We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - TIP834: DLocal (DLO): Multibagger Potential with Decade-Long Runway w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Episode Date: July 30, 2026

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a deep dive into DLocal (NASDAQ: DLO), the first Uruguayan unicorn and the emerging markets payment provider for companies like Amazon, Uber, Spotify, Netflix,... and many more. DLocal is trading at attractive multiples while growing payment volumes at over 70% and printing cash due to high operating leverage and a high-margin business model. That cash is given back to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. Daniel and Shawn discuss whether the high customer concentration and the declining take rate justify the cheap valuation or whether the market is not understanding the full potential of this emerging market jewel. In the end, Daniel values the business and decides whether DLO deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:03:01) How DLO became the leading player in emerging markets (00:07:14) What makes DLO’s business model stand out (00:19:08) What two megatrends DLO benefits from (00:28:18) Whether there is a race to the bottom with take rates (00:56:10) How DLO compares to Western competition (01:00:30) How DLocal distributes cash to shareholders (01:19:00) Valuation discussion of DLO (01:21:41) Whether DLO is valued attractively (01:23:19) Whether Shawn and Daniel add DLO to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠⁠. Portfolio Review ⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠. Value Investors Club Pitch on DLO. Interview with the CEO, Pedro Arnt. DLocal Investor Relations Podcast. Founder and CEO Interview by Stratechery. Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Visa,⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Amazon⁠⁠⁠, ⁠Sea Limited⁠, ⁠Mercado Libre⁠, ⁠Shopify⁠. Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠: ⁠⁠Plus500⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Netsuite⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Shopify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Plaud References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor’s Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Welcome back, folks, to The Investors Podcast, episode 834. And the last stock I pitched to you, Sean, was Pinduadio by many measures, the largest e-commerce company in the world, trading at a low single-digit earnings multiple and with about 60% of the market cap in cash. Fascinating company and opportunity. One of the most surprising things to me was the connection to Buffett and Berkshire. And today's company, I don't think, has any surprise connections to Buffett that I'm not aware of.
Starting point is 00:00:33 I wish it would, but unfortunately, I cannot offer that today. But it's yet another name with lots of growth, high margins, trading at a mid-teen multiple, so slightly more expensive, but still relatively cheap, I would say. And also with a lot of cash on the balance sheet, although it's not 60% of the market cap this time. And it's earlier in its life cycle. So we could have a company here that generates exceptional returns for maybe decades to come. That's the idea. Since 2014, with more than 200 million downloads,
Starting point is 00:01:06 we have interviewed the world's best investors, studied deeply the principles of value investing, and uncovered many compelling investment opportunities. We focus on understanding businesses and intrinsic value, investing accordingly, and sharing everything we learn with you. This show is not investment advice. It's intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are so,
Starting point is 00:01:30 their own, and they may have investments in the securities discussed. Now, for your hosts, Sean O'Malley and Daniel Manker. For those who have followed along with the Investors podcast, you might know that Daniel and Kyle alternate on pitching me their favorite new stock idea each week so we can find opportunities for our intrinsic value portfolio of stocks that we manage, which I should mention if you want to check out the portfolio, it's linked in the show. Show notes below and updated weekly. You can also get updates on our portfolio for free by signing up for our intrinsic value newsletter. And you can find that in the show notes too or just by going
Starting point is 00:02:19 to the investors podcast.com. I should mention that more often. I got a lot of questions all the time about where to actually find the portfolio that we always talk about. But there's one more thing that we could say. So maybe you want to complete our little advertising campaign here in the beginning and bring up our New York City conference. It's great that you bring it up. Yeah, we'll be hosting our second and much larger Intrinsic Value Conference in Midtown Manhattan this September on Saturday the 19th. And if you want to join us and network with a great group of investors, you can head to intrinsic valueconference.com to purchase your tickets before they sell out. And prices are going to increase over time
Starting point is 00:03:00 ahead of the event. So the sooner you purchase, the better the deal you'll get. All right. Well, Today, Daniel, it's your turn to make a pitch. And I got to say, when I look at DeLocals, headline numbers and valuation, I do see why you want to cover the company. It's growing revenue at 50% plus, yet it's trading at 15 times earnings. So that is a pretty nice setup. But before we get further into the numbers, you've got to give me some background on what we're looking at here today because I don't think this is your average payments company. No, it's not. Otherwise, I also wouldn't have bought it because I know you're not the biggest fan of payments companies. But I think there's a major difference between most companies that,
Starting point is 00:03:40 you know, immediately come to one's mind and DeLocal is not one of them. So for example, it's a B2B business. So business to business, meaning, you know, they have big merchants that they serve. And it's operating in emerging markets. But it's, you know, good to know that its customers are all companies that we know quite well. So you have these global giants like Amazon, matter, Netflix, Uber, Alibaba, also Pinduodoo, and all these sorts of companies that we know well and where you have the feeling, well, if those companies choose DeLocal as their main payment provider in that part of the world, I assume that will make it a bit more attractive for you to look at this company today. Yeah, that's probably true. You would think these companies surely must do their due diligence
Starting point is 00:04:19 when it comes to who they trust with routing billions of dollars of payments through. So that definitely gives this business some credibility. But maybe you want to begin by just giving an elevator pitch on what DeLocal does and how it got started because I was suspect, very few people in the audience are going to be familiar with the company. So the story starts in Uruguay in 2016, where a handful of people founded a company called AstroPay. And in contrast to their local, AstroPay was a consumer-facing company, so not business-to-business. And it basically offered, you know, prepaid cards and payment methods that enabled people in Latin America and also Asia, to some extent, to pay on international websites when their local cards didn't work.
Starting point is 00:05:01 So I know it's difficult for us to sort of imagine. and we talked about this before the show, but not the entire world runs on Visa and MasterCard, and they are accepted essentially anywhere in the West, but that's not necessarily true for most emerging market payments solutions. And that's sort of where the niche in the market was that has to pay and then later the local try to go after. It seems to be yet another story of emerging market founders figuring out that there's a problem for the people in their country or for the region they live in and then coming up with a solution that is at least partially inspired by the tech giants of North America and Europe,
Starting point is 00:05:38 and then adding their own innovative twist to it to complement the local economy. And so that's very similar to what we've seen with Newbank and also Mercado Libre. Yeah, I think that's a good way to describe it. So what the founders realized over time is that generally the B2B market is just much more attractive than the B2C market. You know, most commerce is obviously staying within the country, which means that the use case for Astropay wasn't that massive. And also, it's just much harder to target tens of millions of individual consumers than, you know, just a couple of dozen of these large companies that we discussed.
Starting point is 00:06:11 And that's how they realize that the bigger opportunity is probably going to be in B2B offerings. And so then they founded DeLocal. Yes, and no also, to some extent, because they did realize that the money is in the B2B offering, but DeLocal was already a part of EstroPay. So it was basically a subsidiary they were already working on. But then in, I think it was 2016, they spun it off. So, you know, probably they saw the potential for this to become a much bigger company at some point, and that's why they did it. And I think, you know, looking at it today, it's fair to say that they were right. DeLocal became the first Eurograined unicorn ever.
Starting point is 00:06:46 And perhaps I should mention that Unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at over $1 billion. I'm not sure if I needed to define this, but I can imagine there are maybe some people out there thinking of, I don't know, a mythical horse-like creature, which is, To be honest, completely fair, but not the case when I talk about unicorns here on this show. So anyway, in 2016, DeLocle was still in the very early innings, but that was sort of the starting point for the company that we look at today. And so what exactly were they doing at that time? So if it's the opposite of what AstroPay did, then I would imagine they offer some form of product that enables merchants to receive payments from customers in emerging markets
Starting point is 00:07:26 like Brazil. But how about you just walk me through it, assuming I know, nothing about this space, which is not a big assumption to make. And literally, like, I'm trying to figure out right now, let's say, what makes DeLocal different from Visa or MasterCard or even NewBank and Mercado Libre, really from a first principles perspective, what the heck does DeLocal do? Okay, okay. I think I know what you try to aim at here. So Visa and MasterCard are basically credit card dependent companies. So, you know, we have this feeling, just as I said before, that they just magically move money across the world.
Starting point is 00:08:02 But that's obviously not the case. Visa generally does not move money. At least that's not the core part of the business. So let's just say that I buy something here in Germany from a US website. I mean, I use a visa card to do so. Then the merchant's bank, so that is the bank of that US website, sends a message into Visa's network saying that, you know, Cardex, which is my card, wants to pay $100 to a company in the US.
Starting point is 00:08:28 And then Visa just looks at the car. number. It sees that it was issued by a German bank and then it would start routing that message to that specific bank in Germany. So really the way to think about it is that visa is really just a messaging network. Yeah, I would say messaging and settling because the next step would be that my German bank would check my balance and then, you know, if there's enough money in the bank account, it would say approved and then send a yes message back through the visa network to the merchant. So up until that point, it's important to understand that no money has yet been moved, but I have already purchased whatever item it was that I wanted to buy on that US website.
Starting point is 00:09:09 And then at a fixed schedule, and for example, that could be end of the day, Visa adds everything up, owed between all the banks, and then tells them who pays whom. So my German bank would then still owe $100 to the system. And then the US Merchants Bank has that $100 claim. So only then the banks move the actual funds between each other. And Visa then handles the currency conversion. So that means, you know, euros on my end and dollars on the merchant side. And they use, you know, their own rates to do that. So this is sort of where DeLocal comes in because DeLocal exists because the emerging market world doesn't use visas or MasterCard system, at least not to the same extent. So it's obviously not totally fair, but, you know, you could say that Visa and MasterCard is sort
Starting point is 00:09:52 of a legacy system of the Western world. Obviously, it's also, you know, operating in Brazil and some other places, but not to the same extent as they do in the countries where at least the both of us live. So credit cards are not used to the same extent in most of those markets. And that's not just, I should say that, because those countries are not yet there. It's also to some extent because it just skipped that part entirely. So in Brazil, for example, you have pigs. In India, you have UPI. And then in Nigeria, for example, which is also a big market for the local, you have what's called Verve. And those are all bank-to-bank transfers over payment rails, basically created by
Starting point is 00:10:25 the local central bank. And while it makes a lot of sense for locals to use them because they are, you know, fast, reliable and cheap, they are created for local transactions. So one Brazilian to another Brazilian. And there's even a legal barrier here. So where, for example, Pigs does not touch currency conversion or cross-border movement because moving Brazilian real out of Brazil and turning them into dollars is just legally a completely different activity governed by, you know, Brazil's central bank and
Starting point is 00:10:54 forrex rules and not by Pigs generally. I know we talked before about where does all of the, you know, fragmentation and complexity even comes from. It's sort of regulation like this that makes it significantly out. There's also more that we can probably get into later in the episode. And that's the value odd of DeLocal, just a very quick, high-level summary is that they're able to help navigate the complexity of the international financial system and completing transactions for different businesses. So I guess we should think of Visa and MasterCard and credit card issuers as trying to expand into emerging markets. And then the question is, by doing so, are they threats to delocal? I guess I repeat myself, but I have to say yes and no.
Starting point is 00:11:40 So technically they are a threat because there's nothing that stops them from getting into that market in theory in the emerging markets that also delocal operates in. So if you just think about New Bank and Macaulibre, which are two companies that we own in our portfolio, they offer credit cards. And their credit cards, for example, run on visa and master card rate. So they are certainly in those parts of the world too. However, and that's sort of the main problem that the local addresses, a U.S. or European merchant trying to run a Latin American visa card through a Western bank will mostly suffer for a massive transaction decline rate. So sometimes we are talking up to 50 plus percent just due to strict anti-fraud blocks. And that's actually one of the transactions
Starting point is 00:12:21 that made DeLocals founder, Sebastian Kanovich, realized that there's a problem with the payment system. So even if you have a company like Visa or MasterCat present, you still need DeLocal because these problems still exist. And there's also another mitigating factor, which is that these alternative payment methods, like PICs, for example, in Brazil, are growing even faster than credit cards. So merchants still benefit from, you know, a cost of course. company that offers one solution for all of these different ways of paying. And that's sort of what DeLocal offers to you. Right? You can pay via credit card. You can pay via cash. You can pay via QR codes. And DeLocal has all of that in one product. How about we say that I'm Spotify and I want to get paid customers
Starting point is 00:13:05 in Brazil and Argentina and Ecuador and so on. What is DeLocal actually selling me? They sell you what's called an API. So it's basically one piece of software that enables Spotify on this example, you, to get paid in all of the countries that it wants to operate in. So before DeLocal, what Spotify would have done is they basically need to set up a local payment processor and processes generally in every country that they operate in it. We know from your episode on Spotify that global expansion, especially into these emerging markets, is incredibly important for them, especially over the next decade.
Starting point is 00:13:40 But without DeLocal, they would need to integrate with so many different local acquirers in each market. You've got to have local licenses. You've got to manage dozens of, you know, different tax rules and different banking systems and all of that stuff. And in the end, you're still doing that for a part of the market that is, you know, 5% of revenue or less for most of these major U.S. companies right now. So it's one of those things that you know you need to be part of that market, but it's also not worth it to spend all of that money and especially the time to get into those markets. So that's sort of the main problem that DeLocal is trying to solve for you. And I know this all still sounds kind of abstract, but you have to imagine what goes into the fact
Starting point is 00:14:19 that DeLocal can actually offer just this one API. So they have more than 20 offices worldwide because you need physical presence, boots on the ground in those countries to have a chance to actually get a local license, which once again is, you know, mostly difficult to do in payments because there's so much regulation. And even then, it can take many years until you actually get that license. So in total, Delocal has more than 1,000 employees, and all of those are local teams in, you know, the parts of the world where DeLocal operates. So it's just a cost, you know, that is not worth it to DeLocal's customers itself, especially today. It's not necessarily about the money.
Starting point is 00:14:54 I think it's mostly about the time and the headaches that you have to think about that. If you're Amazon, you're just going to pay a couple of basis points more to use DeLocal instead of setting up local teams in markets where you basically have, you know, basis points in terms of your overall revenue. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet. You're not alone. And plus 500 futures is a great place to start. The futures markets are moving fast, and with plus 500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and more.
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Starting point is 00:18:19 The interesting thing about the investment case for DeLocal, I think, is that you're looking at this, is that you're essentially participating in two megatrends. And so on the one hand, you're benefiting from the future growth of emerging markets and people becoming wealthier there. And then on the other hand, you benefit from all the major global tech giants trying to expand their market share in these very fast-growing regions of the world. That's essentially the major thesis. And it's also what DeLocal CEO, Petroand, is pointing out as a major advantage of DeLocal.
Starting point is 00:18:52 And Petroaunt has, maybe you know that already, been a Macado-Libre CFO for 12 years, and he actually worked at that company for 25 years. So I think it's fair to say that he's, you know, why not officially being a founder, very much part of the team that grew McCarley, but from zero to, you know, 100 billion plus dollars in market cap. So you really got, you know, a CEO that probably had one of the best jobs in South American tech and commerce, you know, going to DeLocal, choosing it over Melly, which to me, as someone who really likes Melly as a company, as you would know, is a huge bonus point
Starting point is 00:19:25 for DeLocal as a company. And Petro basically said that, you know, he wouldn't have left if he didn't believe Delocal is one of the most exciting place in the South American market today and actually found a clip of him giving some more detail on the opportunity and his motivation to join the company as CEO. So I think we should just listen to him explain it. One of the things I was thinking a lot about is, you know, can I leverage what I saw at Mercado Libre, an early stage technology trend across the emerging world and somehow find something similar to that at an earlier stage and be able to ride a similar secular wave, right?
Starting point is 00:20:03 And so I thought, you know, payments as a clear example, were seeing that in Mercado Pago with the emergence of all the neobanks in Latam. But then when I actually started to understand what DeLocal was about, I realized there was a whole second leg to this, which is one of the most difficult things about picking emerging market winners
Starting point is 00:20:24 is that it's very hard to know who will be the next new bank or the next mess. and who will go by the wayside. I think, you know, death rate is even higher. But DeLocal was a different take on riding the digital transformation and revolution of the emerging world, which it's probably the single most precise proxy for how the magnificent seven and most of the world's largest and most successful digital companies are doing across Latam, across Africa, across the Middle East, across Asia.
Starting point is 00:20:57 because at the end of the day, our business today grows if the businesses of our large digital global clients grow in these markets. And so when I realized that there was almost like a double layer of making a bet on emerging market digital transformation, which was the secular trend itself, but the secular trend being able to ride the success of the companies you knew were going to be successful, right, the Microsofts, the Netflix, the Amazon's, the Spotify's, the Googles of the world. And so that was really one of these. I've been saying a lot, be careful what you throw out into the universe because sometimes
Starting point is 00:21:38 it throws something back at you that you can't say no to. And that was exactly the case. So I know you're not a big fan of payment companies, obviously, but I feel like this value proposition, especially those megatrans, are quite a good reason to like DeLocal or at least look into it in a bit more detail, especially if, you know, it's trading at what I think can be considered a very fair price. Yeah, I don't have a great history with loving payments companies, but the setup is as compelling, maybe, as any payments company I've seen, which is a big compliment. I guess what I'd be interested in knowing is which markets de-local
Starting point is 00:22:14 as most of its business in particular. So I like the idea of having this diversified player in emerging markets. So that if something happens in one market, there's still plenty of business and the others. And it's very unlikely that the emerging market growth trend will end for global tech businesses overall. But obviously, there is a risk in any particular country. So Venezuela comes to mine, for example. That's a good point. And I got to admit, concentration is one of the problems with the local to some extent, because both in terms of the markets and the customers, it is a quite concentrated company. Latin America, for example, accounts for about 80% of total revenue right now. So Africa and Asia
Starting point is 00:22:56 are still relatively small markets. And within Latin America, you obviously have the big three. So you have Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico that make up about half of the total company's revenue and about 80% of the revenue made or generated in Latin American. I guess we'll get to some of the geographic dynamics later. But maybe I should first talk a bit more about business dynamics in general. So one thing worth mentioning is the difference between what's called pay-in and what's called pay-out. So pay-in basically means the merchant is getting money paid by its customers. So, for example, it's Netflix, in Brazil, you know, you subscribe to it and then you pay Netflix. That is called pay-in. So that's what, you know, the vast majority of De-locals volume is, about 70% today. And
Starting point is 00:23:41 then you also have payout, which is sort of the reverse. So a merchant paying money out to people in these markets. And a good example for that is one of our favorite companies, Uber. And so you can imagine it's sort of as if Uber has a driver in Buenos Aires, who needs to get paid in pesos into a local bank account, then delocal is a company that handles that for Uber. The power business has actually been built just to support some of the big right-hailing companies that had problems with, you know, this sort of payment in the past. So now payout covers, you know, drivers, contractors, marketplace sellers, freelancers, and I think also to some extent, remittance recipients, but it's still only 30% of the overall volume of the company. Well, it's good you bring up Uber because I'm actually working
Starting point is 00:24:25 on a refreshed deep dive into Uber that will probably be published in maybe a few weeks or a month or two, but still, it's a business I'm really excited to dig back into since we first really looked at it on the podcast a year ago. And it looks like ride hailing is already the fourth biggest vertical by payment volume for DeLocal. So we should probably thank DeLocal for doing such a great job at supporting Uber's international operations. And it's generally impressive to me to see the growth rates behind all their verticals, right?
Starting point is 00:24:58 I mean, e-commerce is the biggest already, and it's still almost tripled in the last two years. On-demand delivery is the second biggest vertical. And that has more than Forex, and then remittances are becoming an increasingly bigger part of the pie as well. well. Yeah, one thing that you will see is that, you know, the TPV growth, the total payment volume is just amazing. And again, it's sort of this double engine of Latin America and emerging markets generally growing at a fast pace, especially the tech companies. And then just, you know, the expansion of these big US companies grabbing share in those markets and becoming customers
Starting point is 00:25:32 of DeLocal. And obviously the downside of having all of these big tech companies as your customer is that there are very few companies that can match that scale. So DeLocal has quite a lot of customer concentration. While they have officially about 760 enterprise customers in total, just the top 10 make up 62% of revenue. So that's a lot. And two individual merchants, and they didn't displace, which they were, but they made up 10% of the entire company's revenue back in 2024. I remember that because that was about the first time that I looked at the company. And I wouldn't be too confident that this has materially changed since then, although they don't give us any numbers on just the top two customers anymore, because it's not.
Starting point is 00:26:13 the best thing for the business. So obviously this introduces some risk because of one of those top 10 merchants decides to bring payments in-house or just route volume to a competitor. DeLocal would take a mess of it, especially in the short term. And one of the key metrics to sort of keep an eye out for monitoring this risk is net revenue retention. So basically it measures how much more revenue you get in any given year from the same merchants you had last year. So in 2023, for example, that number was 150%. And that basically means that the existing book blew by half again on its own. No customer basically leaving Delocal, but they have a lot more volume that they sort of ship through the Delocal rails.
Starting point is 00:26:55 And in 2024, it dropped to 130%, which sort of gave you some pause. You know, whenever that happens, it could be a sign that either a large merchant chose a competitor for some of their volume or it could have many other reasons. So perhaps, you know, it was just a Forrex impact, which obviously, because you have a lot of times in emerging markets, but you never really know. And that's sort of, you know, the unsettling part whenever you see it did. The good news, though, is that in 2025, it's now back at 145 percent. And it's been actually above 140 percent for four straight quarters into 2026. So I feel pretty good about, you know, the staying power of the customers. I'd say it's probably something you just have to live with if you're going to invest in a company
Starting point is 00:27:33 like DeLocal. It'll certainly be a bumpy ride. And besides all the macro factors, it's also only natural for a big merchant like Amazon to want to diversify their volumes over time. And as long as DeLocal offers the best service, they will retain the majority of volume from the largest and most important merchants. That's sort of the framework I would use. And so even without diversification from larger merchants, DeLocal is already paying the price of working with the big boys by having to offer discounts. So this will probably be one of the tougher discussion points today, but we do need to talk about the take rate. And so one of my big problems with payments is, I don't see how it's not a race to the bottom in the long run. I feel like structurally, there's no physical
Starting point is 00:28:22 reason why there should be so many fees between transacting from one country to another. And so really competing on price seems sort of inevitable to me because payment processing should ultimately be a commodity. And so take rates should decline over time due to competition pressuring a company like delocals margins. And that's just how I think of it as sort of a pessimist on payments. But as proof of that, if you look at the numbers, delocals take rate did go down from 2.9% at a high in 2020 to just 0.9%. today. So less than 1%. It's sort of brutal if you just look at the chart. And it's probably the most controversial topic whenever it comes to any payment
Starting point is 00:29:08 company. And I think it's generally interesting just because I don't know the answer. I talked to a mastermind member just two days ago and he's also invested through his fund in DeLocal. And I have this bad tendency of always, you know, trying to poke holes into the thesis of the companies I like most. And it's not the difficult if it's a payment company. Because as you said, you know, the take-out is declining. And obviously the CEO, Petra-on, he's talking for quite a while now about how. that's part of the strategy. And basically what's happening here is they do not get pressured by competition. What happens is that they want to onboard as much volume as possible through those
Starting point is 00:29:39 big merchants and they give them discounts because they want to get as much volume as possible, which is why you see these tremendous growth rates in TPV. And you could make an argument that what matters are the absolute numbers right now. So that means is DeLocal making more money than a year ago? And they are making a lot more money than a year ago. And that happens because you have operating leverage, but also you have so much more payment volume going through your system that, you know, a decline in the take rate doesn't matter that much. But obviously, the bear case would be that at some point, TPV growth will slow down. And, you know, if there's more competition, if you can't upper your take rate again, you just left with, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:14 a low take rate and significantly less growth in the TPV. I think we'll probably touch on that quite often today. Again, what I can tell you is that there are companies that I believe will struggle more than others whenever it comes to the take rate, especially in the future. And I actually believe that B2B focused companies might struggle less. I mean, you know, there's a B2C company that we looked at, which is PayPal about a couple of months ago. And the environment for those companies just gets increasingly dire, especially in the market like the US where there's a lot of competition. And I don't know, I think delivering value at its services, which is sort of what every CEO would tell you what to do that can drive out margins in the long term, but it's also very
Starting point is 00:30:52 difficult to actually have the customer base, both in the B2B business, but also in the B2C business, to actually find products where you can have a high margin, and it is a value at for your customers. And while I say this, I should know that take rates and margins are two different things. I think that's very important to differentiate. So the take rate is calculated by dividing gross profit by TPV, so the total payment volume.
Starting point is 00:31:14 So you could also calculate it with revenue, which in some industries make sense, but in payments, a huge chunk of your revenue is just the cost that you basically pass through the system. So, you know, the money that you owe to the local acquirer or maybe the cart network or the processor and all of those different parties. So I think it's important to make the distinction for the margins because payment businesses like Delocal still have quite a lot of operating leverage,
Starting point is 00:31:38 even when the take rate falls. So the way to think about this is that TPV, the total payment volume, will always grow the most, and then gross profit will grow less because of the take rate decline. But, and that's sort of the important point here, net profits will grow faster than gross profits because of the operations. because of the operating leverage. And that's sort of what you need to understand to still figure out why I believe payments businesses
Starting point is 00:32:01 in the long term can still deliver a lot of value. Perhaps again, we should just listen to Petraan, the CEO, explaining how he thinks about the issue and why he believes DeLocal is not in a race to the bottom. And we're extremely convinced that we're managing the whole take rate issue the right way. And let me separate take rate from margin, right? first thing is there's a lot of operational leverage in this business going forward now that we're
Starting point is 00:32:28 exiting our investment cycle. And there's more to come. So gross profit, revenue, TPV should all be able to grow more than OPEC as we leave the investment cycle further and further back. Now, there is a monetization issue, which is for every dollar we process, you know, we're making less and less sense. But some of that is by strategic design. We're optimizing for, for TPV growth, we're telling the commercial teams to be both aggressive in the tiering that they offer merchants so that merchants really drive more traffic to us to gain those volume discounts, but we're also trying to make sure that we're not losing deals on price. And the logic is in large part driven by why I think that this is not a race to zero
Starting point is 00:33:17 as the bears will try to position it, right? I'd rather have the merchant relationship be processing his payments, adding value for him, because I trust that there are a couple of things that will begin to change going forward that certainly will allow take rates to bottom, but I can even theorize why they can raise if I have those merchant relationships, right? So let me walk you through some of those. But just to be clear. So the strategy is bring the merchants through the door, build the trust,
Starting point is 00:33:50 build the relationship, help them grow their emerging market businesses, even if that takes lower prices now, because that will give you the volume platform to then work on the monetization levers. And so after listening to that, what are the points that Pedro was teasing in that clip about the specific reasons for why he doesn't fear the take rate decline? There are three major points that he sort of wants to address. And the first one is simply consolidation. So eventually, Pedro thinks that the market will consolidate, which would mean that DeLocal can transition from being price taker to what he calls a price influencer. You wouldn't go as far as saying a price setter, which basically means, you know, you can up the tapegrade because you decide what price this should be. But if they are only, you know, four to five companies, you're in sort of an oligopoly, it is easier to increase the pricing as if, you know, there are 20 companies that you compete with.
Starting point is 00:34:45 So this sort of goes back to my B2C versus B2B point, where, you know, I think we can say that the B2C payment space has gone from being a very consolidated space back of the day into the other direction with, you know, more and more players coming in. And in part, that's because every app nowadays sort of has the ambition to expand into different verticals and build a loyal customer base. And obviously payments is a great vertical to do that, especially after looking at almost 90 companies for this show, I think you and I both looked at companies that sort of started a payments some where it just felt like, it doesn't make any sense at first glance, but it's just, you know,
Starting point is 00:35:19 a great business to be in for companies, at least in the short term. And I think it's slightly different in the B2B world, although that obviously can also be a brutal place. But to stay with PayPal as an example, their B2B solution, Braintree, had the exact same takeaway problems and the product had very few differentiating factors. So this might be, and I hope it is different for the local. And one of the reasons might be that Pedro's second point, which is that more scale and also to some and the evolution of AI become more opportunity for differentiation and also fragmentation, which basically means there's a lot of friction whenever you have payments in between different countries. And I think what he means is that sort of all of this new technology will further
Starting point is 00:35:59 accelerate growth, but also fragmentation of emerging markets, which makes the local even more important. So, for example, the idea would be that AI makes it possible for emerging markets that are not yet at Brazil's or Mexico's level of payments penetration to set up their own payment innovations, which would, as you said, be a net advantage for DeLocal because it creates even more markets for them to go into. Is that sort of the right way to think about it? Yeah, although I'd say that it's sort of just, you know, the nature of the business opportunity for DeLocal. And I don't see any competitive advantage coming from that, not in the same way that perhaps Pedro-Aunt does. And if anything, I think the more attractive,
Starting point is 00:36:41 the market opportunity becomes probably, you know, that's how capitalism work, the more competitors will try to get in. But then you obviously have the scale benefit of DeLocal that we talked about. So this sort of goes back, at least in my mind, to Nick Sleap and his model of scale economy is shared, which is that DeLocal can pass on the lower cost to serve that comes from those volume discounts that it gives to its merchants. So that's a similar thing to what Wise, which is another company that we have in our portfolio, is doing as well, sort of lowering the take rate as part of the value proposition to its users. And if DeLocal can lower its own input costs faster than it lowers the merchant's pricing,
Starting point is 00:37:20 well, then the net tape rate would stabilize or even expand over time while the growth's take rate, so the sticker price that basically the merchant has to pay, would keep falling. The problem with this, obviously, is that there is a floor to, you know, cost to serve savings, just as there's a ceiling for TPV growth. And you can neither save on costs eternally nor outgrow the falling tape rate. and that's in the end, the Boge take. So ultimately, it does come down to the value-added services you can deliver, or at least the value-add generally.
Starting point is 00:37:50 And in this case, that's most likely a conversion uplift. If you can sustainably demonstrate that conversion rates are higher with your service, then that is obviously going to be valuable to merchants that are routing billions of dollars through your payment rails. So what products does de-local offers? to guarantee this conversion uplift. One example is what it's called smart pigs or smart APMs. And what that does is pretty vital to how these subscription businesses generally work.
Starting point is 00:38:23 So one difference between the payment infrastructure and the West, which is obviously based on credit cards and the payment rails in markets like Brazil, pigs, for example, is that credit cards can be saved as so-called tokens. So when you subscribe to Netflix and give it your credit card details, then Netflix will store your card and charge it every single month. And obviously it doesn't save your credit card number, but it creates a token that tells the system to charge this exact credit card every single month. And systems like Pigs in Brazil or even, you know, UPI in India, they don't work that way.
Starting point is 00:38:56 So with those systems, you need the customer to initiate the purchase every single time. So in theory, Netflix couldn't just charge your bank account every single month. It would need to ask you every single time before it does it. And as you can imagine, that is pretty bad for customer retention. If every single time you're being asked, hey, do you actually want to pay Netflix and you're feeling like, I haven't watched anything in two months. So, nope, maybe I'll just pause and not pay this month. So Delocal's Smart Picks product is a software layer that basically sits on top of Pigs
Starting point is 00:39:26 and gives it the ability to charge a consumer automatically and repeatedly. So basically the same way that is stored card would. And without, you know, the consumer having to approve each transaction manually. and they did the same conceptual thing for other alternative payment methods as well, which is, you know, where they call it smart APMs and not only smart pigs. And that's sort of, you know, one of the major value ads that the delocal drives, especially for companies like Spotify and Netflix. Good business 101 is to try and remove friction for customer payments as much as possible. You don't want it to be difficult for your customers to pay you. And so there is a huge difference in the earnings quality of a subscription business that can automatically charge.
Starting point is 00:40:07 customers each month versus a business that needs to consult with the customer each time at charge arises. Can you imagine if you had a gym membership and they called you every month of, hey, would you want to keep paying 20 bucks for this membership? Can you confirm the payment? That would be terrible because you'd get a lot of cancellations, a lot of people realizing, yeah, you know, I'm not going to actually work out anymore. I'm giving up on the dream. I haven't been in six months. And so anyways, looking at delocals and numbers, the conversion uplift is pretty significant. Even if you use credit cards, local processing increases the conversion rate meaningfully. If you compare that to international card transactions,
Starting point is 00:40:51 Delocal's local service shows a 20 percentage point increase, which is very, very substantial. Another product that helps with conversion is delocal's so-called smart routing system. So in any given market, there are usually multiple possible path to basically process a payment. So several different local acquirers or maybe banks, the local is connected to, and not all of them perform equally well. So one acquirer might approve 90% of a certain car type, while another one only approves 80%. And that basically varies by many factors. It could be just the time of the day.
Starting point is 00:41:27 It could be the car type. It could be transaction sizes and dozens of other factors. So smart routing basically means the delocal system dynamically pay. the best path for each individual transaction to maximize the odds of approval. And even when a payment fails on the first try, it's often for, you know, a recoverable reason. So, for example, it was a bank glitch or maybe just a timing issue. And then delocal system is sort of built in a way to recognize which failures are worth retrying. So how to modify the next attempts. And then they execute on it. So affirm, in case that's a company that you know,
Starting point is 00:42:02 basically has a good system for this as well. And it's in part where that company, has some of the highest margins in payments. It never occurred to me that there was such an issue with routing payments to the best path, right? From a first principles perspective, I want to ask you, why do payments even fail in the first place? And then why is doing something like changing the pathway? Help with that.
Starting point is 00:42:25 What's actually going on there? You might guess that, you know, the main problem is just a cross-border problem. So for ordinary domestic card payments, only about one to five percent of payments failed. So it's, you know, reasonable. But cross-border payment failure rates can easily go up to, you know, 15, 20, even 25%. So the main cause for the problem is that banks only have limited details on those transactions. So they only see, you know, basic details like car details, balance, amount, location, all those sort of things that don't really tell you if, you know, the merchant, the acquire, whatever, is actually trustworthy. And then, you know, the fraud detection quickly
Starting point is 00:43:02 jumps here because obviously it's generally a good thing if you stop one payment too much instead of one too few. But on the other hand, it's obviously a big problem if you're a merchant. So about 35% of cardholders are likely to abandon a merchant after experiencing a decline generally. Probably that data is not really true for company sex Spotify and Netflix because I as a consumer know it's a legitimate company, but it still shows you that once a payment fails, it's a huge upset for the merchant. And what DeLocal does is figure out. the cause for that problem and then counter it. So let's assume the problem was a timeout.
Starting point is 00:43:37 Then DeLocals system recognized that and then tries again in an hour without anyone having to do anything. And if maybe the card used for the subscription was old and is no longer active, then DeLocal automatically uses the new one, which, for example, you use on your Spotify subscription. So then it knows there's a new card and now it will try that one for Netflix. And if a phone acquirer is the problem, so, you know, for example, Spotify's bank that sends the payment request, then delocal routes it through a local acquirer instead, which it partners with. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
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Starting point is 00:47:16 Plus 500. It's trading with a plus. All right. Back to the show. And the last product is yet another buy now, pay later B&PL product, right? I feel like there's no payment company in 2026 that does not offer a B&PL solution, although it seems that DLocals is very different from the usual ones because they're not a lender in itself. The credit risk still sits with specialized B&PL lending partners. So it's not on their balance sheet.
Starting point is 00:47:52 Delocal is only responsible for the connected technology that plugs those BNPL lenders into its merchant's checkouts. Right. So you can basically think of it as an aggregator that gives a merchant access to many BNPL providers across emerging markets, basically via DeLocal's single existing integration. And to provide that technological overlay, DeL then takes the share of the revenue that the B&L partners earn.
Starting point is 00:48:19 So that's sort of how they make money on that intermediate transaction. So it's not an interest income and DeLocal does not need to absorb any potential credit losses either. So, you know, if you think about companies like Melly or like NewBank, there's no credit risk in this payments company. And so when you think about all these products, do any of them stand out as being uncopyable or unclonable? I mean, how hard is it to mimic what they do? I assume the answer is no. And to be completely honest, I don't think the mode is in the products or the differentiation, you know. Smart APM is nice and it's very valuable to merchants.
Starting point is 00:48:52 But in Brazil, for example, the government is already rolling out what's called Pigs Automatico, which enables recurring subscription payments that weren't possible without the local before. So, you know, over time, there will be innovation that probably, in that sort of the bear case, makes it easier to have payments in emerging markets. And there's still some data advantage to the extent that, you know, smart pigs is bundled with success rate intelligence, but it's not really a mode, I would say, you know, it's part of it works slightly better, but you just got to figure out 10 years from now, how much better is it actually and how much can you charge for that? So the key advantages that I see are scale,
Starting point is 00:49:28 regulation, and fragmentation. So delocal operates in more than 60 markets, has over 600 local payment integrations and 38 regulatory licenses and a bit more than it doesn't still in process. And as I said in the beginning, it can easily take years until you get those licenses. So if you have 38 of them and 12 to 50 in outstanding, it will take a lot of time. It will take a lot of time until any competitor can copy that. So when you think about, you know, the smart writing feature, for example, that only works with tons of data and many counterparties to switch to. So delocal processors, you know, three and a half billion pay in transactions every single
Starting point is 00:50:02 year across, you know, 40 plus, 50 plus markets. And it's an advantage that just compounds over time, you know, you have better routing. And better routing leads to winning more merchants, which leads to more volume. And then in the end, that gives delocal better data, which, again, you know, the dual improves routing. How do you think about the risk that these big merchants with very deep pockets will just build payment solutions themselves, bring everything in-house to save this money they would otherwise be paying to delocal? I think I was more worried about that when I first looked at DeLocal some years ago. And I don't look at it differently today because of anything
Starting point is 00:50:38 that DeLocal did. It's mostly that since then I've looked at, again, close to 90 businesses for this show, most of them with you. And a considerable number of them are actually DeLocal. customers. And if that taught me anything, it's that opportunity costs everywhere. And I just don't see Amazon on Netflix spending resources. And again, that's money and time on figuring out payment methods in the most fragmented part of the world. So, you know, Pedroin actually said in the late Sterling's call that merchants tend to work even closer together with DeLocal when the business grows. You know, you could look at that differently. You could say, well, the bigger the business gets, the more important it gets, the more sense it makes for them to bring those things in-house. But that's
Starting point is 00:51:18 not what you see. So it used to be a merchant coming with, you know, a narrow problem like, help me fix pigs in Brazil and how I can get money out of that country to now where merchants are basically treating emerging market payments as a core strategic priority across, you know, the entire global south. And that's not just Brazil, it's not just Mexico. It's also the other 50 plus markets that, you know, de-local operates in. So you could argue that, well, what happens if only Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina matter in 10 years time? The other side of it is, how do you not know that there are 10 African countries that will be significantly bigger and more important in 20, 30 years time than they are today. I mean, I just think of these stories like Singapore,
Starting point is 00:51:56 and obviously it's a totally different part of the world and totally different starting position, but what they achieved in just a couple of decades, if you see anything like that and just two or three of the markets in the entire world that DeLocal operates in, you would have huge potential in the long run. So these companies that DeLocal works with, they sort of have an incentive of for DeLocal to not become a monopoly. And it sort of reminds me of our Copart episode a while back. There was this dynamic where insurance companies would split their volumes between copart and Copart's main competitor, even if Copart was the better operator, because they didn't want Copart to become a monopoly with just too much pricing power. That's a really good, a really good
Starting point is 00:52:39 analogy, actually. I think the major difference that I could think of is the insurance market, so Copa's customer base was a pretty consolidated space or is a pretty consolidated space. And so it didn't take many companies to agree on that approach. And the wider the customer base, the more difficult that would be. So, you know, it is a potential risk in the future. But I don't think it's the same as with Copart, at least not 100%. So not so much from a perspective of, you know, the customer as a group, but more so that a customer individually feels like he's in a better negotiating position when he can diversify,
Starting point is 00:53:15 volume. That's sort of the problem for Delocal. And again, DeLocals' customer base is highly concentrated. So one other risk that I see is that the fragmentation argument just gets weaker over time and we discuss this. So, you know, when there are only four markets and they are all that matter to Netflix, to Spotify, to Amazon, obviously it will get harder for DeLocal to justify, you know, the fragmentation argument that they currently have. And basically telling Amazon, well, you have to pay the prices because we do not only offer Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, but also for the other markets. If Amazon doesn't care about that, they won't pay up. So we basically know this phenomenon from Uber, you know, to stay with some analogies on the companies that we own in our portfolio.
Starting point is 00:53:53 So, you know, the top 10 cities it operates in are basically responsible for a very significant chunk of the overall business. So, you know, if that happens, again, to the most important markets in South America, that's also a problem that I see for the local. And maybe before we move on, another difference is that the local has taken the opposite approach up until now. So they didn't try to flex their muscle and sort of get the highest margin deals, they prioritize volume and onboarding these large merchants, which is why I mentioned that before their take rate had the shop decline. So this scale economy's shared model also lowers, in my opinion, the likelihood of customers being afraid of price gorging at any point than either, you know, ship volume
Starting point is 00:54:33 somewhere else or do it in-house. And so what would be your take on the big Western players, Stripe, Aidian, and also PayPal, and so on? How do they, shape up. So the way it currently works is that merchants work with Stripe and Attyen as well as delocal. So, you know, the Western players take the Western market and then DeLocal handles everything related to the emerging markets. And in the end, it really comes down to once again, I have to say that like 10 times today fragmentation. So if the markets stay as fragmented as they are today, makes very little sense for Stripe or Atien to invest a lot of money there compared to projects in their home markets. I mean, there's a lot of competition. So, you know,
Starting point is 00:55:14 you have a competitor at scale with DeLocal, which never makes it easier to get into a new market. And you also have to explain to investors why margins will be structurally lower for many, many years because of this investment cycle. And when you're a company that makes significantly higher margins than, you know, the average business, investors don't like when that changes. And, you know, it's sort of different when DeLocal does it, because, you know, that stock has been absolutely hammered over the last five years and we'll probably get into why that happened, but it's currently trading at 15 times earnings.
Starting point is 00:55:41 and Adyton is still a company that's trading at 25 earning. So my argument here is just that they have a bit more to lose in terms of the market sentiment. So to an extent, I mean, it comes back to opportunity costs. It's opportunity costs, yeah. And I think it's also the general setup of these companies. So what companies like Adion or Stribe have done is they basically built their entire tech stack on their own and focus very heavily on vertical integration, which, you know, in part, because many of their competitors have become older and less vertically integrated
Starting point is 00:56:11 over time through M&A, I mean, you know, PayPal lost to them because they had so many battles to fight that they just sort of, you know, lost them all because they didn't know where to focus on. But the reason Stryb and Adion could do that is that they are, you know, first and foremost merchant acquirers. So, you know, the payment infrastructure is already there. And everything is, you know, dominated by credit card rails. And that's obviously different in DeLocals markets. And because of that, DeLocal is also built differently. So it's much more of a horizontal player, where Netflix comes around and plugs in, and then it's about getting rid of all of the complexity,
Starting point is 00:56:44 not necessarily through your own tech stack, but by just optimizing how to use what you have at hand in those markets. And that could be Pigs in Brazil, could be UPI in India, many, many other potential methods as well. So I guess the point being, it's a very different value proposition. And if I can just bring up another analogy here, it's similar to how Amazon would need to invest tens of billions of dollars to compete with Mercado-Libre in Brazil or their main market.
Starting point is 00:57:08 because, you know, e-commerce is not the same everywhere. And the customer needs a different, and that's not the game that Amazon is used to playing. And it looks like the DeLocal Aidian story is actually quite similar to that dynamic. I looked it up before our recording here, and it looks like Aiden has been operating in Brazil for about a decade, which is actually longer than de-local. So we could argue that they just haven't invested enough money in the market, and maybe it wasn't a priority. That's sort of the same argument that we've seen with Amazon investing in Brazil relative to Mercado Libre, that they just haven't put in enough money to really prioritize
Starting point is 00:57:49 winning. And so ultimately, Melly has pretty much won Brazil over Amazon and DeLocal won it over Audion. And so it might just be their understanding of the market and their product offering being better suited for that market. It's certainly not the first time we've seen. seen that. It is a common theme from many of the companies that we've studied that have expanded globally. We shouldn't double down too much on the narrative, though, because in the end, we still need those Western merchants to win market share and expand into the markets that Delocles is actually operating. And so not just the competitors in the payment space, we also need Amazon to still be in Brazil and not totally get lost there. I'm not concerned overall that companies like Spotify or Netflix
Starting point is 00:58:34 or Amazon will take a lot of share and developing markets in the next few decades. But when I think about simplifying payments, which is to some extent the DeLocal bare thesis, then I also think of stablecoins. So to what extent do you feel concerned that stablecoins could be bad for business for DeLocal? Well, DeLocal launched a product they call stable coins full in April of this year. So like most other payments companies as well, you know, everybody is a stable coin product by now. And they offer anything from, you know, on RAM to off RAM to settlement and so on. And what makes this especially interesting for the local is that two thirds of all stable coins are held in emerging markets, basically as a hatch against the local currency falling apart. And Argentina alone did something like $34 billion of stable coin transactions in a single year, most of it cross-border to get around capital controls.
Starting point is 00:59:31 And the threat for DeLocal is that either companies will use stable coins themselves to settle transactions, or maybe that DeLocal is doing so, but at significantly lower margins with the current high Forrex spreads, basically not existing anymore. And you might remember my last mile argument from the Remedley episode, we did a while back where, you know, in emerging markets, people don't save or invest money in crypto the same way that people in the West do, where people, you know, invest there, especially if they have spare money that they don't need right now. And in emerging markets,
Starting point is 01:00:00 it's pretty different where people need that money to constantly pay for things. So someone in Argentina doesn't want a USDC balance sitting in a wallet, they need pesos in their bank account with the tax handle,
Starting point is 01:00:13 with all of the compliance done, and then converting that Stapagre into local fiat and actually pushing it into the local way. So, you know, be that. Picks in Brazil, a bank account in, you know, Buenos Aires. All of that is what DeLocal is needed for.
Starting point is 01:00:27 So Stapbercoin is basically, make the settlement cheaper, but you still need the top layer. So everything that actually turns the stable coin into local currency for the customer, which in turn actually means it just reduces delocal's cost of settling a payment. Right. Although I should say that, you know, this is my working theory and that makes more sense to me, but perhaps we'll look at it 10 years from now and it worked out differently. And I know that maybe you would take the other side of that bad. Okay, well, before we get to the financials, the incentives and all that kind of stuff, there is one other parallel that DeLocal has with one of the companies that we covered just
Starting point is 01:01:06 recently. And so just like Caspi, DeLocal was the target of a short report a couple of years ago. So anything we should know about that? Yeah, I think I might just have, you know, the wrong experiences, the short seller reports, because I feel like most of them just try to find the smallest things and then, you know, sort of create this narrative in order to make a quick profit. This one, I should say, worked out pretty well because the stock dropped 50% in a single day after the report dropped. So to be fair, I think that generally shorting is an important function of the market when done right. And in this case, the short report came from a pretty reputable name, which is Muddy Waters. And it wasn't 2022.
Starting point is 01:01:44 We all know what happened in 2022, where the market tanked, were a lot of way overvalued companies. and, you know, if you are a short seller, you mostly pull out a short thesis before. So there were a lot of those flooding the market. And yet, I think it's fair to say that by now, there just wasn't much to it, if anything, actually. I mean, the claims were that, you know, TPV was overstated, that the take rate was too high to be realistic. Back then, was still high, not 0.9%. And the founders, you know, mixed up business account with the merchant's money. And also, and that's sort of the last point, that insiders sold about $1 billion in stock
Starting point is 01:02:16 right after the lockup period that followed the IPO back in 2021. So you can already see that some claims are more severe than others. But I think back in 2021 again, most stocks, they traded at absurd valuations. So, you know, setting some stock after the lockup period ended, when DeLocal was trading at a multiple of 350, makes a lot of sense, if you ask me. You know, if I was the CEO, I might also sell at least some shares. But, you know, the other claims that we have seen that are more severe, they seem to be Al right false. I mean, DeLocals bought rent an independent review with outside investigators and on
Starting point is 01:02:51 these specific client funds allegations. And the review basically verified that, you know, merchant cash and corporate cash set in separate accounts and matched, you know, the bank statements. And one thing that I should also add, and that's pretty astonishing, not a single merchant left back then. So they stock to up 50%. You know, the short report was just there. Not a single merchant left the company. Wow, that's not bad. And so looking at the take rate and how that's developed, afterward. I guess I wouldn't be too concerned that there's anything wrong with that either. But jokes aside, I think you mentioned that muddy waters mainly compared delocals take rate to stripe and therefore argued delocals take rate was unreasonably high. But with delocal operating
Starting point is 01:03:33 in markets like Argentina, Nigeria, and Egypt with FX conversion and installments layered in, that is just a structurally higher take rate business, right? And so after all, it, three years have passed, TPV went from $10 billion to $45 billion. They do generate very real cash flow. They pay dividends and they're buying back stock. So things are definitely not really sketchy at all and certainly not as sketchy as the short report would have made it seem. I got to admit, though, that, you know, it seemed like the founders did make some beginners mistakes that sort of, I would say invited this sort of attention. And while the short report definitely lacked substance. There was also a federal lawsuit regarding the local not adequately
Starting point is 01:04:18 disclosing is Argentina for its control risk. And it appears that the Argentina operation has been somewhat of a mess since the beginning, especially in terms of how they communicated it. And I would say the positive effect of that is, you know, that nowadays you have a different CEO. And I don't think it's a coincidence that they took a CFO in Pedro, to become the new CEO. But I would actually, you know, I like that. Having Pedro as CEO is, I think the best that could have happen to this company. It sounds like we got a real key man here. Pedro aren't as a vital part of the thesis, would you say? He is, but I want to mention it's not just because he was at Macado Lieber. I do think it is a positive, right? I mean, he looks like he's been there for 24 years. So he basically
Starting point is 01:04:59 saw it go from a small startup to one of the biggest companies in Latin America. And as the CFO, he played a significant role in that. And he also studied at Oxford and worked for Bain Consulting. So So when you take all of that together, he does seem like the type of guy that you want to have as a CEO for a company that you're going to invest in. Especially because it was so clear that he only signed up for this because he believed in the vision of the company. He could have easily, you know, said what was one of the best positions, you know, where you can work in Latin America. And he also owns about 0.8% of the company in stock at DeLocal. So this might not sound like much in the beginning, but again, he's not part of the founding team. And he only joined three and a half years ago.
