We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP637: Jeff Bezos's Shareholder Letters w/ Clay Finck

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey, everybody, welcome to the Investors Podcast. I'm your host, Clay Fink. On today's episode, I'll be reviewing Jeff Bezos's shareholder letters, who's just a master capital allocator and has delivered unprecedented value to shareholders during his tenure as CEO of Amazon. I thoroughly enjoyed going through these letters and better understanding the exceptional capital allocation decisions that Jeff Bezos was making during his tenure as CEO of Amazon

Starting point is 00:00:28 from 1994 through 2021. I think you're really going to enjoy this episode. At the end of this episode, I'll also play a couple of clips that I thought were quite interesting in going through some of Bezos's early interviews in the early days of Amazon. With that, let's get right to it. Celebrating 10 years and more than 150 million downloads. You are listening to the Investors Podcast Network. Since 2014, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made

Starting point is 00:01:00 billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now, for your host, Clay Fink. So Amazon.com was founded on July 5th, 1994, and the company went public on May 15th, 1997. So the 1997 shareholder letter is the first letter that was available to the public. If you're interested in learning about the whole story of how Bezos started Amazon, I actually did an episode on how the company developed and how I got started on. Over time, that episode covered Brad Stone's book, The Everything Store, which is covered back on episode 506. I think a good place to start this episode is simply by reading the 1997 letter.

Starting point is 00:01:50 It's amazing looking back at just how clear Bezos was thinking with where you wanted to take the company and how well that strategy ended up working out for Amazon. This first letter is a few pages long, so bear with me here. Bezos writes, to our shareholders, Amazon.com passed many miles. milestones in 1997. By year-end, we had served more than 1.5 million customers, yielding 838% revenue growth to $147 million and extended our market leadership despite aggressive competitive entry. But this is day one for the internet, and if we execute well, for Amazon.com. Today, online commerce saves customers money and precious time. Tomorrow, through personalization,

Starting point is 00:02:35 online commerce will accelerate the very process of discovery. Amazon.com uses the internet to create real value for its customers, and by doing so, hopes to create an enduring franchise, even an established in large markets. We have a window of opportunity as larger players marshal the resources to pursue the online opportunity, and as customers, new to purchasing online are receptive to forming new relationships. The competitive landscape has continued to evolve at a fast pace. Many large players have moved online with credible offerings and have devoted substantial energy and resources to building awareness, traffic, and sales.

Starting point is 00:03:16 Our goal is to move quickly to solidify and extend our current position while we begin to pursue the online commerce opportunities in other areas. We see substantial opportunity in the large markets we're targeting. This strategy is not without risk. It requires serious investment and crisp execution against established franchise leaders. Then the headline here, it's all about the long term. We believe a fundamental measure of our success will be the shareholder value we create over the long term. This value will be a direct result of our ability to extend and solidify our current market leadership position.

Starting point is 00:03:53 The stronger our market leadership, the more powerful our economic model. Market leadership can translate directly to higher revenue, higher profitability, greater capital velocity, and correspondingly stronger returns on capital. Our decisions have consistently reflected this focus. We first measure ourselves in terms of the metrics most indicative of our market leadership. Customer in revenue growth, the degree of which our customers continue to purchase from us on a repeat basis, in the strength of our brand. We have invested in will continue to invest aggressively to expand and leverage our customer base, brand and infrastructure as we move to establish an enduring franchise. Because of our emphasis on the long term,

Starting point is 00:04:37 we may make decisions and weigh tradeoffs differently than some companies. Accordingly, we want to share with you our fundamental management and decision-making approach so that you, our shareholders, may confirm that it is consistent with your investment philosophy. We will continue to focus relentlessly on customers. Then he has a number of bullet points here that emphasize this focus on customers. First, we will continue to make investment decisions in light of long-term market leadership considerations rather than short-term profitability considerations or short-term Wall Street reactions. We will continue to measure our programs and the effectiveness of our investments analytically to jettison those that do not provide acceptable returns and to step up

Starting point is 00:05:21 our investment in those that work best. We will continue to learn from both our successes and our failures. will make bold rather than timid investment decisions where we see sufficient probability of gaining market leadership advantages, some of these investments will pay off, others will not, and we will have learned another valuable lesson in either case. When forced to choose between optimizing the appearance of our gap accounting and maximizing the present value of our future free cash flows, will take the cash flows. We will share our strategic thought processes with you when we make bold decisions to the extent competitive pressures allow, so that you may evaluate for yourselves whether we are making rational long-term leadership investments. We will work hard to spend wisely

Starting point is 00:06:07 and maintain our lean culture. We understand the importance of continually reinforcing a cost-conscious culture, particularly in a business incurring net losses. We will balance our focus on growth with emphasis on long-term profitability and capital management. At this stage, we choose to prioritize growth because we believe that scale is central to achieving the potential of our business model. And then the last bullet point here, we will continue to focus on hiring and retaining versatile and talented employees and continue to wait their compensation to stock options rather than cash. We know our success will largely be affected by our ability to attract and retain a motivated employee base, each of whom must think like and therefore must actually be an owner.

Starting point is 00:06:53 I love that point. So we are so bold as to claim that the above is the quote-unquote right investment philosophy, but it's ours, and we would be remiss if we weren't clear in the approach we have taken and we'll continue to take. With this foundation, we would like to turn a review to our business focus, our progress in 1997 and our outlook for the future. And then the headlines here is obsess over customers. From the beginning, our focus has been on offering our customers compelling value. We've realized that the web was and still is the worldwide weight. Therefore, we set out to offer customers something they simply couldn't get any other way and began serving them with books.

Starting point is 00:07:37 We brought them much more selection than was possible in a physical store and presented it in a useful, easy-to-search, an easy-to-brouse format, and a store opened 365 days a year, 24 hours a day. We maintained a dogged focus on improving the shopping experience and in 1997, substantially enhanced our store. We now offer customer gift certificates, one-click shopping, and vastly more reviews, content, browsing options, and recommendation features. We dramatically lowered prices, further increasing customer value, word of mouth remains the

Starting point is 00:08:10 most powerful customer acquisition tool we have, and we are grateful for the trust our customers have placed in us. Repeat purchases and word of mouth have combined to make Amazon.com the market leader and online book selling. By many measures, Amazon.com came a long way in 1997. So sales grew from 15.7 million in 1996 to 147 million in 1997. That's an 838% increase. Cumulative customer accounts grew from 180,000 to 1.5 million, 738% increase. The percentage of orders that came from repeat customers grew from 46% in the fourth quarter to 58% in the same period. for 1997. In terms of audience reach, their website's rank went from 90th to within the top 20,

Starting point is 00:08:58 and then they established relationships with some important partners. He lists America Online, Yahoo, Netscape, and a few others here. And then he's gotten section on infrastructure. During 1997, we worked hard to expand our business infrastructure to support these greatly increased traffic, sales, and service levels. Amazon.com's employee base grew from 158 to 614, and we worked in a we significantly strengthened our management team. Distribution center capacity grew from 50,000 to 285,000 square feet. So inventories grew to over 200,000 titles at year end, enabling us to improve availability for our customers. Our cash and investment balances at year end were $125 million, thanks to our initial public offering in May 1997 and our $75 million loan affording us substantial

Starting point is 00:09:50 strategic flexibility. And then a section here on employees. This past year's success is the product of a talented, smart, hardworking group, and I take great pride in being a part of this team. Setting the bar high and our approach to hiring has been and will continue to be the single most important element of Amazon.com's success. It's not easy to work here. When I interview people, I tell them you can work long, hard, or smart, but at Amazon.com,

Starting point is 00:10:17 you can't choose two out of the three. but we are working to build something important, something that matters to our customers, something that we can all tell our grandchildren about. Such things aren't meant to be easy. We are incredibly fortunate to have this group of dedicated employees whose sacrifices in passion build Amazon.com. And then the last section here is on Goals for 1998. We are still in the early stages of learning how to bring new value to our customers

Starting point is 00:10:43 through internet commerce and merchandising. Our goal remains to continue to select. and extend our brand and customer base. This requires sustained investment in systems and infrastructure to support outstanding customer convenience, selection, and service while we grow. We are planning to add music to our product offering, and over time we believe that other products may be prudent investments. We also believe that there are significant opportunities to better serve our customers overseas, such as reducing delivery times and better tailoring the customer experience. To be certain, a big part of the challenge for us will lie not in finding new ways to expand our business,

Starting point is 00:11:23 but in prioritizing our investments. We now know vastly more about online commerce than when Amazon.com was founded, but we still have so much more to learn. Though we are optimistic, we must remain vigilant and maintain a sense of urgency. The challenges and hurdles we will face to make our long-term vision for Amazon.com of reality are several. Aggressive, capable, well-funded, competition, considerable growth challenges and execution risks, the risks of product and geographic expansion, and the need for large continuing investments to meet an expanding market opportunity. However, as we've long said, online book selling and online commerce in general should prove to be a very large market.

Starting point is 00:12:07 And it's likely that a number of companies will see significant benefit. We feel good about what we've done and we've been more excited about what we want to do. 1997 was indeed an incredible year. We at Amazon.com are grateful to our customers for their business and trust, to each other for our hard work, and to our shareholders for their support and encouragement. Jeffrey P. Bezos, founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Inc. So that was the end of the 1997 letter there, and there's just so, so much to like. The first thing I would say is just how easy it is to follow.

Starting point is 00:12:41 So many shareholder letters nowadays are filled with just so much jar. I think it goes over a lot of shareholders' heads, and it's attended to be like that for many companies. I think Buffett had said that he would write his letters as if he was writing to his Aunt Alice, who wasn't a sophisticated investor. It's also amazing that Bezos recognized so early that they really needed to think so long term and to have that urgency to build out that first mover advantage to try and capture that network effect. So he's super, super candid about what metrics he believes matters most for the success of the company. And then second, he's completely straightforward in sharing those metrics with the shareholders. So in his case, he said that they were

Starting point is 00:13:24 going to measure their progress based on customer and revenue growth, the degree of repeat customers, and then the strength of the brand, which is largely a subjective measure. But there are some things you can do to sort of see whether the brand is heading in the right direction or not. The focus on the long term, it's definitely worth mentioning. You see it time and time again in his letters, he cares much more about long-term value creation rather than the short-term EPS targets or the short-term targets that Wall Street would want him to head. So he's definitely not trying to appeal to Wall Street to try and boost his share price. In most of his letters, he's hardly ever mentioning the share price at all. And of course, you see the jaw-dropping growth. It's just amazing.

