We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP338: Current Market Conditions - 27 February 2021 w/ Stig and Trey

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. On today's show, Trey and I talk about the current market conditions. We discuss why we haven't seen the market top despite the challenges the world is facing due to the pandemic. We also talk about why billionaire Stan Drunken Miller says that this is the market that is most difficult ever to write a playbook for and why we expect emerging markets and commodities to perform well and much, much more. You don't want to miss out on this one. Let's jump to it. You are listening to The Investors Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.

Starting point is 00:00:51 Welcome to The Investors Podcast. I'm your host, Dick Broderson. I'm always excited about doing these episodes, but now more than ever because I'm sitting here alongside my co-host, Trey Lockerbie. Trey, how are you today? I'm doing great, Stig. I'm really happy to be here. There is so much going on in the markets today, and I think we should dig in as much as we can because there's a lot to cover. And so the way that Trey and I have talked about this episode is we're going to have three segments. The first one is just like an overall look at the current market conditions.

Starting point is 00:01:22 We're going to talk in all kinds of directions on that one. So just talking about what we're seeing in the market right now, what's interesting to us and how we position ourselves. And then in the second part, we'll be talking about our web application that we have on the investors podcast.com. It's called TAP Finance. We're going to talk about some of the tools that we have and what that signals to us in the market and how we should position ourselves. And then at the very end, we have a question shown from the audience. And it's about having the right portfolio for the right market conditions. But let's just kick this episode off. One of the things that, you know, I can't help but think about is, are we in a new normal

Starting point is 00:02:00 for the stock market. And I guess every time I hear the term like new normal, it's just painful to say. You know, every time you say it, you just know something's go wrong shortly after. And we've seen the stock market just explode in 2020. Despite the pandemic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has generated a 9.7 total return including dividends. And that is trailing the 18.4% return for the S&P 500, again far behind NASDAQ doing 45%. And so Trey and I, we're sitting here mid-February and the S&P 500 is up 4%. The NASDAQ is up almost 8%. And, you know, I just can't help but think, like, how long can this go on? And so if we look at the most obvious explanation of why all this is happening, we have to talk about the low interest rates and the expansion of the money supply. And what's interesting is that billionaire redale has said that giving the current interest rate level, he wouldn't be surprised if we in the foreseeable future would see stock markets trading around 50 times earnings. And he wouldn't find anything weird about that if you only compare stocks

Starting point is 00:03:10 and bonds. And just as a reference, right now the S&P 500 is trading at almost 40 times earnings and the CLEPE is 35%. The CLEPE taking into account inflation and normalized earnings. So during those mild conditions, you generally don't want to hold cash in your portfolio. simply because it's being debased at a relatively high rate at the moment. And what I also want to say is because of these low interest rate, I know we always get talk about those interest rates, but it's simply because they just change the entire dynamic for all asset classes. Whenever we have a low interest rate, we can also use a low interest rate for the future

Starting point is 00:03:51 cash flows, clearly not zero for math reasons, and a very low discount rate just leads to very high asset prices. And so if you consider a stock pick like Spotify, for instance, you consider a stockpick like Spotify, for instance. As stock we talked about before here on the show, they don't make a lot of money today, but it's expected to do so in the future years from now. So those cash flows are now worth relatively more than the cash flows in the short term because we're just using a low interest rate. Again, they're not worth more than cash flows today, but relative terms if we had a higher interest rate, that would be different. So this is just a very different environment that we're

Starting point is 00:04:25 coming from compared to the recent decades. But enough about how I'm seeing the current my conditions. I want to throw it over to you, Trey, and sort of like, what are you seeing right now? So I'm going to quote Stan Drunken Miller here because I think he summed it up the best. He basically said that this is the craziest cocktail he's ever seen in his career and probably the most difficult time to develop a playbook of how to navigate this. My thesis kind of summed up is related to the old joke about don't fight the Fed. I think that is still very true today. And I think we're going to phase into a new era of not fighting the fiscal instead. So I want to talk about that a little bit. But first, I'd like to kind of

Starting point is 00:05:05 take a step back and take a 40,000 foot view of what's going on, in my opinion. So the first place I like to start is typically with the total market cap to GDP ratio. This is otherwise known as the Buffett indicator. The ratio is currently at 194.8%. So almost 195%, meaning that the market cap of the entire stock market in the U.S. is 195% higher than our current country's GDP. This is the highest it has ever been after even peaking in 2000 at 142%. So you might be hearing that and thinking, wow, the market is incredibly overvalued. But going back to Stig's point that he just highlighted, the cyclically adjusted PE ratio, the Cape ratio, also known as the Schiller PE ratio, still has not matched this peak from the dot-com crash where it was around 45.

Starting point is 00:06:00 And like you said, Stig, it's only sitting around 35. So in other words, there's potential for it to increase at least 30% from where it is now. So that's happening. And then meanwhile, our government has increased its debt by 170% in the last 12 years and the money supply has expanded fourfold over the same period. So there's just an unprecedented environment to invest in right now. I want to highlight just a couple of other points that have happened since COVID began last year. And a good place to start is with the U.S. dollar, which has dropped around 10 percent, its lowest level since 2018.

