We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP156: Small Cap Investing w/ Eric Cinnamond (Investing Podcast)
Episode Date: September 16, 2017IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: Why small cap investing can be profitable for the right type of investor. Why you should always question where you are in the profit margin cycle. Why money manager...s are 100% invested in a market that 80% of them believes is overvalued. Why cyclical stocks are hated and yet can be extremely profitable. Ask the investors: How do I value stocks with declining net income? BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Eric Cinnamond’s blog, Absolute Return Investing. Jesse Felder’s blog, The Felder Report. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: SimpleMining AnchorWatch Human Rights Foundation Onramp Superhero Leadership Unchained Vanta Shopify Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Transcript
Discussion (0)
You're listening to TIP.
Hey, everyone. So Stig and I are so pumped to share today's episode with you because it was quite
the learning experience for both of us. Our good friend and former billion dollar hedge fund manager,
Jesse Felder, told us about today's guest, and he insisted that it was an important person
for us to interview. So Jesse told us that we would be hard pressed to find a guest that knew
more about small cap investing. And boy, was he right. So after hearing this interview,
you'll quickly learn why Eric Siniment, who's today's guest, came with such a strong recommendation.
When we recently invited Eric to come on the show, it was to talk about small cap investing,
where he's really the top authority. I learned a lot from our discussion about how price were
set in the small cap market compared to lots cap stocks. What really surprised me was whenever we
transitioned into our discussion about profit margin cycles. What most investors do is that they look at the
past 10 years, and then they make some assumptions about the free cash flows and the earnings
of that stock. However, what you might be looking at is two positive credit margin cycles
and one negative or the opposite. Together with Eric, we want to solve that in this episode.
You are listening to The Investors Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the
books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the
unexpected. So, Eric, thank you so much for coming on our show. Such an honor to have you here. I know
our audience is really going to eat up this discussion about small cap investing. Thanks a lot,
Justin. And thanks, Dick, for having me. And of course, thank you, Jesse, for recommending me.
I appreciate that. So whenever I look at your background, I see that you've actively managed money
for 18 years. And recently in 2016, you returned the money from your fund back to your investors.
And in your bio you talk about this idea of relative returns versus absolute returns.
Talk to our audience about, first of all, why you return the money.
And second of all, this idea of relative versus absolute returns.
Yeah, that's a great question.
First, why return the money?
You know, absolute return investing, if you're not getting paid to take risk, you know,
I just, I don't do that.
But absolute return investor, for me, I actually have a specific hurdle rate and that's
10 to 15% on my equity.
And if I can't achieve that, that's my objective.
I'm unable to achieve that.
I hold cash.
Well, what happened to me in 2016 is I had a high level of cash at that time,
I had about 80% cash.
And I was also in a very contrary position in the precious metal miners.
And I mean, imagine that holding 10 to 50% minors in 80% cash and somehow still maintaining
enough assets to make a living.
So those were good times.
But the miners actually worked out.
and reached my valuations for the most part.
And I began to sell those.
This was in the spring of 2016.
That's when it struck me.
The main area where I was finding value, those 50 cent dollars were now close to my fair
value.
And it wasn't really performance related.
We're having a pretty good 2016 because of the equity returns on the miners.
But once I started selling those, I started to get to 90% cash.
So now I'm at 90% cash and the 10% equity I had left in the portfolio.
So we're invested in equities that were close to fair value.
But the future returns, the absolute future returns, which I expected were not so great,
to where I could not achieve that 10 to 50% on even the remaining equities.
And at that time, you know, in May of 2016, that's when I recommended returning capital law.
So, Eric, on the show, Sting and I for, I mean, it's been forever because these valuations since we've been doing the show have been sky high.
Stig and I are always throwing out a number around 3%.
is where we think the market is currently priced if a person would buy into the S&P 500 index.
Would you agree with that estimate, or do you think that the yield is higher or lower than that?
I think it is around a 3% free cash flow yield for most of the small caps I follow.
You know, my opportunity sets trading around 30 times earnings, you know, and I know where we are
in the cycle right now, I normalize earnings.
So if you think margins are above average, which, I mean, you don't have to think that.
they are. But if you normalize those margins, you could argue that the price to earnings on
normalized basis is even higher. I know the Schiller P.E's around 30 as well, which would give you a
shower earnings yield of around 3% as well. If you use 10 years history of rates and you use
these artificially low rates, well, that's enhanced earnings above where they would be if rates
were normal or real rates were 2 to 3% instead of 0% to 1%. So I did the math. They are kind of backed into
that and came up with a shiller Pee this closer to 4%.
40 times. So I think you could argue if you normalize earnings and use normalized interest rates,
you could actually get to an earnings yield that's a little less than 3%. I know this is impossible
to predict. But what's your gut tell you for the next cycle? Do you see rates normalizing? Because
I don't. I see them continuing to get pushed down through central banking activities.
And I get the sense from a lot of smart investors that we talk to that they kind of have a similar
sentiment. You kind of feel the same way or do you see rates starting to come back up in the next cycle?
I hope central banks are unable to suppress interest rates indefinitely. I mean, to me,
though, just would be sad, you know, to where investing as we know it, free markets as we know it,
as we know it, is gone. I mean, it's very, very sad circumstances. So I hope, I'm very optimistic
that the markets eventually overwhelm the central bankers and take back their rights, you know,
as investors can investigate it. You know, I don't know what you call this environment, but
I don't call it investing.
It's too controlled where you have these central bankers controlling the interest rates where they are.
I mean, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that it could last forever.
But if it does, you know, that's when I have to find another line of work.
Because it's not real.
You know, it's not what we all study to do.
You know, here you have an industry with thousands of extremely smart people, this human capital,
trying to allocate capital, the best of their abilities, to find those discounts.
to put money where it should be placed, you know, most officially.
And that whole process is artificial now.
You know, it's, you know, everyone calls it malinvestment, you know, call it what you want,
but it's not natural.
And, you know, I miss a good old fashion bubble.
I mean, give me the tech bubble.
I can understand that one.
I was pure greed.
This one is almost forced on you, you know, either you play along or you don't.
So I have a tendency to start talking some of the macro factors,
but we're going to scope this back into what we're really after here.
When that's talking about small cap investing.
So I'm going to throw it over to Stig for his first question.
So you started your career in a fund and you started out solely working with small cap stocks.
And that's also a specialty today.
How is small cap investing different than investing in blue chips?
And could you also, in that relation, elaborate on the concept of the small cap police,
which is a very interesting discussion that you also have really to understand how the price are set for small cap stocks.
Sure. I mean, obviously there's a lot of differences between large cap and small caps. There's so many more small caps. You know, if you look at large caps, there's a few hundred. There's a few hundred midcaps. Well, there's thousands of small caps. So I just, I find that just so much more interesting area to work in where you can find new ideas, maybe things you haven't worked on before. And I just think there's, there's more opportunity in small caps. I think there's bigger dislocations between price and value. And, you know, a lot of that revolves around liquidity, less liquid.
stocks are going to move more violently than very liquid stocks where the bin nask is very liquid.
So there's a lot of differences.
You know, there's even minor differences.
We think about sales, you know, obviously large caps, I'm much larger sales, but it also leads
to smaller caps having more concentration in sales.
You know, there's a little more risk, concentration risk.
I found with small caps as well.
So there's a reason small caps you should demand a higher required rate of return for small caps than
the mega caps and the midcaps.
And I would say one of the things I love about small caps is I just, I feel like there's more straight shooters.
You know, when I listen to a mega cap conference call, I almost feel like after an hour, I just listen to an infomercial.
It's so promotional.
But some of the small caps, you know, they did crack jokes.
It's more personal.
They tell stories about their business.
I just enjoy it more.
You know, it's less scripted.
Yeah.
And speaking of straight shooters, I guess the price setting in the small cap mug is,
is different than whenever you started your career.
Sure.
I mean, you know, back then the largest holders of these small cap stocks were, you know,
traditional small cap value companies are managers like the Royce funds, Hartland,
DuBelie.
You know, those are larger holders.
And when prices got out of whack, they were there to police the market, you know,
almost like a market maker.
Like, all right, now I have an overvalued small value stock.
will sell it. But now when I look at the top holders, I see Vanguard, dimensional funds,
BlackRock, and these are just, they're much more, I mean, they are, they're pricing
sensitive investors. There's a flip-flop from when I started. I know I mentioned this before,
but I still think this is what is going to be a significant contributor to small-capa opportunity
in the future is the absence of the small-cap police. And do you think that the reason for this
discrepancies also that there's so much more indexing today so you don't have the same type
of rationale behind the price setting for these small cap companies. No question. Yeah, the small caps
have being indexed just as much as the large cap and midcaps. It's kind of concerning. You know,
you think about this perception that indexing is safer. You know, I don't think a lot of investors
open the hood of some of these ETFs and index funds. You know, small cap stocks, just say the Russell 2000,
When I screen for a small cap stock, depending on where we are in the profit cycle,
half to a third of these small caps don't make money.
If you buy an index fund, you don't know this.
You're buying companies that are losing money.
I mean, you wouldn't want to do that, right, with your money.
But when you index, you're actually doing that.
And people get this comfort of diversification that it's lowering your risk,
but I actually think it's increasing your risk by owning thousands of small caps.
Many of them may not be viable businesses in the next few years or the next recession.
So I love your point there about understanding where you're at in the credit cycle.
We know Howard Marks talks about that in his book about knowing where you're at in the credit cycle
and kind of understanding those forces at play.
Whenever you're looking at the credit cycle, I know a lot of people look at the margin,
and I know you've brought that up a few times, Eric, is what's the profit margin on the businesses?
And I think if I remember right, in this last cycle, we saw profit margins get as high as 12%.
Is that one of the key factors that you're looking at to kind of know where you're at in the
cycle as far as kind of understanding the timing? Are there other metrics that you're using to kind of
understand where you're at? Most definitely. So I remember the mortgage credit boom. I think,
you know, 2003 to 2008, that's when I really became interested in credit and the credit cycle
and how that impacts the profit cycle. So when I value a business, I'm trying to normalize earnings
and I need to know where we are in that earnings cycle to get an accurate valuation. And the credit
cycle is so important to that because the credit cycle influences probably,
profits tremendously. If you look at the stock market, especially with small caps, and you overlay
that with the profit cycle, you know, one of the reasons I hear on financial television, I try not
to watch much when I do, you know, one of the main reasons to buy stocks is profits are high.
But if you look historically, that's usually one of the main reasons you want to sell stocks
because people are extrapolating record margins and record profits. But you go back to margins,
why margins are so important. Again, I normalize. You know, we just saw footlockers.
announced last week, really poor comps. And it's amazing what happens to retailers' margins
when comps go from plus two, plus three to minus five, minus six. There's a tremendous amount
of operating over is there. You know, their earnings expectations fell significantly. Gross margins
were down three, four hundred basis points. So I've owned Phil Walker before, but I owned them
when their margins were operating margins were 1%. And most recent year, they were 13%.
right? So I want to know everything about the business that influences margins to where I can
determine that normalize margins, which eventually determines you normalize free cash flow.
