We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP 097 : China and the History of the Dollar (Business Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 We study billionaires, and this is episode 97 of The Investors Podcast. Broadcasting from Bel Air, Maryland. This is the Investors Podcast. They'll read the books and summarize the lessons. They'll test the waters and tell you when it's cold. They'll give you actionable investing strategies. Your host, Preston Pish and Stig Broderson. Hey, hey, hey, how's everybody doing out there?

Starting point is 00:00:31 This is Preston Pish, and I'm your host for The Nish. investors podcast and as usual I'm accompanied by my co-host Stig Broderson out in Denmark. Today we're joined by a guest that I am ecstatic to have on our show. And his name is Richard Duncan. Richard appears frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and the Bloomberg television channel. He's been a guest speaker at the World Economic Forum, the World Knowledge Forum, and Seoul, South Korea, and many others. And so Richard got his start as a stock analyst in Hong Kong back in 1986.

Starting point is 00:01:07 And since that time, he's held some really tremendous jobs. Like he's worked at the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF. And he currently works as an economist for Black Horse asset management. And he also has his own company, MacroWutch, which is Richard Duncan Economics.com. So Richard is the author of numerous books to include his newest, which is the New Depression, to break down to the paper money economy and the dollar crisis, which was an international bestseller.

Starting point is 00:01:36 So the reason we're so excited to have Richard on our show is because Stig and I run this forum, the Warren Buffett Forum. And we've been talking a lot of macro on our show and we get just the best handoffs from the people that listen to our show. And we had one individual on our forum. He said, if you want to learn macro,

Starting point is 00:01:54 he's like there's one person you have to read. And that is Richard Duncan. And I'm reading your book and I am just totally blown away at the content in your book. And so I send an email to Stig and I say, Stig, I know we do audiobooks because we're strapped for time. We really struggle to do hardback books.

Starting point is 00:02:15 So most everything we read is all audibles or audiobooks when we're driving in the car. I said, Stig, I know this isn't an audio book, but you have to read this. And so Stig starts reading it. And he writes me back, like, we got to get this guy on the show. I said, I know we got to get this guy on the show. So Stig reached out to Richard and Richard, we're so grateful for you to take time out of your busy day to talk to us about some of these ideas and these concepts because I know for a fact our audience is going to benefit from this tremendously. So thank you, Richard, for coming on our show. Preston Stig, thank you for inviting me on the show. It's nice to meet you guys.

Starting point is 00:02:55 It's fantastic to meet you in person, Sier. So tell us about your background. Why did you become so fascinated by financial markets? I'm American. I grew up in Kentucky and went to Vanderbilt. And after Vanderbilt, kind of by chance, I ended up backpacking around the world for a year. So in early 1984, I spent a couple of months in Asia and Thailand and Malaysia and Singapore. And I realized it was booming economically and that it was the land of opportunity.

Starting point is 00:03:25 Go east, young man, was very clear. So I went back to business school at Babson College for my MBA. And when I finished that in 86, I flew to Hong Kong and found a job. Really lucky timing. Hong Kong's economy was growing by 13% that year. The first 12 months I was there, the stock market went up 100%. I found a job with a local Hong Kong Chinese stockbroking company as a securities analyst. And I worked there for them for a couple of years in Hong Kong doing research on the listed Hong Kong company.

Starting point is 00:03:57 a number of different industries. And then they sent me to Singapore for a year to run a small research department there. I did research on the Singapore companies. And after a year, again, in Hong Kong, they sent me to Bangkok to be the head of their research team in Bangkok in 1990. And so by the time I turned 30,

Starting point is 00:04:19 I had lived in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand looking at equities as a securities analyst. And when I reached Bangkok, I was the head of research and with a very large team of analysts working for me. So I could do anything that I wanted. And by that time, I became more and more interested in economics and what was driving the economies. I'd seen a number of different economies at that point. So I started doing a lot of reading to try to understand what drove the macro side of the markets. And that's the thing that really fascinated me because at that point,

Starting point is 00:04:56 all of these economies were just on fire. Thailand was growing by 10% a year. Thai stocks were the stock market was the flavor of the month for all of the international fund managers. And so I was in a fantastic opportunity to see a number of different economies going through similar cycles, but not exactly the same cycle. So I became very interested in macroeconomics. And as time went by, after a few, few years of this incredible, fundamentally quite solid economic boom in Thailand, the Thai boom started turning into a bubble. And by 1994, it was clear things were running completely out of control here. And I knew from the work my analysts were doing that it wasn't just the property

Starting point is 00:05:48 sector that was booming in that way. Every industry was expanding its capacity, doubling the capacity, quadrupling capacity. And it became pretty obvious, pretty quickly, that there just wouldn't be enough purchasing power in Thailand to absorb all that capacity. So at that point, I started doing a lot of reading of all the classical economic theory to try to understand what was going on here. And actually, I became quite bearish. Thailand's economy, I started writing reports saying it would slow down to just six or seven

Starting point is 00:06:21 percent GDP growth, whereas all of my competitors were, sticking with a double-digit growth forecast. So it was in Bangkok, in Thailand, that I had my education in bubbleomics. The Thai economy went into crisis in 1998. The GDP contracted by 10%. And something similar happened in South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Thai stock market fell 95% in dollar terms from peak to troth. So it was really a wonderful opportunity for me to see this in such a short space of time,

Starting point is 00:06:59 this extraordinary boom and bus cycle and to have the time to think about it and to try to understand what was causing it. And what was causing it was credit. I love it. So that's your background. So now it all makes sense why you were so immersed into this and trying to understand it because of your firsthand experience of seeing all that. So here's the thing that this episode.

Starting point is 00:07:22 is really titled around China and understanding the credit growth and everything that's going on in China right now because that's a huge hot item. But before we get there, we really have to start off understanding the dollar and a little bit of a history lesson. So we've asked Richard to really kind of go into depth and talk us through this history lesson of the dollar and what has created these circumstances for what we're seeing that's happening globally and more importantly what's happening over in China. right now. So we're getting to that. We're getting to present-day China, but we're not getting there right now. We're going to start off with a history lesson. And Richard's going to sit back. We're going to put our mics down, Stig and I, and we're just going to listen with you in the audience on what Richard's about to teach us. So he's going to start off back in 1968 when the U.S. came off the gold standard. What I realized watching the Thai economy boom and bubble and then bust was that

Starting point is 00:08:21 the thing that was driving it was an enormous amount of foreign credit coming into Thailand and going on deposit in the Thai banks. And that led to rapid deposit growth. So the banks had all of the deposits and they had to lend out these deposits in order to earn money so they could pay interest on their deposits. So that forced very rapid credit growth. And so I started thinking about where all of this credit, foreign credit was coming from. I had studied economics and literature at university, both.

Starting point is 00:08:53 I enjoy the literature and I did the economics because I wanted to do the job one day. So I'd always enjoyed reading. And when I was traveling around the world, I read more and more history books. So once I started doing work in economics, I read a lot of economic history. And what I realized was, well, the economy, the global economy now works in a completely different way than it did. under the Bretton Wood system. The Bretton Woods International Monetary System was set up after the end of World War II,

Starting point is 00:09:27 the R-Side-1, and they tried to recreate something very similar to the gold standard in the Breton-Wood system. Now, this may sound a little dull initially, but it's very important to understand how the gold standard used to work. Let's go back, for example, 150 years ago, if England had a big trade deficit with France,

Starting point is 00:09:52 then England's gold would literally have been put on a ship and sent over to France to pay for the deficit. And since gold was money, the only money, basically, England's money supply would have contracted very sharply. And so they would have had less money. They would have gone into a severe recession. Unemployment would have gone up. And they would have had deflation.

Starting point is 00:10:15 The opposite would have happened in France. France would have had more gold. The credit would have expanded. Their economy would have boom. And they would have had more inflation. So pretty soon, the rich French would start buying more cheap English goods. And the poor unemployed English would stop buying so many expensive French goods. And trade would come back into balance.

Starting point is 00:10:40 Big trade imbalances were impossible. That's the way international trade works. And this is, and I'm sorry to interrupt, Richard, but this would be completely based on the fact that the conversion rate from that paper currency to the gold would remain fixed. Because if they would manipulate that, then that would cause more wrinkles. But we're assuming that that ratio that the banks would hold, call it 30% backing, gold backing, would remain intact between both countries just for simplicity of our example here. Is that correct? That's right. In those days, governments didn't create paper money.

Starting point is 00:11:14 The banks would sometimes issue paper money, but the paper money just represented so much gold. When World War I started, all of the European countries went to war with each other, and they didn't have enough gold to fight the war in 1914. So that's when they went off the classical gold standard. And all of the European government started printing a lot of paper money that they needed to use to finance all of the government bonds, all of the government deficits. spending that they were using to fight the war, to buy war material, feed the soldiers. So all of the paper money created during World War I and all of the government debt issued

Starting point is 00:11:56 during World War I, that created a worldwide global economic boom called the Roaring 20s. And the 20s, by all accounts, were fun, but in 1930, all of the credit couldn't be repaid and the international monetary system collapsed. international banking system collapsed, global trade collapsed. The policymakers at that time believed in laissez-faire and capitalism. They really had no idea what to do. And so everything collapsed. The world went into depression.

Starting point is 00:12:28 Depression lasted 10 years. During that time, Germany took over Europe. Japan took over most of Asia. World War II started. And at that point, the depression still going on. At that point, then the United States government increased U.S. government spending, not by 9%, not by 19%, not by 90%, by 900%. And that extraordinary increase in government spending ended the Great Depression. And when the war was over, England and the United States tried to create something quite similar to the gold standard.

Starting point is 00:13:09 The problem was at that point, our side had all the gold. And you can't trade in a world where only one side has all the gold. So they created the Bretton Wood system in which dollars would serve as the new international currency. But the dollars would be backed by gold at $35 an ounce. And other countries, if their central banks accumulated dollars, they had the right to convert those dollars into U.S. gold at $35 an ounce. And that was the system from 1945 up until 1971. But during the 60s, the U.S. started spending too much money on the Vietnam War abroad and on social welfare programs, President Johnson's Great Society programs at home. And the U.S. banks and corporations started

Starting point is 00:14:02 investing a lot of dollars, particularly in Europe. So a lot of dollars left the United States. They were accumulated by governments overseas, and those governments abiding, along with their right to do so, they converted those dollars into U.S. gold. So during the 1960s, the U.S. lost half of its gold reserves. And by 1971, there were four times as many dollars overseas as we had gold available to convert it into. And so in 1971, at that point, we were bleeding gold. And President Nixon, he could have brought about a big recession in the United States so that the Americans would consume less and import less. But that would, of course, cost him his reelection. So instead, he stepped on the economic accelerator and just made things worse.

Starting point is 00:14:51 And he said, okay, sorry, world, we told you you could convert your dollars into gold, but now you can't. And that was the end of the Bretton Wood system. Okay, so that happened in August of 1971. That was the breakdown of the Bread and Woods International Monetary System. And in fact, it had been breaking down before them. Because up until 1968, there was a law, the U.S. Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, by law, they had to maintain gold backing for every dollar that they issued. At that point, they had to have at least 25% gold backing for every dollar.

Starting point is 00:15:33 But by that time, the U.S. gold reserves had shrunk so much that they hit the point where they couldn't issue any more dollars because they didn't have enough gold. So President Johnson asked them Congress to change the law so that there would no longer be this legal requirement for the Fed to back dollars with gold. And Congress did change that law in 1968. So from 1968, there was no longer any gold backing for the dollar domestically. And in 1971, there was also no longer any backing internationally either. So at that point, the world was in shock. The international monetary system had collapsed, and no one knew what was going to happen next. And they had hoped to put together a new one or revise it somehow and make it work.

Starting point is 00:16:22 Because under the Bretton Wood system, currencies were all pegged to each other at a fixed exchange rate. currencies did not move up and down. And also under the Bretton Wood system, trade between countries was in balance. People were terrified about what would happen. And no one quite knew what would happen. Well, one thing that happened right away, very soon thereafter, is we started having very high rates of inflation. And we had the oil shock. Oil prices quadrupled.

Starting point is 00:16:52 And then they quadrupled again. And this wouldn't have been possible if we'd been on a gold standard, the Bretton Wood system, the U.S. wouldn't have had enough gold to pay for the oil. The oil wouldn't have gone higher and stayed higher. But under this new system, U.S. didn't have to pay with gold anymore. It could just pay with paper dollars or treasury bonds, denominated in paper dollars. And so trade started to become unbalanced for the first time in history. And by the early 1980s, the United States started running truly very large trade deficits

Starting point is 00:17:25 for the first time in history. And by the mid-1980s, the U.S. trade deficit was equal to 3.5% of U.S. GDP, which was unlike anything the world had ever seen before. And most of this deficit was with Japan. So Japan had a very large trade surplus with the United States. So Japan was receiving not gold, but it was receiving dollars. And but still, the dollars were almost as good as gold.

Starting point is 00:17:55 And they started going into Japan's economy because of Japan's big trade surplus with the U.S. And those dollars went into Japan's banks and caused rapid deposit growth, just like in France, in my earlier example, the trade surplus country. So more and more deposits. So the Japanese banks started having to lend out more and more credit. And this set off an extraordinary credit boom in Japan. And by 1989,

Starting point is 00:18:25 there was such an extraordinary economic bubble in Japan for this reason, because of all of the dollars going into Japan, that the stock market was trading on 100 times PE multiple. The property prices had gone through the sky. The park around the imperial palace in Tokyo

Starting point is 00:18:46 was more valuable than California. And then the Japanese bubble popped, as every bubble ultimately does. And the reason that the bubble grew so big is because it went on and on. The surplus kept getting larger and larger. And the U.S., unlike England, it didn't deflate. It didn't run out of gold. It could keep buying and buying using paper money or government bonds denominated in paper money. So this trade imbalance caused Japan to turn into an economic bubble, and Japan's bubble popped. Japan's economy today is no larger than it was in 1993

Starting point is 00:19:25 if you don't adjust for deflation. So next, in the mid-80s, there was the Plaza Accord. They tried to bring the U.S. trade deficit back under control. Japan, Germany, G7, maybe the G5 at the time, reached an agreement to devalue the dollar. The dollar devalued by 50% against the yen and the mark in the next couple of years after 1985, 87. And that devaluation brought the U.S. trade back into balance by 1990.

Starting point is 00:20:03 But then in 1990, China started really entering the global economy. And Asia entered the global economy with their cheap workforce. So the U.S. trade deficit started growing. again. And what I saw living in Thailand from 1990 to 96, I saw extraordinary amounts of dollars coming into this little country, and it blew Thailand into a bubble. And in 1997, when the bubble popped in Thailand, it turned out that it wasn't just Thailand, but it was also Malaysia and Indonesia and Korea. This was the Asia crisis. And all of these colonies went into extreme shock and it required the IMF to bail them out with very large IMF rescue funds, IMF Joint

Starting point is 00:20:50 Bank World Bank Rescue Funds. And again, it was just a lot of foreign dollars coming into these economies blowing them into a bubble. The U.S. trade deficit continued to become larger and larger, and it became larger and larger particularly with China. China's trade surplus grew and grew. And by 2006, the U.S. trade deficit had grown to be $800 billion. That was 6% of U.S. GDP. And, or put differently, that was $2 million a minute. The U.S. was going into debt to the rest of the world. So, of course, as the U.S. trade deficit became larger, the rest of the world's trade surplus became larger. They were selling $800 billion more to the U.S. and the U.S. was selling to them.

Starting point is 00:21:41 So this was extraordinarily fantastic for our trading partners and for the global economy. The global economy grew $800 billion more than it would have otherwise that year with a very big multiplier on top of that. So the system that came after the Bretton Wood system, there was no new international conference that decided on a new international monetary system. They could never figure out how to make it work. So what came afterwards, it just evolved. You could say naturally.

Starting point is 00:22:13 Everyone was free to do what they thought was in their best interest. So this post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, I believe, is best described as the dollar standard. Because it is the U.S. dollar that is flooding the world as a result of our U.S. trade deficit, throwing dollars out into the global economy. And so as long as the U.S. trade deficit became larger and larger. every year. The global economy boomed and boomed and boomed right up until 2006. And when the U.S. went into crisis in 2008, it corrected very sharply from $800 billion at its peak to less than $400 billion. So when the U.S. went into crisis, the U.S. stopped importing so much from the rest of the world. And the rest of the world also went into crisis for that reason. Now, there's one

Starting point is 00:23:04 another very important element to this story. Under the bread and wood system or the gold standard, governments could not print money. Gold was money. Governments had nothing to do with it. But once the bread and wood system broke down, governments were pretty much free to do what they wanted, and currency started floating against one another. And it didn't take our trading partners very long to understand, for instance, the Japanese central bank to print the yen from thin air and use that money for yen to buy the dollars coming into Japan to hold down the exchange rate. Because if the Japanese exporters were selling a lot of goods in the U.S., they were getting paid in dollars. They took the dollars back to Japan.

Starting point is 00:23:53 They wanted to convert them into yen so they could spend them at home. But if they'd done that in a free market, the yen would have appreciated very radically, and that would have killed Japanese exports and the economy. So the central bank intervened. They printed yen. They used the yen to buy these dollars at a somewhat fixed exchange rate to hold down the value of the yen. And so in this way, the Japanese exporters could convert their dollars into yen, and spend them on anything they wanted.

Starting point is 00:24:29 But the Japanese central bank ended up buying what turned out to be eventually more than a trillion US dollars that the Bank of Japan obtained by printing money from thin air and buying the dollars. These were Japan's foreign exchange reserves. And once the Bank of Japan, I'm using Japan because they did it first in the 80s, Once the Bank of Japan had accumulated a trillion U.S. dollars, well, they had a few choices. They could have buried under Mount Fuji. They could have burned this trillion dollars, or they could have taken the trillion dollars and invested in U.S. dollar denominated assets like U.S. government bonds and corporate bonds

Starting point is 00:25:14 and stocks and the Rockefeller Center and golf courses all over Hawaii. And that's what they did. So this was paper money creation on a previously unimagined scale, starting in the 80s, but growing exponentially ever afterwards, more or less exactly in line with the U.S. trade deficit. But they've still, to this day, they have a very large trade surplus with the U.S. and the world. But the trade surplus is not owned by the government. That money is not owned by the government. The manufacturers get to keep all the trade surplus.

Starting point is 00:25:50 money, because the Bank of Japan only keeps the dollars that they buy by printing money. So these were Japan's foreign exchange reserve, and they still have them. But later on, China surpassed Japan as the largest exporter to the U.S. And largest trade surplus with the U.S. when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the United States reconsidered its relationship with China. Up until then, China had been a communist Cold War enemy, and we didn't trade with China. But after communism started collapsing, the idea was, okay, let's let them sell us some stuff and maybe they'll become capitalist. In 1990, China didn't have a trade surplus with the U.S.

Starting point is 00:26:42 but it didn't take long for China's trade surplus to grow and grow and grow and grow and explode. It became enormously large. Last year, China's trade surplus with the U.S. was $370 billion, a billion dollars a billion dollars a day. So here you have another story, and you know, the same story again. Chinese manufacturers sold their goods in the United States. They received dollars. They took the dollars back to China. more and more and more of them.

Starting point is 00:27:15 They wanted to convert them into Chinese Riemann B or Yuan. But if they converted all those Rindman B into Uan into dollars, Chinese currency would have quadrupled in value. And that would have stopped China's export machine and stopped China from growing. So China's central bank, the PBOC, the People's Bank of China, they began printing money from thin air. And they bought all of these dollars coming into China.

Starting point is 00:27:46 So when the Chinese exporters converted their dollars into renminbi, Bank of China bought them at a fixed exchange rate. So the currency wouldn't appreciate. And so by any definition of the word manipulation, this was manipulation of their currency. They kept their currency from appreciating. If they had not done this, the Chinese currency would have appreciated extraordinarily.

Starting point is 00:28:12 and their trade surplus would have stopped growing. So in this way, China accumulated $4 trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves by printing the equivalent of $4 trillion worth of Chinese yuan. And it wasn't just China and Japan, but many of the other countries around the world that we trade with did the same thing. So total foreign exchange reserves grew to $12 trillion in total. And what that means is that the central banks of our trading partners printed $12 trillion from thin air.

Starting point is 00:28:46 Just between the year 2000 and 2014, it went from $2 trillion to $12 trillion. So that's $10 trillion of fiat money creation in a 14-year period. This was fiat money creation on a scale Adam Smith would have found completely unimaginable. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right, I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo

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Starting point is 00:33:11 All right. Back to the show. And Richard, it seems like all these problems, well, partly the stem from the expansion of credit, but also stems from the account deficit in the US. So would it be correct to say that if the Americans would spend less money and then transition into having a surplus instead of a deficit, that the US could basically just turn the tables and the US could start to manipulate their currency

Starting point is 00:33:40 the same way as the Japanese and the Chinese. Is that a, I wouldn't call it a solution because clearly this is a currency war. But to see what I'm going with this, would that be the best way of fixing the problems with currency manipulation from the US? That's a very important idea to think about. Let me just conclude on that last point, though, that once China had accumulated the $4 trillion, of foreign exchange reserves. As they accumulated it,

Starting point is 00:34:09 they bought more and more U.S. dollar-denominated assets like treasury bonds and corporate bonds and stocks. And so that pushed up the price of the U.S. government bond. And when the bond prices go up, the yields go down. So the interest rates went lower and lower and lower. And also because the Chinese goods were made with $5 a day labor, they were very inexpensive. So we had disinflation.

Starting point is 00:34:36 The inflation rates went lower and lower and lower and interest rates went lower and lower and lower. And total foreign exchange reserves in the world grew to $12 trillion through fiat money creation. Now not all of these reserves were U.S. dollars, but I would say 75% of them were. The other trade deficit countries like England would have also, so there would have been pounds in the foreign exchange reserves, all the trade deficit countries would have thrown off their currency and they would have been accumulated as foreign exchange reserves. So this massive amount of investment of these foreign exchange reserves back into the United States, that blew the U.S. into a bubble. It helped finance the bonds that were being issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie and Freddie borrowed trillions of dollars, a large part of which came from foreign central banks.

Starting point is 00:35:30 and then Fannie and Freddie used that cash to buy mortgages, which pushed up property prices and created the property bubble. And meanwhile, interest rates were so low that that was fueling the property bubble. Alan Greenspan tried to increase the U.S. interest rates in 2004 and 2005 to cool down the property bubble. He increased the federal funds rate. I think it was 17 times, but the 10-year bond yield didn't follow the short-end of the yield curve up. The 10-year bond yield kept going down. And some pesky senator said,

Starting point is 00:36:06 Chairman Greenspan, you've increased the federal funds rate 17 times. Well, but the 10-year bond yield isn't going up. It's going down. Why is that? Mr. Greenspan, I think, lied and said, I don't know. It's a conundrum. But he must have known that his counterparts and the other central banks around the world were printing a lot of money and buying U.S. government bond, pushing up their price and pushing down their yield. So in other words, the trade imbalance not only blew the trade surplus countries into bubbles, but as those trade surplus countries printed their own currency and accumulated dollars and reinvest those dollars into U.S. dollar denominated assets, it also blew the U.S. into a bubble. And the bigger the U.S. bubble became, the more money the

Starting point is 00:36:51 Americans had to buy things from China and our other trading partners. And so this is how the dollar standard first created this great economic boom, and now the dollar standard boom has become a dollar standard bust. Now, to answer your question, you need to think about who benefited from this arrangement. The Chinese Communist Party leaders all became very wealthy. A billionaire class emerged. A very large millionaire class emerged. Hundreds of millions of people went into the middle class and hundreds of millions of very poor Chinese farmers got to work in factories at $5 a day, maybe as much as $8 a day now, which radically improved their lifestyles. The only downside in China was horrible environmental degradation.

Starting point is 00:37:41 Now, in the U.S., certain groups benefited and certain groups lost. For instance, the U.S. industrialists. The reason U.S. corporate profit margins are so wide now is because U.S. US corporations move their factories out of Michigan and into Guandong. In Michigan, they had to pay people $200 a day to build an automobile. In China, they could pay them less than $10 a day. So their labor cost collapsed by 90 percent, and their profit margins expanded. So the industrialists were all in favor of this new economic relationship with China.

Starting point is 00:38:21 And so were the U.S. bankers. The bankers also supported it. And as we know, they supported it because more debt grew in the United States and the bigger the financial markets became, the more of the banks earned. And consequently, the relatively high paying factory jobs ceased to exist. The people who would have worked in factories had to move into the service sector, which typically paid much less and generally put downward pressure. So U.S. wages have been stagnant now for decades. and middle class is shrinking, and we have much greater income inequality than we've had since at least 1929. And this stems from this economic relationship with China, which some people refer to as

Starting point is 00:39:06 Chimerica. But so it wasn't just a matter of China taking advantage of us. The wealthiest classes in the United States were fully on board for this new arrangement, and they benefited from it enormously. So Richard, I want to go back to this idea that you were talking about with Alan Greenspan in like 2005-ish time frame where you're saying that he was raising interest rates. He was raising interest rates as the Fed was trying to raise these rates, but they were remaining stagnant and not really going anywhere. And they were asking why was this happening? And it really gets to the main theme that I really took away from your book. And it comes down to this idea of Fiat money creation has actually created these account surpluses in China and Japan and other places.

Starting point is 00:39:53 And you show this in your book through diving into the Fed's capital flows that you tracked and you pulled this straight from the Fed's books where you look at the flow of money that comes in and comes out of America and where does it go? And when you look at that and you see what's driving these outflows from America, it's almost a one-for-one correlation, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it's almost like a one-for-one correlation. In China, if they create a billion dollars of fiat currency, they then, it turns into a billion dollars of account surplus for them in the long run.

Starting point is 00:40:33 After it materializes, it eventually turns into that account surplus. So it's not that they're better savers, and you debunk Bernacki's claim that it's a saving surplus. It's not that. It's actually, they created this much fiat currency and it immediately turns into account surplus. So as these countries are sitting on this account surplus, call it China's $3 or $4 trillion. As they're sitting on that, they have to do something with that money. So where are they going to take that money and what are they going to invest it in? Well, when you look at the U.S. debt market, the treasuries, the 10-year treasury, the 30-year bonds, whatever, you name it, They have to buy something.

Starting point is 00:41:13 Well, that market is absolutely huge. I don't think people realize how big that debt market is for U.S. debt. And so you got China, you got Japan, you got all these countries that are buying up this 10-year treasury at ridiculous levels. And when they do that, they bid up the price. They push the yield down because those are inversely correlated. Look at the 10-year treasury right now. We literally just hit all-time low on the yield. It's the lowest it's ever been, okay, which means the price is sky high for 10-year yields.

Starting point is 00:41:47 Everyone's buying them. And the reason they're buying them is because you got all these countries with these surpluses, which were completely created out of fiat currency, and that money has to go somewhere. They have to invest it in something that's better than holding cash. They can get a 1.5 whatever percent return right now by buying the 10-year treasury. They're not going to sit on the cash. Well, this is very important economically and politically because, as you said, Ben Bernanke said the reason that they couldn't make the U.S. interest rates go higher is because there was a global savings glut.

Starting point is 00:42:23 And he suggested that the Chinese saved so much money. They just darn it, they just wouldn't spend it at home or invest it at home, even though their economy was growing at 10% a year. couldn't find any place to invest in their 10% a year growing economy. And therefore, because there were a million Chinese people, how can we control them? How can we make them not save? Therefore, there's nothing we can do about this global savings flood that's pushing down U.S. interest rates

Starting point is 00:42:52 and creating the U.S. property bubble in the United States. But that's so untrue. He must have understood what really was happening because it wasn't the millions of 19-year-old girls working in Chinese factories, earning $5 a day, who saved all of their $5 a day after expenses and bought U.S. treasury bonds with it. If it had been, there wouldn't have been anything we could have done about it. But the reality was his counterparts at the central bank in China, the PBOC, they were printing literally trillions of dollars worth of yuan from thin air.

Starting point is 00:43:35 just like the Fed did through quantitative easing, around one through three. It's exactly the same story. And with that, you won, they bought the dollars. And that's where the savings came from. The central bank saved this money by printing it from thin air. If printing money is savings money, then yes, there's a global savings fund. It's not a savings blood. It's a global money glut.

Starting point is 00:44:00 It's a global paper money blood that was running out of control, that blew the US into a bubble. And Bernanke must have known that. But we could have stopped the PBOC from printing trillions of dollars worth of yuan and buying dollars and buying U.S. Treasury bonds with them. It would have only taken a few phone calls

Starting point is 00:44:19 and a few threats of trade tariffs and that would have stopped. So does that mean, Richard, and you just briefly mentioned it, that it would just take a few phone calls to stop this currency manipulation? Is that what you're saying that it would be the solution?

Starting point is 00:44:34 And then the reason why we don't do it is simple because the most wealthy will have an interest in the Chinese still manipulating it. And now I'm just blaming the Chinese, but basically a lot of countries in the world, they will still have an interest in manipulating the currencies because it would put a pressure on the wages in those countries. Is that what you're saying? Well, so to be more fair than I have been, the story is somewhat more complicated than I've painted it to be. other people in the United States or other groups who benefited, first of all, the U.S. government benefited from this arrangement because it didn't, after a few years in 1980s, they realized that by having a trade deficit, that meant other countries would have a surplus and they would accumulate this surplus as dollars and have to buy U.S. Treasury bond with the dollars they accumulated. And so that would make it very easy for the U.S. government to finance a very large budget deficit at very low interest rates. So this benefited the U.S. government by holding down U.S. interest rates, making it very easy for the U.S. government to run increasingly large budget deficit. And on top of that, it also turned out to be very helpful in terms of promoting U.S. foreign policy initiatives.

Starting point is 00:45:50 When you have a $200, $300 billion a year trade deficit with China, it's incredible how much more friendly China becomes and how much more willing China is to look the other way. You can buy a lot of Chinese cooperation on foreign policy initiatives, particularly the ones outside of Asia, when you have such a massive trade deficit with China. So in many ways, the United States was obtained numerous benefits from this arrangement. The government, the State Department, foreign policy initiatives, lower interest rates and lower cost of consumer goods. So every American consumer benefited from the lower cost of imported consumer goods and potential home buyers benefited from the lower interest rates. but the factory workers lost their jobs and wages stopped rising. The middle class started shrinking and we deindustrialized an income inequality group. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Starting point is 00:49:13 Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit. Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes thanks to the Fundrise income fund, which has more than $600 million invested in a 7.97% distribution rate. With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder price. credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years. Visit fundrise.com slash WSB to invest in the Fundrise income fund in just minutes. The fund's total return in 2025 was 8%, and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%. Past performance does not

Starting point is 00:49:57 guarantee future results, current distribution rate as of 1231, 2025. Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charge. and expenses. This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. So Richard, I got just kind of a transition into more current conditions in China. So when we look at what we're talking about as far as them in China, adjusting their fiat currency, which created this surplus and created an enormous growth in China for the last 20 years, call it. But in the last credit cycle, you've seen China kind of develop a different tactic in order to produce the so-called growth numbers that we're seeing over there.

Starting point is 00:50:47 And this was all in their credit growth and their shadow banking. This is something that I don't understand all that well. And I think a lot of people in our audience don't understand that well. So can you describe what has happened in China over the last eight years with this credit explosion and kind of put it in proportions so people understand how. how big this growth has been. And then, I'm sorry to kind of add the questions here, but then after you're done describing this credit growth to us, can you tell us why billionaire George Soros at the Davos convention just a few months back, about six months ago, said that he's currently watching a hard landing

Starting point is 00:51:26 occur in China. And what does he mean by all of that? Okay. Well, let's put this in the right perspective. Let me return to the U.S. for just a few more minutes. Once the bread and wood system broke down, that removed all the constraints on how much credit could be created in the U.S. Back when we were on the gold standard and money was backed by gold, that really constrained how much credit could be created. So for instance, total credit, which is the same thing as total debt, two sides of the same coin, total credit first went through $1 trillion in 1964.

Starting point is 00:52:02 But by 2007, U.S. credit had expanded 50 times to $50 trillion. So from $1 trillion to $50 trillion of credit in just 43 years. And that explosion of credit drove the U.S. economy, it drove the global economy. It created the world we live in. The credit growth drove the economic growth. Back in the olden days of the, say, the 19th century, capitalism worked because industrialists would make factories, sell things, and save money, accumulate capital, and reinvest that capital into new businesses.

Starting point is 00:52:44 And it was slow and hard, but they accumulated capital. And it was savings and investment that drove the economic process. That's why they called it capitalism. It was driven by capital accumulation. But in our age, this post-Brettenwood's world of paper money creation, It doesn't work like that anymore. Our world is not driven by saving an investment. It's driven by credit creation and consumption, and credit creation and consumption.

Starting point is 00:53:12 And the more credit we create, the more the economy grows and the more people have to spend. And that drove the U.S. economy for decades. But in 2008, all of that credit couldn't be repaid. So as long as the U.S. credit was expanding very rapidly, the Americans bought more. And so the rest of the world could sell more. And so they grew. And this ushered in globalization. And China was the main beneficiary of this. China's economy in 1990, it was the 11th largest in the world. It was only something like 7% the size of the U.S. economy. But by 2014, it had become not only the second largest economy in the world, but it was 60% of the U.S. economy.

Starting point is 00:54:01 in size. In 2007, U.S. credit grew by just that one year long, U.S. credit grew by $5 trillion. But at that point, it was such a bubble. The Americans couldn't repay the credit. All of the investment banks were leveraged 30 times. Everything imploded. All the credit was cut off. The whole thing came very close to complete collapse, and credit didn't grow at all the next year. So U.S. imports contracted very sharply. Chinese exports contracted very sharply. 20 million Chinese factory workers had to go home and work in the country size and agriculture once again. And so they, the Chinese at that point, had to step on the accelerator.

Starting point is 00:54:47 And they increased credit in China. They started rapidly expanding credit in China. So between 2009 and last year, bank loans, total bank loans in China tripled just in five years. And on top of that, all kinds of new shadow banking lending occur on a very aggressive scale. And this created, they were investing in new bridges and new highways and new airports, plus building new factories of every kind imaginable. So since 2008, every year, since then, up until last year, credit growth in absolute dollar terms is greater in China, considerably greater than China than it was in the U.S. So it surpassed the U.S. credit growth had been driving the global economy, had been driving the U.S. and China and Chimerica in the whole world.

Starting point is 00:55:47 But in 2008, that blew up, and China took over the leadership role in terms of credit growth. And not just credit growth, but also in absolute dollar terms, China's economy has been growing more than the U.S. economy has since 2008. We always have known for a long time that they've had very rapid GDP growth, 10% a year in percent terms. But not in dollar terms, not in absolute dollar terms. The U.S. economy was always growing much more in dollar terms than China's economy was, but no more. So China had this explosion of credit for the last several years. They built more and more factories of every kind and resulting in more and more production and more and more excess in industrial capacity is unnecessary.

Starting point is 00:56:35 So one well-known example is in three years, 2011, 2012, 2013, over that three-year period, China produced more cement than the United States did during the entire 20th century. That's unfathomable. And I know people have seen these videos of the ghost cities over in China. And we'll put up a video of this into our show notes. So if you've never seen this, you need to watch this. Go to our show notes and watch this. Where entire cities were cemented, if you will, and put up. And there wasn't a soul living in them. There was nobody. Do those still exist over there? Are these ghost cities still prevalent? Well, yes. Let's think about this. So if they do the same thing for the next three years, then once again, of course, they'll be producing as much cement again

Starting point is 00:57:22 as the U.S. in the entire 20th century and the next three years and the next three years. But if they only produce that much, there'll be zero percent growth in cement. That will just be no growth. That's just flat. That's not creating any economic growth. So the problem is they are drowning in cement and steel

Starting point is 00:57:41 and every other imaginable product you can make in a factory. And so they have extraordinary excess capacity across every industry just on a mind-boggling scale. Consequently, the prices of all the products that all of these factories produce, they are crashing. And so the companies producing them are not profitable, and they are unable to repay their bank loans. So they're non-performing loans in the banks, in reality, must be exploding. even though it doesn't appear that way. And meanwhile, China is trying to flood the world with steel and cement and everything else that you make in a factory. And the rest of the world economically is just too weak to be able to continue absorbing all this Chinese production.

Starting point is 00:58:30 So the world is not economically strong enough to keep absorbing more and more Chinese goods every year. And within China, the wages are so low, I would say less than, 70% of the people in China earn less than $10 a day. The median personal disposable income per person is $8.13 a day. You can't buy a lot of stuff if your disposable income is $8 a day. So how many half a million dollar condos are you going to buy? How much cement can you actually buy? How many tennis shoes and televisions can you buy?

Starting point is 00:59:06 So there's not enough purchasing power within China. So the factory workers don't make enough money to buy the things that they're producing. And in the past, that was okay because they just sold everything to the United States. But now the Americans are in trouble and they can't keep buying more and more Chinese goods and no one else can't either. And at this point, their strategy, their economic growth model was based on export-led investment-driven growth. But now their exports can't grow as they did in the past. The more they invest, the more money they lose. So their economic growth model is in crisis.

Starting point is 00:59:46 Last year, China's exports actually dropped. And when China's exports drop, then China's imports drop. So we're told that last year, China's economy grew by more than 6.5%, 6.7, 6.9%. And maybe it did, maybe it didn't. If you build enough ghost cities, you can make the economy grow. There's certainly no question. China's economies didn't completely transform over the last 25 years. Shanghai now looks like the Emerald City and the Wizard of Oz.

Starting point is 01:00:20 It's quite amazing. But it doesn't matter how much China's economy is growing as far as the rest of the world is concerned. What matters to the rest of the world is how much Chinese imports are growing. In other words, how much more China is going to buy from Brazil every year than the year before? For America, how much are their imports growing? Well, last year, China's imports contracted by 17%. So China did not act as a driver of global growth last year, regardless of what their economy may or may not have grown by.

Starting point is 01:00:54 Their imports contracted by 17%. Consequently, they were a big drag, a big break on the global economy. So global commodity prices crashed. One of the great things about having you on the podcast is that Presby and I've been studying China for quite some time. And we see a lot of warning signs in the Chinese economy. GDP or the contraction GDP growth might be one thing. We also have seen some problems with import and exports as you talked about recently.

Starting point is 01:01:20 But I'm curious to hear how you see the current economic situation in China. And perhaps more importantly, in that relation, how you identify reliable data about China because it seems every time we bring this up with a guest, and that guest would say, this is the data we have, but we're really not sure about them. But I'm thinking somewhat with your background, also in IMF and in various banks, do you have access to another type of data that might be more reliable? Even if you dig into the officially available data that is provided by China, you can learn a great deal. I have a list of things here in front of me. Just for example, steel production increased at an average rate of 14% a year between the

Starting point is 01:02:07 year 2000 and 2014, but last year it contracted by 2%. During the same period, cement production increased by 10% every year during those 14 years. Last year was down by 5%. And most important of all, exports were down 9% and imports were down 17%. So those are the official statistics and is showing recession across all of those areas. It's not clear where the growth is coming from that adds up to six and a half or seven percent GDP growth that was reported. So you can look at even the official statistics, but the most important one, again, for the world, is the import growth.

Starting point is 01:02:47 And you can check that because the other countries are reporting it is their export growth. You can verify that through external sources. The thing that everyone focuses on is that GDP number, and they're looking at it. Well, they're saying that this is what it is, but you're just like, well, let's dig into the numbers beneath that. And more importantly, let's look at the change that's occurred. So if they've been doing 10% every year for the last eight years,

Starting point is 01:03:11 now all of a sudden the number is negative, and it's like that across the board as we look at all these different metrics, that's pretty profound. That's something that really, for me, tells a story. So whether you actually know what the exact number is or not, I think the thing that's more important is looking at that change in the tide. Is the tide going in or is it going out? And at this point, it really seems based on all those metrics that you just quickly

Starting point is 01:03:38 throw it out to us that it's starting to go out. My question would be this. What would be something that could turn this around? Like, how could they revive their economy so that they could start growing and basically turning all those numbers back into the green again? What could the government do at this point? Or can't they do anything? It was one thing when China was a relatively small economy, but now it's become so large.

Starting point is 01:04:03 It's the second largest in the world. US GDP is $18 trillion a year. China's GDP is getting close to $11 trillion a year now. A country's economy is made up of really just a few parts. Investment, household consumption, government spending, and net trade or exports minus imports. normally consumption is by far the largest. The U.S. consumption is about 70% of GDP. Well, in China, consumption is only 35% of GDP.

Starting point is 01:04:37 In China, it's investment that's so large. Investment in China makes up something quite close to 48% of all China's economic output, whereas in the U.S. investment is only something like 18% of GDP. So in China, every year, last year, China invested, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but something like $4.5 trillion, whereas the U.S. invested something like $3 trillion. So even though the U.S. economy is much larger, China's investment is much larger, building factories, residential condos and bridges. Here's a funny story.

Starting point is 01:05:15 I was just in a debate with someone at a big conference in Korea. We were asked to debate China's future. They hired me to take the negative side. The other guy didn't put up much of a fight. He told a story that he's a Chinese professor at one of the prestigious universities. He said he was recently taken to one of China's many, many, many large cities

Starting point is 01:05:40 and somewhere in the interior. And he was shown two new bridges that had just been completed, very fine looking bridges. The thing was they didn't cross anything. The river was not there. The river was still planned for the future. Oh my gosh. And so that just gives you some idea of how, what has challenged, let's say, to put it mildly, this country's leadership is facing now in terms of how are they going to make the economy grow

Starting point is 01:06:12 when it's so dependent on investment and they have too much investment of everything. And their people only earn $10 a day. You can't somehow shift from being an investment-driven economy, being a consumption-driven economy. Because if you start shutting down steel factories and laying off steel workers and laying off coal miners, these people aren't going to consume more, they're going to consume less. These people may find jobs in the service sector somewhere,

Starting point is 01:06:42 but as we know from the American experience, service sector jobs pay less than manufacturing jobs. And so China is in serious trouble and the entire global economy. Chimerica is entering recession. Chimerica, if you add the U.S. economy and China's economy together, it makes up 36% of the world's economy. If you add their investment together, it makes up 41% of all the investment in the world. Chimerica is going into recession. So this is not just a Chinese problem.

Starting point is 01:07:15 This is a global problem. This is an American problem. This is a European problem. And we have to solve it on a global basis. China's not going to be able to solve it alone. And if this economic relationship between the United States and China, this chimerican relationship, if it ends in divorce involving trade tariffs, then the global economy is going to collapse into a global depression.

Starting point is 01:07:40 So the global economy is in great danger now of taking a very serious hard turn for the worst. So Richard, at this point in the show, our audience clearly can see your depth of knowledge, your understanding of these topics. And so if they want to learn more about you, first of all, where can they find you? I know I'm a personal subscriber to your newsletter. So where can they sign up for your newsletter and then just tell people the names of your books again in case they're interested in buying this?

Starting point is 01:08:11 We've been talking a lot of very high-level macroeconomic stuff. and even with a political slant. But that's not really what I spend most of my days working on, I think is very important. But I also believe that clearly people want to understand how to invest. So my business now is I produce a video newsletter called Macro One that I sell on a subscription basis. And every two weeks, I upload a new video describing developments in the global economy

Starting point is 01:08:45 and how they're likely to impact asset prices. So your listeners can find MacroWatch, which is Richard Duncan Economics.com. If they use the coupon code watch, W-A-T-C-H, like MacroWatch, they'll get a 50% discount. And there they can find, they can subscribe to Macro Watch, or they could also sign up for my free blog. The recurring themes that run through my videos

Starting point is 01:09:13 are built around what I believe, the new truth about the way the economy and investing works in this era of fiat money. Richard, thank you so much. This episode was just phenomenal. This is amazing information. And I know that people are probably going to go back and listen to this over and over again to try to capture all the nuggets that you put out there. So thank you for your time. And we just really appreciate that. So thanks for joining us, and that's all we have for you this week.

Starting point is 01:09:47 Thanks for listening to The Investors Podcast. To listen to more shows or access to the tools discussed on the show, be sure to visit www.com. Submit your questions or request a guest appearance to the Investors Podcast by going to www.com. If your question is answered during the show, you will receive a free autographed copy of the Warren Buffett Accounting Book. This podcast is for entertainment purposes only.

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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP 097 : China and the History of the Dollar (Business Podcast)

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