We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP605: Untangling Global Outperformers w/ Dede Eyesan

Episode Date: February 4, 2024

On today’s episode, Kyle talks to Dede Eyesan about investing outside of your home country and what you need to research to improve your circle of competence, why China, India, and Japan have some i...nteresting businesses and which sectors might produce the next outperformers, the strength of monopoly type businesses when searching for outperformers, the characteristics of outperformers that are least difficult to try to identify, interesting insights into iGaming and IT consulting industries, and much, much more! Dede Eyesan is the Chief Investment Officer of Jenga Investment Partners (IP). Jenga IP is a fund specializing in allocating capital to public and private companies on a global scale. They own businesses in countries such as Finland, Poland, China, Mexico, the U.S., Australia, Sweden, Kazakhstan, and France. He authored Global Outperformers: A decade study of the top performing global listed companies (1,000% in 10 years) IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro. 02:54 - The primary reasons for China’s lower shareholder returns. 06:12 - Potential value chains in India that Dede finds interesting. 10:20 - Insights into Indian markets, governance issues, and regulation. 14:03 - Why consumer electronics is interesting in India, but not a good business model in most other geographies. 18:04 - The importance of good economics and competitive advantage in finding outperformers. 19:51 - Why monopolies like Airports of Thailand and Texas Pacific Land Corporation made good investments. 26:14 - Insights into two South African companies that are still high quality in Karooooo and Naspers. 34:44 - Why iGaming has low barriers to entry but high barriers to success. 34:55 - Why uncertainty can punish a business’s valuation. 44:37 - Dede’s outlook on his latest acquisition, GoFore, and why he likes IT consulting. 56:59 - GoFore's competitive advantage and growth forecast. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Jenga Investment Partners (IP) Global Outperformers. Learn more about Jenga Investment Partners here. Read Jenga IP’s detailed research here. Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at clay@theinvestorspodcast.com Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock AnchorWatch Cape Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable Abundant Mines HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. In today's episode, I'm talking with Dadei Aisan about investing outside of your home country and what you need to research to improve your circle of competence, why China, India, and Japan have some interesting businesses and which sectors might produce the next outperformers, the strengths of monopoly-type businesses when searching for outperformers, the characteristics of outperformers that are least difficult to try to identify, interesting insights into eye gaming and the IT consulting industries, and much, much more. I first spoke with Dayday back in August of 2023, and we had a wonderful conversation about his
Starting point is 00:00:33 excellent report on global outperformers. He researched global businesses that returned 10 times or more between 2012 and 2022. In that conversation, we went over a lot of interesting findings from his study, and I learned a lot of Dayday's high-level takeaways from that research that he uses for his current fund, Jenga Investment Partners. But we ran out time, as he gave incredibly detailed and well-thought-out answers. So I wanted to continue that conversation, and this time look at some of the time. some of the lessons he's learned in the past to help him find great opportunities today.
Starting point is 00:01:02 We discussed some business that he has bought and sold, businesses that he currently owns, and businesses from this study that he thinks would have been identifiable as outperformers a decade ago. If you like investing abroad, this is a must list in the episode of We Study Billionaires. Data has created his entire investing process out of finding the best opportunities in the world while placing a large focus on consumer-facing businesses. When you see what he owns, it's very apparent that not only growth is important, but quality as well. Now, without further delay, let's get into this great conversation with Dayday Aeson. You are listening to The Investors Podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:38 Since 2014, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Kyle Greve. Welcome to We Study Billionaires. I'm your host, Kyle Greve, and today we bring Deida Aeson onto the podcast. Dayday, welcome to the show. Hi, Carl. Thanks for having me again. Me and Dayday had a great conversation in the summer and I still had so many questions left for them.
Starting point is 00:02:14 So I brought him back on to continue the conversation on global outperformers as well as to discuss some of the business that Jenga IP is invested in. To start off, I wanted to ask some questions specific to some interesting geographies. China showed some very interesting differences from some of the other countries you researched in terms of shareholder returns and earnings growth dislocations. When comparing China to the U.S., Japan and India, it had a much lower shareholder return as a lot of, a percentage of businesses that were compounding earnings greater than 20%. You mentioned three potential causes for this problem. One, state-owned enterprises and mixed-owned enterprises make up 40% of China's market cap. Two, Chinese companies rank relatively poorly on reporting standards. And three, the Chinese government can quickly alter regulatory environments on a whim,
Starting point is 00:02:55 which can adversely affect profits in entire industries. So my question is, do you see the China discount closing anytime soon, or do you think that this is something that investors will need to accept when they get exposure to Chinese businesses? Thanks for the question. I think as an investor, it's just, it's safer to expect the discount to always be there. And what that leaves a stock picker from an action view is rather than projecting 20 times earnings, you project 10 times earnings and you just make sure the margin of safety is much bigger in the investments you make in China. So I mean, the three areas that we try to explore. So one of them being the fact that they're a lot more state-owned enterprises. If you look at the top 10 largest companies in China, six out of 10 of them are state-owned. And if you compared that to India, it's foreign, US is much less. So you have a lot more state-on businesses, and most of them grew much slower. They grew much slower from an earnings view. Their profit margins are not necessarily as high as the private businesses outside. So for example, I mean, they grew much slower and the quality can sometimes be less. So, I mean, that's one of the big
Starting point is 00:03:58 factors. When you look at the banks in China, you look at Pingan and the other big firms, their potential for upside is much less. And that isn't just with China. I mean, it's pretty much throughout Asia because if you look at eight countries, apart from India, majority of the largest companies tend to be the banks, utility businesses, energy businesses, and they just have a much lower growth profile. So from a compounding lens, they're much tougher. From a reporting governance view, what I would say is there's been a lot of improvements in China.
Starting point is 00:04:28 I mean, one thing we have to put into perspective is that, you know, the U.S. market has had more than 100 years of existence, whereas with China, most of the businesses only were in public in the 90s. So they really only had 20 years. And investing is something that requires all parties involved. The investors have to have, you know, the knowledge base. The shareholders have to have to be able to, you know, they also have to have the knowledge base that's required. So it needs all parties involved. And China's only been 20, 30 years in this in terms of the development of stock exchange. So there's been a lot of progress. For the future, one thing I do see is that IFRS has kind of made investing from a global lens much easier. So you think about recent changes like, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:10 IFRS 16 and how, you know, the Chinese account and standards have also incorporated that into their own reporting. It becomes much easier to compare companies in different geographies. So, I mean, that's also been one of the big factors, I guess, with China. And I think it's from an investor. It's one of reasons to be, I guess, a bit more optimistic going forward. So Asia clearly has a good runway for growth. You mentioned that Asia's share of global GDP has grown from 26% 20 years ago to 34% 10 years ago to around 40% today. In the meantime, US and European shares of GDP have fallen over the last decade from 36 to 28% and 31% to 23% respectively. So for investors who are uninterested in China due to geopolitical risks and what you just discussed,
Starting point is 00:05:52 what are some other countries that you see in Asia that are likely to produce outperformers in the coming decade? So there's a strong correlation with our performers when you look at the innovation, you look at the market size or the consumer market, there's quite a bit of a strong correlation there. So in Europe, one of the most pretty much innovative countries like Germany, Sweden produced a lot more outperformers than the ones that are less innovative. And the ones that had big markets also did quite well. The UK has a big market. It did quite well. Sweden doesn't have a big market, but then they have a very strong competence in exporting to big markets. So they did really well. So when I take that perspective in Europe and I applied in Asia, again focus on the big
Starting point is 00:06:30 markets or beyond China, the other big, two big markets, you know, you have India, you have Japan, you have South Korea. Now, one thing that not many people, I didn't realize until I did this study, is that there are a lot more companies listed in Asia than NOL. So while US companies are much larger, you know, you have trillion dollar businesses in the US, in Asia, there are much, there are a lot more companies. So Taiwan has a population of 26 million. And if you compare that with the UK, it's 67 million. But then again, Taiwan has over 2,000 businesses listed. And it's way more than that.
Starting point is 00:07:06 I think it's twice as much, almost twice as much companies are listed in Taiwan than listed in the US. If you compare South Korea and Germany, I mean, there are two really innovative countries. But then South Korea has four times as many listed businesses in Germany. And Germany's GDP is more than double that of South Korea. So you can see that there's just so many businesses listed in South Korea. So while these countries would produce a lot of outperformers, Remember, we have to look at the sample size. The sample size is just so big.
Starting point is 00:07:34 So I think it's going to be very hard to go through all the companies in South Korea, for example, or trying to find, you know, the outperformance. I mean, one of the areas that we looked at was the turnover to our performance. So the number of listed businesses that become our performance, I think those are an area that a lot of Asian companies didn't do really well in. Now, the followed point is where I think they're going to be a high turnover to our performance. And I think India, although the market is quite expensive now, I think India will be somewhere out focus on.
Starting point is 00:08:03 One, there's less, the private sector has a plays a much stronger role in terms of business activity there. Two, there's a track record of outperformance there. There's lots of growth potential. They're benefiting from current geopolitics. So you think about the amount of capital that's shifted from China to other parts. India's been one of the beneficiaries there. You have a lot of public, strong businesses that are looking to set up, you know, operations
Starting point is 00:08:28 in India and look into the Indian market. So you think about Apple now trying to have some of its manufacturing operations in India, that's going to benefit some local players. You think about the impact Amazon's having and it's driving innovation in retail segment in India. I think that's going to have a bit more impact there. And there's going to be a summer performance there. So I'll spend quite a bit of time on India. The drawback with India is that as a foreigner, you can't really invest in India.
Starting point is 00:08:52 So you have to be an Indian national or if you're a phone manager, you have to get, you know, the license to be able to invest in India. So that's the drawback. with investing there. And Japan, just to conclude, Japan is also quite good. But with Japan, I think it's much better to focus on areas where the Japanese economy has some competitiveness in. So one of the big facts with Japan is that it's an aging population. And if you look at the outperformers, there you'll see quite a bit of businesses that are more skewed towards demand of an aging population. So you think about technology using healthcare to make processes much simpler. You think
Starting point is 00:09:23 about care homes. You think about services for care homes. Those are the things that were outperforming in Japan. So I'll focus on those areas where I think the Japanese economy has some form of global competitive in essence. So India is a country that I find very interesting for some of the reasons that you just outlined. And as your study shows, there are many outperformers that are coming out of India and given the continued growth of the country in terms of GDP, I think there's a good chance it'll probably be at the top of your study if you did it again in 2032. However, India does have certain drawbacks. And I wanted to discuss them in a little more detail. Let's first start with the governance issues in India. What do foreign investors need to think about if
Starting point is 00:09:57 they're able to actually invest there about governance in order to improve their competence in investing in India. I think one of the byproducts of having so much success so quickly is that it attracts so many potentially bad players. So when I think about this relative to India stock market, I mean, if you look through 1992 when the stock market was really formed and organized well today, there's just been so many success stories. Success stories mean cases of companies growing from one rupee per share to 10 rupee per share.
Starting point is 00:10:27 then 100 rupees per share. Now, what that happens is that you're going to attract people who want to take advantage of the system. So they list bad companies or they just want to benefit from that super fast growth in stock exchange. And as a result, you've had certain frauds. You've had so many frauds in the industry in the stock market. From my personal experience in terms of looking at companies, there was a recent one with a company called Brightcom group. And they're still listed, but there was just so much inconsistency going on fake bank accounts and being created by managers and, you know, the accounting was just not real. I mean, so many issues. And this is a, this is not just India. This is emerging markets and companies that are
Starting point is 00:11:06 trying to grow really quickly. This is what happens. The one thing I would say is in India and emerging markets, you have to place a lot more focus on quality. And what I mean by quality, not just, you know, quality from a business lens, also quality from in terms of when you assess management, the assess management, it assess the employees and you assess, you know, it's customers and the real relationship the business has with his customers, you have to assess all those factors. And I mean, if you're invested in the US and quality growth valuation, if quality was just 50% of your, I guess, your investment process, in India, no, the emerging markets, I'll make quality maybe 75%. So you really need to place a lot more focus on that quality factor. And you really
Starting point is 00:11:48 to think about the business case. And if you have a business that produces coal and has software margins and is growing 50% each year. You really want to question where, how that adds up. And it's really just asking those really basic questions. And I guess spending a bit more time on ground, trying to familiarize yourself with other shareholders and also with management and just really asking those questions and the standard of the culture. I think that's the way to overcome the governance issues in India.
Starting point is 00:12:17 And do you think that regulators in India are trying to solve some of these governance issues through improved regulation? Like, what are you seeing there? I don't have a strong expertise on the regulatory view, a regulatory aspect in India. But I mean, one thing I would say is that there's definitely been a lot more progress in terms of, as a shareholder, in terms of the information companies need to put into their prospector. So I was looking at a few Indian comments earlier this year and I was actually quite amazed by how much information they had shared about the business, their stores, the economics, in their perspectives. And I'm guessing there was a bit of encouragement from a regulatory view there as well. And also, when you have the mutual fund industry in India growing,
Starting point is 00:12:57 mutual funds in general have quite a bit of sophistication in terms of the question they're going to ask management. I think that also plays a regulatory view where your potential shareholders are of higher quality and are going to ask you much more tougher question. I think that's also going to play a big role when you think about the level of reporting in India. But I mean, I'm guessing there's definitely been quite a bit of effort in this place. And also when you look at the penalties for false accounting or for, you know, reporting late or not reporting at all, I think India is definitely doing some work there.
Starting point is 00:13:30 So what are some of the specific value chains in India that you've been spending time researching? And why do you think they offer upside in the future? So before zooming into the value chain, I think it's really important to put where India is in perspective. So India is a country that has GDP per capita about 2,500. 500 is really, really low. And if you look at, you know, S&P and Muris and all the estimates out there, there's a lot of estimates on India being able to grow about 6, 7% this year and for many years for the future. I mean, there's a big chance that India will be the third largest economy by the end of this
Starting point is 00:14:06 decade. So you really need to put that into perspective. And when you think about that, I kind of imagine myself if I was in India, what would really be benefiting from that growth? And one of those big areas, I think, are the necessity. really. So you have a lot of households that don't have aces, don't have refrigerators, you know, the basic amenities. And I mean, you look at like, I guess mainly the rural part. So you think about areas like the Hindi, Hatland, like Bihar, states like Bihar or Jaka and Oatradesh,
Starting point is 00:14:34 those are cities where they're really going to benefit from, you know, this exponential growth with India and India's economy. And again, the value chain there for me is consume electronics. Now, zoom in more into consumer electronics. There's the manufacturer's producers and then also the retailers. I'm a bit more interested in the retailers because with the manufacturers, there's a lot more competition as an Indian player. There are few Indian manufacturers there, but I think there's a lot more competition. In the retail side, that requires a lot more on-ground expertise and it's much more harder for Amazon's already in India, but when you think about expanding into the rural bits, it's a lot harder there just because of the logistics and, you know, the standard of living there.
Starting point is 00:15:12 So I think that's a value chain that's going to benefit over the next few years. The main player, there which is unlisted is Reliance Digital, which is owned by one of the conglomerates in India, but there are fewer players there, they're more regional in focus. And another thing about consumer electronics, if outside India, I'll never invest in electronics retail because it's failed for many years. I think it's going to keep failing for many years. When India, you have a state that has 200 million people in it's just one state. In Bihar, there's 130 million people in Uttarish. I think there's about 200 million people, if I'm not mistaken, but you have so many people in one state, and 5% of them in behalf, for example, don't have an AC.
Starting point is 00:15:57 And this is a hot climate. You know, they don't have an AC. Maybe I think about 16% don't have refrigerators. I don't see why this couldn't grow up to 60%. So if that grows to 60% in 10 years time, you know, these regional players are where, you know, people in these states are going to buy ACs from. Yes, it's, you know, it's a one-of-purchase. But when you think about the share number of households, I think it's a,
Starting point is 00:16:17 it's somewhere that has a lot of room for growth. Beyond electronics retail, I'm also looking at healthcare. So one of the learnings I learned in, when I did this research, is really the hospital of the world. I mean, you think about the amount of APIs, active pharmaceutical immigrants that are made in India, it's just so big. So I think beyond just, you know, the generic drugs, you're going to move more into services. So quality hospitals, quality diagnostic centers, technology services. Not many of them are listed, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the few years you see a lot more listed companies, one of the listed companies that have been studying Krishna Diagnostics. And yeah, one of the players in this area. So I'm also studying that
Starting point is 00:16:54 value chain and really trying to understand where exactly the potential for our performance for the future there. And to conclude, their chemicals and chemical divisions or chemical businesses have done really well in India because they've benefited from the increased outsourcing of, I don't know, like cosmetic products, for example. So, Indus done quite well there. I haven't really looked into the chemicals from a value chain lens, but it's one of the projects I have for next year. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord,
Starting point is 00:17:33 and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is. From June 1st through the 3rd, 2026, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its 18th year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world, many of them operating on the front lines of history. This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures. These aren't abstract ideas. These are tools real people are using right now. You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people
Starting point is 00:18:20 you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with. Over three days, you'll experience powerful mainstage talks, hands-on workshops on freedom tech, and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the sessions end. and it's all happening in Oslo in June. If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person. Standard and patron passes are available at Osloof Freedom Forum.com, with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers. The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference.
Starting point is 00:18:56 It's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it. If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately. How do we make AI useful in the real world? Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move. With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today. NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP, trusted by over 43,000 businesses. It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system. And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.
Starting point is 00:19:32 It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI-powered decisions with confidence. And now with the NetSuite AI connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data. This isn't some add-on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business. And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get their free business guide, demystifying AI at netsuite.com slash study.
Starting point is 00:20:05 The guide is free to you at netsuite.com slash study. NetSuite.com slash study. When I started my own side business, it suddenly felt like I had to become 10 different people overnight wearing many different hats. Starting something from scratch can feel exciting, but also incredibly overwhelming and lonely. That's why having the right tools matters. For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify.
Starting point is 00:20:32 Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses. around the world and 10% of all e-commerce in the U.S. from brands just getting started to household names. It gives you everything you need in one place, from inventory to payments to analytics. So you're not juggling a bunch of different platforms. You can build a beautiful online store with hundreds of ready-to-use templates, and Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions and even enhance your product photography. Plus, if you ever get stuck, they've got award-winning 24-7 customer support. Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing, sign up for your $1 per month trial today at Shopify.com slash
Starting point is 00:21:18 WSB. Go to Shopify.com slash WSB. That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right, back to the show. So in our previous interview, you mentioned that we could open the discussion on types of outperforms that you think are easiest to identify. So seeing as myself and many listeners in the audience are always on the lookout for potential multi-baggers, I thought we'd pick up where we left off during our last chat. Which type of outperformers do you think are the easiest to identify? I think a better way to frame is the least hard. If our performers were easy, oh my God, I'll have all the outperformers I could possibly
Starting point is 00:21:54 think of, but it's a very hard game. And one of the reasons why our performance is hard is not finding it. It's actually holding onto them. So if you're going to hold on to a company for 10 years, like just think about the amount of times that stock is going to drop 25%, 30%. Are you going to have the stomach to actually go through all that volatility? Some of these companies that were outperformers, there were short reports written about them. I mean, now if a short report is written about a company on Twitter, everyone's going to say, yeah, I'm selling it. But are you going to have that stomach to really go through that volatility and do the research, understand the commune so deeply that if someone tells you, yeah, they're doing fraud, you're going to say, no, I've done the research. I don't think they're doing fraud. I think it makes so much sense. I think it's an honest management. Are you going to have that stomach and that level of research?
Starting point is 00:22:38 I think that's really the difficult part of investing in our performance. There's finding outperformers and then there's investing in our performers. And there's no reward for finding them. There's a reward for investing them. So I think when I really ask myself, you know, where exactly would I find the least difficult in terms of investing and holding onto our performers? I would say one, these are areas that are within my circle of competence. And for me, I like consumer businesses because I find it easier to understand when a cosmetic
Starting point is 00:23:08 brand is failing, compared to like a chemical business, I don't know, in India is struggling. I have no idea if a chemical company is struggling. But as a cosmetic business, I can speak to the consumers. They tell me, you know, I prefer this brand of another brand. I think the shoe brand is doing much better. So I like consumer businesses. and I find them easier to track their product relative to the competitors. The other types of outperformers are areas where I think it's either a deeply oligopolistic market
Starting point is 00:23:37 or there might even be natural monopolies. So a very good example of an outperformer from the book that we did a case study on. I think I would have, if I knew about them 10 years ago, I should have invested in was airports of Thailand. So Thailand, they have about 44 airports all owned by, I think almost all owned by airports of Thailand's enlisted company went public, I think, just after the financial crisis, and it was an outperformer between 2012 and 2020. And if you think about the Thailand economy, it's done really well in medical tourism, number one. Number two, it's done really well in tourism. It's also done
Starting point is 00:24:11 really well in tourism overall. It's grown really quickly. And also, as an airport, as a business model, is just a fantastic business model. When you think about the aeronautical revenue, like the airlines have to pay the airport, you know, money every year for every trip they do. do. And then also, there's the growing non-eronautical revenue. So you think about the retail stores in the airport. It's something they really expanded on. They benefit from duty-free revenues. That's a business that I think has little to no competition. He has no competition from the aeronautical side, but then he has very little competition
Starting point is 00:24:42 on the non-aeronautical side. So I think that's something all of, I wish I knew about in 2012 as a business model. Another example in the US was a community called Texas Pacific Land Corporation. I mean, if you speak to the shareholders, they'll tell you they've had the worst management of all time. But it's been an outperformer. The reason why it's been an outperformer, is that they own literally 880,000 acres of land in Texas. And all the big old companies pay
Starting point is 00:25:07 them revenue each year. And that's growing year and year and year because Texas has become a lot more important market in the oil when you think about what has happened with fracking and shale oil. So that's a business that has no competitor on the land it owns. It's really a target for the energy sector in Texas. And it's done really well. It's had bad management, but still done quite well. And, you know, when Warren Buffett says, I want to own businesses that even a bad management, you know, can bring this down. And then that's a really good example. I think that's a business that it has a 90%, roughly 90% EBIT margin because it's zero on CAPEX. So that's a type of business that I think I would love to have owned as an outperformer.
Starting point is 00:25:47 But yeah, just to conclude, yes, it's really having the stomach and having the level of research to hold a company during those volatile times or during the pandemic or during short reports, those sort of things. things. I think that's a real difficult bit with our performance. And you're being a really good point there with finding monopolies. So when you looked back in time, say at that 2012 period, did a lot of these businesses that you just talked about, were they already monopolies? Or did they have to kind of establish themselves as time went on to becoming monopolies? So the two airports of Thailand, Texas, they've always been monopolies. I mean, well, Texas isn't really, Texas specific isn't really a monopoly because you could do a business in other areas of Texas, but where they're on the line is just so integral for oil and gas operations that you have to pay them, you know, some form of rent.
Starting point is 00:26:34 And they also make money from using the water on the land. So that was something that they were able to also grow as an additional source of revenue over time. And then they can also sell some of the land and make money of that as well. So that was a monopoly in its own form, I'll say. But not, I mean, again, not many of the, of the outperformers were monopolies. Some of them had technical buyers to entry and they were able to build on that, you know, that competitive advantage over time, but they're quite difficult to really size up, especially when you look back in 2012. I mean, a very good example in the US, Nvidia, that was an outperformer, but in 2012, they were unprofitable, and there wasn't really clear signs that, you know, I mean, now you would say,
Starting point is 00:27:11 yes, there are clear science. It's an amazing AI company, you know, I of course I knew was going to take over the world, but then they were unprofitable. There was actually a proper risk of bankruptcy, and it wasn't really clear that they were going to have, then there was mainly gaming. I mean, And this was before they expanded into auto and data centers. They were merely gaming and chips. So it wasn't really clear that, you know, they were really going to get that more tailwinds over time. That is too tough for me.
Starting point is 00:27:36 I wouldn't try and, you know, look for those type of businesses. I like things a lot more easier. Now that I've learned more about your investing philosophy and read your study multiple times, I have a much better understanding of the types of businesses that you are looking for. Additionally, I've had a chance to look at many of the names in your portfolio. So for those in the audience who haven't gone down the rabbit hole as much as I have, Can you let them know what the primary attributes are that you are looking for in potential investments?
Starting point is 00:27:59 So when I think about businesses, I break them down into quality growth value. And really, you're looking for businesses. Same thing, working for businesses with good economics. This is their growing, profitable return on capital. You're looking for second thing, you're looking for businesses with a competitive advantage. So it might be high-piracy entry, the management might just have a very deep level of execution, high switching costs. Third, you're looking for things with unoriented management teams. So not necessarily founding-led businesses where the management are really aligned with shareholders
Starting point is 00:28:29 and they have a deep level of unorientation. And then lastly, you're looking for businesses that have a marginal safety in terms of a valuation viewpoint. So I don't think that's rocket science. I think we're all looking for that. But it's really having, one, it's having the level of energy to go through so many businesses and go really deeply in terms of the research to understand these things. That's really what I'm trying to spend my time doing as a number. investor.
Starting point is 00:28:52 There are two names that I find interesting that are no longer in your portfolio, process and Karu. Can you tell me a little bit about what your original thesis was on these names and what your reasoning was for exiting these positions? So when we had Karu, then it was called Carat. The core product is called Carat. The Karu name is very strange because he has five O's, but I think it has, it's a place in South Africa that the founder had some affinity towards it.
Starting point is 00:29:17 That's why he called it Karoo with five O's. But when we invested in those companies, we were, one in a South African-only strategy. So for the listeners, I grew up in Nigeria and I wanted to invest in Africa. I wanted to invest in somewhere in Africa because I thought, you know, this would be something out that would be fun. But when I thought about the currency risk, there were really only two countries that I felt had a bit of a stable currency, which was Egypt and South Africa. And Egypt being an Arabic-speaking country, I felt culturally it was just been too difficult for me. So we focused on just South Africa. So when I decided to focus on South Africa, I did an A to C on the 180 plus listed
Starting point is 00:29:52 companies and Kauru and Naspers. So we actually invested in Naspers, which is the parent company of Prusus, who shares in 10 cents. It's complicated, but they initially stood out. So Kauru car track then, it's a fleet telematics business. So basically they build a hardware that you put in your car or your trucks. And there's also the subscription. element or software element of it where you're able to track your vehicles, your cars over time. There are lots of players in that field. So there's also MIX telematics and there's some foreign businesses as well. But what car tracked it was that they looked across the whole value chain.
Starting point is 00:30:32 So when you think about a vehicle, if it's stolen, you can track the car, but then it doesn't stop it from being stolen. And when it's stolen, what then happened? So what a car track did was that they added another division, which was the recovery division. So basically, when your truck is stolen, car track. had a team of people that would actually go into the field to actually try and recover it. And that division was very successful. So he had a 97% recovery rate.
Starting point is 00:30:54 So when one of the customers' vehicle was actually stolen, it's if CarTrak sent someone, there was 9 in 10 chance, almost 100% chance that was going to be recovered at some point. And again, you have to zoom out again with South Africa. South Africa, if you look at the top 10 cities with the highest crime rates, South Africa has three cities in there. So the crime rates in South Africa is quite high relative. to Africa and also relative to the world. So it kind of made sense why the business that was trying to address something with crime rates was based in South Africa. The other thing I like about
Starting point is 00:31:25 Catrack was that they were expanding outside South Africa. So I think they're the largest players in West Africa as well. And a bit of the founding team were based in Singapore. So from a technology lens, they were quite globally minded in terms of they were trying to expand beyond just South Africa. So if the South African currency depreciated, the revenue that were making that were in foreign currency would also do quite well. overall was a good business. I mean, he earned an EB margin of 31, 32% each year. It had little to no debt on its balance sheet. It was growing about 15% each year. And when we bought our shares there, it was trading at about 17, 18 times p ratio. So you had a 15% grower, 30% EB margin,
Starting point is 00:32:05 30% return on capital. That was priced at 15 times. And I thought that was good value. And what happened was that the management got really fed up of the low valuations of South Africa. So they said they were going to delist in South Africa and then listing the US as Kuro, which they have done. But when that happened, the share price was skyrocketed because everyone realized it was going to have a much higher valuation in the US. So it tripled in like a few weeks. And for me, I felt the value was a bit too high. So he went up from 15 times to about 33 times. So we sold us stock. I think then was about 60 rounds per share. And we had bought it for about 23 rounds per share. So we saw that and the violation stayed a bit elevated.
Starting point is 00:32:46 So we never really bought back in. But I think it's a good business. And it's one of the very few success stories of software coming from an African country doing well globally. I mean, they're not the market leader globally, but they've done quite well expanding into all the areas beyond just South Africa. And the other company was NASPAs. So NASPAs, I mean, NASPAs is the largest African company out there.
Starting point is 00:33:09 But then it's not the largest because of its operations in Africa. It's the largest because of its investment in Tencent. So why I'm a global investor today was actually because of Naspers, because when I was looking at Naspers and I was saying they're making investments in iPhones in Brazil, in Milru, in Russia, in Tencent in China. This was a team that was based in South Africa. But then they had a mindset of, we're going to look at technology in other emerging markets. There are like South Africa because one, Silicon Valley has their own mindset of how technology should look like
Starting point is 00:33:41 because they're based in the US, but then in the emerging market, because of the geography, because of the consumer population, because of the GDP, it's going to be look a lot more different. So they literally went across all the BRICS countries and invested in e-commerce and technology-based businesses there. So the really successful one was 10 cent. And, I mean, they owned about a third of 10 cent. And I started learning about gaming sector and, you know, B-Chatt as well. And then 2019, If you looked at Tencent, it was literally a flawless business. And we bought a stake in Naspers. And we held that up until we closed the fund.
Starting point is 00:34:18 So focus on the global strategy in 2021. So that was the thesis for NASPERS. So Evolution A-B is a high-quality business that is doing very well, growing top and bottom lines. But being in a subset of the eye gaming market scares a lot of potential investors away due to seemingly low barriers to entry. I'd be interested in knowing your thoughts on evolution's moat and how sustainable that you think it is.
Starting point is 00:34:40 So we've held Evolution since 2019 and it's been, I mean, I've had the opportunity to learn a bit more about, you know, the eye gaming industry. But one thing I'll say I differ from most shareholders is that five years ago, Evolution was a company in the eye gaming industry. Now today, given the size it's at, it's no longer just eye gaming. It's really uncertainty entertainment. That's what I call it. It's about the business that entertainment. its customers with the fact of uncertainty. Now, as a customer, I've never used anything evolution.
Starting point is 00:35:15 I only found it about eye gaming when I looked at the stock. When you think about as a customer, as a consumer, where exactly can I be entertained by risk reward or uncertainty? There's a stock exchange, there's a stock market, Robin Hood. And that's what people did in 2020, where they were literally just gambling on, you know, the stock market. There's crypto as well. So same thing happened there.
Starting point is 00:35:36 There's sports betting. You think about draft kings. and, you know, I think ESPN is now expanding in there as well. And then also there's land-based casinos. So when you think about Evolution gaming from uncertainty entertainment, you realize the market is actually really big. So does Evolution have a moat in Eye Gaming? Yes, it does.