And Eric, could you please explain that process? You're talking about normalizing earnings of the
cash flows. Like, how do you do that? Like, how many years do you use? Does it also depend on the
type of business? Could you please go through your process? No, that's right. The cycles vary
between industries and businesses.
So you got to be careful not to just use a standard 5, 10 year, 7 year,
you know, whatever your number is.
When you think about the Schiller PE,
and I actually talked about this recently with a friend
and fellow absolute return investor,
and we talked about this, how the Schiller PE is 10 years.
Well, 10 years, it could include two up cycles and one down cycle, right?
So now you're not really normalizing,
or it could include two down and one up.
I like to customize my normalization and my period and customize it to the particular business or industry.
And usually it's obviously industry.
I absolutely love that comment.
And I don't think that that's something we've ever talked about on the show before Stig.
That is a really important thing that Eric just talked about.
So I would highly encourage people.
If you didn't catch that, you need to listen to that again.
Because he's talking about looking at the size of the credit side.
that you're in to use that to understand the normalization of what you expect the free cash
lows to be moving forward. That's a really amazing point. Eric, is there any other metrics that you're
looking at? We talked about margins, and I know that that one is a very good indicator of kind of
understanding where you're at, at least the charts that I've looked at in the past.
Are there other things that you're looking at, call it the Schiller PE, or is there another one that
I personally like is the unemployment rate. Whenever you see the unemployment rate, get down to
levels that we see today, it hasn't been there in what, 30, 35 years or something like that.
It hasn't been this low. I think that's a really strong indicator that you're at a market
top. Do you have other indicators that you're looking at?
You know, I'm not the only one that views this valuation metric, but I always have liked
price to sales. It just weeds out so much of the noise and the manipulation and earnings
or the financial engineering. I always found it to be a very good indicator. The one thing I
learned in the tech bubble is valuations can go to such extremes beyond belief, you know,
on the upside and downside. You know, small cap value stocks were extremely inexpensive in 99,000.
I didn't think they could get any cheaper than they did. And then tech stocks were outrageous.
They couldn't get any more expensive. And they did. So you have to always be careful with these
valuation metrics. They don't really help you with timing, but they help you tremendously with
monitoring risk and potential return. Fantastic. Hey, I know a guy who likes,
price the sales, Jesse Felder.
I see him always saying that too.
That's funny. I bumped into Jesse's blog and I started reading it and I actually emailed
him right away. We eventually spoke on the phone and we think alike. So that's a compliment
saying that we're looking at the same thing. Yeah. No, and I agree with you because it's such a
raw number. I really like looking at that as well. You can't manipulate price to sales.
Sales or sales. Yeah. Hey, so going back to the small cap theme here.
I've got a really simple question, but I think it's a really important question.
And that is, what would you say are the two biggest mistakes that people make
whenever they're investing in small cap type businesses?
You know, I think one thing is the growth rate.
I think the perception is small caps are always, you know, these high growing companies.
But the ones I focus on actually are slow growers.
You know, one of the mistakes I try to limit is using growth rates that are just unachievable
too aggressive. I think growth rates are one of the areas you can make a lot of mistakes because
a small cap company in its earlier stages of its life, say a restaurant does an IPO and they come
out with 100 million in sales and they have 100 million in cash. Well, you can grow that pretty quickly
by just opening new units and using that cash. But at some point, you know, you're going to mature,
you're going to run out of cash and that growth rate's going to go from 15 to 20 percent to 0 to 5
percent and that's when the growth investors kick the stock out of portfolio and the value investors
come in so this is that kind of growth and value transition but not all small caps are biotech
companies you know there's so many mature small caps they're immature industries and there's many market
leaders in small caps so i think that's kind of a misperception by a lot of people another thing with
small caps i think a mistake people make is they feel maybe asset allocators more so than the retail
investors, but they feel they need a small cap allocation. They must own some small caps. Why?
You don't have to always own something. You know, you don't have to always own an asset class.
If the Russell 2000 troughed in 2009 at 350, small caps are extremely inexpensive then.
That was the last time I was a very aggressive, aggressively positioned. But now you're at 1400.
The enterprise value, even off, the Russell 2000s, like 22 times. I mean, that's twice of a normal takeover
evaluation. Why do I want to own any fund or index or ETF or small caps? You know,
it's not necessary. You don't have to own small caps. I think it's a huge mistake. But what happens
is asset allocators often look backwards at what is generated and they use these historical
returns and they plug them in their models and then the models spit out what they should own.
But yeah, if you use the last five, ten years of small cap returns and you plug them in your
model, and of course they're going to look good.
But how they act in the future, that's a whole other story.
Yeah.
Because they're not taken into account that credit cycle that you talked about earlier.
I totally agree with you.
It's extrapolation, you know, with credit, profits, price, the environment.
Next year will be different than this year.
But we price securities often as it will be the same indefinitely, right?
Not just for next few quarters, but for many, many years.
If you look at the value of a stock, most of the value of the stock is many, many years away, right?
If you value a long-term bond back when we had interest rates, most of the value was 10, 20, 30 years.
If you bought a 30-year bond, most of the value was many, many years away.
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All right, back to the show.
So in continuation of this, I would really like to talk more about,
the cycles. And I really can't remember who we had on the show. Perhaps it was either Bill Miller
or it might be Jim Rogers who talked about the danger of starting your career in a bull market,
which is kind of like a funny thing because I guess most people would be like, that must be great.
Everything is going up. You feel invincible, right? So I know you started your career back in the
90s where everything was going up. And today you have a lot of experience under your belt.
And now this is your third cycle. So I'm curious to hear.
what you learn from each of these cycles,
and if you also feel that it might have been a disadvantage
for you that you began in the bull cycle?
No question.
I mean, that is a great point.
You know, 93 to 2000, for most of that cycle,
everything I touched turned to gold.
It was unbelievable.
93 and really 98.
I mean, I just graduated from college.
You know, I was running trust money like 300 million.
I couldn't believe they'd given me all this money to run.
It was incredible.
And I was doing well.
And then in 96, I joined Evergreen Funds as a small cat value manager.
And the trend continued.
You know, everything I bought went up, not everything, but almost it felt like everything
would work out.
But it was, you know, I talked about this with Jesse.
It was the profit cycle.
But I had no idea.
It was my first cycle, right?
I mean, I was this young analyst and I thought it was a genius.
And it was great.
But then, you know, of course, the tech bubble hit.
And that, wow, that was humbling experience where I went from.
the genius to the idiot. And that was a very, very difficult cycle. Still, I was talking about
99. I'm most proud of that year because I lost 8%. I don't know if you tried if you could lose
8% 99, but somehow I did it because I boarded tech and bought some cap value. But Bill Miller is
right in that, you know, Jim Rogers as well, where you start and influence how you perceive yourself
and how others perceive yourself. And you think about the average age of an analyst and manager now,
I would guess it's eight to 10 years maybe, you know, and what's the cycle length of the cycle?
About nine, right?
Yeah.
So it's interesting.
A lot of investors now running billions and billions, maybe trillions of dollars,
they're in the same position I was in back in the 90s when I thought I could do no wrong
and I was bulletproof.
And that's kind of scary.
And good thing I wasn't running a billion dollars back then.
You know, I could have hurt somebody.
In fact, in 99, I did lose 8%, but that kind of loss you can recover from.
And I did.
But the losses that could occur in this cycle with where valuations are, you know,
these are types of losses, especially if one of the reasons the market goes down is loss of confidence in central banks,
because then who's going to bail out the next cycle.
But if you just revert to normal valuations, you could lose in small caps, half your capital.
You know, that's not down 8%.
that's going to be really difficult to recover from unless you have another bubble.
And how do we gauge we have these bubbles every five to ten years?
I mean, is that what we're actually relying on to make investment decisions now?
I'm overpay because I know they'll bail out this one to build another bubble down the road.
That, again, it goes back to as this investor.
It's an interesting point that you bring up about people having faith or trust in the central banks moving into this next downturn.
I personally think that that's going to be a lot of the questions that are going to be.
I really hope that I'm wrong, but I really think that that's going to be the thing that really
drives the panic that we've always seen in these cycles.
But I'm kind of curious, would you agree with that, Eric, or do you kind of see maybe some other
things that could potentially cause the panic?
It's been so long since we've had panic.
I think once it happens, it's going to be so new to so many people, and even people that
are experienced, they haven't seen it in so long.
I mean, when you are losing 10, 20, 30 percent of your money or your client's money, that's frightening.
And I don't think people are even considering this.
But when you look at valuations, why shouldn't you be considering it?
History suggests you shouldn't even just be considering it.
You should be counting on it.
And this is very normal for bare markets, right?
And the amount of money that's indexed now and how price is sensitive many of these assets are,
for us, for disciplined value investors, I think the end of this cycle is,
going to be extremely profitable. If you have liquidity, you're going to be able to take advantage of it.
But if you don't, how are you going to allocate capital? You don't have to allocate it. It's already
invested. And it's tough. You know, everyone thinks they'll be the first one out when a cycle ends.
You know, like when you ring the bell, but you know what small cash, if you're running a billion
dollars in small cap money and the bell rings and the Russell 2000 drops 30 percent,
I have news for you. You're not getting out. You're not going to be the first one out. It's
not possible. You're going to write it down.
Well, when you go back and you look at like the 2008, I was looking at it week by week,
just to kind of understand what that panic looks like. And in a week, you were seeing
12 to 14 percent pullbacks and you saw it for a month straight where you saw those
kind of numbers. So like this stuff hits so fast and so hard. And then the mindset,
the psychology of the person who's experiencing that is if I just lost $10,000. I just lost
$30,000.
And for a person who might have a $100,000 portfolio, they'd be saying these things to
themselves.
They're like, I can't sell these positions because then that becomes real.
And so, like, I'm just going to hold and I'll wait it out.
And you know what that turns out to be?
That turns out to be eight years later, they got their principal back on their, you know,
or five years later or whatever it be.
So what they're really paying is they're paying for the time and the lost time that's
coming in the future for them to get that principle back.
And it's a whole lot harder from a.
psychological standpoint if you've never experienced that before.
That's right.
If your position, if you're fully invested right now, which you know mutual fund cash levels
are 3%, and Frank Martin did a great blog last week about this.
He's talked about how cash levels are 3% on average for equity mutual funds.
Meanwhile, there was a survey that showed portfolio managers, 80% plus a portfolio managers
believe stocks are currently, I think it was as expensive as
2000 by year 2000. So you have a huge conflict here. On one hand, the professionals are fully invested.
On the other, they think stocks are overvalued. So if they think stocks are overvalued and they
start losing 10 to 20, 30 percent of their clients capital, I don't know how they're going to
respond. I think because they know stocks are expensive, I think they might be a little quicker to sell
than if they firmly believe there was value, if they had margins of safety. But they don't,
And I think they know that.
I mean, the survey shows that.
So, Eric, one of the things that I struggle with when looking at small cap businesses is finding
the financials that are somewhat stable and therefore calculable whenever I'm looking at
trying to figure out what I think the intrinsic value of the business is.
So I've often had just very little confidence in the small cap arena.
And I see myself gravitating more towards mid and large cap businesses because I see this
ability in the numbers.
and I feel like I can come up with a better projection of what the free cash flow is going to look like moving forward.
Help me understand how I can improve my process and how you look at the small caps.
When I'm reading your blog, I see that you said that you did 200 calls, 200 assessments in a quarter.
And I mean, you're reading all these financial reports.
I mean, you're really down into it.
So help me understand how I can maybe improve my approach with small cap.
I think if you follow more mature companies, less exciting companies, you know, I'm always looking for that sort of perpetual bond type of business.
And they're not really trying to impress you.
They're just trying to go three to five percent a year, you know, kind of have that sort of high single digit, maybe 10 percent return on capital.
They're not exciting companies.
And that's what I want because my whole absolute return process revolves around limiting mistakes.
and I focus on those companies that are more mature, less likely to surprise me on the upside or downside, you know, both ways.
So I think that is helpful focusing on companies with long operating histories.
And over time, if you follow the same names for, say, 20 years, you get to know the companies that are promotional.
You know, you kind of get to know the managers that are sort of the Eddie Haskells of the world, you know, versus the street shooters.
So that takes time.
You know, another thing that I was just thinking about just now was you could even focus on closely held businesses.
You know, closely held businesses, you know, people often put discounts on those.
But I disagree.
You know, if you have a closely held business that's being run properly, they don't tend to financial engineer as much because why fool yourself?
You know, you're the majority shareholder.
There's no reason to participate in financial engineering.
But you're right.
You know, it does happen in small caps.
But I would argue it happens as much or even more in the larger cap name.
I think small cap companies often learn from the bigger market caps, what's acceptable, what isn't.
And a lot of them will imitate that.
I remember in early my career, we didn't have these non-gaps where you have 20 footnotes after the press release.
You know, that might be one or two footnotes, but now it's half the press releases footnotes on how to explain their non-gap.
So it's definitely, it's gotten out of hand for sure, but with all market caps.
So, Eric, do you find that small-cap businesses in many ways are easier to analyze than
lots-cap businesses? Simple because the business model might not be as complex. And also because
many small-cap companies, as you also trust upon, that's not necessarily a biotech company or
something that's just growing or is just failing. It's also, it might be family-owned businesses,
you know, that's having a stable track record for, call it, not even a few decades, but perhaps
even more than that.
That's right. So these, again, are very mature companies that have been through many cycles,
and that allows us an analyst to analyze how the business will respond to many different environments.
And that goes back to normalizing cash flows, determining sort of that margin range, very important.
And history is one of the best ways to do that longer history, the better.
I rarely buy IPOs, you know, new companies, just go public.
There's just not a long enough history for me to get a good feel for where,
what I should expect for margins and cash flows.
Eric, I got a question for you.
So, you know, when we're trying to filter through finding the best picks on the market,
a lot of the filtering that we do is this EBIT to enterprise value when we're trying to find things.
What are you using as a filter to find new companies in your mix?
You know, I have a formal screening process, and it starts with market cap.
It's $100 million to $5 billion.
And then I put a profitability hurdle on that.
And it's 1% ROE.
And you're like, well, that can't be hard to exceed that hurdle rate.
But you'd be surprised with small caps.
Again, we talked about this earlier.
Depending on where you're in the market cycle, you know,
third to a half of small caps don't make money.
So that eliminates about half.
One thing I don't like using earnings like a P.E.
And even enterprise value, even though.
But I do like enterprise value even better than P.E for many reasons.
But I want to be careful not to weed out cyclical companies that are
generating trough operating results. So there's a lot of high quality cyclical companies.
You know, I wrote a post called Great Poupon investing, and I kind of poke fun at maybe value
investors that are, their opportunity set is so narrow because they only buy a certain type
of company. But there's so many opportunities in cyclical businesses if you can get over the
fact that their operating results are just naturally evolved. There's nothing wrong with that.
If you can normalize and they're profitable throughout a cycle, and they have good balance sheets,
That sometimes turns off a lot of investors, which I think creates opportunity.
So I try to avoid screening by PE, so I just want a minimum that they can make money.
It's a very low rate.
So I have that market cap, probably a herd rate.
But then I apply a leverage filter, and I want these companies to have less than three to five times debt to discretionary cash flow.
And my reasoning for that for small caps, you know, small caps aren't like mega caps that can borrow for 30 to 40.
years. You know, if you look at most small cap debt, it's more the maturity wall is, you know,
20. You know, it's more like four to six years max. So I want to make sure that they can pay off
their debt with cash flow if needed versus depending on a fickle banker or a Moody credit market.
So after that debt screen, then I have, believe it or not, about 500 names and about half of
those are already on my buy list, right? So, you know, I'm so familiar with many of these.
And then I sort through the remainder, and there's probably 100 or so that I've worked on and will not own for one reason or another.
It could be management, capital allocation strategy, as many reasons.
And then maybe once every month I get probably even, you know, one and two names a month.
So it's not as much as you think.
And those replace many of the companies that were either acquired or may have violated my bi-discipline for one reason or another.
Another way I screen for stocks is I do role playing where I'm trying to pretend I'm a relative
return manager with a really big house, country club membership, big cars, a yacht, and
running a billion plus and relative return money.
And then I think to myself, all right, I've got 10 very large consultant meetings next week.
What do I not want to talk about?
right there. That is usually one of the best ways to be a contrarian and come up with contrarian ideas.
And right now, where would you look? I would think you're approaching that sort of the end of the
year where there's that performance anxiety, that you're in performance panic. I think you might
want to start looking at energy and retail. I think those might be the two most embarrassing sectors
in the market right now to own for professional managers. And when professional managers, you know,
they have this, I call perception risk.
When they feel that they may lose assets for just talking about, maybe owning some of these
things, I think that's sometimes you can find tremendous value, just sort of role playing
as if you're a relative return measure.
So I love that, that comment.
That's amazing because we had a conversation last night, Stig and I, and I was talking about
Target, which I think if you brought up Target or Walmart or any of these retailers,
to anybody right now, they're going to think you're a total idiot with all the news and everything
that Jeff Bezos is making in the market. And it's funny that you say that because I think
that is a great way to think about this is how would you be scared to talk about something in a
meeting with consultants? And that's probably where you need to be looking the most.
That's an awesome comment. So, Eric, once in a while, Preston and I talk to each other about
stocks that we're looking at. And lately we've been talking about retail, partly target as
mentioned before. And of course, we have this huge threat from Amazon that everyone's talking about.
How do you see margins and how do you see that in relation to the cycles that we've been
talking about? Do you see the margins just going down from now and just keep slipping over
the next decade? Or how are you seeing this?
I think it's difficult to determine right now because we haven't seen a recession in so long.
Everyone is so focused on Amazon, but if you go back to the last cycle, if you go to 2008, 2009, and you look at retailers or suppliers and retailers, and you look at their margins and what happened, there's a tremendous amount of operating leverage when sales decline for retailers and their suppliers.
You know, I remember when Haynes Brands was, they were in low single digit stock.
You know, they had some debt.
And if an underwear company can lose considerable sales in a recession, you know, a lot of different shoes, you name it, that are more.
discretionary and see the clients as well. So right now I don't own retailers. They're becoming
interesting, but I view retailers as cyclicals. We talked all about cyclicals today, so I think
that's really interesting. Now we're talking about retailers, but if you view them as cyclicals,
and then you take into consideration those margin ranges, again, I think that will help you,
but you've got to throw in a scenario of a recession, not just Amazon. Right now, everyone's
focused on Amazon, and they're not really thinking about the next recession, which I think
will be have a greater consequence to margins.
Absolutely.
Yeah.
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All right. Back to the show. And you talk about how you have two or three hundred stocks on your
buy list. I mean, how are you reading through all those earnings reports? I assume that you go in
depth, but also assume you must have some kind of a filtering process for you to have time to go
through that many reports. So what is your process for doing that? You know, I do read the reports in the
conference calls. So, you know, the calls I can get through pretty quick. You can't listen to them.
All of them. It's impossible. It would take too long. I've learned how to read these very quickly and
find out what's important. Some of the questions, you know, analysts are often very predictable.
While the Salsight analysts, you sort of ask some of the same questions, and you can often breeze through
some of those, you know, if there's something that's not important to you. So I have sort of worked on
that almost, it's not speed reading, but it's leaning through what's important and what is just
standard and analysts asking a question to help them fill out their model, right?
What's your number one tip for reading a 10K or a 10Q?
No, or the important information is.
The 10ks are so thick now because of regulation,
but a lot of the requirements now to put in information that probably isn't beneficial
in helping you value of business.
But I like to go, the description is very important.
The beginning is very important.
And then I like to go to the financial statements in the footnotes.
The financial statements are invaluable.
That's why you need more than one 10K.
You need a whole cycle of 10Ks.
You don't have to print every year, but every three years.
And that can give you a profit cycle.
If you read those 10Ks and help you get through a profit cycle,
you should be able to come up with a rough valuation just on that 10K.
One of the things that I always stress for investors that are,
you know, I get asked a lot, what's your favorite investment book,
which one was most valuable for you?
And it was the analysis and use of financial statements.
And that was something I read, you know, in the early 90s when I took the CFA program.
And that book was invaluable for me just to become literate and reading financial statements.
It was very good.
So, Eric, I want to talk about cyclicals because during our mastermind discussion that we just literally had the other night, this came up as a really nice theme.
We were talking about Fiat Chrysler with Monish Pabra and that he bought in at $4 a share and then, you know, it popped a ton.
and we were looking at the timing of whenever he would have done that.
And I think you hit on this a little bit tonight as far as understanding when the margins are really low on a cyclical, that's probably the best time to enter that position.
So today here in 2017 in the summer of 2017, we're seeing probably some of the largest margins.
We're seeing the inventory build on the automobile industry.
Would you classify this as being the absolute worst time to be investing into the automobile industry?
I cannot comment on the automobile industry.
I'm sorry.
You know, I do follow a few suppliers, and they're not seeing trough results yet.
They are seeing declines, but they're low single digits.
Nothing like you've seen in a recession.
They would not know as soon as, you know, an actual manufacturer.
But just to touch on the cyclicals, I find tremendous value in cyclicals because there isn't a home for them for a lot of investment portfolios.
You know, growth portfolios don't like them.
Oh, actually, growth portfolios like them when they are generally.
generating cyclically peak or anything. A lot of the value investors don't like them because they're
just, they're ugly, you know, and they get a lot of difficult questions in consultant meetings.
You know, I can't tell you how much consultant meetings impact how portfolio managers have
money. It's almost like, what's the consultant going to think if I buy an auto manufacturer
or an energy company? You know, I found at least over the 18 years I ran the absolute return
strategy, one of the areas I've found tremendous value in was commodities, you know, but a lot of
high quality value investors, they just won't even consider commodity companies because we're
taught in school and in all the great books that are bad businesses. But if I can buy MCF and natural
gas in the ground for a dollar and it costs $2 to find and develop that, or if I can buy an ounce
of gold in the ground fully developed for $150 an ounce and it costs $300 an ounce to find and
develop that. You know, those are things I'm interested in. You know, I view commodity businesses
more from valuing a balance sheet. You know, most of we talked about earlier about normalizing
cash flows. Most of my valuations are perpetual bond type valuations, but how I value
commodity or asset heavy companies is very different, where I want to buy their balance sheets
at a discount. I want to buy the natural gas reserve, the oil reserves, the gold reserves
at a discount to what it would cost to replace them. And that has worked very, very,
well for me over time if I can buy when no one wants them.
You know, commodity stocks are usually in the supplies of cyclicals as well.
They're usually extremely overvalued or extremely undervalued.
Rarely are they right in the middle.
You know, rarely are they fairly valued.
People want them or they hate them.
And I think now, you know, I think energy is starting to get a little more interesting.
And I, you know, the precious metal miners have had quite a run since their troughed in early
2016.
But I think a couple of those are also interesting as well.
So I'm focusing more now on asset-heavy companies where I'm finding discounts on their balance
sheets versus discounts on a free cash flow perpetual bond valuation because those remain
very expensive with rates so low, right?
Because you're valuing those as perpetual bonds and people are using these extraordinary
low discount rates to value those businesses.
So when you say a discount on the balance sheet, describe what that means to the listener.
Well, let's think about a miner, you know, a new gold mine, you know, and I'm probably
probably going to turn off half your listeners talking about a million.
No, not at all.
So their new after mine is a very profitable wine, very nice mine.
And would it cost to replace that to buy the land and to build a mine would probably be around a billion dollars.
And they have a rainy river mine that's almost complete now.
What would it cost?
You know what they pay for the land.
They bought it actually when the prices were a little lower.
That would be probably $1.3, $1.4 billion to replace that mine.
And that's a new mine.
So you can get a very accurate valuation on the replacement cost.
They have a mine in the U.S.
They have a mine in Australia, and they have the black water property in Canada, and they've done a feasibility study there where you could get arranged for the value of that mine.
So you add all that up, the mines for the replacement cost of those mines.
You subtract the billion in debt.
They'll have maybe a little less in enough cash once reading rivers complete.
And then you can come up with, you know, what that balance is worth on a replacement cost.
You do the same thing with energy companies.
Energy companies, you'll have proven developed reserves, and those, you know what it costs to buy the land, you know what it costs to drill, you know the finding development expenses.
Again, if I can buy oil in the ground that's already developed for $10 a barrel, and it costs me $20 a barrel, if I were to do it myself with a rig and buying the land, well, I much rather buy the stock.
But they have to have good balance sheet.
So this is the key, and this is what helped me survive the bear market.
in commodity stocks in 14 and 15.
You need a runway and you need to determine what is an appropriate runway.
You know, it doesn't matter if you're buying a 50 cent dollar if the company doesn't survive.
You look at Tidewater, it's a good example.
They're the market-leading energy service company with the vessels out of the oil rigs.
They were to have a $50 book value a share and it went bankrupt.
I mean, it's tremendous assets.
Over 200 almost new vessels, but it didn't matter because they didn't have the necessary liquidity in the debt covenant's kicked in.
that went to bankruptcy.
I'm trying to think of a simple way to kind of describe to our audience how you're describing this.
Would it be appropriate to say that to think of the price of the company, what it's trading for, versus the book value of the company or the equity, if we're looking at that ratio of the price to the book and we look at what it would be on the far left versus on the far right, let's say that historically the lowest it'll usually go is a price to book of 0.7.
and then on the high end maybe it's a 3.0.
Whenever you see things sliding to the left and it's getting close to maybe a 1.0 or lower,
you're buying off of those factors that price the book factor almost exclusively.
Would you agree with that?
That is very similar to where I do.
However, I do adjust the book.
So it's sort of an adjusted book.
You can have, say, for a Pan America silver, you know, they're El Colorado mine.
I'm probably mispronouncing that.
Apologies.
That mine was built in the mid-90s.
You know, so the cost basis on that mine, I think last time I looked, you know, maybe $800 million.
There's no way you could replace that mine for that type of price that because it's on historical costs.
You know, I value that mine closer to $600 million based on their current reserves and their current production.
And you could go the other way, too, where you can reduce the value of mine or the reserves.
A really simple way to think about it is I apply this to financial companies as well where I'm going to the balance.
I do not use a discount of cash flow for financial companies.
I rarely own banks because they usually trade it, you know, two times book, small cap banks.
They don't make all that sense to me.
Why would I want to buy a book of mortgages at price of the value?
But in the crisis, you know, I did buy a bank or two, but they were trading it discounts
the book.
So I think if you think of on a financial business perspective, that's a little easier to think
about than an energy company or a precious metal miner.
Just fantastic information.
I really appreciate that discussion, Eric.
We're just thrilled to have you on the show.
We can't thank you enough for making time out of your busy day.
And if people want to learn more about you, Eric, I know that you've got your blog there at
Eric cinnamon.com.
We're going to have a link for that in the show notes.
But where else can people find you if they want to reach out and ask you questions or anything?
My email is on my website.
Feel free to email me.
One of the great things about the blog is the amount of people I've met so far, like-minded
investors.
When I recommend it sending the capital back, I've felt.
like I was the only absolute return investor remaining in the world, but that's not the case.
There's a lot of us out there. It's almost feels like the silent majority.
You know, there's so many that think like absolute return investors, but they're forced to
invest in the relative world. And I think that's interesting. Please email me. And also,
I make available the quarterly management commentary for my small cap companies. Yeah, I get a lot
of emails requesting for that. So I'm always happy to send those out. Oh, that's fantastic.
Thank you.
We really enjoyed this conversation.
I know our audience is going to eat it up.
Thanks for us.
Thank you all for having me.
I really appreciate that.
All right.
So at this point in the show,
we're going to play a question from our audience.
And this question comes from Sammy.
Hi.
Preston.
I'm Stig.
Long time fan.
First time corner.
I really appreciate everything you guys have done.
I've been recently just getting into value investing
and everything that you guys have been out there is awesome.
I've listened to everything.
to every single podcast and I hope you guys can help me out and answer my question.
So to keep it simple and brief, I'm from the UK and recently, well, worldwide mostly,
that is hard to find value picks. A company that I'm looking at, Debenams, is a retail
company and my question isn't specifically for Debenams, but in general, if a company
is declining an income, as in net income in the recent years,
And the stock market has seen that and therefore has reduced its prices and it's gone down to a certain
point that it seems like a value pick because now it's undervalued.
Would you still invest in it?
Thanks for your help.
All right, Sammy.
So I really like the question and the reason I like this is because you're talking specifically
about the bottom line.
You're talking about the net income of the company and the profit that it's producing.
Whenever I hear somebody say the net income's decreasing, it's going down and the company's getting
penalized and at stock price because that net income is going down.
One of the very first things that I want to look at is the top line of the income statement
to understand if this is something that's being generated because the company has lower sales
or because maybe the company's expenses are growing or maybe a combination of both of those
things might be causing the net income to go down.
because whenever you understand what's happening on the top line and then you work your way down the
income statement, you have a much better idea and interpretation of what's going on at the business.
So let's take an example.
Let's say that we have company X and you were saying that the net income was going down,
but let's say that the revenue, the top line of the business is also going down at about the same rate as the bottom line.
When we would see this scenario play out, what that really is telling me is that the company's losing market share.
This is telling me that the assets that the company owns are not as competitive as what they were in the past if that trend is continuing to go down on their top line.
This is really, really important.
So if you don't fully understand what's happening to those assets and why they're losing their market share to some competitors, that's a red flag.
That's something you absolutely have to understand as an investor because if that continues, if that trend continues, it might be a value pick all day long.
but eventually it might turn into a bankrupt company or you might lose a ton of money on the price
that you were buying it because it continued to go down and value a lot more.
So I would tell you you got to understand what's going on with the top line.
And so everyone in the audience understands what I mean by that, whenever I say the top line,
so if we're talking about a company called Coca-Cola, the top line would be you sell one can of Coke
for a dollar, the top line is $1.
Then after you talk about the cost for the metal to make the can, the cost.
cost of the sugar, the cost of all the employees, the cost of all those things, the facilities,
all that kind of stuff.
It's subtracted out of that $1 price.
And at the bottom, you're left with maybe $0.10 or whatever the margin is at Coke.
And this is after taxes.
That's how you kind of understand what I'm talking about here from top line to bottom line.
So I'm curious what Stig has to say on this one.
So, Sammy, I think that the key words here in your questions, that's valuation and declining
earnings because clearly as an investor, that's not what you want to see. But it's always a question
about what kind of value are you getting for what you're paying for. So let me just give you an
extreme example. I know it might sound a bit silly, but imagine that you have a stock and it makes
a million dollars per year the first year. And then you have declining earnings of 100,000 each
year. Now, clearly this won't be good because you have declined earnings. But say you can buy that
stock for $1.
So, yes, I know it's a silly example.
Yes, that would be a great investment because you would get so much back.
So that's the first thing that you need to look at.
You're specifically talking about real-sell company, but the process is really the same.
You're basically just discounting the future cash flows, whether or not they're declining
or not, and then you compare that to the price today.
I think the main problem I have with companies that have declining earnings is that they're
often harder to value. I'm not talking about the math here because the math is basically the
same, but it's harder to estimate the cash flows in the future. If you do see a company with
the client earnings, it might mean that they have lost competitive advantage. They're losing
market as Preston also pointed out. So it's just harder for you to come up with a good estimate
and in valuations you would like to have a better estimate as possible so you can ensure that
you'll buy it at a discount. I think that's my main concern about planning earnings. It's not in a
itself that it is declining. It's all compared to the price.
All right, Sammy. So I really appreciate you asking this question. And because you ask this
question, we have a very special gift for you. Stig and I have designed and recorded. This took
us a long time to do. But we're finally done with this course. And the name of the course is the
intrinsic value course at the TIP Academy. And we've been working on this one so long. And we're
really excited to give it to you completely for free. You're going to learn about
what we just talked about, plus a whole lot more, all in video-based formats. So we're really excited
to give this one to you. And we really appreciate you dialing in and leaving your question for us.
All right. So if you want to get your question played like our guests here, just go to ask
theinvestors.com. And if you go to AskTheinvestors.com, you will see there's a little recorder
there. You just hit record and you can ask your question. And then it goes right into our queue.
And if we select it and played on the show, you get access to one of our courses.
All right, guys, that was all the Preston and I had this week's episode of The Investors Podcast.
We see each other again next week.
Thanks for listening to TIP.
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