We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP611: The Bear Case for China w/ Kyle Bass

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. On today's episode, I'm joined by Kyle Bass to discuss what is happening in China. Kyle is the founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management and the founder and CEO of Conservation Equity Management. Kyle foresaw the U.S. housing bubble in 2008 as he was effectively short the market, which led to him being profiled in Michael Lewis's book, The Big Short. After seeing Chinese stocks drop by over 20% over the past year, I invited Kyle back onto the show because he has been

Starting point is 00:00:30 sounding the alarm bells for years on a market correction to come in Chinese markets. During this chat, Kyle and I cover why China is potentially preparing to invade Taiwan, how China has been restricting data and information flow to foreigners, major military, mainland, and legal actions the CCP has taken in the past few years, why foreign direct investment to China has collapsed by well over 80%, what Kyle is seeing in the Chinese real estate market, whether he sees the crisis in China affecting other markets globally, why he believes the Federal Reserve is totally out of touch with reality, how Kyle is positioned

Starting point is 00:01:05 today as an investor and much more. Many people have been bullish on Chinese stocks due to their valuations that appear to be cheap, but Kyle brings a different viewpoint as he believes that China's economic problems are just beginning. With that, I bring you today's chat with Kyle Bass. Celebrating 10 years and more than 150 million downloads. You are listening to the The Investors Podcast Network. Since 2014, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self-made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now, for your host, Clay Fink. Welcome to The Investors Podcast. I'm your host, Clay Fink. And today, I welcome back the founder

Starting point is 00:01:58 of Heyman Capital Management, Kyle Bass. Kyle, such a pleasure to have you back on the show. Glad to be here, Clay. Thanks. So one of the hot topics of the past few years especially has been China, and I thought there was no better person to invite on the show to chat about this than you. China's major indices over the past year are down north of 20% and down over 40% in the past five years. And additionally, many people are concerned about the potential spillover effects of the downfall of Evergrand back in 2021 and a potential collapse of their real estate market. But I wanted to start with the potential of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. You recently gave this presentation that I found to be quite fascinating,

Starting point is 00:02:41 but also pretty alarming. So how about we get started with what is the primary motivation for China to want to invade Taiwan in the first place? It's a great question. I think when you look at the world today, the prognosticators, and especially Wall Street, I like to think about everything in terms of logic, efficient market analysis, the random walk, all of the things that you and I've grown up on, kind of framing how we think about investment, how we think about rational actors, and that rational actors will always choose the most positive economic outcome. Well, Putin's invasion of Ukraine was anything but a rational economic decision. And so I think number one, the point we must make before we've even dive in here is there are leaders in this world of

Starting point is 00:03:29 totalitarian genocidal killers that are running some of the largest, most dangerous countries in the world, they are not acting under a set of rational expectations or rational thought as they move forward. And so I think that's important to just identify right on the outset here. If Putin were a rational actor and he was a rational economic actor, he would have never invaded Ukraine in 2022. So when we think about what the rationale is for Xi Jinping and his intense desire to, as he puts it, reunify Taiwan, or actually he says to create or I guess put together the rejuvenation of the great Chinese race, which is another way of saying we'd like Taiwan back.

Starting point is 00:04:16 When you understand what his motivations are and you listen to his speeches or read his speeches from, you know, I've carefully looked at him from 2017 on, he tells you in every speech that they will take Taiwan, whether it's peacefully or not so peacefully, that they will get this wayward province back in line. And, you know, that is not the way the people of Taiwan have thought about things since 1949. And in fact, the new election that they just had, essentially everyone in Taiwan is ethnic Chinese. And Xi Jinping claims sovereignty over anyone that's ethnic Chinese. And they just shun Xi Jinping and voted for William Lai, who is not. their candidate and not China's favorite candidate.

Starting point is 00:05:02 Even though William Lainley won by seven points, he still won. And China had spent billions of dollars and has so many operatives in Taiwan trying to make that a reality for China. He actually failed and was shun. So when you think about what he cares about with Taiwan, Taiwan isn't actually the prize. Taiwan secures the first island chain. And if you've read the book unrestricted warfare written by a couple of Chinese generals, You think about their long-term goal is global primacy.

Starting point is 00:05:33 They are tired of being the world's number two economy or the world's number three or wherever you think they are. Xi Jinping's goal is global primacy at any cost. And securing the first island chain is something that they've talked about for decades. And that secures the first island chain. Taiwan is but a stepping stone to Southeast Asia and Oceania and to this goal of global primacy. And so whether you think that's rational, whether you think that's a positive economic outcome, it actually doesn't matter to him. What matters to him is that he achieves this. And he said

Starting point is 00:06:07 in a speech during the 20th Party Congress just a couple of years ago, he said his life goal is the reunification of Taiwan. If he doesn't achieve that life goal, his life has been an abject failure. So when you think about hearing him in his own words, that's a pretty scary statement. And so I think it's very important to take him for his word, which obviously we didn't take Putin for his word. But let me read to you a quote from the speech he gave. He said, we must strengthen our sense of worry, adhere to bottom line thinking, which of course means party thought or Xi Jinping thought. Prepare for danger in times of peace and prepare to undergo high winds and waves. And even for the stormy seas of a major test.

Starting point is 00:06:55 He said that in the last couple of years. Well, he's telling you what's happening is he's going to move, and it could create a situation where, you know, the world has to take sides. And I think that will likely happen. One of the things that sort of struck me in preparing for this conversation is that much of the information that various institutions have used to gather on what's happening in China has actually been cut off by the CCP and it's no longer available. So why have such moves been made by the CCP? We know they like to sort of control data and

Starting point is 00:07:30 information flow. And how are you able to get accurate information on what's happening in China and really make sense of it? You know, no one has accurate data on China except the Chinese Communist Party. They do and used to, they began to adhere to Western standards. And they put together data aggregators that collected both micro-macro-level data. And so they kind of had a Bloomberg of China called the wind and there were four or five others and they were actually pretty good but if you dug into the data if you looked at like the chinese customs bureau for import and export and you looked at the customs data that was in the wind database one year until they recently cut it off it was off by two hundred billion dollars like not two billion dollars two hundred billion dollars then you

Starting point is 00:08:16 think about trade with the u.s is what 650 billion so to be off by 200 billion that just means someone's really cooking the books. So we all knew that Chinese data had low fidelity, and now there just isn't Chinese data anymore. So as in March of 2023, they severed all of those links to U.S. research universities, to the Fed, to Wall Street writ large, and that data is only allowed out of the mainland to mainland data, call it readers, and they're not allowed to share it unless the party approves it. So do you think you're getting the truth? Probably not. And you know, they were reporting youth unemployment until they actually reported that it was over 20 percent and then they said, we're not going to report that anymore. If you read some Chinese

Starting point is 00:09:02 scholars while that was going on, one of the top scholars at one of the top universities of China said, it looks like it's 46 percent. And then they silenced him. So all of the indicators point one way, Clay. And therefore, if you understand the architecture of their financial system and their banking system, you can make educated guesses on how much risk is there or how bad it's going to get. And that's where I end up. In a recent presentation you gave, you outlined a compelling argument supporting the idea that China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan. Can you please outline what moves China has made from a military standpoint to support your thesis? Again, I'm not a military. expert, but I work closely with military experts and actually the U.S. military on these items.

Starting point is 00:09:51 And so I know enough really to be dangerous, but I've also been briefed by, let's just say, the people that know what's really happening. So if you look at what China's done, in August of 22, they engaged in an operation called Joint Fire Strike. In April of 23, they engaged in operation called Operation Joint Sword. And the joints mean they're moving PLA. Army, PLA Navy, PLA Air Force. They're moving jointly together at high speed and interacting properly. Now, as you know, China's never been in a major war in the modern era. And so the fact that they really need to coordinate all their forces, they need to show

Starting point is 00:10:32 leadership that they're ready for an invasion. And so we believe that they must go through an amphibious assault as well. When you think about the 100 miles between, it's 100 miles-ish between the mainland and Taiwan, it's a really difficult straight to navigate. And just when you think about what has to be pulled off here, the tidal surges in the strait are at least 22 feet between high tide and low tide. You've got at least three miles of mud bog. So when you think about the Normandy invasion, if you remember, that had to happen at a very specific tidal moment to get the tanks and the, heavy equipment on the beach and roll it up. And we actually, you probably know this, we sent

Starting point is 00:11:14 people over even beforehand to test the sands to make sure that our equipment could roll in that sand and that it was firm enough to allow that invasion to happen. And in Taiwan, the distance traveled is about three times what it was in Normandy. The tidal surges are much, they have much greater amplitude. There's even a thermopoly problem there. There are a couple of choke points that the amphibious troops are going to have to go through that are, call it choke points and mountain ranges, that presents a problem for the Chinese. So I guess the point I'm trying to make is they've already engaged in two of the three necessary exercises.

Starting point is 00:11:49 They're building the biggest hospital they've ever built right there on the coast in Fujian, which is the province that is right across the straight from Taiwan. They're building bomb shelters all along the coast. They actually released it on some of their local government websites before the Chinese Communist Party killed the releases. We all caught it. So this isn't supposition. This isn't us guessing. We know this is happening. And they even admitted it was happening. They just didn't have a strategy that was buttoned up enough for us to not see it. But when you think about the data being severed, it's because all of the data is so bad that leadership doesn't want to talk about

Starting point is 00:12:26 how bad things are. They'd rather pretend that things aren't bad. And I'll take you to an October 2023 Reuters release where the People's Bank of China, which is is the regulator or the call it the Chinese Fed that regulates their banking system issued an edict in October 23 and it said, you know, the local government financing bonds that exist in the marketplace in China, it's a $13 trillion equivalent market, a monster market in China. It's all how the local governments fund themselves is selling real estate. They sell real estate to pay their debts. They issue debt and to gather even more funding.

Starting point is 00:13:02 And that $13 trillion market is in default. 80% of those bonds are not paying. Those local governments can't pay because there's no real estate bid because every public developer in China's is in default. So when you think about what the PBOC said in October of 23, they said to the banks. If you own the debt or you own those bonds, you can just say they're current

Starting point is 00:13:25 and it won't affect your ratings in our annual reviews of the banks. We're just going to pretend that market's paying. I mean, just think about that for a second. Clay, a $13 trillion market is in a complete state of default, and we're just not going to talk about it. And they've also been doing some other things on mainland China. You mentioned the hospitals they've been building, but talk more about the legal structure and the sort of laws they've been putting in place over the past few years. Yeah, I think if you were Xi Jinping and you knew that you were going to be subject to foreign sanctions,

Starting point is 00:14:01 And look, the sanctions we put on Russia were a nothing burger. You know, when you're a leader in the United States and you're going to sanction a foreign sovereign for their belligerence, sanctioning 10% of the oligarchs and leaving all of the banks on the Western system and able to move money around the world because you're afraid of the price of oil and gas moving up is really, again, it's not even a half measure. It was like not even a quarter measure for what we should have done. should have simply shut all travel off to Russians to the West. No Russian passports in or out. Because right now Russians travel freely.

Starting point is 00:14:41 As long as they go through Istanbul, they can fly all over the world. So like the Russians really don't care. I see a Russian woman every now and then is a sister of one of my good friends, wives. And she goes wherever she wants. And I say, how's the war going? What's going on inside Russia? She says, no, there are just a few fewer men in the coffee shops.

Starting point is 00:14:59 But like, it's all fine. No one talks about it. So again, think about that. We really haven't sanctioned anything or anyone when you really look at this. I know we're trying to get serious, but going back to what they're doing in their legal system, in January of 2020, China updated its foreign investment law, giving Beijing the power and the ability to nationalize foreign assets or investments under special circumstances, which include war.

Starting point is 00:15:25 That's their words, not mine. That began in January of 2020. That's super interesting because that's when a. COVID emanated from the city of Wuhan. So that's when they began their legal movements in the system. In June of 2021, they issued a new counter foreign sanctions law. So foreign sovereigns that were sanctioning anyone in China, they were saying if Chinese corporate interests or international corporate interests that have business in China are adhering to foreign sanctions that are punitive on China, that China can just nationalize their interests, imprison the expats that live

Starting point is 00:16:05 there, and basically turn their companies off. So basically, they were countering foreign sanctions by saying, well, we'll just shut off all of your business here in China and we'll take everything that you've got. That happened in June of 21. In April of 23, Chinese lawmakers passed a new update to their anti-espionage legislation. If you remember, that's when they were raiding U.S. due diligence firms. three or four firms, they arrested everyone, they took all of the computers, and due diligence were just doing due diligence, business due diligence, on potential acquisitions, on potential acquisitions management teams. Everything that companies like Bain or McKenzie or these others do when they get hired to do due diligence, that became illegal. And that had a chilling effect on capital

Starting point is 00:16:56 movement and or corporate interests in China. And again, if what you're trying to do is attract investment dollars and become more westernized or more capital markets focused, that was the plan for the last 20 years. And that's what they told everyone the plan was. But in the last few years, every single move that Xi Jinping has made legally or financially has been a head scratcher. Because it is not, again, logical if you were trying to achieve the outcome that you and I were thinking they were trying to achieve in growing their economy, growing their capital markets, and becoming the Asian financial hub. It is the counter-foreign sanctions law, the counter-espionage law, the counter-espionage law requires every single Chinese citizen to spy on their neighbors

Starting point is 00:17:40 and tell them if they think they're doing anything that might counter national interests. And it just, again, put an enormous chilling effect on investment. But even abroad, that's how they extend their authoritarianism to even in the United States. Imagine if you are a Chinese national and you're in school here or you already have a job here at a tech company and you're looking and let's say you have your green card. But your parents still live in Beijing and your grandparents live in Beijing or your family still lives there. If Beijing activates you and tells you you need to give us data on that company or the U.S. government or anyone you interface with, you're forced to give it to them. So there is, it's difficult to draw a line. And again, this is not xenophobic.

Starting point is 00:18:24 This is our known foreign adversary as defined by the Director of National Intelligence and his threat assess report to Congress every year. Now, every single person that has any relative in China can actually be coerced to break U.S. law and forced to spy for China. And so these moves in their legal system have really had a chilling effect on the world. But if you were to write them all on a wall, this is what's important in our offices and our firm, is we just get out of whiteboard and we say, let's just write the facts on the wall. Let's forget about any kind of reporting slat, any kind of media bias, any of these things.

Starting point is 00:19:07 Let's just look at the facts. And when you put all the facts out there on a whiteboard, they all point in one direction. And unfortunately, that means towards the acquisition of Taiwan and towards a militaristic belligerence that maybe, you know, Clay, maybe the world's starting to believe that's who they are. I made that determination in 2016. And you just have to spend enough time to just do the reading and understand what he's saying and what the Communist Party is doing. Now, if you look at his purge of the missile force, his purge of the military, his purge of this Politburo, he's taken anyone out that had any prior allegiance to Zhang Jimin to any prior ruler. And we probably, you probably

Starting point is 00:19:50 saw what happened to Huzentau in the party Congress when he was humiliatingly removed from the Congress. That was Xi Jinping sending a message. Everyone knows their life to me now. We won't accept any dissenting views. And it is now the mal-reincarnate of our generation is now running China. And he's not logical, but he's driven. And he's driven to achieve these changes to the legal system, to the financial system, to their military that scare me. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.

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Starting point is 00:24:22 WSb. That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right, back to the show. In light of those laws that you mentioned that were passed around COVID and ever since COVID, I actually ran across this chart that showed data from the administration of foreign exchange. It showed that China's inbound foreign direct investment has just essentially collapsed. I mean, this data shows it was north of $300 billion just prior to COVID. And then in 2023 is around $33 billion. Does that data sound accurate to you? That's right.

Starting point is 00:24:57 And there's a caveat to that data where they don't asterisk and don't tell you this, but it's actually wildly negative. And let me explain to you how. If you are a corporate interest in the U.S. or a multinational and you have business in China, like Tesla's got business in China, you know, there are plenty of multinationals that have business there. Chevron has business there. They, the profits they make in China get put in a Chinese bank and China never lets them out. So I know many multinational companies that have hired friends of mine to try to get their money out.

Starting point is 00:25:30 And China just, pardon the pun, gives them a bunch of red tape and won't allow the money out. Every dollar that's made by a multinational in China, if it stays in the bank through the end of the year, it's counted as foreign direct investment into China. So when you look at the FDI numbers, they'll always be until they nationalize everything, right? Multinational profits in China are automatically FDI. And I think that's also a lens that we need to be thinking about looking at things through. So what you see is a complete collapse of FDI. By the way, Clay, given all of the legal. changes we've spoken about. And given Xi Jinping's publicly declared limitless partnership with the world's

Starting point is 00:26:12 number one war criminal, he's not only declared it, he's ratified it. They've met multiple times and they say things publicly like we're changing the world in a way that people haven't changed the world in a hundred years. Well, what on earth does that mean, Clay? So you have to realize that this is a very precarious time that we live in. You had mentioned sanctions. So if China were to end up invading Taiwan, they would need to be prepared for severe actions taken by the U.S., including things like sanctions. So what sort of sanctions might the U.S. implement? And how is the CCP potentially working to protect themselves on this front? Yeah, I mean, I know your podcast is intended to be timeless, and I appreciate that about your podcast.

Starting point is 00:26:57 It's not a newsy podcast. But I think that if you notice just in the last few days, and here we see, sit, call it in February of 24. In the last few days, you've seen actually articles written about potentially potential secondary sanctions for Chinese interests helping the Russians acquire technology for the battlefield and for the military, very specific targeted potential secondary sanctions. Again, the Russian sanctions were really disappointing and not even half-hearted. So when I think about China invading Taiwan and the fact that we will have, the world will be in a very different place if they do so because you've had Japan publicly announced that the

Starting point is 00:27:40 moment any kinetic action happens, they will defend Taiwan with everything they have. And as you know, we have Article 5 protections with Japan. So by deductive logic, we will be in that fight the moment it happens in theory. So when I think about sanctions, if you are the President of United States and you've had two buttons to press, one is send carrier strike groups into fight, a kinetic war in the Taiwan Strait, knowing that you're sending tens of thousands of our men and women into certain death. Now, would we prevail? I think we would prevail. I still think we have the most advanced military, the best military in the world. Has China had a big military buildup? Yes. Would it be an awful, ugly battle? Of course, it would. War is the last thing that I want.

Starting point is 00:28:26 Or there's this other button. The other button is the sanctions button. It's the financial tip of the spear. If you remove China's ability to transfer dollars around the world, China still imports 40% of its food every day in dollars. They still import 12 million barrels a day of crude. They're the largest importer of energy in the world and they have to pay for it in dollars. They're the largest importer of LNG in the world every single day and they have to pay for it in dollars. If I'm president, I press that button and that button collapses the Chinese economy. And I'll give you a great historical analog. You know, the wall in Russia didn't fall because the Russian leadership woke up one day and said,

Starting point is 00:29:12 you know what, I think you're right. I think your value system is better than ours. I think your organizational system is better. You know what, democracy is just better than communism. And we agree. That's not what happened. If you remember what happened, oil was taken down to 10 or 11 bucks, a barrel in the Middle East and was overproducing. And Urales crude represented over 60% of Russian GDP, and we broke them.

Starting point is 00:29:39 That's what happened. We broke the Russians, and that's how we dismantled the USSR. We can do it again with China. Now, will a bunch of American business interests lose huge amounts of money? Yes. Did they deserve to lose it? Of course they do. They invested in a communistic country.

Starting point is 00:29:57 Investing in communism, you started this podcast with major averages are down, you know, of 40% over a number of years and 20% this year. Think about this. Since the day that China took over Hong Kong in 2020, when COVID magically appeared at the height of the Hong Kong protests, Hong Kong's markets are down 50, 50%. They've dropped every year since China took over. They've dropped every year for the last four years as the beginning of the fifth year that we're in today.

Starting point is 00:30:26 And this year, they were already down 12%. So you've lost half your money. I mean, the beatings will continue until you actually figure out that investing in communism never works. It never works. Now, it might work for a short period of time because they're trying to juice this market or stop short selling or this or that. But you made this point. Over a 15 year period, if you invested in China 15 years ago in their biggest index, the Shanghai Shenzhen, 300, GDP's up 500 percent and you've lost a third of your money.

Starting point is 00:30:56 Why would you ever do that? Imagine if I told you, Clay, that I know for a fact of a major economy that's going to increase its GDP 500% over the next 15 years. And I know it for sure. You might have gone all in with your money and you'd have lost a third of your money over a 15-year period. In the U.S., we've grown our GDP about 72% over the same timeframe. And the S&P's up over 340%. And we have a rule of law.

Starting point is 00:31:26 And we have the world's most liquid deepest capital markets. If you just, again, write everything up on the walls and you say, well, I need to be diversified. No, you don't need to diversify into communism. You lose every time. You might have a good year, but you'll never win in the long run. And so I think that's important to be thinking about for investors. I want to get to talking more about China's economy. But I think another important point related to the sanctions is what China is doing with their U.S.

Starting point is 00:31:55 treasury holdings. One would think, you know, with interest rates where they're at and, you know, all the imports China gets from the world that they would be continuing to build their U.S. treasury balance. But if they need to worry about sanctions, then they might not head that direction. So is that the primary motivation for them selling off treasuries instead of buying them? And I'm also curious, what would they be diversifying into if it's not treasuries? If you were running very large, positive dollar trade balances. When you think about your net income as a sovereign, if it were positive each year in dollars and the U.S. has the most liquid deepest capital markets, and by the way, the highest short-term interest rates in the world, you'd be piling in the treasury bills.

Starting point is 00:32:38 You might buy one years, you might buy two years, you might buy six months. But your economic return and your liquidity happen to be in the same place, the highest. And instead, all you see is a continued liquidation of Chinese ownership of treasuries. Well, if you actually weren't running a dollar surplus and your economy was doing much worse than you're admitting to and you were trying to prop up your currency by selling dollars to buy your currency, which is what's been happening for the last few years, then what you're projecting and telling the world is one thing and what you're doing is another. For instance, South Korea did this in 97 and 98 until they ran out of dollars. And they actually lied to the world. I don't know if you followed what happened in Asian

Starting point is 00:33:21 financial crisis. But China itself is forced to sell treasuries because they are actually running a negative current account, a negative net income account. So they propagate the narrative of, we have this sort of Damocles holding over your head and we will show you, we will sell your treasuries in an offensive maneuver when what they're really doing is reeling from an economic collapse defensively and they're forced to sell their treasuries because they have to pay for dollar. They have to pay for everything to import every day in dollars. So you wonder where it's going? What's going to spend on a daily basis what they have to buy in dollars? There is no magical pile of dollars that China has. They've been lying all along about the size of their reserves.

Starting point is 00:34:06 So in addition to what's happening here in relation to Taiwan, China definitely seems to be going through a financial crisis of their own, which you've touched on plenty here. And a lot of data has pointed towards an economic contraction, but they actually reported GDP growth of 5.3% in in 2023. And real estate is definitely a big part of China's economy. So what are you seeing in their real estate market and how this plays into the bigger picture? The data that's actually being released, again, whether there's proper fidelity in the data, nobody knows, clearly it's suspect. But you see Hong Kong's real estate down over 25% Again, since China took over, that's the largest decline ever in Hong Kong real estate.

Starting point is 00:34:54 And that's just a harbinger of more to come. And by the way, that's probably, that's the reported number. We know the real numbers are much worse. And we have a couple of anecdotes from people that we know that have traded in that market and been forced to trade in the real estate market there. And it's much worse than people think it is. But when you think about the Chinese, you mentioned the Chinese real estate is vital to their GDP.

Starting point is 00:35:17 somewhere between 33 and 40% of their GDP. It's 70% of their net worth. And it was the primary driver of the Chinese miracle of their GDP growth. And imagine if you allowed reckless speculation in your real estate markets. Well, your GDP grows, all the auxiliary services grow. Everyone technically gets wealthier and wealthier. The banks lend into it. Their banking system is three and a half times the size of its GDP. The U.S. going into financial crisis was one times our GDP. And you know how bad we screwed this up back in 2008. And if you include non-banks like Fannie and Freddie and other financials, we're about 1.7 times. They're three and a half times lever to their GDP. They've only been at capital markets for about 20 years ever since they ascended to the

Starting point is 00:36:05 WTO. Are there a bunch of smart technocrats in China? Yeah, they're smart. We were smart too. and you know where we got. Their leverage is instantly more than ours was going into 08. Their system is brand new, and they have multiple plates spinning, and the plates are starting in the fall. So in the real estate market, if real estate starts to drop, what happens? Well, local government debt financing vehicles can't pay their debts. Well, that's a real problem because that's a $13 trillion market.

Starting point is 00:36:33 Every public developer in China is in bankruptcy. between China Evergrand and Country Garden, two companies have $500 billion worth of debt that trade in like single pennies. And if you think about the U.S. financial crisis, we lost about $880 billion of equity in our system. There's two companies that have $500 billion that's been wiped out. And all the rest of them in bankruptcy and all the municipalities can't pay their debts. The order of magnitude of what's happening there is multiples of what it was here. And they have a close capital account. Like, they're in real trouble, right?

Starting point is 00:37:15 They can't just fix things. Now, Xi Jinping on the R&B side, meaning internally in their economy, could he print a huge amount of R&B, abandoned moral hazard and just plug these holes? Yes. And it's likely what he will do. He will create internal inflation, which is, again, a large problem when your youth is unemployed. I have a theory, thesis, that looks to be true. It's hard to prove. But you know what the demographers were saying about China's population, kind of crowning

Starting point is 00:37:46 and heading down in between, call it, a couple of years ago in 2050, we knew it was going to come down a little bit, way out to 2050. And now that number is collapsing. And the average fertility rate of the Chinese woman is 1.2. You need 2.1 to sustain a population. My view on this is if you allow real estate to reach the heights that it reached in China, again, if you look at median home price in the U.S. to median income, at the peak of our subprime folly, it was about six and a half times.

Starting point is 00:38:17 In China, today, it's around 17 times and it got as high as 25 times in Tier 1 cities. So completely unaffordable, no way can you buy these things. So what happens to the men graduating university? Well, they can't afford to buy an apartment, so they go live with mom and dad. They live with mom and dad in the basement or in another room. They're not having kids. They're not marrying. So you see the Chinese marriage rate collapse.

Starting point is 00:38:43 You see the birth rate collapse. That's the unintended consequence of allowing a market to grow unregulated, unabated, in a speculative frenzy, which was their real estate market. So when Xi Jinping said, financial security is national security two years ago, and he said, no more speculating in real estate. Have you noticed it hasn't bounced? It can't bounce. It actually needs to come back down to a level that allows his economy to operate properly.

Starting point is 00:39:10 Well, what does that do? Wipes out the banks. What does that do? It takes every Western investor that invested a penny in their real estate markets is going to be wiped out, completely wiped out. And their GDP is going to be reset. And their GDP is much lower minus that rampant speculation than anyone thinks it is. And so all of those things are also a real problem if you're thinking about geopolitics.

Starting point is 00:39:33 You're thinking about Xi Jinping's consolidation of power and what he wants and what he wants to achieve. And what's happening to his economy right now is a complete collapse in his real estate markets and the architecture of his system. If that's the case, Clay, do you think that means that he is more or less likely to move kinetically on Taiwan? Well, he can change the narrative pretty quickly and generates a national. fervor because he controls all of the tools of dictatorship in his hand today. He has all of it. And so he controls the narrative. He controls the military. He controls the Politburo. He can actually create a narrative to the people in China, propagate it, and go fight. And so I know that doesn't sound logical to any economic actor, but it's very logical if you get in the head of

Starting point is 00:40:21 Xi Jinping. That's why I think this war over Taiwan is coming. Let's take a quick break and hear from today sponsors. No, it's not your imagination. Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business. That's why VANTA is a game changer. VANTA automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI-powered platform. So whether you're prepping for a SOC 2 or running an enterprise GRC program, VANTA keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving. Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, Vanta gives you continuous automation across more than 35 security and privacy frameworks. Companies like Ramp and Riter spend 82% less time on audits with Vantta. That's not just faster compliance,

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Starting point is 00:43:53 and that just shook the whole world economy. So I'm curious if you see the crisis in China affecting other major economies globally in the coming years. Look, I hope I'm wrong about this. I mean, it's obvious that on some percentage of right because it's happening. I hope I'm wrong about the war part. And I don't have any great history of predicting a geopolitical disaster on the war side, on the kinetic side. But if you just, I'm trying to look at all the cards as they lie and decide what's likely to happen. So when you look at the global financial crisis, you know, China actually became the engine that pulled the world out of the global financial crisis. That's when they became a believer in themselves that they were now the prime of power.

Starting point is 00:44:40 And you heard everyone say, like, there's almost this Ipsaid Dixit statement or edict that, you know, East is rising and the West is declining. Like, that was the narrative they wanted out there. They thought they pulled the world out of the financial crisis and they did it by increasingly size of their money supplied and allowing their real estate market to grow unabated and attracting capital. Now the capital is going the other way. If China has a real problem like they're having now, will global GDP take a hit? It will. Will we have a depression?

Starting point is 00:45:17 Probably not. What the U.S. and Europe are so good at is besides the fact that we are the entrepreneurial leaders of the world and we have the best companies in the world, we have the best governance system in the world, we have the deepest capital markets in the world, we will adapt. If we can't buy something in China, we'll buy it somewhere else. And yes, it might be a little bit more expensive. It might be difficult to get. But we will adapt.

Starting point is 00:45:41 If all of a sudden there was a forced decoupling today, would that be difficult? Yes, it would be difficult. Are there national security problems? Yes. Chips, rare earth metals processing. We all know these things, right? And pharmaceuticals, basic APIs for antibiotics. Those are all problems.

Starting point is 00:45:57 Is it rocket science kind of problems? Or is it just focus in capital? Just focus in capital. Now, chips, two nanometer chips. are really hard to make. No one can make them except TSM and they're only made in Taiwan, be a problem. But if we had to all of a sudden revert back to two generations ago of iPhones, would the world stop? No, wouldn't stop, right? So again, I'm not trying to say the world's coming to an end if this happens. It'll be difficult. And you're asking if there'll be a global

Starting point is 00:46:25 hiccup in economic prosperity. And the answer is yes, there would be. We've had so many decades of prosperity. In the global financial crisis, what? It's kind of a bad, 18 months in the market. Things turn around February of 2009. We expanded the Fed's balance sheet and voila. We were back to profits and rich people got richer and very few people lost money in the long run. So long periods of time of prosperity create weak leadership.

Starting point is 00:46:52 They create the, let's just say the wrong incentives to growing a really strong economy and strong nation. And that's where we are right now. We're after many periods of pure economic prosperity And we're at a point in time in which, unfortunately, we have a ground war in Europe with Russia, Ukraine. We have Hamas, Israel. We even have basically, you know, the Shia is willing to bind together, even with the

Starting point is 00:47:19 other world's malign actors like China and Russia, and act in concert and share information. Well, that's really scary. The world's kind of bifurcating into good guys and bad guys. And unfortunately, that's where we stand today. Before we get to how you invest in this environment, I wanted to mention that during your previous chat with us on the show, you were pretty adamant that the U.S. wouldn't be able to afford increasing interest rates to the degree that they have to tackle inflation. Recently, you also said that the Fed is just totally out of touch with the reality.

Starting point is 00:47:53 So presumably you think it's a big mistake that they have taken the actions that they have with regards to interest rates. I'm curious to get your take on why that is. however else you want to take that. In the circles of the DC elite, the academic elite, it's a very self-congratulatory circle. They're not critical of each other. I've been invited into several of these meetings with the key people. And I am taken back when I hear them debating the Phillips curve.

Starting point is 00:48:22 And I know this is a this is not a pure economics podcast, but Phillips Curb is basically the relationship between unemployment and wages. And it's kind of a historical relationship and talking about the Phillips curve. And today, though, I was talking about, do you think the service sector workers, like the bartenders or waitresses, do you think that there are future expectations of inflation are driving their wage demands? And you sit in a room with 15 of these people. And I say, have any of you spoken with a bartender or waitress lately? I said, you guys just created 40% more broad money in 18 months.

Starting point is 00:48:57 and you created 45% inflation. That's about what happened. Now, they've only admitted to about 17% inflation because they chain weight things and the way that it's calculated by the BLS and the Fed are, we even want to go there. Bottom line is they're not admitting to the inflation that they just created. Now, you and I and our wallets know exactly what we pay for food and energy and goods and buildings and houses. And we know what those things cost today.

Starting point is 00:49:26 In fact, the NIHB, the government's own index is up 47% in three years. Right now, that's not chain weighted. That's actually a price. So when you think about that and think about the Fed, the Fed created 40% more broad money in an 18-month period and generated massive inflation. And now they've raised rate 600 bibs, 550, 600 bibs. And it slowed a few things down. But at the same time, the Fed and the Treasury,

Starting point is 00:49:55 look, you want to believe they're apolitical, but people like the vice chair, right, checks to people like Hillary Clinton. And again, I'm not being political, a Democrat or a Republican. I'm just stating a fact that those people don't want someone like Donald Trump ever being president. And I'm not a Trump voter, just to be clear, but I'm telling you that if you look at what they're doing now, since November of last year, they realized, remember when the 10 year got above 5% and everyone was talking about the 10-year cracking 5% and that it was a real problem.

Starting point is 00:50:29 Janet Yellen flipped and started funding 80% on the front end, 20% on the back end. Well, if you and I had the back end 100% 100 base points lower than the front end, we'd be funding ourselves at the cheaper rate, not the more expensive rate. And then there's there are a bunch of things that Yellen and Powell can do was kind of think about it as funding slush markets, they call it a slush fund market. They've got about a trillion five between them today and they're spending it. They're flooding the market with liquidity to make the economy feel like it's growing and everything's fine. It's important to note that interest expense is, if it were reset today at these rates,

Starting point is 00:51:10 is far exceeds that of defense spending. We're talking about almost a trillion dollars of interest expense. So when I mean the US government can't really afford a 550, 600 basis point increase, it's true. Last year, the US government spent $6.1 trillion. We brought in $4.4 trillion in tax receipts. We ran one of the largest deficits in the history of our country in peacetime at full employment. So is that sound policy? That is absolutely crazy.

Starting point is 00:51:42 And yet here we are. And when was the last time you heard Tea Party out of the Republicans? No one's what the Fed and the Treasury taught everyone is just spend. do whatever you want to do, we've got it. We will run monster deficits and we will create inflation in America and we'll just keep running with it and we'll just keep underreporting it. And that's literally where they are today. So they think they saved the world from the virus that emanated from Wuhan in 2019, 2020. And now they think they've gotten the inflation dragon under control. And Clay, when you hear terms like transitory, if the price level, let's just do a quick exercise,

Starting point is 00:52:23 the price level was 100 in January of 2020, and it's 145 today. And let's say for one year's time, it stays at 145, which means there's zero inflation reported because it's a year-over-year number. It was transitory. They won. But you and I are still paying 145 as a price level as opposed to 100, three years ago. It's an abject disaster for our checkbooks. And yet they have won.

Starting point is 00:52:47 They've tamed the inflation dragon. It's just silly the way you think, the way that things are reported as opposed to your wallet and my wallet. I can't spend a chainweighted dollar. I spend a real dollar. And a real dollar pays real prices. They don't pay the price if you chainweight a car back to what it was 30 years ago with the same components. I actually have to buy today's car with today's dollar. And so they're disconnected from reality in many ways.

Starting point is 00:53:14 ways and their self-congratulatory circles are actually pretty scary if you actually get to go behind the curtain and listen to them. So that's what I mean. Can the US afford six percent rates? Well, absolutely not. We just, again, we spent $6.1 trillion on $4.4 trillion of receipts. People talk about deficits in a percentage of GDP. I kind of think it's a percentage of what we earned. You know, we spent almost 40% more than we earned last year, 40, 40, 40. You know, what? whether it's 4% of GDP or 5 or 6, like the average American has no idea what that means, and it's by design. If you say, well, we spent 6.1 and we only made 4.4 trillion, that's really bad, right?

Starting point is 00:53:57 And so I think it's important to have, all right, I'm getting on a soapbox, but they're 18 unelected people that control monetary policy for the whole world. That's pretty interesting. They have no oversight. They have to go to Congress every now and then do Humphrey-Ockins testimony, and that's about it. And they use economic speak and they move on. And then they go, high five themselves on saving the world from COVID and taming the inflation dragon. And here we are with the 145 price level.

Starting point is 00:54:24 And by the way, that disproportionately affects the poor in the middle class, right? The rich own the assets and are levered to the assets that have gone up in price. How many rich people do you know that are less rich today than they were in 2020? I don't know one. I don't know one. So how many poor people do you know? Or let's just say economically disadvantaged folks that are doing better today than they were back then, it's so much worse because they didn't even have a disposable income back then.

Starting point is 00:54:54 And now the price of everything has moved up 40, 45%. So this is a disaster for those people. And so that's the insidious nature of inflation and underreporting inflation and self-cratulatory circles in D.C. It's obvious to you and I and to our wallets. It's just hard to boil down into words. One thing I really like about you is your contrarian view and especially contrarian views when it comes to investing in the markets. For example, you capitalize on the great financial crisis back in 08. I remember during your last chat, you discussed farmland. Has your positioning as an investor changed much at all over the past year or two?

Starting point is 00:55:37 No. Thank you for saying so. I believe the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet. I believe we're going to have a permanent $7 trillion Fed balance sheet. Again, think about this. From 1972 to 2008, the Fed only expanded its balance sheet by about $900 billion. From 08 to 2019, it expanded from $900 billion to about $4.5 trillion. And then in 18 months, it hit $9 trillion. It's a parabola. So once you put the money in the system, you can't take it out. So when I think about what's going to happen next and how I need to, how you and I and everyone listening needs to defend themselves from what's inevitably coming our way. I want to be invested in real assets, real productive assets. And assets also, that's kind of a broad statement, but assets that are

Starting point is 00:56:28 productive, assets that have some sort of income, but also I want to find assets where population migrations are happening in the best markets in the world, which happens to be in the U.S., So when you think about in the U.S., you look at the coastal region, the West Coast, and the Northeast being very high cost, very high taxed. One could say mismanaged jurisdictions. And where are the population movements happening in America? Well, they're moving to pro-business, lower costs, lower or no tax jurisdictions. So you see movements, massive population movements to places like Florida, Tennessee, and Texas. And I say, you know, rich people can go to Cortaline, Idaho and Aspen and this and that.

Starting point is 00:57:13 You can't move real companies to places like that. You have to move real companies where there's affordability, where there's expansive activity, where there are natural resources to accommodate those movements. So I want to buy real estate in front of that macro movement. And I actually want to be levered to that real estate. And I want to use prudent amount of leverage. And then if you care about the environment, you care about and not in a sense of just like buying carbon credits and feeling good, in a sense of actually fixing environmental impacts, well, I'm layering those on top of owning the real estate to protect myself and building wetlands and rebuilding streams, creeks and rivers, and charging the people that are impacting those markets, huge amounts of money for their impacts by selling them actual federally regulated credits. It's a great business.

Starting point is 00:58:06 It is super fun. You put on your snake boots, your waterproof snake boots, and you go out into wetlands and out into timber forests, and you do the things that I know over the next 10 years will definitely maintain and grow the wealth. And we'll also have all of the macro tailwinds that are back. Now, if there's a China-Taiwan war, will rates go to zero?

Starting point is 00:58:31 They'll go to zero right away. The Fed will expand its balance. asset prices will continue to go up. So I want to own what's going to continue to go up. That also means stocks, you know, stocks are up. I would rather own something tangible and productive that has even better macro tailwinds. And now I say that the people that own Nvidia

Starting point is 00:58:51 are much smarter than I. I don't know how to value things like that into the future. I know the AI chip revolution is unbelievable. I know every 10,000 new chips cost $500 million. I know Nvidia is the best in the world at what they do. I'm not a tech investor. I'm not truly a biotech investor. So I'm just telling you what I know.

Starting point is 00:59:12 And when you think about generational wealth over time, how many big generational wealth families do you know that own a lot of land in interesting areas? Just about all of them, right? So I'm thinking about preserving and growing that wealth more carefully. And that's what we're doing at our firm Conservation Equity Management is something I started two and a half a year. years ago. And you know, I'm having a ball doing it. And it was a major change in my life

Starting point is 00:59:38 after being stuck to a screen since I was 21 years old. And it's redemptive. It's fun. I know that we're going to win. I just don't know how much we're going to win. And I know that I'll be able to counter whatever the Fed's doing because of what we're doing. So when I, Clay, when I think about allocating family capital, you know, I think things like apartment complexes, things like land and what we're doing ahead of major population migrations. I think there's so many ways to skin the cap. And I've chosen one that's just a lot of fun for us. So, you know, I think, and also there's this intense desire.

Starting point is 01:00:18 ESG has kind of become a bad word because some of these things were greenwashed and were proven to be ridiculous. Get this, the largest investment in the biggest ESG fund on Wall Street was Alibaba. You can't even make that up. How Alibaba fits the ESG fund? There's some Tom Foolery that I actually never figured out. Now, once you study financial markets long enough and you read about some of these investors that short things or bet against markets, eventually they get to a point where they get burned

Starting point is 01:00:48 for doing so. And with all your knowledge around China and how their bubble is much bigger than what the great financial crisis was, presumably you aren't long anything in China. So given your knowledge, I'm curious to hear if your position, to benefit from falling prices in any markets related to that? There is a setup today in the world that I have never seen before and I actually don't think it'll ever happen again. So the linkage between the US dollar and the Chinese R&B is the Hong Kong dollar.

Starting point is 01:01:21 And the Hong Kong dollars freely interchangeable with US dollars at a very narrow band. Call it seven spot, 75 to seven spot eight five, a really narrow band. And if I'm right about all of the financial troubles I was just telling you about, it's a little bit of a complex situation, but we have an organization in our asset management firm where we have a giant position in one thing. And this is it. We can buy US treasuries, post them as collateral for selling the Hong Kong dollar forward. That's super interesting because if nothing happens, I still make three and a half, four percent

Starting point is 01:01:57 because of the positive carry. So they're paying me to put on a levered position that allows me to invest around the views I've just given you for the last hour. And if I'm wrong, I still make money. That's really interesting. If I'm right, we will make multiples of our capital. So that is an endeavor that I will continue to invest around. And I think it's inevitable.

Starting point is 01:02:21 It will happen. I don't know when, right? The peg was put on, the US dollar peg was put on Hong Kong in 1983. because the Hong Kong dollar was collapsing 50% versus Western currencies when the world found out that Britain was negotiating to give Hong Kong back to the Chinese. And again, here's a fun historical anecdote. The day that they handed Hong Kong back to China was July 1st, 1997. Do you know when the Asian financial crisis began? July 2nd, 1997 is when the Thai bot broke its peg to the dollar. Some might say it's a coincidence. Clearly it's not.

Starting point is 01:02:59 And now here we are again with China absolutely walking away from the Sino-British Joint Declaration 1983 in the U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act in 92. They just took over the legal system and the whole system of Hong Kong really early. They promised to leave it alone for 50 years and they took it early. So again, you ask how you position yourself around that. It is an institutional issue because you have to have, is the agreement, you have to be able to sell things forward. and it's not as easy of just buying an ETF,

Starting point is 01:03:29 but building that mousetrap, once you built it, you might as well keep it. And we have a great, a big bet there. And it's for me a lot of fun. And one day, that will happen.

Starting point is 01:03:41 Well, Kyle, I really appreciate you joining me. It's an honor having you back on the show. For a final handoff here, I just want to give you a chance to give a handoff to the audience and how they can learn more about you and any other resources you like to share

Starting point is 01:03:53 and potentially anything else we needed to cover today. Yeah, sure. I mean, again, we focus on investors in private markets at our firm. And it's our firms, we have Heyman Capital handles the Hong Kong situation. And then we have, we have conservation equity management, which are private equity firm where we're buying huge amounts of real estate in front of big macro population movements and doing environmental work. And all of those are based in Dallas and Nacadoches, Texas, which is probably a place you've

Starting point is 01:04:24 never heard of before, one of the best forestry schools in the country is there. And so if you want to reach out to us, look up Conservation Equity Management's website or Hayman's website and go through Steel Schottenheimer and we'd be happy to talk. Thanks for saying so quickly. Amazing. I'll be sure to get all that linked in the show notes for those interested. Great. Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow We Study Billionaires on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only, before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network.

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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP611: The Bear Case for China w/ Kyle Bass

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