What A Day - Explaining Iowa's Raucous Caucus

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

The Iowa Caucuses are back! Trump is the clear favorite, but there’s a tense battle for second place that is all going to play out on Monday. We dive into what the caucuses even are, how they work, and what their role is in this year’s presidential election.Then, Crooked’s very own Tommy Vietor joins the show after being on the ground in Iowa himself. He walks us through what it was like sneaking into Republican campaign events, and what voters said.Show Notes:What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcastFollow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

it's friday january 12th i'm priyanka arabindi and i'm juanita toliver and this is what a day what a month what a year what whatever you want to call us yeah what a year feels right the year just started and we're focused on one story and one story only, because it's that time, y'all. The 2024 election has officially begun because the Iowa circus, I mean caucus, is back. We win the Iowa caucus, I will get elected president. If you're a first-time caucus goer, you can learn how to caucus, and I'm going to have to learn too, by the way. I haven't done this before.

Iowa starts it. You change personalities, and by the time it gets to South Carolina, it gets bigger going into Super Tuesday. We are on track to deliver a shock to the system. Everybody should know that we are still in this race. Anybody thinks I'm getting out of this race, they're crazy. The lies, the lies, the lies. None of those people are continuing after Iowa.

An incredible montage. Wow. Shout out to our producer for that one. That was some great work. Yeah, the music made me want to do a little square dance moment. But OK, this weekend is the final high pressure stretch for candidates to get FaceTime with voters. And let's be honest, Iowa doesn't reflect the country at all. I think it's 94 percent white, but it gets so much attention each election year because it's first and it sometimes makes or breaks campaigns. So we've got you covered on what you need to know before

Iowans cast their votes on Monday for which Republican they want to run against Joe Biden, which we know it's going to be Trump. But what and who poses a real threat to his nomination, if any? Later on, Pod Save America and Pod Save the World co-host Tommy Vitor is going to stop by to tell us what he saw up close when he was on the ground in Iowa last week. The Trump people actively denied us access to all of their events. We snuck into Eric Trump's town hall meeting anyway. But first, we're going to break down how exactly the roughly 2 million voters in Iowa can be so pivotal to the outcome of our elections.

Four years can feel like a century these days. I mean... Yeah, which is why it's absolutely crazy to think that the last Iowa caucuses took place in February 2020 in a world pre-COVID. What a different life. But Juanita, can you give us a refresher on how these caucuses work and why they are important in the bigger picture of American politics? Yeah, so caucuses aren't like regular primary elections. It's more involved than just heading to a polling place to cast your ballot, mainly because it takes more time out of

your day, which is pretty crappy for people with jobs and children and other responsibilities. Right. But it's a chance for voters to engage with candidates and other voters and really make a case for what is important to them. The Iowa caucuses don't always guarantee a party's nominee, but they can give candidates a huge boost and weed out the weaker ones. Remember that Barack Obama came through with that early win in Iowa in 2008 over Hillary Clinton, and a lot of people credit that win to really propelling him forward to secure the presidency. And in New Hampshire, if you give me the same chance that Iowa did tonight, I will be that president for America. God, I miss him. What a hopeful sound that was. I know Iowa is going to play out a little bit differently for Republicans versus Democrats. Can you explain, you know,

why that is, what that means exactly? Yeah, if you're a Republican voter who wants to participate in the caucus, you got to free up your upcoming Monday and be there in person at a local school, library or other caucus spot. In the room, there's a review of administrative information about the party, debates about which issues are important to voters. And then at the end, people write down their preferred presidential candidate. These votes are tallied and the results help determine how many of Iowa's 40 national convention delegates each candidate receives. Obviously, the more delegates, the better the candidate shot is. Right. Now, the Democrats process doesn't look the same.

Before this year, caucusing Democrats gathered to discuss issues and candidates like the Republicans. But to show which candidate they support, they then physically move to join preference groups. Right. OK. Picture your high school library. For example, if you support Joe Biden, go stand by the bookshelves. If you're supporting Bernie Sanders, stand in the group by the door. Right.

People would then shift around if a candidate isn't viable. But that won't be happening this year in Iowa. Dems don't have to go in person. Instead, they just have to send mail-in ballots between Monday and March 5th. Wow. Okay. Yeah, a big shift in the practice here. And they really lucked out because for Republicans, in-person attendance might be low this year. And not just because some Republicans don't see a point in caucusing with Trump so far ahead of the rest of the field. There's a winter storm that is bringing absolutely freezing temperatures to

Iowa. We're talking up to a foot of snow that is expected through Tuesday, plus a low of minus 13 degrees and a high of four degrees. Let's be real. Nothing would get me out of the house in that weather or anything close to it. Yeah, let alone this cast of characters. I'm sorry. The last thing I'm leaving, I'm actually staying in my home. So thank you so much for that context, Juanita. Now we're going to shift on to what the deal is with this year's caucuses. Monday is nothing too special for Iowa Democrats. Their primary isn't until March 5th, as we just said. The first time Democrats anywhere in the country go to the polls will actually be in New Hampshire on January 23rd. So Iowa is really the Republican show this year. What do we have to expect from them? Yeah. So just to address the elephant in the room. Former President

Trump is dominating the polls ahead of the Iowa caucuses. Five thirty eight polling average shows him more than 30 points ahead of his rivals. 30 points. The more traditional approach leading up to the Iowa caucus is pulling a full Grassley. That's the term to describe when a presidential candidate visits all 99 counties of Iowa before the caucuses named for Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley. He was known to do that all-county tour every year. And yeah, Trump is not doing that. Mainly because he doesn't need to. But Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis both did, while Nikki Haley focused on big population centers. Now that we've gotten the rundown on why we should care about Iowa,

it's time to talk with someone who has really seen all of this close-up. We chat with Tommy Vitor about his time in Iowa last week for Pod Save America's limited series On the Ground. Episodes one and two are out right now in your Pod Save America feeds. We'll talk about what he saw, what he snuck into, and what he thought about the state in this election and what he regrets. God, it's so much Pinot Grigio. That's after some ads and we're back as promised we are sitting down with our in-house republican voter impersonator tommy vitor tomm, you play the part really well. Thank you. Welcome back to What A Day. I've had this haircut for 43 years now. We call it the

Mitt Romney and it gets you in a lot of places. Serving you well. So Tommy, you just spent the last several days on the ground in Iowa getting a real feel for the energy right now leading up to January 15th. We heard that Crooked Media did not exactly get the royal treatment from some of the candidates' PR teams. What was your experience there like? Yeah, it was a real range. So the Trump people actively denied us access to all of their events. We snuck into Eric Trump's town hall meeting anyway, but they did not want us there. Hot ticket. The DeSantis people never responded to our emails. They wouldn't credential us, but we just walked in anyway because, frankly,

they needed to put some butts in seats. But they, Kramaswamy's folks, not only let us into their events, but they gave us an interview with him. So they definitely were by far the most open campaign in terms of access besides maybe Asa Hutchins' campaign, which again, you know, like we went to Asa Hutchins' town hall meeting. Surprising. Good news, it was at a brewery. Bad news for him, there were 20 people there and 15 of them were college kids from California. So it's not going great for Asa.

Got it. His staff was lovely and nice. Yeah, I feel like the more access you got, the more likely they are to drop out tomorrow, you know? Exactly right. So obviously Trump has an advantage here. The polls, the powerful endorsements, plus all the voter data he has from his previous campaigns in Iowa from 2016 and 2020. But for his opponents, this was really their first time hitting the ground in Iowa.

But Trump didn't really make a big effort to show up in the state. During a recent event while he was busy having dinner in Mar-a-Lago, he had his son Eric phone conference him in. Take a listen. Say hi to the entire crowd. Well, I just want to thank everybody. This is so pathetic. Always remember, we got the farmers of Iowa $28 billion. I can't think about Joe Biden doing that. Way to phone an end.

