What A Day - Has The West Forgotten About Ukraine?

Episode Date: May 19, 2026

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. And despite President Donald Trump's promise to end the conflict on his first day back in office, the two countries are still at war. So far, over 300,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, compared to roughly 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The fighting is brutal, and it seems to keep… going. So how can both sides end this conflict – and what will the U.S. do to help (or hurt) the peace process? To find out, we spoke with Lucian Kim. He's a senior Ukraine analyst for the International Crisis Group. When we spoke, he had just returned from an 11-day trip to Ukraine.And in headlines, Trump holds off on striking Iran, a data analytics firm unveils just how much several Polymarket accounts have made betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations, and Trump's approval rating continues to dip.Show Notes: Check out Lucian's book – https://tinyurl.com/ytkkh6d3 Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

It's Tuesday, May 19th. I'm Jane Koston, and this is Waday. The show that totally agrees with Vice President J.D. Vance. Here he is speaking in Kansas City on Monday. If you want to rebuild the American dream for the next generation, vote against the crazy leadership in Washington, D.C. Co-assign, Mr. Vice President. On today's show, President Donald Trump's approval rating is down in the dumps. And we get new insight on anonymous betters profiting from war. But let's start with Russia's war in Ukraine.

When he was on the campaign trail, Trump said he'd end the conflict on day one back in office, which didn't happen. But Hope Spring is eternal for Trump, I guess. Remember back in March of this year, after the start of Trump's war in Iran, when the president told reporters that Russia's war in Ukraine was, quote, very high on his priority list? I thought this was going to be much easier than it is. It's a very, it's tremendous hatred between,

between President Putin and President Zelensky, tremendous hatred. I've seen a lot of hatred in my life, but I think this is about top scale. I believe it's going to happen. No such luck. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In a speech given that same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the, quote, special military operation was to rescue the people of Ukraine's Dombus region who, quote, suffer from abuse and genocide from the Kiev regime.

Russian state media argued that the war would last just weeks, if not days, but four years later, Ukraine or Russia are still at war. Over 300,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, compared to roughly 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The number of civilian deaths is harder to track, but we do know that at least 15,000 Ukrainians have died. Russian state news says that more than 1,000 Russian civilians have been killed since the war began. This war has been brutal and deadly, and it seems like it just keeps going. So how can both

sides end this conflict? And what will the U.S. do to help or hurt the peace process? To find out, I spoke to Lucien Kim. He's the senior Ukraine analyst for the International Crisis Group. When we spoke, he had recently returned from an 11-day trip to Ukraine. Lucian, welcome to what today. Great to be here, Jane. Russia's war against Ukraine started more than four years ago. And at this point, I feel like I've heard Trump say the war is almost over, that PCL is imminent a bunch of times. But you just got back from a trip to Ukraine last week. What's it like on the ground? You know, it's kind of two different feelings.

On one hand, it's a bustling big city with a lot of life going on. And the disconcerting thing is that at night, there are often air raid alarms. And Russian drones, often missiles. strike Kiev and other big cities. And that's what makes the whole thing so surreal. You think you're in just a normal European city, yet you often have sleepless nights. And there was a devastating attack right after I left last week

that killed 24 people in Kiev. I want to back up for a second because I remember reading last week that Russia's war against Ukraine has lasted longer than the Soviet Union's war against Nazi Germany. And that was something I studied for a very long. time. So it's just wild to me to think that this has lasted that long. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in February of 2022 as a special military operation, how did Putin think this would go?

Well, you know, you're using air quotes to say special military operation and many people think it's a euphemism. In fact, he thought it was a special military operation. He thought that he could get the job done, if not in a couple of days, then no more than a few weeks. He thought he was just going to roll over Ukraine, decapitate the Zelensky government, and install a puppet regime in no time. Why did he make this great miscalculation? Well, most of all, he was getting a lot of poor intelligence. He was being told by his intelligence services things that he wanted to hear. And he has, you know, he had been already in power for more than 20 years at that point. And he had a very small circle of advisors. And they were also,

he was in an echo chamber. And the things that he was hearing was that Zelensky, Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, was very unpopular, which was actually true at the time. And he figured that Russian soldiers would be received and welcomed as as liberators. And as we know now that was a grave miscalculation. He had basically convinced himself after repeating enough times that Ukrainians and Russians were one people in his in his words. And what was his thinking after taking basically taking over Ukraine? What was his plan after installing this puppet regime in Ukraine? Like what next? Well, Ukraine occupies a very special place in not only Vladimir Putin's

mind, but in the mind of many Russians. So they believe that Ukraine is essential for some Russian-led civilization. That this is, it was, Ukraine played a key role in the Russian Empire, as a breadbasket, as an industrial powerhouse. And later in the Soviet Union, when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, it was, after Russia, it was really the most economically important part of the Soviet Union. So it was this idea that we need to, before Ukraine goes and runs off to join Europe or the Americans, we better stop this once and for all and reestablish control.

Well, fast forward four years from 2022. And last weekend, Ukraine pulled off its largest and most deadly attack in the Moscow region using drones. Ukraine is reportedly fending off Russia on the front lines, even winning back some of its territory, and at worst, seems to have forced Russia into a stalemate. What's changed? It's really, you know, unbelievable because as I mentioned, it was supposed to be a special military operation over, you know, in a matter of weeks at the most. And if somebody had said back in 2022 that Ukraine would still be fighting back and that, Russians would be feeling drone attacks on their own territory as far away as at Moscow or St. Petersburg. Nobody would have believed that.

So it's actually close to miraculous what the Ukrainians have pulled off. They have managed to survive. They consolidated as a nation. And even though they never got enough Western assistance that they wanted, and despite the fact that the Trump administration has more or less turned its back on Ukraine, they have started their own indigenous drone industry and have really innovated on an incredible scale. Back in 2024, President Trump said he could end this war in 24 hours. It turns out ending wars is hard, and now he's wrapped up in his own war in Iran.

Where do peace negotiations go from here? With the U.S. distracted by its own conflict, and as you mentioned, not providing very much assistance to Ukraine at all in the first place? I think the Ukrainians realize that they are now on the back burner as far as the Trump administration's attention. And they're trying to make the best of it. So interestingly enough, when the American attack began on Iran, one of the first world leaders to support it on social media was Volodymyr Zelensky.

And what he was really trying to do was put Iran and Russia in the same bag. sort of to illustrate it to Trump that these guys are actually in the same camp. The reason for that, of course, is that Iran supplied Russia with its Shahed drones early on in the invasion of Ukraine, and that played a critical role. So suddenly these drones were now attacking U.S. allies in the Gulf. And Zelensky tried to use the war to gain a... attention to developments in Ukraine's drone industry. And he made a big tour through the Middle East

and signed drone agreements with some of the main players like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and tried to make the best of it. Of course, you know, there's certain optimism right now in Kiev, but it's still a hard war. And, you know, if they can get it back on a negotiating track, that would be great. Zolensky has said that he,

He would very much like Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkoff to come and visit him in Kiev. Those are, of course, the two Trump negotiators. But let's be realistic. Nobody in Kiev right now is expecting the negotiations to pick up anytime soon. Yeah, it seems like what it would take to get Russia and Ukraine on the same page for a peace deal would be very different. what does each party want here? And is it something that they could come to some sort of meeting in the middle on? That's a very good question.

I mean, what does Russia want? And I think in order to make peace, find peace in Ukraine, it's very important to understand the motivations of the two sides. And for Russia, I think there's a misunderstanding sometimes. There's this idea that, oh, well, if Russia, if Russia, just gets to keep what it what it invaded already, they'll be happy with adding four or five new regions to the Russian Federation. Lucian, I can tell you, I have never thought that. I know that Putin has always admired Peter the Great. I know he does not want four to five new regions. Exactly. This is a war to subordinate Ukraine, right? Putin is not going to rest until

Ukraine is subordinated. I think everybody in Ukraine understands this. Putin is at this stage in his career as Russia's leader to understand that he's thinking of his historical legacy and he wants to be remembered as the Russian leader who reconquered Ukraine and who did not lose Ukraine. So this is really an obsession for Vladimir Putin. As for the Ukrainians, this is a war of survival. It's as simple as that. Of course, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Ukrainians successfully defended the capital, Kiev, and they actually had a very successful counter-offensive, where they regained a lot of their own territory back. And that caused some optimism, and people said, you know, we want to have Ukraine in its original 1991 borders. That, of course,

is, I think most people on the ground see that as aspirational. That is something that Ukraine, would like as sort of for historical justice. But they understand that, you know, in the current circumstances, probably the best they can get is a freezing of the front lines. Lucian, thank you so much for joining me. Thanks so much for having me, Jane. That was my conversation with Lucy and Kim, senior Ukraine analyst for the International Crisis Group. This is a podcast that does not try to forecast how long wars are going to last, which is a weird thing to brag about. But hey, if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. leave a five-star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube, and share with your friends.

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Head aligns. And there seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I'd be very happy. Trump said Monday, he's holding off on a military strike in a round that was planned for today. He told reporters during an event on health care, but he was calling off the strike at the request of allies in the Middle East because they feel they are close to a deal with Iran. This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Pollymarket so far. BubbleMap CEO Nicholas Viamen told 60 Minutes that the data analytics firm made an interesting discovery about several betters on Pollymarket.

We spotted nine Pollymarket accounts, all connected who made collectively $2.4 million dollars, banning almost exclusively on U.S. military operation. According to bubble maps, the users placed bets on important dates pertaining to the Iran war. The kicker, the accounts won 98% of 80 bets. The double kicker? The traders are anonymous. Trump's Department of Justice announced that it's creating a $1.776, get it, billion dollar,

quote, anti-weaponization fund to help those who claim to have been unfairly targeted by previous administrations. Trump defended the DOJ Slush Fund during Monday's health care event. Why should taxpayers pay for the January 6th? Well, it's been very well received. I have to tell you, I know very little about it. I wasn't involved in the whole creation of it and the negotiation. But this is reimbursing people that were horribly treated, horribly treated. It's anti-weaponization. They've been weaponized. They've been in some cases imprisoned wrongly. They paid legal fees that they didn't have, they've gone bankrupt, their lives have been destroyed, and they

turn out to be right. Very well received, and yet he knows. Very little about it. Trump's team unveiled the fund after it moved to dismiss its $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS. Trump officials have been holding secret talks with Greenlandic leaders for months about the nation's future, according to the New York Times. Local politicians are worried that Trump's team is trying to exert influence over Greenland. Proposals reportedly include allowing American troops to stay in Greenland indefinitely, in granting the U.S. veto power over investment deals from Russia, China, and others. Time for one of my favorite comfort reads, Trump's plummeting polling. On Monday, Trump hit an approval rating of 37 percent, according to a New York Times-Syana poll. That's the lowest approval

rating from the poll for Trump in either of his terms in office. Why is Trump's polling so low? Let me count the ways. For one thing, the Times reported that just 30 percent of Americans think Trump's decision to go to war on Iran was a good idea. 31% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the war. It's no wonder then that for the first time in his second term, Trump's average job approval in the real clear politics poll aggregator has fallen below 40%. And speaking of firsts, according to CNN, a majority of white voters without college degrees disapprove of Trump.

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Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane Koston, and it's always so sad when a man who spends most of his time complaining about the casting decisions of movies he hasn't seen loses a lawsuit because he can't get a shit together. What a day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Four, Erica Morrison, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had helped today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized for the Writers Guild of America East.