What A Day - The College Dropoff

Episode Date: July 1, 2026

July 1 is the start of big changes for colleges, universities and you – if you have student loans. Because of last year’s ugly Republican One Big Beautiful Law, there are new caps on student loans for graduate and professional programs, as well as for undergraduate students. And if you were enrolled in a Biden-era student loan plan known as Saving on a Valuable Education or SAVE, you need to look for other repayment options — because the Trump administration is ending that program. To learn more about what’s shaping the biggest changes impacting higher education, we spoke with Senior Higher Education Reporter for The Hechinger Report, Jon Marcus.And in headlines: the House of Representatives is once again a big, fat, failure; President Donald Trump took a ride in his new Qatari "Bribe Force One"; and will Trump's July 4th celebrations include 250 pardons for 250 years?Show Notes: Check out Jon's work – hechingerreport.org/author/jon-marcus/ Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

Not everybody needs to go to college is the short answer to your question, but somebody needs to go to college. AI can't do all the jobs. I'm Jane Koston, and this is Wadaday, the show that believes in love. Except when that love leads to influencers illegally climbing to the very top of the Empire State Building and proposing marriage. Here's Fox News. New York City specifically has an anti-climing ordinance, by the way. You can't climb a building over 50 feet high. That is a misdemeanor punishable by up to one year in jail.

plus a fine disorderly con- Oh, for God's sake. Great, well, they can consummate the marriage in jail. Look, my opposition is not about love. It's about heights. Namely, I don't like them. On today's show, we discuss how the Trump administration is making college more expensive with John Marcus,

higher education editor for the Heckenger report. Before we get into all that, here's what we're following today, Wednesday, July 1st. So we're very proud of this. The country is very proud of it. And you can do two things. You can lo-key it or you can show it. And I think the country should be very proud of it.

Ah, yes. As an American getting ready to celebrate the 250th anniversary of our country, the thing I am most proud of. The retrofitted Boeing 747 worth $400 million gifted to President Donald Trump by Cutter. And Trump got to take his first ever trip on the new Air Force One today. He flew to North Dakota to see the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library. ahead of its opening on Saturday. Gone is the trademark light blue hull that helped Air Force One blend into the sky.

The refurbished jet is painted to Trump's preferred color scheme of a navy belly and red and gold stripes. Like I said, I'm so proud. Trump has had a lot planned for America's 250th birthday. There's the Great American State Fair that's empty. There's the gilding of everything within his line of sight. And now the Atlantic is reporting the White House is considering, quote, quote, 250 pardons for 250 years. The idea had not been put in front of Trump as a Friday, and a White House official told the Atlantic it may never reach the president. But doesn't it

sound exactly like something Trump would do? Say goodbye to the House of Representatives, which is headed home for a nearly two-week recess after House Republican leaders got absolutely nothing done. Again. All of this stems from President Trump's obsession with the Save America Act, which would radically change federal election law. Last week, Trump scuttled a signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing bill, saying that he wouldn't sign it until he got the Save Act on his desk. And his allies in the House were listening, making it impossible to get votes on anything else, including defense spending.

Speaker Mike Johnson tried to get around this problem by attaching the Save Act to a massive defense spending bill. But that led to that bill getting voted down by Democrats who don't want to pass a Save Act, and Republicans who do want to pass a Save Act, but not like that. So now everyone's headed home for the holiday weekend and more, furious and having done nothing. Once again, Mike Johnson has the worst job in America. It sure seems like we're in a progressive blue wave. Democratic socialist Malak Kuros beat Representative Diana DeGette in a Colorado House primary on Tuesday. A stunning victory for the first-time candidate against a nearly

30-year incumbent and another win for progressive challengers across the country. At 29 years old, Kuros will also become the first Gen Z woman elected to Congress if she wins in November. To put a finer point on it, Kuros was born the same year to get was first elected to the House. And that's the news. Let's talk about college. It's summer break, but today is a start of big changes for colleges, universities, and you, if you have student loans. Because of last year's big Republican spending law debacle disaster adventure, also known as the one big beautiful law, there are new caps on student loans for graduate and professional programs, as well as undergrad

students. And if you were enrolled in a Biden-era student loan plan known as saving on a valuable education or save, you need to look for other repayment options because the Trump administration is ending that program. That's the micro of the situation facing colleges and universities right now. The macro? The world of higher education is changing rapidly. As many colleges and universities are raising their sticker price, others are closing their doors. So to learn more about what's shaping the biggest changes impacting higher education, I spoke to John Marcus. He's senior higher education reporter and editor for the Heckenger report. John, welcome to what today. Thank you for having me. Now, somehow, and I say this, having gone to college like 15, 16 years ago, I'm thinking it was

really expensive then. Going to college is now even more expensive. And paying those costs, is going to look different. I know I got an email from the Department of Education about my student loan rates. As of today, the Trump administration's new student loan policies are officially in effect. Can you quickly walk us through the biggest changes? Yes, that's correct. So the biggest changes are for about the seven and a half million Americans who are under what's called the Save Program. That was instated during the Biden administration to help people who might otherwise not be able to afford to repay their college loans. Beginning today, they are going to have to move to a different plan.

That could cost them a lot of money depending on what plan they choose. So it's really important that people pay attention to this process. They have 90 days. They should hear also from the department beginning today. And they'll have a choice of a new plan that is likely to cost them a little bit more. But unless they pay very close attention, it could possibly cost them a great. a deal more. Why? Like, why, one, why was this change made? And why will it cost them a lot more if they, if they don't pay attention? Why is a harder question? So let me start with the other question.

The sort of portfolio of student loan programs that we have is there are a lot of different programs. They are kind of duplicative. There was some legal challenges to the save plan from state attorneys general because essentially it meant that taxpayers were filling the gap between what low-income borrowers were able to repay and what the save plan sort of limited. You were limited to repaying only 5% of your income. So it was connected to your income. The new plans are also connected to your income, but they won't be quite that generous. And it also won't be possible for you to get your debt discharged as easily.

under the safe plan you could get your debt discharges potentially after 10 years. Now it will be 30 years. That's among the changes that people are going to face. But the most important thing is that they pay attention. There are early indications that loan servicers are having trouble keeping up with all the questions that they're getting, having trouble answering them accurately. There is a helpful sort of tool on the Department of Education website at studentaid.gov. It's a loan simulator.

you can type how much you owe and it will give you the options of various plans that you can pick. But it is really important that people pick them by the deadline at the end of September or else they'll be put into another plan arbitrarily. You said that why these changes were made is a harder question. Do you have an answer? Yeah. Again, there were legal challenges to this proposal. There are people who argue that once people borrow as would, be the case if you borrow to buy a house or buy a car or on your credit card, you have to repay it. You've assumed this debt with the intention of repaying it. So allowing people to defer that debt, to pay a lower amount per month toward that debt, ultimately the difference was being

underwritten by taxpayers. And so there are some arguments that that wasn't fair to the people who didn't benefit from student loans by getting a degree or a credential. Is there a concern that these student loan changes will mean that fewer students go to college? Yeah, that's a really interesting question. It depends how what we see happening over the next few months in terms of people defaulting on their loans. The more I think that people hear about student loan debt that have not yet enrolled in college, the more reluctant that they might be. And what was interesting, if you remember back to the Biden administration and the pandemic period, we were discussing student loans almost every day with the well-meaning intention of

helping people pay them. But the ultimate effect of that was to remind people every day that there is almost $2 trillion worth of student loan debt, outstanding. in this country. And the more people are reminded of that, the more they question whether they also want to take on debt to go to college. So, John, I think that this gets me to a bigger question about college right now. And also a pet peeve of mine, which is that people tend to be kind of hypocritical when they talk about college in some ways. And I'll explain. We hear a lot from often people on the right, but also sometimes liberals as well, that you don't really need a college degree, that it's less important

now, that AI has changed the game. All of the people saying that went to college, I went to college. I loved going to college. I think it's great to go to college. I think that it is a great way to advance not just yourself by education, but also socially. But if you're a young person heading into the workforce for the first time right now, how important is it really to have a college degree, not with the kind of like, oh, you know, you won't be exposed to wokeness or something like that, but like what does it mean to have a college degree right now? To your point, many of the people who argue that you don't need to go to college also send their own kids to college. And we hear from many of them who are critical of colleges lately for their purported sort of

political leanings, but they still send their kids to college. Not everybody needs to go to college is the short answer to your question, but somebody needs to go to college. AI can't do all the jobs. And in fact, while you heard a lot of college graduates this spring booing speakers who said nice things about AI because those college graduates are facing a very difficult labor market, especially at the level they're entering at entry-level jobs, there are huge shortages in many other fields that require university degrees, particularly health care, semiconductor production, massive shortages. And the reason is simple math. It's that we have a huge cohort of baby boomers who are retiring. The last baby boomers will be filing for Social Security in 2013. And we have far fewer

18-year-olds coming up through the pipeline to take those jobs. Somebody needs to get degrees. And there are two purposes for this. One is for their own sake. In most majors from most institutions, you will make more money with a university degree than without one. The, how much? much more you'll make varies. It's not as colleges would have you believe a blanket reality that everybody makes more money who goes to college. But the other reason that we need people to go to college is for the sake of our economy. We have a knowledge-based economy. We have an international global rivals who are increasing college going while college going in the United States. That is the proportion of high school graduates who go directly to college in the United States has been

going down really quite dramatically because of the concern about costs. So somebody needs to go to college is the answer to your question. We'll get back to my conversation with John Marcus in a moment for more on how college is changing in some big ways. But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five-star review on Spotify and Apple podcasts, watch us on YouTube, and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. What a day is brought to you by Delete Me.

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The one in a melon bowl. And what does that sound like? Mmm. Like that. Booster juice. Canadian born. Blending since 1999. Let's get back to my conversation with John Marcus.

You said something that was really interesting that I think is pretty key, which is that there are fewer 18-year-olds who are coming up through the pipeline to go to college in the first place. And I think that that is something that if you're a college dean or university president, you are very nervous about. Because despite the massive price tag, actually, the massive price tag and the struggle might be tied, a lot of colleges are struggling financially right now. Is that because there just are fewer 18-year-olds, that we've kind of reached a peak of the number of 18-year-olds, So we're going to go to college and say 2008, 2009, and it's downhill from there. Yes.

The answer to that question is yes. The number of students in college is already down by almost two million since 2011. On top of that, the number of 18-year-olds peaked last spring. So this fall will be the first year of what's called it a demographic cliff. A decline in the number of 18-year-olds, the total decline will reach 13 percent, fewer 18-year-olds between now and 2042. That's a huge problem for colleges, and you've begun to see them closing. It is on top of other problems that colleges are facing some political cuts in federal research funding. International enrollment is a big problem for colleges because they make a lot of money out of international students who aren't coming here anymore.

And as I mentioned a moment ago, the proportion of high school students who are graduating from high school who are going directly to college has declined from about 70% at the peak to now closer to 60% in about 10 years. That is a big drop. All of those things, yeah, they're keeping deans and presidents awake at night, assuming that they still have jobs. So something else that's interesting is that the financial struggle seemed to be a little bit uneven. So if you are a small college, you know, if you're Oberlin or Kenyon, which are both in Ohio, you might be struggling. But if you're Ohio State, it looks like you're more or less sitting pretty. So is it about the difference between big tier one research universities and small colleges? Like who is struggling more, who is likely to struggle more, and which universities are more likely to be in safer waters?

Flagshik public universities are doing comparatively well, in part because they're a good deal. They're typically less expensive than a private nonprofit, even more selective college or university. they receive state funding, although whether that will continue over the long term is a challenge that they're about to face. The colleges that are in the most trouble right now are small, meaning their enrollment is fairly limited, tuition dependent, meaning they don't have big endowments, regional, meaning they're not well-known outside of their home state, and they can't attract students from across the border. And also single-gender, of which there are still a number of single gender institutions and religiously affiliated.

More than half of the college that have closed have been religiously affiliated. That particularly affects rural areas where there are a number of small religiously affiliated tuition-dependent colleges. There has been a big decline in the availability of higher education in rural America. There's sort of an imbalance in what's available to someone who lives in a city or a suburb and someone who lives in rural America. but those are the kinds of colleges that are at risk. You mentioned this a little bit earlier, but the U.S. economy is changing really quickly.

If college enrollment doesn't go back up, what could that mean for the U.S. in the next 10 to 20 to 30 years? As you mentioned, there are a few or 18-year-olds, but we still have an economy that depends on people going to college. We do, and the effect of this over time will be shortages in areas that do require university or college degrees and professional degrees. One of the other changes that takes effect today that we didn't discuss is there is now a cap on borrowing for graduate and professional school, such as medical or dental school. We have a growing shortage of physicians, dentists, veterinarians, the kind of people that need professional degrees. there is potentially a benefit to capping what students can borrow for graduate school and professional school, which is that it might force colleges to lower the tuition, which is very expensive at those schools. In the short term, it will force people to find some other means of support or forego a

career in one of those fields. You talked about costs, there are colleges that, as of this year, will cost in the six figures, $100,000 a year to get a degree. So those are scary issues and people who dismiss colleges as woke and elitist. I'm not going to wait into that debate, but we need somebody to go. And we need somebody to come out of those colleges with the skills to fill jobs that are already, we already have shortages in so many of these areas. and that's an issue I think we all need to be paying attention to over time. Absolutely.

John, thank you so much for joining me. My pleasure. Thank you very much for having me. That was my conversation with John Marcus, senior higher education reporter at the Heckenger Report. Before we go, American politics is serious, okay? It's about a chronically algae-filled, no longer reflecting pool. It's about celebrating the country's 250th birthday in the octagon.

Put simply, it's no laughing. matter. Nevertheless, Love It or Leave It drops every Wednesday and Friday. Each episode, John Lovett, is joined on stage by guests to break down the biggest stories in American politics with jokes, analysis, and catharsis, but mostly jokes. Upcoming guests include Margaret Cho, Representative Maxwell Frost, and Brooklyn Nine-N-Nine's Joe LaTrulyo. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, contemplate how much money the President of the United States took in from his crypto businesses last year and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, and not just about how according to a federal filing released Tuesday,

Trump took in nearly $1.2 billion from his crypto businesses, locking in profits while his investors were socked with losses. Like me. What a day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at cricket.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane Koston. And two quick things. First, on yesterday's episode, I mixed up Justice Samuel Alito with the late Justice Antonin Scalia when discussing dissents in the birthright citizenship case, which is very embarrassing given that Justice Scalia passed away in 2016. I regret the air. And second, we are out the rest of this week. Have a very happy and safe Fourth of July. And remember, this is your country. Don't let Donald Trump's corruption cavalcade define it. What a day is a production of crooked

media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Forre, Erica Morrison, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Canter. We had helped today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.