What A Day - If Not A Recession, Why Does It Feel Like One?

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

After Tuesday’s election results, everyone seems to have gotten the message that affordability is king. Democrats, Republicans, and even President Donald Trump have been talking about the costs of various things, like healthcare, groceries, and Thanksgiving dinner ever since. But for a lot of Americans, making ends meet has been hard for a while. To talk more about the disconnect between what the Trump administration is saying about the economy and how Americans are feeling, we spoke with Stacy Vanek Smith. She’s a reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek and co-host of the Bloomberg podcast, Everybody’s Business.And in headlines, the Federal Aviation Administration cancels flights across the U.S. reportedly to ease the strain on air traffic controllers during the longest ever government shutdown, California Democratic Representative Nancy Pelosi announces her retirement after nearly 40 years in Congress, and the jury in the case of the man who slung twelve inches of vigilante justice at a federal officer has reached its verdict.Show Notes: Check out Stacey's podcast – https://tinyurl.com/y2zannt6Call Congress – 202-224-3121Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcastFollow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's Friday, November 7th. I'm Todd Zwillick in for Jane Koston, and this is What a Day. The show that knows caring about affordability hits harder when you care about it from a $300 million gold-plated ballroom. On today's show, the Federal Aviation Administration cancels flights across the U.S. to ease the strain on air traffic controllers during the record-long government shutdown. And the jury in the case of a man who slung 12 inches of vigilante justice at a federal officer, on multi-grained, no less, has reached its verdict. But let's start with the cost of things.

Everyone seems to have gotten the message on affordability after Tuesday. Democrats, Republicans, even the Crypto King president. For Dems, it's a no-brainer. The cost of health care, the cost of eggs. they pivot to it all the time. So if they can interpret every last vote as being about affordability, even without evidence, they're going to. Okay, but what about President Trump?

Can a man fixing to fly a $400 million jet gifted from Qatar or trade off of $2 billion in Emirati crypto really know about the price of a Thanksgiving turkey? You betcha. On Thursday, Trump talked about some new data he likes from his favorite donors, Walmart. They just came out with a very powerful statement. They've done it for many years that under the Biden administration, Thanksgiving meal,

a Thanksgiving meal with all the trimmings, costs 25% more. In other words, our Thanksgiving this year coming up will cost 25% less than sleepy Joe Biden's. As you can see, Trump super cares about prices now. Only problem with these incredible Thanksgiving sales. Savings is, you guessed it, they're false. Wholesale turkey prices are up 75% from a year ago, according to an analysis from Purdue University. In the store, Purdue predicts the average price of a bird this month will be 25% higher than last year. That's not Trump's fault. Things like bird flu have affected prices. The point is, he's lying. I know. I know. But hey, know what else's

expensive? Blockbuster weight-lossed drugs. Trump went in on affordability Thursday by announcing a deal with drug makers to cut prices on OZempic and other meds by next year. One reporter asked about mergers and acquisitions by the very drug companies cutting deals with Trump. That means they also have billions in business pending before the Trump administration. Trump had some advice for the CEO of OZempic maker Novo Nordisk on how to keep prices affordable. Novo Nordisk is in the middle of a potential $10 billion acquisition for a smaller obesity biotech. They might need your and the FTC's help to see that through. Do you have any issues with that or Eli Lilly buying a smaller obesity biotech from an anti-competence?

Well, I don't know. Do you want to talk about that? I'd like to hear it. Maybe you should give us a piece of the company like I've been asked for. Give the United States a nice big job in the company. That's how you keep business affordable in the Trump. Vera, give him a piece and pass the gravy. Trump's appetites aside, getting by in this economy has been hard for a while to talk more about the disconnect between what the administration is saying and how Americans are

feeling. I spoke with Stacey Vanek-Smith, reporter for Bloomberg Business Week, and co-host of their podcast, Everybody's Business. Stacey, welcome to What a Day. Thanks. Thank you, Todd. I'm glad to be here. Even though no one is officially saying.

it feels like we're in a recession. Layoffs keep coming. We'll talk about it. Tariffs jacked up everywhere. Prices are up. People have been feeling the effects of inflation for years now, and there's no question that affordability is a massive urgent issue on people's minds. I know there's a dictionary definition of recession to quarters of negative growth. I get that. But why aren't we saying recession when across the real economy it really seems like it? That is a great question. I think that's the question that people ask me the most right now is like we're in a recession, right? Because like you say, it feels like a recession right now. The job market feels bad. And then there is such a strange disconnect when this data comes out and says, you know, oh, the unemployment rate's the lowest it's been in decades or yeah, hiring is really low, but layoffs are also at the lowest level they've been in decades. Like it feels incongruent with what we're experiencing. My personal is that we are not living in one economy right now. I think there are several economies kind of going parallel.