Starting point is 01:05:40 So generally, the insider ownership in this company is massive. It's about 33% of the company is owned by the founder and the management team. So there's a lot of skin in the game. And how does that incentive system work? Well, unfortunately, we don't know a lot about the incentive system because while the local is operationally headquartered in Eurogray, it's officially incorporated in the Cayman Islands. And that basically means it's legally exempt from, you know, the paid disclosures of a U.S. company
Starting point is 01:06:07 or, you know, that a U.S. company usually has to publish. So I can't really tell you what Petro Arnd is making, not exactly what his incentive program looks like. But what we have is sort of a blended number for the entire management team. So that was about $20 million back in 2024, which was up from about $5 million just two years earlier. And in terms of stock and options, DeLocal hands out three kinds of stocks. So it's options, restricted stock, and then performance units. And the mix, I got to say, doesn't look too inspiring. I mean, the majority of the bonus is paid and restricted.
Starting point is 01:06:40 stock for which the management team doesn't need to do anything beyond just sticking around. And it's one of those things that you often point out as something that you don't like to see. And then, you know, the performance-based stock options, they're just a very small part of the overall payout. So since we don't know anyone's individual contract, we still might assume that all of the performance-based options sit with Pedro Rant, but obviously that would be speculation and I think it's highly unlikely. I do want to quickly get back to Argentina.
Starting point is 01:07:07 when you say that things have been messy there, what exactly does that mean? And how does the macro there impact DeLocals business? Because in the end, Argentina is about 20% of Latam revenue. So it is not a small portion. Argentina is a complicated market. So for a long time, it was one of DeLocals's most profitable markets, which to some extent was because of the complexity. And then for many years, Argentina had something called CIPO, which means trap or clamp, if you were translate. and it's basically a regulation about currency controls or exchange rates and all of that sort of stuff. So one difficult thing was basically getting money out of the country. And if you're a payments company collecting pesos inside Argentina, but you owe a global
Starting point is 01:07:51 merchant dollars outside of Argentina, what that means you have to get that money out. And because it was difficult, DeLocal could charge high fees to merchants for its service of making it possible to be able to transact internationally. Right, but due to just the fast pace of change in regulations like this, it could have been, you know, an advantage one year and then it's a disadvantage in the other year. So, you know, things change quickly. And if you look at the last couple of years and even just quarters, you will see just how volatile the margin of the Argentina business has actually been.
Starting point is 01:08:25 You know, things have settled, at least to some extent, because of the policy changes that melee push through over time. So he basically got rid of all of the currency controls, which, you know, of course is good, but it's also to some extent bad for DeLocal because that's where they made their money. And on one hand, the margin is now lower than it is before. On the other, you could also argue, you know, there's less volatility and also less political risk. So I see that as, you know, a margin headwin, but also a quality of earnings upgrade. So when I have to summarize the case up until now, you would basically buy DeLocal to take advantage of two major tailwinds, the growth and digitalization of emerging markets, particularly Latam, and then just global tech.
Starting point is 01:09:05 giants expanding into those markets and increasing their market share and further reliance on DeLocal. And so DLocal is the best way to play that trend because it has the most scale in those markets, the best relationships, the tech. And it's not as vertically integrated as Western competitors, which is usually seen as a negative. But in this geography, it actually can be a benefit because it helps with a more dynamic company and helps them to juggle the regulatory challenges in those geographies.
Starting point is 01:09:38 I think that's pretty on point. And I think the local will remain a highly volatile stock for a while. And in the end, the only thing that matters to me is sort of figuring it out whether anything could reasonably disrupt the local status as sort of the main beneficiary of these megatrans. And I'm quite certain there will be competition over time, as there always is. And some customers will probably shift part of the volume to that competition. to sort of diversify, you know, the volume.
Starting point is 01:10:05 And while that can create volatility in the short term, I also believe that, you know, the data advantages, as well as also the regulatory advantage of, you know, having experience in all of those markets. I don't want to say that's a moat generally, but I do think it's too much to completely disrupt them at this point. And I should say that whenever volatility causes the stock to decline, delocal conducts strategic share repurchases,
Starting point is 01:10:27 which is something that I know you and I can appreciate. strategic buybacks are something that always are going to win some points with me, but it does look like the last meaningful share repurchases happened in 20203 and 2024. So it has been a few years. Is there a new buyback program looming? Well, before I answer this, I want to quickly add that if the thesis eventually turns out to be wrong, my suspicion is that an inability to monetize would be the reason not necessarily lost volume. But getting back to capital allocation, As you said, you know, the last meaningful buybacks were in 2023 and 24, which was about $100 million in each year.
Starting point is 01:11:06 And earlier this year, the board authorized another $300 million buyback program. So I think it was in March when the stock still traded closer to $3 billion. And now it's about $4 billion, but that's still, you know, 7 to 8% of the company really purchased in the next two to three years. And with the volatility of the local, it might be more than that if they just wait for the right moments and then buy the stock. So that's one part. And then also beyond the buybacks, you are being paid through a dividend, which is about
Starting point is 01:11:32 30% of free cash flow resulting in a yield of about 3 to 4%. To be fair, I mean, DeLocal is a relatively asset-like business. And what that means is there aren't that many reinvestment opportunities. They don't need that many assets to support what they do. So it can make sense to pay a dividend, although I would rather see that being used for strategic buybacks as well if the stock is as cheap as it seems. I would also favor buybacks, but I guess part of the reason for the dividends is that the founders are getting paid that way. I mean, they have sort of a low salary, and I don't think they plan to sell any stock, which is also a positive.
Starting point is 01:12:12 So they also want to signal to investors, hey, we are confident in, you know, the ability to generate cash flow and that's why we're paying a dividend. Plus, you know, we want to get paid. What about the M&A front? Do they have any history of making acquisitions? Not really. I mean, a DeLocal recently wanted by Arza Finance, AZAA, which is a Kenya-based and Africa-focused cross-border payments provider that had been valued at roughly $150 million in a 2024 finding round. But the deal sort of took longer than they initially planned and then Illocal eventually only acquired one asset or sort of technology from that company for about $23 million. So beyond that case, I think, you know, there's pretty much no M&A history or even ambition. now. So if I had to summarize, you have a capitalized business, highly profitable, paying back shareholders through buybacks and dividends. And I think there are worse things than that, right? M&A does, of course, and have the reputation, and rightfully so, that it destroys value. Most acquisitions have not been good for shareholders. And serial acquires like Constellation
Starting point is 01:13:16 Software and Berkshire are, of course, in a league of their own. But whenever your ordinary tech or payment company is going for M&A, it's probably not going to work out well. So, yeah, I am glad that it's not a game that DeLocal is keen on playing. But how do you think about things on the stock-based compensation front? Are the buybacks actually reducing the share count materially or is DeLocal issuing so many shares that it basically offsets the buybacks that they're doing? So I could tell you that a stock-based comp is only 0.2% of revenue, which sounds very good at first, but that's not how you should look at it, because in this business, as I mentioned before,
Starting point is 01:13:58 gross profit is much more important than revenue. And SBC measured against gross profit, isn't outrageously high either, but it's about 5%. So it's certainly not immaterial. And in the last five years, the share count has been more or less flat, but that obviously should change now with the new purchase program. All right. Well, how about we do some digging in the weeds here and looking at the financials and then talking valuation? What are the metrics and the numbers that matter for DeLocal that investors should be
Starting point is 01:14:26 aware of, and that you would look at to keep track of whether DeLocal is on the right path? Because this does seem to be a long-term thesis that will want to be monitoring. Yeah, I mean, it certainly is. And I think the first thing to look at is obviously TPV, total payment volume. Last year, TPV was about $40 billion, so up 60% year over year. And since 2019, the K-Gar has actually been almost 80%. And just in the last few quarters, growth has accelerated again after a week quarter in 2024. So you see the right trend going forward. And as I said earlier, you know, TPV will always grow faster than, for example, gross profit, simply due to the take rate dynamic where, you know, the take rate declines. So the gross profit grows more slowly
Starting point is 01:15:10 than the underlying TPV, generally delocals, I think you can sort of explain them as looking like the letter of a V. So you know that it goes upwards and then it goes downwards. And the part of the V that drops is sort of the dynamic that I described, where TPV is growing the fastest, then gross profit is going slower. But then you get to the operating leverage side of things. So while gross profit goes slower than TPV, the underlying profits grow faster than gross profits.
Starting point is 01:15:38 that's sort of the upward trend of the other side of the V. I don't know if that helped, but maybe, you know, was an analogy that at least some of you guys resonated with. And I would say going to the metrics, a good one to track the operating leverage is the ratio of EBIT, so, you know, the earnings before interest and taxes, to gross profit. Because what that measures is basically of every dollar of gross profit,
Starting point is 01:16:00 the de-local keeps how much survives operating expenses and drops actually down toward the bottom. I mean, when the current investments are glanced, this metric should show a clear upward trend, which has already started. What about metrics regarding the customer base? I mean, it would still make me somewhat nervous to know that DeLocal is so dependent on a handful of just its biggest customers and a few different markets. So are there any trends on that end that you would want to follow with the hope of seeing more diversification? DeLocal discloses two metrics for its top 50 merchants that are in. interesting to check in that regard. And that's the average number of countries served per merchant and then also the average number of payment methods served per merchant. So countries per merchant
Starting point is 01:16:46 grew by 40 plus percent year over year and the payment methods per merchant grew about 50%. So that's not yet diversification away from the top merchants, but it does show that, you know, the top existing merchants integrate deeper into the ecosystem over time. And, you know, that's also why net revenue retention stays as high as it currently is. And in terms of geography, you already see a slow trend toward more diversification. I mean, in 2023, for example, a couple of years back, the top three markets made up 55% revenue. Now it's 50%.
Starting point is 01:17:17 You know, it's slight improvement, I would say, on that front. And obviously, that's not because, you know, the other markets are shrinking, but because the other markets are outgrowing the top three. Okay. I think it's that time where you tell us what the valuation is for this business and how to think about valuing it and whether it should be in addition to our intrinsic value portfolio. Well, today, instead of forecasting revenue, we care about TPV and the net take rate for
Starting point is 01:17:47 the top of our model. So I have TPV growing at 38%, so close to 40% through 2028 and then decelerating to 20% after that for the next two to three years. And then DeLocals own guidance, you know, for 2026, is still 60% TPV growth. And considering past growth rates and the still low penetration overall, I do think I haircuted here quite a bit
Starting point is 01:18:10 and we could see more growth than that. And I have the tapegrade decrease going on for a while, although I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sort of stabilization in the next few years and perhaps even quarters, although I know that you would probably look at that a bit more skeptically. But some of the calls and interviews
Starting point is 01:18:24 that I listened to from Pedro Ant made it seem like he thinks bottom should be coming soon. But, you know, I'm a skeptic too, So I still have the take rate decreasing to slightly below 0.7% within the next five years. And these assumptions are basically a continuation of that V dynamic that we just discussed, right? I mean, TPV grows fastest, but the take rate declines and thus gross profit grows slower. And so I see that Delocal is guiding for about 30% gross profit growth for 2026.
Starting point is 01:18:57 and then you're assuming a gross profit Kager compound annual growth rate of 19 to 20% looking forward. Right. And that basically starts the other side of the V to stay with that example, where the investment cycle is more or less done, or at least it has peaked. So we should see operating leverage push the EBITR and also the EBIT margins up, resulting obviously in more profits so that net income is compounding at least a percentage point or two faster than gross profit. it. Honestly, a surprisingly part of the return will likely also come from, you know, dividends and the buybacks. So that's the sort of special thing about DeLocal. It's not only growing fast,
Starting point is 01:19:34 but it's also a cash printing machine. And if it keeps the 30% pay ratio, which is planned, I should say, and keeps buying back shares at a similar pace to what has been announced recently, you could easily have, you know, $700 to $800 million of buybacks over just the next five years. And given that, I expect quite a volatile stock in DeLocals management is good at allocating capital. and had just proven that in the past, I think they will execute those buybacks at pretty good prices. So I assume the share decline rate of about two and a half percent per year, which would somewhat be $17 to $18 per share. So if we take all that together and we try to be conservative by expecting a low teens exit multiple, and that's what I'm saying in your model right now, where does that leave us?
Starting point is 01:20:18 The expected return under these assumptions and with a margin of safety of about 20 percent is about 22 percent from today's levels. That's the case in the base case, I should say. So I also model a bear and a ball case, as we always do. I won't go through them here because I think that would just be a bit too many numbers for today. But I can tell you that in the bear case, when which growth is still quite reasonable, but the margins start declining instead of growing, the stock can quickly half from today's prices. And so what would happen is you basically lose the V shape. And instead of EBITDA and profit margins outgrowing gross profit, they are. are going to be pressured, just like gross profit is. And so it's a scenario where basically you don't
Starting point is 01:21:00 have any operating leverage kick in. Which, to be fair, is sort of antithetical, because we already see the operating leverage kick in right now. And with that scenario, again, where does leave us overall with DeLocal? As I said earlier, I own DeLocal in my personal portfolio, and I believe my average cost base there is close to $10. And right now it's trading, you know, about $14 to $15. but I still consider it quite cheap. So just due to its volatility and for mowing it for a while, I know there's a good chance that there will be plenty of opportunities to probably also buy it after some form of bad news or fear in the market.
Starting point is 01:21:38 So I guess my idea would be to buy a small position today, also because we lack cash, and then buy more on weakness. It's probably no secret that I have hesitations about payment businesses, but the metrics you walk through sound very promising. And I can't see why the overall story is compelling. too in terms of emerging markets growth and international companies expanding their market share in emerging markets, which would likely lead to more alliance on delocal. And so if you have it in your personal portfolio, Daniel, that I know you've done a ton of homework on the company to be
Starting point is 01:22:13 recommending it. And so we've talked about having a goal of owning 15 to 20 companies in the portfolio. And at the moment, we have exactly 15. So I don't necessarily feel like we have to add more businesses just for the sake of diversification. But I also don't think that we're at such a large number of companies to keep track of that we can't do so responsibly between me, you, and our colleague Kyle. And if we make it a 2% position with Wise, also being a 2% position, my question for you is whether you think that's enough exposure to attractively valued payment companies, sort of ignoring whatever biases I may bring to the table. rate because I know you like these businesses a lot and I know Kyle does too and 4% overall
Starting point is 01:23:01 portfolio exposure is not a massive amount. And I know you and Kyle, for example, both like wise. And like I said, I'm pretty sure Kyle is going to be on board with DeLocal. And I guess the question is if you didn't have my hesitations to hold you back, would you actually argue for making it an even bigger position? In the long term, I might see. us establishing a larger position than 2%. Yes, but I think right now I feel very good about that sizing. Again, I sort of have my own biases going
Starting point is 01:23:32 into this, especially because of my lower cost base and my own portfolio, I probably have an anchoring bias, which I sort of struggle with quite often. So yeah, I feel like 2% now. And if we actually do see the stock going down significantly at any point without changes in the business, I think we can, you know,
Starting point is 01:23:48 buy another 2% in that position. But we also want to be mindful of our exposure to emerging markets, which is not too small if we think about Macarola Libre, if we think about NewBank and then also DeLocal. So, yeah, I think I'm pretty fine with that. Anything you want to add before I send us into the weekend with a quote by Sir John Templeton? No, I don't think so. We'll make it a small position. I'll keep doing homework to try to wrap my head around it and maybe we'll come back and make it a bigger position. But yeah, we can leave it there. All right. Then it's Sir John
Starting point is 01:24:20 temple in time and he said, I never ask if the market is going to go up or down because I don't know and besides, it doesn't matter. I search Nation of the Nation for stocks asking, where's the one that is lowest price in relation to what I believe it's worth?
Starting point is 01:24:36 So for 40 years of experience have taught me you can make money without ever knowing which way the market is going. And I actually got to say I feel pretty good about the fact that by now, we also search Nation off the nation here on the show to find the best stocks and perhaps also the next one will be an international one. We don't know yet, but you will find out pretty soon. So see you then.
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