What A Day - Iowa: That’s What’s Happening with Tommy Vietor

Episode Date: February 3, 2020

Tonight is the night of the Iowa Caucuses, so if you haven’t been paying attention, here’s your opportunity to catch up. From a tasteful three-star hotel room in the heart of Des Moines, we discuss how caucusing works and where things stand among the 2020 candidates. Plus, we’re joined by Pod Save America’s lead Iowa enthusiast, Tommy Vietor, who lends a caucus veteran's perspective. And in headlines: sexism inside Victoria’s Secret, new nut drug, and the EU lights up the Lightning Cable.

it's monday february 3rd i'm gideon resnick and i'm tommy vitor attempting to fill in for keela hughes and this is what a day coming to you from beautiful undecided iowa let's show them how we do it in the corn belt i am currently riding a tractor that's true all right tommy thanks so much for being on the show. Thanks for having me. Yeah, of course. I mean, can't think of anyone better to have talking about Iowa and the caucuses. That's your bread and butter. For those of you who may not know, Tommy was Iowa press secretary for then candidate Barack Obama in 2008.

Heard of him when they pulled off a huge upset victory in the caucuses. And really, the rest of it is history. Good old days. Yeah, that was fun. Do you ever get flashbacks while you're here? Being here is incredibly nostalgic. A lot has changed, but a lot of the caucus process is exactly the same, including the same reporters, the same big supporters that turned out and volunteered for Obama in 08. So this is very much a nostalgia tour for me. Nice. So we are in Iowa recording this in a hotel room. So if you hear knocking or any other craziness, that's what it is.

Recording this on midday Sunday. Actually, the Super Bowl hasn't happened yet. I ordered room service. Is that okay? Yeah, that's perfect. And on today's show, we're going to be talking about the Iowa caucuses. Of course, they take place Monday night. So if you are listening to this Monday morning, that is tonight, folks.

It's the first chance that voters are getting to actually start picking a Democratic nominee. It seems like it's been forever and this race has gone on as long as I've been alive. I can't believe we finally made it. Forever. So, Tommy, I want to talk about what we've been seeing on the ground here in Iowa so far, expectations going into the caucuses, how the race could change coming out of them. But first, I think it's good to quickly go over how these caucuses work. There are two main steps. First, you and your friends and family show up at your precinct at or before 7 p.m., a school, gym, church, something of the sort.

And you effectively stand in a corner where your candidate supporters are gathering. And then there is a count. That's the first round or first alignment. But after that, what happens? Yeah. So the way to understand the caucuses is that there's basically 1,700 mini elections happening all across Iowa on caucus night. So you show up at a certain place at a certain time, and then you literally go stand in a corner for your candidates. So if you support Tom Steyer, you stand over here. If you support Joe Biden, you stand over there. And then everyone there gets counted. And now this is where it gets kind of hinky. There's something called a viability threshold. And to be considered viable, you need to have

support for more than 15% of the people in the room, in your precinct, that individual location. And if you're not viable, then you can either, you can leave, you can say, I don't want to caucus anymore, I'm going home. Or you can realign with another candidate and become a supporter for your second choice. So that's what makes the Iowa caucuses kind of interesting and different. It also means that candidates are extra nice in Iowa because they want you to like them even if you're not, even if your candidate is not their first choice. Right. You need to keep favorability high so that, you know, in the case that your person fails, you can come on over and switch sides. Yeah. And this really happens on an individual level. In a precinct, you will hear

stories where an undecided voter just found someone in one candidate's corner annoying, and another was their best friend, and that's where they ended up. Wow. It's that easy, folks. Look for your best friends. Democracy. Yeah. Look for your worst enemies. Right. Okay. So there's a bunch of chatter and persuading that goes on between the rounds, like we're saying, to get those caucusers to come over to your corner. This year, some things are a little bit different with how the results are going to actually get reported. There are going to be two sets of vote tallies, one from the first alignment, one from the second or final alignment, and then

an equivalent delegate count. In the past, it was the delegate count that got reported out. So how do we kind of think that these other sets of numbers are going to change or impact how the results get read and then and how people are actually the candidates themselves are actually talking about the results? Yeah. So I think an imperfect analogy for how you should think about this is there's the Electoral College and the popular vote, right? So what you're competing for in the primary process are delegates. And so what will come out of Iowa and what is awarded to the candidates who do well or are seen as the winner are the most delegates, right? So that's the key thing going forward is getting these delegates.

But this year, the Iowa Democratic Party wanted to be more transparent. So they will release what's called like the raw vote total, and they'll do it twice. They'll do it before that realignment process we talked about and after. So, you know, hopefully this will be seen as an effort to give voters more information and help people understand what's going on. But you could also see a scenario where one candidate wins the battle for state delegate equivalence, and another wins the popular vote, and it's seen as a split decision. And you're just off to the races with a spin war between the press and the campaigns. Right. And then inevitably, people are only splitting something like, you know, 40, 41 delegates over. Yeah, yeah. So in a lot of senses, it is sort of a spin

type of situation and a momentum type of situation. But let's talk about where things stand going into the caucuses. We're in an interesting situation because there have been a couple of recent polls that showed Senator Bernie Sanders in the lead. There was a New York Times poll that had Sanders, I think, with a seven point lead, followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, then former Vice President Joe Biden, and then Senator Elizabeth Warren. A CBS poll had Sanders with a one-point lead, followed by Biden, Buttigieg, Warren. So then in the last 24 hours, we were expecting this other poll to come out from the Des Moines Register, the much-lauded Seltzer operation. And then at the last minute, they decided not to publish it due to an issue where Pete Buttigieg wasn't named by the poller when they were asking one or maybe more respondents about which candidate they support. Apparently, it had to do with a font

size. Yeah. So all of that aside, that craziness, what do we make of this decision not to publish? And historically, how impactful have those final polls typically been? So a few thoughts. One, just a weird twist on a weird year. I mean, even being here, when I think back to 2007 and 2008, the Iowa caucuses felt like the center of the universe. Hillary versus Obama was the story that everyone was covering. Now this year you have the ongoing Trump show, you have impeachment. There were days over the previous week where the Des Moines Register didn't have Iowa caucus news on the front page. So things have just felt a little off. This Des Moines Register poll is seen as the most accurate in the business. In 2007 and 8, they called the caucuses basically

spot on. And they were able to capture the fact that Obama was bringing new people into the process. And that was a big part of the discussion always. Because when you're talking about a caucus turnout in 2008 of, I think, 248,000 people, if 10,000 or 20,000 new people show up that you weren't expecting, that changes everybody's math and can wildly impact the election. So everyone was waiting for this Des Moines Register poll last night. Like, you know, 759, you could hear alarms going off or people waiting for this thing. And then this weird twist happened where apparently one of the men or women working in this call center increased the font size so that he or she could read it more

easily. And it cut Pete's name off the poll. And someone polled was quick enough to call the Buttigieg campaign and say, hey, I wasn't given as an option on this poll. And they reported it back. And before you know it, it's in the New York Times. And the poll is being pulled from CNN and the Des Moines Register. and it's just a mess. And look, personally, I feel really bad for the staff at the Des Moines Register because that's like the little engine that could newspaper. They do so much heroic work covering these caucuses, and this poll probably cost them a shitload of money. And Ann Salter, the pollster who does the poll, is the best in the business in terms of polling Iowa. So it stinks that this is, you know, going to be part of that legacy. But in some ways, maybe it's good for all of us baby pundits out here to just go caucus, go vote. Don't listen to a poll.

Yeah, I completely agree on that last point. Well, on both points. I mean, I did feel bad because it's like you said, like this is something that takes a lot of time and effort and money. But secondarily, it's like even releasing something this close just seems like an opportunity that's ripe for people to either take their foot off the gas or be disappointed. Totally. And then I'm just like, I don't really see the necessity in, you know, that having been out at that time. Yeah. I guess the lesson also is make sure you go to an optometrist and have a good prescription so you can read font sizes accordingly. LASIK people. Yeah.

So you've been spending a lot of time in Iowa this year, obviously, doing a show on it and last year. And I've been been struck by how indecisive some people remain even in the last few days and how committed they are to seeing candidates in person. I feel like I've spoken to a lot of people who have said they either plan to see everybody or have seen everybody at least once, and they're still sort of deciding. Um, but let's listen to some of what people in Iowa had to say over the last couple of days. I plan on caucusing for Bernie. And why are you excited about him? Well, it was hard this year. I came down to the two progressive candidates. And I guess I'm just hedging my bets.

I think that Joe Biden is probably the best person to do that and to beat Trump. We've got to be, Democrats have to beat Trump. And as a lifelong Republican, that really pains me. It pains me to say that because, you know, I disagree with a lot of Joe Biden's policies, but I think some things are bigger than our individual political positions. I've been looking at all the candidates. I was committed to Kamala Harris, so I've been kind of trying to find my new candidate.

And I've seen Warren a couple times, and I think I'm ready to make my final decision. And do you know who you're going to be supporting on that campaign? Yes, Pete Buttigieg. And what draws you to place? I was on the fence before I came tonight about who I was going to be caucusing for just because I wanted to kind of hear what he had to say before I made that decision. But he's so articulate and authentic, and I really appreciate the fact that his message

of not wanting to occupy the Oval Office but having a passion to lead people is his moral foundation. And so that's what sold me on him tonight. I'm a super liberal person, I would say. I'm super progressive, not only on economic issues, but on social issues too. And I think Bernie is the only candidate who is not like a center-right Democrat, but an actually progressive person. Well, to tell you the truth, they're all on the same track, I think more so than previous years. They're really strong on the environment, which is a priority for me. And I think they're going to be all strong on democracy, which is a new priority that's just emerged the last couple weeks. That was Peggy Gingrich, Christopher Jones, Karen Nub, Lucy Shigloth, Kelly, who was last name we did not get, Charles Clark, all in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. So lots of different ideas

about the candidates there and just different criteria for even making a decision that people don't necessarily think about when they're thinking about how people choose candidates. But as you've been hitting events and talking to people, anything surprising or notable that people don't necessarily think about when they're thinking about how people choose candidates. But as you've been hitting events and talking to people, anything surprising or notable that you've seen over the weekend? I think the elephant in the room for every conversation with every caucus goer is fear about Donald Trump getting reelected. And so in 2007 and 2008, people were more hopeful and optimistic about the future. George Bush was behind them, and they were willing to, say, take a chance on nominating the first African-American president of the United States. This year, it's just, it's punditry. People are scared to death.

They want to pick a winner, and they're terrified of getting it wrong. And so I think that's the overriding thing. The other thing I've noticed is that for all the conventional wisdom in Washington and New York and green rooms about like lanes, the progressive lane and the moderate lane, I've found that all to be nonsense. Voters are complicated. They have weird reasons for liking who they like. And who knows, maybe you like Bernie Sanders and your second choice is Biden or maybe it's Tulsi.

Like it's just people are more interesting and creative in their thinking that we give them credit for. And so, you know, on these last events, they're helpful, I think, to see who feels like they have momentum and they're getting big crowds and people seem excited because showing up to an event is a bit of a test case for getting people to show up on caucus night. Right. And you want exuberant people who are hitting doors on those last days. But you've probably noticed this. There are so many out-of-state people here right now. If you go to a candidate event in Des Moines, it's like half people from California. So you can never really tell.

It's like, it's all very anecdotal. Yeah, it's difficult. That's been one of the things I've found difficult in terms of the crowd size thing specifically is, you know, there are people like, I heard even people from like Australia. Yeah. I'm like, what? Like, I guess it's cool that you're here. But I'm like, what? I'm asking you, like, are you in a caucus? They're like, no, I live in Sydney. And I'm like, okay. Yeah. I mean, yeah, you gotta ask that. You gotta ask the where you from question first before having a great interview with the voter.

Yes, exactly. So as we were saying before, the results in Iowa don't inevitably determine much in terms of actual delegates. There are a lot of states yet to vote and a lot of delegates left to win. And it's all about creating this momentum and showing this viability, particularly this year when there is this overarching fear of like we need one person to just be the person that can beat Trump. And so what it turns out to be is that a lot of this has to do with whether the candidates win or they beat expectations. So let's talk a little bit about those expectations here. How do they get set? Is it a disadvantage to have high expectations going in? And do candidates try to lower expectations typically? And have

they been doing so this time? Oh my god, yeah. I mean, I would try desperately to spin reporters and to lower Obama's expectations all the time, with comical effect. I mean, David Yepsen, who's like the dean of the Iowa Press Corps, wrote for the Des Moines Register, you know, for decades. I remember an email he wrote back to me when I was trying to spin him that Hillary needed to beat Obama by 10. He said, I hope you didn't pull your back out writing that email because you're spinning so hard. So it's a constant process. I mean, Iowa's interesting because starting in 1972, lesser known candidates like George McGovern and then later Jimmy Carter were able to campaign in Iowa at the grassroots level without a lot of money, without a lot of national press attention, and with a surprisingly strong finish, garner much more attention going into the next contest. So Iowa can be a springboard for candidates, and it can also winnow the field down. If you don't

do well enough, you're going to be seen as a losing effort. You're not going to get money, and it can end your night right there. So that's the key. But yeah, the expectations management part is some ways the most ridiculous and infuriating. Sometimes it feels like Wall Street earnings expectations that no one ever explains to you who is setting the streets target for some dumb stock and why did it go up and down? I will never understand, which is why I don't gamble on that. Exactly. Yes, yes, yes. No, good, good lesson for the listener. So then what what are you specifically going to be watching for knowing that we know that and knowing, you know, that right now that the campaigns are either

doing the like, we'll see or like, we're extremely confident type thing? What are you going to be looking for? I mean, I think the question I have right now is how real is the Bernie Sanders momentum that we've seen? I think it's undeniable that he's gotten hot at the right time. I mean, the mantra in Iowa is organize, organize, organize, get hot late. If you get hot too early, your rivals take shots at you and you tend to come down to earth. Bernie's gotten hot at the right time. The question is, does he have the organization and infrastructure in place to capture that enthusiasm and turn those people into volunteers, voters, and delegates ultimately? And we just don't know. Now, in 2016, Bernie basically tied Hillary here. She just beat him. But if he'd organized just a little bit better in a few

precincts in Des Moines, he might have won. So I think they learned a lot of lessons from 16 and have tried to apply them. And what would it mean then as a follow to that, I guess, for him to win or for any of the top four candidates or any of the people that have been pulling the top four to win outright? I'm talking like first alignment and then delegates as well. I mean, I think if you know, if you see someone like Bernie Sanders win, and in terms of delegates and the popular vote, I think that's going to be seen as a pretty overwhelming win. And the question for him is, does that lead to more fundraising? Does that lead to more momentum and propel him into New Hampshire, where he is also doing well and lead to a commanding victory in New Hampshire?

Because once you rack up a couple wins in a row, that will put him in a very strong place to make a run at Joe Biden in South Carolina, where Biden does much better among African-American voters. Now, look, in 08, when Obama won Iowa, we thought we were going to springboard to New Hampshire, mop up Hillary that night and end the primary quickly. And it turned out to be the longest, most brutal primary process I could have ever imagined. So who knows how this is going to play out. Yeah, I think that's the right attitude to have for sure is the who knows, because that's certainly how I feel. And do you remember then, we were talking about your time here in 07, 08. Do you remember how you felt the last day going into the caucuses or the actual day of? You know, you're just when you've been doing this for a year, you're obsessing about one moment every minute of your life for an entire year of your life.

And then when it finally comes, you are so exhausted and strung out and anxious that it's just, you know, you just freak out for 24 hours. And then when we finally won, I mean, my last memory is being backstage with the senior staff in Iowa. It was probably like eight or ten of us. And Barack Obama and Michelle came and, you know, hugged the whole team and spoke to us and thanked us because winning Iowa for him, he's since said, was the most meaningful point of his political career,

better than winning the presidency even, because it was this big open question and test. And he felt like he was able to deliver on a promise of bringing new people into the electoral process and building this new coalition that then allowed him to win the White House twice. And so after that moment and spending time with Obama and Michelle, everything else is a blur, probably because I was drinking to great excess. And then I got on a very hungover flight to Chicago the next day to start working there. Nice.

So everybody can expect to feel and horrible, anxious, drink themselves to near oblivion. Well, that's awesome. Thank you so much. To hear more about Iowa, check out Pod Save America's newest episode later today and go deeper on the history of the Iowa caucuses and how we ended up with this crazy system on Tommy's five-part miniseries called On the Ground in Iowa. It's in the Pod Save America feed. Look it up. You will not be disappointed. Thank you again. Or kirk On the Ground in Iowa. It's in the Pod Save America feed. Look it up. You will not be disappointed. Thank you again. Or kirkgaard.com slash Iowa. Yeah, both right now. And now for some ads. Let's wrap up with some headlines. Headlines. injury toll has risen. That definitely includes the time President Trump said that no Americans have been harmed in this attack on a rocky basis. Groups like the Veterans of Foreign Wars are calling for Trump to apologize for those comments, saying he dismissed a very serious injury some

service members face. For their part, the Pentagon officials said the number continued to rise because traumatic brain injuries take some time to manifest. Officials also say that 39 of those who were injured have already returned to duty and 17 are scheduled to return to the U.S. An investigation published by the New York Times has revealed a culture of harassment and misogyny inside influential lingerie brand Victoria's Secret. Ed Razik, the former chief marketing officer of Victoria's Secret parent company L Brands, was the subject of numerous complaints. He allegedly tried to kiss models, sat them on his lap at Victoria's Secret fashion shows, and fired women who rebuffed him. Complaints about Razik were ignored by the founder of L Brands,

Leslie Wexner, a billionaire whose fortune was managed by, you guessed it, sex criminal Jeffrey Epstein. It's always Epstein. Epstein also reportedly used his connections to Victoria's Secret to bait women by pretending to be a recruiter for the brand. Lord. Disgusting. The FDA has approved the first drug for treating peanut allergies. That's exciting. The drug is called Palforzia. Why do they all sound like that? And it works by exposing the patient to a very small amount of peanut protein over six months or longer. Truly a drug inspired by my favorite mantra, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger by pharmaceutical industry legend, Kelly Clarkson. I'm reading this cold people. Palforzia has only been approved for children ages four to 17 and science and stress. It isn't

a cure for severe peanut allergies. It reduces risk of reactions, but should still be combined with peanut avoidance. That's still promising news for the 2.5% of children in the U.S. severe peanut allergies. It reduces risk of reactions, but should still be combined with peanut avoidance. That's still promising news for the 2.5% of children in the U.S. who still have the nut allergy. Still no comment, though, on why planters had planned to kill off Mr. Peanut in a Super Bowl ad. I find that disturbing. Yeah, and then they reversed it after the Kobe Bryant thing. Yeah, it's just very, very strange. I'm allergic to that. Yeah, I'm allergic to brands on Twitter. Yes, that's 100% true. I'm getting hives just talking about it.

Folks, whenever I need to reflect on my wild and crazy life, I just look at the tangled rat's nest of phone chargers I've acquired over many years of adventures. But that might not be an option anymore, at least not in the EU, because the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly last week to approve a resolution that would urge lawmakers to standardize phone charging cables. That is great. The resolution cited e-waste as the main reason for the switch, and it would likely push cell phone

companies to adopt USB-C as the cable du jour. Now, Apple would be the company most affected by a standard cable, since their mobile products use a proprietary lightning cable, which is really annoying. Unsurprisingly, they oppose the parliament's resolution and say it would stifle innovation. Innovation is a French word meaning very expensive cables. And those are the headlines. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, chill with us in Cedar Rapids and tell your friends to listen. By the way, if you're into reading and not just candidate issue pages on shark defense, like me, what a day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I can't stress

this enough. The what A Day newsletter is hilarious. It's awesome. I'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Gideon Resnick. And that's how you swing an undecided voter in Ames. Get out there. Go caucus. What A Day is a product of Crooked Media.

It's recorded and mixed by Charlotte Landis. Sonia Tun is our assistant producer. Our head writer is John Milstein, and our senior producer is Katie Long. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka.