What A Day - Leaky Projectors

Episode Date: May 5, 2020

A leaked government projection shows the US daily death toll from Covid-19 reaching 3,000 by June, which would almost double the current rate. Both the model's creator and the White House say that number shouldn’t be taken at face value. The FDA announced that companies selling antibody tests have to submit data that proves their accuracy within the next 10 days or face the possibility of getting removed from the market. And in headlines: a former VP at Amazon resigns over the company’s treatment of whistleblowers, Costco limits meats, and former Governor Matt Bevin predicts a Pulitzer prize.

It's Tuesday, May 5th. I'm Akilah Hughes. And I'm Gideon Restick, and this is What A Day, wishing you a very happy Cinco de Mayo. Yeah, it's not Mexican Independence Day. If I see you wearing a sombrero for any reason, you're going to catch some hands. I will come to your house. I will not come to your house. I promise. On today's show, goodbye J. Crew, hello Carnival Cruise, then some headlines. Oh, cute. You had some little rhymes there. They kind of, sort of rhyme. All right. Well, let's just get into the latest. We got some updates on reopening plans from a couple of the country's biggest states.

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that bookstores, music stores, florists and other retailers can reopen for pickup as early as Friday. The plan allows for decision making to take place at a local level, but requires that counties meet requirements for hospital beds, testing kits and contact tracing before moving any further ahead. Then in New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo listed seven requirements that regions around the state would have to meet before easing local restrictions similar to California. That includes testing, contact tracing, and hospitalization thresholds. Currently, New York City is only meeting three of the requirements, so it could be one of the last places to start returning to some sort of new normal. All right. Well, we also have some news to get into on projections for COVID-19 cases in the next month. So let's get into that. Yeah. So one of the big headlines from yesterday was

this draft government report that the New York Times obtained that showed that the daily death toll in the United States from COVID-19 was projected to reach about 3,000 on June 1st, which is obviously insane. And that's almost double the current number of about 1,750. So these are just draft projections. And they showed about 200,000 new cases every day by the end of this month. Currently, we're seeing around 25,000 a day. So that is quite a bit higher. But the important context here, according to the Washington Post, the creator of the model said that the modeling wasn't complete, and that it included a wide range of possibilities. He said it was, quote, not in any way intended to be a forecast. But he did say that there are reopening scenarios

that could make things quite bad. The White House said that those leaked projections hadn't been vetted, and others said that it was unclear what assumptions were made in the actual course of making the model. For instance, does it account for more testing, reopenings, changes in human behavior, etc.? Yeah. All right. Well, that's the leaked projection. Then there are all these public models that some of us have seen on our Twitter feeds. One of them from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington revised their numbers to yesterday. Yes, and not in the right direction.

That's the IMHE model, which, you know, if you've been following the modelers closely is one that you may have heard of. It's often cited by the White House, but it has critics as well among the scientific community. They are now estimating that there will be nearly 135,000 deaths in the U.S. It's often cited by the White House, but it has critics as well among the scientific community. They are now estimating that there will be nearly 135,000 deaths in the U.S. through the beginning of August. Again, terrible number. That's more than double what they had forecast in mid-April. The Institute specifically cited, when they put this out, quote, rising mobility and, quote, the easing of social distancing measures.

So that gives us two models that are pointing in the direction of more cases and more deaths. Whether they prove to be accurate or not, the current reality is this. According to estimates over the past month, at least 1,000 people with the virus have died every day. And even while there have been big improvements in major cities like Detroit, New Orleans, and New York, there are other urban areas showing steady growth, and rural areas are also seeing increases, particularly in and around meat processing plants and prisons. So if you add all of it up nationally, things have plateaued more than they've dramatically decreased since we started social distancing and sheltering in place. Yeah, that's a, I mean, a real drag because we were really close and people just cannot stay home. They just can't do it. All right. Well, there was also some news on antibody tests.

We've talked about how they've had reliability problems, but the FDA is looking into fixing that. All right. So take us through what they're doing. Yeah. So the FDA announced that companies that are selling antibody tests have to submit data that proves their accuracy within the next 10 days or face the possibility of being removed from the market. This is a big reversal from what the FDA had done in March, which was essentially allow these companies to start selling the tests so long as they told the FDA that they were doing so, giving them a warning, hey, just letting you know, and put disclaimers on them saying that they weren't FDA approved. So at that time, the argument was the FDA was in emergency mode and was basically trying to fast track these tests to market, presumably so they

wouldn't be blamed for slowing things down like they did with the diagnostic tests. And that left a lot of junk on the market. For example, a group of scientists looked at around 14 antibody tests and found that only three were giving reliable results and the best ones were still having some issues. It's important to note that there are a handful of FDA authorized antibody tests out there, including ones from established companies like Roche and Abbott. That's a bit on testing news in the United States, but Akilah, what else do we got for today? All right, a couple business stories. So Carnival Cruise Line, the largest cruise company in the world, says that it plans to restart cruises in August. Gross. Apparently, they missed the multitude of ships, including theirs,

that were stranded and filled with COVID-19 or I don't know, they just don't care. My bet's on the latter. The chairman of the House Committee on Transportation, Peter Fazio, wrote to the CEO that the Miami-based company is not emphasizing, quote, public health and passenger safety. Putting it kind of lightly, but sure, Carnival's really just giving their customers a fast pass to the grave. Like, be specific. By the way, that House committee is also now investigating Carnival's response to the pandemic, and the CDC says it's monitoring the situation, so good luck, Carnival.

And it's a sad day for people who like sensible striped tops and jeans that actually fit a person's body. J.Crew is the first major retailer to declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. J.Crew also owns the very popular brand Madewell, so I'm going to be refreshing their page, hoping for a deep discount on their sandals. They're really good. The company says it will stay operational through the bankruptcy.

According to the Washington Post, Neiman Marcus and JCPenney are now low on funds and are also considering similar action. But it's not just the coronavirus. All right. Like this has been a trend for a while. Right. Online shopping has led to what lots of people call the retail apocalypse, with physical store locations and malls closing nationwide. Now, as more and more mall staples are currently shuttered, perhaps the space could be turned into overflow hospitals until the crisis is over. I don't know.

Yeah, just spitballing. So that's the U.S. What's happening worldwide? All right. So in countries that actually tested and stayed home, there's a sense that they are on the other side of the curve. So two such countries are New Zealand and Australia, where new daily COVID-19 cases are in the single digits. The countries are known as major tourist destinations. Fun fact, tourism is the biggest industry in New Zealand. But since that industry is in ruin, they're considering opening a so-called travel bubble.

So basically, they're deciding when they can open up travel between their two nations. Geographically, I often really think about them being really close together, but there's actually 1,200 miles of sea between them. Fun fact. Lots of fun facts in this part. The flight length is similar to a trip from New York to LA.

And the earliest possible time for this bubble to begin is August, which is the beginning of the ski season in New Zealand. And currently the two countries have a 14-day mandatory quarantine for anyone who arrives internationally. And there are still domestic travel restrictions. So I guess we'll see. And that's the latest. It's Tuesday, WOD Squad. How you doing?

You know, I think we're doing all right, but to make sure we're checking in. All right, the Pulitzer Prize winners were announced yesterday. It's awesome. Giddy, what was your favorite Pulitzer Prize winning project? Oh, I am not well read on the ones that won, I have to admit. But I would probably say the Colson Whitehead book is definitely one I've been looking forward to for a long time. Red Underground Railroad. And that was really, really great. And he just is like, seems like basically anything he does is is awesome so

um yeah that's my defective one it twice and he won it twice yeah which is crazy it was like there was something that was like i'm gonna fuck this up for sure but it was like william falconer and like one other person and colson whitehead and it's like holy shit that's really incredible um yeah living legends yeah but how about you uh okay so for me I obviously was super excited for the 1619 project not only because it was like just such a phenomenon and like you know a history that is so just skirted over but there was also all of the backlash to it um especially in like the South and from right wing Fox News types. And so it's just like sticking it to them is great.

But also A Strange Loop, which is a play that my friend, it's a musical that my friend was in. It's actually based on the same like original text as Russian Doll. So I'm a big fan. It won. And I just think that's so great. And my friend Larry, who was the lead was so excited. So shout out to Larry Owens, check out his podcast. But yeah, Larry is not a friend of

mine, but I'm an admirer. So I hope to one day be a friend of his. He is so desperately talented. It's unbelievable. He also won like some other award earlier this week. He's like favored to win an off Broadway Tony award thing. So it's like, cool. It's killing it. Honestly, we have something for the rest of us, quite frankly. Right. And guess what, guys? Our temperatures have been checked. Check in with all your friends.

Maybe write them a Pulitzer Prize winning letter. And, you know, stay healthy and safe. We're going to check in on you all tomorrow. Let's wrap up with some headlines. Headlines. A prominent vice president and senior engineer at Amazon quit his job last week, citing the company's firing of several whistleblowers. Tim Bray, who had worked at Amazon for over five years, called the company, quote, chicken shit. And a letter posted to his website yesterday for firing employees who raised awareness about workplace safety during the pandemic.

He referred to Christian Smalls, the Staten Island worker who was fired after leading a protest for more worker protections, and two others who were fired after calling for Amazon to expand sick leave and hazard pay last month. Bray's comments made him the highest level employee or former employee to speak out about Amazon's mistreatment of its warehouse workers. Chicken shit is such a sick way to go out on. Shout out to that guy. Irish people have been sending donations en masse to fund relief efforts for the Navajo and Hopi nations. A GoFundMe to provide aid to families struggling with a spike in COVID-19 cases on their reservations has raised over $1.5 million. Many of the donations are flooding in from Irish people who feel they are returning a historical favor. In 1847, while Ireland was suffering through the

Great Hunger Famine, the Choctaw people in America sent $170 19th century dollars to aid the Irish. Flash forward 173 years to now, and people across Ireland are sending money back in an act of solidarity to their friends across the globe. It's beautiful. We love to see it. Costco will begin limiting the amount of meat customers can buy at one time. They'll let you walk out with three items from the fresh meat, pork and poultry category, which based on the sizes they have at Costco should get you the equivalent of approximately three pigs. Costco's limits are a response to COVID-19 outbreaks in slaughterhouses across the country, which have led to slowed down meat production that's been aggravated by plant closures. You'll probably still be able to get all the meat you need unless you are feeding a family of bears or one very large dragon. I'm going to have an angry

family of bears on my hands tonight when I tell them the news. Among the Pulitzer Prizes given out yesterday was one for the staff of the Courier-Journal out of Kentucky for coverage of the 400-plus pardons issued by their former governor, Matt Bevin, during his last weeks in office. The journalist exposed what looked like political former governor, Matt Bevin, during his last weeks in office. The journalist exposed what looked like political bias, guiding some of Bevin's selections, which included a man convicted of murder, whose brother hosted a Bevin fundraiser,

and which drew criticism from legislators on both sides of the aisle. If there's anyone who saw this award coming, it's Matt Bevin himself, who said this about the pardons on December 15th, 2019, quote, pick the two of three or five that you find to be the most sensational and dig deep, deep, deep into them. And if it's done right, I'm telling you, you could win a Pulitzer Prize. It seems like Bevin thought the investigations would exonerate him. So the Pulitzer would be for making him look like a very handsome and intelligent governor. Just for having that thought, he should get a prize in the category of most delusional maniac.

Well earned. And those are the headlines. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave us a review, give us a Pulitzer Prize and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not sure you subscribe, leave us a review, give us a Pulitzer Prize, and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just bus bench ads for genes like me, what a day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at cricket.com slash subscribe. I'm Akilah Hughes. I'm Gideon Resnick. And good luck feeding all your bears.

You're going to have to some way or they're going to eat you, my friend. What a day is a product of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Charlotte Landis. Sonia Tun is our assistant producer. Our head writer is John Milstein and our senior producer is Katie Long. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka.