We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP 066 : Mastermind Discussion 4Q 2015 (Business Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 We studied billionaires, and this is episode 66 of the MS's podcast. Broadcasting from Bel Air Maryland. This is the Investors Podcast. They'll read the books and summarize the lessons. They'll test the waters and tell you when it's cold. They'll give you actionable investing strategies. Your host, Preston Pish and Stig Broderson. Hey, how's everybody doing out there?

Starting point is 00:00:31 Preston Pish, and I'm your host for The Investors Podcast, and as usual, I'm accompanied by my co-host, Stig Broderson, out in Denmark. We've got a lot more people than just Stig with us today because we have assembled the mastermind discussion yet again for the fourth quarter of 2015. And Toby Carlisle basically said, I don't want to be here anymore. I am moving out of the United States. I'm going to Australia, and I'll see you guys later. Not really.

Starting point is 00:00:57 But Toby is on vacation in Australia. So he wasn't able to make it today. So we have a special guest that's joining us. And I was really, really, really excited to bring this gentleman on the show with us. Because James Moroski is his name. And James is a member of our forum, the Warren Buffettforum.com. And James, I can't even tell you how much James has helped Stig and I out over the last, what, four or five months. So the thing I got to tell you about Stiginai is we are really, really bad at Prodig.

Starting point is 00:01:30 I mean, like, epically bad. We might somewhat understand some of the investing stuff, but when it comes to programming, we are really clueless. Let me tell you. So we've been programming our sites and HTML and CSS and like really just straight old school. I think everybody on the planet right now has a WordPress website. We do not. I was very hesitant to change it.

Starting point is 00:01:52 So we have Colin who's helping us out with that piece of it. We bring James into the mix and he's helping us convert because we used to have this form. It was called a PHPBB forum. Already I'm lost. Anyone who went to the old forum knew how bad it was and everyone was always complaining about the layout, everything. So if you've seen our new forum, the reason that we have this new form and it's so easy to use is because of James. James came along and he's like, I will help you guys out. I will basically convert your old form over to this new PHP.

Starting point is 00:02:23 I mean, I don't even know what I'm talking about pretty much. He comes rolling in and just totally converts this thing over for us. and we are totally indebted to you, James. Thank you so much. I want to publicly say this in front of our audience. Thank you for helping us out. Hey, Preston. Yeah, thanks.

Starting point is 00:02:39 I really appreciate that. That was a very generous introduction. Thanks. I really just wanted to try to help out and kind of return some of that value that you guys have given to me. And that's one way that I could do that. So thank you. So we're really excited to have James because what James is doing is he's really

Starting point is 00:02:55 bringing the voice of the users on our forum. So we want to show our audience, hey, we're going to start bringing people into the mix here. It doesn't necessarily have to be somebody that's helped us out. Like in James's case, we can pull somebody off the forum. There's so much talent in our community. It's insane. It's totally insane. So James is here today to represent our forum community.

Starting point is 00:03:17 He's going to be asking a bunch of questions that he's pulled from the forum, some that he has on his own, some that he's pulled from previous episodes. So in addition to having James on the show, we have Colin Yablonski from, from Inbound Interactive. He's up in Canada. Also, Hari Ramachandra, who's been with us since the very beginning of the show, and he's from bitsbusiness.com. So guys, what we're going to do is we're just going to open it up onto the floor. And I think since James is the new guy, let's go ahead and give him the first opportunity to ask a question and open it up to the group. So James, go ahead and fire away when you're ready. Thanks, Preston. See, I'll just start out with my first question.

Starting point is 00:03:50 Trace Knappa previously mentioned kind of hedging aids and inflation by structuring real estate debt in the end, right? So he would take his real estate property and then kind of basically take a loan out on that property in the end. This sounds really, really amazing to me. And I kind of understand the reward or the upside potential of it, but I don't really understand the downside risk very well. What are your guys' thoughts about that? And part two of that question is kind of where on earth do I find a bank to do this at? I really want to respond to this because this is something that I've actually got a lot of emails from people on. First and foremost, I think it's important for us to discuss the context of that idea. So this is really,

Starting point is 00:04:25 really a Kyle Bass play. I don't know if people in our audience are familiar with Kyle Bass, but Kyle Bass was this hedge fund guy out of the 2008-2009 crash. He was basically buying insurance policies on CDOs, consolidated debt obligations. And basically, if CDOs collapsed and went to nothing, he could exercise those insurance policies and basically make everything on return. It was like this huge upside downside bet that he had put on CDOs during the last collapse. This all came out in Michael Lewis's book, The Big Short, so he was profiled. Kyle Bass was profiled in that book. Kyle Bass, you know, obviously becomes a huge name in the investing community after that amazing play, because I think it turned out to be Stig might know

Starting point is 00:05:12 the number better than me, but I want to say it was like a $600 to $800 million deal for Kyle Bass when he put this play on. It was huge. That number might be. messed up, but I think it was a fairly substantial amount of money that he made on that play. So fast forward into like the 2013 time frame. Kyle Bass is huge on this idea that Japan's going to default on their debt. In fact, that's where Trace got the whole idea. From my understanding, that's where Trace got the whole idea for all this stuff. So Kyle Bass being the smart guy that he is, he's out of Texas, I think Dallas, Texas,

Starting point is 00:05:45 for anybody that's interested. So Kyle Bass being the smart businessman that he is comes up with a. marketing strategy for how he can sell this idea of shorting Japanese debt. So one of the ideas that he comes up with for marketing this is let me take out a loan on my house, which he obviously didn't need to do, and I'm going to take it out in whatever the property was that he was buying. I'm going to take out this loan. I'm going to denominate it in Japanese yen to prove a point and to really capture a lot of interest and have people talk about this idea. So Kyle Bass does this, it becomes this big idea and it gets a lot of people talking.

Starting point is 00:06:22 Now, fast forward to where we're at right now in the very end of 2015. Do I think that this is a good idea? Actually, I don't think it's a good idea. I think there's a little bit of concern with this. Actually, just recently read a report that was saying that most banks think that the Japanese yen is actually going to gain strength over the next year to the tune of like 15% strength in the Japanese yen. Now, why would I think that that would happen or do I agree with that?

Starting point is 00:06:49 I don't know if I agree with it or not, but there's a lot of big banks that are saying that this is going to happen, not just one. So if I was going to say why I think the Japanese yen could potentially get stronger, is because maybe this abonomics is going to have to start winding down. And if they do that based on the deflationary pressures that they have, that's going to make their currency stronger, which is going to hurt their GDP growth, which is going to stunt their growth even more. and there's going to be a run on Japanese yen, and that's what makes it stronger. So I'm a little concerned about that play. I don't know if that's necessarily a good play or not. So if you're denominating your debt in that, that's not a good thing. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:07:24 It's a very contrarian point of view that I have away from Trey. I understand the logic, you know, tenfold. I understand why these guys are saying this and why they think it's going to be bad. And you know what? They might be exactly right. But I'm just really hesitant to even dabble in that. And this goes back to Stig's eloquent response. wants, just stay away. I don't know what's going to happen. It's in such uncharted waters. Why are we

Starting point is 00:07:47 going to even play with this? And I think then you've got to run through the rigmarole of trying to nominate all your debt through some bank that's going to do this. I mean, it just sounds like a really big headache to me. But I'm curious to hear what other people think about it. I'm not really a big fan of this play. I'm like Preston. I can see the logic if you do think that the yen will default or the Japanese, coming for that matter, which will be both in the end, obviously. It might be a good play. But I'm just thinking, if you want to go into real estate, hey, guess what? Go into real estate.

Starting point is 00:08:17 If you want to speculate in currency, I definitely wouldn't recommend that, but you can do that. But why do you have to do both things at the same time? That's what I think might be confusing people. It'd be like hitting a billiard ball. You ever try to hit a billiard ball where you play off of one of your stripes and you're trying to hit another stripe into the pocket? It's a really hard shot to do. And that's kind of like exactly what sticks saying.

Starting point is 00:08:39 Why are we trying to piggyback ideas? here, we're just making the shot that much more difficult. I guess that's the best way I could physically describe what Stig's saying. Yeah, and obviously, Trey might be right or Cabas might be right, but like if I had to look at this as stock invest, it would be the same as if I would say, I would like to buy Coca-Cola stocks on the margin. Obviously, if I'm right, I mean, it's a good investment because not only will I have a price appreciation, you know, I can multiply that with whatever I chose to leverage that with. But guess what? If I'm wrong, I'll just be punished that much harder. So yeah, I wouldn't like to do that. All right, James. I don't know if that

Starting point is 00:09:15 helps answer the question for you or not, but those are some of my thoughts, Stiggs thoughts. Hari or Colin, did you guys have anything to piggyback on with that? Preston, I have one thought to share. When I was listening to your description, one thing was sure that this is way out of my circle of competence. So it's probably out of mind too, so don't worry. Yeah. So I think three-fourth of what you said just went on top of my head. So I will just watch and educate myself, but I'm going to stay away. Yeah, and I would say the exact same thing. I mean, I've talked a little bit on previous mastermind meetings and groups

Starting point is 00:09:52 about hedging the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. So I've done a little bit of that and investigated it a little bit. But in terms of leveraging myself and potentially buying real estate to effectively short a currency, it's not something that I would have a lot of experience in. Yeah, it's very difficult. And I think that Stig had a great description of trying to do two things at once. So, hey, Hari, go ahead and go with the next question. I want to hear what you got.

Starting point is 00:10:17 Sure. Just talking about the markets in general, we know that a lot of countries are facing slowdown in their markets, whether it is China or Japan. And U.S. is kind of relatively doing well. It's like a good house and a bad neighborhood. However, there has been a recent discussions all around about are we in a bubble or the stock market in the U.S. getting overheated. This brings to the point that Manish Babri made in his annual shareholders meeting, he said

Starting point is 00:10:47 he doesn't think we are in a bubble. However, he said he thinks we might be revisiting Nifty 50. And for those who are not familiar with Nifty 50, Nifty 50 refers to the 50 popular large cap stocks on New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s. 70s and they were regarded as solid buy and hold growth stocks. And the Nifty 50 was credited for propelling the bull markets in 1970s. And most of them were solid performers. And these companies are still around and these are companies like McDonald's or Disney.

Starting point is 00:11:28 However, there were a few technology stocks in that Nifty 50 like Polaroid and Eastman Kodak or digital. you know, they are not here anymore. So not all of them were great. However, the P valuation for them were really high. They were in the 90s. And as we enter the 1980s, the valuations for them drastically fell and obviously a lot of people lost money. And Pabra, I kind of saw some similarities in today's market

Starting point is 00:12:01 where there are some darlings of the stock market who are highly valued companies in the technology sector. And there are many other companies which are decent, but are totally ignored by the market. So he said there is some imbalance in the market. I wanted to get your thoughts. What do you think? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:12:21 There was an article in Forbes back in November, and it talked about the S&P 500, right? And that there were basically five companies kind of carrying the S&P 500. It was like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, GE. And it basically stated something along the lines of without those companies that the S&P 500 would be at a negative, right, by like 2.5% or somewhere around that number. So I don't know if that kind of highlights what you're talking about, Harry. Yes, I think that's a good point. In fact, Amazon or Alphabet or even Facebook and many other technology companies are valued at a very high B today.

Starting point is 00:13:01 And some of them don't even show earnings based on gap reporting. They have adjusted EBITA earnings. And even then they are valued in terms of PE multiples of more than 50 or 60, which kind of is very similar to the nifty 50 era. So it's a great study to learn from what happened and what kind of mindset and psychology played into the higher valuations then. So all of them, as you mentioned, starts with a grain of truth that,

Starting point is 00:13:37 yes, the nifty 50 were great buy and hold stocks and they were growth stocks as well. They were growing at a very healthy pace. But when you overvalue them and when you pay really high prices, they no longer are as great as an investment. So that was the point, I guess, Oberoi was trying to make. Even today, Amazon is a great company,

Starting point is 00:13:58 But at some price, it will start looking to be a mediocre investment. So, Hari, I want to throw out there because I've studied the PE ratios over the last 75 years. And I'll be honest with you, from like the 1960 to 1980 time frame somewhere in there, I don't really remember the PE ratio is ever getting to the levels that they're at today. Assuming that you're using like a Schiller PE ratio, right now where we're at, it's much higher than we ever had back then. Now, I think your point is more that there was a few companies that had multiples. They were traded at multiples similar to the ones we're seeing today.

Starting point is 00:14:33 But I would disagree with Pabri, which means I'm probably wrong. But I would disagree with Pabri and say that I think that we are in a much worse position today because I think you have more companies that are being traded at that multiple. And I think it's totally a function of the interest rate. So you go back to that time period. Where were interest rates in the 1970s? They were very high. and right now where we're at, we're polarizing rates to zero.

Starting point is 00:14:58 So when you do that and you look at the corresponding market price that is associated with those interest rates, it's very hard to get a high market price on equities when you got interest rates over 10%. It's just a fact because they're totally correlated to each other. There's this back and forth. There's this flow of capital between fixed income and equities that occurs. So when you drop rates down to zero, and you're going to see those prices and equity shoot up because people are doing that comparison. And people were saying, let's go back to 2008, 2009 as a perfect example. If you go back then, what were PEs at?

Starting point is 00:15:30 10, a P.E of 10. So that means you're going to get a 10% return if you invest at that level, assuming that their earnings remain constant. So as an investor, that's a no-brainer decision for somebody that's allocating a lot of capital. They're like, hey, I could get a 10% return in equities or I could go to the fixed income side and get 2%. Where are they going to go? Well, they're going to start funneling all their money into equities. And so that's why you saw the price and equities just build and build and build until these are coming between fixed income and equities or stocks.

Starting point is 00:15:58 They're coming at parity with each other. And so that's why I think that I think he's wrong. I mean, I just really do. And I think that it's a function of looking at the interest rates in this era versus that era. And I think that we're very high. Yeah, I want to hear from James and Colin because like you guys, you really know things about technology, as you heard in the beginning contract to Preston and I.

Starting point is 00:16:19 So you actually, this might be. within your circle of combatants. So are you guys invested in technology stocks right now and why and why not? So no. I tend to stay away from technology stocks, even though I work in technology. And maybe it's a function of just seeing what the inner workings of the businesses look like. When I invest in companies, they tend to be standard traditional companies. So, you know, at Berkshire, Hathaway or on the private side in local businesses that I can either finance myself or purchase myself. But no, I tend to stay away from technology stocks like they're a plague. Yeah, I can agree with what Colin said. I'm not in any of these companies at the moment.

Starting point is 00:17:02 I think technology companies are within my circle of competence, but I think that the way that they generate revenues is significantly different, right? So yeah, I don't currently invest in anything, but I'm also kind of a bear right now. So, Hari, I just want to ask you a question because you're out there in Silicon Valley. So I think that you would have a better beat on this, but I'm reading articles. I'm looking at one right now from the Wall Street Journal, and the title of it is Venture Capitalist Sound Alarm on Startup Investing. And this is a very recent article. And there's tons of these articles out there through Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, where they're basically saying, and you're seeing billionaire saying it too,

Starting point is 00:17:38 that out in Silicon Valley, they're unicorns, is the term that they like to continue to use in the financial news. Another unicorn, another unicorn. And what they're referring to is just these insane market prices and multiples that people are paying for top line revenue for a company that's not even profitable. So first question I got for you, are you seeing some of that starting to dry up or tighten out there in Silicon Valley? And I guess I'm just curious if you're hearing any like horror stories of how much harder it is for startups that basically capture money from venture capitalists out there. That's a great question, Kristen. And that is something that is on my mind from past couple of months.

Starting point is 00:18:19 And you brought up a very good point. In Silicon Valley today, unicorns are like ponies. You can find them everywhere. So they are no longer unicorns. And the valuations are also reaching really published territory. Like Uber today is around $63 to $65 billion valuation, even before it has even gone public.

Starting point is 00:18:42 However, there are people sounding alarm and you're right. And now I see that the valley is it split into two camps. You might have heard about the famous argument between Mark Cuban and Mark Anderson on their blocks about bubble in the valley and how Mark Cuban thought that the private equity, there is a bubble. And Mark Anderson argued that he doesn't think so. In fact, he thinks that it is still fairly valued or maybe undervalued. So there is definitely kind of an idea.

Starting point is 00:19:15 ideological argument going on. But what I see on the ground is that reality is slowly sinking in for a couple of reasons. Number one, when some of these unicorns like box went public, they had to actually down value their initial public offering compared to how they were valued in private equity. So there is definitely a bubble in the private equity. So those are the science. And also another thing I'm seeing is there is a slowdown. even though it's very slight in the real estate market in the valley. So the bidding wars have reduced.

Starting point is 00:19:53 The number of bits that houses on sale used to get are slowly coming down. So all these indicates on the ground that there is some cooling off going on, whether it will be gradual or will the bubble bust all of a sudden? It's hard to say. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Austin. at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the

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Starting point is 00:24:26 And I think this is going to surprise a lot of people and I'm going to throw this idea out there. In fact, I just sent this out in the newsletter last night to all of our listeners. For the people that are subscribed on our newsletter, I send out how I'm seeing the current. market. Sometimes I even throw out some of the stock picks that I'm actually purchasing. Last night, I did that. And it's a very odd one and not one that I guess I would have seen myself doing a few years back. And that's because it was a short position. And for anybody out there, I'm not really

Starting point is 00:24:55 necessarily recommending it for the audience. I'm just saying that this is something that I'm doing and I want to talk about it. And if it ends up being a mistake, I want to talk about it on the show. so we can just, you know, everyone can learn through my mistake potentially. So here's the idea. I think that the high yield bond market is a disaster. I think that this thing's just getting warmed up and I think it's going to be disastrous. My personal opinion, I'm sure you could find some people out there that might argue in the opposite direction. But what I can see right now, you have a major out of balance supplying demand of buying and selling that's happening in this market right now.

Starting point is 00:25:31 from I'd say 2011 through 2000, even up to 2014, you had tons of people buying into this market because they were chasing yield. You couldn't find yield anywhere. So what happened was is you had a lot of people that go into the high yield bond market because they're able to pull out a 7 or 8% return by being in it. And now you're starting to see a lot of people sell out of that market because you're starting to see the defaults go up, which we've been, Stig and I have been talking about defaults, increasing in the industry across the board. I mean, we were talking more specifically in the energy

Starting point is 00:26:04 sector, but just across the board, we've been saying that these defaults are going to continue to go up. And they have. And so as that continues to happen, you're seeing more and more people say, hey, you know what, I don't want to be that guy that's holding on to this high yield bond. And when we say high yield bond, junk bond, same thing. It's a borrower with a very good chance of default. That's what we're talking about here. So you're seeing a lot of people say, I don't want to hold this stuff. Well, here's the impact of that. So when you have an influx of people that are selling out of the high yield bond market, what happens is that pushes up the yield. Okay, so as yield goes higher, and now these companies that are defaulting need to borrow again, guess what? They're not

Starting point is 00:26:44 getting the bonds at 7 percent. Now they've got to go and they've got to issue these things at 10 or 13 percent or where they're at right now, which is 17 percent. Okay. And so my personal opinion. I might be completely wrong. But my personal opinion is one of the leading indicators that you've basically hit the top of a credit expansion cycle is when you start to see the high yield bonds or the junk bonds start to really, the yield on those really start to take off and you see a lot of people selling out of them. That's what we're seeing right now. In fact, let me pull up my chart here, so I quote this correctly. Okay. So if we go back just a couple months, you've seen the high yield go from around the 14% level, clear up over 17% with just in the last month alone. Now, for some

Starting point is 00:27:30 context, because my next question would immediately be, how high did high yields go during the last crash or the last tightening? And so just to put this in context, that's at 17% right now during the last downturn in the 2008-2009, it got as high as like 45% in high yield. So that kind of gives you an idea of how much more this has to go. So my opinion, we're moving in that direction. We're starting to see the tightening of the overall seven, the short-term business cycle, credit cycle starting to contract. I think that the high-yield bond market is the leading indicator of that. And so for me, I'm comfortable, actually very comfortable, stepping into a short position into the high-yield bond market. I've done that through a ticker called SJB. If all of that

Starting point is 00:28:15 sounds like Greek, all that stuff I'm saying, do not go out and buy S-JB. be. This is something that you need to understand yourself. If it makes total perfect sense to you, then I tell you that, hey, put the play on, do it, have fun, see what happens. But I want to continue to talk about this position because it's a short position. It's not something that I've really done in the past. So with all that said, I want to open it up to the group and see if you guys have any comments, if you think it's a bad idea, if you think it's a good idea, or you have no comment, I think we'll just go around the horn and see what people say. Well, you might be right, because Right now we're seeing it like a high market and you probably also see that there's a lot of credit

Starting point is 00:28:54 that you're saying that's contracting and you have an increased interest rate or at least we assume that we have a high interest rate. So this is recorded December 13th. So this is before the Fed meeting. So we can be completely wrong about that obviously. But it would make sense if you would see more sellers than buyers in this market. I think one of the reasons why I'm not doing it is. that I don't know when I wanted to close my position.

Starting point is 00:29:22 And I think that's something that's important for me to have an idea about. So I would like to hear this from James, Colin, and Harry, but I would actually also like to know from you afterwards, Preston, when do you intend to close the position or what your thoughts are on that. Okay, so we'll go around the horn and then I'll answer Stig's question. I have a question to you, and that is about the reason why the interest rates in the junk bond or the yields in the junk bond goes high. Why are people exiting out of junk bonds? And if they exit out of junk bond, where are they going? What do you think is the reason for them

Starting point is 00:29:58 to exit out of their positions in the junk bonds? Do they fear that the companies, underlying companies are not going to fare well? Or is it more a macro economic position? No, I'm basing it on the fact, and this is my opinion. I could be completely wrong about why people were doing it. But the reason I think that you're seeing a lot of people sell out of it is because you're seeing the defaults increase and you're starting to see that pick up and accelerate slightly. That's why I think people are selling out of the position. And I think where they're funneling that money is I think they're keeping it in fixed income, but they're putting it into maybe federal treasuries, something that is totally protected that there's no risk of default on. I think that's where

Starting point is 00:30:39 it's going. I don't think that they would necessarily be taking that and putting it in equities. I could be wrong, but I would say they're probably chasing something that's a lot less riskier in the fixed income side. So I would say that since I take all of my stock investing advice from Stig and Preston, that it's a brilliant idea. But, you know, for me, I've never been a proponent of shorting. You're betting against a company. You're betting against a stock. You're betting against a bond. And for me, that's always been an uncomfortable position to take, just in terms of how I approach and

Starting point is 00:31:12 So for me, I'm much more prone to invest in a small business or something within my own company. Before James goes, I want to comment on Colin's response because I like what you just said. Anyone that's gone through the videos that I put up on Buffett's books, I highly promote people to invest and not speculate. But, you know, I have to admit, like the position is really quite speculative because what is it that I'm investing in? Am I investing in a business? No, I'm not. Am I investing in giving some people lending money so that they can be productive with it? No, I'm not doing that either.

Starting point is 00:31:47 In fact, I'm doing the opposite of that. And so is that right? I think you could get into a big, long discussion on that. Is this trading instead of investing? I think you could maybe say it is trading. I'm just wrestling with the idea myself, to be quite honest with you, but I want to be fully open and honest with the community and tell them what I'm doing. but whenever I look at this, you know, from my vantage point, I say, hey, there's going to be more defaults.

Starting point is 00:32:12 The dollar's getting stronger. The Fed's potentially going to raise rates, which is only going to amplify this. And so what I'm putting a position on is that I think defaults are going to continue to increase, which is going to result more selling. And if that's a position that I could make money on, I guess I'm exercising that and I'm going after it. So far, and I think this is good for context, is I got into this position kind of near the beginning of December, probably like December 5th. I want to say the position is up like 5 or 10% from where I bought in at during that time frame already. And so I'll continue to update people on this,

Starting point is 00:32:46 you know, every other episode or whatever as things develop and we'll see what happens. So President, when do you want to close this position? So you're saying, okay, it's up 5% or 10%. So how do you evaluate the position? This is like, hey, I want that to go up by, say, 50% or is it like what's the interest or how do you evaluate that?

Starting point is 00:33:07 So my exit strategy is pretty simple and it's based off of historical results and that has nothing to do with saying that this is how it's going to play out next time. But when you look at those defaults from the last 2007, which that might be more dramatic than this tightening cycle or whatnot, but when you look at when it peaked, when you got a 47% yield in high yield bonds, that happened right around the time where you were at a stock market bottom. So my other opinion would be that I might see similar yields in that market that would be similar to where it was at last time. So if it's at 17% right now and last time it went to 47%. I would say there's a lot of margin left for that to continue to grow and to turn into even a better position

Starting point is 00:33:52 than where it's already at. So that's kind of how I'm basing it. I'm also looking at the volume on the equity market. I think whenever that volume on the equity market would spike and you're really seeing a lot of people start to buy back into the equity market, that might be a good spot for me to really kind of move out of the position. So for me, it's kind of like a long play because I don't know when the market's going to melt down. I have no idea when that's going to happen. I mean, it could be a year from now. I don't know. But I do feel that based on all the charts I'm looking at and all the things I've been researching, I think that we are in a position right now where we are starting to contract and tighten the money supply, which means I think defaults are going to go up.

Starting point is 00:34:30 The first place that's going to happen is in the high-yield market, and that's why I think it's a good play. But I don't plan on moving out of it anytime soon. I can tell you that. It's not like I'm going to sell out of this in two weeks from now. Okay, so the question that I wanted to ask you today in the topic I wanted to discuss is nanocap stocks. So these are stocks that would typically be classified, or not even stock story, but private equities or private companies that are typically classified as companies that have somewhere between $2 and $20 million in annual revenue. Now, what was interesting is that I read a report that was published a few years ago that said by 2022 in Canada that a lot of the baby boomer businesses, which will contribute at that point

Starting point is 00:35:12 time, about $3.7 trillion to the Canadian economy, these businesses will be looking to trade hands. And in total, there were about 550,000 of them. So the thing that was interesting is that they're discussing what's called the nanogap. the fact that there's not enough private equity in people purchasing these companies available to accommodate for that, you know, $3.7 trillion worth of businesses that are going to be on the market. And so it just seemed like an opportunity. And I was hoping to collect the feedback from the group just as to what your thoughts are on these smaller businesses, knowing that they potentially tend to be higher risk, but they also

Starting point is 00:35:52 tend to trade at a relatively low PE ratio. This is actually something that Colin and I have been discussing outside of the forum and outside of the MastMat meetings. We were meeting up in Canada like six months ago and doing all the maple syrup tours and the beautiful, beautiful landscape of Canada. And then we discussed a lot of business. And I think the thing I remembered most from the trip was actually this discussion we had about this gap, as you're talking about this nanogap. And I'm going to say if I could figure out how to manage these companies, if I can figure out somewhere I could put someone I really trust to manage these companies, I think this might be one of the biggest opportunities out there right now. Because Colin said that the PEs of this company was really low, but we're really talking about PEs of 1, 1.5 or something like that. Is that correct, Colin? Yeah. So I'm a partner in a waste management company here in Calgary and other comparable companies in the industry. I've actually seen them trade at or below the price of their assets. And when I say trade, I should actually clarify. They're private companies that have been listed for sale at or below the price of their assets, not taking into consideration their cash flow, which for a lot of small businesses can be quite substantial, even though they might only be doing $5 million in annual revenue.

Starting point is 00:37:14 So, Colin, I got a question about that, which you just described, because to me, that sounds like that would be a short-term situation based on the troubles and the difficulties that they're having in the economy up there in Calgary right now. So is that a true statement or is this something that you think has been really kind of persistent, even in a good or bad economy up there? So I've actually seen these opportunities probably over the last 12 to 24 months. I don't believe that it is to do specifically with the economy right now. In fact, a lot of the companies that I'm talking about are companies that have been for sale or listed in the United States. It tends to be more of an issue with succession planning and finding people who are willing to purchase these companies knowing that in most cases they're owner operator. So somebody actually has to come in and manage a team, manage staff, manage the accounting and billing and all the other things that go along with running a small business. So would you say that basically these people have created these companies, but what they've really done is just create a job for themselves?

Starting point is 00:38:11 and as you remove that person who's basically running it, managing it, and giving themselves a salary, if you have to replace that person and it wouldn't be yourself because you're just going to sit there as the owner, you're going to hire somebody into that role, maybe the earnings at the bottom of that or the net income at the bottom of that is really kind of minuscule and not worth the risk. Would you say that that's a true statement? Because that's what I would expect. Yeah, it's very close in some situations to, if you were to replace the owner of the company, is the cash flow going to be substantial enough to warrant your investment of time? So I think that's what you've got to ask yourself.

Starting point is 00:38:45 Because if you start skimping on that salary, let's say you don't get somebody who's really strong to step in and run this small business. And you, because that's your margin is how much you pay him versus you pay some guy who's not trustworthy, whatever that delta is, that's your margin that you're playing with. And so do you want the headaches with a bigger margin or do you pay somebody who can manage it and you really don't make all that much money and you're potentially assuming risk. If somebody got hurt while they're in the John or whatever it is, you're assuming risk there. You know what I mean?

Starting point is 00:39:18 So I think it'd be a case-by-case kind of thing, but that would be really kind of at the heart of the calculation as you're trying to figure out if it would be something that's worth your time. I think the potential of what you described here, Colin, I think that's huge. I think it's a very difficult. So one thing is the whole management system, as we discussed. the other thing is how do you read the financial statements? So I'm not really saying that the financial statements are necessarily manipulated, but they are reculated differently. So the way that you would regulate the financial statements for a listed company, a huge listed company, but very different than what you see whenever they might send you the financial statements. And it might be

Starting point is 00:39:57 tempting to say, okay, so this company is making $600,000 at the bottom. I can buy that for $700,000. Wow, I get a huge return, but there was just so many things that you need to include in that calculation. I think that would be really hard. I also think that if you are capable of doing that, I think your return could be huge. I really, really think you can make a lot more than you can do in the stock market because as you say, this is really a supply and demand issue. Say you're 68 years old, your son or dollar, if you have, perhaps you don't have any kids, they don't want to continue with your waste management company.

Starting point is 00:40:33 So what do you do? like who is going to buy that company. You might not want to sell to your competitor in the city. You might be the owner one in town. Who has the expertise and who has $700,000 in cash to buy that company? I think that that's the tricky thing. Yeah, you hit a home run with that because you got to also think about what's the market size for that specific location.

Starting point is 00:40:53 It's not an online business. So your market size isn't the world. You're really kind of stuck to your local area of how many people have, you know, 500K or $2 million to buy these tangible assets, your market size is four people, you know what I mean? So that's obviously going to drive the price down and you're going to have a really low multiple, which is a great thing if you're a buyer in the market. I think the market cap that you talk about, Colin, I think that's really interesting because say something like $2 million, like there are very, very few people that have $2 million.

Starting point is 00:41:23 And if you do have that, you would usually buy something bigger, right? So if you are in like private equity or if you are a bank, you know, if you're a bank, You know, if you're a bank, two million is really not that interesting. Because this is a case-by-case thing. You need to put the same energy in a $2 million project that you might do in, say, $100 million. So why would you care about $2 million? But there are very few private investors who have $2 million, and even than they have, they don't have the knowledge and they're not diversified enough by buying a waste management unit or whatnot

Starting point is 00:41:49 when they could be in the stock market. And something to say on top of what Stig said, they're not going to want to do something operationally. If you got $2 million, you don't want to have to be dealing with the problems and the issues of running an operational subsidiary. So that's the other piece of it too. I mean, you're young. You're going to kill it. So I say you have that, baby. I'm just thinking, you know, I might have all this knowledge about the stock market, but that might yield 4%. And then you have someone like calling because his knowledge is much more specific. He actually knows how to run a waste management company and, you know, he has the cash and he knows what he's doing. So, and that might yield

Starting point is 00:42:28 100% a year. That's a lot more interesting to be Colin, to be a stick. I can tell you. And if anybody in Calgary types in waste management on Google, he'll be the first result because he needs to do that too. Yeah, let's hope so. Cool. Well, thanks for your comments, guys. So Preston and Stig, I had one question for Colin. And that is, are these companies usually service? disoriented or do you find any of them having a product with captive customers? It's a good question, Hari. The companies that I've looked at tend to be more service-based, locally service-based companies. Yeah, I think that was my concern too, because as Preston and Stig mentioned, if it is a service,

Starting point is 00:43:12 then the owner-operator brings in a lot of context connections and talent, which might be the core value of the business. That might be lost when she sells to another party. Absolutely. That is a great comment. Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks, Harry. Yeah. The IP is the know-how of having the system and the protocol in place of how you manage it. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why Vantza is a game changer. Vantza automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI-powered platform. So whether you're prepping for a stock two or running an enterprise

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Starting point is 00:46:48 This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. All right. So I know Stig's got a question for us. So go ahead and fire away.

Starting point is 00:47:03 Yeah. So last quarter, I've been looking into momentum investing. And momentum investing is very different than value investing. And I'm sure you guys are aware of what I'm talking about, but just to give you a really brief explanation. So with momentum investing, you would buy a stock, say that the stock that had appreciated most in price the previous three months. And then you would just buy into that in the hope that it will continue to appreciate in price. And you will continue to rebalance. And whenever a stock stops doing that, you will just rebalance that and replace it with a new one.

Starting point is 00:47:37 So whenever I heard about this strategy the first time, I was like, this is the stupidest investing strategy you ever heard about. You just read my mind. Yeah. I was like, this is like technical analysis. It doesn't make any sense. It was data mining, whatever. But then I was speaking to Toby, which unfortunately couldn't be here today. And he was like, you know, Stick?

Starting point is 00:48:00 I think momentum investing is something you should really be open to. And I think that sometimes it might be even performing even. better than value investing. I was like, hmm, if Toby thinks it's an interesting idea, I'm not saying I will just go invest the, like my whole portfolio into the strategy, but like if someone like Toby says that I should take a closer look at it, I should probably do so. And it seems like I think the data I have is from 64 up to 2014. It seems like this strategy has really upperformed the market. It's actually upperformed the market more than value investing. And there was something I was so surprised about. So I would just like to hear your guys take on momentum investing. Is that

Starting point is 00:48:41 something that you would consider buying into? And why and why not? You know, if Toby was here, I'd say, that's a great idea, Toby. But since he's not here today, Toby, that's a horrible idea. So, Stig, I have a question. This is Harry. What is the average holding period strategy? And when you're talking about performance, are you considering after tax returns or before? Yeah, so that's a really great question. So you would rebalance every month. So one thing that you need to be aware of is that you have to pay a lot of cost doing that. Obviously, probably the most efficient way to do this would be using an ETF because then it's

Starting point is 00:49:19 more tax efficient. You don't have to pay tax whenever you're balancing. You only have to pay tax if you sell your ETF. But it's a great question, Harry. And the numbers I've seen is that you should probably add between 2% and 3% in extra cost if you're using momentum strategy, but even so it seems to be outperforming value investing, at least in the data I have been looking at, and I do want to say some of the data I've been looking at, they're also selling a product, which is very reliable, momentum investing, which is

Starting point is 00:49:48 very surprising. But I just want you guys take on the strategy. So I just want to walk through my thought processes. I'd be going through this. So let's say I have a company that I really like that I think would be a great momentum pick. And let's just call it company X. So I buy this. And so the strategy is, I buy it as it's trending up and I continue to hold it as it's trending up. So let's just say it's after the first week, it's gone up, it's up 10%, and then it has a 3% downturn. Is the trend dead at that point? Do I sell or do I buy more because the trend is going where? I think that's my question.

Starting point is 00:50:25 How do you know when the trend's done? How do you know I just don't like it? For me, it doesn't make a lot of sense. And I know people were going to say, well, you look at the 60 day moving average, the 90 day moving average and the 120. And when you start seeing them go inverted, the trend is dead. And maybe that's the strategy. But for me, I know I'd be an emotional mess looking at something that I can't take a long position in that is based on something that I expect a trend to go for a very long period of time. So I don't know. I want to hear what James has to say. Yeah. Tacking on to what Preston just said, Stig, is determining, I don't know, what your exit strategy is, but how automated is the strategy, right? And does that plan to alleviate or address Preston's concern? Yeah, so it's really automated. You don't look at the

Starting point is 00:51:12 company, you're not looking at, is there any competitive ventures or anything? You look at whatever stock that have appreciated most over a given time period. So like one month, it might be stock X and the next month it will be stuck Y, and you don't look at the intrinsic value at all. So as I understand it, you're basically holding a basket of these momentum stocks, right, for X period of time, right? So 30 days. And then you're selling everything, right? The good and the bad, completely buying a fresh new batch. Everything is that correct? Yeah. Yeah. And I think that's also some of the things that I'm struggling with. That's probably because I'm set in my ways about value investing. But I really like the idea of buying a dollar for 50 cents, right? So I would be buying,

Starting point is 00:51:52 say, Berkshire Holloway, great competitive advantage. And I would buy that cheap. And I would say, you know, it might be down 6% tomorrow, but I don't care about that. It's still undervalue. I know over time it will appreciate and convert to the intrinsic value. And I know there is a emot that I understand about this company. I think I just feel more comfortable about that. And I think that leads back to what Preston said before, like, how much stress can you handle? I think the problem I would have with momentum stocks is that I wouldn't know what to own. Like, I would own a calculator. It might be a great calculator that I own, but I would have no clue what it is that, yeah, what's really in my portfolio. And I think to have a strategy,

Starting point is 00:52:30 using momentum strategy, I think I need to redefine my paradigm of investing. You know, I think you guys have Patrick O'Shaughnessy on the show not too long ago too, right? And one of his major comments was saying that, hey, whatever strategy you land on, right, you really have to stick with it, right, for not just a short period of time, but for years, right, to really truly see a play out. And then, you know, he was also talking, I don't remember what the ratio was, right? Yeah, it was 70% value and 30% momentum. Okay.

Starting point is 00:53:00 And Stig, sorry, just a quick question, but what's driving the momentum in these stocks? Is it publicity and PR associated with the stock? Like, what's pushing it higher over that 30-day period? Is that people feel comfortable about buying a stock that is increasing in price. And there is a new stock every month or a bundle new stocks every month, increase in price. And that's what people like. And you'll just rebalance. I just want to highlight to the audience that Stig has the biggest smirk on his face as he just said that. No, well, it's just like, you know, I'm speaking to these, like, brilliant people. James mentioned Patrick Hesionese before, Topickele. I've spoken to Wish Gray about this. Like three people I really respect. Three people that comes from a background and hardcore value investing. So, I mean, that's not your average Joe stock investor. These guys really know what they're talking about. And all three of them saying, stick, you should look into momentum investing and really understand what is driving this. And there might be something for you. And I'm just inspired. I, I I haven't made any decision. I'm just inspired. I really do appreciate this conversation because I think this is a good conversation. And I think that Wes, Dr. Gray, is an extremely intelligent person. And some of his research is fantastic. And same with Toby. These guys are, I mean, they are brilliant. These guys are the leading guys in the industry as far as I'm concerned. But there's something I want to highlight with this whole discussion that came out. I forget who we were talking to. I think it was Patrick O'Shaughnessy who said this. He said that this strategy works best when you're pretty much kind of at the top of the market cycle and you're seeing value not working so well, that's whenever you're seeing this momentum strategy work really well. But he said it works the worst when you're coming out of that, when you're seeing it during the tightening phase and you're seeing the value approach really perform the best. That's when you see momentum strategy working the best.

Starting point is 00:54:48 I think that that trigger between those two points in time almost happen instantaneously. Like that happens over like a one week period. So if you're implementing this strategy, you could get caught with your pants down and you're just kind of screwed because now you're going from the thing that's giving you the best result to something that's giving you the worst result and it's happening in such a short duration of time. So that's where I'm really hesitant to just jump into this. But I do find it absolutely fascinating. I think that the back testing would be something that I'd have to really kind of see firsthand a whole lot more to see how they're executing it. I got Wes's new book, the Do It Yourself Investors guide that he wrote. And I haven't had a chance to read it yet,

Starting point is 00:55:27 but I've been flipping through it. And I'll tell you, I am so impressed with West Gray. That guy knows what he's talking about. It's phenomenal. Yeah. And what I think is really interesting reading his book is that he's saying, well, you might consider having a 50% value investing and 50% momentum stock. Because as Preston is saying, one strategy is better when it's bull and another strategy

Starting point is 00:55:48 is better when it's bearer. And if you don't know where you are, you can always just rebalance to 50% every now and then and you're done. Like again, so he would actually argue that, you know, it might seem like you under a lot of stress if you have momentum stocks. You might not be because you don't think about it. You just rebalance to that 50% without thinking about where the market is going to go. And you know, something that I think would be an interesting thing to research.

Starting point is 00:56:12 So he was talking about how sometimes this momentum strategy works better than value and vice versa. I bet you if you go back and you look at the credit cycle and you would line up, you know, look at an X, Y graph. I bet you, 70% of the time, which is the number that he suggested to use a value-based strategy, I bet you when you look at that credit cycle, 70% of the time is in that window where you've got credit expanding and not contracting. You've got about 70% of that time is where that's happening. That's probably why the value works best there. Where the other 30% is where you're going through that tightening phase and that contraction. And maybe that's where you're seeing the other strategy work better.

Starting point is 00:56:47 I don't know. I think that'd be something that'd be really interesting to kind of dig into and see why he came up with those numbers. But I'm curious to hear, I haven't heard from you calling from you, Harry. So, like, I know that you're both into like hardcore value investing. So what do you think about momentum investing and does it alter your opinion that someone like Toby, as you know, a member of mastermind group, but also someone like Patrick Johnson, she and West Gray, that they are too into value investing, but still think that momentum investing might be the way to go or at least a part of your portfolio? I think that anything that Toby says and recommends is something that you

Starting point is 00:57:22 have to look at in more detail and really consider. Because Toby, like, you have been saying, he's one of the smartest guys that you can ever meet. Now, would I do it? I think that's a different story altogether. It seems really risky. It seems like it's just tied almost directly to the psychology of the market at that point in time. And when you are relying entirely on the psychology of the market, I think that that is, that's a risky strategy. Just thinking about it logically. That's a great point, Boland. So, and I agree with Colin as well as Preston's take here. I feel Toby is a very smart investor.

Starting point is 00:57:57 However, his situation is different from mine. Toby or any other fund manager has to compete with other fund managers as well as index. They have to perform better than an index to produce that alpha. Whereas for me as an individual investor, I'm actually competing with my bank account. So I have a easy life compared to Toby. So I don't have to raise my stress levels to kind of follow a certain methodology. I can stick to whatever works for me personally. So I don't know whether momentum investing is better than value investing,

Starting point is 00:58:29 but I feel for me personally, the unit of stress or rather the return on unit of stress in value investing, the style I follow is much higher than if I would follow momentum investing. So based on that, I would lean towards value investing rather than momentum. Okay, guys, so really that completes our mastermind discussion. for the fourth quarter of 2015. We really had a fun time doing this. And James, it's so awesome to have you part of the group. Your comments were fantastic.

Starting point is 00:59:01 I was so excited to be able to bring one of our members of our forum onto the show. I know a lot of the other people that participate on the forum. If this is something you guys want to try to join us for a conversation, you really want to be on the show in the worst way. Shoot us a message and we'll see what we can do to try to make it happen in the future. But James, fantastic comments. Hari and Colin, thank you guys so much for your time. It's just so useful to hear some of your comments and just some of your ideas and most

Starting point is 00:59:27 importantly, some of your questions. We just treasure it. We really do. And I know that our audience really gets a lot out of it as well. So if you want to learn more about Colin Yablonski, go to inbound interactive.com. He can help you out with your local search engine optimization results. Hari Ramachandra, he has his website, Bits Business. He writes some of the best articles on just anything and everything that's business related.

Starting point is 00:59:50 He's located out in Silicon Valley. He's an executive over at LinkedIn, so Hari just comes with a wealth of knowledge from Silicon Valley. James Moroski, if you want to talk with James more, because you can tell he's got some fantastic questions. We're going to have a link in our show notes to James's Twitter profile. So if you want to shoot him any kind of questions, you want to get involved in our forum at the Warren Buffettforum.com. Or you can just go to the Investors podcast. There's a link there for our forum as well. But we just really thank James so much for really kind of standing our forum up and really getting it going in the right direction.

Starting point is 01:00:22 So thank you guys and we'll see you guys next week. Thanks for listening to The Investors Podcast. To listen to more shows or access to the tools discussed on the show, be sure to visit www.com. Submit your questions or request a guest appearance to The Investors Podcast by going to www.com. If your question is answered during the show, you will receive a free autographed copy of the Warren Buffett Accounting Book.

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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP 066 : Mastermind Discussion 4Q 2015 (Business Podcast)

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