What A Day - Florida Voters Concerned With Pocketbooks, Not Party

Episode Date: October 19, 2026

Nate Silver, statistician and host of Crooked Media's Still Counting, made a bold prediction about the 2026 Senate Midterm races today. Silver argues that Democrats have a 75% chance of winning the Senate, which feels VERY optimistic. Jane talks to Erinn Haines, co-host of Crooked's Long Play, who has been traveling through the South to talk to candidates and voters ahead of the election about whether Democrats can flip some historically red seats.Show Notes: Check out Long Play – crooked.com/podcast-series/longplay/ Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail]

We have a cycle where voters are really interested in hearing what candidates want to do from them. Not necessarily who these candidates are, but what are your policies and how are you going to help me? That's the thing that has so many people, I think, open to doing something that maybe they have never done before. It's Monday, October 19th. I'm Jane Koston, and this is what a day. United States Treasury Secretary Scott Besson on NBC's Meet the Press this weekend to tout the amazing American economy. and America's dwindling, I mean, continued support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Here's host Kristen Welker, pressing the Secretary on the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. Is Ukraine an ally of the United States?

President Trump has made it clear that he wants to end this war, that it must stop. And President Zelensky presented a false binary this morning that the Ukraine must win, the war must end. And that will be with some kind of a negotiated settlement. And President Trump is working on that every day. He's done it since he came into office. And just to the core question, though, does the United States see Ukraine as an ally? Again, that we provide the three different things to Ukraine. So that's what you do for an ally.

We're not providing those to Russia. So does that mean the United States sees Ukraine as an ally? Can you say one way or another? Again, I'm not the same. after chair of state. Hmm. Interesting. And I'm not sure Ukrainian president

Vladimir Zelensky would agree that the United States is acting like an ally. On Monday, the Ukrainian leader said Russia launched new attacks on his country's energy infrastructure. Zelensky says the Kremlin used ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones

to hit 28 substations and other critical energy facilities, depriving more than half a million people of electricity, heat, and running water. He said that key again received no early warnings of the attack from partner countries that had previously shared their intelligence. The Trump administration has recently changed course to benefit

Russian President Vladimir Putin, including waiving U.S. sanctions on Moscow and signing a deal to import diesel from Moscow. Also, Zelensky said that speed restrictions on the military grade version of SpaceX's satellite internet service are still slowing down Ukraine's drones at points along the front line. I wonder why that is happening. President Donald Trump today signed an executive order aimed at bolstering federal research on women's health, a move pushed by First Lady Melania Trump. The order will create a new women's health division at the National Institutes of Health and a White House task force focused on the issue of women's health. And the task force will be led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Because if anyone in this administration cares a lot about women, it's Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elon Musk made a big promise today. The world's richest man pledged to give one share of his company, SpaceX, to, quote, every kid in America next year. What an original idea, except not. Musk made the declaration only after Artificial Intelligence Company Anthropic announced in a social media post that it will commit 5% of its shares to the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, a new entity within the company. In response to that Sunday post, Musk wrote, quote, I recommend giving the shares directly to the public.

SpaceX shares closed at $146.3. On Friday, with about 73 million children under the age of 18 in the United States, that would put the value of Musk's pledge at about $10.66 billion. That is, if anyone believes Elon Musk's word about anything, never. But I want to talk a little bit more about Florida and how the red state might not be so red. Maybe. Possibly.

Joining me is Aaron Haynes, co-host of Cricket Media's Longplay. Aaron Haynes, welcome to Water Day. You know what? Welcome back. It's good to be with you. It is tremendous to have you. So for the most recent episode of Longplay, you spent time in North Florida talking to gubernatorial candidates, Republican Byron Donald's, and Democrat David Jolly. And as someone, you mentioned in the episode, you lived in Florida.

You had your first journalism job in Orlando back in the time that isn't right now. Yes. Before. What struck you the most about your conversations on the ground? Obviously, you know, a lot has been happening, a lot has changed, but what struck you about what people are talking about, what people are worried about. I mean, yeah, look, obviously affordability continues to be like the top issue for voters across the country. But what that looks like specifically in Florida was really, really interesting to hear. And it did make me think back to when I lived in Orlando.