And depending on who you are and where you are in the economy, your experience is just vastly different. And I think that's always true to some extent, but I think it's especially true now. So one model that helps explain this, or even one letter, maybe if we were on Sesame Street, is the letter K. Yes. It stands for the K-shaped economy. Can you explain what that means and how it applies to the different economies that you're talking about? So if you just think of the letter K, there's the upper arm that goes up and the lower part that goes down. So that is essentially what people say is happening to the economy.

One part of our economy is going gangbusters. And that part is AI. AI now accounts for up to a third of market value. Like these companies are just making. money hand over fist. And the markets have been rising, rising, rising. So people who have a lot of investments in the stock market who are part of these companies, they are having a great experience in the economy. 10% of the population in the country is now fueling half of all the spending. Now, if you are not in that upper part of the economy, your experience of this economy is totally

different. So the bottom part of the K-shaped economy, lower income Americans, lower income workers, we're doing pretty well during the pandemic. There was a big shortage of workers, so companies were fighting to hire people. Wages started rising, and they were rising especially fast for some of the workers who earned the lowest wages. It was one of the first times we'd seen that in a long time. It was really exciting. That is completely reversed course. Now, those workers tend to be a little more vulnerable when the job market is not great like it is right now.

Their wages are not keeping up with inflation. Like you mentioned, inflation is the cost of everything. everything is going up at the same time, they are not necessarily seeing the benefits of the part of the economy that's expanding. It feels like there might be sort of a doom loop scenario to what you're describing. I mean, AI is booming. At the same time, AI is also driving some of the layoffs that we've seen lately. Amazon comes to mind.

And we're told the promise of AI for the future is automation. Like a lot of the jobs on the lower part of the K are going to be the ones that go. Frankly, maybe some of the jobs on the upper part of the K2 for lawyers and, you know, content creators, I guess. But the thing that's driving the economy now and keeping it's like just neck above water might be the thing that drags it down in the medium and long term. Well, this is the big unknown. And this is the thing that I think could push the economy into a really deep trouble, which is we don't really know what AI is going to do. We don't really know which jobs it's ultimately going to replace. I think we're starting to see some of that happen, but most companies don't really know how to use AI yet or not to its full potential.

So we're seeing AI kind of start to affect the economy, but a lot of this is speculation. A lot of these companies, there's worry that they could be way overvalued. And if that corrects itself, that could be a really, really dark stretch for us as a country. But yeah, you're right. And while AI does seem to be coming more for white-collar jobs, as they call them, like the knowledge economy, people who are higher earners, they tend to just have more flexibility and more options. So I want to talk a little bit about the politics of all this. We're hearing so much about affordability and those concerns are real. But in the last sort of third of the Biden presidency, there was this phenomenon where a lot of the country was straining under high inflation.

everybody knew they were doing poorly. And here was the Biden administration and the president himself saying, what do you mean? Look at the employment numbers. Look at the numbers on this spreadsheet I have. Everything's great. And nobody bought it because they weren't feeling it in their lives. And they really said so at election time in a lot of ways. Then this very week, the exact same questions for Donald Trump just lost an off-year election.

And he is absolutely certain that. he has saved the economy and just the rest of us don't get it. Is it happening again? I mean, I feel like President Trump does this all the time. Like, he sort of tries to speak things into reality. But you make the really smart point that the Biden administration was doing the same thing, where they were saying, no, no, no, look at the data, look at the data. It's true that workers were getting wages. It's true that the job part of the economy was pretty hot during the later part of the pandemic. It was also true that prices seem to be rising faster than wages. So even if we were getting raises, they didn't feel like raises because it

bought less and less. And, you know, when eggs are tripling in price and that's the cheapest form of protein and you're trying to feed your family, you know, a 10% raise isn't going to make up for the amount that we're seeing prices rise across the board. I think we're seeing exactly the same thing. I mean, President Trump largely campaigned, well, one of the things he campaigned on was groceries. We're going to make groceries affordable. But the economy isn't really cooperating. Groceries are less affordable than they were. Tariffs obviously aren't helping that situation, but a lot of other forces are working, too. So we're seeing inflation rise. And people, I think, are increasingly feeling like they're getting left behind by this economy. And the upper part of the K feels like it's

getting smaller and smaller. Well, if you ask Democrats this week after winning the election, they might say that the K-shaped economy, the K, stands for kick Trump's ass. In other words, this is why we won these states, right? This is why we shifted blue in every county because of affordability. I want to test that theory. Look, there's no question that affordability is super important to Americans. But it's also kind of the only language Democrats really know how to speak. And it makes me wonder if there's not kind of a confirmation bias here.

that Democrats really love talking about the price of turkeys and the price of health care. Therefore, affordability is why we won. I think you're right. I think the Democrats need to be a little careful not to spike the football too much because prices are going to do what prices are going to do. And while politicians can have some effect on that, ultimately it's not an elected politician, even a president that has a ton of control over something like inflation. That's more like the Federal Reserve's territory.

which is part of why Trump is obsessed with controlling the Federal Reserve. And I feel like the economy is one of the easier things to talk about. It's tangible. There are numbers with it. Like eggs have gotten more expensive. But I think sometimes these are, these become kind of symbolic of other things we're feeling. It's like the way that we can express it or the thing we can pinpoint that helps us kind of articulate what we're feeling. And if affordability, egg prices and health care premiums are your love language,

Well, that's the one you're going to speak, right? Yes. And they are the, you know, these are important love languages, right? We all care about it. You know, we all care about acts of service, eggs and health care. But politics like love is way deeper than the one thing you want to talk about. Yes, yes. I think what's so interesting when why I do like the term vibe session is that there is something that's not entirely tangible about why our feeling shift.

It's like just a vibe. The country's going in a certain direction and it doesn't feel good. And there are different reasons as to why. And I think you're right. It's easy to point to one thing, but I don't think it's one thing. I don't think the victory of Mom Donnie in New York, where I am from, is because of entirely affordability or rent or any of that. I think it's a mix of things. What do you think happens next?

We don't know where prices are going to go, but what do you expect to see next? I mean, as far as prices, I think the Federal Reserve is in a tricky situation because generally, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, which would keep prices in check, it's bad for the economy that has sort of a stompano effect in the economy that tends to slow things down. The Federal Reserve's not going to do that. It's made a pretty clear it's prioritizing jobs for right now, and jobs are not looking great. I think it's the highest rate in years and years of layoffs, almost a million layoffs. I think, according to Challenger Great Christmas this year so far, which is just a lot. And if the Federal Reserve decides to address that and cuts interest rates, that's going to mean prices rise. As the tariffs continue to kick in, also that's going to mean prices rise. So I think affordability is not going to improve anytime soon, unfortunately. I mean, in New York, Mom Donnie's saying he's going to freeze rent and things like that. And the government can do things like that.

But price controls historically have not been a great idea. They have not worked out very well. And I just think some of the forces in our economy are pushing prices up and are going to continue to do that. Stacey, thanks for joining us. Thank you, Todd. It was a pleasure. That was my conversation with Stacey Vanek-Smith, reporter for Bloomberg Business Week, and a co-host of their podcast, everybody's business. We'll get to more news in a moment.

But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube, and share it with your friends. More to come after some ads. What Today is brought to you by Americans United for Separation of Church and State. We're almost a year into the new administration, and it's getting harder to read the news and see continued attacks on our First Amendment freedoms daily. Now is the time to look for the helpers, those who are strategically fighting day in and day out to preserve our constitutional freedoms. One of the organizations fighting the good fight is Americans United for Separation of Church and

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to fight back against the growing authoritarianism in our country, consider joining Americans United for separation of church and state. Learn more by joining AU.org slash crooked because church state separation protects us all. Here's what else we're following today. People have asked me,

why don't you find money for air traffic controllers? That's the purpose of a shutdown. I don't have access to money. I can't. fine dollars to pay them because the Congress said there is no money. And so we can't break the law. And so I can't, I can't pay them. I'd love to, but I can't. Transportation Secretary and former Real World Boston star, Sean Duffy, joined Fox and Friends on Thursday to lament the longest ever government shutdown. And with good reason, hundreds of flights across the country have been

canceled because of the FAA's order to reduce air traffic at the country's busiest airports. Major hubs, including those in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, are among those facing 10% reductions in air traffic. The cuts are meant to take pressure off of air traffic controllers who've gone without pay during the shutdown. The administration is also increasing pain on Americans, hoping it will put pressure on Democrats to reopen the government. Duffy says some have even started working outside jobs to make sure they can still put food on the table. The shutdown has already led to a ton of flight delays. So what does this mean for holiday travel? As we come into Thanksgiving, if we're still in the shutdown posture, it's going to be rough out there, really rough.

And we'll mitigate the safety side, but will you fly on time? Will your flight actually go? That is yet to be seen. But there'll be more disruption. As for Congress, according to two people who spoke with Politico on condition of anonymity, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Republicans in a private lunch that he plans to hold a vote today that could pave the way to end the shutdown. And there is some good news, kind of. A federal judge in Rhode Island on Thursday ordered the Trump administration to fully fund benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP for November.

The administration has been trying to hold back some of that money. Of course, they appealed the decision immediately. I have truly loved serving as your voice in Congress, and I have always honored the song of St. Francis. Lord, make me an instrument of thy peace, the anthem of our city. That is why I want you, my fellow San Franciscans, to be the first to know. I will not be seeking re-election to Congress. Speaker of Meredith and Nancy Pelosi is bringing her storied career to a close. Pelosi, who's represented San Francisco for nearly 40 years, announced in a video on Thursday that she won't seek re-election to the U.S. House.

Pelosi was the first woman in the Speaker's Office, and at 85, remains a political force. She wields influence in power like few politicians in Washington. Pelosi was an architect of the Affordable Care Act during the Obama administration and was largely responsible behind the scenes in maneuvering a stubborn Joe Biden, to drop out of the 2024 presidential race. Her decision comes as a season generation of political leaders is stepping aside ahead of next year's midterm elections. So what's next for the people of San Francisco? California Attorney General Rob Bonta was quick to tell Politico that he'll endorse

California state Senator Scott Wiener. The Wiener spoke to what a day's Matt Berg on Thursday about what he would do if he were elected. The state senator said in addition to, quote, Saving the country from the psychopath in the White House, he would focus on what matters most. Which is the cost of living around, you know, housing and health care and transportation and energy and issues that I've worked intensively on in the legislature

and delivered on, and we take that national. Wiener said back in October that he would run for the seat, he's among several Democrats vying to succeed Pelosi. The Supreme Court handed President Trump a win on Thursday. It allowed his administration to enforce, for now, a policy that blocks transgender and non-binary Americans from selecting passport sex markers that match their gender identity. The unsigned order from the court's conservative majority pauses a lower court ruling that required the State Department to keep issuing passports with mail,

female or X options while the lawsuit plays out. In its opinion, the majority said that listing someone's sex at birth, quote, no more offends equal protection principles than displaying their country of birth. The three liberal justices dissented warning that the policy could expose trans people to, quote, increased violence, harassment, and discrimination. The decision marks the Trump administration's latest victory on the court's emergency docket and follows a similar ruling upholding his ban on transgender military service. John Davidson, senior counsel for the ACLU's LGBTQ-N-H-I-V project, said the ruling is, quote, fuel on the fire the Trump administration is stoking against transgender people and their

constitutional rights. And I am so happy that justice prevails in spite of everything happening. A man who threw a sandwich at a federal agent during President Trump's law enforcement surge in Washington, D.C., has been found not guilty of assault. The viral video of the sandwich toss back in August made Sean Charles Dunn a symbol of the resistance. Here he is speaking to reporters Thursday after being acquitted. And that night, I believe that I was protecting the rights of immigrants. And let us not forget that the great seal of the United States, state says epluribus unum. That means from many one. Every life matters, no matter where

you came from, no matter how you got here, no matter how you identify. You have the right to live a life that is free. Thank you. Sean, what does that have to do with throwing a sandwich, While there was no question of whether Dunn threw a subway sandwich at a customs and border protection agent, his lawyers argued the act of protest was a, quote, harmless gesture protected by the First Amendment. Dunn had also chanted, quote, shame toward the agents who were in front of a club hosting a Latin night. And according to police, he said, quote, why are you here? I don't want you in my city. The Justice Department initially sought a felony assault indictment against Dunn, but the grand jury refused to sign off. The office of U.S. Attorney Janine Piro

then charged him with a misdemeanor. Dunn's acquittal on Thursday is just another setback for prosecutors. And that's the news. Before we go, on this week's runaway country, Alex Wagner, hears from people directly impacted by the fallout of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, from spiking health care premiums to missing food stamps. Plus, Chris Hayes joins to break down the week's big wins for Democrats. Listen on the runaway country feed or watch on the runaway country YouTube channel. That's all for today.

If you like this show, make sure to subscribe, leave a review, and be mindful of your topping choices when assembling your next advocacy projectile and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just about how the federal agent that Sean Dunn targeted with a 12-inch sub testified, in federal court, how the impact filled his nose with the aroma of onions and mustard and the sandwich, quote, exploded all over his chest, like me. What a day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe.

I'm Todd's Willick, reminding you to eat fresh. What a day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Emily Four and Chris Alport. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Joanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Caitlin Plummer and Ethan Oberman.

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