We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP357: The New Era of Investing w/ Ross Gerber

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. On today's episode, I sit down with Ross Gerber, who is the CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, a financial advisory firm which currently manages over $1.9 billion. Ross helped pioneer the popularity of what we now know as FinTwit, essentially using Twitter and other social media platforms for financial content and discussion. He's also a regular on Bloomberg and CNBC, as well as a contributor to Forbes. In this episode, we cover the recent statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and what to expect in the markets, his massively successful trade on Tesla, how Navidia sits in the middle of a

Starting point is 00:00:37 Venn diagram between climate change and technology investment themes, vice industries such as cannabis, gambling, and even psychedelics, his background in music and how it's helped his career in finance, and so much more. Just from this introduction, you can probably tell that I thoroughly enjoyed this discussion. You don't want to miss this one, so sit back and enjoy this wide-ranging chat with Ross Gerber. You are listening to The Investors Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. All right, welcome to The Investors Podcast.

Starting point is 00:01:26 I'm your host, Trey Lockerbie. And today I'm so excited to have with me, Ross Gerber from Gerber Kawasaki. My man, how are you doing? Good. Thanks for having me. Well, I'm thrilled to have you, honestly, because I think it's been about a year now that I have since discovered you on Twitter and been following very closely. And every time you tweet, I'm just sort of like, yes, this guy gets it.

Starting point is 00:01:50 It's always a fresh take. And so I thought it would be great to kick off this conversation with getting your fresh take on this recent Fed meeting that we just had. What was your biggest takeaway from it? I'm really happy with the way the government's changed in the last six months since the Biden election. And having Yellen back as the Treasury Secretary and Powell at the Fed is like the dream team for the stock market. And when Yellen was at the Fed, I still think she's probably one of the smartest people in finance. When you're dealing with people on that intellectual level,

Starting point is 00:02:25 They get things that I think a lot of market participants don't understand because they're not as smarter or they think they're smarter than they really are. And so I think the Fed understands and what Powell was talking about. And I think Powell's come around a lot from where he was even three years ago because he was raising rates aggressively three years ago, caused the December sell off, the Christmas massacre, I call it. And it was a 20% decline. And I was like, Powell, you're going to kill this economy.

Starting point is 00:02:53 And Yellen actually called him up. but they had a talk. And I think that was when he figured it out that there is an inflation. What am I thinking? And that's when he got Dovish and the market rallied and we had a really good time since Powell and Yellen had that little talk. So now they're working together. And I think it's the best thing ever if you're stock investor. So my fundamental belief system is very different than people on Wall Street or people in my industry because I come from a very different background. So even though I did go to Penn and I spent a lot of time at Wharton and I studied traditional finance, I came from a Grateful Dead background.

Starting point is 00:03:29 So I'm very anti-establishment by nature. I'm very anti-government by nature, anti-authority by nature. I very much don't trust what people tell me from the government. So I really look at things differently. And the way I see the world right now is we've been fighting deflation for the last five to 10 years, that actually technology is so incredibly impressive, it innovates so quickly that it can drive costs down for goods and services to such a degree that it literally destroys industries, like the oil industry, for example, which is completely manipulated to keep prices high,

Starting point is 00:04:06 even though there's this unlimited supply of oil. When you look at things like, oh, I'm worried about inflation, and then you say, well, we have a global supply market where anywhere I can go in the world, I can make something. And if it's too expensive in one country, I just go to another country. And there is no end for inexpensive labor in the global economy. So when you think about the main drivers of inflation, like, you know, the cost of wages, the cost of energy, these are really the main drivers of inflation. There's an unlimited supply. So the real challenge we've had and what the Fed really has been fighting all this time is deflation. And the tools that they're using now is simply printing as much money as possible. And literally at this point,

Starting point is 00:04:50 giving it to people to spend to hopefully create some sort of normal economy again, which obviously isn't going to happen because you're not creating it the way you should. So we've created a very, I would say, poor system of growth creation through money printing. Would you go as far as saying it's unsustainable? No, it's completely sustainable as long as rates stay low. So the question is whether or not this is a smart way to do things, not whether it's sustainable. So as long as they keep, I mean, the Fed Powell's like, I'm not going to raise rates until 20, 23. I'm like, that's so long from now.

Starting point is 00:05:33 I don't even know when that is. So in my mind, the Fed's never going to raise rates again. Because even the discussion has pushed the markets down. Commodities drop like a stone just on the discussion, just on the discussion about the discussion about the discussion about rates. So I think that's really the risk. The risk is we go right back into a really slow growth economy in the next two or three years. And we get back to what we had in 15, 16 with a slow economy, with wage and wealth inequality and a lack of real growth drivers. And so really what the Fed's doing right now, is very smart and we need to really push growth forward with the coronavirus and all the anti-growth

Starting point is 00:06:12 things that are happening. What's your opinion on the fact that everyone seems to hang on pals every word in the market? Well, for a guy whose job is to actually do nothing for the next two years, he has the easiest job in America other than he can't say anything that might even infer that rates might go higher. So his job is to say things that don't spook. people because he's actually not going to do anything for a long time. Like if the Fed stops buying so many bonds every month, that's actually a good thing. That's not a bad thing. We do not want the Fed having to spend a trillion dollars a year buying bonds to have fake interest rates. It's not good. So we have to get out of the mess that we started, but that's a good thing. And I think that's really what the

Starting point is 00:07:01 markets will adjust to is that these are good things that are happening. We don't want a world where the Fed has to buy bonds every day, print money, give it to people, and that's the only way people will spend. That's not a world that will last. Do you think that's a realistic outcome? I mean, is there any sense of the U.S. being on the same path as Japan and we will eventually nationalize all of our stock market? And do you think we can actually pull out of this path? It'll be a painful thing, you know, for a year when this goes on.

Starting point is 00:07:31 And it'll be good. But like, you can't expect the markets to go up forever. So, like, you have a 22 PE market that's basically saying rates will be low forever and earnings are going up quite rapidly right now. So then if you think, well, maybe the rates can go to 1%. Maybe the Fed can go to 1%. That's what I think is the highest they can go. That world is still a great world for stocks.