Starting point is 00:06:40 In addition to that, U.S. corporate debt is up now $10.5 trillion. And usually corporate debt goes down during recession as companies kind of reliquify. But actually, it's increased during the COVID crash, even while corporate profits, are down 18%. So what I kind of want to do here, Stig, is walk people through a little bit my framework. And we talk a lot about this on the show, but I kind of want to just walk the dog a little bit on it because I think for the listener, they might be struggling to piece all this together and say, what does this all mean? And you hear a lot about the Fed and what they're going to do moving forward. So if we take a look at interest rates right now, the nominal tenure, for example, is at

Starting point is 00:07:24 1.09%. And the PCE is at 1.87 and the CPI is 1.4. So the inflation indicators essentially. That means that the real 10-year rate is negative. It's now negative 1.02%. And that is important because basically all of the stimulus that we've been talking about just now is expected to lead into inflation to some degree. No one knows how much or when, but people are talking a lot of about it working its way into the market, especially with this new stimulus package of $1.9 trillion that's about to hit the market. The expectation is that all the stimulus money is going to continue to trickle down into the mainstream economy and eventually start leading to inflation. We can talk about how to define inflation, right? But as far as typical goods and services go,

Starting point is 00:08:20 we do expect it to start growing. And the question is, what is going to be the Fed's responsibility? to that. The Fed could continue to print money, do quantitative easing, and buy these government bonds back off the market, which would artificially keep the interest rates low, or they can not do that and let inflation rise, which means that bond interest rates will rise. And if that happens, I think a couple of things happen. So a common opinion about this is that the Fed can't afford to let the interest rates rise. So the expectation, I think, is weighted a little bit more towards the fact that they're probably going to print more money, probably going to buy back more bonds, and keep these interest rates

Starting point is 00:09:04 artificially low, which means the real rate is going to keep or is going to continue to stay probably at a negative number, which means that commodities might perform really well moving forward in the next few years. And commodities, interestingly enough, just broke out a downward trend line going back to 2008. So they're starting to kind of revamp a little bit. So my expectation is that commodities are going to continue to perform well. I also think that I don't think we've seen the top of this market yet. And going back to one of the things you said that before Trey, you know,

Starting point is 00:09:38 you compared this to 2000 with a Doncom bubble. And it's hard to say like with just using the Shilopias and example being 35, back then was 45. Is that any indicator of where we are? I want to say that this situation is very different in the sense that the interest rate was just very different in 2000. And still it went up to 45. Like, we're seeing something very, very different right now. And I have a hard time right my head around whether or not this is a new normal. And again, time is infinite. So let's be careful about saying what a new normal is. But

Starting point is 00:10:08 Radele was right. And Trey, you just talked about before, you know, negative real returns on government bonds. And yes, we can always talk about how to define inflation. But, you know, this just call this 0%. Just be generous and say it's 0% return. Well, if you get a 0% of in bonds and that's how do you want to preserve your wealth? If you're afraid of inflation, equities is just not a way of generating cash flow. It's also a way of protecting yourself against inflation. So these are just unprecedented times. It's so interesting to see what's going to happen. And it sort of like takes me to one of the other points I wanted to talk about here with the current market conditions. The US, no surprise, it just seems very, very expensive

Starting point is 00:10:49 right now. And of course, again, this is due to the low interest rate levels. You can even then compare to Europe that, at least to me, doesn't look as expensive right now. And we have negative rates here in Europe. So right now, I'm not looking to invest that much in the US. I have some positions in the US, but not a lot, especially not compared to what they used to have. Where do see opportunities in the market? And for those of you who have been following what I've been doing in the previous current market conditions and the master my episodes, I've talked a lot about looking internationally. And right now I find valuations in emerging markets more appealing. I wouldn't say I find them very appealing, but again, you have to compare this to

Starting point is 00:11:28 the opportunity cost. And if your opportunity cost is the S&P 500 right now, well, then to me, emerging markets look more interesting. And they do that for a few different reasons. They do that because they are trading at just more attractive levels, but also because it's a way for me to diversify my portfolio. So let's talk about how they have performed in the past. If we look at the emerging markets and let's talk about how to define emerging markets. Well, most ETF providers would place emerging markets, the primary markets is China, Taiwan, India, Brazil, and South Africa, in that order. It is a bit different, like, whether you go to like Vanguard or BlackRock or whoever you go to, but like more or less there is this consensus, those are the main emerging markets.

Starting point is 00:12:11 And if you look at how they perform, from 2000, 2009, emerging markets did 9.8%, whereas the S&P 500 did is 0.1%. And that's also known as the lost decade. But then from 2010 to 2019, emerging markets yielded 3.7%, whereas the S&P 500 did 13.5%. So I just wanted to mention that to really show that this is also a diversification play. Like, yes, perhaps I would agree with you, Trey, Like you mentioned before, perhaps this stock market hasn't seen this top yet. You know, it's difficult to try and guess what the stock market is going to do in the short term. But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised either if this discontinuous for some time. But I want to take some tips off the table and start investing in other markets

Starting point is 00:12:55 because I don't know how long this would go on in the States. Going to emerging markets, if you're a bit more adventurous than I am, perhaps you want to go to the very cheapest markets. That would be something like Russia, Turkey. I'm not that adventurous. It's a little too exciting for me. So the way I'm playing it is that I focused and invested in a broad basket of emerging market countries.

Starting point is 00:13:17 So it's not a specific play on countries per se. It's more like a basket of countries. Yeah, I tend to agree with you on that stick. I just want to highlight, though, that you have to honor your circle of competence at the end of the day. And I just spoke with Joel Greenblatt about this. And it was a great reminder that he's very U.S. centric. And that's because he really understands corporate strutely.

Starting point is 00:13:39 and the laws here in the U.S., and I think it can be beneficial to allocate some of your portfolio globally. I no doubt think that that's a great strategy. Personally, though, it's not really within my circle of competence. I do think, though, just going back to what Stanley Drunken Miller was talking about, that Asia in particular seems to be, of all the markets, probably a pretty good one, mainly because if you compare their response to the virus to the U.S., it's drastically different. I mean, China, for example, hasn't even increased their M2 supply while ours has gone up in 25% or less, you know, in related to GDP.

Starting point is 00:14:17 And then additionally, China has practically defeated the virus. So they are poised for, I would think, a much stronger recovery, a much stronger currency, and I think a much stronger growth rate over at least the next couple of years. Again, not to go into a long discussion about inflation. I think we've done that multiple times here on the show, but like we do see a lot of money print. going on right now in the States. And you started out, Trey, by talking about 10% depreciation in the US dollar compared to a basket of other currencies. And it's just, you know, I don't know whenever this will continue. And again, I do want to say that whenever you do make those

Starting point is 00:14:52 currency baskets, especially compared to, if you look at the US, they primarily compare it to the euro. So you can always make the argument. It's the US dollar not performing well. Is it because the euro is just strong? But we print as much money as we possibly can here in Europe too. So it just seems to be, to some extent, like a race to the bottom. And one of the things I really like about emerging markets, despite all the bad things you can say about emerging markets and political instability and all that, is really that you don't, at least right now, don't have the same amount of money printing. And even if we would see that happening, it might be nice to have a sort of diversification in your fiat currencies. I don't, it's not like I see

Starting point is 00:15:31 dollar breaking down or anything like that or for that happening to the euro at all, but I do see a lot of debasement in the horizon. So I kind of like this as an inflation play too and a currency play. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is. From June 1st through the 3rd, 2026, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its 18th year, bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world, many of them operating on the

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Starting point is 00:19:51 All right. Back to the show. Yeah. And it's got sort of a positive or negative feedback loop however you want to talk about it or view it, mainly because, you know, as our dollar depreciates, we're essentially mercantile turning these countries like China into a mercantile country. And so they've got already a current account surplus. And that's just going to continue as we continue to drive more of the economy back to them because of the currency's weakening. If I can piggy about a bit on that, I wanted to talk about the concept of resulting. And we spoke with Andy Duke back on episode 231. We'll make sure to link to that in the show notes. And we talked about how. how whenever we make decisions, and she specifically mentioned poker, she used to be a poker player,

Starting point is 00:20:36 but she also said, this is the same with your portfolio, this is the same as whatever you're doing in your life. Think about running this experiment, whatever you want to call it, think about having this scenario a million times. And that's how you're supposed to position yourself. So if you have, this might just be a silly example, but if you can be, let's say you have the example of a smoker and a non-smoker. And then the non-smoker would be the person get lung cancer. Some people would take that and doically as say, well, it doesn't matter if you smoke or not, because even the person who's not smoking would get lung cancer and my dad, he's been smoking all his life, he doesn't have lung cancer. But then, obviously, if you ran that situation

Starting point is 00:21:14 a million times with the same probabilities, clear the person who's smoking would get lung cancer. And this is just one of the things that I'm thinking about right now in these current mild conditions. You know, I get asked a lot, and I'm sure the same for you, Trey. A lot of people from my audience are asking, so what are you doing right now? And what I would not do. be susceptible to is too much resulting. I really want to focus on what if this happened a million times. And that's whenever Redela comes in, he talks about, you know, you need to diversify different currencies, different asset classes, and different countries. And I definitely think that's the right approach right now. And just one piece of action that I've taken here recently,

Starting point is 00:21:54 I tend to be a slow learner whenever it comes to, you know, following my own guidance. But I've sold my position in Spotify. I brought up Spotify, I think it was back in episode 299. This was the Q2 mastermind meeting. And since then, I made a decent 65% return on that. Since then, you can say it's been a bad decision. It's continued running up. So I don't know if I really phrased this is a good decision or a bad decision. But my point about this saying was that I made that decision because I wanted to diversify more, but also because I was thinking about running this scenario a million times. I don't know what specifically is going to happen with Spotify. And without going too much into the specific stock pick, you know, I could talk about what I expected to happen

Starting point is 00:22:36 with the churn rate of the listeners, what I expected to happen with the gross margins. He just really hasn't materialized the way that Apple has gone into the market and Amazon made changes in the podcast market. I was just like, no, this is just not for me. And who knows who's going to prevail in the music and podcast space? Spotify might cross all of them and you can rightfully point laugh at me. But the point I wanted to make with this is not whether what's going to happen the podcast market or the music market is, let's run this a million times and what's going to happen. And I think that going out of this, and I don't know whenever, you know, this area that you referred to before, Stan Drunkie Miller called the craziest market or whatnot,

Starting point is 00:23:15 he ever experienced, I don't know whenever you can officially say, now that has ended. But I think that coming out of it, there would be a lot of people saying, oh, XYC was obvious to me, so that's why I did XYC, and you can see how I made 10x of my portfolio. I would say that in this type of scenario, think about, again, doing this a million times and say, be humble and say, I don't know what's going to happen. I might not capture the greatest of all upsides by investing in this particular security, but I just want to be humble. Then just protect my downside, like really, really protect your downside. Diversify into taking this from Medellio into different currencies, different countries and different asset classes.

Starting point is 00:23:56 That's really like my gospel right now going into these mug conditions. Well, you know, they say history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. And so I agree with you that I wouldn't necessarily just compare today's market with 2000 and the run-up with the dot-com bubble. But I do see another roadmap in which it could slightly rhyme with that. And it kind of goes into what I was talking about with the stimulus and how it's going to work its way into the economy because there's three really amazing and unique, I think, situations sort of playing out from the stimulus. So, for example, one is that household finances might be in

Starting point is 00:24:36 the best shape they've ever been in, ever, which might sound crazy to some folks, because obviously with something like the COVID crash and the recession we've been in, in history, you would think that that would be the opposite. But in fact, personal income is actually up over $500 billion, which is even up a trillion dollars from two years ago, a lot of the surge came from the stimulus payments and unemployment benefits. But private wages and salaries are back at a new high. So are average hourly earnings and weekly earnings. And on top of that, household debt payments are down 1.5%, which is the lowest it's been in 40 years. And this kind of makes sense, right? Because if you get all the stimulus money, especially the unemployment benefits,

Starting point is 00:25:19 but you've got nowhere to go and nowhere to spend it on. I mean, restaurants haven't even been open in the last six months in most places. So what do you do with that money? Well, you probably pay down your debt. So a lot of the households in the U.S. are sitting on lower debt than they've been in the last 40 years. And if you're not paying down debt, you're probably saving that money, right? So savings has increased to levels not seen since the 1970s, which makes sense as well because people are earning good pay and not able to spend it. So I think all of this said, you've got probably the largest amount of hint-up demand probably since the 1920s.

Starting point is 00:25:56 And so I could see as the vaccines start to roll out in the next six months, which are already doing now, and people are able to get back into the economy, they've got more money than ever to do so. And then you're going to start seeing a lot of these companies that haven't even been earning profits. That's whose stock prices are soaring. they're going to start earning more profits, which I just think is this positive feedback loop that's going to grow the stock market at least much higher. So, you know, at the same time with you Stig, I say all that. And this is not an uncommon narrative, right? You've heard this probably from other folks. And that in itself, the contrarian in me is squeamish a little bit because the more I hear

Starting point is 00:26:35 about something, I'm like, okay, well, probably the opposite is about to happen, right? But there's one Another dynamic I also just want to touch on because I do think this was somewhat of a groundbreaking event. And that is the rise of retail raiders, is what I'm calling them. But basically, you've heard about the Reddit communities that are banning together to short squeeze stocks like Gamestock. That may have just felt like a flash in the pan and even old news by now, but I don't think we've seen the end of that. And I mean, what we saw is basically the empowerment of the retail trader in ways that we've never seen before. And since people are sitting at home not working or even at least working remotely and potentially

Starting point is 00:27:14 having more money than ever and looking to put that money somewhere, a lot of people are picking up stock investing, stock trading, speculating for the first time ever. And if you look at charts about call options, for example, it's incredible. It's going parabolic. I mean, people are jumping into these options. I hope intelligently, but it remains to be seen. But the point is, the adoption of this is probably higher than it's ever been. And I think that's only increasing, especially as these retail raiders are empowered with more money and seeing the results from this.

Starting point is 00:27:50 I mean, basically the power of banning together and putting that into individual stocks. So I think that's just a further dynamic that is very new to this market and probably unlike anything we've seen before. All right, let's transition into the second segment of the show where the topic is TIP Finance. So TIP Finance was something that Preston and I originally created because we wanted a tool that could help us in our own stock investing decisions. And then a bunch of stuff happened. And now we're not just only looking at equities. We're looking at all kinds of asset classes because of what's happening right now. But to me, equities has always been my home.

Starting point is 00:28:31 Like, that's always where I revert to. still have around 60% of my portfolio in equities right now. And one of the things that I always find very interesting in TP finance is the filter we have that shows you the cheapest large, mid, and small cap stocks. And I always find that very valuable for me whenever I start my research. And what you see right now is that where there could potentially be value is in a lot of financial companies. Those are the companies that the filter finds to be the cheapest compared to their earnings. And you might say that you're not surprised by that. Financial companies have been unloved for a long time for a number of reasons.

Starting point is 00:29:09 You can even say that they've been unloved since 2008 due to the systematic issue that they've been in financial sector. Also, capital requirements for banks today makes it much harder for them to make the same amount of money, simply because they can't leverage as much as before. They still need to keep more of the cash on the balance sheet. And then the low interest rate is typically not beneficial for banks. And I would talk about so far, like, this is just a lower environment. Banks used to have more than 80% of interest income. Now, for instance, Bank of America, it's 50-50. So they're transitioning away

Starting point is 00:29:40 from having interest rate income to the same extent as before. Perhaps they're also feeling that we are some sort in a new normal. But also, one of the reasons why you see all these financial companies being so cheap, at least compared to the rest of the market, is that financials are really set up for major disruption, like all that things that's happening in fintech, the, days, a lot of the old big banks, it just doesn't seem as appealing to most people as they used to be. And I want to say that the way I decided to utilize the filter is to invest in one of those old banks, you know, one of those non-interesting banks, at least according to the market. I specifically I invested in Bank of America. I pitched that back in the last perma conditions

Starting point is 00:30:21 in episode 316 and outlined my investment thesis of that in that episode back then. At the time, was trading around $24. Now it's trading at 33, and I'm still sticking to my investment thesis of intrinsic value between $40 and $50, so I'm holding on. All of that being sad, in the bull market, everyone seems to be a genius. So please don't take that for more than it is. And we have seen a very nice run-up in banking, but as we talked about here before, we've really seen them run-up in more or less all kinds of asset classes these days. currently the only sector that is more unloved than financials, that's energy, which is quite interesting.

Starting point is 00:31:04 So if you're really a big believer in mean reversion, not just for the financial industry, but also in energy, you can invest in an ETF called XLE, which is a major energy ETF with more than $30 billion on the management. It is only 0.13% in expense ratio. I just want to highlight two stick that on the filters that we have on the TIP finance tool also include a momentum status. And typically if I were looking at this, especially with banking, which to be honest with you really scares me as an industry, but I guess that's sort of the point, right?

Starting point is 00:31:39 You're seeing high yield, but you're also seeing the price momentum turn green on a lot of these picks, which I think is an interesting thing to point out because, you know, typically with things this cheap and the secular trends we're seeing, I would. would kind of assume that with the banks that aren't able to adapt to the new economy might be in serious trouble and could become value traps of some degree. But the momentum, I think, is just a bit of a hedge against that if you're adding these to your portfolio. I think you're right, Trey. Momentum is definitely something to take into account. I tend not to focus too much on momentum as probably as much as I should. At heart, I'm a value investor,

Starting point is 00:32:19 and I really, I want to read the financial statements and see, like, how do I get banked for my buck? I don't always look at the stock performance of the particular stock. But I do want to say that whenever I look at the banking sector, the banks that I see most ripe for disruption are the smaller banks, simply because of what's coming in here with fintech. There will be a lot of disruption even for the bigger banks, but even so, the bigger banks are, to a lot of extent, still on the forefront of this development. And they are such a core part of the infrastructure that I would be high-disup. if they would be completely left out of the disruption that we're seeing right now, in a positive sense, that is. And I think the best example I can give you is what happened with Visa and MasterCard. Like, we all talked about the disruption that were happening with payments. And here, PayPal,

Starting point is 00:33:02 the biggest disruptor would then come in and say, well, we probably have to use the MasterCard network. So I like to be set up. And so I think that's a very important thing to include. If you look at the big three banks, I think they would benefit from it. Or even in my bare case, they won't be as disrupted at some of the regional banks. I think the regional banks are really in for some hard times. And talking a bit more about what I see in the TIP finance reprivation, I also wanted to highlight that we now have a new international filter. As you can tell, I always talk about investing international markets. So we finally did something about it, and now you can see the valuations of the different markets in there. You have the cheapest markets,

Starting point is 00:33:44 Russia, Turkey, Poland. They're priced into something along the lines of the 14. to 17% per turn. But again, you have a high local currency risk. So this is something that's in local currency, which probably not, especially for Russia or Turkey, it's not something that I would be, again, it's probably too bit exciting for me. But if you're really just hunting for value and if you see this differently, it could be something that you wanted to invest in. Like you mentioned before, one of the worries that have right now is holding too much in US dollar. This might be different for you. Like if you live in the States and you know, you shop in this stage and you give your income in in U.S. dollars, it might be different from you. I have a lot of

Starting point is 00:34:22 my cost and other currencies than U.S. dollar, but I get my income in U.S. dollars. So I just don't want to hold too many U.S. dollars right now. So investing international, again, is a way to diversify into different currencies. And another way to use that filter is to look at high growth markets. So I would say that a market like India is very interesting right now, but I don't want to drag John too much about the international markets. Like I mentioned earlier, I'm buying into a in the entire basket of emerging funds, and I'm using the filter here to figure out, like, where do I see value? Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers now expect

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Starting point is 00:38:03 investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This end up other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. So, Dick, I'm curious what you think, especially with the financial sector, about Buffett decreasing his allocation to banks in general over the last year. What do you think about that?

Starting point is 00:38:30 I think that's really interesting. I do want to say, like, as a caveat to that, that he has chosen a winner, and that is Bank of America. So he has sold his stake, for instance, in Wells Fargo. And for everyone who's been following Buffett, he's been praising Wells Fargo for I don't know how many years. And he sold his stake. I want to say he sold his stake in JP Morgan, too. Yeah, he dropped the position in Wells Farrow and J.P. Morgan. And totally out of Goldman Sachs. Yeah. So he's betting big on Bank of America, which, you know, being a fellow investor, I don't think I, like you mentioned,

Starting point is 00:39:02 Trey, don't fight the fat, but, you know, don't fight Buffett, too, I want to say. So it's So it's an interesting stock, but I don't really know what to make out of it other than Buffett just doesn't know. I think it's the same reason why he sold his airline stocks. Like, there could still be value out there. And by the way, the airline stock soared after that. But I think he just needs clarity right now. I think that's part of it. The other thing is, and I'm definitely not an expert in this, this could also be for regulatory reasons. I think he's still allowed to hold several banks, but there are some issues there. Right now, the way that Berksie Halloway has to file is that they're considered an insider.

Starting point is 00:39:39 I want to say that they hold something along the lines of 12% of Bank of America, they can own up to 24.9% of that company. They have to disclose it all the time, but they can do it. And then they will have to register as a banking whole company before they can buy more. So there might also be some regulatory reasons why he's chosen the way he have, and perhaps he needs to pick just one stock. But I'm not 100% sure of the regulations whenever it comes to that. So let's hop to the third segment where we're going to play a question from the audience. And this question comes from Sean.

Starting point is 00:40:11 Here we go. Hi, guys. My name is Sean. I'm from the UK. And firstly, I want to thank you both for the knowledge that you pass on every week. I'm a fairly new investor and it's helped me learn a lot. So thanks, guys. So I have two questions.

Starting point is 00:40:25 Firstly, as momentum has been beating value on an investing strategy for some time, how is it actually measured? Are there specific metrics that you follow? And how do you use these metrics to determine your asset allocation? Do you always have a selection of value and gravest stocks in your portfolio? Or do you start selling some grave stocks when the momentum changes and start allocating money into more value-type stocks, for instance? And my second part of the question is really about diversification. As I've noticed that when the momentum of the market breaks down,

Starting point is 00:40:57 it seems that a lot of the time everything comes down in tandem, including hedge-like-type bets in gold, etc. So is true diversification actually splitting money between assets like real estate, Bitcoin, physical gold and bonds, rather than sector pacifics like industrials, tech, oil, etc.? Thanks, guys. It would be interesting to know your answer. Cheers. So, Sean, I love this question.

Starting point is 00:41:20 And it's something I've been thinking a lot about lately. And I want to say I've had somewhat of an epiphany even in the last six months. And a lot of it has come from my discussions with people like Kathy Wood and a few. other folks. And what I'm kind of learning, at least about myself, is that my style of investing needs to be more dynamic. And I say that because I believe that the current market is more dynamic than it's ever been. And so when the facts change, my opinion changes. So had you asked me a year ago or six months ago, I probably would have told you that I'm a hardcore value investor and I rarely look at momentum. I think that's still true. But when I

Starting point is 00:42:02 And I've been describing this to people, the best analogy I can kind of come up with is that given my background used to be in music, and I kind of referenced that a lot because it's my point of reference. So if I'm talking about music and being an artist in music, I would probably listen to a wide range of music, right? Whether it's folk, blues, whatever. And if I were going to write my own music, it would probably incorporate some aspects of all of that.

Starting point is 00:42:29 Now, I could be a folk singer and just be a hardcore folk. I like, but that's not been my style. I typically, I listen to a wide range of music, and so therefore if I were to make an album, you probably hear elements of all different types of music, all sort of aggregated or combined together. And that's how I'm kind of looking at my investment style right now. So to be honest with you, given the current market conditions, I'm pretty heavily weighted in commodities and Bitcoin, and probably what you would call irresponsibly long even on Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:42:59 And then on top of that, to Stig's point, I do have some. positions in Visa. I do think the fintech space is going to be disrupted. My play has been in Visa so far in Square. I'm heavily invested there. And I think that's very different than what my portfolio would have looked like even a year ago. And it's mainly going back to something that I was talking to Kathy Wood about mean reversion, right? With value investing, mean reversion was a very almost predictable cyclical thing. But with the new economy and the disruption taking place and the innovation taking place and things like the cloud and the internet really taking off. And it's just provided a lot of gray area for me. So I'm still trying to figure it out for myself.

Starting point is 00:43:42 I would just tell you that the bottom line here is that I've learned that you can be more flexible. And maybe that's bad advice, Stig. You correct me if I'm wrong, but Stig might have a different opinion for me on this. But what I'm trying to say here, I guess, is that I think the market is more dynamic than ever. And so my philosophy is to try and be as more flexible. than I've ever been. I think it's interesting that we Trey met at the Berksie Halleways annual year-ho's meeting. And there was definitely not a lot of talk about Kathy Wood type of stocks. I don't think anyone mentioned Tesla. You would probably be shunned from that gallery if you said something like Tesla. That would be a curse word. And I don't have any position in Tesla,

Starting point is 00:44:24 for that matter. But I think you're right that the market dynamic. And I came to think of one of the most prominent value investors, Howard Marx, here recently in his memo, which is just amazing resources, his memos, but he talked about how he are naturally skeptical about new things happening because he's a value investor. And that is his strength, but it's also his weakness. But what you're also saying, Trey, is that you're doing that too. You're looking at stocks that someone like Warren Buffett typically wouldn't be investing in. Is that because your circle competence is just different? Is that just because you're seeing market in perhaps and more, it's called a modern light? Or is it simply because a guy like Ron Buffett, being a true

Starting point is 00:45:11 value investor probably feels that there's going to be a major, meaner version. This is just something that would pass. Yeah, well, to that point, I just want to highlight something for everybody. Warren Buffett is the first person to tell you that value investing is redundant, right? What we're talking about here is investing. I just think that people get a little too dogmatic in which lane they stay in and, hey, I am this kind of investor. And I actually think that that might be a mistake, especially with the dynamics at play in the current economy.

Starting point is 00:45:45 We've never seen this level of involvement from our Federal Reserve, for example, and this amount of stimulus and this type of economy and these dynamics with the once-in-a-hundred-year virus. I mean, these are different times. I know that history repeats itself or rhymes at least to some degree, but I guess what I'm trying to say is that what we're talking about is investing. And that just means that I'm putting money out now to get more money in the future. What I'm kind of trying to highlight here is that I recently tweeted about this.

Starting point is 00:46:16 And the idea was, investing is everywhere. I mean, hiring a new sales team is investing. Building a gigafactory in Berlin is investing. So to me, I try not to get wrapped up in the labeling. If I'm a value investor, I really just look at that like, hey, I'm an investor and I'm going to invest where I think the biggest return or the biggest yield is right now. Otherwise, I'm just weighing out opportunity costs and reallocating the different buckets based on that.

Starting point is 00:46:42 So, Sean, you might be sitting out there and thinking, weren't they supposed to answer my question? And so let me try and actually go back to the question. And we do apologize, Sean. We're going back and forth here. There are so many things to unpack. And so to the first part of your question about managing a momentum strategy, and again, to Tray's point about not saying, this is momentum, this is value, or this is growth.

Starting point is 00:47:04 But if we stay within the more classical definition of that, as you mentioned, Sean, momentum has outperform value dramatically over the past decade. And this is not surprising since we are in the bull market. Momentum strategy is just typically doing better whenever you are in a bull market per se, But in particular, in recent times, momentum strategy has just performed really, really well. So just a quick reminder for those of you who are not completely familiar with what I mean whenever I say momentum strategy, that is buying the best performing stocks regardless of the fundamentals.

Starting point is 00:47:34 So it's really just a question of buying something that's going up. And then whenever they're not performing well, you know, sell them off and then you invest in the newest price performing stocks. If you want to do a momentum strategy, the best way to do it is through an ETF, simply due to the tax efficiency. Don't try it and figure out, oh, Tesla now went up 12%. Let me just write that momentum. From a tax standpoint, it's just too difficult to do that. And I wanted to mention that and then I wanted to say that the most popular momentum ETF, if you are US-based and you only want to invest in US stocks, that is the stock picker M-T-U-M. I personally invest in X-D-E-M, since I live

Starting point is 00:48:13 in the European Union, which is a global momentum fund. But the principle is really the same. It's all about the price action. So going back to Trace's point about like how dynamic is the market, what are we seeing in the market right now? To me, it's too hard to know if momentum will continue to up-perform value. If you force me to choose all the next 12 months, I'll probably say momentum for the sole reason that there is momentum behind momentum right now. Because with the excessive money printing we have right now, yeah, the answer is most likely yes. But really as a segue into your second question about diversification, you know, I still own a value. ETF. Guessing what the stock market will do in the short term, to me, it's just too difficult. And

Starting point is 00:48:53 I can easily see the stock market decline. I mean, who knows what's going to happen? We might see a new mutation and vaccines doesn't work then or whatever. Like, I don't know what's going to happen. And again, if we do see a bear market, at least traditionally, we've seen that stocks traditional perform better that are characterized as value stocks. And the other thing I just want to say is that there's been a lot of bashing on traditional value investing. Picks. But keep in mind that whatever thing that's happened here with the coronavirus, this is not a normal crisis, if there's such a thing as a normal crisis. Like value stocks, you know, airlines or railroads or whatever you want to mention, value is just much more

Starting point is 00:49:35 exposed to a complete lockdown of society in a way that we just never seen before. You cannot compare this to what happened in 2000 or in 2008 at all, which is really why value has underperformed to that extent. Yes, a whole value to F, but also whole momentum ETF right now. Yeah, and I just want to highlight too, Sean, that a lot of this has to do with interest rates, right? Because if inflation does start to creep into the market and interest rates do begin to go up, then I think that at least the growth stocks that we've been used to performing or outperforming over the last decade will probably be the first to take a hit, right? Because basically, the higher the interest rate goes, that becomes the new.

Starting point is 00:50:17 discount rate that's huge. And when you're not a profitable company, it gets a lot harder to justify the really astronomical prices that we're seeing. So I would start there. I think, you know, as interest rates start to rise, and that's something I'm watching really closely, I would then shift more to a value-based portfolio. And it's mainly tied directly to the interest rates. So, Sean, what I would tell you is that momentum is not how I approach investing. It's probably the last box I check before I go into a pick. Going back to the idea of just simply laying out money now to get more in the future, I do my due diligence on a stock. I really try and develop the narrative around the free cash flow and project that out into the future. And then the last

Starting point is 00:51:00 thing I do is typically check momentum. It doesn't make or break my investment decision. If I do see that has become green recently and in a positive trend, then that's a good thing that might even further give me conviction into the pick, but it doesn't really dictate how I invest. What I would tell you, though, is that I'm really watching interest rates carefully because with the risk of inflation really creeping up in the near future, potentially, my growth kind of picks that I might be looking at now, I would be more skeptical of, mainly because as interest rates rise, that becomes a new discount rate. And companies that are not producing free cash flows are not profitable will probably be the first to take a hit, and that environment of higher interest rates, we've seen value-type

Starting point is 00:51:45 stocks outperform. So if anything, my portfolio might shift more to a, I guess you would call a value-type of portfolio. But it would be mainly derived around the opportunity costs with the interest rates. So, Trey, let's talk about discount rates. I'm very curious to hear how you're seeing this. We have guests here on the show, primarily on the Wednesday show where Preston talks about Bitcoin, who talks about the expense of the monetary baseline, typically referring to as M2, they're

Starting point is 00:52:14 saying that, you know, if that's 15%, you know, that's our discount rate. Or they might even say that's our inflation. And now you talk about what's happening with the interest rate. You're talking about it might be say it's zero and you're looking, is it going up to 1%. Like, what is your discount rate whenever you value different assets? That's a good question. What I just said might sound like I own a lot of growth stocks, which I really don't. So interestingly enough, I was just talking to Joel Greenblad about this, and he said his benchmark, no matter what the environment is, is 6%. And I found that to be really interesting. And the way he's looking at it is the hurdle rate he's trying to get over for his

Starting point is 00:52:51 investments. I have a pretty aggressive hurdle rate, if that's how we're thinking about it. My typical hurdle rate is 15 to even 20 percent sometimes, but it really has nothing to do with the M2 money supply. It's basically just looking at the hurdle rate that I want for my investment returns. When you're in a bull market, especially like this, where you can find opportunities that are yielding 50% a year, I think even 15% is somewhat conservative, honestly, which might sound crazy. But in this type of environment, I'm looking for a much higher hurdle rate than I might be if there is a higher interest rate environment moving forward. Thanks for your feedback on that, Trey, because to me it's been quite difficult to figure out what should my discount rate be.

Starting point is 00:53:32 We both follow Warren Buffett and we heard him talking about using the 10-year treasury. And so whenever the 10-year treasury is like 1%, like what do you do? Because if you do the math, it's just astronomically high valuation. And that's probably not the way to go about it. Well, I want to touch on that, right? Because Buffett has also said that if he were managing a million dollars, his hurdle rate, I mean, he said this indirectly, but it was basically 50%, right? Because he was basically saying, look, if I had a million dollars, I could produce 50% a year.

Starting point is 00:54:01 Maybe that's his hurdle rate necessarily, but that kind of tells you with smaller amounts of money, which is what I have, I'm expecting more aggressive growth. Yeah, and I'm with you, Trey. If I had to answer my own question, what is my discount rate? To me, that's just such a tricky question right now. I wish I could just look up the 10-year treasury and say, oh, this is my rate. When Buffer was asked about this during one of the annual shareholders meetings, and he said that if it was very, very low, and I think he probably said this back in two,

Starting point is 00:54:31 2007, 2008 or something. So the treasury rate was definitely much higher than it was today. He said, you know, we can't do zeros. I just have to use like a higher number regardless. And I don't know what that number is. Like you, Trey, I'm not looking at M2 and saying, well, you know, if it's spanned by 15 or 20 percent, that's what I'm going to use. To me, I'd say it doesn't make that much sense to me. That's not the type of inflation I'm seeing right now. Also, I don't believe in the narrative that tech is going to disrupt everything. And if you're not growing, with, call it 15 and 20%, you don't have a business anymore. That's not how I see things.

Starting point is 00:55:07 I understand the tech people saying that's the world, and that's how I see it. I understand the argument, but I just see it differently. If I said it's clearly higher than 0%, but it's lower than 15, I think it's probably too vague of a response. But I think it's, you would be doing yourself a disfavor if you said, oh, it's like 6.78. Like, I think that would be too tricky, and the thing is just more about understanding what is going on in the market more than anything else. Having said that, I just want to quote Charlie Mongo who said,

Starting point is 00:55:37 if you're not confused, you don't understand what's going on right now. I would have challenged you on that a little bit, stick, only because I'm just really fascinated by that. Because to me, the discount rate is the hurdle rate. So if you're going to lay out money, you're saying, look, if I'm going to lay out this money, I want this percent return. So it's interesting that yours might be fluctuating depending on the pick. So you're like, I'm looking at Bank of America. I'm interested in it because I think I can get 12%. But over here, I'm looking at Visa and maybe I get 15% there. You're not sticking to a fixed discount rate. That's interesting. Yeah, I think you bring up a good point. I think that it's all about staying within the

Starting point is 00:56:20 circular competence. If I were to invest in something I don't understand as well in, I would just need a higher margin of safety. And you know how it is with math. Like if you use a lower discount rate, you will come up with a higher valuation and vice versa. So that's really the reason why I'm doing that. But you all right. Like you could be saying across all assets, I'm going to use the same discount rate. What is most attractive to me? And I think that's also what I'm doing. And that's also one of the reasons why I'm still focusing on, let's call the traditional value picks. Like, to me, the thesis about if you were to live in a world where you have to grow your company at least 50% or 20% in fear currency terms, like you would only have big tech companies left. And you would have changing companies, you know, all the time because those tech companies who before grew with like 20, 50, 100%, they won't continue to doing so.

Starting point is 00:57:10 And we'll just have a whole world of tech companies that would change every three or four. four years or it might be over-saturating a bit, but that's not how I'm seeing things at all. I see we have current market conditions right now where, given this specific type of virus that we have, given this specific type of printing that we have right now, we see tech companies do really well. I don't know how long this printing is going to continue, and I see us change environment. I'm not saying we'll come back to this is going to be 2017 or this is going to be 2005. That's not what I'm saying.

Starting point is 00:57:45 I'm just saying that we have ideal terms for tech companies right now to perform really well. The market has realized that, which is also why Tesla is the fifth most valuable company in the S&P 500. And someone like Kathy Wood would know a lot more about Tesla than me. She still feels that there has some runway and will continue to go up. The market knows that these are ideal times for tech companies. And that's also why a company like Apple, which is, you know, you might even call consumer goods and not the tech company anymore, like depending on how you define it, it's training it 40 times earnings. To me, it's already been priced in. And I don't know,

Starting point is 00:58:21 it might be priced more than N, which is why I still go with traditional stock picks. I still have evaluative because I believe in that mean reversion. Tech stocks are doing great. But the question is, will they be doing great compared to the current valuation? And of that I'm not too sure of. Well, I think this actually ties in really nicely with the debate over being highly diversified or being highly concentrated also because the other epiphany I've had in the last year is I used to take a very diversified approach to my portfolio and I just wasn't seeing the movement I was really expecting. Again, I'm starting with a pretty small portfolio.

Starting point is 00:58:59 And in the last year, I decided to switch up my strategy and decided to start going big into my high conviction bets. And so my portfolio over the last year has become much more concentrated, as I kind of alluded to earlier. And I think that goes hand in hand with what you're talking about, Stig, because if you're like, hey, tech stocks are the only thing is yielding 20%. Well, I mean, in this environment, my portfolio might take the shape more allocated to something like that in a more concentrated way.

Starting point is 00:59:25 Wherever the yield is that I can expect, that's just how I'm approaching it now. I think my opinion would change once I get to a certain scale and I'm just looking more to not lose money and protect what I own. I probably move into a more diversified model at that point. But I do want to kind of speak to that because I think it's another ingredient here to what we're talking about. I don't necessarily know which asset class is going to do best. I want to say that what I'm quite sure of is for most retail investors, it is going to be

Starting point is 00:59:54 the asset class who's going to determine how well you perform, not necessarily the individual stock picks. And I also want to say that you should be in the antithesis of cash right now. We can make arguments why it should be in commodities. We can make arguments why it should be in stocks. I think most people are probably in agreement that we shouldn't be in long-term bonds right now. But like, you should not be in cash right now. Whether or not you think that the money printing machine right now is reflected into a higher

Starting point is 01:00:23 inflation number, I'm of the opinion that the CPI is understated and we have a lot more Inflation that what the efficient number is seeing, even if you disagree with that statement and you still use CPI as you measure, you would probably still not like to be in cash right now. I agree 100% with you, Stig. I'm fully allocated myself, so I definitely am with you there. So, Sean, we just covered a lot of ground. I hope you got something useful out of that. And since you asked such an amazing question, we're going to offer you a free annual subscription to our TIP finance tool as well as our intrinsic value course. And if you're listening along right, now and you haven't checked out those resources, you can Google TIP Finance and it'll pop right up,

Starting point is 01:01:03 or you can go to TIP intrinsic value.com for the course. All right, guys, so we really hope that you enjoyed this episode. Trey and I have sure had a lot of fun, and it's always fun to speak to Trey, and especially about the current market conditions. It's the first we've done of this type of episodes together, and we hope to make many more. If you're listening to this and you're not subscribe, please make sure to do so. make sure to subscribe to the feed on whatever podcast app you're using, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, whatever that is. And if you do, Trey and I have our episodes going out every weekend. It's typically more traditional value investing, but even also interviews, for instance, with Kathy Wood,

Starting point is 01:01:39 Trey have a great interview coming up with you in Greenblatt. So it's a lot more that's called a traditional we still billionaires content, and whereas present every Wednesday is talking about Bitcoin. But guys, that was all that Trey and I had for this week's episode, a VMS does Podcasts. We see each other again next week. Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to subscribe to millennial investing by the Investors Podcast Network and learn how to achieve financial independence. To access our show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com.

Starting point is 01:02:13 This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decision consult a professional, this show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP338: Current Market Conditions - 27 February 2021 w/ Stig and Trey

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