Quite literally. Okay, so what was that all about? Did people in the audience care that Trump wasn't actually there in Iowa? No, so this was an event featuring Eric Trump in a little town just north of Des Moines. The folks who were there seemed to be mostly Trump diehards and fans. And so I think they didn't mind at all that Donald Trump wasn't there in person. In fact, they were absolutely thrilled when Eric called him on the phone and patched him into this event. I got to tell you guys, brings me to pleasure to say this, but Eric Trump was called him on the phone and patched him into this event. I got to tell you guys, brings me to pleasure to say this, but Eric Trump was very good on the stump.

What? That's what I heard. I don't buy that. His speech resonated in the room. The phone call he made to his father not only got the crowd jacked up, but also he did it. It was a broader narrative of my father always picked up when he called him. He made it a story about his dad's character and the way he raised them.

And there were lots of oohs and aahs. I don't believe that for a minute. Trump did not raise his own children. Let's establish that fact. I know. It was such bullshit, but it really worked well. He did a good job. Well, I guess you have to pick up the phone

if you're not present, I suppose. Anyways, you spoke also with Dave Peterson, a political scientist at Iowa State University. His team partnered with Civics and surveyed over a thousand Iowans this past October. They found that 95 percent of those likely caucus goers voted for Trump in 2020. For this year, though, Dave's team has Trump pulling in the low to mid 50s. Here's a clip. We asked people who aren't supporting Trump, why not? And they gave us essentially two sets of answers. One set of answer was I'm not supporting

Trump because of Donald Trump, because of January 6th, because of the indictments. Those people are backing Nikki Haley. The DeSantis people say it's time for a change or I just like another candidate better. Right. So they're not supporting Trump, but they're not. It's sort of incidental to what Trump has done. So, Tommy, what is Dave's insight there tell you about Trump's opponents in 2024? Basically, what Dave's insight tells me is that Trump's opponents are battling it out to reach Iowa caucus goers who are either never Trump and are turned off by him or who like Trump, but think maybe he has electability problems and they want a more sure thing to take on Joe Biden. The challenge there is that that's a small slice of the overall pie.

Right. The majority of Iowa caucus goers love Donald Trump. And even if he's not their first choice, he's often their second choice. So even if a Ron DeSantis or a Vivek Ramaswamy or Nikki Haley drop out of the race, a lot of those votes will go to Trump. So just they're all fighting over a pretty narrow slice of the pie. That's a great point about second choices, because I think people are getting real hype about Nikki Haley's opportunity or prospects if DeSantis drops out. And the reality is DeSantis voters have the backup as Donald Trump, not Nikki Haley. Listen, I think most of us would agree that Nikki Haley is a far more reasonable, rational choice.

But yeah, I mean, a lot of folks who like her would be happy supporting Donald Trump, too. Yeah. So you spoke to two voters, a father and son in Cumming, Iowa. What they said about who they're supporting is pretty interesting. Their opinions are very, very different. Take a listen to Curtis Johnson and then his father, Jay. Sanchez has better policy, a lot better things, but I just don't think he's as charismatic as Trump. And Trump can just come to a place like Iowa and just really, really rile it up. And here it just seemed it was kind of just a slow talk and slow burner.

And he has good things to say, but it's just, it's not as captivating as Trump can be. You know, Trump has just viral moments every time he's anywhere. And I just don't get the same. A little low energy, huh? Yep. But I'll tell you, I'm a lifelong Republican. I've seen Ronald Reagan in the bushes. I will never vote for Donald Trump.

I haven't the last two times, and I won't this time. What did he do that turned you off? I will never do business with or vote with somebody I don't trust. I mean, trust being front and center there. What do you think this dynamic between this dad and his son says about larger tensions among Republicans and maybe the decisive independent voters right now? Yeah. So, I mean, I think what this really said to me, and this might have been the most honest answer we heard from anybody during the time we were out there because we were standing outside of one of Ron DeSantis's events. It was unbelievably boring and terrible. And like, frankly, that was a theme for

a lot of the DeSantis events. The guy's got no riz, as Priyanka might say. His events are boring. Nobody is having a good time. No one is laughing. No one is smiling. And if you watch a Donald Trump event, the man is spewing hateful shit for half of them. But people are having a blast. They're laughing. He's telling stories. He's telling jokes. He's swearing. They love it.

It's fun to go to a Trump event. It's fun to be part of that NAGA community. There's some sort of sense of community, frankly, around it. Tommy, that's going to get cut in a way that you don't love. I know. I know. I know. part of that NAGA community. There's some sort of sense of community, frankly, around it. Tommy, that's going to get cut in a way that you don't love. I know. I know. Cut that along with the Eric Trump compliments. But like, DeSantis events are a slog. They're low energy. He's hectoring. He's annoying. Like, it's just not a movement that anyone wants to be a part of, including this kid. Yeah. I mean, it is easy to say that Iowa is just a big media frenzy,

only gets its attention because they're first on the calendar. I mean, candidates and donors still pouring a bunch of money into this caucus, even though we know that what this is shaping up to be is a race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But still, if we have to pick, you know, something valuable that we learned here, some insight we are taking away from this. What is that to you? The early state primary process is flawed, but it is incredibly valuable because it allows voters to get up close to these candidates, to ask them questions, to shake their hands, to see if they know what they're talking about, to put them on the spot. And I really, I mean, it's like I worked in Iowa for a year for Barack Obama. So I obviously have rose colored glasses when I think about that experience, because we won and it

really catapulted him to the presidency. But I do think that whichever state goes first, there's value in forcing candidates to do retail politics and take questions from the media and from the voters themselves. What I wonder is after this Iowa caucus process in New Hampshire and South Carolina, frankly, where Donald Trump barely showed up, he spent more time in courtrooms than, you know, church basements taking questions. By choice. By choice. I wonder if we're just at a place where because of social media, because of partisan news sources, and just sort of information silos silos that we are moving past an era where retail politics matters and you have to drive around these early states and meet people

and kind of play the game. You know, Donald Trump is showing us that you can bypass the process and really, you know, thumb your nose at it. I mean, he ran around insulting Kim Reynolds, the very popular Republican governor of Iowa half the time. And he still seems like he's going to get 50% of the vote. So I'm not sure that bodes well for the future of our political process for Iowa or any early state. Yeah. All right. Finally, tell us the most important thing from your road trip. What's the best song to listen to when you're driving through the beautiful countryside of Iowa? So we couldn't figure out how to get our Bluetooth to hook up to the car. We didn't even try.

I'm not going to lie to you. We didn't even try. Wow. But here's something really fun. Caroline Dunphy on our team here, who made all the really great videos that have been up on the Crooked Media Instagram, recorded every single song she heard at every event and is making a Spotify playlist of all Republican Iowa caucus songs.

So stay tuned for that. Republican hype songs. Republican. All right. A lot of Toby Keith. A lot of. I believe it. Very on the nose America themed stuff where people don't get the second layer of meaning or the irony of some of the lyrics.

But come on. It's good stuff. Dunphy is a genius. She was making all it's good stuff. Dunphy's a genius. She was making all kinds of fun stuff. Can't wait to listen to your series and perhaps even more excited for this playlist. But Tommy, thank you so much for joining us and for bringing all of us down. This has been great. Thank you both for having me on and for talking about the show. I really appreciate it. It's fun to make, kind of. Big asterisk. You can listen to more Iowa Insight

on Pod Save America's limited series, On the Ground. Make sure you catch up and listen to part one, because part two drops today in your Pod Save America feeds. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, drink a glass of some Pinot Grigio, and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just Tommy's Republican cosplay tips, What Today is also a nightly newsletter.

Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I'm Juanita Tolliver. I'm Priyanka Arabindi. And let the 2024 chaos begin. We sound excited about that. I don't feel excited about it. I'm not excited,

but I do expect it to end quickly. By the end of Q1, the Republican primary will be over, y'all. It'll be over. All right. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Bill Lance.

Our show's producer is Itzy Kitania. Raven Yamamoto and Natalie Bettendorf are our associate producers. Special thanks to Natalie for producing today's episode. And our showrunner is Leo Duran. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka.