We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP297: Warren Buffett & the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting Part 1 (Business Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey everyone, welcome to our show. Every year, Stig and I do a roll-up of the best questions and answers that Warren Buffett has from the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting. We thoroughly enjoyed doing these episodes, and this year was no different. I think we cover a whole lot of different topics, and without further delay, here's our first part episode of the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting. You are listening to The Investors Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Hey, everyone. Welcome to the Investors podcast. I'm your host, Preston Pish. And as always,

Starting point is 00:00:51 I'm accompanied by Stig Broderson. And we really like doing this episode. We've been doing this since the inception of our show. And we pick out some of the best questions and answers that we saw from the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting. And then we play them here on the show. And we have a little discussion after each one of them. The Q&A with Warren Buffett and Chinamonger is typically the main attraction of the event. First of all, Charlie Munger wasn't there. So you're going to hear what primarily Warren Buffett has to say, but also the CEO of Berksa Hallaway Energy, Greg Abel, who's sitting in instead of Chalemonga this year.

Starting point is 00:01:24 So I think that in itself is actually interesting that Charlie didn't made it. Or I think the way Buffett said it was that it just didn't make any sense in terms of There wasn't really any event that Charlie would make the flight out to Omaha, but the plan is still that he will be back next year. But before the actual Q&A, there was always a segment where Warren Buffett talks about Berksa Heatherway, and he does that in this annual meeting too. And he talked a lot about airlines, which was very interesting. And the very first question from Bigger Quick, that's about airlines too and why Warren Buffett

Starting point is 00:01:59 sold his airline stocks. And so what we've done just for this question is that we're just going to play what Warren Buffett said in this segment about Brexit Holloway, about the airlines, and then we're transitioning into the first question and then hear what Warren Buffett has to say. So it's just going to be for the very first question. But yeah, let's see what he has to say. I just decided that I'd made a mistake, evaluating as an understandable mistake. It was a probability weighted decision when we bought that we were getting an attractive amount for our money. money when investing across the airlines business. So we bought roughly 10% of the four largest airlines. It's not 100% of what we didn't April, but we probably paid seven or eight billion. We were getting a billion dollars roughly of earnings now. We're getting a billion dollars of dividends, but we felt our share of the underlying earnings was a billion dollars, and we felt that that number was more likely to go up and down over a period of time that it would be cyclical,

Starting point is 00:02:59 obviously. It was as if we bought the whole company, but we bought it through the New York Stock Exchange, and we can only effectively buy 10% roughly of the four. And we treat it mentally exactly as if we were buying a business. The companies we bought were well managed, did a lot of things right. It's a very, very, very difficult business because you're dealing with millions of people every day. And if something goes wrong for one percent of them, they are very unhappy. The airline and I may be wrong and I hope I'm wrong, but it changed in a very major way. And it's obviously changed in the fact that their four companies are each going to borrow, perhaps an average of at least 10 or 12 billion each way.

Starting point is 00:03:43 You have to pay that back out of earnings over some period of time. I mean, you're $10 or $12 billion worse off if that happens. And of course, in some cases they're having to sell stock or sell the right to buy a stock of these prices. And that takes away from the upside down. And I don't know whether two or three years from now that as many people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year. They may and they may not. But the future is much less clear to me how the business will turn out through absolutely no fault of the airlines themselves.

Starting point is 00:04:16 That's something that was a low probability event happened, and it happened to hurt particularly the travel business, the hotel business, cruise business. but the airline business in particular, and of course the airline business has the problem that if the business comes back 70% or 80%, the aircraft don't disappear. You've got too many planes. It didn't look that way when the orders were placed a few months ago, and the world changed. Wish them well, but it's one of the businesses we have. We have businesses we own directly that are going to be hurt significantly. The virus will cost Berkshire money.

Starting point is 00:04:53 It doesn't cost money because of her stock. and various other businesses moves around if XYZ, which is, say, is one of our holdings, and we own it as a business and we like the business, the stock goes down 20 or 30 or 40 percent. We don't feel we're poorer in that situation. We felt we were poorer in terms of what actually happened to those airline businesses just as if we don't 100 percent of them.

Starting point is 00:05:16 So that explains those sales, which are relatively minor, but I want to make sure that nobody thinks that involves a market prediction. We were not disappointed at all in the businesses they were being run in the management, but we did come to a different opinion on it. And they're the four largest U.S. Airlines, it's American Airlines and Dell Airlines and Southwest Airlines and United Continental. And I think collectively they, at least 80% of the revenue passenger miles and it is flown in the United States. And they have significant international flying, too, is excluding Southwest. So we like those airlines, but the world has changed for the airlines.

Starting point is 00:05:57 And I don't know how it's changed. And I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way. I don't know whether the Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of an extended period if it happens that we're semi-shut down in the economy. Who knows how we come out of this? But I think that there's certain industries. And unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt, forced an effect shut down by events that are far beyond their control.

Starting point is 00:06:27 Really nothing to add one. Okay. If we got another trailer here. I didn't intend to use that as a line, but you've covered it well. We would have bought other airlines too, incidentally, but those were the four big ones. And those ones we could put some money into it, and we put whatever it was, seven or eight billion into it. And we did not take out anything like seven or eight billion.

Starting point is 00:06:47 And that was my mistake. But it was, it's always a problem. if there are things on the lower levels of probabilities that happen sometimes, and it happened to the airlines, and I'm the one who made the decision. I really like this conversation. I think Warren Buffett has or sometimes can't have a habit of not talking too much about his positions and why he just bought and sold. I guess it's also to shield himself from too much confirmation bias, but I really like this

Starting point is 00:07:13 discussion. And I think that one of the key learning outcomes for me was whenever he talked about probable mistake. And what he means by that is that if you played this scenario an infinite amount of time, the decision to buy airlines, it probably would be a good decision. So what he mentioned then was he paid between $7 and $8 billion for around $1 billion in profits, and he expected that to increase. So yeah, it probably would be a good idea in most scenarios. But then because of COVID-19 happening, this situation completely changed. the intrinsic value of his airline stocks. And I think it's very important to then say that you

Starting point is 00:07:56 cannot control the outcome, but you can always control your decision. So I found that insightful, and I think it's very interesting to note that Buffett bought Delta stocks back in February for $44. And right now, it's trading at $22. And he actually said to beg a quick at the time that he didn't intend to sell any of those stocks due to COVID-19. And not long before that, Delta was actually trading at $60. Now, what then later happened was that Buffett first sold Delta, also a position in Southwest Airlines back in March. But the way that that was conducted was just a bit weird

Starting point is 00:08:36 because he basically just took his position down to a little less than 10%. And it looked like it was really just for legal regulation purposes that he did that, is the reason why we even had information about what he did in February was because he held more than 10% stake. So it just kind of looked like a trimming. And then we just saw that sold out completely of his position. So to me, that was quite interesting. And the other thing was that Buffett said in that interview with Pickett Quakee back in February

Starting point is 00:09:05 that only three out of those four major airline positions, that was his. The fourth was either Todd or Tat. He didn't say which one of the fourth that was not his. But what he told us here was that he made the decision for the entire portfolio that all them should be sold off. And I kind of felt that was very interesting because I was quite certain up to today really that Ted and Todd would completely mend their own portfolio. So that was kind of interesting or perhaps it was just his way of saying that he talked to them about it and then they made decision, who knows. But I'm curious to hear about your thoughts,

Starting point is 00:09:39 Preston. It's kind of fascinating to see how he was talking about this. So the big big, The point that I had was the one he talked about, the borrowing was going to be between $10 billion per company that he owned in order to just offset what they were going through. So when you're looking at something from an enterprise to earnings level, so we mention enterprise value a lot. So for people that are listening to the show, they might hear the term, they might not understand the term. But Stig and I and some other value investors really like to look at the earnings a company makes, relative to that enterprise value. So when you're looking at that proportion,

Starting point is 00:10:20 let's just say that the enterprise value of a company is $10. It makes $1 of earnings. Therefore, we think that just in really rough estimates that the company should probably yield about a 10% annual return based on those kind of metrics. So the reason we like enterprise value is because it also accounts for the debt of the company. So let's say a company has no debt. going back to the example of $10, we'd say that the enterprise value of the company is $10.

Starting point is 00:10:47 But if the company had, let's say, another $10 of debt and its market cap was $10, you'd add those two numbers together in order to get your enterprise value. There's also a little bit of a cash calculation in there, but I'm just going to act like that doesn't exist for this really easy example. But let's say the company had $10 of debt, $10 of market cap for a enterprise value of 20. So if that company still has $1 of earnings, you're not. not getting a 10% return, you're getting a 5% return because you're accounting for the debt

Starting point is 00:11:18 in the valuation, the enterprise value of the company. So that's the easiest way I can break it down. So when I hear Buffett talking about each one of these companies are going to have to take on an additional $10 billion of debt to be able to sustain what's happening, in my mind I'm saying, yep, he's doing an enterprise value calculation, he's adding that into the market cap of the company, and he's having a reduction in the percent that he's expecting it to get back from that company because of the debt implications, the burden that those companies now have. So I think that's an important point for people to think about that he'll never get into and explain in that way, but he says it real casually like, oh, yeah, each one of the companies

Starting point is 00:11:59 are going to have to take on $10 billion of debt. He's on to the next comment, but that's a gem of a comment for people to understand how he's thinking about valuations. One thing the real start out to me was that Buffett said, or at least between the lines, I have a hard time valuing these companies. So this was not Buffett necessarily saying airlines will be a bad investment the next five or ten years. He was more saying, I can't own it because it's too difficult for me to value. To me, that was just something I think that was really worth noting.

Starting point is 00:12:26 And he knew how to do that before. Airline traveling, it's such a commoditized business and it was so easy to make so many projections, at least if you look at historically, a lot of good things happening, low, old price, that would be really good if you own an airline, which is the major expense. But if you don't know that your top line anymore, it used to be so that you had a reasonably good idea of the top line. It typically also followed some sort of function of GDP. That's just not the case anymore. And Buffett just didn't know how to make that calculation. How can you own something, but you don't know what's worth? I totally agree with that. He's looking at it. He's looking at

Starting point is 00:13:03 it and saying, this is too hard for me to come up with a future value. He's saying, I think there's a major change in buying habits for the consumer of this. Because, I mean, come on, let's face the facts. I think most business travel can be done virtually and the impact is very minimal, right? I think this is his concern. He's looking at, oh, the next six months, these businesses are going to realize how invaluable all that travel that they've been doing is. And I think that's going to result in a business habit change. Is what I think he's seeing this. The final thing that I think is really important is he wasn't deep in the money on these positions, right? And when you're not deep in the money and you're having trouble calculating what you think the future value is going to be and you think there's going to be a change in the consumer habits, it's a perfect time to offload and go somewhere else where you think that you do have an advantage because there's no tax implications to that.

Starting point is 00:13:55 So I think those are the big points on that one. So, okay, we're going to go ahead and play the next question here. The next question comes from Robert Thomas from Toronto, Canada, and he says, Warren, why are you recommending listeners to buy now, yet you're not comfortable buying now as evidenced by your huge cash position? Well, as I explained, the position isn't that huge when I look at worst case possibilities. I would say that there are things that I hope they don't happen, but that doesn't mean they won't happen. I mean, for example, in our insurance business, we could have the world's, or the country's number one hurricane that it's ever had, but that doesn't preclude the fact we could have the biggest earthquake a month later. So we don't prepare ourselves for a single problem. We prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum. I mean, 2008 and the 9, you didn't see all the problems the first day when really what really kicked it off was when the first.

Starting point is 00:14:55 Freddie and Fannie, the GSEs, went into conservatorship in early September. And then when money markets, funds broke the buck, I mean, there are things to trip other things. And we take a very much a worst case scenario into mind that probably is a considerably worst case than most people do. So I don't look at it as huge. And I'm not recommending that people buy stocks today or tomorrow or next week or next month. I think it all depends on your circumstances, but you shouldn't buy stocks unless you expect, in my view, you expect to hold them for a very extended period and you are prepared financially and psychologically to hold them the same way you would hold a farm and never look at a quote and never. You don't need to pay attention to them.

Starting point is 00:15:45 I mean, the main thing to do, and you're not going to pick the bottom and nobody else can pick it for you or anything of a sort. You've got to be prepared when you buy a stock, have it to down 50% or more and be comfortable with it as long as you're comfortable with the holding. And I pointed out, I think a year, maybe two years ago on the annual report, I pointed out that there have been three times in Berkshire's history when the price of Berkshire stock went down 50%, three different times. Now, if you owed it on borrowed money, you could have been cleaned out. There wasn't anything wrong with Berkshire when those three times occurred. Some people are more subject to fear than others. It's like the virus it strikes. Some people with much greater ferocity than others.

Starting point is 00:16:26 And fear is some people can handle a psychology. If you can't handle it psychologically, then you really shouldn't know it sucks because you're going to buy and saw them the wrong time. I love this response. I think that what he's saying here is so counter to Wall Street thinking and make a quick buck. This guy's running a business. When I hear somebody talk like this, he's running a business and he's thinking about the employees that work for him so that they will continue to have a business to walk into or to work from. He's mitigating risks that other people don't see.

Starting point is 00:17:03 He's mitigating risks that could be 100 years storms, could be 500 years storms through his actions. Now, a lot of people might not like the amount of risk that he's calculating and then he's preparing for and the fact that the stock point. price might not be keeping up with other companies that are levering and doing all these things in order to produce results that outperform. But when I hear that, my God, I know I think about my own business through a very similar light. I could give two craps whether I'm outpacing this or outpacing that. And I just love this response.

Starting point is 00:17:39 I really like this. And, you know, as a person that has thrown a lot of rocks at Warren for having such a large cash positioning and telling people to buy the S&P 500. and not buying it with his massive cash position, I think that this response talks to how he views insurance, how he views, I think his comment there with the, I could have a hurricane and then I could have another major 100-year event back to back, and then they're going to be looking at Berkshire Hathaway to cough up some money

Starting point is 00:18:05 in order to take care of this. So I think that's how he's viewing the world right now. I think he's looking at the lens of there's some interesting things happening in the market and he feels like he needs to be prepared for a very, very rainy day here in the future. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord,

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Starting point is 00:22:11 hearing... Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at Shopify.com slash WSB. Go to Shopify.com slash WSB. That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right, back to the show. The other thing is that he is sitting on $130 plus billion in cash, but as Bavi Thabwe, has just said repeatedly, people always compare it to his equity holding, which is I think at the end of the last quarter was like 180, probably more than 200 billion now. It's like, that's not the right equation because he has for hundreds of billions in operating companies. So it does not feel he has as much cash as people tell him that he has. So I think that's one thing. But I really wanted to play this question because Buffett is so

Starting point is 00:23:00 often misunderstood whenever it comes to whether or not you should be invested in the stock market. I've seen hundreds of interviews with Warren Buffett over the years, and he's so often asked this question. You have this journalist who is like, oh, is now the time to invest in the stock market? And I kind of feel that question is unfair. And really, what Buffett is talking about, and he spent, I think, almost an hour before Q&A session where he talked about betting on America, like why, if you bought an index, you just held on to how much money you have made.

Starting point is 00:23:32 And I think that it's so unfair because the headline after an interview is typically like Buffett says that now is the time to buy stocks. And that's just the complete opposite of Buffett's view. Like Buffett's view is bets and hold on. Don't try and time the market for the vast, vast, vast majority of people, really. But I definitely understand why the question was asked because especially for retail investors and even for many institutional investors, it can mentally be very hard to sit on cash. And you really always look for the right time to be fully invested.

Starting point is 00:24:10 To say that you're sitting on 10 or 20% cash and you're like, it's now the time to go into the stock market. But that's not at all how Buffett looks at it because he doesn't buy that broad world market index. That's not what he's looking into doing for his own portfolio. So it doesn't really make any sense. He's looking at specific businesses. And I think one of the biases that we have, and I think that might also have been, but the person

Starting point is 00:24:34 who asked the question might be prone to that bias is that we tend to think very short term. You know, right now we look back at the peaks in February just before COVID-19. And it really looked like Buffett has missed out on this major opportunity in March. And so listening to this in May, it might be easy to look at Buffett's like, oh, my God, you should have acted. But there are quite a few things that we need to factor into this, just like the Elon stocks we talked about before. It took months for him to build up that position, $7,8 billion. It takes time to build a position in public stocks, especially whenever you have that type of money. I think that whenever I saw the financial statements, I was like, oh, I thought you would have put in tens of billions of dollars.

Starting point is 00:25:20 But after listening to his responses, I think it makes a lot more sense why he's still cautious of what's happening right now. The only other thing that I would add stick, why I think it was a very fair question is when you look at how he's been allocating his free cash flow over the last two years, a significant portion of that free cash flow has been going to cash or into really short duration bonds, which are cash equivalents. And so I think a lot of people, including myself, has been screaming, hey, he's going on TV and saying you should be an owner of equities, but yet you look at. at how he's allocating his free cash flow in the last two years and 70% of it's going to cash.

Starting point is 00:26:03 So I think it was a very fair question. I think it was a very fair response and how he's looking at it. And I think to be quite honest with you, I think he's looking at GEICO as a huge vulnerability to how he's positioned going into this. And rightfully so, I think that when you look at GEICO and in the past you used to invest the float and make decent returns on the float. And now you can't do that. But as the parent company, which is a fully owned operational subsidiary, that's what

Starting point is 00:26:34 GEICO is to Berkshire Hathaway. The fact that he fully owns that thing, he's fully responsible for any missteps or any issues that the thing has at this point. I think the insurance industry is not a place I would want to own GEICO today based on where interest rates are at, right? I mean, what's the advantage to him other than the liabilities that he talked about in that response? I think it's a big concern. And it's amazing how just kind of how things go in phases.

Starting point is 00:27:05 It used to be his biggest asset was GEICO and how he could invest that float. But now that you got interest rates pegged at 0% and hell, they're going negative, right? That becomes a liability at that point, especially if you're talking about being a parent company and you fully own the thing. So I don't know. I think it's a very, very interesting conversation. And I'm sure there's Blazers deeper than we're even talking about right now that I think if you got worn in the room and had no cameras on, I think he would say Geico is a little scary for him right now. I think that looking at Geico specifically, there are a lot of different moving parts that really make that interesting. One thing is the interest rate, as you said, I think that they

Starting point is 00:27:46 still make a decent margin on the underwriting still. And the other thing is, the way that they're position the way that these deals are renewed. I'm not too concerned about that. You can even make the argument that to some extent, at least forward-looking when something like COVID-19 happens, whenever there's fear, there's a lot of money to be made in insurance. And like very, very short-term, you can even say, especially GEICO with their business model, a lot of those claims that they would typically have, they probably won't have at the moment. But I think a much more serious issue for not just GEICO, but the insurance industry is that that industry is really looking to be disrupted, like heavily.

Starting point is 00:28:26 And it just in so many ways in the way that you file claims, in the way that you make new risk evaluations of people who are on the other end of that underwriting, with all the new technology that's coming, it's already changed in a major way over the last decade. I think the insurance industry would be almost unrecognizable in the next decade or two. So I guess that's more my issue. And if you're really, really interested in learning more about that, I would actually highly, highly recommend that you would listen to the future is faster than you think, where there's a long segment about how the insurance industry will be disrupted.

Starting point is 00:29:00 The last thing I just want to say to this is I think that could come some really interesting deals coming up. And a lot of this depends on the Fed too. But there is definitely a lack on the real economy, if you can put it like that. And that can lead to some file sale prices for some of the Fed too. of the major companies. And I think that's also one of the reasons why Buffett might be looking like he's sitting on his hands right now. I just want to add, I agree with you. I think that there's a lot of margins still left by owning GEICO. Please don't take my comment as being that it's a bad company

Starting point is 00:29:36 because it's not a bad company. It makes a ton of profit. I think relatively speaking compared to where it was 10, 15, 20 years ago, it's a way different company in his portfolio than it used to be. Okay, we're going to go ahead and play the next question here. All right, this next question comes from Lee and Dar. And his question is, in the last financial crisis, Berkshire acted as a lender of support for eight different deals. Despite the injection of expensive capital through preferred stocks and securing warrants, these companies were, in fact, paying for the sign of confidence from Berkshire in the

Starting point is 00:30:07 midst of a crisis, and that was invaluable. Today, we have QE, infinity, low interest rates, and hungry hedge funds. even though the economy has deteriorated rapidly over the last few months, why have we not acted as a lender of support? We haven't seen anything attractive. Frankly, it wasn't predicated on this, but the Federal Reserve did the right thing, and they did it very promptly, which they should have, and I salute them for it. But that means that a lot of companies that needed money and probably should have done their financing a little earlier, but they're perfectly decent companies got the chance to finance in huge ways in the last five weeks. thereabouts. I mean, it's set records. Some companies have come back twice, a number of very big companies that didn't bother to extend out their borrowings, came a couple times. Berkshire actually

Starting point is 00:30:53 raised some more money. We don't need it, but I think it's still a good idea over time. And then there are some pretty marginal companies that have also had access to money. So there is no shortage of funds at race, which we would not invest at. So we have not done anything because we don't see anything that attractive to do. Now, that could change very quickly or it may not change. But in 2008 and nine, the truth is, we weren't buying those things to make a statement to the world. They may have made a statement to the world to some extent, and I'm glad that they did if they did. But we made them because they seemed intelligent things to do, and markets were such that we didn't really have much competition. Now, it turned out that we would have been a lot better off if we'd waited

Starting point is 00:31:35 four or five months to do similar things. So my timing was actually terrible. 2008 or nine, but what was available was so attracted that even though my timing was terrible, we still came out a little bit better than okay. What we did was not designed to make a statement. It was designed to take advantage of what we thought were very attractive terms, but they were terms that nobody else was willing to offer at that time because the market was in a state of panic. And the market in equities was in a state of panic for a short period of time. The virus broke out and became apparent. And the debt market was frozen. or in the process of freezing, and that changed dramatically when the Fed acted,

Starting point is 00:32:14 but who knows what happens next week or next month or next year? The Fed doesn't know. I don't know, and nobody knows. There's a lot of different scenarios that can play out, and under some scenarios, we'll spend a lot of money, and other scenarios we won't. Greg, you've been watching what's been happening. Yeah, well, I think your comment on the Fed, Warren,

Starting point is 00:32:34 because, as you know, interestingly, when it was first occurring, there were calls coming in, not the size of, of transactions were interested in, nor companies we were inclined to act upon. But there was that general interest out there as people were in a difficult point in time, I, looking at their balancing and deciding what they were going to do. But the reality is those companies were not of interest in. Post basically effectively March 23rd, the companies have been able to act. And Warren touched on it at Berkshire Hathaway Energy, post the Fed action, we actually, issued $4 billion of securities that was associated with debts or obligations we had maturing,

Starting point is 00:33:19 some short-term obligations we wanted to clearly lengthen out. And we pre-funded one of our capital programs at Pacific Corp, with the thought this was the time to get the funds in place such that we could proceed with what is really an excellent opportunity, both for Pacific Corp, our customers and ultimately for the Berkshire shareholders. So we've taken action within Berkshire, as Warren noted. This is a very good time to borrow money, which means it may not be such a great time to lend money. It's good for the country that it's a good time to borrow money.

Starting point is 00:33:51 Not good for Berkshire, particularly, although we borrowed some money, but we put our money where our boughs. What I found interesting about how they responded to this, so Becky asks a great question, and they're able to basically take a question of like, why are you guys not lending money into the market and taking advantage of this like you did in 0809? And they just smoothly say, well, not only are we not doing that, we're also issuing debt and raising cash because rates are 0%. But they did it in this like really smooth and slow way of, I mean,

Starting point is 00:34:26 oh my God. I looked into one of the deals that Berkshire did back in February and they raised a billion euros five-year notes for zero percent because it might come in handy at some point in time to have cash laying around. I think that was very, very interesting. But you know, I really like this question because it was comparing 2008 to today and it really gave us a chance to talk about why it's a different situation, but obviously also some of the things that we can learn from that time. And the one example that the person asking that question might have been thinking of would

Starting point is 00:35:02 be the famous deal that he made with Goldman Sachs for $5 billion back in 2008. And Buffett more or less dictated those terms. And he just made billions and billions of dollars on that deal in a very short period of time because Goldman Sachs was so much in the pickle at the time. And I can't help but noticing that 2008 also was an election year. And it's election year now, too. But it's also very different in so many ways because back then that definitely weren't a strong support from the voters of, hey, let's bail out Goldman Sachs.

Starting point is 00:35:36 That was not what people were talking about back then. And it was just very different in terms of supporting the system. It was still heavily subsidized, even though not nearly to the same extent it is today. And you can even argue that we're just getting started with that. And I also think that Buffett was a very, very humble whenever he talked about that he should have waited back in 2008, that he was too early with some of the deals. And yes, it is very, very difficult to time. But I think there's a few different factors that place in here.

Starting point is 00:36:05 I definitely don't think that he's saying this because he's thinking about 2008. But I think that he has changed his perception or he's changed his opinion on how severe COVID-19 is. And we just talked about before buying Delta in February and then selling at much, much lower prices in March and even lower prices later. So I think it was just like, okay, this is just more. than I thought, and now we need to act on that. And the other thing I would like to mention is that one deal that really goes under the radar compared to the Goldman Sachs deal is what happened in 2011, whenever he made a fantastic deal with Bank of America. So this was the 6% preferred share deal, and he came with warrants that he could purchase at a fixed price of

Starting point is 00:36:51 $7.14. And to me, that was very interesting. And he had the right to do that the next 10 years. And so in a very depressed price where Buffett made more than three X plus dividends. So I guess that's my way of saying that sometimes to make the good deals, even if you have a huge crisis, it just takes time. And your list that brain might be screaming to you that you should act now. In the case of Bank of America, you should wait for years to make that deal. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination.

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Starting point is 00:40:45 Yeah, and talking about the Goldman deal, so yeah, he supplied $5 billion to Goldman in a time of need back then. But there was convertibility clauses to common stock on these deals. And I think that's something that people lose sight of. And I think something that that question is, for a person who doesn't know the history on it, would hear, oh, he was providing cash to the market back then. And he was, but he was also orchestrating the conversion of that into common stock. And I think the strike on that Goldman Stacks was like 115. And back then, Goldman was trading at like $70 or $80 when he did that deal. And so when he eventually exercised it, I think the price of Goldman was well over $200 a share.

Starting point is 00:41:30 So his $15 strike was an immediate 100% gain as soon as he exercised that option. And so those are important pieces to this, especially when you get into how he does preferred deals that are typically a lot more complex than just, are you issuing debt or are you buying debt? I mean, there's a lot more to it than that. And I think it's hard to extract some of that information out of some of the questions. All right. So we're going to go ahead and play the next question here. And here it goes. That gets kind of to another question that came in from Mark McNicholas in Chicago, Illinois.

Starting point is 00:42:03 He says Berkshire itself has a Fort Knox-like balance sheet, but some of its operating companies may be tight on cash during the pandemic. Would Berkshire consider sending cash to its operating companies to, one, ensure that they can get through the pandemic? And two, allow them to increase market share while their competitors struggle. Well, we've sent money to a few, and we're in a position to do that. We're not going to send money indefinitely to anything where it looks like their future. has just changed dramatically from what it was years ago or even six months ago. We made that decision in terms of the airline business. We took money out of the business, basically, even at a substantial loss.

Starting point is 00:42:42 And we will not fund a company where we think that it's going to chew up money in the future. We started out with a company like that in our textile business at Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, and we went for 20 years trying to think we could solve something that wasn't that. that's solvable. So we are not in the business of subsidizing any companies with shareholders money if people want to do that with their own money, but we're not going to do it on their behalf. But we have advanced money. We're perfectly ready to advance money, gaining market share and all that. That may happen, but the companies that need money probably, market share is not their number one problem. I'll put it that way. Yeah, it's interesting when we look at our different

Starting point is 00:43:24 companies as we went into the pandemic or we're addressing the COVID-19 crisis, Obviously, the first focus by our management team and appropriately was our employees and effectively making sure they're safe and that the business environment were in, that they could continue to operate. Then we quickly move to looking at where our customers were in this cycle. What was the underlying demand within the business? And to great credit to our managers, they very much have adjusted their businesses consistent with the underlying needs and demands of our customers.

Starting point is 00:44:00 So effectively they're moving with the customer, meaning very few of our businesses have actually required funds. Some have, and as Warren said, we've advanced the funds to them, but the businesses have really reacted in a way where they're managing consistent with where the markets at, i.e. the demand for their products. Berkshire is almost certain to generate cash. I mean, nothing's 100% certain, but as far as far as, Greg mentioned at Berkshire Athaway Energy, we had some short-term financing. We don't have

Starting point is 00:44:30 short-term financing at any degree. We'll never get ourselves in a position where we have a lot of money that can come do tomorrow. And people that were financing heavily with commercial paper and then found their business stop, well, you've seen what's happened to the airlines. I mean, they need money. Cruise lines need money. Some businesses that's just the nature of what they're in. Berkshire will never get in a position where it needs money. We factor in some things. things that are not ridiculously unlikely. And I'm not going to spell out scenarios because to some extent, if you start spelling out scenarios,

Starting point is 00:45:04 you may increase the chance of them happening. So it's not something that we really want to talk about a lot. But our position will be to be to stay of Fort Knox, but we don't need $130 or $35 billion. But we need a lot of money always available. And that means we own nothing but treasury bills. I mean, we've never owned, we never buy commercial paper. We don't count on bank lines.

Starting point is 00:45:24 A few of our subsidiaries have them. but we basically want to be in a position to get through anything. And we hope that doesn't happen, but you can't rule out the possibility any more than in 1929. You could rule out the possibility that you would be waiting until 1955 or the end of 1954 to get even. Anything can happen. We want to be prepared for anything.

Starting point is 00:45:49 But we also want to do big things. If the prices are attractive, as Greg said, there was a period right before the Fed acted. We were starting to get calls. They weren't attractive calls, but we were getting calls, and the companies we were getting calls from after the Fed acted, a number of them were able to get money in the public market, frankly, at terms of we wouldn't have given it to them.

Starting point is 00:46:12 So I really like this question, and like the question, because the person asking really gives Buffett a chance to highlight the advantage of Berksa Heatherway to be able to be able to. to freely move, tax-free move around cash in the organization where it's put best to use. And that's really whenever it pays off to be a conglomerate where you have a great capital allocator in charge, which is surely the case here for Brexit Holloway. But what I like even more about this is how Warren Buffett talks about that he doesn't want to subsidize companies that need cash because they're in a difficult situation.

Starting point is 00:46:47 And he mentioned airlines. Airlines are in a tricky spot. so he's selling his position in airlines. He doesn't want to subsidize them for the sake of doing that because they are now part of the Berkshire family. And it's very interesting because in a way you could even say that Buffett is being penalized for being capitalist. And what I mean by that is that there are so many people, especially the government,

Starting point is 00:47:09 they have a strong incentive and perhaps for good reason to why major airlines or company like Boeing are so important to the infrastructure, so important for so many parts, of the US. But you don't have to think like that whenever you are a businessman. You're just thinking what makes sense to quote-unquote subsidize, what makes sense to invest in? Where do I get the best return? Not which companies should I save for the sake of saving them.

Starting point is 00:47:41 And if those companies haven't been bailed out by the Fed, I would be very interested to see what would have happened. And perhaps that will happen. I do think for the record, though, that we will continue to see a lot of companies being saved for the time to come, not just this year, perhaps also going to next year. But America is to see what happens then. Whenever that credit truly freezes, how will Buffett act? And I think that's whenever we're going to see him bring back that elephant gun that he talked

Starting point is 00:48:09 about for so long making those huge acquisitions. And that's the time whenever we're going to see a new Bank of America deal or Goldman Sachs deal. Well, Buffett is basically thinking like he owns an insurance company, which is coincidentally also does. But he is thinking that at the right price, he can more or less insure and invest in anything. But it's just not a track to right now, not the way things are with the Fed and the current mild conditions. Yeah, I don't really have too much to add on this one. I think he's just an effect, he's saying, if we think that the business will continue to have viability into the future, we own it as a wholly operational subsidiary.

Starting point is 00:48:49 Well, we'll supply them some cash to help them get through that so that they don't have to borrow. But for the most part, and this is how he's always treated his businesses, is, hey, run your business and update me on how things are progressing. And if you get in a world of hurt and we think that you're still viable, we'll help you out. But for companies like the airlines, I think for a person who's listening to this that's not intimately familiar with all the assets on their balance sheet, the airlines were a non-operative. were a non-operational subsidiary, 10% holdings, right? It's real simple for them to just say, we're done with this and we don't have any type of obligations to you in the future when we sell all your stock. But when he has, I don't know how many operational subsidiaries they have, what is it, like 80 or 70, completely fully owned operational subsidiaries, they've got to treat those

Starting point is 00:49:37 businesses a little bit differently than they treat a Delta or some type of just equity position that they bought off the open market. So that might be. lost a little bit in the response as well. But I think those were the businesses that they were talking about in their response. And if they felt like, I know that they own Encyclopedia Britannica, or at least they had, they might have sold it by now. But I've seen that on their display at the shareholders meeting. And for me, it's just like, I don't know how that business is still possibly making money. So if they come to you and are saying, we need cash, I'm sure they're saying, sorry, we're not going to provide it. Right. I think they're just trying to, his comment is pretty

Starting point is 00:50:15 straightforward as far as where they're providing capital and where they're not. All right, at this point, we're going to continue this conversation next week. We've got another four questions to play. We just thoroughly enjoy doing this. I don't know if the audience enjoys it, but I know Stig and I really enjoy doing these. All right, so we're going to play a question from the audience, and this question comes from Morris. Hey, Preston and Stig, I love the podcast. Today, my question is regarding inflation. I'm a relatively new investor and don't understand the phrase cash is trash. When I think about it, in an inflationary period, security prices are bound to drop.

Starting point is 00:50:51 And while the value of my dollar is decreasing, the ratio between the value of my dollar and the value of securities is higher than ever before. That makes me think, is this phrase only referring to gold and other commodity types? Please explain where my reasoning may be wrong. Thanks. This one could go on for a while. I just knew you would say that, Preston. And, you know, the phrase cash is trash that you're referring to for people that aren't familiar with where that came from.

Starting point is 00:51:21 So this was Ray Dalio at Davos. He was sitting there talking to the squawk box crew. And he made the comment, cash is trash. And it just happened to coincide with like market highs. And then you had the big COVID-19 meltdown. And everybody in all of finance has been just beating Ray Dalio over the head with that quote. And I think when Ray said it, he was saying it, so he has a LinkedIn profile and he posts a lot of great articles on how he's seeing the market. I'm seeing the market from a very similar. Heck,

Starting point is 00:51:59 I think you could just say that I'm copying a lot of the stuff that Ray Dalio is stating as far as how he's seeing the currencies today. And what he's really getting at as far as cash is trash is through monetary policy, the dollar, every fiat currency around the world is being devalued in a major and massive way, unprecedented way. The reason you're not seeing that happen, the reason that you're not seeing a 1920s scenario, at least not today you haven't seen this scenario, of the fiat currency just debasing itself in an unprecedented way is because the way that the money that's being freshly printed is nesting itself into the economy. So if you would follow a new freshly printed, and when I say printed,

Starting point is 00:52:48 I mean keystroked dollar bill that's been added into the system, and you could follow the path of where it ends up, almost like you're following water in a stream going downstream. Where does it end up? Well, I think what you would find is that those freshly printed dollars, those freshly printed euros, all these fiat currencies that are being debased are nesting themselves into securities. They're either ending up in the bond market or they're ending up in the stock market. And then they dwell there and they don't move. And so when Ray says cash is trash, what he's referring to in a very simple couple word statement is actually hundreds, if not thousands of words deep in understanding. And if for anybody that really, really truly wants to understand Ray Dallio's thoughts on all of this, I would tell you to pick up his book, Big

Starting point is 00:53:40 debt crises, and it goes into excruciating detail talking about all of these dynamics. And so when you see that and a person who's saying, well, how is cash trash when the stock market just keeps on going up? Well, if I've owned bond since 1981, they just keep going up. How is cash trash in those environments? And if you're talking relatively speaking and you're talking about the timeframe of 1981 until now, it's not on a relative basis. It's those other securities have gone up and they have been a way better position than

Starting point is 00:54:16 cash. But what I think Ray is talking about and the drumbeat that he's beating, if you're viewing it from a lens 10, 20 years from now and you're looking back at when he was saying this and he was saying that Fiat currencies that we're going to have to have a new monetary system, a new currency system in the coming years, it's going to look like total brilliance when it's viewed from that spot in the future back to now. And so it's really, really difficult for somebody to wrap their head around all these nuances, especially when they're said in a cute blurb that is really easy to say and really easy to iterate, but without the understanding of where it's coming

Starting point is 00:54:56 from, I think it can be lost a massive amount of confusion. So Stig, kind of curious to hear your thoughts. Yeah, I think you bring up a good point with that interview with Redalue. I know I'll come off like a bitter grumpy old man. And I think the interview was like five or seven minutes. And I think the interviewers probably interrupted him like 10 times or something like that. And I just remember it was so frustrating listening to because I wanted to hear about this monetary system. I wanted to hear about like what's going to happen. Why is Cass trash? Sometimes in life there are so complicated topics including currency systems that just can't explain on CNBC for 35 seconds. Unfortunately, I would have loved to have that conversation just drag on.

Starting point is 00:55:42 But I like that question for a bunch of different reasons. I think you can look at it from many different angles. One thing is the typical Warren Buffett way of looking at this. He's saying if you bought the Dow in 1900 at $66, now it would be trading at $28,538 at the end of 2019. So in that sense, yes, Cass is true. truly trash. And then there's the component of inflation. So obviously you can't get the same $400 today as you could in 1900. So that's definitely one part of it. The other part of it is to understand that CAS is fantastic in many ways because it is basically a call option on all

Starting point is 00:56:25 asset classes because you have the flexibility to immediately go into different investment opportunities. So in that way, it's a good thing. You can also say it's a good thing to have as a hedge. For instance, for those of us who had a cash position going into this drawdown in the market, we don't experience the same drawdown simply because you cast more or less maintained the same value if you just discount that for inflation. So you can look at it for different angles, but generally, if we look at this historically definite, you can say cash is trash. That opportunity costs for having cash lying around.

Starting point is 00:56:57 We were talking definitely about a minor allocation of your portfolio. The other thing I want to say about this is going back to. this inflation and going back to Redalio. He has been talking during this interview where he had 35 seconds or whatnot because one of those questions was actually, so what should you invest in? And then he said, you should buy gold and he had, well, at least 12 seconds to explain why he wants to hold gold. Sorry, I'll stop bashing that soon. But because gold has historically been a good head, especially for unexpected inflation. It's very important for you to understand the difference between expected and unexpected inflation. If there's expected inflation, it's already

Starting point is 00:57:40 priced into the price of gold, which is also why you saw whenever Nixon took to the US, effectively the world of the gold standard in 71, you saw that huge spike almost right away. So I think that's important to understand. Another authority in this that I would like to bring up is Jim Rickards, our friends Jim Richards, who we interviewed here on the podcast multiple times. I just read his book Aftermath here a few weeks ago, and he talks a lot about what would you do whenever there is a crisis? Keep in mind, this book is from 2019. And you talked about how to position yourself if you don't know if you see massive inflation or perhaps even deflation. And I think a lot of people are sitting right now and thinking, hmm, we have this massive money printing. That should mean high inflation, even though they might not see those numbers measured. in the official numbers, and they're thinking about deflation. They might be listening to the episode with Jeff Booth here a few weeks ago, and they might be thinking about the impact of technology, all the deflationary pressures that you

Starting point is 00:58:43 see in society right now because of the massive unemployment. And what Jim Rickert said that he would recommend someone to do, and just want to add that into the max, is that if you are in the world with high inflation, you would want to buy real assets like real estate, commodities, hot currencies, such as, you know, and commodities, hot currencies, such as gold. However, if you want to work with deflation, you would rather consider investing in utility stocks, say fixed income, and currencies might actually also be interesting because just being in cash will improve your purchasing power. And he said, if you really didn't know what to do, you can diversify into both categories, but always maintain a position in cash. So whenever you know

Starting point is 00:59:25 which direction you're going, inflation or deflation, that's whenever you want to size up your bets. So I just want to add that into the discussion. Stig brought up a good point about Ray's comment and the context of his comment. So when he said cash is trash, he's also out there beating the drum on owning gold. And if you look at how cash has performed relative to gold since that interview, gold has drastically outperformed. And it's also outperformed the S&P 500 or any other stock index you want to bring up. Maybe not the NASDAQ.

Starting point is 00:59:58 I don't know if it's outperform the NASDAQ, but it's close. So that was where Ray is coming from with the comment. Something else that I just want to briefly talk about is how currencies fail. What does that look like when a currency fails? And for people who have never experienced this, myself included, I've never experienced a currency failure in any kind of market. I know that they've happened since I've been alive in other countries, but I've never gone through it.

Starting point is 01:00:27 I don't know exactly what that's going to feel like or look like, but I've read enough books to hopefully understand the nuances of that. And I've been beating this drum on social media for people to study this thing called the contillin effect. We can have a link to that idea in the show notes, but read up on how the contillin effect works. And it goes back to what I was describing earlier where freshly printed money nests itself into securities into financial assets because of how that money is being in

Starting point is 01:00:57 inserted into the system through quantitative easing today. All of those things are important for a person to know and understand. But when a currency ultimately fails to the person who's experiencing it, it feels like it happens all at once. There's all these events leading up to it that just don't feel right, that don't seem right, like for instance, unemployment being 15%, but yet the stock market's trying to make new all-time highs. Those two being together does not make any sense whatsoever. Those are kind of the cues that there's cracks in the dam. And that's how I would probably describe a currency failure is you have a dam that's built for a certain water level. And the water level is getting higher and higher and higher so that it's exceeding the capacity of the dam to hold it.

Starting point is 01:01:45 And you're starting to see these cracks in the dam. But then when the dam breaks, it happens all at once. And it happens abruptly. And that's where I think people that are looking at, at the government bonds right now. Then they're saying, well, you know, there's not a lot of volatility in the yield. They're pretty calm. They're at 50 basis points and they're not jumping all over the place. But if people could see why that's happening, it's because there's massive selling and then there's massive government buying on the other side of that, providing more and more

Starting point is 01:02:16 liquidity into the system. So the way I would describe that is you're getting bigger cracks in the dam. The dam is just covered with cracks all over it. And yet you have people still living in the town down below dancing all around thinking that things are perfectly fine when in fact you're about to have a catastrophic meltdown of that system. I personally believe that's what Ray Dalio is saying with his quote, cash is trash. He's suggesting that we are upon a time where there is going to be a new currency, a new

Starting point is 01:02:49 system that is built. And you don't know if it's going to happen tomorrow. You don't know if it's going to happen a year from now, two years from now, because it's so hard to know when the strength of that dam is going to break. But based on how the government is responding to this, they're not taking water out of that water level. They're raising the water level. They're chipping away at the dam.

Starting point is 01:03:10 They're actually making it more unstable through their interactions and the manipulation that they're doing. And so I think it's just making that situation all the more inevitable. And so I know this was a super, super long response to. a really simple statement, but there's a lot behind that. A lot behind that. Okay, so Morris loved the question. We're going to give you a free annual subscription to TIP finance. This is the tool that Stig and I develop helps people find undervalued picks in the market. It also helps people manage some of that risk of buying undervalued companies with our momentum tool.

Starting point is 01:03:49 that's really super simple to use. It either has a green status, it has a red status to indicate long-term momentum trends. And we're really excited to give that to you for free. So thank you for asking such a great question. And for anybody else out there, go ahead and check out our TIP finance tool. Just go straight onto our website and click on finance in the navigation bar and you can check it out there. Also, if you want to ask a question and get it played on the show, go to AsktheInvesters.com. And if you get your question played on the show, you get a free subscription to TIP finance. All right, guys, that was all the present on I had for this week's episode of the Ambassadors podcast. We see each other again next week.

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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP297: Warren Buffett & the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting Part 1 (Business Podcast)

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