of us that if they'll hold through. But I actually think that we've entered a new era. That's just my view.

Starting point is 00:08:23 That's interesting. Let's pull on that thread. So explain what you mean by that. And then I want to throw it over to these other guys to get their two cents. And while you're doing that, Joe, while you're doing that, I'm just going to throw up the NASDAQ chart for people to look at based on your last comment. But go ahead and or rate your point here. Yeah. I mean, I think we're entering a new era for the standpoint of you've gotten Wall Street involved in such a big way.

Starting point is 00:08:43 I think that will only continue. I think investors are, I hear, I was feeling calls today from financial advisors that are trying to build out my elastic. allocations and they're seeking guidance on that and what makes sense. I think that as you go forward, we're going to be more and more tied to what Jeff alluded to, which was the global macro liquidity cycle, right? So if you're going to try and pick tops and bottoms in Bitcoin, you might as well try to pick tops and bottoms of the stock market. I think that's the route this is going for a variety different reasons. And it's not a coincidence. And I think people always forget this. They always say, oh, it's a four-year cycle's program. Bitcoin peaked almost to the week with many other assets.

Starting point is 00:09:21 like in November of 2021. It peaked alongside express statements from the Federal Reserve that was going to begin drawing down its balance sheet, that we were going to be entering a rate hiking cycle, it peaked alongside the NASDAQ, all the other investments. So it's not in a bubble. So even back as early as 2021, I would argue, it was still primarily driven by macroeconomic cycles.

Starting point is 00:09:40 And when did it bottom? It bottomed in Q4 of 2022 when people were freaking out when the long bond, you know, was put in a short-term bottom, at least, when you had effectively, you know, the stock market in free fall, the S&P around, I believe, 3,600, if memory serves correctly, the NASDAQ. So all these asset glasses didn't just randomly peak, or peek in and trough according to Bitcoin cycle. They're driven by macro factors, and I think it won't be any different this time. To Jeff's point, right, if you're trying to pick a top in Bitcoin, you might as well be trying

Starting point is 00:10:07 to pick a top in the economy, which for, you know, for the record, I don't think is any, we're anywhere near that, especially with the new administration coming in. Yeah, right. Yeah. What do you guys think? I always want to agree with this. I want to agree with it every cycle. I'm like, this is the last cycle. There's not going to be anymore. You know, whatever. But I think as a Bitcoin, I'm a little gun shy on agreeing.

Starting point is 00:10:27 There's just something in my gut that tells me prepare for a significant drawdown in Bitcoin. You know, prepare for an 80% crash. So yeah, I do agree that it does feel like a new paradigm. And in many ways, 100K feels like the halfway point between. I mean, if you're coming in and you're buying Bitcoin at 100K, right, you're a totally different buyer than the type of buyer. or you guys were like buying in the hundreds of dollar range, it's just been, Bitcoin has been significantly de-risk. And you're coming in with, you know, the approval of the, or the president-elect,

Starting point is 00:10:58 soon to be sitting U.S. president, you're coming in with the approval of Wall Street, Black Rock, nation states are, there's a big rumor that someone in the Gulf is going to announce a large Bitcoin buy soon, and that's going to trigger a nation-state stacking. There's a talk of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve for America. And, I mean, it's pretty crazy. Like, if you fast forward from where we were 10 years ago when we first started our Bitcoin journey to now. People are not talking about like, should America buy Bitcoin? They're talking about how many Bitcoin should America buy? Should we buy one million, two million, three million, right?

Starting point is 00:11:27 Like, that's a crazy paradigm shift. And so I think there's still a 500 X or a thousand X left on the table. And if you're coming in now, yeah, you got to, your Bitcoin is more expensive. You're going to get less Bitcoin. But your path there, I think, is a lot more secured than it was 10 years ago. And so for me, yeah, it's a new era. But like Sailor has been saying, Volatility is vitality, right? So, like, Bitcoin is volatile in nature. There are no cash flows in Bitcoin. And so it's going to trade based on human emotion.

Starting point is 00:11:56 And humans are fickle. And there's a lot of new humans here that are going to be investing their money in Bitcoin. And price comes from the margin. And they're going to be selling and buying like crazy and trying to trade this thing. And not everybody is a seasoned hodler who's already mentally preparing themselves for a significant drawdown. So when I think through these things, I think, yeah, there's a lot of animal spirits in the economy that it could cause these significant corrections, you know.

Starting point is 00:12:17 But there's also a lot of big money coming and like show is saying. So hard to say. Our first six years in this space, I would say is about six years. The number one thing I would hear back from anybody that I talked to this about was the government's going to shut it down. And that was the end of the analysis. That was the end of the debate. They didn't want to hear anything else because that was their card that they were playing that no matter what you say, the government's going to shut it down. There's no way they're ever going to give up the printing press and therefore it's dead.

Starting point is 00:12:45 And now look at the conversations we're having. Is Saudi Arabia going to announce that they want to stack, you know, half a million coins or whatever it is. I'd have no idea what the arguments are. The rumor mill is the word I'm looking for on some of this stuff. But the fact of the matter is, now we're not talking about that. In fact, we're talking about the exact opposite of that, which is how much are the government going to buy? And I mean, when you say it's de-risk, it's a footstomp moment. It is de-risk. These are real conversations. and it's just totally different than what it was back when it was, you know, $300 a coin. This is different.

Starting point is 00:13:22 Absolutely. Yeah. And so does that mean that we're in a different paradigm where Bitcoin is less volatile? Against what? You know, against Fiat, I don't, I think it's going to get crazier against, you know, corn or oil, then, yeah, it's going to get less volatile. Yeah. Jeff.

Starting point is 00:13:38 So I agree with Joe on 99% of what we talk about, but this is one of the 1% where I disagree. I think we absolutely still have boom bust cycles, mainly because, so when animal spirits get going that Hoddle alluded to, and we start getting to new all-time highs, what do people do? They leverage, they double down, triple down, 10x down, 100x down. They do really, really stupid things, right? Liquidity, when it starts to flow, people start thinking you can't ever lose. We're going to see crypto, unfortunately, just go to the moon also, which just drives me nuts. and you know, Trump is super pro-crypto too.

Starting point is 00:14:16 So we have to deal with all this garbage for another four years at least. That's a different story. But Bitcoin itself, I think what's going to happen is it's going to be piled on leverage. We're going to watch the leverage build and we're going to watch people try to short it and get their faces melted off. And then at some point, we're going to get to some peak that it's just going to be too much leverage. There's no more buyers anymore. And I still think we do. I think it depends what it does, but I still think like a 70% crash is very possible with Bitcoin at the end of the cycle.

Starting point is 00:14:42 So just to be clear, Bitcoin will always have boom-bust cycles. That's not what I was talking about. I'm talking about the four-year cycle in particular, because the four-year cycle is a different story. You know, the NASDAQ has boom-bust cycles, right? The NASDAQ has had multiple 25% corrections over the last 10 years. Everybody sees the straight line vertically, but if you've actually been a NASDAQ investor, you know it's not a straight line. There's December 2018, there was 2022, right, where things sold off hard.

Starting point is 00:15:10 You'll absolutely see corrections and the corrections in Bitcoin will be more pronounced. But I was referring to is really the traditional four-year cycle, which I think is becoming more and more muted, meaning it having less of effect for two reasons. Number one, the new supply of coins that are coming into the market is very different. The having is having a very different approach. Number two, you've got more institutional liquidity, which are long-term buyers. They're not the speculators and short-term thinkers. You will have absolute leverage, right?

Starting point is 00:15:36 that increases. But from my standpoint here, what I think the message of the Bitcoin market is to show news is that every single correction we've had, significant correction, multi-year bear market corrections, they've been less and less severe. The last one, I correct me wrong, Jeff, wasn't it down to like, you know, a 70% decline from peak to trough where, you know, comparatively we had 80 or 90% declines? So you're seeing that, you're seeing sort of diminishing on the upside, diminishing on the downside, which to me is, I think, more of the same. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised that we saw 50% correction this time around as opposed to a 60 or 70%. Yeah, okay.

Starting point is 00:16:09 So we're pretty much on the same page. I was trying to disagree with you about something, Joe. Sorry. No, no. I mean, look, what I think, what I'd be interested in hearing your take on is if you continue to agree that the ultimate pin in the balloon, hopping the leverage, will be driven by macro economic liquidity cycles, which I think maybe we don't agree on, but what are your thoughts on that?

Starting point is 00:16:28 Definitely. So that's the number one thing I watch every day is what's happening with the liquidity cycles, what's Global M2 doing? Is it generally expanding? And not only is it expanding, but I think what's important for people to understand is, is it moving from the government to the people, or is it moving from the people to the government?

Starting point is 00:16:47 And that's kind of a funny concept that a lot of people don't really get. But when the liquidity cycle starts to peak, what usually happens is we see loans start to dry up, we start to get Eurodollar shortages around the world, and the flow of money starts to flow back to the government side for a while. And that's what leads to these big deflationary busts. So that's the thing I watch like a hawk because you do not want to be levered long Bitcoin or especially levered long crypto nonsense at that point because you'll still get destroyed

Starting point is 00:17:17 and go down 80 to 99% at that point. I think those cycles will continue. By the way, a couple of things I think is I don't necessarily think that we're going to see the most liquidity from the United States this time around. I think we're in a pretty healthy spot, relatively speaking. China and Europe are just in the dump right now. It's a basket case. I mean, you look at some of their economic data.

Starting point is 00:17:41 I don't know how you can be bearished on the United States economy when you look at some of these other countries. Right. We look awesome, relatively speaking, despite what our cohorts, the recession used us have to say. But I think a ton of liquidity is going to come from China. And I think that's going to be a big driver. I think Asian liquidity will be a huge driver of the price of Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:17:58 over the coming 12 months. What do you think about the doge, the idea to cut some of this. Not the coin. Not the coin. What is that again? The Department of governmental efficiency. Yes, the Department of Governmental efficiency.

Starting point is 00:18:13 You know, there's Elon thinks he can cut magically $2 trillion from the debt. I want to see how that math works. What do you think? Do you think that's going to be sufficient liquidity tightening that's going to affect the economy, the real economy? So, well, I also want to hear what Preston sucks. Should we come back to Doge? I wanted to hear your name in the math.

Starting point is 00:18:31 macro situation. Oh, no, I totally agree. I just want, the only thing that I wanted to highlight, I had a gentleman on the show, I don't know, episode like 200 of the Bitcoin Fundamentals, Matthew Mazinskis. He is phenomenal at tracking the global flows of liquidity. And we'll throw a link in the show notes to some of his research and his website where he has all this stuff posted. I know I have global M2 chart that I've kind of pieced together on Trading View, but I did this

Starting point is 00:19:00 interview with him and some of the research and some of the ways that he goes about like calculating global liquidity is amazing and just an incredible resource. So I just want to point people towards that because I agree with you, Jeff and Joe, that's really kind of the main thing to focus on. And Joe, I also agree with you. I think these cycles are going to start looking a little bit different and this very systematic looking four year cycle is going to really start to look different kind of moving forward. I agree with you on that. I mean, how do you have a continued four-year cycle if you have the United States government buying Bitcoin at like some crazy clip? And then not only that, but you have all of the competitors to the United States government buying Bitcoin and all the allies to the United States government buying Bitcoin and all of the major corporations underneath the United States government buying Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:19:45 Like, I don't know, man. Joe's right on that. It does get hard to envision the traditional cycle continuing. It's just a different type of seller, different type of buyer. And to me, that's the biggest factor. Yeah, yeah. One thing I wanted to bring up just because people were asking about this on Noster, they're confused about because I keep talking about how we're starting to see this new uptrend in global M2 monetary supply right.

Starting point is 00:20:08 But recently, if people have been paying attention, it's actually been dipping and dipping hard. So I just want to explain that real quick. When people look at most of these metrics, what we're talking about is global liquidity priced in U.S. dollars. And so because we've had such incredible strength in the dollar, the Dixie, if you look at the chart, has basically just been going straight up since the end of September, early October. Because of that, because global liquidity, at least the charts I use, I use a very similar chart, I think, that you do press them. It makes it look like it's coming down because all of the

Starting point is 00:20:40 liquidity that other nation states are doing when it's priced in dollars, the dollar is rising faster than the amount of liquidity that they're adding. So that's, yeah, so that's a great chart. You can see while it's dipping below that. Once the dollar strength breaks, which I expect to happen, And hopefully pretty soon or at the very latest, probably by the end of December, early January, we should see that resume its uptrend in a hurry. And that will be a good thing for risk assets in general. All of these liquidity discussions have to go back to what breaks up your definition of liquidity because the single biggest driver of liquidity itself is financial markets.

Starting point is 00:21:12 And financial markets have been an absolute tear, which creates a virtuous cycle. And most liquidity measures, M2, M3, anyone you want to use, they will not include many financial assets, which serve as the backbone of liquidity. The fact that real estate's at an all time high, the fact that stocks are at an all time high, that is pro liquidity for marketplaces. And this is why most of these gauges are complete bunk, in my opinion. I like this counterpoint, Joe. I like this a lot.

Starting point is 00:21:36 No, I mean, look, so the way I think about it is like all these M2 gauges and everything's, what it's like trying to measure how big the sun is from looking at shadows on the air. You're basically seeing reflections and different, some window into what liquidity looks like, right? But we can't really measure direct liquidity because ultimately at the end of the day, liquidity is all about confidence. It's all about how many people are going to be lending, spurring marketplace, providing balance sheet capacity, providing loans to people, creating credit growth. And to just point, right, liquidity conditions can change overnight.

Starting point is 00:22:09 If there's a yen carry trade crisis, liquidity instantly freezes and it ceases. And that liquidity is gone. It's not in the marketplace. No one can get the bid. So to me, all the gauges are kind of, they're maybe helpful, but they have huge limitations. I love that counterpoint. Great point.

Starting point is 00:22:24 I mean, look at the liquidity of Bitcoin in Korea that just happened. Yeah. I was on the phone with a buddy trying to figure out how we can arm Korea. And by the time we figured it out, it was over. And we were like, okay. Can't arm Korea anymore. That's how Sam Bangman-Fried made his money, you know? Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

Starting point is 00:22:46 All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is. From June 1st through the 3rd, 2026, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its 18th year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world, many of them operating on the front lines of history. This is where you hear firsthand stories from people.

Starting point is 00:23:20 people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures. These aren't abstract ideas. These are tools real people are using right now. You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with. Over three days, you'll experience powerful mainstage talks, hands-on work, workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations

Starting point is 00:23:56 that continue long after the sessions end. And it's all happening in Oslo in June. If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person. Standard and patron passes are available at Osloof Freedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers. The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference. It's a place where ideas, meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it. If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately. How do we make AI useful in the real world? Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.

Starting point is 00:24:36 With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today. NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP, trusted by over 43,000 businesses. It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one. un-unified system. And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter. It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI-powered decisions with confidence. And now with the NetSuite AI connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data. This isn't some add-on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business. And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions,

Starting point is 00:25:17 NetSuite helps you stay ahead. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get their free business guide, Dymistifying AI at netsuite.com slash study. The guide is free to you at netsuite. com slash study. NetSuite.com slash study. When I started my own side business, it suddenly felt like I had to become 10 different people overnight wearing many different hats. Starting something from scratch can feel exciting, but also incredibly overwhelming and lonely. That's why having the right tools matters. For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e-commerce in the U.S. from brands just getting started to household names. It gives you everything you need in one place,

Starting point is 00:26:07 from inventory to payments to analytics. So you're not juggling a bunch of different platforms. You can build a beautiful online store with hundreds of ready-to-use templates, and Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions and even enhance your product photography. Plus, if you ever get stuck, they've got award-winning 24-7 customer support. Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing... Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at Shopify.com slash WSB. Go to Shopify.com slash WSB. That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right.

Starting point is 00:26:52 Back to the show. Okay. We were talking about Doge. Let's go back to that. And we're talking about Doge, the government efficiency, not the coin. I love how this branding is getting mixed up. I think it's hilarious. I find it's hilarious.

Starting point is 00:27:08 What did you say, Joe? purposely so. He's purposely being mixed up. Yeah, right. Elon has an ironic sense of humor, you know. All right. So where were we going with this? We were talking about like the impact of government spending.

Starting point is 00:27:23 And if they are actually able to cut the cost of things, like this is going to be challenging and kind of like very anti-Trump with respect to like how he's just going to make the markets rip, right? Like if you're cutting all these costs and you're not putting all that liquidity into the market, it's kind of contra to this broader theme of making, you know, the economy boom. So I think that was your point, right, Joe? Was that kind of what? Just frame it just a little bit more interesting. I think I want to add in and just get each one of your takes on this.

Starting point is 00:27:50 So I think it's fascinating. In four years from now, we're sitting at the end of the Trump administration. Has the national debt increased or decreased? That simple. Has it gone up? Yeah. Okay. And has it gone up at a higher rate than it did under the current administration?

Starting point is 00:28:04 I would sell. Yes. Yes. I don't know. I would just, my base case would be that it's just continuing on the trend that it's on right now. But I don't know. That's massive, right? Yeah, right.

Starting point is 00:28:13 That means higher each time, yeah. It's massive, right? I think nominal debt will be definitely higher than today, but I think debt to GDP might be lower. But that's just accounting for growth and productivity. Because I think we're going to have significant growth. I think they're going to juice the economy. And so that's good in a way.

Starting point is 00:28:33 So I think they're going to do, we're going to have higher inflation. We're going to have a lot of debt still, but a lot of economic growth, real growth. And I think that's kind of the philosophy that's sort of the right wing philosophy of can you grow out of your debt problem. I think they're going to try. And I think they might sort of succeed. Do they have Bitcoin on the balance sheet? Are we taking this into account?

Starting point is 00:28:55 That's what the things. Yeah. Go ahead, Jeff. I am so glad to be alive right now, right? This Doge thing, I keep telling people, like, I actually think they might do a lot of the stuff they're saying they're going to do. Elon Vivek and Trump, that threesome. I think they're going to just wipe the federal government out. Tons of agencies, I think they're going to go in and they're going to fire.

Starting point is 00:29:17 Some of this comes to. So, Jeff, some of this comes down to their capacity to actually do it. And, like, who actually holds that authority to exercise a lot of this? And I think a lot of it, yeah, go ahead, Joe. You probably understand this. No, no, absolutely. Like, look, I mean, half the things you're talking about cutting, they don't have authority to do. Right.

Starting point is 00:29:34 So it's like, so the government spends, you know, in a given year, six, six and a half trillion dollars on Medicare social security. Medicaid, right, interest on the debt. So these things, how are they going to cut these things? I mean, yes. I'm sorry? I agree with you. Most of those things are untouchable. Right.

Starting point is 00:29:49 So if you're untouchable, I mean, it's like, why do you rob a bank? Because that's where the money's at, right? If the money's in all these entitlements that are untouchable, how are you going to cut $2 trillion from the debt? Let me, let me just go real quick to clarify. I don't think they're going to be able to get that $2 trillion number that's thrown out there. I agree with you. I don't think they can touch Medicare, Medicaid, you know, the Social Security.

Starting point is 00:30:08 but I think they can touch some military and I think they will. And I think they can go into a lot of these agencies and a lot of this pork that's written into these bills that, you know, just get slipped into bills and this federal spending. I think they're going to wipe that out. And I think a lot of people are going to get canned. And I just want to say, I love it. That for the first time in my life, I'm 50, we've been talking about we just need a smaller government and no one has ever had the Kajonis to do it. And I think these guys do. And I think they're actually just going to be like, I don't care if you're mad.

Starting point is 00:30:38 But you guys lost, you're done, you know, go find a real productive job. I have friends who work in government. They're like, I think I'm going to get fired. And they basically admit, like, I don't really do anything. And they're kind of mad at Musk and they're mad at Trump. And I'm like, this is your chance to be a productive citizen and actually advanced society for the first times as an adult, you know? And so personally, I'm very excited about it. Could they make enough cuts that we actually have a recession because they drop, you know,

Starting point is 00:31:04 government productivity and unemployment low enough to cause a recession? I don't think so. And I do think at some point in 2025, the bond markets are going to seize up enough. There's going to be some sort of issue that will get the liquidity train back on board. And the Fed is going to pivot from QT or whatever they're doing right now, not QT, to actual QE. And that's going to start adding liquidity again. So that's what I think is going to happen. I'm sorry, I'm talking a lot, but I'll stop there. It's going to be very interesting, though, I think. I'll be just real quick. I'm interested in all your case because to me, the most interesting fire, The most interesting conflict that's going to come.

Starting point is 00:31:38 And potential termination will be this rift that's already brewing. And you can see it like a train ready to hit the mountain between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump. That is to me, it would be the most explosive battle of the first half of next year. And I think that's already festering with Powell's consistent comment that I'm not going anywhere. You're going to have to call me out of the building. Yeah, a couple thoughts here. So first of all, on the Doge, I don't think that it's going to be as violent as people believe it is. in terms of the cutting.

Starting point is 00:32:08 If they are able to do the cutting, I think Elon has already talked about doing things like, just paying people out their contracts and be like, okay, we're going to pay you out for the remainder of your term. And then the contract is null and void. Like, we're not going to continue it going forward.

Starting point is 00:32:20 So there is like a gentle way to do it without shock in the economy, which is, I think, the way it will be done if it does get done. To Preston's point about the balance sheet, like, do we put Bitcoin on the balance sheet? I mean,

Starting point is 00:32:30 if you want to talk about tackling the United States, you know, massive crippling debt, it's Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the answer to tackling. the U.S. is crippling debt problem, right? Bitcoin, technological innovation, cultural reformation, and, you know, sort of just governmental social change where we have a different culture in government around not wasting the taxpayers' money. You know, I mean, it's like we're always talking about,

Starting point is 00:32:52 you know, different group, different marginalized groups in America and how we need to have respect for them. And I agree with all that. But I think one of the most disrespected groups in America is the American net taxpayer. And if you're an American net taxpayer, which everybody on the call here is, you were just completely disrespected. Nobody's looking out for you. Nobody's making sure that your money is spent efficiently. And I think that Doge as just like sort of a cultural movement can actually like reinvigorate the American spirit of like, why are we wasting all of our money? We are the owners of this society. This is our collective money. And I don't think we have to just accept

Starting point is 00:33:23 rampant waste. Okay. And then to Joe's point about the showdown between Powell and Trump, that is absolutely coming. That is a unstoppable force meets an immovable object. and Trump is the unstoppable force and Powell is the immovable object. And we are going to watch fireworks there. And I think there's a real question here of like, who has power? Does the duly elected president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, have power? Is he the most powerful man in the country? Or is Jerome Powell the most powerful man in the country?

Starting point is 00:33:53 We are going to find out in short succession. I like that question. The one thing that I think is that everybody's seeing with the Doge thing right now is these These guys have the biggest megaphone in the world to point the public at all this egregious spending and this insanity that nobody else has ever had such a megaphone before. I'm looking at Elon Musk's Twitter right now. 206 million followers and he controls the platform. So if he wants to like really let something rip as far as like messaging goes, he can do it, right?

Starting point is 00:34:30 He owns it. When I look at these other people, I could look up what Trump says. I mean, it's massive. Let's see here. 100 million plus. Yeah, 95 million followers. So the thing that I think that these guys are going to do really well because nobody understands marketing and branding better than Elon.

Starting point is 00:34:47 So they're going to take the list of the most egregious things known demand that are being spent here in the U.S. They're going to highlight this. They're going to curate it. They're going to spin it and they're going to post it and they're going to shine a light on it like nobody's ever done before. And I think that's going to be the thing that's very different that then generates a conversation to then potentially influence the elected officials and get them on some type of drumbeat

Starting point is 00:35:12 to start affecting change. Will they? I don't know. But I think that that part of it is very different than anything we've seen from just like a messaging standpoint, a collective sequenced messaging standpoint that really get something out from like a branding and marketing standpoint from a governmental perspective. But we'll see what happens. I know one thing.

Starting point is 00:35:32 There's a lot of people that are excited and find it to be, you know, different than anything we've ever seen in the past. And I think that that's exciting. Joe, I want to talk to you about all this choke point two dot O stuff. So Nick Carter just posted a whopper of a thread on X. And basically the so what, it's a really long thread. There's a lot there. But the so what was I got three main points out of it.

Starting point is 00:35:57 Basically, they sent out in the 22 time frame. the FDIC issued these pause letters to all these banks that were engaging in any type of crypto-related activities, asking them to halt what they were doing. And they didn't really provide much rationale or reason as to why they were receiving these pause letters without like any type of explanation. They just said it was risky and that they should pause any type of activities. This obviously created, the second thing I would say is it created this a massive amount of debanking, stifling any type of innovation in any of this area with respect to digital assets in Bitcoin. Whether it's all the innovation is up for debate.

Starting point is 00:36:38 Well, yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if you're a minor and you're trying to go out there and you don't even have a bank, I just talked with Jack Mallor's last week and he was saying that he was debanked. He had two days to find a new bank through JP Morgan. I mean, there's strike.

Starting point is 00:36:55 So, I mean, it's just- A dozen clients that were knee-banked during the banked. the period. I mean, it was widespread, systematic, it was concerted. And I, unfortunately, because of the way a lot of things operate, cloak and dagger, I don't know if we'll ever, I know they're talking about hearings. I think Congressman French was talking about French Hill, excuse me, I was talking about investigations and congressional hearings. But, you know, in this stuff with deep state actors, right, you never really get to the bottom of who's pulling the strings in the various different three-letter agencies. So it's very frustrating. And

Starting point is 00:37:24 the only solace you can give people is that it's going to be a different environment under I think this administration for all digital assets. But that's not to say that people who played a hand in crushing certain aspects of an industry simply because they had animus to the type of technology or work they were doing should not be held accountable. I absolutely think they should and I hope they are. That's where I want to go. So do you think that it's possible that they're going to be able to be held accountable

Starting point is 00:37:49 or can they just kind of hide behind the ambiguity and everything else that was happening in the moment and they're never going to basically face any type of retribution for this insanity. And we all know who one of the key actors, Elizabeth Warren, was one of the key actors behind a lot of this that went down. And I mean, it was just egregious. Like the stuff with Silvergate, in my opinion, is crazy that they forced them into bankruptcy, even though that they were still liquid, that they weren't insolvent. Right. I mean, so to answer your question, what you generally need to hold people accountable for malicious prosecution or efforts that are abusive of their powers, you kind of need a whistleblower. You need principled people. And if you're

Starting point is 00:38:31 somebody listening to this podcast and you're principled and you have facts that show specific individuals were responsible and we're engaging in what I think we can now see in hindsight was a very coordinated systematic effort to enact detrimental effects on certain people. You should come forward. You should talk to a lawyer. You should talk to a whistleblower, a lawyer that can properly defend you, and you should investigate possibilities. Because in the United States of America, We shouldn't have government officials targeting individuals simply because they don't like the type of business they're engaging in. If they want to target them, they should do it overtly, they should do it publicly, they should issue statements, they should file litigation, right? Say what you will about the SEC.

Starting point is 00:39:10 The SEC took their views with respect to the industry and they tried to argue them in court and in some instances they were unsuccessful. That's the process. That's the way it's supposed to work. It's not supposed to work through closed, backroom, smoke-filled rooms, people deciding we're just going to call up. Joe Schmoe at the local bank and tell him don't do business with this actor. That, in my view, is un-American. And I think that people, you can't do that. You can't have that sort of widespread of a campaign without someone out there knowing this.

Starting point is 00:39:39 And the reason why I'm skeptical at the end of the day, people will be held the task is because we've had whistleblowers in the past. People like, you know, Edwards noted, right? And people should have been held responsible for the, you know, warrantless wiretaps of Americans and violations of the Constitution that were conducted en masse in the surveillance state years ago, they weren't, right? We never had people really held to account for that. And unfortunately, I think in this instance, I think it's probably more, your base case

Starting point is 00:40:06 should be something similar to happen. This will try to be swept under the rug. Maybe they'll have some one individual that comes forward with a tell-all, but there's never any real consequence for people that engaged in it. Maybe you'll have some curings and identify some new facts you didn't know. But, you know, the American consciousness is always thinking about the future. and it's very hard to get people to focus enough to go make people pay a consequence for wrongful acts in the past. All right.

Starting point is 00:40:29 Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why VANTA is a game changer. VANTA automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI-powered platform. So whether you're prepping for a SOC 2 or running an enterprise GRC program, VANTA keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving. Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, VANTA gives you continuous automation across

Starting point is 00:41:04 more than 35 security and privacy frameworks. Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vantza. That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth. If I were running a startup or scaling a team today, this is exactly the type of of platform I'd want in place. Get started at vanta.com slash billionaires. That's vanta.com slash billionaires. Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading, but haven't dared try? The futures market is more active now than ever before, and plus 500 futures is the perfect place to start. Plus 500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, the S&P 500, NASDAQ,

Starting point is 00:41:48 Bitcoin, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, 4x, crypto, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade from anywhere, right from your phone. Deposit with a minimum of $100 and experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for.

Starting point is 00:42:08 See a trading opportunity. You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open. Not sure if you're ready, not a problem. Plus 500 gives you an unlimited, risk-free demo account with charts and analytic tools for you to practice on. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit Plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500,

Starting point is 00:42:39 it's trading with a plus. Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high-yield savings accounts. Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit. Now, the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes thanks to the Fundrise income fund, which has more than $600 million invested in a 7.97% distribution rate. With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years. it fundrise.com slash WSB to invest in the Fundrise income fund in just minutes. The fund's total return in 2025 was 8%, and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%. Past performance

Starting point is 00:43:30 does not guarantee future results, current distribution rate as of 1231, 2025. Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. I want to throw it around to the group.

Starting point is 00:43:54 When we look at what's happening in the coming year, what is the number one thing that you think is a noteworthy highlight to bring to the audience's attention? I'm going to go. It looks like Hoddle might have something. I don't want to ask, yeah, go ahead. I was going to say, should we talk about probably the biggest, story in Bitcoin at the moment, which is MSTR. MSTR.

Starting point is 00:44:14 Oh, baby. I mean, MSTR is, it has sort of trans-morphed, for anybody who's not aware, obviously, it's like sort of trans-morphed into this absolute, you know, Bitcoin juggernaut that is able to issue these 0% convertible notes and, you know, hit the ATM, which means do share dilution, and use all of these levers they have available to them to accrete Bitcoin at basically no cost. And all of their debt is unencumbered. And you're looking at it, Saylor, like, relentlessly, like, just he's got a 21 billion

Starting point is 00:44:45 plan this year and a 21 billion plan next year. It seems like his plan is to run through it all by February or March, right? And so, I mean, this is just a crazy, I mean, you're talking about a corporate here who's going to have the same number of Bitcoin that the nation states are talking about a dock. Yeah. So you have corporation. Like, can you think the U.S. can even, I mean, what?