Starting point is 00:14:05 Sales increase from $15 million to $147 million in just one year. And this tells you that this is just exceptionally efficient and hardworking and exceptionally good at hiring good people that can handle such an intense workload. And then he emphasizes the importance of adding value to customers. Amazon is an online business utilizing the internet. And this allowed him to add more value to customers through more selection, higher convenience. And one thing that caught my attention is he only mentioned low prices, I think once during that first letter. But they do make that a big focus in some of the later letters. And then the focus, really in the first letter, again, is they're just selling books. And he mentions that he's an e-commerce company in general, and he doesn't call himself, you know, a bookseller. And this

Starting point is 00:14:52 implies that, you know, he's not going to, he doesn't plan to just limit himself to books. That seemed pretty clear as well. So time and time again, throughout the letters, he mentions the alignment of the customer's interest with the alignment of the shareholders' interests. So essentially, he had the thesis that by focusing on delivering the most value to customers, This would also deliver maximum value to the shareholders. So, for example, in his 2010 letter, he wrote, we have unshakable conviction that the long-term interests of shareholders are perfectly aligned with the interests of customers. And then the last thing I'll mention here in reference to the 1997 letter is that if you go to Amazon's website and download any of their letters from 1997 through 2023,

Starting point is 00:15:36 At the end, they go back and just attach the 1997 letter. It's just sort of a subtle reminder to shareholders that, hey, we've been thinking long-term ever since the beginning. We didn't just adopt this long-term framework in 2015 or 2010 or whatnot. They always attach that 1997 letter, which I thought was really cool. And he also acknowledges that what they were doing doesn't come without risk. For example, in the 1998 letter, he wrote, I quote, it is truly day one for the internet, and if we execute our business plan well,

Starting point is 00:16:11 it remains day one for Amazon. Given what's happened, it may be difficult to conceive, but we think the opportunities and risks ahead of us are even greater than those that were behind us. We will have to make many conscious and deliberate choices, some of which will be bold and unconventional. Hopefully, some will turn out to be winners. Certainly, some will turn out to be mistakes, end quote. And I think I heard in one of Bezos's interviews that his parents had given him, I don't know if it was a couple hundred thousand dollars or something to help him start Amazon. And he just straight up told his parents he estimated a 70% chance of failure in starting the company. And this is him even knowing that 90% of businesses fail. So he felt he was giving himself

Starting point is 00:16:55 even pretty good odds. So sales in 1998, they grew a modest 313%. Customer accounts grew by over 300%. And despite Amazon needing to have these massive distribution centers to store their products, he writes, I quote, we're fortunate to benefit from a business model that is cash favored and capital efficient. As we do not need to build physical stores or stock these stores with inventory, our centralized distribution model has allowed us to build our business to a billion dollars sales rate with just $30 million in inventory and $30 million in net plant and equipment. In 1998, we generated 31 million in operating cash flow, which more than offset net fixed asset

Starting point is 00:17:40 additions of 28 million, end quote. Now, this is also just one part of the business that I wanted to better understand in reading these letters, because when you look at the financial statements in 1998, it looks like Amazon is just losing a ton of money. And if Bezos were to write in his letters that the return on invested capital is well over 100%, then, you know, he would have attracted a lot of attention showcasing how profitable his business model is. So that's another reason I sort of when they go through the letters is understand his thinking, understand the business a little bit better, and see how I might be

Starting point is 00:18:15 able to apply that to businesses I'm looking at today. So the income statement for 1998, it shows sales of $609 million, gross profit of $133 million, and a net loss of $124,000. And then I look and I see a marketing and sales expense of 133 million. And this seems pretty big given that this is 20% of the revenue. And then in May of 1998, the company took on a senior note of $326 million at 10% interest in addition to issuing $1.25 billion in convertible debt. And the company also had around 13% dilution in the shareholder base, which all points to a company that's in hyper-growth mode, just totally reinvesting for the future. Yeah, it doesn't

Starting point is 00:19:02 look like they're all that profitable in 1999, at least, but this is just year four of the company. So from an outsider's view, I think a lot of people just saw a company that was just losing more and more money as it grew more and more. It just looked like they were losing more money and they were also issuing shares, taking on more debt and whatnot. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right. I want you guys to imagine spending. three days in Oslo at the height of the summer. You've got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future. That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is. From June 1st through the 3rd,

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Starting point is 00:23:25 That's Shopify.com slash WSB. All right. Back to the show. In 1998, he also wrote, We intend to build the world's most customer-centric company. We hold as axiomatic that customers are perceptive and smart, and that brand image follows reality and not the other way around. Our customers tell us that they choose Amazon.com,

Starting point is 00:23:50 and they tell their friends about us because of the selection, ease of use, low prices, and services we deliver, end quote. So there you can already see the focus on low prices, and then he also follows it up by writing, but there is no rest for the weary. I constantly remind our employees to be afraid, to wake up every morning terrified, not of our competition, but of our customers. Our customers have made our business what it is. They are the ones with whom we have a relationship, and they are the ones to whom we owe a great obligation. And we consider them to be loyal to us right up until the second that someone else offers them a better service.

Starting point is 00:24:31 We must be committed to constant improvement, experimentation, and innovation in every initiative, end quote. He also shared a bit about his hiring approach, since he's proven to be pretty good at bringing on exceptional people. During the company's hiring meetings, the person that was doing, the hiring, he would ask themselves three questions. So first, will you admire this person? So people you admire tend to be people you are able to learn from and then use as an example. Second, is will this person raise the average level of effectiveness of the group they're entering? To avoid becoming complacent

Starting point is 00:25:09 and to fight entropy, Bezos always wanted to raise the bar for their organization. And then third, is along what dimension might this person be a superstar? For each person, Amazon brought on board, they wanted to know what that person was exceptional at. What also stood out to me in the 1998 letter is the increased number of shareholders. So he said in the previous year that there were 13,000 letters that were sent out to shareholders. And then the following year, it must have been the end of 1998. They printed 200,000. And then, you know, you look at the stock price. And I think you had a lot of short-term shareholders that were chasing the rising price with no real interest in the underlying business. So knowing that he had so many new shareholders coming in,

Starting point is 00:25:54 he even wrote a section in 1999 titled, What Do You Own? And this is where he discussed how they set out to be the Earth's most customer-centered company and how they were well positioned to achieve tremendous amounts of scale and profitability relative to other companies that were utilizing the internet. And already in 1999, Bezos had his sites set not only on being the everything store, but being the everything store globally. So in the UK and Germany, for example, Amazon was the number one e-commerce site in each country. He also touched on profitability in the 1999 letter. He wrote, each of the previous goals I've outlined contribute to our long-standing objective of building the best, most profitable, highest return on capital, long-term franchise. So in a way,

Starting point is 00:26:44 driving profitability is the foundation underlying all of these goals. In the coming year, we expect to deliver substantial margin improvement and cost leverage as we drive continuous improvement in our partnerships with suppliers, in our own productivity and efficiency, in our management of fixed and working capital, and our expertise in managing product mix and price. Each successive product and service we launched this year should build on our platform. So our investment curve can be less steep in the time to profitability for each business should, in general, continue to shorten, end quote. So even with this intense focus on customers, he still wants to deliver high returns on capital to shareholders. And he would always say that it's day one for the internet and that

Starting point is 00:27:31 the online shopping experience today is the worst it will ever be as they see continued improvements and bandwidth and the increased use of non-PC devices. I should also note that he didn't even mention his skyrocketing stock price in the 1999 letter, but he did mention the enormous opportunities that lied ahead for the company. You know, that probably gave some investors a lot of hope in what the future was to bring for Amazon. He writes, It's great to be participating in what is a multi-trillion dollar global market in which we are so very tiny. We are doubly blessed. We have a market-sized, unconstrained opportunity in an area where the underlying foundational technology we employ improves every day.

Starting point is 00:28:16 That is not normal. So from the start of 1998, on a split-adjusted basis, the stock had risen from around 24 cents, and then it topped out around $5.30 around the end of 1999. So that was a 22x increase in just under two years. And then it came crashing down to around 30 cents just very briefly in October 2001, before rebounding. For the 2000 shareholder letter, he did reference the stock price. He wrote, Ouch. It's been a brutal year for many in the capital markets and certainly for Amazon.com shareholders. At the time of this writing, our shares are down more than 80% from when I wrote you last year.

Starting point is 00:28:59 Nevertheless, by almost any measure, Amazon.com, the company is in a stronger position now than any time in its past, end quote. There was a clip of Bezos around five years ago where he talked about the collapse of his stock price and how the stock is not the company and the company is not the stock. It's a short clip here that I'm going to include from Jeff Bezos and David Rumenstein, which I'm going to play here. Your stock at one point I think went to $100, but then it went down to $6 or something like that. At the peak of the internet bubble, our stock peaked somewhere around $113. And then after the internet bubble, you know, busted open, our stock went down to six.

Starting point is 00:29:41 It went from 113 to six in less than a year. So my annual shareholder that year starts with a one word sentence. And that one word sentence is the word, ouch. So most of those internet companies of the dot com era are out of business. Yeah. You survive. What was that that made you to survive and virtually the rest of them are gone? Well, that whole period is very interesting because the stock is not the company and the company is not the stock.

Starting point is 00:30:07 And so as I watched the stock fall from 113 to 6, I was also watching all of our internal business metrics, number of customers, profit per unit, you know, everything you can imagine, defects, etc. Every single thing about the business was getting better and fast. And so as the stock price was going the wrong way, everything inside the company was. going the right way and we didn't need to go back to the capital markets we didn't need more money the only reason you know a financial bust like the internet bubble bursting is you know it makes it really hard to raise money but you know we already had the money we needed so we just needed to continue to progress wall street kept saying well amazon's not making any money they're just

Starting point is 00:30:51 getting customers where's the profits where the profits and wall street kept beating you up on that and your response was i don't really care what you think amazon was uh you know we People always accused us of selling dollar bills for 90 cents and said, look, anybody can do that and grow revenues. That's not what we're doing. We always had positive gross margins. It's a fixed cost business. And so what I could see is that from the internal metrics is that at a certain volume level, we would cover our fixed costs and the company would be profitable. So there you see Bezos talking about how the stock and the business are not correlated one-to-one.

Starting point is 00:31:28 Sometimes the stock gets way ahead of the intrinsic value to business, and sometimes it falls far below the intrinsic value. In 2000, customers served increased from $14 million to $20 million. Sales grew from $1.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Average customer spend was $134 up 19%. International sales grew from $168 million to $381 million. And there's about 10 more lines here of metrics that he highlights, and they're all heading. up into the right, in the right direction at least. It's no wonder that Bezos got the attention of value investors like Bill Miller and Nick's sleep around this time. After he listed those metrics,

Starting point is 00:32:10 he writes, so if the company is better positioned today than it was a year ago, why is the stock price so much lower than it was? As the famed investor, Benjamin Graham said, in the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it's a weighing machine. Clearly, there was a lot of voting going on in the boom year of 1999 and much less weighing. We're a company that wants to be weighed, and over time, we will be over the long term. All companies are. In the meantime, we have our heads down working to build a heavier and heavier company, end quote. Amazon wasn't a perfect company, though. Bezos had said many of their investments were going to be duds. They made an investment in Pets.com, which ended up shutting down operations in the year 2000.

Starting point is 00:32:57 At that time, even Amazon got ahead of themselves in reinvesting back into this tech scene. Because they thought that they really needed to act quickly in getting that first mover advantage in many of these markets. And it's also no wonder that the stock saw a massive sell-off when their hyper growth really slowed in 2001. Top line revenue in 2001 only grew by 13%. And, you know, this is probably partially due to management sort of dialing back that. growth initiatives to ensure that the company was going to survive. In the 2001 letter, Bezos again highlighted the intense focus on the customer. In the American Customer's Satisfaction Index Study conducted by the University of Michigan, Amazon was given the highest score ever recorded

Starting point is 00:33:45 by any service company for the second year in a row. And he also highlighted that Amazon was started by focusing on a high level of selection and a high level of convenience. And now they added a third pillar to enhance the customer experience, and that was by relentlessly lowering prices. And despite the share price being down significantly, he reiterated his focus on maximizing the free cash flow per share over the long term. And to achieve that end, Amazon needed to deliver on the best interests of customers and be the leader in e-commerce. He had stated, since we expect to keep our fixed cost largely fixed, even at significantly higher unit volumes, we believe Amazon.com is poised over the coming years to generate meaningful, sustained, free cash flow, end quote.

Starting point is 00:34:36 And dilution is also a concern for investors in a high growth company like Amazon, and he stated that his goal was to limit dilution to an average of 3% per year over the next five years. In 2002, he expanded more on the strategy of continually lowering prices. In most of the retail world, you either have a great customer experience with high prices or a relatively poor customer experience with the lowest prices. Amazon's seeked to deliver on both. The reason they could offer a better value proposition was because the cost to deliver that superior customer experience was relatively fixed.

Starting point is 00:35:12 The ability to deliver an unmatched selection, extensive product information, personalized recommendations for customers and other software features were more or less a fixed expense. He outlined a simple price comparison for books you could get on Amazon versus many of these physical bookstores. So he took 100 of the bestselling books across various categories, and they compared that to what was happening or what was being sold in the physical stores. So they visited all these super stores in Seattle and New York, and they browsed through different stores until they could run a price comparison on all 100 of the top selling books. They found that across those 100 bucks, it cost $1,561 at the physical locations, but it only costed just under $1,200 on Amazon. So that

Starting point is 00:36:02 accounted for a 23% difference in the price or a $366 difference. And on 72 of the books, Amazon's price was cheaper than the physical stores. 25 of the books, they offered the same price, And then there were three books that they found that Amazon charged a higher price, which he mentions that they decided to lower the prices on those three bucks. In the physical stores, only 15 of the 100 titles were discounted. And the other 85 were listed at full price. And then when you look at the Amazon list, 76 of the 100 titles were discounted. And then 24 were sold at the list price.

Starting point is 00:36:39 And he also acknowledges that physical stores have their place because sometimes you really need something now, but you'll have to pay up for it off to times relative to Amazon. And then Amazon, he says that Amazon just simply saved customers time and saved them money for those who are willing to wait two, three, four days to get their order. 2002 looked to be the first letter that he saved the financial results until the end. Sales grew by 26% to $3.9 billion. Unit sales grew 34% and free cash flow reached $135 million. In the following years, he kicked it off by stating, I quote, Long-term thinking is both a requirement and an outcome of true ownership.

Starting point is 00:37:21 Owners are different than tenants. I know of a couple who've rented their house and the family who moved in nailed their Christmas tree to the hardwood floors instead of using a tree stand. Expedient, I suppose, and admittedly, these were particularly bad tenants, but no owner would be so short-sighted. Similarly, many investors are effectively short-term tenants, turning their portfolios so quickly, they're really just renting the stocks that they temporarily, quote-unquote, own. We emphasized our long-term views in our 1997 letter to shareholders, our first as a public

Starting point is 00:37:59 company, because that approach really does drive making many concrete, non-abstract decisions. I'd like to discuss a few of these non-abstract decisions in the context of customer experience. At Amazon.com, we use the term customer experience broadly. It includes every customer-facing aspect of our business, from our product prices to our selection, from our website's user interface to how we package and ship items. The customer experience we create is by far the most important driver of our business. As we design our customer experience, we do so with long-term owners in mind. We try to make all of our customer experience decisions big and small,

Starting point is 00:38:41 in that framework. For instance, shortly after launching Amazon.com in 1994, we empowered customers to review products. While now, a routine Amazon.com practice at the time, we've received complaints from a few vendors, basically wondering if we understood our business. You make money when you sell things. Why would you allow negative reviews on your website? Speaking as a focus, group of one, I know I've sometimes changed my mind before making purchases on Amazon.com as a result of negative or lukewarm customer reviews. Though negative customer reviews cost us some sales in the short term, helping customers make better purchase decisions ultimately pays off for the company, end quote. Bezos has some great examples here of renters versus owners and short term versus long term thinking. I'm sure this ownership mentality really poured over to the people,

Starting point is 00:39:37 that were working within the company, and Jeff ensured that those who worked alongside him had significant skin in the game to ensure that they also thought like owners when they went to work within the company. As a long-term owner of Amazon shares, he's targeting capturing significant market share rather than capturing significantly high margins. In the jewelry business, for example, they would target a substantially lower margin than the industry because they believed that they could make more money selling at scale in earning their customers' trusts, and then those customers would come back to purchase time and time again. So over the short run, customers might not notice much of a difference in the pricing of one company versus another, but over the long run,

Starting point is 00:40:23 you can count on most people generally figuring that out. I think of all the physical stores you see today that are running 20%, 30%, 40% off sales all the time. And it makes you never want to really purchase anything at that store full price because you can just wait for that next sale. Amazon from the beginning has always just tried to offer the best price possible and not try and fool their customers. And speaking of being an owner, here in 2024, Bezos is no longer the CEO of the company. But when I look at their 2023 proxy statement, it shows that he still owns 1.12 million shares, and that's worth just over $200 billion, and that accounts for over 10% ownership in the company. Turning back to the 2004 letter, Bezos talked more about the most important

Starting point is 00:41:10 financial metrics. So the most important one to him is free cash flow per share. The question some people may be asking is, why does any focus on earnings or earnings per share or earnings growth? The reason is that earnings don't directly translate to cash flows. And cash, Cash flows are ultimately what shareholders want at the end of the day. You can't necessarily pay employees, reinvest in the future, pay back a dividend, or buyback shares with earnings, but you can do it with cash flow. In fact, just looking at their income statement can at times be pretty deceiving and make investors believe that shareholder value isn't being created. Bezos writes, there are, of course, other business models where earnings more closely

Starting point is 00:41:52 approximate cash flows. But one cannot assess the creation or destruction of shareholder value with certainty by looking at the income statement alone. It reminds me how a lot of companies, they put a lot of focus on EBITDA or just at EBITDA. Maybe these types of companies are ensuring you don't look at other areas of the business and try and fool you into thinking that shareholder value is being created when in fact it isn't. Just because a company has impressive EBITDA growth doesn't necessarily mean that the business is cash flow generative. Bezos actually showcases an example in that letter that shows how an income statement can show positive earnings, but from a cash flow perspective, it's deeply negative because of all the

Starting point is 00:42:37 reinvestment that's occurring to fuel that growth. So in that example, he shared, one could easily just run an IRR calculation to see that the investment opportunities within that business and then you get to see the return is actually less than the cost of capital, meaning that it actually isn't a worthwhile investment, even though the income statement might look like value is being created. And in a hypothetical example, it might be easy to run these sort of calculations, but the real world is just infinitely complex, which means it's easier to fool investors into thinking that shareholder value is being created. And that's why I think it's so important to really assess the management team and try and find those people that act honestly, ethically, and try and share what they're

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Starting point is 00:46:48 This is a paid advertisement. All right. Back to the show. So the lesson is that when you're analyzing a business, he's trying to say, don't just stop at the income statement. Understand the cash flow statement as well and even the balance sheet and understand

Starting point is 00:47:03 the cash return a company is receiving for each incremental dollar invested. So to give an example of the complexity around assessing the creation of shareholder value, consider how Amazon made a commitment to offering the lowest prices available. Mathematically, one could argue that if you want to deliver high returns to the shareholders, Amazon should be raising prices, not lowering them. But raising prices will actually boost earnings in the short term, but it could potentially

Starting point is 00:47:34 hurt earnings in the long term as customers eventually go and shop somewhere else that offers a better value proposition. So rather than focusing on some sort of models, Bezos really made a judgment call that the most value is going to be created in harnessing that trust with customers and keep them coming back time and time again. He writes, our judgment is that relentlessly returning efficiency of improvements and scale economies to customers in the form of lower prices creates a virtuous cycle that leads over the long term to a much larger dollar amount of free cash flow. and thereby to a much more valuable Amazon.com. We've made similar judgments around free Super Saver shipping and Amazon Prime, both of which are expensive in the short term and we believe important and valuable in the long term, end quote.

Starting point is 00:48:24 So the same judgment call was made when they allowed third-party sellers to offer their products on Amazon's website. Although this could, in theory, cannibalize their own retail business, they figured that if a third-party could offer a better price or a better price. product, they wanted the customer to have access to that. As a result of that decision, third-party sales reached 28% of total units sold in 2005. So shifting gears here, in this ever-fast-changing world, many people are asking themselves, what is going to change? Jeff Bezos asked himself the opposite. What is not going to change? In his 2008 letter, he shared his strong conviction that customers will

Starting point is 00:49:08 continue to value low prices, vast selection, and fast, convenient delivery. He couldn't imagine that 10 years from then, customers would want higher prices, less selection, or slower delivery. This is what helped give them the confidence in reinvesting in needs that likely weren't going to change. One of Amazon's genius moves was cloning the idea of an annual membership fee, which I believe he copied straight from Costco after discussing that idea with the CEO. Amazon Prime was launched in 2005 for $79 a year, and it gave its members unlimited Express two-day shipping free of charge and upgrades to one-day delivery for $3.99. Offering the annual membership fee helped increase customer loyalty and allowed Amazon to deliver

Starting point is 00:49:57 higher value to their most loyal customers. And I believe that at the time, Amazon offered two-day delivery to regular customers, but it costed around $9. So if Amazon Prime member were to place nine orders a year, then essentially Prime would pay for itself. So oftentimes when you shopped online, you'd pay, say, four or five dollars for shipping. You'd wait four or five days to get your order. But if you were a member of Amazon Prime, you wouldn't pay shipping and you'd get your order in two days oftentimes.

Starting point is 00:50:29 Because of this, Amazon really raised the bar for everybody on what it means to shop online. If you had an item you needed soon or you were buying a last minute gift, Amazon was a very legitimate threat to the local brick and mortar retail stores. And I think of it as building this habit of when you need something, just log on Amazon. And I think about how today I just have the Amazon app on my phone and I can get something ordered in well under 60 seconds rather than having to drive to the store, get parked, go inside. It takes 20, 30 minutes of my time to get that same item. Amazon Prime was obviously a game changer because it meant customers spent more, they purchased more frequently, and it further accelerated their flywheel. After going through their 2008 and 2009 letters,

Starting point is 00:51:19 there was no mention of the change in the stock price, and there was just total focus on the underlying business and communicating the results to shareholders. I liked this piece in the 2009 letter on focusing on what they can control. I quote, Senior leaders that are new to Amazon are often surprised by how little time we spend discussing actual financial results or debating projected financial outputs.

Starting point is 00:51:44 To be clear, we take these financial outputs seriously, but we believe that focusing our energy on the controllable inputs to our business is the most effective way to maximize financial outputs over time. Our annual goal setting process begins in the fall and concludes early in the new year after we've completed our peak holiday quarter. Our goal setting sessions are lengthy, spirited, and detail-oriented. We have a high bar for the experience our customers deserve and a sense of urgency to improve that experience. We've been using the same annual process for many years. For 2010, we have detailed

Starting point is 00:52:22 452 detailed goals with owners, deliverables, and targeted completion dates. These are not the only goals our team set for themselves, but they are the ones we feel are the most important to monitor. None of these goals are easy and many will not be achieved without invention. We reviewed the status of each of these goals several times per year among our senior leadership team and add, remove, and modify goals as we proceed, end quote. Now, 452 goals. goals. What an amazing number. In those 452 goals, the words gross profit, margin, or operating profit aren't used one time. So it points to their fundamental approach of starting with the customer and working backwards from there. This also reminds me of when I read Elon Musk's biography

Starting point is 00:53:12 by Walter Isaacson. And this theme that just kept coming up in that book was this maniacal sense of urgency. To be the best at anything, you shouldn't wait until someone else is clipping at your heels trying to take you down. Amazon was just laser focused on how they can improve the value proposition that was offered to the customer. In the 2012 letter, Bezos writes, I quote, one advantage, perhaps a somewhat subtle one, of a customer-driven focus, is that it aids a certain type of proactivity. When we're at our best, we don't wait for external pressures. We are internally driven to improve our services, adding benefits and features before we have to. We lower prices and increase value for customers before we have to. We invent before we have

Starting point is 00:54:02 to. These investments are motivated by customer focus rather than by reaction to competition. We think this approach earns more trust with customers and drives rapid improvements in customer experience, importantly, even in those areas where we are already the leader, end quote. Now, some shareholders, of course, might not like this approach of continually putting focus on the customers. You know, what if they're leaving money on the table for absolutely no reason? Some shareholders might even view Amazon as sort of a charity service that provides value to so many people while giving nothing back to shareholders in the form of profits. But Bezos saw things differently.

Starting point is 00:54:43 He saw high return on invested capital within the business, and any free cash flows would then be reinvested to further enhance the customer experience and grow the business's scale. In the 2012 letter, he shares one of my favorite quotes. As I write this, our recent stock performance has been positive, but we constantly remind ourselves of an important point, as I frequently quote famed investor Benjamin Graham and our employee All Hands meeting. In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. We don't celebrate a 10% increase in the stock price

Starting point is 00:55:18 like we celebrate excellent customer experience. We aren't 10% smarter when that happens. And conversely, we aren't 10% dumber when the stock goes the other way. We want to be weighed and we're always working to build a heavier company, end quote. It's a good reminder not to get carried away by what is happening in the short term. John Huber just shared with me on the show that most stocks are more volatile than the underlying businesses. A business might be growing by, say, 10 or 20% a year, but you can see these constant swings in the stock price, sometimes 40 or 50% swings in a single year. When a stock in our portfolio goes up by 10%, it doesn't necessarily mean we're geniuses, just like we aren't dumb just because the stock goes down by 10%.

Starting point is 00:56:05 Jumping to the 2013 letter here, this highlights many of the initiatives that were going on within the company. And it's just amazing the level of ambition this company has and taking on new projects. I'm just going to list a few here. You have Amazon Prime, Kindle, Prime Instant Video, Fire TV, Amazon Game Studios, Amazon App Store, Spoken Word Audio, Fresh Grocery, Amazon Web Services. I could go on and on as he names more here. But it's just insane the number of initiatives they have. And I could see why investors would be cautious to invest in such a business because it can just be so difficult to determine the value that's being created and spreading your attention and spreading your capital across all these bets and so many different initiatives. And as we know, many of them really didn't create

Starting point is 00:56:55 much if any shareholder value at all. And then in the 2014 letter, Bezos highlighted the three initiatives that really moved the needle for the company. So these are the marketplace, Amazon Prime and AWS. He kicked off this letter with a bit of a funny comment. I quote, a dreamy business offering has at least four characteristics. Customers love it. It can grow to a very large size. It has strong returns on capital and it's durable in time with the potential to endure for decades. When you find one of these, don't just swipe right, get married, end quote. And of all the bets that Amazon made, they settled on three that they really found delivered the most value to shareholders. So the marketplace, Amazon Prime, AWS. And he highlighted the flywheel that the

Starting point is 00:57:47 Amazon marketplace created. Customers were drawn to the vast selection, great customer experience, and the great prices on their website. So valuable real estate was essentially created because they had this large and growing customer base. Then with the release of their third-party service, other companies could go sell their products in Amazon, which made their website even more popular, produce more traffic, which would then attract even more third-party sellers. So if you're a business and your competitor is much stronger as a result because they're selling on Amazon, then it's pretty likely that you're going to need to list your product on Amazon too, because financially it just made a lot of sense. Plus, you didn't want to lose customers to a competitor because they were listed on Amazon

Starting point is 00:58:28 and you weren't. And then when you look at AWS, this is really, just a cash cow for Amazon today. AWS is essentially a cloud computing services that services startups, large enterprises, governments, and many more clients. In 2023 alone, this segment generated $90 billion in revenue. So Marketplace got Amazon dipping into the pocket of every single customer, say in the U.S. or whatever other country. And then AWS was really the segment that captured revenue from so many of these businesses,

Starting point is 00:59:01 because so many businesses depend on having high-performing IT services that comes at an affordable price. Next, I wanted to transition here to play a couple of clips from Bezos's early interviews. One of my favorite frameworks or mental models that's been shared is one by Jeff Bezos, and it's what he calls regret minimization and how he came to the decision to leave his really good Wall Street job and start Amazon. He explains it here in the interview from 2001. I went to my boss and said to him, you know, I'm going to go do this crazy thing. And I'm going to start this company selling books online.

Starting point is 00:59:47 And this is something that I already been talking to him about in a sort of more general context. But then he said, let's go on a walk. We went on a two-hour walk in Central Park and New York City. And the conclusion of that was, he said, you know, this actually sounds like a really good idea to me. But it sounds like it would be a better idea for somebody who didn't already have a good job. And he convinced me to think about it for 48 hours before making a final decision. And so I went away and was trying to find the right framework in which to make that kind of big decision. And, you know, I already talked to my wife about this and she was very supportive and said, look, you know,

Starting point is 01:00:27 you can count me in 100% whatever you want to do. You know, it's true she had married this kind of, you know, fairly stable guy and a stable career path, and now he wanted to go do this crazy thing, but she was 100% supportive. So it really was the decision that I had to make for myself. And the framework I found, which made the decision incredibly easy,

Starting point is 01:00:52 was what I called, which only a nerd would call, regret minimization framework. So I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, okay, now I'm looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have. And you know, I knew that when I was 80, I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret having wanted, you know, trying to participate in this thing called the internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed, I wouldn't regret that. But I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried.

Starting point is 01:01:31 And I knew that that would haunt me every day. And so when I thought about it that way, it was an incredibly easy decision. And I think that's a very good, if you can project yourself out to age 80 and sort of think, what will I think at that time? It gets you away from some of the daily pieces of confusion. You know, I left this Wall Street firm in the middle of the year. When you do that, you walk away from your annual bonus. And that's the kind of thing, then the short term can confuse you.

Starting point is 01:02:01 But if you think about the long term, then you can really make good life decisions that you won't regret later. Most regrets, by the way, are acts of omission and not commission. You know, I think most people, when they're 80 years old, you know, you can do bad things. You can go murder somebody, and that would be bad, and that would be an act of commission that you would regret. But most everyday ordinary non-murterers, their big regrets are omissions. So in this example, I just love how he mentioned that it helps remove you from the daily confusion or the daily noise. There's so much that we focus our attention on today that is pretty important in the short term. And it can sort of blind us to what is most important in the long term.

Starting point is 01:02:49 For example, it's very easy to put off investing or get started investing early. But when you zoom out and you look at the potential consequences of what's most important to you, maybe it's providing a good education for your kids or it's having a comfortable retirement or giving money to a certain organization. You know, it helps you zoom out and figure out what is most important and what are the really key decisions that you need to make to get what it is you want most out of life. So for the next clip here that I'm going to be transitioning to, this is related to working on things that suit your personal skill set. As being a host of the show and speaking with so many these really successful investors, time and time again, I hear that you really need to enjoy what you're doing day in and day out. Otherwise, you're just not going to be able to achieve

Starting point is 01:03:41 things at a really high level, which I suspect many of our listeners want to do. unfortunately this lesson Bezos shares is one that I learned the hard way but thankfully I eventually discovered a path that allowed me to leverage my own skill sets and interests so this clip from Bezos reminded me of that so here I'll go ahead and play it I went to Princeton primarily to because I wanted to study physics and which and was in it's such a fantastic place to study physics and And things went fairly well until I got to quantum mechanics. And I started in a, there were about 30 people in the class by that point.

Starting point is 01:04:24 And it was so hard for me. And I just remember there was a point in this where I realized, I'm never going to be a great physicist. There were three or four people in the class whose brains were so clearly wired differently to process these highly abstract concepts in, you know, so much more. I mean, I was doing well in terms of the grades I was getting, but for me, it was laborious, hard work. And for some of these truly gifted folks, it was awe-inspiring for me to watch them, because in a very easy, almost casual way, they could absorb concepts and solve problems that I would, you know, work 12 hours on. And it was a wonderful thing to behold.

Starting point is 01:05:11 At the same time, I had been studying computer science and was really finding that that was something where I was drawn to that more and more. And that turned out to be a great thing. So I found one of the great things Princeton taught me is that I'm not smart enough to be a physicist. All right, so that wraps up today's episode. If you enjoy this episode, I'd really appreciate it if you shared it with just one friend. Your supportive TIP means the world to us, so I'd really appreciate it. Also, I can't help but mention if you know of any CEOs today who write such great letters like what Bezos has written, I would personally love to check them out. As I'm reading these, I can't help but think of the

Starting point is 01:05:55 massive opportunity people had to invest in a company like this. You know, Bezos was putting these letters out to the world, but of course, there's also so much hindsight bias at place. So surely there are some other CEOs out there who are exceptional capital allocators and effectively communicate their strategy to shareholders and the competitive advantages they bring to the market. You can reach out to me on Twitter at Clay underscore Fink or shoot me an email, Clay at the investorspodcast.com. I'd love to hear from you, just hear what you thought of the episode. And if you've come across any letters nowadays, that remind you of today's episode.

Starting point is 01:06:32 All right, so thanks for tuning in. And I hope to see you again next week. Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow We Study Billionaires on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To access our show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only, before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP637: Jeff Bezos's Shareholder Letters w/ Clay Finck

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