Starting point is 00:35:56 Does it have a moat in uncertainty entertainment? No, it doesn't. It's still far away from a moat. So there's still a long way for Evolution to come. I mean, it's a 20, I don't know, roughly $20 billion business in the U.S. It still has a long way to go to really build a moat in its business. And it's doing well. I mean, as a business with, I don't know, 60 plus percent, AB margins, still growing 20 percent,
Starting point is 00:36:18 although that growth rate has dropped from 50 percent four, five years ago. It's still doing quite well. It still has strong, solid market chain, I gaming. The acquisition of net end when you try to expand it to RNG has not done as well. But I still think there's room for improvements there. And of course, the evaluations have dropped quite drastically over time. they've announced a buyback so it will be interesting to see, you know, how they keep executing further. And the one thing I'll tell about evolution, I mean, among all the portfolio companies we own,
Starting point is 00:36:46 when I look at execution from management, I'll probably rate evolution probably the highest among them. And if you go back to the prospectors and you look at the things within the prospectors of what they were trying to achieve and what they've achieved today, it's just amazing. They've consistently created new games, fine-tue new games, built studios all over the world in India, in so many different areas. They've expanded really well into the US as well, which not many people thought they were going to do. Then initially, when they went public, they were just in EU. They've done really well there.
Starting point is 00:37:16 So it's been phenomenal just saying the level of execution the team have done at Evolution. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up. And customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why Vantza is a game changer. VANTA automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI-powered platform.
Starting point is 00:37:44 So whether you're prepping for a SOC or running an enterprise GRC program, VANTA keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving. Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, VANTA gives you continuous automation across more than 35 security and privacy frameworks. Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vantta. That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth. If I were running a startup or scaling a team today, this is exactly the type of platform I'd want in place.
Starting point is 00:38:16 Get started at vanta.com slash billionaires. That's vanta.com slash billionaires. Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven't dared try? The futures market is more active now than ever before, and plus 500 futures is the perfect place to start. Plus 500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, 4X, crypto, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade from anywhere, right from your phone. Deposit with a minimum of $100 and experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for. See a trading
Starting point is 00:39:01 opportunity, you'll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open. Not sure if you're ready, not a problem. Plus 500 gives you an unlimited risk-free demo account with charts and analytic tools for you to practice on. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500, it's trading with a plus. Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high-yield savings accounts. Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors,
Starting point is 00:39:45 private credit. Now, the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes thanks to the Fundrise income fund, which has more than $600 million invested in a 7.97% distribution rate, With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years. Visit fundrise.com slash WSB to invest in the Fundrise income fund in just minutes. The fund's total return in 2025 was 8%, and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, current distribution rate as of 1231, 2025. carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges,
Starting point is 00:40:33 and expenses. This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com slash income. This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. So I've heard many reasons why the market seems to dislike AB, which you kind of brought up here. So there's obviously been some issues with capital allocation that people don't like and then the decreasing growth rates, which you mentioned, but I'd love to get a sense of why you think the market has been so stubborn with keeping the business's valuation solo considering the quite obvious quality of the business. So I think evolution has a good quality, but I don't think he has a strong mode. And because it doesn't have a strong mood, I don't think the valuation should be
Starting point is 00:41:14 trading at, I don't know, 30 times or 40 times. I think 28 times, 27 times. For me, I think that's something that's a bit more optimistic. Well, I think that's something that makes sense for evolution came in. Now, the problem. is that three years ago, it was at 60 times endings. And if you're expecting it to get back to 60 times endings or 50 times ends, I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think it should happen. And if it does happen again, I'll probably be a seller of the stocks. I think will be overvalued there. So I don't think it's trading from a multiples lens too far. I mean, I think now is about 20 times, 21 times for the earnings. I don't think it's too far from where it should be
Starting point is 00:41:47 in trading. So you have a little multiple revaluation from 21 to 27 and then hopefully we're able to get 20% earnings growth over the next three to four years. I think to me, that's a good risk reward. I think it's of good value. If the multiples drop to 13 or 14 times, then I think the market's really being stubborn and really undervaluing where evolution should be trading. And I mean, management, I think they're starting to be quite aware of, you know, the valuation gap and, you know, they've announced a share by-backer about $400 million worth of shares. There's still the dividends there. But whenever. a company goes from high growth to just growth, the investors who want high growth leave the
Starting point is 00:42:30 business, and then it takes time for those who want stable growth to learn about the business. And I think that's where evolution is right now, where it's been growing 50% for the last, I don't know, 10, 20, 10 years. And then now it's in a place where it's no longer going to be growing 50 or 40, or even 30%, it's more probably going to be growing 25, 20 to 25%. So those investors are interested in high, ultra-fast growth companies, no longer, want evolution. And then people like me who want stable, predictable, and I guess undervalue companies would start getting a bit more interested. So I think that's happening with Evolution gaming,
Starting point is 00:43:05 or Evolution A-B. And the last thing is the fact that evolution has quite a bit of revenue from unregulated markets. So China and Co. And it's while now it's still revenue, you don't know how long that's going to last as revenue. And it's still a lot of uncertainty on what happens in those divisions for the future. I can say with a high degree, a 90s. 95% degree of confidence that the revenue they're making from unregulated markets are going to be there in five years time. So it's another area that I guess investors have to be aware of as a shareholder. So I also think that's why the stock is at slightly lower multiples. So I noted a new addition to the Jenga IP portfolio, a finished company called GoFOR.
Starting point is 00:43:45 I'd love to ask you a few questions about this business. To start off, can you give a brief overview of what they do and who are their customers? Yeah, so before we got to go for, I did a deep dive on the IT services industry, mainly because of global outperformance, because I always looked at consulting as a name, commodity, you know, wacky kind of business. But then when I did the study on global outperformers and I saw how many IT consulting, we're not just doing well, but then they were actually profitable businesses. They were growing each year and actually benefiting from things like cloud computing and, you know, the big shifts happening in the world in technology. It made me realize that they were actually
Starting point is 00:44:22 there might be some ID consulting businesses that will be able to grow quite well in a predictable, recurring way. So I did that deep dive and I looked globally for businesses that might be able to achieve that going forward. And one of the ones I concluded on was GoFo. So GoFo, then IT consultant based in Finland. And they started in 2004, originally by four co-founders, who I believe still own about 30% of the business. So they initially wanted to build software, but then their software business, I don't think you actually ever took off, but then they don't realize if you can't build a software business, this was after the financial, sorry, after the tech bubble in 2001. So they realized if you can't build a successful software
Starting point is 00:45:04 business would help other businesses, you know, with your software. So they cover a range of ID consulting, so things like quality assurance, things like installation, management, you know, restructuring of software of web design, web, you know, arrangements, all sorts of things in IT consulting. They do quite a bit of broad range. And they're originally focused on the public sector. So Finland is one of the most innovative countries in the world. And I think on some indexes is actually the most innovative country in the world. So from my thinking was that this is a country that if there's a new technology, the public sector are more likely to want to, you know, be enabled by that technology. And if they don't have the people to do it, they're going to look at
Starting point is 00:45:46 IT consultants like GoFOR to do it. And that's pretty much what they've been doing. And that's pretty much what they've been doing for some time. So initially started off with the public sector focus, but then after they got listed, they started expanding more into private space and having private clients like Koneh who do private clients and customers. And the business model is really by per hour basis. So they charge, you know, their customers on a time-based lens. And then with the public sector, it's sometimes the contracts. So they'll bid for a tender. And if their offering is attractive for their customers. So it might be, for example, Ministry of Transport in Finland. If they find their offering more attractive than the other competitors, they'll pick GoFo, which they did earlier this year.
Starting point is 00:46:29 And those contracts tend to be more long term and more recurring in nature. So that's GoFOR's model. And I'm happy to talk more about the financials and why it's, or we thought it was attractive. So with GoFour, I mean, when I looked at them, they had compounded between 2012. I think that's when the financial start, 2012 and 2020. They had compounded both revenue and profits by above 30% each year. And two thirds of that was organic growth. And a third of that was inorganic growth. So they started making acquisitions 2017 and 2020. And this was mainly to expand their expertise beyond Finland, so into Germany and then also build expertise in private clients. So that's where they were mainly acquiring. And it's quite common for IT consultants to acquire smaller IT consulting businesses.
Starting point is 00:47:17 It's part of the strategy. That's what the big guys do, like Accenture and Tata Consulting. So Gulfel had a good track record of growth. And I was trying to figure out why exactly do they have such a good growth track record and how long could that last for? So while I was learning about the business, I learned quite a bit about, you know, the culture at the team at the management level and also at the employee level. So one of the things I like about Goopheur is that there's just so much insight into the business.
Starting point is 00:47:43 So one, they report their revenues monthly. So literally every month, you can see. see the revenue data. So before the Q3 result comes out, you know what's happening already. You can have an idea about that. Then there's a GoFo blog where employees from GoFo write about, you know, things they're experiencing in the business. So one of the cool things I learned about GoFo was that this was before Gen AI. So in 2017, they created their own internal chatbot to eliminate the need of middle management within GoFo. So GoFo have a very lean mid-office. very, very, and I think it's like maybe 10, 20 people.
Starting point is 00:48:20 And this is a business that has about 1,400 people. And that says a lot about the culture because they wanted to eliminate as, they wanted to flip as much time as possible that they could just focus doing, you know, productive things rather than billion. So it's common for IT consultants to spend so much time, according how many hours they spend enough projects so they can, you know, bump up the revenue they're going to collect from the customers. But they wanted to eliminate as much time as that.
Starting point is 00:48:43 That was one of the things I liked about them. And then also I looked, you could also see the cost. customer feedback reviews that public sectors had. And you would also notice that I think about 82% of its customers come back each year. So there's quite a high level of, you know, requiring us and stickiness from a customer base. And they win awards both in terms awards from a culture lens. If you look at the NPS score, it's much higher than their local competitors. And also awards from the quality of the work they've done for, you know, the Finnish government is also done quite well.
Starting point is 00:49:16 And lastly, management set an internal target of growing revenues and profits 25% each year, 15% to 25% each year. So 15% organic revenue and then another 10% from inorganic revenue. This year, they've grown 27% organically alone. So they've outperformed that 25% each year since they set that target in 2018. So they've done quite well. And I mean, when I look at the culture, I look at the customer feedback, I think there's an encouraging sign that things could still last quite a bit. The founders are still involved in the business, but they've skilled back a bit. So the Kirk, who was the CEO, he's now the chairman of the board. And then the current CEO,
Starting point is 00:49:56 he joined the business in 2010 and then became a CEO in 2019. Some of the other co-founders, they still own about 30% entirely of the business, but they're still in the business in general. And lastly, on the valuation lens, it trades at about 17 times earnings. And this is a business, I think, that can grow 25% each year. It has an Ibn margin of about 12. 12%, return on capital of 14%, that's at 17 times earnings. That's quite low relative to the international peers. So one of the other businesses in that space that I like, let's listen to the US, is Globeand.
Starting point is 00:50:29 Global Bank have a similar profitability, revenue, profit growth rate, but then it's twice as expensive on the valuation lens that 33 times forward ending. So if I can either buy one, and Tata Consulting is also quite good. Tata is even more profitable than Go for, but then it's slightly more expensive and is growing much slower than GoFo. So when you put that into perspective, I thought when we made the investment that GoFo would be a better pick than the alternatives there.
Starting point is 00:50:57 So I noticed in your study that you talked about IT consulting and like you said, I find it very boring as well and didn't seem like it would be a big value creator, but clearly it is. So obviously you've done a lot of research on IT companies, what are their competitive advantages over their competitors? Like how are they able to maintain these high margins and grow at such high rates?
Starting point is 00:51:17 I've learned to tie what is exciting to where I see the opportunity. So now I find IIT consulting quite exciting because I think the opportunities there are kind of, they're okay, they went quite high from a valuation lens when the pandemic happened. And quite a few of them have come down from evaluation lens. But I think it's still going to be attractive going forward. Now, with Iity consulting, I think one thing we have to realize as investors is that technology is changing. and the impact technology has is actually getting bigger. So while, I mean, some people would argue that the pace of technology has slowed down,
Starting point is 00:51:52 but the impact new technology has on business has increased. So just think about how many businesses have tried to get Gen AI on board within the space of, I don't know, six, seven months. It's much faster than how people bought TVs, I don't know, when TV was, you know, created. So the impact at which people want to add new technology to the technology to their business, to their livelihood, is so much quicker. Now, what that means is that if you don't have the brightest people in your company, it's going to be very hard to keep up with technology.
Starting point is 00:52:24 Like if you're a healthcare business where majority of your employees are healthcare practitioners, it's going to be very hard to know which cloud computing provider should use. Like it's a Zor. How do I, you know, do quality testing and all these things? So because there's just so many options out there. So I can use any cloud provider, you know, the level of test-night to do it is so much more quicker, so much higher. That's where consulting comes into play because rather than trying to build your own IT team, which can be very expensive, it's something you can partner up with a company like GoFo or Tata Consulting.
Starting point is 00:52:58 And you have a company that's solely dedicated to learning about technology and using their expertise as people to, you know, bring it into your business. and they are willing to be with you for many years. So even if an employee leaves in Tata, there will be someone else that comes in tomorrow that will be able to continue from where they stop. I think that value proposition makes a lot of sense for businesses that are not really exposed towards, you know, recruiting technology savvy people.
Starting point is 00:53:25 So you think about, you know, construction and, you know, just think about industries where it might be more public sector facing or there's less innovation in general. I think IT consulting does a really good job there. So from a competitive advantage, lens. So there are lots of areas to look at it from a competitive advantage. So one of the biggest ones is the people. So how quickly can you attract people? And that, the Indian companies, they have global domination there. So when you look at Tata consulting, I mean, the universities
Starting point is 00:53:52 in India, they're just incredible in terms of the number of talents they bring. And the companies there, Tata, InfoSys, WIPRO, they have an advantage of being able to recruit those people into their business much quicker than anyone else. The Polish businesses also, the Eastern Europe business is also of building some expertise there in terms of value for money in terms of being able to recruit, but that's one area in terms of competitive advantage. Another big area is really, I guess, the relationship with the client, the ratings, the feedback, the ease of working with them. That's much harder to gauge, but it's something that you can gain by speaking to their customers.
Starting point is 00:54:27 So quite a few businesses would outsource their whole division to an IT consulting businesses, and it's public knowledge that they've outsourced that to IT consulting, and just reach out to one or two people and ask them, you know, how's that relationship going? How do you think Tate is responding, you know, working with them? How do you think GoFo is implementing those projects? So I think those are the two big areas that IT consulting. The other thing is that it's a, just to conclude, it's a low barrier to entry industry, but it's quite high barrier to success in the sense that being able to attract hundreds and thousands of people to work for your business,
Starting point is 00:55:01 it's actually very hard as a founder. You don't really see many IT consulting businesses created by, just one founder is usually like a team of four or five people who left another ID consort and set up theirs. That's what happened with GoFour. You know, that's what happened with all of these businesses. So it's actually quite a high buy of success industry. And I think it's one that we're probably going to see a bit more our performance going forward. But at the same time, there are a lot of losers out there. So it's a, I'll say it's a stock pickers market where you really have to differentiate between the really good consulting businesses who actually produce
Starting point is 00:55:31 value for money for their clients and the ones that just, you know, rely on their brand name and They've just focused on their brand name to grow the business. Those ones will be cut out. And there's been quite a few bad examples of those type of businesses. So one of the standout points for this business that you already pointed out was that they have about 4% of the public market in Finland and then 1% or so of the private market. This means they have a ton of market share obviously left to go. And that excludes international expansion, which you said they're already also working on.
Starting point is 00:56:02 What's your forecast for their growth into the future? Yeah. So my focus, I think they're going to be able to achieve the 25% for the next three to four years. So that's in both revenue and EBIT and profit. There isn't really room for margin expansion with consulting because your cost are mainly people. You can't reduce, you shouldn't reduce the salary of people. So you can't really expand by reducing salary. You don't have that much fixed cost. So the margins in IT consulting tend to be quite stable. And I, GoF have a policy. I think, one of the first communists to create a collective agreement within IT consulting in Finland. And they try to increase the salaries about 4% each year. I think they increased about 4.5% last year. So they tried to keep that consistent. And you need to have a good culture to attract retented people. So there isn't going to be margin of expansion.
Starting point is 00:56:50 But in terms of growth from a qualitative aspect, one thing now says that GoFal have, they've made about 186 million euros for the last 12 months, probably about 200 million by the end of this year. And the Finnish IT consulting market is 5 billion. And you have a lot of foreign players. And one of the big things, especially with the amount of de-globalization that we're seeing now, is that public sectors don't work more with local players. So that's one trend.
Starting point is 00:57:15 And then also the big four consulting firms, I think about EY, Deloitte, PWC, they have a lot of problems between audit and consulting. So a lot of clients are scaling back, using them for their consulting work and focusing on them for their audit work. So that's created an opportunity for commerce like GoFOR, which are independent. they focus only in consulting and they're also domestic where they can expand into, you know, the Finland public sector space. So that's one big tailwind they have. Also, some of the competitive struggle in the past few years. So there's Vincent, there's some other local players in Finland. They've struggled a bit in terms of growth. From a cultural perspective,
Starting point is 00:57:52 they've lost some employees. That's something go for us done quite well. So they have that tailwind as well. And then finally, in terms of growth, I don't think they'll ever have maybe 10% or 20% of the Finland growth market. So when they get to, I guess, 500 million euros, which I think they might get that maybe in five, six years, I think we're going to see growth really slow down. Then you need another lay of growth. And that's what they've done with their expansion into Germany and the rest of the dark region, Dutch regions, German-speaking countries and Austrian co. So then right now, 12% of their revenue come from that German-speaking countries. And it's something that I think they're doing a really good job. And it's growing, it's doubling.
Starting point is 00:58:33 every two years in size and they've acquired some really great businesses locally in Germany. So one is Emondo. I think they acquired that last year and that's done really well. They've made some previously acquisitions there. And they're one of the few Finnish businesses that have actually done a good job expanding into Germany from a services lens. So I think that's another room. Also, the German market is 10 times bigger than Finland.
Starting point is 00:58:55 So it's about a $50 billion market, IT consulting market. So there's a much, much larger time there. So if they can keep up what they're doing from recruiting, culture, winning new clients, both in private and public space, I think they'll be able to continue growing for the next three to four years. I think the German region is going to be about 20% of total revenues by the end of next year. So that will be interesting to see over the near term. Dayday, thank you so much for joining me today.
Starting point is 00:59:22 Before we close out the episode, where can the audience connect with you and learn more about Jenga IP and your research? Yeah, so our website is Jenga, J-E-N-E-S. N-G-G-A-I-P-com. We share our research there. We try to keep our research open. I love the feedback that I get from readers. So, yeah, always feel free to reach out to me if you read one of our research and you
Starting point is 00:59:43 have some questions. And I'm also on Twitter. My handle is D-A-D-E-D-E-D-E-D-E-S-A-S-N. So I'm on Twitter and also LinkedIn as well. And I'm always happy to talk about our research and what we're doing from a stock picking view. Okay, folks, that's it for today's episode. I hope you enjoyed the show, and I'll see you back here very soon.
Starting point is 01:00:04 Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to subscribe to We Study Billionaires by the Investors Podcast Network. Every Wednesday, we teach you about Bitcoin, and every Saturday we study billionaires and the financial markets. To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to The Investorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only, Before making any decision consult a professional, this show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network.
Starting point is 01:00:34 Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.