We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP 080 : The Speed of Trust by Stephen Covey (Leadership Podcast)
Episode Date: April 3, 2016IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: Why costs are completely inversely correlated with trust in business. Why trusting other people is ultimately your choice no matter past experiences. How to find th...e right balance between blind trust and mistrust. How building a corporate brand and building trust is essentially the same. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. The Speed of Trust website. Stephen Covey’s book, “Speed of Trust: The One Thing That Changes Everything.” NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Bluehost Fintool PrizePicks Vanta Onramp SimpleMining Fundrise TurboTax HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Transcript
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We study billionaires, and this is episode 80 of The Investors Podcast.
Broadcasting from Bel Air, Maryland.
This is the Investors Podcast.
They'll read the books and summarize the lessons.
They'll test the waters and tell you when it's cold.
They'll give you actionable investing strategies.
Your host, Preston Pish, and Sting Broderson.
Hey, how's everybody doing out there?
This is Preston Pish, and I'm your host.
for The Investors Podcast, and as usual, I'm accompanied by my co-host, Stig Broderson, out in Denmark.
And today we've got a book that we read, and the name of the book is The Speed of Trust by Stephen M.R. Covey.
And so if you've listened to one of our episodes in the past, we read another book by Stephen
Covey, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. But this is not the same author, even though they have the exact same name.
This is his son that we read this time. The MR in the middle of his middle and
is what separates the two here so you can kind of keep them straight. But they have the exact
same name and Stephen M. Arcovy is the son. And he wrote this book, The Speed of Trust.
The subtitle is the one thing that changes everything. I want to say it could probably be
a little bit shorter maybe, but I think that the points in the book were phenomenal, absolutely
phenomenal and such a core fundamental thing for people to understand, especially if you are a
leader within an organization. I think that this book is.
an absolute must. So, you know, the whole theme of our show is we study billionaire. So one of the
things that we're really big on is endorsements from billionaires or whether they said that they
read the book or not. So here's some of the names of different people that I'm telling you,
there's like a laundry list of people that have endorsed this book. Steve Forbes from Forbes magazine,
he's endorsed this book. Kevin Rollins, who's the president's CEO of Dell. David Nealman,
he's the founder and CEO of JetBlue Airways. J.W. Marriott has endorsed this
book. And here's one for you that I really like. The sports star Michael Jordan has also endorsed
this book, who's a very high net worth person. So in short, a lot of people out there give the
regards to how good this book is. And after reading it, I can absolutely attest to the quality
of the content. Now, one thing I'll say is that I listen to the audio version of this book.
And I don't think that the audio version tracked with the actual hard copy of the book as much
is other books that we've done in the past. I'm curious, Stigg, did you do the audio version of
this as well? Yeah, I only did the audio version, so I would know the other thing. Now,
was the audio version kind of like a seminar of him talking? Is that what you had? Yeah,
I'd say it was. I had a Brits version, though. That's one of my good habits from his father.
Like, I tried to be very time efficient. I think it was very well structured. It was almost like
a textbook. So what we're going to do is we're going to go through chapter by chapter and
kind of talk to you about the book. Just real fast, a little bit about Stephen M.R. Covey, the son.
So he took over his father's company. And when he did that, he nearly doubled the revenues to,
and here I got some figures for you. So he grew the company so that it was doing revenues over
$110 million. The company was valued at about $2.4 million when his dad owned it. But then when
the son came in, the one who wrote this book, within three years, he grew the shareholder.
value to $160 million.
And then I think he sold it in a merger or something.
That's how they've got that valuation.
So he grew the company to, you know, epic levels under his leadership, almost like, you
know, a hundredfold or like 75 fold of where it originally started at.
So not only is he a great writer, he actually has, you know, a lot of track record
in business in order to create just epic and awesome returns.
So you're probably wondering how did he do that?
and a lot of it revolves around his ideas that are written in this book, the speed of trust.
So this is what this book is all about.
If there's one thing that a relationship, individual, team, company have in common, it's trust.
And when trust vanishes, it can completely destroy a nation, a team, or anything that's running successfully.
It could be even like a little small group.
But whenever that trust is developed and it's ultimately the potential,
to deliver prosperity and success in every piece of our life.
Trust is that one thing that has the ability to truly change everything.
And that's kind of what he's getting at with this book.
Yeah, we really like to talk about the title of the book, right?
So speed and trust and how they go hand in hand.
And I think whenever you really understand what this is the meaning,
I think you will probably look at your business and your organization if you're leader
differently.
And I really like this example.
And this is really not for me to say whether or not it's the right decision or the wrong
decision, but he's talking about trust in airports. And he's saying that prior to 9-11, he might go to
the airport and be there like 30 minutes before the takeoff. But now with domestic flights,
he might be there 90 minutes before and two to three hours when it's international. And it's
because there's another type of trust. And when trust goes down, speed goes down. So I think
that's a very nice way of illustrating his point. Well, and so to go a little bit further,
And I love that you brought that up because that's really kind of the main crux of the book is when things slow down, that means they cost more.
And when things speed up, they cost less.
And so his main premise of the book is that trust ultimately is an economic situation that allows a leader to create more value within his organization because they're able to execute and do things in a more timely manner.
And so he gets into a lot of details talking about how you can actually quantify the trust, the value
that trust is creating within your organization, which I found just really amazing concept and
something that I really never even thought about all that much.
So let's give a couple more examples because Stig talked about travel in the airline industry
and how, you know, when people weren't trusting each other, now the whole process takes a whole lot
more time. So let's talk about a husband and wife that are getting a divorce. So if a person's going
through a divorce and they trust each other, which typically is a really, you see this sometimes,
you see some people that can get divorced and they're just like, yeah, you know, I trust them.
They're not really that bad of a person. We just don't get along anymore. And we just don't really
want to be around each other. That situation is a lot less common than others. But when you do,
see that, that divorce goes quickly. That divorce typically ends in like, you know, probably a whole lot
less money spent between both parties. Now let's talk about a divorce that's really ugly.
The other person's a liar. No one trusts, and that's the key word, no one trusts anybody
anymore, no matter what, if they said the sun's out, then they would immediately think that it's
nighttime. And when that happens, those divorces take like a decade. It cost hundreds of thousands
of dollars. So there's one example. Sorry to use such a grim example, but I think it really illustrates
this idea of speed, money, being completely correlated and tied to trust. Stig, go ahead.
Did you have another example or do you want to comment on the divorce example?
Oh, no, not the divorce thing. But I think he actually mentions Warren Buffett a few times in the book.
And we're really big on Warren Buffett here.
And one of the reasons why it's actually the same reason that Stephen Covey, he really endorses
the way he works because he only worked with people he trusts.
And one example that comes to mind is his deal with Rose Blumkin.
And at the Nebraska furniture, Matt, Warren Buffett walked in and he asked,
Ros Blomkin, how much for your store?
And she said, 60 million.
And Ron Buffett said, let's do it.
And this is an amazing story.
Well, he probably had a figure in mind.
But I think the whole idea is that if he gave her $60 million in cash, she would get $60 million
in cash.
If they went through like an army of lawyers and they still agreed on $60 million in cash,
guess what?
She would not receive a $60 million, right?
And Buffett might be paying more in the end.
So this is just another like a business example of why trust is so important and why when you
don't need it, it's really just makes all the transaction costs superfluous.
So one other thing that I wanted to talk about was the speed of trust when you're
talking about a brand or a business. So when you go into Walmart and you're looking at an aisle
of DVDs and you don't know which one to choose, and you see one that has a Disney emblem on it,
let's say you're buying a video for your kids and you see that there's a Disney emblem on it.
And you don't know which one, but you know that that brand and that trust that you have with,
call it Disney, is going to speed up your purchase. You're going to have trust that you're going
to get a quality product. And what you're really talking about when you're talking about trust,
when you're talking about it from a corporate standpoint, you're talking about brand loyalty.
You're talking about something that is a relationship that you've established with a company or a
business and think about how fast you're able to make a decision.
The examples go on and on and on.
And I just personally really never thought of it a lot in that context of it being trust.
But after reading this book, I'll tell you, it was very enlightening to kind of hear all of his examples.
and the thing that I really liked is he then goes into how can you build trust and what are those
elements as key elements in order to build that trust. And so then that's the next thing that we'll
be talking about as we go further. All right. So in the second chapter, it's called the first wave
self-trust. And so the great thing about this is you can increase trust with other people. And he gives
four core elements in order to do that. So the first core element is integrity. So let me read all
four of them and then we'll kind of quickly discuss each one of them. So the first one is integrity.
The second one is intent, which we've talked a lot about intentions on this show. The third one is
capabilities. And then the fourth one is results. He says that those four things are what allow a
person to develop and harness this element of trust. And so the first one I think goes without saying
is integrity. So I would kind of like to talk about integrity a little bit. And, you know,
And the person that I really like to talk about when it comes to integrity is not somebody that you would ever expect, but it's Adam Smith, the writer of the wealth of nation.
So Adam Smith, everyone knows him as the economist.
I actually have more respect for Adam Smith for his theories on moral sentiments, which is the name of one of his first books that he wrote.
And he actually, Adam Smith would actually classify himself as a philosopher more than he would.
would an economist. And I think a lot of people don't know that. So in Adam Smith's book,
the theory of moral sentiments, one of the things that he talks about being the fundamental
building block to being a moral and a person of integrity is a person that has empathy for
other human beings. And so let's talk about this a little bit more. So if you were a person
that owned a store, let's just say a, you know, a Quickey Martyr, like one of these gas station stores.
And you paid for all that inventory and you had it all in there, like the potato chips and all that
kind of stuff is all in there and you owned it.
You have an appreciation for the cost and the money that it took for you to own all that
inventory and all that stock.
So whenever somebody comes into your store and they steal a bag of potato chips and they walk out
the front door and they try to do this so that you did, that you would have no idea.
as the store owner, you'd have no idea that they did it.
That person that stole from you lacks the empathy and the understanding of your vantage point.
They completely failed to acknowledge that you worked hard in order to buy that bag of potato chips.
All that person can see that thief.
All they can see is their own vantage point.
That's why they did it.
What Adam Smith gets at is that your integrity is based on your ability as an individual
to have empathy and understanding for other people outside of your own understanding.
So when you think of it in that context, if I can understand Stig's position on maybe,
call it anything, I'm going to be much more empathetic and I'm going to have a higher level
of integrity because I'm going to have these roadblocks that are going to prevent me from
doing bad things to another person because I have this larger universal knowledge and
understanding of what's actually happening around me and respect for maybe somebody else.
is hard work or labor that they performed. I like to highlight that when we're talking about
integrity because I think it helps people look at things from a different context. A lot of people
want to get into a discussion of when they talk about integrity, they want to talk about
something being right or wrong. And I think that maybe a better discussion is how would the
other person feel that maybe you're conducting these actions towards if you understood
things from their vantage point? I think that's a really fruitful conversation to have.
for you to think about before saying whether something's right or wrong.
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Back to the show.
Yeah, so I think the whole idea about intent, as a president said, we discussed this
like endlessly on the podcast, but it's always a good discussion.
discussions to talk about intent. And what Covey is basically saying is that it's okay to have an
agenda. We all have agendas, right? But you need to be upfront with that. Otherwise,
people won't trust you. And I just think of a request I got some months back from a broker.
And that broker asked if we were interested in having our content displaced on his website.
And obviously, we don't want our content to be displayed on any website in the world.
You know, that might be an awesome idea, but it should be a good side.
And so I went to the side and that looked somewhat legit.
And I thought, well, that could be awesome having, you know, embedded the podcast or some of the
blog post or because they had like a huge section with educational material in there.
And then we were just talking back and forth, shooting each other a few emails.
This might be a broker we could endorse.
I don't know.
But we never got to that part because I felt that I simply couldn't trust that person.
In the end, he wasn't interested in displaying any of the content.
that we had on his side, he just wanted us to make like a free ad for what they were doing,
which was just, it's just felt all wrong because his intent was wrong. If he approached me
another way and said, this is basically what we would like you to do. I might say yes.
I might say no. But at least we are speaking about the same thing and we can start trusting
each other in the relationship. So now let's imagine that that's a relationship that you were
forced because maybe you were working together and that now you have to continue that dialogue.
with that same person in the years that come because maybe they're in your workplace.
As soon as that trust barrier was broken, now when Stig would interact with that person,
let's just say he had to interact with him again in the future, his conversation is going to
be a lot more in depth.
He's going to ask more questions.
He's going to require more information before he acts on anything because he now has this
experience where trust isn't necessarily all that high.
So you can see how the speed of trust is slowing down.
That's what he's really getting at in the book when he talks about different examples.
So let's go to the next one, the next core element of trust, which is this is the third one and its capabilities.
I really like this.
So he says that if the intent is the root of the tree, your capabilities are the very branches that bear the fruit.
And so what he's getting at is let's say that somebody trusts you.
But then when it comes down to you actually performing your job and doing the things that you're supposed to do,
then you just totally fall on your face and really don't get it done.
the person's not going to trust you just because you have no ability to actually see the action through fruition.
And I'll tell you, this one's big for me is when you get around a person that's all talk and they can't actually execute and complete what it is that they're saying, I don't trust that person at all.
So that's such a core element.
And instead of beating it up and going further, I think everyone really gets at and kind of understands what that's getting at.
The final one that he has, which is very related to the capability, the capability addresses more of the person's potential in order to bear the fruits.
The last one is the actual results and what they actually created.
So let's say that at the end, they were supposed to give you a report, a five-page report.
Well, you got a three-page report, and there's grammatical errors all through it, and there's mistakes.
And so the person just, they might have the capability to write a great paper, and they might have the capability to actually proofread it, which they didn't.
So you're getting into what does the final product typically look like and what is the quality that they actually produce at the very end of the result.
So those are the four pieces.
The first one's integrity, the next one's intent, capabilities and results are the four elements that he says is really what wraps up a person who is creating trust everywhere that they go.
Stig, did you have any other points on the top fourth?
No, I just think I would like to add that you need to, you need to have all four of them.
He used the example of a family doctor.
You know, his intent might be right, and his integrity might be imperfect, but if you don't know what he's doing, you probably shouldn't let him be your surgeon.
That was his way of explaining it.
And I think if you're running it down, taking notes, or thinking about it, just think that you should have all four.
Obviously, you can start one place, but you really, really need to think of all for the course as one when it comes to building trust.
All right. So the third chapter in the book, it's called the second wave relationship trust.
And in this section, Kovie discussed about behavior in the second chapter, but he goes into a lot more detail here.
The second wave is also known as the relationship trust, and it revolves around the behavior.
So here he writes about 13 behaviors while providing examples.
He names these behaviors as trust accounts.
So every time you do something for, you know, in a perfect example would be the relationship that you have with your spouse, that's a trust account that you're building, you know, like my wife and I, if I go up there and I do the dishes or she does something with the kids or whatever the case might be, when you're doing these things to help each other out, you're building, you're drawing and you're putting credits and deposits into that trust account and you're drawing from it back and forth, back and forth.
When one person is basically doing everything and the other person is kind of taking from the other person, he describes that as kind of sucking the trust account dry.
And when that happens, that's when you're going to have some issues and you're going to have some problems.
He also gets into a little bit of a conversation where people that have like an ongoing relationship like a husband and wife, they don't necessarily keep tabs on where the trust account might be at at any given point in time.
It's just this overall feeling and sentiment that people have because it's just ongoing
relationship.
When you're at work, and maybe it's a person that you have a dealing with maybe three or four
times a year, this trust between each other and this reciprocation is much more accounted
for.
And I think that that's kind of an interesting conversation.
But back to these 13 behaviors.
So in the book he goes through in great detail, and we're not going to list all 13
or talk about all 13 here on the podcast.
But I will say this.
And our executive summary that we have typed up, we talk about all 13 in there.
And we go into much more detailed describing each one of these qualities in our executive summary.
So if you're not signed up on our email list, go to our email list, sign up.
It's really simple.
Just put your email address in there and your name.
And you will get these executive summaries that Stig and I write up.
They're about five pages long.
They go into detail outlining every single book that we read.
It's completely free.
It costs nothing.
We don't send out any marketing or spam.
These are the only things that we send out via email.
So if you sign up for that, you can benefit from seeing what those 13 behaviors are.
It's really fantastic.
He lays out all these different behaviors that are very beneficial for you to read through
and kind of really try to internalize.
I think my key takeaway is how the trust that you have with another person is really also a choice that you can make.
And I'm thinking about the latest job interview I went to like, what was it, like three years ago or something like that.
And I think it's very common in the States.
and it's definitely very common here in Denmark that you get all sort of questionnaires and you go through a lot of tests and then you measure your personality.
And apparently I have a 10 out of 10 in terms of trust.
And this is not like the more the better. It's not one of those.
I'm sure to get letters from now people saying I'm a prince of something. I just need to send them my I don't know.
Account number or something. I don't know. But if anything, 10 out of 10 might be a bit naive, I guess.
But, no, I think it's really interesting to be tested like that.
And does that mean that I never had any adversity and people always been nice to me?
I don't think so.
I had this experience, what was perhaps five or six years ago.
And it was a very close business partner.
And this is not my way of saying, yes, this is, I have a friend and then it's me or I have a business partner and that's Preston.
It was actually not Preston, but I had a very close business partner.
And we made a contract.
and it was really a contract that was open to interpretation.
And it was a written contract, but it was a written contract and kind of like a handshake.
And that's usually how I do contracts anyway.
And whenever I left the business, I really felt that it wasn't the right way.
And it wasn't like I couldn't say goodbye to my business partner or shouting, anything like that.
But I felt like I really trusted that person and the way I left the company.
I felt that my trust was basically broken.
And it actually took me a year to really cope with that and really to figure out what actually
happened.
Because whenever you trust a person, like really trust a person and you feel that that's misused,
it's not something you can just brush off your shoulder and just get on.
At least that's something I can't do.
And I had a lot of thoughts about should I trust another person again.
It almost sounds like love or something.
But when you are working every day with a business partner, it's your whole life.
And it's almost like having a spouse.
So whenever you feel like you're left, it's really something that affects you.
And it really took me a long time.
But I decided, and this is basically my point, sorry for taking so long on this.
But my point is really, you can make your choice that you want to trust other people again.
I think when it comes to business, there's really no way around that.
See what Preston I are doing.
Like, I have expenses.
I have revenue coming in.
And like Preston doesn't see any receipts from me. He just seems to me typing up an Excel sheet and saying,
this is, you know, a dead upstanding on your end on my end. And that's it. Because you can't really
have a partnership another way. You can't keep track on everything if you're a business partner or
our spouse for that matter. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
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All right.
Back to the show.
So I love the fact that you talked about this because I think it gets to something
that I don't necessarily find in the book, but something I want to discuss.
So when a person goes through this experience in their life that maybe they were treated in a manner that they don't trust another person, a lot of the times people will take that experience and hold on to it very tightly.
And when they're faced with an experience later on, let's just call it time now to trust somebody again, a lot of people choose to not trust because of their past experience.
and I can tell you that that's a very, I don't want to say that it's bad because sometimes
it might be a good thing to not trust somebody because maybe the parallels to what happened
before are there and exist.
Maybe you shouldn't trust this other person.
But what I will tell you is I think people need to work very, very hard at being objective
and separating a past experience from a present experience when the way that they're treating
other people and whether they're actually trusting or not because, and this is the last point,
and this is the third chapter, I'm sorry, the fifth chapter, where he talks about trust being
reciprocal.
So when I extend trust to Stig, he will then extend trust back to me.
And not only will he extend it back to me, but he'll also extend it to maybe other people in
his life because he's now receiving and kind of experiencing good, solid trust with good
fundamentals to it. And so the thing about trust is that it's a reciprocal thing that ripples
through an entire organization. So that's why I guess I say it's so important that if you
are this person that maybe has experienced a lack of trust in the past and you are now being
associated with new people, new experiences and whatever that might be, you have to look at every
single situation independently and you've got to look at it with a fresh set of eyes and realize
that you yourself, when you extend the trust and you initiate it, it's something that goes out there
and spreads within the people that are around you and then it comes back to you. And I think that
that's so incredibly important for people to understand, especially people that have been
burnt in the past and maybe trying to move forward. And let me tell you this. The book reads,
I mean, it's a fantastic book. I highly, highly recommend this book, especially for any leaders out there.
But the thing that I think people really need to understand is that Stephen Covey, and he says this numerous times, I'm not telling you just to go out and do blind trust. I'm not saying that at all. But what he is saying is maybe err on the side of trusting up front when it's risk that you can assume. And it's not like a catastrophic risk that you can't afford to take on. But trust upfront and extend that that olive branch of trust to the people around you. And what I think you're going to find is that not only
do you get it back, but you get it back in multiples. And you're just going to create this environment for yourself. But don't be stupid with the way that you trust. You have to be somewhat calculated about it. Is this, you know, am I just going to go out and give somebody my car that I don't even know to drive around? No, that's stupid. You know, like, that's really a dumb decision. But if it's, you know, somebody that you trust and, you know, here's the other thing, too. A person that is trustworthy will not put you in the situation that,
hey, can I borrow your car?
Because I don't have one and I don't want to tell you anything else about myself.
A person that's trustworthy will never put you in that situation.
So that's another kind of red flag that will go up.
Is this somebody I can trust?
Is this a situation that I would put another person in that I don't know or whatever?
Like reverse the roles.
And if it's something that you wouldn't do to yourself, then maybe that's something that would raise a flag that you say,
you know what?
Maybe I need to dig into this a little bit more and maybe not be as trust.
worthy with this person as maybe I need to be. It's a balance like anything in life. It's,
it comes down to a balance, but I think it's important for you to think about the speed of trust
and the cost of not being trustful whenever you're making decisions. So that's the book.
So what we're going to do right now is we're going to pull up a question from our audience for
anybody else out there. If you're listening to the question that we're going to play on the show,
and you can go to AsktheInvesters.com and you can record your question and get it played on the show.
If you get it played on the show, we will send you a free signed autograph copy of our book,
the Warren Buffett Accounting Book.
So right now what we're going to do is we're going to play a question.
Okay, so this question comes from Chris Polly, and this is a fantastic question.
I think you guys are going to like this one.
Hi, Preston and Stig.
This is Chris from Long Island, New York.
I listen to your podcast about four times a week as I drive to and from school.
I love it.
I just came across it, and it's great.
Thank you.
My question today is about confirmation bias.
I read mostly non-mainstream media.
And I keep reading about falling EPS numbers and downturns in the economy, and I completely agree with it.
However, when I read an article in the mainstream media, and they go on to say that the economy is strong,
the markets are going up, the job numbers look great, I just can't help but think that that is just crazy.
So I worry about my confirmation bias and how does one not be successful?
to that. I don't know. Maybe you have some insight into how to not be susceptible to one's own
confirmation bias. Thank you very much. Wow. So this question is awesome, in my opinion. The fact that
you're thinking about confirmation bias, in my opinion, probably puts you ahead of what,
stig, 99% of other people out there. Yeah, easily. Because most people don't even realize that they're
a victim of confirmation bias. So the fact that you're acknowledging that you're acknowledging that
it exists. And then you're trying to figure out a way to combat it, I think is just an awesome
question, an awesome highlight to our audience. So I'll tell you, I'm aware of confirmation bias,
but I think I do a really poor job at trying to ensure that I'm not being influenced by it.
Now, now that I'm answering this question, I guess I'm thinking through ways that I could
combat that. So this is my approach, at least. I think a person needs to start with a thesis.
And I think the thesis needs to be, like you mentioned in your question, you said, you know, I'm reading these articles and I think that the market is going in a bad direction because earnings are going down and whatever.
So I think you start with the thesis. Is the market condition improving or is it getting worse? Is credit contracting or is it expanding? It's kind of like the way I look at market cycles. So if that's your thesis, now let's find the supporting evidence on both sides of the fence to try to either confirm or deny whatever that thesis is.
So maybe, you know, earnings or contracting would be one thing that would say, hey, this market's going to be trending downward.
Is credit contracting?
Well, you could look at high yield bonds or the interest rates on high yield bonds going up or going down.
You could lay out all these different metrics.
And before you go searching for the metrics, you want to list these things out on your own, on probably a white piece of paper and say, these are all the things that would confirm whether something is getting worse or getting better.
And then what you do is you go out and you try to find the statistical evidence for one thing or the other.
And that basically separates the opinion of other people versus your own opinion and your own research and taking the actual facts that support what it is that you're looking for.
But I think you have to have that framework.
I think you have to say, hey, this is what it would take for me to believe that this is the actual situation.
Then whenever you're out there reading these articles that are favorable or not favorable.
favorable, you can kind of add those to where they fit inside of your framework and all your
statistics that prove your thesis of whether it's true or not. I love the question. This is a
fantastic way to look at things and to really kind of account for risk of yourself. So I'm curious
to hear what Stig has to say on this one. I think it's very important that you build that
thesis up by facts. And whenever you're reading these articles, think about what is a fact and what
as an opinion. It's two very different things. And I know that this might be a hard task because
it might still be a fact that they have dropping earnings. Yes. But now you're reading different
opinions about when does it bounce or does the earnings bounce in the first place. And obviously,
that would be the struggle. So you will have to go back. And I would say that at least that's
the process I'm using. You have to go back and speak to the right people about that.
I think one of the things that confuses me whenever I'm following the media is I don't know who to
So I have some people that I discuss with and that I really trust, especially when it's not
facts based, when it's based on opinion.
I am approaching people that not only do I know I can trust, but they will also tell me when
I'm wrong.
I'm basically bringing a thesis to them and then I'm saying this is the three best reasons
why this thesis is correct and this is the three best reasons why it's wrong and I go from
And, uh, all right, Chris, so we really enjoyed that question. For anybody else out there, remember, go to asktheinvestors.com. You can record your question. We'll send you a free signed copy of our book, Chris. So thank you so much for that very intelligent question. That wraps up our episode. Again, if you want to guys want to sign up on our email list to get the executive summary. Also, we listen to all of our books through audibles. If you use any of the links on our website for audibles, you can listen to your very first book for free. So if you guys want to listen to this book, the speed of trust for free, use our link and sign up for audibles. And you can listen to.
it on your car ride into work or wherever you guys have free time to do it. So that's all that
we have for you guys and we'll see you next week. Thanks for listening to The Investors Podcast.
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