Starting point is 00:07:54 But the PE is going to go back to 18. Having an 18 PE stock market versus the 22 PE stock market is actually good. It's just like real estate right now. Real estate isn't worth what it's trading at. But I got guys in my office refinancing at 2.5%. They've refinanced five times these guys every month. These guys are refinancing my office, right? And so I'm sitting here thinking, if I can't do that every month to get more money, you know, obviously it changes the growth equation. It changes a lot of things. So PE ratios come down and the economy becomes more

Starting point is 00:08:26 normal versus the government just giving free money away. So it'll be a tough year, but, you know, it's one year. That's interesting. So you were actually a fan of Yellen coming in and saying, look, why are you raising rates? CPI is still low. Money is just moving into assets. The velocity of the money is very low. That is creating more and more wealth inequality. Does that compound that one year of pain? So the more positive we get now means more pain when you take the drugs away from the drug addict. It's just like a heroin addiction. The economy is addicted and now we're going

Starting point is 00:08:58 to pull it away. And like heroin addicts, the hard way is you just like pull it away and it's a horrible period of time for a short term. But then you get healthy. That would be the best thing, even though no politician's going to do that. So what we'll probably do is get the methadone treatment, which is what Powell's trying to do where he's like, I'll still keep giving you some. I'm just going to take away a little at a time. And this might take years to do. But we're not going to shock the economy, fix it, and make it better because we all got to get reelected. And so because we have our system the way it is, nobody has the incentive to do the hard thing because you won't get reelected. So if you remember back in the 80s and the early 80s when Volcker took

Starting point is 00:09:38 over and when there really was inflation, he raised rates to like 15% and killed the economy in 82. Just killed it, but he knew he was going to kill inflation too. And within the eight years under Reagan, it ended up becoming an amazing economy. That's kind of what needs to be done, but won't be done because we don't have those type of people. You know, Kyle Bass just came out the other day and said something to the effect of inflation being closer to 12% right now. What does your take on where inflation actually is? Well, he's talking about like money printing.

Starting point is 00:10:12 So if you look at how much money we're actually printing relative to how much we have, it's going up like 10 to 12%. So in theory, that's the inflation rate of money. And you can see that inflation in real estate. So real estate prices keep going up 10 to 12%. Stock market keeps going up 10 or 12%. Well, that's really the dollar is going down 10 to 12 percent, and asset values look 10 to 12 percent better. So inflation is relative to how you live. I have friends cutting their costs of living left and right because they live in cities like L.A.

Starting point is 00:10:43 and New York, and they're saying, why am I spending so much money living here when I can move to San Luis Obispo, which is a great town. I have a lot of friends there now. And I can buy a house for a million five, bid up to a million eight, right? And a nice place to live. My kids go to school in a public school now, and my cost of living because of Zoom has dropped tremendously. I don't even need a car if I live there. Or I buy Tesla and I don't even have to pay for gas and no maintenance. So you can cut your cost of living very easily right now. So in my mind, there's no inflation. Where's the inflation? Well, if you actually look at the numbers, it's gas prices. Well, that's all fake. Use car.

Starting point is 00:11:24 Like, I don't even know how that's relevant just because the car companies can't make enough cars because of the chip crisis. That's not really like inflation, right? So you know where there's real inflation is in labor costs. The restaurants are all complaining. They want to still pay $10 an hour. Well, unfortunately, those days are over, Mr. Restaurateur. I'm sorry, this labor now costs more. This is how we solve wealth inequality.

Starting point is 00:11:49 It's by a higher minimum wage that people earn. and we're seeing waiters here in LA getting paid $25 an hour, dishwasher $25 an hour. Some of the restaurant guys are complaining to me. I say, you've been paying $10 an hour for 20 years. It's going to cost you more. But see, that's not bad in inflation because then those people have more money and they spend it. Restaurants are going to get more expensive. Don't eat in a restaurant if you don't want to pay $25 for an entrepreneur.

Starting point is 00:12:14 So going back to that inflation of the money itself and how it relates to real estate, do you think real estate is actually a good place to be? Yes and no. I mean, yes, in the sense of it's an inflation hedge. So as long as the government keeps doing this, you make 10% a year, right? No, when they raise rates, real estate goes straight down just like the stock market. So if you know your asset is completely pumped up because of rates, you've got to be a little concern because at this point, they can only go up. So I would say there's parts of the real estate market I really like, but it's not per se buying residential real estate thinking I'm going to make a lot of money. because you're not. That same sentiment would apply to stocks as well, correct? Yeah, and it's the same issue. So if I buy a stock that trades at, let's say, 35 PE, it's going to go to a 25 PE, so

Starting point is 00:13:05 you better be ready. The way we look at it, the only thing I'm watching right now as an investor is the Fed. So when you started the question is, should we hang on every word, he says, I don't really care what he says that much. What I want to see is the actions. if they start taking actions. And I'm not talking about bond stuff. That's just going to create volatility.

Starting point is 00:13:25 When the Fed actually raises rate, maybe that's 2023, second or third rate height, I'm out. I'll call you in a year. Would you move to cash in that position? Yeah, he just moved to cash. You know, I've done this long enough. When the Fed starts really moving, it's just a matter of time. You know, there used to be this old saying. It's like after the third rate hike, you're done, you know.

Starting point is 00:13:45 And I think that's still kind of hold. So maybe he raises his rates three times and I'm out. And so you move to cash, you just wait and you just be patient. It happens once a decade. It'll happen this decade for sure. We'll have a bear market this decade and it'll be when the Fed chooses. I think that's years away. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Starting point is 00:18:05 That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right. to the show. So let's talk about Gerber Kawasaki a little bit. You have nine investment themes that you focus on and research. What research does GK rely on for placing its high conviction bets? That's an interesting question or a way to look at it. So I do things differently here. So most analysts focus so much on financials and past performance of the company, which is important. And I study fundamental analysis. I read lots of analysts reports that are so overly thorough over every metric of a company. It's unbelievable. And they literally pay people to figure out

Starting point is 00:18:47 all this stuff, much of which is valuable and much of which is overkill. The best way to learn about a company is understanding the people involved. I've always looked at this business is, I'm betting on people. I'm betting on a team. Is this group of people really innovating? Are they really executing their business? And a perfect example was Elon when we bet on on Tesla and it was down. And we were down millions at that point in 18 in 2018. And I went up and met with the team. That was what I did. I didn't like go read more research reports. I went to Tesla. I literally walked the entire factory. Like they opened it all up to me, which that was part of it. I was like, you know, I want to see everybody. I want to meet everybody. And I saw incredible things

Starting point is 00:19:35 They're just incredible things. And I was like, dude, I don't care what anybody on Wall Street says, they don't get it. And we invested more money at that point. It was my biggest score in my career. You know, I think we made $150 million on Tesla for our clients. And it was because of the people. And not Elon. Elon was part of it.

Starting point is 00:19:54 But he was also the problem, just like he is now. So, you know, there's just great people at Tesla. And although one of them left recently. I'm really sad to see Jerome Gillian leave. So any company I'm investing in, And I really want to know that people involved. Like, InVIDIA, you know, we're big investors in VINVIDIA. We're in a huge rally right now in VDIA.

Starting point is 00:20:11 I've been an investor for a long time in this company. It's the management team there led by Jensen. It's just they're so great at what they do. They're so smart and they execute their business so well. It's just like why I still own Apple, even though they haven't innovated anything, is that Tim Cook just execute so well. They have such a good business. They make such good products.

Starting point is 00:20:30 Whether you like it or not, even though it's not an innovation story, it's a consumer product story, you know, and they make just amazing consumer products and execute so well. So you have to know Tim Cook. You have to know the people. And that's where I spend a lot of time is getting to know CEOs, staff, talking to employees. We have a lot of clients who work at companies. So, you know, are you happy or sad?

Starting point is 00:20:53 You know, things like that. So that's actually innovative, but also more traditional than people might think. It's reminding me of maybe how Buffett approaches investing more than other. And I know that you have a unique background, but you've also studied the greats and studied finance. How do you compare your style to someone like Buffett? I learned a lot from Buffett, and I think it's very similar. And I would say where I'm most different with Buffett is I'm not wedded to valuations and the Graham and Dodd model of finance, which I think isn't relevant anymore. So the way I look at the world in value

Starting point is 00:21:29 isn't created by hard assets. In fact, it's the exact opposite. Hard assets. have no value at all. And the values all IP and intellect. So the value of your firm isn't your desks and in your building. It's the people in it. And that, I think, is where I differ from Buffett. But when you're looking at buy and hold, own great businesses, look for cash flow, increases, dividends. Valuations do matter to me. I just do it different. Going back to that theme of people, you mentioned very briefly Jerome Gilliam from Tesla. he's now left. And I've heard you say that he's like their superstar. He's their secret weapon of sorts. So that's a big change. Has he sort of, you know, secured Tesla. The foundation is there

Starting point is 00:22:16 for them to continue on and grow without him. Or do you think that that's a hit? No, I think they'll be fine without him. So I don't like this philosophy and it's not just Tesla. This happens at Netflix all the time to. It happens at tech companies. And there's this philosophy at tech companies that by firing or getting rid of some of the established players, it mixes it up and creates more innovation and opportunity. And there's some truth to that. But it also is very disruptive to teams and very disruptive to the flow and to morale. And I don't think tech people have as much EQ as they do IQ. And so they don't value the happiness of their team and the emotional parts of managing a business as much as the technical. And so I think what happens to Tesla,

Starting point is 00:23:04 like with Jerome is the same thing that's happened when they launched Model 3 and they burn people out. You know, it's like the expectations are so high there. It's crazy. He's got these Texas factory. He's got the China factory up. The guy works nonstop. He's a relentless cost cutter. He's burned out. And they get tired of it. And they leave. And he made 90 million. He sold his stock. He made 90 million. And it's a loss for Tesla. But I'm sure the young guy's there. I've jumped in and they're probably going to do a great job. But it doesn't make me happen. And touching on what you said about not being too strung up on valuation,

Starting point is 00:23:37 a lot of your approach reminds me of Kathy Woods approach, or maybe it's the opposite, right? Because she's had a lot of press, especially in the last year, about being very outspoken, out on social media, meeting with Tesla, being there. There's a lot of similarities, but maybe not a lot of people know or understand that you've been on the cutting edge of the social media movement for a very long time.

Starting point is 00:24:00 Oh, yeah. We taught Arc their playbook. I mean, they came to us, you know, and it was like, wow, you guys are doing all the stuff on Twitter and like they started tweeting. I love Arc and the team there super sharp. We've worked together during the Tesla days, you know, because there was only three of us that were supporting Tesla, us, Ark and Ron Barron. And so we did have communications, you know, sharing information and our beliefs.

Starting point is 00:24:23 So I'm a big fan. We're very different investors. They're intellectuals there. So they hire the smartest people they can find going back to the IP value. Their IP value is huge, right? Like the research they do is phenomenally good and I read it all. But they're not stock traders there. You know, they're not guys like me.

Starting point is 00:24:41 You know, it's like I'm a stock guy first. When I grew up, I grew up with like a stock in my hand. So like I was thinking about the stock market when I was 15. I was like getting newspapers and trading like at my mom Smith Barty broker. It was like, why is this kid hassling me? It was like $200 a trade, you know. So I think that's a skill set that they don't have it, Arc. And you could see that by the way they bought Coinbase and draftings where they just pile into a stock because they like the idea. But I'm like, dude, it just listed. It's going to go down for sure because we knew Coinbase people sell it.

Starting point is 00:25:13 We knew who was selling. And it was like, why would you buy the first day? And they piled in and they lost a bunch of money. Over time, it's more like an index, like where Coinbase, I'm sure, will be a good stock over time. But, you know, I would rather buy it today than when they bought it. But we're stock traders. So we look at the markets differently. I'm closer to a Warren Buffett than I am and Kathy Wood as far as style. Well, let's talk about your themes a little bit more. You've got nine investment themes. Maybe just give us the general overview of them. And we talked about a couple of the stocks underneath. I want to dig in on those a little bit more. But just generally speaking, what's the overview?

Starting point is 00:25:46 My experience in life is an investor. I look at it as decades. So this is my third decade now, coming on my third decade. So I've been doing this for 28 years. And when I started, it was the PC. And I looked around and I said, there's going to be a PC on every desk. And people were like, ah, you're crazy, Roz. Ah, these machines never work. And I bought Dell and Gateway and AOL. And that was like my first big score in dot com of Microsoft. You know, and then it was cell phones. And I was like, one day Apple's going to sell 200 million cell phones a year. And people were like, oh, you're crazy Ross, blah, blah, blah. And we rode the Apple train for a long time.

Starting point is 00:26:24 And then it was social media and search and how we use the internet. And now we are entering a new stage. So it's a new decade and there's new themes. And my number one theme right now, really is two themes, but is climate change. And so, you know, right now we haven't had rain for 14 months here in California. There's no water. I'm scared to death of the fire season. We have no more time to solve this problem, and yet it's incredibly profitable and economically

Starting point is 00:26:52 beneficial to solve it. Okay. The only reason we're not is because the forces that be in the oil industry and the car industry, they don't want this solution because it's money over lives. So if you're Exxon, it's money over lives. I need money today, no matter how bad. And now we've seen the boards being rebut and changed because these companies have to adapt. Like Nextera Energy figured that out.

Starting point is 00:27:17 They were Florida Power and Light. And they're like, oh, we're natural gas power company. Like, we should go into renewables. Now the largest renewable energy company in the world made us a lot of money. Great investment. You know, you got to love Nextera. And that's what energy companies need to be doing. So we're investing in climate for energy and transportation.

Starting point is 00:27:35 And I think this is going to be probably the biggest driving theme for investors besides technology over the next decade. Why? Because we have no other choice. choice. And so when you talk about energy, a lot of that is renewable energy and storage. And then when you talk about transportation, it's electric vehicles. So obviously starting with Tesla is the king of all of this, because they are energy and transportation. And they are the innovative leaders here in both of these sectors. This is super rare. You know, it's like Apple and Microsoft being in the

Starting point is 00:28:09 same company. So Tesla has unlimited potential and absolutely should be in your portfolio. no matter how crazy Elon can be. Not only are they a leader, I've heard you say that they have zero competition. Yeah, that was my thing this week. You know, when you really assess, especially on the EV side, like who's going to scale EV production of 500,000 units, the soonest, and compete with Tesla? And there's nobody that can do that. There's nobody.

Starting point is 00:28:35 So I think they've got the Ford Mach E might do 30 or 40,000 a year. I don't think they can make 100,000 of these. So everybody can make an EV. Everybody can have Magna produce an EV or ask Foxcon, but nobody's done it in scale, and I know how hard it is. See, that's the difference between me and everybody else. I know how hard it is to scale EV production because I saw how hard it was myself at the time. And it almost killed Elon. Like, I don't think these CEOs have the wherewithal of Elon to do this.

Starting point is 00:29:07 And I think it's going to be really hard to scale. With that, it's because of cell technology and batteries. That's what makes it hard. And that's where the opportunity is and where we're investing millions and millions of dollars every day, is in battery technology, commodities around the battery technology, and the processes around making batteries. Well, just while we're on that subject, again, Tesla comes to mind, right? They're now a battery manufacturer.

Starting point is 00:29:32 But I am just curious, if you had to choose between investing in Tesla or investing in the commodities, something like lithium. I know you have a position, I think, in LIT. Which one would you choose? When I went up for a battery day, I was lucky enough to ask a question. And my question was, if Tesla succeeds at everything it does, what impact will this have on climate? Will it have a measurable impact? And he basically danced around the question and said, no.

Starting point is 00:29:59 Basically, if I achieve every goal in my life, it's barely a tip in the iceberg for what needs to be done. and that the purpose of Tesla is to push the advent of sustainable transportation, not solve climate change. Every gigafactory, there's 10 of them open. They're making 20 million cars a year. It's just the tip of the iceberg of what needs to be done. Then he puts me in his cell factory. So I'm one of the few humans that's actually been at the new Tesla cell factory, and I walked that entire floor. This is like, this was really cool.

Starting point is 00:30:31 This was like kind of like going on a spaceship. You know, it's like they all wear spacesuits in there. And I didn't know much about batteries at the time. And then I started working with a company called benchmark minerals, which are some of the leaders in getting lithium and other supplies for battery companies. So I have access to the smartest people in batteries. So they started educating me. I go, I can't go up to battery day and not know what an anode and a cathode and all this stuff does. So they're educating me. This isn't my thing. You know, I'm a finance guy. I'm a music guy. But, oh, so Tesla reinvented the cell. The batteries sell. And when this works, for real, it's the biggest game-changing technology there is.

Starting point is 00:31:10 So all the other companies need battery cells. And Tesla isn't going to supply any of them to anybody else because they need everyone they make. So the demand for the three battery companies that exist today, maybe a fourth. There's a private company called Northwalt, which I wish I could invest in, which is a fourth battery company. But there's basically three battery companies. Then there's a few main lithium companies. And basically, These companies dominate the battery market. And I think that this opportunity is as good at or better than Tesla. The only reason I don't think it's better than Tesla is I think Tesla will execute better

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Starting point is 00:35:17 Back to the show. So climate change is one of the main themes. I think you mentioned there's two really major ones. So what's the other one. Yeah. And then the second is technology frontiers, they say, or what I like to say, AI and FinTech. You know, so the way Bitcoin and the way AI is changing technology, we're making strategic investments in those areas. So tech will always be a main sector. With that in mind, something like Navidia might almost straddle the two themes together. The video is the top holding in my, will be the top holding in my ETF. In your ETF.

Starting point is 00:35:50 Okay. I also have a position in Navidia. So I was curious to ask you about that because it's had a great run. At the time of this recording, it's sitting around $750 a share. By my rough analysis, it appears to be kind of trading at a fair value now. But that said, I've heard you say that the demand for their chips is essentially infinite. How are you looking at Navidia and how much further do you think it could run from here? Well, they're constrained, and you can only make so many chips a year, so that would be the downside, right?

Starting point is 00:36:19 They're actually throttling back chips so that people don't use them for crypto. So they're not even close to meeting demand because they serve every market that's booming. So it started with gaming. That's when I originally got involved with NVIDIA because I'm a gamer. And so I've owned NVIDIA for a long time well before they got into the autonomous driving game, which was really the second big driver of our investment in NVIDIA was. is their autonomous driving chips, which was what Tesla was using before they developed their own chips. So I was like, well, you know, so you had MobileI and you had Invidia, and Mobile I got bought out.

Starting point is 00:36:53 And then we were like, oh, you know, InVIDia, yeah, they make gaming chips, but like autonomous driving chips is like every car is going to use this, not just Tesla. And then Tesla made their own. And I was like, that's fine for Tesla, but everybody still needs Nvidia chips and they're great. And then crypto came around and then the demand for Nvidia chips was huge. And then when crypto died, they had that overhang. And In video was down 50%. There was great opportunity to buy Nvidia back then because we knew crypto was just either was going to come back or some other business would grow.

Starting point is 00:37:25 So then there was AI and data centers. Right. So then that grew. So they're in that business too, right? So I'm like, what area are they in that isn't phenomenal? So every business they're in is growing like crazy. the demand is well greater than supply. I know gamers in back alleys with cash trying to get a new Nvidia chip.

Starting point is 00:37:44 Seriously, I'm not kidding. Like with cash, like I'll buy a chip for you for a thousand bucks, you know? Is that a risk factor, though? You mentioned Tesla making their own chips. They're not the only one. I mean, Google has now been starting making their own chips. Facebook is all the big tech companies. This is the IP thing.

Starting point is 00:38:00 So I'm not going to tell you the IP at Google isn't good enough or this or that. But I think Google has proven that they're, They're not good at doing other things than Google. So like you got YouTube, which is the best asset Google has, why are you worried about chips? You're not going to make great chips. You know, Apple's made some great chips, but that's kind of in their hardware expertise. Google is not a hardware company. They don't make hardware well.

Starting point is 00:38:23 They just don't. So to me, chip makers are very focused, very capital intensive, very difficult business. And Nvidia in a way has monopoly. A few other industries you seem to keep a pretty close eye on would be what I would call vice type industries, right? So gambling, marijuana, and even psychedelics, which I am especially interested in and want to talk about. My initial question to kick this off would be something like, what would be your first draft pick for all three of those industries? So cannabis is one of my favorite industries. So what we've learned over the last 30 years is that pot is a harmless

Starting point is 00:38:55 drug. It does not have any severe effects on people and has lots of benefits. Most of the benefits are mild, but they're benefits. And when you look at a society that allows drinking and cigarettes and Advil and, you know, it seems just completely hypocritical. So pot laws are Jim Crow laws. There's no logic behind them other than to jail African American and minorities, immigrants. It's always been used that way. It's one of the most wrong Jim Crow laws ever. And they've used it in countries all around the world for oppression. And so if you look at all these young kids in jail for pot, I would think the vast majority of them are African-American and it's time this stops. It's just got to stop.

Starting point is 00:39:33 Okay. So we've got Juneteenth now as a holiday. That's a step. That's nice. But we got to get these kids out of prison for doing something that is ridiculous, right? And it ruins people's lives. You know, you get a Pock conviction and you're a white kid. You get it expunged in six months.

Starting point is 00:39:47 But if, you know, you're an African-American kid and don't have the means, you have to live with this on your record forever and you can't get a job. Now cannabis is legal. They just signed Connecticut again. So the fact the federal government is still dragging its feet, it's just absurd. It's just beyond absurd. So in cannabis, we like several companies that are very well run. All of them trade only in Canada because of the absurdity of the law. But I think the best three companies in cannabis are Tara Senn with Jason Wilde. We've got True Leave with Kim Rivers, who's just amazing. And then you've got Green Thumb with Ben, Ben Kovlar, who's also amazing. So those three companies,

Starting point is 00:40:26 We're heavily invested in as much as we can because we have lots of limitations where we can buy these stocks still. But once the ridiculous laws change and these stocks can list on the New York Stock Exchange, they will double in value for sure. But they're well-run businesses, profitable businesses. It's a great business. It's just a great business. So we just have a very high allocation to cannabis at this time. That being said, I think online gambling is like cannabis, where,

Starting point is 00:40:56 so many people do it and they just do it illegally through these like Bermuda, you know, apps or whatever. So I do think gambling is worse than cannabis, actually. I look at it as entertainment. You need to be responsible. I think there needs to be limits like in the apps to prevent people from blowing all their money. But we're big investors in MGM. That's our number one pick in the space. Why? Because we love Vegas. It's a reopening play. It's such a well-run business. Great management. I've been investing in Vegas since 89. when they opened the Mirage, you know, and I still own stock in the Mirage, you know. So MGM is really the leader.

Starting point is 00:41:33 Wynn used to be a great business and it's gone down the tubes since they got rid of Steve Wynn. Blackstone owns the rest of the hotels in Vegas, but they don't have an online business. So MGM is in a great spot. It's an international business. Online gambling is going state to state to state. It's easy money. You know, I do draft kings. I bet on Phil Mickelson and John Rom or whatever for the U.S. Open.

Starting point is 00:41:56 put 10 bucks in. It's fun. It makes it more interesting to watch the games. So I'm all for it. It's kind of a merger of sports, gambling and entertainment in casino. So we like that business. And I think MGM's the clear winner here. And then psychedelics, we haven't taken a position in yet because mostly it's super early. The companies are like pre-stage, non-profitable. I have mixed feelings about psychedelics because in my experience with them in my life, I saw negative outcomes too, not just positive outcomes. Although for me, it was a positive outcome. It's not for everybody. And so I think there's a place for psychotherapy. And I think for a lot of people, if they tripped, it would be really illuminating for them and maybe very helpful. But it's also not as open and shut

Starting point is 00:42:46 of a thing. Given that we talked about all these different companies in different industries, it brings up the question around portfolio construction, diversification, etc. So what is your, I guess, you know, you're launching an ETF. We could talk about that and how many positions are going to be in that ETF, how diversified it is across different industries. Maybe just what's your overall philosophy on that? So portfolio construction for clients is a little bit different than the ETF because the ETF's equity only. It's really meant to replicate the equity exposure we have for our clients so that people

Starting point is 00:43:18 in the general public can take advantage of. of our stock picking and add a core diversified growth portfolio to their funds. You know, you got a lot of guys out there who own Tesla and GameStop and some crypto. And I'm like, you know, that's great and that might work out well, but you're going to have a very volatile ride here. You know, maybe you need a core growth portfolio to add your IRA or something because you don't want to just take risk with everything you have. You know, what we're saying is we're trying to earn a very good return for clients better than the market, but without taking a ridiculous level of risk, like an ARC fund, for example. Like, for example, we're up on the year

Starting point is 00:43:53 while ARCs down. Why? Because we don't just own innovation. One of the sectors we own is in the pet care industry. I'm a big investor in the pet care industry. People have lost their minds over pets. I mean, the dog is king in most people's house. So we're investors. Actually, I've never lost money in the pet business. So that's one of our sectors. It's not as business technology, but it's one of our nine themes that pets live like humans now, we got a profit off of it. Portfolio construction for us is very much based around risk because what we think is in bull markets, everybody wants to take more risk than they're comfortable with. And then when the bearer market comes, they cry. So we're generally more conservative building portfolios

Starting point is 00:44:33 for people than what they per se want, but then they're really happy about it. The way we limit risk is through diversification into different asset classes, as well as using bonds. And and other types of assets to create stability depending on how much up and down you want. So what we're really trying to do is determine how much volatility are clients comfortable with. So like for the ETF, it's 100% stocks. And it's going to be about 40 stocks right now. I'm looking at the mandate is between 21 and 50 stocks. So it's concentrated. So you'll get the most volatility, obviously, if you just own our top 40 stocks. But maybe you're a little bit more conservative so you could buy like a bond fund, like a muni bond fund for 20% of your assets and our

Starting point is 00:45:16 ETF for 80. That construction is very much a personal thing. Some of my clients are young and they're super conservative. Some of my clients are old and they're really aggressive. So it's just every person is different and that's where meeting with a financial planner and working on an investment strategy for you is much more important than per se portfolio construction. because unless I know what you really want out of your portfolio, because we can all fantasize about the upside. But what matters is when COVID hits and we're down 35 percent, do you want to be down 35 percent or do you want to be down 20 percent? And that's really where we look at risk tolerance. I'm glad you brought a financial advisory because this seems to be an industry that is

Starting point is 00:46:01 almost the most right for disruption, or at least the industry that most people are trying to disrupt from the outside looking in. And just in the last year, you've seen this tidal wave of Main Street retail investors going on Robin Hood, taking their investments into their own hands. I mean, you said earlier that you're a little bit anti-establishment. So I get the sense that some part of you is like rooting this on, but also I imagine you see inherent risk there as well. Well, I hate Robin Hood because they're trying to get people to take risk.

Starting point is 00:46:31 But I work with public.com and I have no financial relationship with. them, but I love their app. See, that's why I started the ETF. Not everybody wants a financial advisor. Not everybody wants them. Now, I think everybody should have one and my firm will work with anybody. That's what we do. But not everybody wants that. I think it's 60% of people do it themselves, and we wanted to create a way for them to invest with us. And so platforms like public, which is like Robin Hood and you can buy and sell stocks on it, but they added like a Twitter feed for stocks and they added like a clubhouse within one app. And so, they're really trying to educate people. It's like acorns and all these companies, like really

Starting point is 00:47:10 trying to educate you, not just like get you to like burn your savings, yoloing options. You know, like this whole like yolo, I'm going to put all my money into something and fucking cash out. That's like the dumbest philosophy in the world because you're going to lose eventually. I can show you how to build wealth over time. It's not as sexy, but it works every time. I've been doing it for 30 years. And it takes time. But you'll build a solid, like, level of wealth over a decade and your life will never be the same. You'll be so much happier with financial security. I don't understand the desire for financial insecurity. I sleep well every night. If I'm not sleeping well, you know, like you shouldn't be up going, oh my God, if GameStop

Starting point is 00:47:52 goes down tomorrow, I'm going to get wiped out. It's not just yoloing your life savings. It's yolowing your life savings and margin, right? Which Robin Hood offers. So that's why I don't like Robin Hood is, A, they lie. Their trades aren't free. B, they try to encourage people to do things that's bad for them. And C, they don't care. If you lose, they're happy. They don't care.

Starting point is 00:48:12 See, for me, I care. None of my clients. Markets gone up for years and years and years. Nobody should be losing. You see what I'm saying? In a way, I have the easiest job in the world. You buy Microsoft and you go home. So what's happening now has been great for my business and I think is great for people,

Starting point is 00:48:29 which is for the first time since I was a kid and started in the business, people care about the stock market. Again, my musician friends are asking you about stocks, shocking. My high school friends want to talk about stocks, which they would avoid like cancer before. You know, I go anywhere. People are like talking about stocks, you know. And for me, it's super exciting time because, you know, I've sort of been toiling in obscurity for the last 28 years since dot com. and it's super fun to see so many people excited about investing, because that is the key to having something in this world. And you talk about wealth inequality. It's not really that it's rigged

Starting point is 00:49:06 against you. It's just you don't know how to use it to rig it for you. And that's the stock market. That's all these rich people have that you don't have is they know to invest in the stock market. And that's always been available to people, but not the information. And now with the internet, the information's there. I'm the only firm that you can work with. get financial advice. There's no other high-quality financial advisors that will meet with somebody with $5,000. My advisors are like, now they're like, we should have minimums. We're getting exhausted. I go, we will not have minimums at this firm. If you're too freaking tired, I'll hire another guy. We just hired three more guys and gals because it's just like, you know,

Starting point is 00:49:46 the demand is huge for financial advice and it's really hard to get when you're young. So there's lots of solutions now. People are now taking these opportunities and it's great because that's what's going to solve wealth inequality is that everybody needs to participate in the stock market. A couple more things I want to touch on because there's a difference here with what you're describing against other, I would say, more traditional wealth management firms. And my quick story on this is while I was really early days in the company I run now, I had interest in that space and I actually interviewed at one of the top wealth management firms. And two things happened. And one, it was very apparent that my resume, the only thing that mattered that they asked me was

Starting point is 00:50:26 how many wealthy people do you know? Right. And then the second thing was, here are the products that you're going to sell to these people. So how is GK different in that way? So it's exactly the opposite. So we say, how many people do you know? Because we can work with anybody. Now, fortunately, for us, we get tons of leaves every day.

Starting point is 00:50:45 So whether you know people or not, it doesn't matter. We just have so much demand. that's pretty rare in our business. It's taken me a while to get to that stage, you know, 11 years here. But we're there. So for our people, they have a huge advantage working at my firm because we just have this flow of clients. Like, we need help.

Starting point is 00:51:03 But really, truthfully, if you come work at our firm, we're like, who do you know? You can work with anybody. What's a great niche for you? You know, maybe you came from technology. So you're good with tech people or you're an engineer. So what we really try to do is build a marketing plan around those people. Secondly, we don't have a product. Well, now we have kind of a product with our ETF, but it's not our ETF.

Starting point is 00:51:24 I'm an advisor on an advisor shares, but we're advisors. So we get paid based off the amount of money we manage. In the old days, and still for most brokerage firms, they get paid on commission. So if you go to a UBS broker, the clients I was just seeing before this have a huge account of UBS, and it's a brokerage account, and they get charged like a $200 commission for every trade or something, and they're done with these people. and they're being sold products. That's how these firms, they develop products and then they sell them to their wealthy

Starting point is 00:51:53 clients, and that's how they make money. And it's a complete conflict of interest. So when you're a fiduciary investment advisor like myself or any of the independent investment advisors, we have an obligation to our clients. So we don't have products to sell. We don't create products to sell. Everything must be disclosed, all conflicts disclosed. We get paid based off the amount of money we manage.

Starting point is 00:52:16 So if I make my clients money and they add to their accounts, I make more money. So it's in my incentive to see my clients make money not to get commissions on products. So that's what's really happened in our industry is we've gone from a brokerage, commission, sales. Like they probably are like, how good are you on the phone? Like how good of a sales person are you? That's UBS and Merrill Lynch. And basically now they just sell loans, to be honest. They're just like, oh, I'll get you a mortgage.

Starting point is 00:52:43 You got to move your money over, though. Sorry. Can't get a mortgage. unless you move your money over. It's so freaking corrupt, right? So that's how brokers work. And then this whole investment thing started called fiduciary registered investment advisors. And it kind of started in the late 2000s. And we were originally in the old days, we only could sell on commission, you know, mutual funds and we get paid a commission. So when advisory came out, I loved it. I was like, this is a way better way. And so I started

Starting point is 00:53:11 doing that in 2003. I was one of the first people around doing it. And I was managing a big company of advisors then. So I could afford to make a lot less money because you make a lot less money charging a fee versus a commission. You just make a lot less money. But you get paid over time. So I started this. And so when the financial crisis happened and I started GK, the idea from the beginning was

Starting point is 00:53:34 we aren't going to have commissions. We're going to go away from commissions, be advisory only, fiduciary, do what's best for the clients, no products, you know, build our assets. We started with, I think it was like 30 million in assets under management, and now we're at like 1.9 billion. So it's been a good ride. And that's what clients want. They want to just pay a fee, you know, for services and not be preyed on with products.

Starting point is 00:54:01 And the ETF you're involved in. That's going live when? July 2nd. You can find the information on advisor shares.com. They are the ETF provider. I'm the portfolio manager. They asked me to do it for this fund. a actively managed multi-thematic fund. You know, I realized that there was a huge tax advantage

Starting point is 00:54:21 with ETFs. There's a huge tax advantage. So I can buy and sell stocks on the ETF, but those clients of the ETF won't have to pay capital gains taxes because it's in an ETF structure. You only pay taxes on an ETF when you buy and sell the ETF itself. Well, every year, I got to sell some of my Tesla. I got to sell some of my Apple. I buy some new ideas. I create taxes. Well, now I can do this for my clients and not have any tax consequences. So the ETF was created mostly around passive investments, and that's why it has this tax advantage. And these are the first active funds.

Starting point is 00:54:55 I think I'm one of the only active managers in the world that have figured this out that I can trade all day with these things and not create taxes for my clients. Huge advantage of ETFs. All ETFs have this, but none of them trade. None of them trade within the ETF. Maybe they rebalance once a month. month or once a quarter. Well, this is a huge plus. So, yeah, it launches July 2nd on the New York Stock Exchange. You know, the symbol is going to be GK. And you can find all the information about it and the

Starting point is 00:55:24 prospectus at advisor shares.com. So given that you and I have similar backgrounds coming from music and finding ourselves in this finance industry, I have to ask because I had talked to Tom Gaynor recently at Markell Corp. And he had this quote where he said, in order to be a great investor, you also have to be able to write a poem. And it reminds me of music a lot in that way. I'm curious, is there anything from that industry or that background of yours that you bring to the table or you find yourself finding as an advantage in some way? Well, I mean, I'm sure you know that many great investors have music background. You have, let's say, a chord structure and then you have solos over these chord structures, and it's completely improvisational. I'm an improvisational musician, unlike most

Starting point is 00:56:06 musician. So I play by ear and I can hear music and I can play it and I can kind of play with anybody. So it's really fun. And I have both educations by ear and by school. So what I think is that investing is very similar. Things constantly change. So you have the chords of the song, but you're playing the solo around these chords. And as the changes happen, you have to be able to play around these changes. And that flexibility is so key to being a good investor. Where most investors fail is in rigidity and thought, where they believe a certain thing, and they're just stuck and wedded in that thought process, and they ride that to the end. It's kind of like the Peter Schiff's stuff.

Starting point is 00:56:47 You know, he's the gold guy. He'll always be the gold guy. He will never not be the gold guy. It doesn't matter what you say to Peter. And I know Peter. I've met him. I hung out with him. I think he's a smart guy.

Starting point is 00:56:58 I like him. I have nothing against him. But I'm like, Peter, I get your schick. You know, you're the gold guy. But those days have come and gone, you know, like it's like gold is never going to be that exciting, Peter, you know, get in on Bitcoin, you know, and he just doesn't want to admit that Bitcoin is the new gold. And if he was smart, that's what he would have done. He wouldn't be so wedded to gold. And he'd realize that Bitcoin is digital gold. That's all it is. He should be the biggest Bitcoin guy. But he's so wedded in his thought process that he can't open his mind to it. And that's where the psychedelic therapy might be beneficial to Peter, you know. And that's where jazz music and being a musician, I think, gives, if you're an investor, too, gives you that sort of open-mindedness that you need, especially when you're wrong. I'm wrong.

Starting point is 00:57:47 I wish I could say I'm always right. I'm certainly not. And I try to limit my losses. That's a very important rule of investors, you know, sell your losers. Do you have losers in your portfolio right now? Just sell it. They're not going to turn it into winners, you know? And, you know, I thought, you know, Funko Toys was going to do well.

Starting point is 00:58:04 it didn't do well and we lose money, we sold. You know, they misled us. We lost. So you move on. But you've got to be flexible that your ideas might be wrong. You've got to be willing to play with the other musicians. So I don't play, I'm not a solo artist. I play with a band. And I have a band here of other people, other advisors, other analysts, all not only in the firm, outside the firm. And I play with them too. So I want to listen to what they're playing and how how that affects what I'm playing. And that's very important in the investment process is listening to everybody else around you's ideas, including the short sellers, including the people. See, a lot of people don't know that, like, I have relationships with certain short sellers, and I read

Starting point is 00:58:52 and listen to their stuff. And they know I do. And I respect their work, even if I disagree. But I read it because why would I not want to see the worst things? that people can come up with. So if I'm Draft Kings, I don't own stock and Draft Kings, I read Hindenberg. They do good stuff. They get sued if they're wrong. So far, they've been pretty right on a lot of stocks that they are against. I've had my issues with the way Draft Kings runs their business. They put out a report like this. You can't just discount it. You've got to read it. You got to read it. You might not like what it is. Well, it's online gambling. It wouldn't surprise me if part of that business is shade. It wouldn't surprise me at all. So why is everybody?

Starting point is 00:59:33 Oh, this can't be right. Buy more draft kings. That's not really listening to the song. So listen to the music. Maybe you're going to learn something you might not like. You've got to be open-minded to it. You've got to be flexible. You've got to move on.

Starting point is 00:59:47 You push a button. You sell. You move on. Reminds me of the Charlie Munger quote about knowing the counter argument better than your own argument. Oh, for sure. For sure. In fact, I appreciated these relationships with short sellers that were real short-seller.

Starting point is 01:00:01 that were real short sellers, not these goofballs on Twitter. And they wanted to know what I was thinking actually, too, which was very interesting. And that's why we were sharing information. They were very concerned about me because they were like, what does this guy know that we don't know? And I was really concerned about them. And I'm like, what do these guys know that I'm missing? And in the end, I was right. So it was good.

Starting point is 01:00:23 And I think you're referring to Tesla mostly on that one. That was the biggest battle I've had to fight in my career, way big. than I ever planned, you know. And it was also the most profitable thing I've done. So it worked out. Well, Ross, I really admire what you're doing with GK and everything else. I want to give you an opportunity to handoff to our audience where they can learn more about Gerber Kawasaki, where they can find you on Twitter, anything else you want to share. Yeah. So you can always find us at our website, Gerber Kawasaki.com or you can find our ETF at advisor shares.com. As well as you can follow me on Twitter at at Gerber Kawasaki. We also have an Instagram page and a YouTube

Starting point is 01:01:02 page. We put out a lot of content on YouTube at Gerber Kalasaki for all different types of investors. We've got a bunch of different shows, young people, we have a woman of wealth show now. We've got all kinds of stuff going on on YouTube too. So we're really focused on educating and empowering people to change their lives in the positive and build a financial future. So if you're looking to get financial advice to have more confidence in the decisions you're making with regard to your finances. We work with anybody and everybody as long as you're a good person. And so feel free to reach out. Fantastic. Well, Ross, this was a real pleasure. I can't wait to do this again sometime soon. And you're just down the street. So maybe as things opened up here,

Starting point is 01:01:41 which they just kind of did. We're open, man. I'm going to parties. Come on down. Come on down. We'll do this in person next time. We're all back. And ready to go. So get vaccinated. Thanks again for your time. Let's do it again. Yeah. Thank you. All right. That's all we had for you this week. If you're loving the show, definitely go ahead and follow us on your favorite podcast app so you get these episodes every week. And if you haven't already done so, be sure to check out the tools and courses we have on the Investorspodcast.com or just Google TIP Finance. It'll come right up. And lastly, don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Trey Lockerby. Give me your feedback. I'm really loving it. It's been

Starting point is 01:02:15 very helpful. I want to continue to make the show the best it can possibly be. And with that, we'll see you again next time. Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to to subscribe to Millennial Investing by the Investors Podcast Network and learn how to achieve financial independence. To access our show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only, before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP357: The New Era of Investing w/ Ross Gerber

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