What A Day - Sen. Schatz Is Cautiously Optimistic Ahead of Midterms

Episode Date: October 23, 2026

As we know, the Trump administration is working hard to compromise the integrity of the upcoming midterm elections. So on today's episode, Jane speaks with Hawaii Democratic Senator Brian Schatz about how he's staying vigilant, his Election Day expectations, and the importance of voting.Show Notes: Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail]

I'm going to be vigilant. I'm going to be totally paranoid. There's a whole network of people who are ready for whatever the contingencies are, but I also don't want to speak it into existence. I also don't want to speak it into existence. Well, I don't know that we've ever met, but we're clearly at the exact same level of paranoia. It's Friday, October 23rd. I'm Jane Koston, and this is what a day. President Donald Trump discussed the war in Iran outside the White House today and how the war Remember when it wasn't a war? It could be over, but it isn't for reasons.

We can end it very quickly, but Iran is a failing nation. And we're taking all the oil out that we want. You see that with the hormone strait, our Navy. We have it blocked up for them, but nobody else. And everybody is taking oil out. In fact, last week we took more oil out than we have ever taken it out even before the war. So that was a big sticking point. So we have that.

And they have inflation. They have no money. You know, the question is, do we want to finish it off or do we just want to let it wither? You know who else has inflation and no money? Anyway, the price of oil hit more than $117 per barrel today, according to the Guardian. The highest it's been since April. That bad news came with even more bad news. Iran threatened to attack airports, pipelines, and other civilian infrastructure in nearby countries.

if the U.S. and Israel resume their strikes in the country, which they probably will. First Lady and noted peacekeeper Melania Trump has brokered an upcoming ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the war-ravaged Ukrainian city of Alushki. The pause in fighting will allow for humanitarian aid in the evacuation of the city's remaining population of primarily elderly residents. The White House issued a press release today that said Melania Trump had initiated the discussions and that she and a repatriationation. worked directly with Russian and Ukrainian leadership to define the terms of the ceasefire. In the statement, the First Lady said, quote, it was abundantly clear that without my intervention, the possibility to bring humanitarian aid into the city and to evacuate the elderly would be impossible. As we've all been saying, it's time to let Melania Trump end the Ukrainian-Russian war.

Sure. As we know, the Trump administration is working hard to compromise the integrity, of the upcoming midterm elections. Today, it filed a lawsuit to block certification of the Senate race in Alaska if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses the contest. Why? Because there's another candidate with the same name on the ballot. The Alaska Supreme Court rejected a previous Republican effort to remove Daniel J. Sullivan,

who said he decided to run on his own. But Republicans have contended he is a Democratic plan to siphon votes away from their candidate, and that would be terrible. So terrible. Many in both parties believe the fight over control of the Senate could come down to Alaska. Senator Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former Congresswoman. Also, the United States Supreme Court allowed New Hampshire to ban people from using student IDs to vote in the midterms. Only 14 states have banned the use of student IDs for voting.

Let's think about that for a minute. You can't use your student ID to vote in 14 states. And now New Hampshire is one of them. I wonder why. Hmm. But I want to talk about the Senate. And what a blue Senate, I hope, I really, really, really hope might do in 2027. Joining me is Hawaii Democratic Senator Brian Schatz. Senator Schatz, thank you so much for joining me. I'm happy to be here. I love your show. Oh, great. That's awesome. Thank you. So to start, how are you feeling about the midterms right now and chances that Democrats do win the Senate? I mean, I'm nervous, but, you know, all the indicators are positive, right? The polling is okay.

The vibes are quite good. And, you know, we're mobilizing. I think now we have a new problem that we didn't anticipate, which is we really didn't expect to be competitive in, for instance, South Carolina, Mississippi, you know, Kansas, all these states that, you know, we're pretty red over the last decade. and as a result of being newly competitive in all these states, we now have a bit of a money crunch, so it's been a scramble over the last several weeks to make sure that,

you know, we can kind of fill all the lanes. Tala Rico's doing great. Obviously, Hamilton's doing great. We feel very good about North Carolina and Georgia, knock on wood. We've got to protect our democratic seats like New Hampshire and Michigan. But I'm feeling optimistic. On the other hand, I sort of don't trust happiness. So I never trust happiness.

I'm not sure what to expect other than to say this is as optimistic as I can feel because I'm only capable of contemplating negative outcomes at this stage. Yes, because you're a Democrat. That's how we are. Because I'm a Democrat and yes. So you have said that, Lord willing, if Democrats do take the Senate, job one should be ending the war in Iran. How? Well, I think we have a number of tools, but the main two tools are the authorization of the Defense Department and the appropriations for the Defense Department. There is an annual bill called the National Defense Authorization. We always pass it. It's always bipartisan.

I think it's been 50 years, and we've always done it on a bipartisan basis by the end of the calendar year. It's a sort of proud tradition in the Congress. but my view is that, you know, we're just going to have to use the National Defense authorization to exert some pressure on the Defense Department because I, for one, and I've usually voted for the National Defense authorization, can't vote to authorize the Defense Department. And then they tell me, don't worry, you're not really voting for the war, you're just voting for all of the things that go into the war. And then likewise, on the defense spending side, look, I come from the state of Hawaii, and we have a sort of doveish view.

view about foreign policy, but a hawkish view about defense spending for understandable reasons in the great tradition of Daniel K. Inouye and Daniel K. Akaka. And so I'm not adverse to voting for a defense spending bill, but I'm not going to pretend that if we vote for a defense bill that contains all the armaments and all of the backfill of all the munitions and all the things that we expended in this Iran war, that we're not actually funding the Iran war. So my conversations with my Republican colleagues have been really straightforward. If this war comes to a conclusion, you will see cooperation on defense authorization and on defense spending. If it does not, then I don't think you should anticipate our cooperation.

So I think that thinking about the theoretical, if the Lord Wills it, chance that Democrats take the Senate, you've said that even if that happens, it's a first date. It's not a marriage. What do Democrats need to do to keep the voters who will have supported them into the majority in the long run? Well, I think the first thing we should do to sort of use the relationship analogy maybe like over the edge and into a kind of weird space is we should just try radical honesty, right? We should try to tell them, look, I know what we need to do. and we're not going to be able to enact all of our favorite policies until this guy is gone. And so let me tell you what we think we can do in the next two years.

And that's not a question of being insufficiently bold. It's actually trusting the voters in a partnership in building a movement. Like I don't know when it became pure of heart to promise people things that are definitely not going to happen. And I was watching Rob Sand, who I think I've met a long, long, time ago, but I don't know him very well in Iowa. And like, he spends a fair amount of time at his town halls talking about what can't be done. And you would think that that sort of is deflating, but it's actually the opposite because people are so sick of being promised everything and being given nothing that they find it refreshing for a politician to say, here's what I can't do and here's what

I can do. And that's why I think we should focus rather narrowly on bringing the war to a conclusion, trying to reverse the Medicaid and the snap cuts, and then, of course, oversight and accountability on corruption, and then stopping bad cabinet officials and judiciary nominees from getting confirmed. That's a good use of our congressional power, but promising that we're going to get universal health care while Donald John Trump is president is just disrespecting our own voters.

I think progressives, including, you know, you sort of think this is some sort of center-left position, the people are most pissed about being lied to are the hard left, right? Because they get promised everything and get given nothing. And I think if you said, look, we've got a 10-year plan to make all of the changes that we think, or many of the changes that we think are necessary societally, but we have to accumulate power in the federal government in order to effectuate that. I think people would be in on the plan.

But right now, it's just you either promise everything or you're one of those centrists that says none of this can be done. And I think the truth is actually absolutely in between that, which is we can get all of this done. We just can't get it done in one month. Right. And especially with Trump as still the president, because he could veto anything and let funding lapse. How would a Democratic Senate, if the Lord wills it, and I will keep saying that because I am afraid and skeptical and anxious, how would they use the power of the purse without owning a government shutdown? When you have the pen, which is to say when you are in charge of the committee and you actually do the writing of the bills. It doesn't mean you don't

have to negotiate with the other side, but you get to take the first cut at the first draft. We intend to write legislation on spending that restricts the flexibility of Russ Vaught and the White House from sort of ignoring us. Now, some of what they did in the last two years was flatly illegal, and we were able to cite statutory law to reverse. what they did. But frankly, some of it was using flexibility that has always been in the law that nobody anticipated would be abused. And so when we negotiated for appropriations bills, we tried to move as much in that direction of restricting their flexibility as we could. But we didn't get as far as we wanted to because they were in charge of the committees. I've talked to Patty Murray, who if

if everything goes well would be the chair of the Appropriations Committee. And I know that is her number one priority. I've been in the executive branch in the Hawaii State government. I don't even mind providing the executive branch with flexibility, but they've clearly shown a desire to misuse that flexibility. And so I think we're going to have to take away that flexibility as a matter of statutory law. So let's back up to where anxious people like ourselves like to stay, which is before we even get results. What are you looking for on election day specifically? Because I know

the Trump administration has made it known that they are seemingly willing to do anything and everything to make it harder for people to vote and to question the votes that people do submit. So are you looking at federal agents near polling places, Justice Department interference with state officials, machine or ballot seizures, delayed counts? Like, what are you thinking? There's a difference between being ready for all of those things and predicting all of those things. We are ready for all of those things. There is a network of people to include elected officials, but not exclusively us, litigators, organizers, and volunteers and others that are ready for anything from like the kinetic

blocking of people's access to the voting process to malfeasance on the street to either before, during, or after the election process, to try to undermine the certification or the proper counting. So I feel like we are ready. And one thing I can assure people is we will not have a failure of imagination. We are ready for the absolute worst case scenario. But I want to be clear, I am not predicting the worst case scenario because I think what they love to do is to kill fight, right? They want everybody to believe that there's no point to it, that they are all powerful, and that you might as well not vote. And I think that as long as P... And I've watched my friend John Ossoff talk about that, especially in the state of Georgia, where there's a determination,

there's a seriousness of purpose. There is not a waving away of, oh, that's such a, you know, shrill concern. These are real concerns. They really could do it. They have demonstrated a willingness to do it. But on the other hand, we also... have to operate as though we are a democracy and the power still resides with the people. So the best remedy to all that is let us organize, let us litigate, let us raise funds for all those contingencies. What a regular person, what a listener or watcher of your show should do is just get out there and vote because that will overcome most of the nonsense. We'll get back to my conversation with Hawaii Democratic Senator Brian Schatz in just a moment.

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How is that going? I mean, there's two ways to look at it. First, a lot of people are still in a lot of economic pain. The other way to look at it, which is also true is that, you know, somewhere between 2,000, 2,500 structures were destroyed. And everybody has housing of some sort. So some people have actually pulled a building permit to rebuild on their original land. Some people have completed that process.

Some people are living in temporary housing that's been constructed by FEMA or the state government. And some people have relocated and are still receiving a subsidy. So if you had told me that we'd be about halfway towards recovery by now, there's, again, two ways to look at it. Absolutely not fast enough, lots of suffering. but compared to other places that have experienced a similar kind of tragic natural disaster, I thought we pulled together quite well and state, county, federal government, had a nice partnership. You know, when Biden was there and even when Trump was there, we've been able to do this on a kind of nonpartisan community-based level.

So, again, I'm not trying to, there's no victory lapse while people are still not in their homes. but progress continues at a pace that I think allows me to remain hopeful. Yeah, and something you helped to get through $1.6 billion in a part of a massive spending bill. It was the largest such allocation ever awarded to a local government with regard to recovery. And that's something you mentioned, happened under Biden. Has HUD under Trump been a good partner in administering that money? Yes. Okay.

Yes. I'm looking at your face. Yeah. I mean, look, the Secretary of HUD and I have had multiple conversations. There have been no tricks or traps. It's not that we're always in agreement. It's not that politics never bears, you know, rears its ugly head. But we have been pretty solid in terms of working with whatever administration there is,

Department of Homeland Security and FEMA and HUD. the Department of Transportation. And like we've just set aside our differences. And I like to sort of point out it is it's not bipartisan. It's nonpartisan. And we sort of took that tone from the jump. And so far so good. It's not that I, you know, only the paranoid survive.

So I've always got my head sort of looking out for those kinds of bad actors or bad actions. But so far, the partnership has been really constructive. Yeah. And it was interesting because Hawaii, because terrible things keep happening, was hit by two hurricanes this year. And Trump approved major disaster declarations on October 8th with FEMA covering at least 75 percent, but only public assistance. You thanked Trump for participating in that. But more recently, Trump has, and I'm not going to say joked, because I don't think anything he does is ever really a joke unless he decides that it needs to be a joke.

he's talked about withholding aid in different states from disasters if Democrats win in those areas. He talked about that with North Carolina. Vance promised more than $800 million in rescue funds for Western North Carolina. But if Republicans were to win, there have been repeated pieces about how Trump is tying endorsements to getting to disaster relief approvals. So how are you thinking about talking about that? Like, does that worry you about the remaining money? Maui needs to recover? Well, how are you thinking about the way that the administration keeps using disaster relief as a carrot to get people to vote for them? Well, I think it's appalling. And I think you're right that we should assume that he means it.

But I will just say that our specific experience has not been consistent with that. Not that it's not happening, not that it's not appalling. but as it relates to, you know, our disaster recoveries from a very rough hurricane season this year and the Lahaina wildfire and even some other volcanic eruptions and the Kona Lows. And, you know, we've just had a rough three or four years. We just haven't seen evidence of that. But, you know, I'll be vigilant about it. So Trump has not ruled out using emergency powers around the election because he doesn't rule out anything ever.

If he tried to do that, what would you do as a senator? Well, I think it's, I don't want to sort of telegraph all of it except to say we've done a number of tabletop exercises, both with United States senators and also the sort of litigation teams, the organizing teams, the funders. And so like I said, we are ready for any contingency. What Todd Blanche said, I guess it was yesterday or the day before, was, you know, similar to the way Trump talks about it. but he's basically said, I do not anticipate, you know, challenging the election certification process. But of course, a doomsday scenario could occur and we reserve our rights. My instinct is that's Todd Blanche's way of trying not to interfere with the election, but trying not to piss off Trump. But I don't know Trump world, and I don't know, you know, sort of whether they're having meetings right now.

What I will say is that, you know, we're, I think, less than two weeks from the election. And by the time the sort of January 6th, you know, the Biden win and the January 6th issue happened, like two weeks prior to the election, he was already laying much more of a predicate for messing around with the elections. So I'm going to be vigilant. I'm going to be totally paranoid. There's a whole network of people who are ready for whatever the contingencies are. but I also don't want to speak it into existence. I also don't want to speak it into existence. Thinking about...

Well, I don't know that we've ever met, but we're clearly at the exact same level of paranoia. It's the correct level to be at. We are, I don't know if you're more or less, you're not, you're not, you know, if you're more, I'm worried about you, but if you're less, I'm also worried about you. So... No, we're like at an eight, I think. Yes, just stick to eight.

That seems safe for everyone. Is there anything else that you've been thinking about with, regard to this election that's surprising to you. I think that for me personally, it's been interesting to see how Trump has long governed and acted as if normal events don't apply to him. And yet you're seeing with gas prices or the war in Iran or just, you know, if this happened to any other president, like I remember 2006 pretty well, it'd be pretty clear that you could not expect to hold on at least the house. But it's interesting to see gravity begin to truly apply to Trump when I think in his view it hasn't for what 10 years?

Yeah, it's a couple, couple of thoughts. First, I agree. I think, you know, part of it is he's been in our lives as a politician now for quite a while. And so I think the veneer of like not a politician, not a career guy. Guy in Home Alone too. Like, yeah. Yeah, like just an entertainer. Don't take him serious.

So I think part of it is now people are viewing him with the same skepticism that they would view any other. President of the United States, which is like maybe he's full of shit, and at least I should examine what he's saying. That's number one. Number two is, like you say, events, you know, events. I think about some of the districts and counties and swing areas that went against us. And, you know, there was an 80-year-old president who had difficulty explaining his theory of the economic case and prices were too high. And so they swung against us. And then now there's an 80-year-old president and prices are too high and he can't explain himself. And so one of the things that I think is true about politicians generally is they have main character syndrome

where they think that it's not events that swung, you know, some county in Pennsylvania or northern Virginia away from us and then back to us. It's actually the way we talked about it. It was my framing. It was my strategy. It was my direct-to-camera internet stuff. it's events, man. Like, diesel is 650 and there's no way to spin it, right?

And by the way, diesel is 650 nationally, but it's $9.50 in California, right? And, like, gasoline, diesel, the price of eggs, like, there's no spinning that. And so I just think that's a really important lesson for Democrats to remember, which is that, like, ultimately people do vote on their personal circumstances and not how you describe their circumstances to them. So I have to ask one last question about a potential, maybe possible, perhaps blue Senate, if Democrats were to take the Senate, if the Lord wills it and the Creek don't rise. Would you vote for Chuck Schumer for a leader? I will.

And I know that's the subject of controversy and discussion. But I guess what I would say is two things. first of all, we are less than two weeks from an election. And it's sort of like asking a basketball player, like, hey, do you think this is the right head coach, like heading into the fourth quarter? Like, I don't know, man. Can we just play the game? But, you know, I've had a good partnership with him. I think he's done a good job of recruiting.

I know he's become a lightning rod. My own judgment is that part of the reason he was a lightning rod over the last two years is, like, people don't like getting their ass kicked. And because they took the trifecta, we were getting our asses kicked. And so he became a lightning rod for that. But look, that fight is for after the election. And a lot of it is moot unless we win this damn thing. Senator Schatz, thank you so much for joining me. Thank you. Appreciate it. That was my conversation with Hawaii Democratic Senator Brian Schatz. Before we go, Long Play, Crooked's limited series about the ever-changing political and of the American South is back on the air.

Last season on Long Play, host Jennifer Palmieri, and award-winning journalist Aaron Haynes, introduced us to the battleground states in the South that could define this mid-term election. And as tensions rise within Trump's coalition and Republicans back out of frontline districts across the country, they decided it was time to get back on the road to report firsthand on the unlikely swing states

Democrats need to win back the South. Whether you heard the first season or are new to the show, it's a must listen for understanding this rapidly evolving race. subscribe to Longplay on YouTube or wherever get your podcasts. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review. Donald Trump is bored and everyone knows it and tell your friends to listen. And if you are under reading, and not just about how last night LeBron James had the proper response to Trump taking time out of his busy schedule to complain about the NBA legend as best as I can tell, waving his arms during the national anthem?

Unrelated to the game, how do you feel again that Trump tried to take shots of you? And it's beach tonight while you were playing as well as on time. Yeah, it's a slow news day at the office, you know. Slow news day in the office. Like me, Whataday is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane Koston. And seriously, is Trump the most bored person who actually shouldn't be this board to ever live?

Whataday is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Emily 4, Erica Morrison, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Adam Lippert, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had helped today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers' Guild of America East. Long play, our docu-series exploring the people and forces shaping the South is back. Newsflash, the South is the new political epicenter of the country.

Democrats are way on their heels in this region, but Republicans are going through their own in the South too. We're in the final stretch of the midterms and the political map has only gotten more competitive with new states and districts emerging as potential flips. So we thought it was time to get back out on the road and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ground. I'm Aaron Haynes, journalist and expert on all things Southern politics. And I'm Jennifer Palmary, former White House Communications Director. Tune in on Mondays to Longplay Series on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.