So my rent was really cheap. It was a great place for a young person to start their life. You know, the cost of living was low. There was no state tax. And I could, you know, find a place to live that was really, really affordable. And yet I talked to a group of young people, you know, students at Florida A&M University, Gen Z voters, if you will, and they're talking about how being a college student is really a struggle, trying to pay for groceries, trying to pay, you know, for their tuition, trying to pay for put gas in the tank.

Like it's more than an ocean and it certainly sounds a lot more daunting than when I was a college student. And then you think about them getting ready to come out into the working world. They're very nervous about what that can look like for them. They don't feel like they can really start their lives in Florida. A lot of them said that they were probably leaving because it's going to cost too much for them to live there. So, you know, you take that compounded with people, home ownership being out of reach for a lot of people in Florida. The insurance, the homeowners insurance in Florida. in Florida just drives prices up so much because of the hurricanes and how that just makes it much

more expensive to live there. Air conditioning we know is not cheap in a place like Florida that is just perennially humid and unbearable if you don't have air conditioning. So you add all that stuff up and people there are struggling. They're trying to figure out how to make things work. And they feel like in a lot of cases, the folks that are currently representing them, they want to do a better job. And so they're looking for change there, too. And so much of that seems to come down to affordability. Yeah, it's interesting because you have so many people who

moved from, you know, New York or Connecticut, all these other places to Florida, in many cases because it was supposed to be more affordable. And now that promises less promising. But you made a point just there that I was interested in because at the very top of the episode, Byron Donald says in a new speech, the Democrats created so many of the issues that are facing our country, why would we hire them to put out the fire that they started? But no Democrat has won statewide office in Florida since Nikki Fried won the agriculture job back in 2018. No Democrat has won a Senate seat since 2012. And there hasn't been a Democratic governor of Florida since 1994. We're in a real anti-incumbent, throw the bums out mood, I think, as voters. I think everybody is.

The people you've talked to were very much of the opinion that the people in charge aren't doing enough about affordability. So how are Republicans having been in charge dealing with this anti-incumbent mood? Because it sounds like they're blaming Democrats who aren't in charge. Yeah, I mean, that is exactly the case that Byron Donald was making on the stump. You see it in the episode. And there's some really interesting dynamics at play in Florida right now. I mean, for all the reasons you said, Florida has not been blue in more than a generation at this point. And so folks are open. People from those young people that I talk to at Fam U to, to some of the people that were

at the rally that I covered that Angie Nixon headline, this was in, I mean, yeah, it's North Florida, but like definitely culturally the South in terms of emotionally, if not geographically, right? So you have a district, a county that Trump won by like 18 points. It's, you know, Monticello, the city that we were in, 43% black. And yet you have this mixed crowd that, you know, in a deeply red area that went for Trump that is open to an Angie Nixon candidacy, that people in the room are excited to hear what she's saying, not only about how, you know, Republicans in the state, to her telling of, have let those voters down,

but what she's going to do for them. And I think that that's really the thing that's driving all of this. we have a cycle where voters are really interested in hearing what candidates want to do from them. Not necessarily who these candidates are, but what are your policies and how are you going to help me? That's the thing that has so many people, I think, open to doing something that maybe they have never done before. We got the chance to talk to Angie Nixon last week, which was a great conversation. And she talked about how Florida is not a red state. She said, quote, we've been flipping seats all across the state this past year and these past two years, right?

and that's because people have been investing in the state within certain areas more recently. So her point was Florida is not a red state. Democrats just haven't been investing in Florida. What do you think of that argument? I mean, look, I think that's what we've seen for long play in so many states in the South, the lack of investment in the South, particularly by the Democratic Party, right, like treating the South like a foregone conclusion. Florida is just, I mean, the South is just a deep red region.

And so what is the point of us, you know, even contesting? You are seeing places like Florida. I would argue places like Mississippi. We saw it happen, you know, in Georgia in 2020, where if you have viable candidates, if you have investment, and if you have, you know, these in so many cases, because of the lack of investment from an official party structure, you have these more grassroots organizations. Angie Nixon, by the way, somebody who was the executive director of Florida for all, literally put tens of thousands of people on the role. So to the extent that that registered voter gap, there's like 1.5. 1.6 million more Republican registered voters in Florida to the extent that that gap has been closed. It's been due to the efforts of people like Angie Nixon on the ground in Florida, putting more people on the rolls and saying this is a place, right?

Electability is about who we elect. It's about who we're able to get engaged and turned out and interested in. So to act like there aren't Democrats who are in Florida who want or people who want a change who are open to change. you know, you're throwing in the towel before you even try to put up a fight. So I think that's what people like her are saying. We've seen that in episode after episode places that people thought, oh, you know, this place has been red for so long. It doesn't mean they can't turn, you know, at least purple, if not totally blue. I think Georgia was the one that surprised a lot of people four years ago. We may be in for some more surprises in the next 15 days. I mean, I'm not sure how you feel about it.

But as somebody who's lived in a bunch of different places across the country, I don't treat pretty much anywhere as being a foregone conclusion for either party. I think that there's been far too much of that, far too many people making assumptions about Latino voters in South Florida or black voters in anywhere. Yeah. And I think that, you know, that's something that you get when you actually live in a bunch of places and talk to a bunch of different people is that like anyone can vote in any direction and you really just can't kind of foreclose on those possibilities.

Yeah. And what that narrative does psychologically, right? For voters who think, oh, my vote isn't going to matter if I don't, you know, or for parties who think, oh, that place, you know, forget about that place. We shouldn't invest in that place. It does take folks to have political imagination, quite frankly, for things to change, for things to be different. But when that happens, I mean, we see it over and over again in places all across this country. And I think we're increasingly seeing it in the South. So you got to speak with both Byron Donald's.

And David Jolly. And I did not realize this at the time before listening and doing some research. But Byron Donald's was a Democrat until 2010 he changed his party registration. David Jolly was a Republican member of the House of Representatives. And now he's running as a Democrat. He's telling you about how when Florida voters elect a Democratic governor, it's going to shape the map. It's going to change the run to the White House in 2028. And I'm like, you were a Republican member of the House, like within fairly. recent memory, what does that tell you about political incentives and what Florida politics looks like on the ground? We can't make assumptions about identity, right? I mean, certainly you got Byron Donald's who is saying, you know, I could be Florida's first black governor. The thought that that person would also potentially be a Republican, not expected from a lot of people, right? But here he is, and he is absolutely in this race. there are, I mean, we talk to white voters, white Republicans who are very open to his candidacy, right? So like, to your point about, you know, us not continuing to hold on to certain maybe long-held beliefs or assumptions, he's not, I mean, he couldn't be in this race if he held on to those things, right?

He couldn't make his case to people if that was the thing that he believed to be true and just was never, ever going to change. And I think, you know, for David Jolly, what it means is he has a lot to, a lot of work to. do because of his, you know, very recent affiliation with the Republican Party, a party that many black people are not supporting, right? They're not open to. And so what does it mean for him to appeal to black voters in a way that is coming across as sincere in a way that's coming across as authentic? Both of those candidates went to FAMU to address those students directly.

Bauer & Donald's actually attended FAMU for a few years in college before he transferred to Florida State. So, like, he has some credibility with some number of black students that could at least be open to his candidacy. The family students that I talked to said, I haven't made a decision about who I'm going to vote for for governor yet. I'm still waiting to hear. I'm going to make my decision closer to Election Day, maybe even on Election Day. Just because somebody is a Democrat or just because somebody is the black candidate doesn't mean that I have to cast my ballot for them. So, I mean, just really, really interesting dynamics.

I'm not ready to say that we are in a postpartisan environment by any means, but the idea that you have so many voters that are open to at least considering, right, that they're not just going to check the box because the candidate is red or blue. Like, that is really interesting to see right now. We'll get back to my conversation with Aaron Haynes in just a moment. What a day is brought to you by trees.com. You've heard me talk about them as fast-growing trees, but now they're trees.com. They say I'm trusted online nursery with a simpler name.

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What did you think of that moment where Donald's is attempting to express his independence from Donald Trump? But as, you know, we've been talking about in the show, Donald's owes his political career, especially he owes this gubernatorial run to Donald Trump. So what did you think of like whether or not it's true, which I don't think it is? What did you think of him trying to make this point? What did that say about Trump's standing in the state of Florida? He is underwater in Florida in terms of popularity. and Byron Donalds knows that he is, we thought a lot in this episode

about what a winning coalition is going to need to look like in Florida. You're going to have to bring in folks that you don't already have. You're going to have to bring in folks that you wouldn't normally even be going after, right? And so this is why you see Byron Donald's scrubbing his account of any reference to Donald Trump on the campaign website, right? Like while he's trying to at least create some daylight walking this really fine line between, you know,

yes, President Trump is my friend, but also I don't always agree with my friends and isn't that, you know, the way that things are supposed to be now agreeing with your friend almost 100% of the time, even if it's not 100%, like it's pretty close to 100%. But saying, you know, sometimes we disagree on some things, trying to create that daylight while also not trying to alienate potential MAGA voters who could be supporting his candidacy, right?

But then also maybe some of the Republicans who don't feel like they have a political home right now, but could be supportive of Byron Donald's, not to mention independence, who Byron Donald's could be appealing to for some other reason. Like, he's walking a very fine line here because he knows that he's, I mean, it's going to be a close race down there,

and he's going to have to build a certain type of coalition that's pulling in some folks that are frankly going to be some pretty odd bedfellers. I mentioned what Jolly told the show about how this could reshape, you know, a theoretical David Jolly wins. in the gubernator election could reshape not just Florida politics, but national politics. So, and we've talked about the underinvestment by Democrats in Florida.

How much should Democrats be investing in Florida? Because I think Democrats with Texas, with Florida, with a host of other states, Democrats have a long enough memory to be like, well, there was that time that we put, you know, 50 million, 60 million, 70 million dollars into this race and then lost again. Like I think that there's a real, Democrats are, I think, understandably gun-shy about a state like Florida or a state like Texas or a host of the other states that you've been to. So how should Democrats be viewing Florida as, you know, you don't want to foreclose upon it,

but also money is finite unless you're Elon Musk. Money is finite unless you're Elon Musk. Yeah, that is definitely a takeaway from this cycle, right? Or just this political moment. It is kind of this paradox, right? because if you don't invest, then how are things supposed to change? But if it doesn't appear that things are changing fast enough, then you're not going to attract the investment.

Like, there's so much kind of proof of concept. Everybody wants to be with a winner, right? But also, what does it take to make a winner? Like, these are the tensions that I think the Democratic Party is grappling with right now in a lot of places. And, you know, as these races are coming down to the wire, like I said, we're 15 days out here, you're starting to see money maybe coming in for some of these candidates that definitely

we're saying, you know, we need the money way before now, but down the home stretch, as money is starting to come in, maybe from some donors, maybe from the party, is that money going to be too late? Is that money going to be helpful to push people across the finish line? I think that they're probably on the other side of these midterms, we are probably going to see the Democratic Party as they immediately turned to 2028, having a bit of a reckoning, right? They got to have a family meeting to figure out, you know, what happened, you know, who won, who lost, where did that happen? And what does that say about where the party needs to go in terms of where they invest, who they invest in, which voters,

they maybe under-prioritized, need to prioritize more? I think all of that is going to be in question as all of us are kind of little. looking at the aftermath of November 3rd. So to that point, I think, Erin, I have a bad case of Democratic anxiety. I mean, I'm anxious about everything, but I'm definitely in the extremely anxious part of this midterm cycle. I hate this. I hate everything about it. But, you know, Nate Silver, co-host of Crook Media still counting, argued today that Democrats have a 75% chance of winning the Senate. And I saw that and I was like, that's too much opium.

That's that's too rich for my blood. That's, um, no, no, no, no, no, no. Cool, it's too sweet for you, Jane. Yeah, I'm just like, no, no, no, that's bad. That's bad for, that's bad for my numbers. But you've been doing so much work, uh, talking to people, talking to voters. You're in a bunch of states where Democrats are feeling bullish in a way that they have not felt. And since I was in college in, like 2006, um,

What's your take? How are you feeling about Democrats with regard to maybe taking the Senate? I mean, Jane, it's football season right now, right? I'm living for college football. We won't talk about this week's AP Top 25 standings. I'm very upset of where Georgia is. I digress. The point I'm trying to make. Look, that Auburn again happened and we were all there for it. We don't talk about. We don't talk about last week. We're going to redeem ourselves. But look, Democrats are, they're probably in the United States. the red zone right now, right? They're feeling like they're close. They can see, they can see the

goal line and they're trying to get there. Early voting records are being smashed in places like Georgia, right? Early voting started almost a week ago, and I mean, they're just blowing through these records. So there seems to be a lot of momentum, right? And especially you kind of felt the energy in September building and building and building in some of these places where people were thinking, oh, maybe this can happen. I hear you. Like, I am not in a predictability business change. So I hear you when I see. Shout out to Nate Silver. But, you know, for the rest of us, we're kind of like, well, we still got to, you know, wait and see what happens here in these races, especially in places where it is daunting. I mean, like, look, the fact of the matter is you've had places where you haven't seen a Democrat win in years, if not decades, if not a generation. So, yeah, I mean, you look at the political climate, you look at the mood of the country, you look at some.

So many people just really wanting change and being open to something different. Like these are the kind of factors that are, I think, giving Democrats, especially in this, across the South, a lot of hope and the country to the extent that people are wanting to see Democrats take charge in the House and the Senate, giving them hope that that can, in fact, be the outcome. But I think we have to keep watching to see what early voting looks like over the coming days. And really, as I know I don't have to tell you, like, the most important poll is election day. Like, that's the poll that matters.

And so we just, a lot of this feels, it can feel really mercurial. We've been on the ground. We've been talking to so many voters. We've gotten to see these candidates in action. There is a lot of energy. There's a lot. Voters are engaged. Voters are paying attention and voters are wanting to make their voices heard. So I think, you know, who, at this point, you know, it really is all about the ground game and what that looks like. It's time to push your people out. I feel like the messages, I don't know about where you are, but, you know, I'm here in Georgia. The mailers are, I mean, my mailbox is full every single day with just campaign messaging. And that's, you know, I'm here in Georgia. I'm here in Georgia. The mailers are, I mean, my mailbox is full every single day with just campaign messaging. And that's, to say nothing of the text messages that I'm getting nonstop and also kind of, and the ads that are running on television, just nonstop. But I think people are, people are ready to get out there.

They're ready to make their voice heard. And so I think that is seeing that energy and that momentum, who that benefits. Yeah, it's really, it's just still really hard to say. You've got Trump out here now doing all these rallies, telling people, you know, vote like I'm on the ballot. but I think we'll figure out which meaning of that voters took from him when we get to the other side of November. Erin, thank you so much for joining me. You got it. Thanks for having me. And thanks for catching Longplay.

We're in Georgia next week. And so I really hope people are tuning in because it has really been fascinating to be on the ground in this part of the country and headed into the final stretch of this thing. It is really fascinating to be able to have a front row seat. So join us. That was my conversation with Aaron Haynes, co-host of Cricket Media's Long Play. Before we go, Long Play, Krugid's limited series about the ever-changing political landscape of the American South, is back on the air. Last season on Long Play, political expert Jennifer Palmary, an award-winning journalist Aaron Haynes, introduced us to the battleground states in the South that could define this midterm election. And as tensions rise within Trump's coalition and Republicans back out of frontline districts across the country, they decided it was time to get back out of.

out on the road to report firsthand on the unlikely swing states Democrats need to win back the South. Whether you heard the first season or are new to the show, it's a must listen for understanding this rapidly evolving race. A new episode is out today. Subscribe to Longplay on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review. Let's listen to Donald Trump at an event that is supposed to be about women's health today and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading. And not just about how when you listen to this, I need you to remember that this was an event

to launch a women's health initiative. It's become the most popular place to have a news conference. And I hope you enjoy it. I even see the cushions? Those beautiful yellow cushions. They're supposed to be a half an inch high. I said, how about four inches? Don't they feel nice?

They don't make them in four inches. I had them specially made four inches for everybody. So it lifts you up higher, and it's a lot more comfortable than the one inch deal. Well, enjoy it. Like me, Whataday is also a night in the newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at cricket.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane Koston, and... What was that?

Cushions? What? What Today is a production of Cricket Media. Our show is produced by Emily 4, Erica Morrison, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Metberg, Adam, Lippirk, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had helped today from the Associated Press.

Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. Long play, our docu-series exploring the people and forces shaping the South is back. Newsflash, the South is the new political epicenter of the country. Democrats are way on their heels in this region, but

Republicans are going through their own reckoning in the South, too. We're in the final stretch of the midterms, and the political map has only gotten more competitive with new states, in districts emerging as potential flips. So we thought it was time to get back out on the road and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ground. I'm Aaron Haynes, journalist and expert on all things southern politics.

And I'm Jennifer Palmary, former White House Communications Director. Tune in on Mondays to Long Play Series on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.