Starting point is 00:45:09 And the numbers that I've, that I've heard. for the U.S. is $1 million to $4 million, right? Bitcoin that they're going to acquire. If they go to $4 million, Bitcoin, like, I can't even imagine what the underlying price would go to for them to actually acquire $4 million. I don't even know that this number, I mean, you blow up all markets, I think, if they go after a number like that. Or am I just being hyperbolic?

Starting point is 00:45:31 No, I don't think you're being hyperbolic at all. I think if the United States government announces their intent to stack $4 million Bitcoin over some period of time, the big. Bitcoin price is going to go to $5 million, like in short succession. Yeah. And so, yeah, I mean, it's going to be very hard for them to get their hands on it. Luckily, they have the largest money printer on Earth. So if you have the biggest money printer on Earth, it's a little bit easier for you. But at some point, you know, you're going to run out of Bitcoin or the Bitcoin's going to be extremely expensive or both.

Starting point is 00:46:00 I mean, that's just assuming them buying it. I mean, it doesn't even talk to the knock on effect of other countries and other corporates that are then going to try to front run all of this. And the price, I think you blow up markets with a number that's that size. And I think that this is the thing that when you look at how much Bitcoin he's got, which is what, 402,000 Bitcoin now while we're recording this, I'm sure by the time this airs, it's going to be even more, can a corporate even catch him? If Microsoft or Apple or somebody tries to acquire a similar amount of Bitcoin, can they even catch him at this point? Because of how relentlessly, unreflexive or what's the word I'm looking for the Bitcoin price is?

Starting point is 00:46:44 No, I think it's going to be very difficult to catch him. But I do think there are going to be a lot of people that are going to copy his strategy. Do they get the same number of coins that he has? Probably not. But it seems as if this demand in the bond market for the volatility that this product brings is near infinite or certainly the ceiling on it is much higher than where we currently are. And so you're seeing like, you know, Mara just spun up.

Starting point is 00:47:09 up one and it was oversubscribed and then they spun up another one. It was oversubscribed. And you're going to see more MSTR style copycats, I think, who are going to, you know, similar scientific is a great example, or Genesis or Metaplanet. I mean, there are a lot of companies that are spinning up to do this trade essentially. And there's, I don't know, man. I mean, how much Bitcoin and aggregate are we going to have in the, in the U.S. public markets, you know, three million, four million, like, easy. I think at this price, and this is, if I'm on the controls of one of these companies, under 100,000, I would put this on as heavy as I could possibly do it. Like his actions over the, Michael's actions over the past month or two, I think are completely warranted

Starting point is 00:47:46 and very intelligent. I think once you get to a Bitcoin price, I've called 150,000 or 200,000 plus, I'm just a little bit more reserved in exercising this because I don't know if we go through another cycle and we get another 70% downturn. And then here you are buying and three or $400,000 coins only for the price to go back down to $100,000 a year and a half or two years from now. And hey, I'm with you guys. The price is always going to recover and you're always going to because there's no limit to the amount of Fiat that's going to be printed, right?

Starting point is 00:48:19 But from a timing standpoint and just putting yourself in a position where you're not dealing with that insanity of these really high buys, I think you scale back like what we've seen over the past couple months at a certain point. I'm curious if you agree with that. I think the opposite. So I think you press it. I don't do the metal as hard as you can because in a bear market, it might be harder to get your lenders to give you these same opportunities.

Starting point is 00:48:43 And so you got to make hay well, the sun shines here. And I think he's burning through his $42 billion plan so that he can get to a multi-hundred billion dollar plan, which he thinks he can capitalize on in the bull market. I also think that the nature of the debt is important. Everybody sort of misunderstands the MSTR story and they think the debt is somehow tied to the Bitcoin and that there could be liquidation. The debt is fully unencumbered. That is something that people need to rock.

Starting point is 00:49:06 And so as long as you can handle the interest payments on the debt, which I think right now the operating, yeah, the operating revenue from the actual software business, which everybody forgets about, but they're like the little engine that could. They're doing the hard work of servicing the multi-billions of debt, right? I think it's enough right now to cover the debt and probably will be into the future. So it's very difficult for me to see a significant bear case on MSTR. The best bear case I can come up with is that it goes to, 1X nav and functions essentially like a Bitcoin ETF.

Starting point is 00:49:35 What do you mean the interest on the convertibles? That's why I'm confused. Well, the past. Those are at zero. Those are not the new ones, the old ones. He has old ones that are at higher. But he's not, he has any signal that moved to the convertibles.

Starting point is 00:49:49 I mean, he's not issuing more debt by Bitcoin. He's issuing the convertibles, which is basically just, he's supplying synthetic call options to the market. Yeah. You're correct, Joe. And those are not a concern.

Starting point is 00:49:59 But I'm anticipating a future in which he does take interest on different things. Oh, you think you're going to issue more actual straight, you know, interest-bearing bonds in the market? He could. I mean, I don't know what his next. I think this $42 billion is mainly the 0% converts, but in the next offering, I don't know what the debt structure will look like. So I'm just anticipating, you know, potentially having more interest payments.

Starting point is 00:50:19 I mean, the fact that he's oversubscribed tells me that I don't think that there's interest coming back into the picture anytime soon. And even if there, even if there would be, I think he just adjust the convertibility strike into the common at a higher level and keeps the no interest involved in the issuance. But your point that he goes even harder is something I would have to like really sit down and think about because I don't know. I guess I've just been telling myself this what I said earlier. And then you kind of came back with an opposite opinion.

Starting point is 00:50:51 I need to sit down and think about that. I think he's going to go for 210 billion. That's what I think the next one is. So he's going to 210. What you're trying to do to Hoddle's point is you're trying to trigger. a critical mass. Yes. If the Bitcoin price really rips higher, significantly higher.

Starting point is 00:51:09 And we've talked about this for years, Kyle, so I'll just paraphrase our long discussion about this. Bitcoin price going higher makes it more attractive to institutional investors. Retail thinks about the price saying, I want the price lower, but bigger, more liquid, deep markets with a higher price actually makes it more attractive to other companies. And that's basically just about liquidity. It's just the liquidity picture. They want to be able to exit.

Starting point is 00:51:32 And if you can trigger a critical mass by pushing the price three or four of magnitudes higher, you know, moving from a one or two trillion dollar market to a five or six, seven trillion dollar market, it actually becomes more attractive for bigger players. Yeah. When Sailor is effectively doing that, he's saying, I am the buyer of last resort in these markets. And I will continue buying. I will buy every top. Like, you know, Preston, like his messaging is very much, I'm not being careful or calculated

Starting point is 00:51:57 with my buys. I'm buying every top forever. Yeah. Laura. Joe, I'm curious your thoughts on the nationalization risk at some point. I think that if that were to be the case, the United States of America would no longer be the United States of America. To me, the only impetus for making something that's private property for taking like

Starting point is 00:52:18 that in violation, I think of the Constitution, I think would be if there was some sort of extreme national emergency where he had already moved to a Bitcoin standard and there was a need by the government to seize those assets for national. security regions. I think we're a long way away from that. I think Bitcoin is way too small of a marketplace. I think from the stand. And everybody always throws up 61 or two and all these things, but you got to remember, there's scores of judges, jurists, legal scholars who have all said, you know, those orders that were passed down, those pieces of legislation, they are unconstitutional. That today's Supreme Court, which respects private property rights, which have far more of a check

Starting point is 00:52:55 on the government than courts of the past, would not allow that to stand. If somebody just said, or we're just confiscating all the Bitcoin. Aside from the fact that I think it's technologically possible, I mean, if you understand how Bitcoin operates, I think it's a bigger problem is just legally, I don't think that the Constitution would permit taking a private property in that circumstance without a serious, compelling state interest,

Starting point is 00:53:17 which I don't think we have. So my view is, I think this is the modern equivalent of government's going to shut it down. Now they say government's going to take it and seal it. And I just don't think it's with support in the law. I don't think we're anywhere near that right now. But let's say Bitcoin's at $5 million, $10 million a coin. Now all of a sudden that becomes a very real conversation, I would suspect.

Starting point is 00:53:38 But you disagree? The only reason the price level of Bitcoin doesn't matter for the taking. What matters is, is it an economic necessity for the government? Is it a wartime seizure, right? The time, I mean, so maybe that's your argument that at $5 million, will the government be required to seize all the Bitcoin to protect its national security interest. I don't see that. I think it's far more the opposite. I think the Bitcoin can go even higher than that without it being a compelling state interest to have to seize because unless the U.S.

Starting point is 00:54:07 dollar and the treasury market is no longer the preferred reserve asset of the world, then I think you have an argument if that truly is the state of affairs. But we are decades away from that. Minimum. I mean, I don't see how that could happen in any time in the near future. You'd have to have no, I agree. I don't think. The order is a magnitude higher. Yeah. Okay. Hottle. An important point here, just to piggyback on what Joe is saying, I agree with Joe entirely. You know, MSTR just went through their snapshot and they're, you know, about to be included in the NASDAQ, right? They're about to be included in the QS. And, you know, when that happens, you're going to have 4002,000 Bitcoin and then later a million Bitcoin or however much they get to be included in the NASDAQ.

Starting point is 00:54:47 And so indexers are going to win. And, you know, who are we indexing? I mean, that's America's 401Ks and pensions, et cetera. And so everyone is getting exposure to these mass cuts of Bitcoin. And so just having these large troves of Bitcoin within the United States public markets strengthens America's position against the rest of the world. And so you wouldn't want to kill that golden goose by doing something like a nationalization unless to Joe's point you were exceedingly desperate.

Starting point is 00:55:14 Jeff, let's go to you. What's the number one thing that you want to talk about coming into 2025? I'm still thinking about this. I'm still thinking about this. MSTR stuff, only because what I keep thinking about the, I don't think of the 60102. What I think about is the Hunt Brothers cornering silver back in the, in 1980 or whatever that was. And here's the scenario I can actually imagine is that, you know, say sailor gets up, they,

Starting point is 00:55:39 they get up to a million Bitcoin. And then, and the U.S. starts to try to accumulate this strategic, first of all, I think there's no way they get to four million. I think maybe they can target one million is sort of reasonable. And then other companies start pulling a sailor, right? And they all start following the Bitcoin on your balance sheet. And then what I could see is mass psychotic jealousy of the fact that sailor unfairly bought it while it was cheap and took advantage of the market participants.

Starting point is 00:56:07 And so having big bankers who now they can custody Bitcoin by that point, right? So they want Bitcoin. All these tech companies that want to have it on their balance sheet, but can only get, you know, hundreds of Bitcoins instead of. hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin because the price is getting so high in an act of jealous unified jealousy coming before Congress and saying we need to stop micro strategy from cornering the Bitcoin market. And that's it. I can actually imagine that even though it's totally ridiculous, but I could actually see that happening like 10 years from now.

Starting point is 00:56:39 But that's 10 years away. Is Jason leading this charge? Jason? Jason. Oh, you're on Noster. You're not seeing all this. I don't see that. Dude, you know, it's crazy too. I think this is a error in,

Starting point is 00:56:55 I don't know, like human thought here where everybody thinks it's Michael Saylor's Bitcoin. It's a collective trove of Bitcoin. It belongs to the MSTR shareholders. BlackRock is one of the large shareholders. And so like when Sailor is like, sailors buying all the Bitcoin, no,

Starting point is 00:57:11 no, the MSCR shareholders as a collective. I mean, it's basically, listen, MSTR is basically a group project speculative attack using a public company as the vehicle. That's what it is.

Starting point is 00:57:22 And it's crazy to watch it play out. And honestly, kudos to Sailor for figuring that out because he took two obvious ideas and combined them. And now we have like a game stop that never stops. It just squeezes the entire world until eventually it ends up as the Dutch East India trading company of our time. And it's like a nation state unto itself. That's where we're headed on MSCR.

Starting point is 00:57:42 This is the quote of the episode, by the way. It's MSTR is the game stop that doesn't stop. So, are you, are you betting on it being included in the NASDAQ? Do you think that's a done deal? And Jeff and Preston, too, I'm interested in your thoughts.

Starting point is 00:57:59 So listen, I'm not an expert in this area, but it went through the snapshot. And apparently, according to the people who know more about this stuff, it did meet all of the qualifications. And so there is a heavy expectation that it is going to be included

Starting point is 00:58:11 in the NASDAQ on December 13th, I believe it is. So that's the date to look out for there. Well, isn't the big question whether it's a non-financial company? So on NASDAQ's website, they have it listed under software and technology. And NASDAQ, right. So I mean, I think that's how they ranked it when they did the snapshot. And so I don't expect that to change is my point.

Starting point is 00:58:33 Bitcoin software and technology, Joe. Yeah. No, it's going to be interesting. I think by base case is probably it does get included, but there's a little bit of question mark in my mind that they, you know, there are powerful people that can, again, pick up a phone call. And I'm interested to see, Jeff, what do you think? Do you agree?

Starting point is 00:58:50 Do you think it's a done deal that's included in QQQ? I think it's a coin flip for the same reasons, because Taylor himself goes on CNBC now about daily saying we're a Bitcoin bank. Bitcoin Treasury company. DTC. Sure. But he also has said Bitcoin bank. He's used that term before.

Starting point is 00:59:07 And I'm like, that doesn't help your case for D. I would have waited to say that until after you got into the NASDAQ. and then maybe, you know, throwing that term up. We'll see. I think again, though, back to the point about like index, this is, if you're an indexer, you're into passive indexation. I mean, this is, this is the bull case for that is that you get to sit and just invest in the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 and the Bitcoin comes to you.

Starting point is 00:59:27 Yeah. So, yeah, if I'm an ASDAQ investor and I'm looking for high data that I want this. I agree. That's another inevitable trend, I believe, over time is Bitcoin's going to infiltrate the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ and the Dow. And so these incredible games, the Kager, of Bitcoin, right, that's so far above, it's actually going to rise to meet it

Starting point is 00:59:47 over time and they're going to coalesce over time. MSTR, I think, will get into the NASDAQ. If I had to bet on it right now, I would say, like, I have like an 85% confidence. This year, this year, week. Yeah, in December 10 days. 13th. Yeah, and, but

Starting point is 01:00:02 the S&P 500 is going to be a lot harder because there are a lot more qualifications and they have a lot more room to deny. So I think S&P 500, that's still, it's prestigious to be in the S&P 500. So it'll be harder to get into. But they will, I think, eventually get in over there as well. What do you think what would hold them back from the S&P 500?

Starting point is 01:00:21 What do you see? Yes, again, I'm not an expert on this. I was just listening to a bunch of guys talking about this. And there are all these denials from S&P 500 companies who otherwise qualified for sort of murky and mysterious reasons. And so you can see that happening to MSTR, whereas NASDAQ seems to be, you know, obviously pretty comfortable with technology plays. And so they let things like this in all the time.

Starting point is 01:00:41 Yeah. See, because I have the opposite opinion of you. I think it's a 50-50 chance of NASDAQ because they could say you're a financial company. You say it yourself, you know, your treasury company. And then the S&P 500, I think, to me it seems like it would be easier to get in. But I don't know anybody on either committee. So who knows? It is a funny thing that they have this very small B-to-B software business that is now dwarfed by, you know, the operations that their board is running.

Starting point is 01:01:08 And Michael Saylor is not even the CEO anymore. he's just chairman of the board. And it's funny, man. It's almost like subterfuge. It's like, look at us. We're just a small little software company. We're outperforming in video. I said that once on some Twitter space,

Starting point is 01:01:22 and I heard Sayler actually say it after where we were talking about, I said, and I said, I loved micro strategy. Like at the time, it was 20, 20, or something.

Starting point is 01:01:30 I said, what's going to happen is because Bitcoin is growing at such a rapid rate and is so valuable and getting increasingly valuable, is the value of their tech business is going to go to zero. over time in Bitcoin term. So it's just going to become this Bitcoin business. And then he actually started talking about that publicly too. And as basically admitted, my business was, you know, it was a dying business. What Bitcoiner, you know, he kind of has one foot in the traditional finance, one foot in the Bitcoin world. I think as a Bitcoiner that every business owner should be pulling

Starting point is 01:01:59 a sailor, right? Public, private, every individual, if you are able to and smart enough and can handle it, you should be doing your own, I got to be careful of it. You could be doing it. You could be doing your own speculative arbitrage like he's doing. And so I think people should generally be applauding it, although it is a concern that it's centralizing it so much. But I think most of those fears are overblown. And I think we should continue to be encouraging other business owners, CEOs, CFOs to be doing exactly what he's doing. It just hastens the strength and power of the Bitcoin network and, you know, and sort of the demise of the Fiat network. So I think it's awesome what he's doing. And I hope thousands of other businesses copy him.

Starting point is 01:02:42 I think the reason people are negative on the SEP 500, Jeff, is because you have to have, I think, four consecutive quarters of quarterly gains. Can't have a quarter of a lot? And they post quarterly losses this year, one of the quarters. Okay. Positive earnings? Yes. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:02:57 So it's kind of related to the FASB. That's related to the gap. Yeah. Okay. Gotcha. So because of the accounting has changed. And his election to when he wanted. to incorporate it. There's losses that are showing up because you had to mark your books

Starting point is 01:03:13 if Bitcoin was down from when you bought it and this whole thing. But the fact of the matter is, is the operations of the company, I believe, have been, you know, you take the Bitcoin out of it and you don't have to apply this FASB gap accounting rule. The operations of the business have been profitable. So once that starts kicking in, maybe there might be a slight delay on the S&P 500, depending on the treatment of that before it gets incorporated. All right, Joe, did you have one that you wanted to talk about for your number one? Yeah, nobody's talking about it right now. There's nobody in Bitcoin circles.

Starting point is 01:03:48 But to me, the most fascinating thing to look at, aside from epic Bitcoin price, we're going to all enjoy over the next six to 12 months is what's going to go on with the consumer price inflation data? To me, I think it's still running a little hotter than I expected, mostly held up by housing. And I'm interested to see what the reaction is from the central planners with that data. You got to remember the last couple of years, we've had this seasonal effect with some of the the CPI data where the early part of the year comes in a little hotter than the prior year. So I'm interested to see what the narrative is with that. If you still have inflation running

Starting point is 01:04:22 closer to three than two, particularly with what I alluded to earlier, where you've got this growing conflict between Powell and Trump. I mean, I don't know if you all saw that clip. He was so, I don't recall, I don't know, maybe Jeff or Preston, you remember, but I don't recall a moment where he was sort of more vitriolic and definitive with his response where he just said, no. And then he said, not

Starting point is 01:04:45 permitted under the law, that I cannot be fired under the law, period. So to me, that is, one thing I know about Donald Trump is, you don't tell him you can't do something that's like, you know, a poke and a bear, right? You don't do that. So when he did that, I'm like, okay, he's asking for it. There will absolutely

Starting point is 01:05:01 a conflict here. And I, I, Like I said, I alluded to earlier, but I think that's going to be a massive story that people in Fintwit and financial markets are going to be talking about a lot because we do know that he's going to try and get to jobs point rapid growth. He said he thinks rates are too high. He said he thinks they should probably come down. But then that against the backdrop of inflation, which if the markets are ripping, guys, that's positive for consumer demand. People going out and spending, especially the upper quartile, it does most of the consumer demand spending, they're buying houses, they're buying all sorts of, luxury items that drives the economy. And if those people have portfolios and you got Bitcoin at $200,000 and housing market takes off again because of some lower rates, man, I mean, you can see

Starting point is 01:05:43 another wave, not what we saw, you know, in 2022 or that type of inflation, but you can see a movement back up, which I think is something we're not talking about and assessing. And what do planners do in that environment? I love that. All right. Good. Yeah, no, Jeff. Go ahead. I'll throw out my inflation thoughts. I think that we've bottomed. And I was saying that like October was probably the bottom for CPI, September, October-ish. I think we have a mild increased inflation for the next six to nine months or so, at least. It's hard to see past that. But so I agree with you. So a couple things. I think at our last meeting, I said, we're going to have the 50 Bips cut and then a 25, which we got. And then one more, I think we're going to get one more still at this next meeting, one more 25 federal

Starting point is 01:06:30 fund rate, bips cut, and then we're done for now. And then the tension's going to start happening, right? Because Trump's going to be pressuring Powell to lower rates. We're going to see CPI slowly increase. I think we're going to get up into the kind of the three-ish, three-and-a-half levels again. A lot of people, to Joe's point, are talking about, they keep showing this double peak. We talked about this last time, do it, the double 70s inflation peak. We're not going to get that. We're just, are no, absolutely not. So get that out of your head. But we will have slowly rising. I will say, by the way, that's very good for. risk assets. This is a good sign of an economic, growing economic strength that we're back in the

Starting point is 01:07:07 recovery phase and early phase for the economic cycle. That's actually great. You want to see commodity inflation. That's early phase, early business cycle inflation. That's good. It bodes well for risk assets. It bodes well for commodities if you're a commodity investors. What it does make it difficult for is for Powell to justify continuing to lower the federal funds rate. So that's right. Yeah, which is what the chart press is showing. You can show the 10 year. You can show the 20 year. They're all telling the same thing. If you look at that bottom, right, which is in September, that's coincident with the Fed saying we're going to be in, you know, the cutting process, right? And what is the market done? What is the bond market done?

Starting point is 01:07:45 It's actually sold off in stuff. It's basically said that, yeah, you'll get a couple of high cuts on the front end, but we think we're going to have a bare steepening. We're going to have long end rates actually rise and the 10 years higher today than when they did the original cuts. That is telling you something from a market perspective. And I think that's an incredibly important story. And I'll tell you what is telling me. I see a lot of people saying like the Fed made a mistake or they say market has it wrong. I say absolutely what this means is the market participants are expecting higher future growth expectations. Economic growth and inflation are going to increase heading forward. And that's what rising rates mean.

Starting point is 01:08:23 Because it's a bare steepening, right? And you had all the recession uses for years, talking about the inverted yield curve. The curve's now uninverted, right? You have a positively sloping curve. So what is that telling you? That's telling you that they expect there not to be a recession.

Starting point is 01:08:37 It's just the opposite, right? It expects that we have actually troughed, and we think inflation is going to remain hotter, which should be reflected in longer and bond instruments. Yep. To me, it's very straightforward. There are people that flip out about it on the internet all the time, and this is a indicator

Starting point is 01:08:53 that we're heading into recession and the Powell is making a mistake. And oh my gosh, move to cash. Anyways. I think the people that are saying that are looking at the market and they're just saying there hasn't been a traditional bear market that they remember in their lifetime over the last 30, 40 years or what that looked like, like a 2008 scenario, right? We haven't had that. I mean, we did have a year of equity selling off almost a year, I would say, wasn't it? Yeah, that was kind of, yeah, that was the bare market. Now it's, it's ripping again, right? Right? Like, I don't know. I'm with you guys. I agree. Just to be clear, there have been many stock markets around the world that have had bear markets for 10 years.

Starting point is 01:09:33 The American stock market has done extraordinarily well for a lot of different reasons, structural reasons, right? The dollar, the strength of the dollar. But there are other markets that have had real long persistent. I mean, do you want to own European equities? Do you want to own Japanese equities for the long run? Nope. Is it a trick question? No. I was sticking and diversifying. All in meta planet, Japanese.

Starting point is 01:10:00 By the way, is it the best performing equity in the Japanese market? And you got Dylan Leclair at the helm of this company. How great is that? Insane. That's insane. I don't know how old he is. Is he 22? What is he now?

Starting point is 01:10:13 Pretty young. By the way, I worked closely with Dylan and Bitcoin Magazine Pro for a little chunk of time where we spoke regularly daily. I have extreme confidence in his intelligence and his ability. He is phenomenal. He's one of the great thinkers. And I think he'll be one of the great fund managers of his age. So it's fun to get to see him.

Starting point is 01:10:37 Isn't that crazy? I remember when he was just like a kid who followed me on Twitter, he had like 300 followers or something. He was like, hey, dude, should I drop out of college and go all in Bitcoin? I was like, yeah. That's somebody who talks to him quite often as well. I'm unreal, the level of intelligence. The thing that I always walk away with after talking to him is like, how in the world

Starting point is 01:10:57 does this kid in his early 20s possibly know what he knows? Like, the only way I know where I was at in my early 20s and like when I have these conversations with him, I was like, how in the world could you possibly know all this unless you just like downloaded it to your brain like a computer? Like it's nuts. But all right. That's all I have, guys, for the show. Did you guys, anybody else have something that they want?

Starting point is 01:11:20 to highlight or make sure we address. So I want to highlight this ruling we got from the Fifth Circuit, which I don't know if you're familiar with the, and I know it's more of a broader crypto case, but it is significant. This tornado cash ruling we got. Are you familiar with that? Yeah. No, go cover this, Joe. I wanted to cover this.

Starting point is 01:11:36 Yeah. So the tornado cash ruling that came down again, this is a court of appeals, right? So you've got the federal system for the viewers. You've got the district level courts, federal courts. They're the ones where you start out every case. And then you go to the courts of appeals. then you go to the Supreme Court. So this is a court that sits right below the United States Supreme Court, and they basically analyzed an issue whether the Treasury Department's

Starting point is 01:11:59 foreign asset control, OFAC, exceeded its authority with respect to freezing tornado cashes smart contracts and the assets held in those smart contracts. The reason this is significant, without getting into too much the legalese, is that they were analyzing what it means to be property under some of the OFAC guidance under the Act, which is not properly defined. And one of the amazing, it's a great opinion if you're bored and like me and you want to read it. But what it basically came down to was this. They found that the more immutable a contract, if a contract is truly immutable, meaning it cannot be changed, then it is not property. And OFAC was exceeding its authority when it was sanctioning that.

Starting point is 01:12:37 So this is a huge, basically, approval of the Bitcoiners mantra, which is basically let's make it decentralized. Let's make it immutable. Let's make it something where there is no man that can be hauled in accord to change the nature of the assets. And it's massive, right? And it has implications for the samurai case. Others, it's sort of a first major court of appeals decision on this subject. And what it, what the principle of law to take from it, and the court actually goes through an analysis, they say, if there was some ability to change this, if the court protocol was not immutable, meaning that it could be controlled or change or modified by anyone, if it was not immutable,

Starting point is 01:13:13 then we would say that it is property. But property requires an element of control. property requires you to have some ability to influence it. So the TLDR is the more immutable protocol, the more unchangeable protocol, the more difficult, it's not completely unlawful, it is for the government to sanction and seize the asset. So massive importance for privacy, for anonymizers, for protocols that are coming down the way. And if you're advising companies or you're working with companies, right, the key thing you got to focus on is to evade some of this sanction anonymizers in promoting privacy. So you have to focus on how do we make the protocol all work without an individual having control over it.

Starting point is 01:13:50 Wow. Take the human element out of it. That's amazing. Amazing summary, too, Joe. Thank you for making sure we brought that up. That is really interesting. Yeah, wow. That's exciting.

Starting point is 01:14:02 That's really exciting. Thank you for that. Okay, anybody else? Are we good? All right. Fourth quarter mastermind conversation concluded. Gentlemen, thank you. We will have links in the show notes to your Twitter feeds or X feeds or whatever we're

Starting point is 01:14:16 calling them to your not. Noster feeds because I know Jeff, he's on Noster. Guys, it's a great time to try out Noster. Primal 2.0 just came out. It's an amazing client. I'm an advisor at Primal, so I'm very biased. But go there, try it out. It's amazing.

Starting point is 01:14:31 You get a Bitcoin Lightning Wallet with your account and you're able to post in a decentralized kind of way, just like you do on Twitter. And it is very vibrant over there. Very vibrant. Is there an equivalent of like Twitter spaces on primal? There is. Well, there's a Noster's Nest. Noster Nests.

Starting point is 01:14:49 There's Noster Nest, which is, here's the downfall with Noster Nest is because everything's decentralized, you don't have, like, when you go on the Twitter and you log in and you see like a purple like circle around my logo, you know I'm talking and that there might be other people there that you want to listen to, so you dial into that conversation. Because this is like another entity or another service provider, the interoperability between that service provider and Noster is still just not there. So you're not being able to generate these larger conversations. I don't even know if their servers could handle the larger conversation.

Starting point is 01:15:26 Maybe they can. I don't know. But that interoperability is the piece that's still like still getting worked on. Will it get there? I'm pretty sure it's going to get. But for right now, the space is part of it. It exists, but it's a little, there's smaller conversations. Good things take time.

Starting point is 01:15:43 That's good. Good things take time. Yeah. They're building it. They're working on it. They are working on it. So, check it out. I co-signed everything Preston said.

Starting point is 01:15:51 They call themselves a social Bitcoin wallet. And if you're a Bitcoiner who's like, whatever, man, I get all my news from X and who cares. I don't need to be on Nost or whatever. It's just a bunch of nerds talking about Bitcoin. It is. That's why I like it. But the thing that's interesting is, I think it's a window into these different types of social

Starting point is 01:16:09 interactions relating to some of Bitcoin's unique. properties, like zapping people's posts and, you know, value for value and being able to pay people directly and easily and cheaply. It's something that's very interesting. And I would highly recommend downloading primal and just checking it out. Joe, you got to come over more than Astrosher so we can have our conversations. Like, just pop over on soil and start say something controversial so we can get a conversation. Everybody go to Joe on Twitter and tell him he needs to get on Noster and download Primal.

Starting point is 01:16:41 It's easy, Joe. It's super easy. I got to do it. But then what do you do with Twitter? What do you just abandon the platform? I mean, you guys just talking. No, I'm using both. Yeah, it's not like you're losing money.

Starting point is 01:16:54 There's no opportunity cost being on both, you know. So just, yeah, use both. Time. Time is the opportunity cost. Yeah, right. Hey, no, listen, listen, it's important to spend as much time on your phone as you can while you're alive because you won't have it when you die. Okay.

Starting point is 01:17:09 Now I can be able to take your phone with you when you die. Spend as much time on it now. Ignore your children. Ignore your wife. Spend a lot. Eight hours, nine hours. That's not enough. You got to go 12, 13, 14 hours a day on your phone.

Starting point is 01:17:20 And for anybody that knows Hoddle, they know that that is definitely not his real advice. He is a family man to a team. Guys, this has been a blast. We'll have, you know, the stuff we talked about in the show notes. I'll have links to these folks in the show notes. And thank you so much for coming on and doing this every quarter. It really means a lot to me. I know we get a lot of positive.

Starting point is 01:17:41 of feedback from the audience. So guys, thanks for making time. Thanks for having us. Thanks for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow Bitcoin Fundamentals on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To access our show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only, before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted. before syndication or rebroadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC213: 4Q 2024 Bitcoin Mastermind w/ Joe Carlasare, Jeff Ross, American HODL (Bitcoin Podcast)

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.