What A Day - The New Jersey Drones Mass Delusion, Explained
Episode Date: December 21, 2024Something mysterious has been going down in New Jersey this week…but it’s NOT drones. It’s that thousands of people are looking at airplanes in the night sky and thinking they see UFOs. What cau...ses mass delusions like this wave of now mostly debunked drone sightings? In this concluding episode of How We Got Here, Max and Erin share four stories of famous mass hysterias and talk to William Bernstein, an author who writes about the science of mass delusions and why they happen.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Aaron, there's something that's been bugging me about the nighttime drone sightings popping
up all over New Jersey this past week.
Is it that nobody has brought up the fact that they could be viral marketing for the
Aaron Rodgers documentary on Netflix?
So the mystery here isn't what's up in the skies.
We know what's up there.
Yeah, it's airplanes.
Right.
By and large, nearly every viral video supposedly showing a drone swarm or UFO has turned out
to be just a normal passenger plane with its landing lights on.
It's odd because it's not like this is happening in some remote corner of the Amazon
where people have never seen overhead flights before.
It's New Jersey.
Airplanes are practically the state first.
Right.
That is what's so strange to me about so many people mistaking those planes for UFO
drones.
Like, let me play you this clip from a report by the network News Nation.
One, two, three, four, five, at least five lights, six lights.
I didn't believe what I was seeing.
But what was I seeing?
We're here in central Jersey.
We've been looking for the past hour.
I think we've seen about 40 or 50 of these drones.
In fact, there's one over my shoulder right there.
One after another after another another these drones appeared in the
night sky. If you look real close they look like fixed-wing aircraft about 8 to
10 feet wide, colorful, white blinking lights. Definitely not an airplane but
what was it? Okay so for listeners I cannot overstate the degree to which the
footage in this report is definitely of an airplane.
It's not even blurry.
That is the most normal video of an airplane taking off I have ever seen.
What is he talking about?
So this is what I mean.
There was a mysterious mass event in New Jersey this week, but it's not drones or UFOs.
It's that one day, all of a sudden, thousands and thousands of people all looked up at Airplanes
in the Night Sky, a site they'd seen countless times before, and collectively had their brains
tell them that those airplanes were UFOs.
What?
I'm Max Fisher.
I'm Erin Ryan, and this is How We Got Here, a series where we explore a big question behind
the week's headlines and tell a story that answers that question.
Our question this week, what causes mass delusions, the wave of now mostly debunked drone and UFO sightings around New Jersey?
Before we get into it though, a couple of quick notes.
Yeah, on last week's show about Syria, we opened with a clip of a CNN reporter stumbling onto a man hiding in one of the country's secret prisons.
CNN now says it believes that man is a former military official and not,
as he claimed, a freed political prisoner.
And speaking of freed political prisoners, this will be the last episode of How We Got
Here.
Yeah, thank you to everyone who listened, wrote in, or shared an episode with a friend.
We hope you enjoyed the show as much as we enjoyed making it.
You can still catch me every week on Hysteria and catch Max on Offline and look out for
more from both of us next year.
Shout out to Emma Ellick-Frank, the show's producer, and to Evan Sutton, its audio engineer,
who made this show what it is.
What a day's weekday episode, the Jane Costin will continue as usual.
Okay, so that's out of the way.
Should we get into it?
Yes.
This week, we're going to tell you four stories of famous mass delusions.
We'll also talk to the author of a book on the science of mass delusions about why and how they happen.
Excited to learn about why my brain is so bad at braining.
That is a big takeaway, yeah.
You don't have to be some kind of dummy to get swept up in one of these.
They happen to smart, well-informed people all the time.
Here's a clip from one incident that helped trigger what's still to this day
one of the largest mass delusions in American history.
See if you can place it.
Humped shape is rising out of the pit.
I can make out a small beam of light against a mirror.
What's that?
There's a jet of flame springing from that mirror
and it leaps right at these dancing men.
He strikes them head on.
Lord, they're turning into flames.
The whole field's caught up by the woods of fires.
The gas tank, tanks, and the automobiles are spreading everywhere.
Coming this way now, about 20 yards to my right.
Ladies and gentlemen, due to circumstances beyond our control,
we are unable to continue the broadcast from Grover's Mill.
When did we stop talking like this as broadcasters?
I have to say, Max, that one of the things we never
got to do on how we got here was do an entire episode
in North Atlantic accent.
In a mid-Atlantic.
From the mid-century.
I'm challenging you to do the rest of this episode
in a mid-Atlantic.
That was from the, no.
That was from the 1938 radio drama War of the Worlds, which
was recorded to sound like a news broadcast reporting on a genuine alien invasion. They
got great scream footage. They did. And it fooled a lot of people, right? Like they thought
this was real. And they really acted like it. Emma, our producer, dug up this clip from
a documentary that AT&T made interviewing its telephone operators on duty the night
of the broadcast.
But people believed it. They really believed it that night. And I think of the ones who
were begging us to get connections to their families, to their husbands, to mothers and
fathers before the world came to an end so they could just tell them they loved them.
Man, AT&T produced the hell out of that clip.
Yeah, they love them. Man, AT&T produced the hell out of that clip. Yeah, they really did.
Okay, but does this really qualify
as a mass delusion though?
Like sure, maybe some people got a little credulous
about believing a radio report that did air after all
in the day before Halloween,
but still that's not the same
as straight up imagining something.
Oh, but they did.
Here's a clip of Orson Welles who directed
and narrated the broadcast being interviewed by the BBC
about how Americans responded.
A lot of people wanted to know what to do.
As a matter of fact, they were phoning us from all over the place, some of them reporting
that they'd seen Martians landing in their backyards and asking for advice.
There were others that claimed to have been attacked personally by Martians.
Whole experience was extremely intense. So it's not just that people got tricked into thinking the radio play was real.
Something made them believe that they were seeing things that weren't actually there.
This is a good place to bring in a conversation I had with a guy named William Bernstein.
Bernstein is a financial theorist and former neurologist whose most recent book is titled
The Delusions of Crowds Why People Go Mad in Groups.
Boy, do they. And Bill said that to understand why mass delusions happen,
you have to get that we as a species evolved in a way that makes us instinctively imitate the people around us.
Here's Bill.
Sometime around 10, 15,000 years ago, humankind colonized the Western Hemisphere and within about 5,000 years
various tribes spread from the high arctic all the way down through North
America, Central America into South America down to the very tip of Tierra
del Fuego. So it was this remarkably rapid migration and along the way in order to survive humans had to learn how
to variously make igloos and kayaks and hunt bison on the Great Plains and
fashion poisoned dart guns blow guns in the Amazon and if you've never done any
of those things you're not going to be able to invent
them yourself.
All right?
So these things got invented and then everybody else basically imitated what they did.
And so what it boils down to is that our primary survival skill as a species is the ability
to imitate.
And my husband made fun of me for getting rid of my skinny jeans.
I was like, this is a survival skill.
We are wearing wider legs now.
We are evolving.
You're just clearly more evolved than him.
I am surviving as my human ancestor is intended.
So if this is an allegory for the mass drone delusion in New Jersey, then what?
People saw a couple of reports of unidentified drones and their fear of a mass drone delusion in New Jersey, then what? People saw a couple of reports of unidentified drones
and their fear of a mass drone invasion
made their brains hallucinated out of normal airplane traffic?
So the instinct to imitate people around us
is so strong that it comes out in all sorts of ways
and it's usually unconscious, like yawning.
Someone next to you yawns, suddenly you need to yawn too,
even if you're not actually tired.
Same goes for sneezing.
Bill pointed out that we even imitate speech.
You move to Georgia, after a while you will start speaking with a Georgia accent.
So the thinking is that maybe our perception of reality can work this way too.
If we believe that everybody around us sees aliens because we heard them say so on the radio
and all of our neighbors are behaving like it's real, then we might trick ourselves into
thinking that we saw aliens too.
It's a nice theory, but is there any proof that this can make us really straight up
see something that isn't actually there?
So Bill writes about this famous experiment first conducted in the 1950s by
the psychologist Solomon Ash. Ash would give people a test, very simple test. He'd show
them a card with a line drawn on it, then he would show them a second card with a few lines on it,
and then have to pick out the line on the second card that matched the line on the first card.
So matching shapes sounds pretty easy. That was the idea. Here's Bill.
What he would do is he would ask subjects to perform this test. Well, if they just performed the test on their own,
they got a 99% accuracy rate.
But then what he would do is he would put a subject
in a room with what looked like other subjects,
five other subjects, four or five other subjects,
but they were actually ringers.
And they would shout out wrong answers, okay?
And of course the error rate of the actual subjects
went up dramatically. And of course, the error rate of the actual subjects went up dramatically. And
the most interesting reactions were the 25% of people who still didn't make any errors.
And they would be asked afterward about the experience and they said, I thought I was
going crazy. Everybody else around me thought I was wrong. All right. And to me, that was
the most salient result of that study.
That actually reminds me of an elementary school Halloween party when I was a kid.
There was a game where we had to guess how many jelly beans were in a jar,
and the winner got the jar of jelly beans.
And I was looking at the jar, waiting for my turn,
and thinking, like, okay, probably like 100, 110 or whatever.
Then the girl right in front of me, whose name is Jessica Nelson, I still remember,
got to the front of the line and said, five.
And I was like, there were clearly,
like I remember my thought process being like,
there's way more than five in there,
but I don't wanna be like a total outlier.
So I said that there were 12.
Wow.
And I obviously didn't win.
That's amazing. So really just hearing her say five kind of convinced you, maybe it were 12. Wow. And I obviously didn't win. That's amazing.
Yeah.
So really just hearing her say five
kind of convinced you maybe it's 12.
Yeah, I was like, yeah, I can't be that wrong.
She's gotta be sort of right.
So I guess it's 12.
Right, that's wild to see that.
So psychologists have a name for this phenomenon.
It's called common knowledge.
If you believe that everybody around you thinks something,
you become much likelier to believe it too. And you even start to see physical evidence of that where it
doesn't exist. That is just how powerful our impulse is to conform and imitate.
Okay, so back to the drones. I feel like this explains how someone like that News Nation
reporter could drop into New Jersey, hear all these people say they're seeing drones,
and then trick himself into seeing a drone too.
Sure, that explains how someone can join in on a mass delusion, but not how the mass delusion
gets started in the first place.
So for that, let's talk about a more recent mass delusion from just a few years ago known
as Havana Syndrome.
Here's an ABC News report summing it up.
In late 2016, US diplomats and their families
at the US embassy in Havana, Cuba
started falling ill with symptoms
of sudden severe headaches, dizziness, nausea,
loss of hearing, and more.
Soon after, diplomats and other government workers
stationed around the world began experiencing
similar unexplained symptoms.
Oh yeah, this became a whole thing.
Some US officials think that the victims had been targeted by a secret Russian weapon that
was literally cooking their brains.
So at first people weren't quite sure what to make of this because on the one hand the
victims show no evidence of injury and scientists say that no such weapon exists or could even
hypothetically exist without leaving other traces like bird marks. Basically, there's no evidence of anything beyond 200 or so people suddenly coming down
with similar symptoms.
But on the other hand, it's weird that all those people work in overseas US embassies
and all came down sick like around the same time.
Unless it's not weird at all because all the symptoms are psychogenic.
Psychogenic?
What's that?
Generated by the brain, not fake.
I'm not saying it's not real.
People experience a psychogenic illness when they think they've been exposed to grave threats
to their physical health.
So for whatever reason, under certain circumstances, their brain makes what they believe really
happen to them so that it can produce genuine physical symptoms.
So that is actually what a number of scientists and doctors increasingly think happened here.
A few cases of mystery headaches popped up in Havana for whatever reason.
U.S. diplomats around the world came to believe that they were under attack
and their brains manifested real symptoms out of that fear.
And remembering this all happened as Trump was coming into office and purging U.S. diplomats en masse, so it was a stressful time.
So if this is an allegory for the mass drone delusion in New Jersey, then people
saw a couple reports of unidentified drones and their fear of mass drone
invasion made their brains hallucinate it out of normal air traffic?
We can actually go back and trace that happening, yeah. So we don't know exactly
which reports first sparked the panic, but this science journalist named Mick West has been writing for a long
time about UFO sightings. And he says there are a couple of reasons that people typically
mistake planes for UFOs or drones. First is that people have a notoriously hard time judging
how far away airborne objects are, just how our eyes work. When frisbees were first popularized, people kept mistaking them for flying saucers
because they thought it was much further away and therefore much larger than it really was.
And West has said that this is why lots and lots of the New Jersey drone sightings
describe a car-sized drone floating nearby, but then it turns out to actually be a big jumbo jet that's much farther away.
You know what? Also, vision insurance?
Kind of bad in a lot of cases.
I think that this is also a testament to the fact that people...
Get your eyes checked, folks.
Get your eyes...
People need glasses.
People need contacts.
Otherwise, you're going to think a frisbee is a flying saucer.
And be terrified.
Right.
But that doesn't explain why people describe the drones as hovering in the air.
Airplanes don't hover.
So that is the other trick that your eyes play on you. Planes that are flying at an angle away from you or towards you,
rather than directly across your field of view, can look stationary.
This is especially true of planes that are descending for landing,
when they're slowing down and might be banking on a wide turn, that from the right angle can make them look like they're holding in place.
And this is what's happening in some of the earliest viral videos that purported to show
the drone invasion, that science journalist Mick West went through a bunch of them and
showed what was happening in even the specific flights that they corresponded to.
Which promptly put everyone at ease and ended the panic, right?
By then, the drone videos had got shared to all sorts of local Facebook groups and Reddit
boards.
People read online that their neighbors had been seeing strange drones, so they went out
and looked.
Probably most of them saw nothing, but people who believed they had seen a drone too posted
confirmation back to those groups, which over a few weeks started to feel like consensus.
Common knowledge.
Everybody knows that the skies are full of unidentified drones. God,
what kind of an idiot doesn't see unidentified drones?
Which of course, cried out for an explanation, any explanation to fill the void. Enter the
grifters and attention seekers like here's Republican Congressman Jeff Van Drew.
A New Jersey congressman claims Iran is responsible.
Iran launched a mothership probably about a month ago that contains these drones.
It's off the east coast of the United States of America.
But he's refusing to reveal sources to back up his claim.
They do work with the Air Force. They do work with national defense. They do work with drones.
The Pentagon denying any so-called mothership.
I am the Mothership Connection. They do work with drones. The Pentagon denying any so-called mothership.
I am the Mothership Connection.
Insha'Allah, we will elect less gullible members of Congress.
That clip was from a local ABC affiliate.
There was also this guy claiming to be a drone manufacturer who posted this mega viral TikTok saying the drones were hunting for loose nuclear weapons.
So I spoke to a gentleman a few months ago who was trying to raise an alarm
to the highest levels of our government, which they had their ears closed,
about this one particular nuclear warhead that he physically put his hands on.
He physically touched this warhead
that was left over from Ukraine.
That got picked up by Joe Rogan?
Of course it did.
Of course it did.
I was just like, I'm waiting.
I'm waiting for the Rogan.
The Joe Rogan appearance is inevitable.
It's like one of those Jack in the Boxes
where you just turn,
it's like the longer you talk about UFOs,
it's like da da da da da da.
Up comes the Rogan.
So here we are, Rogan.
Well, you were right and ever since has been sounding
the alarm about UFOs to his 30 some million listeners.
We won't subject you to that,
but I did enjoy this moment from his most recent interview
with a UFO believer.
Wow, so this is a picture of it. That's actually a picture from the pilot in the cockpit. It looks like UFO believer. Wow. So this lady got a picture of it.
That's actually a picture from the pilot in the cockpit.
It looks like a plane.
Yeah. I have the one for the lady too.
It looks the same, except from the ground, but.
The same in it?
But doesn't it look like a plane to you?
Doesn't it look like a plane, Jamie?
Can't tell. I mean, I don't know.
Doesn't it look like the front, like the nose? I mean, I'm looking at Bigfoot through the woods right now.
Yeah, it's a plane.
That's why it looks like a plane, because it's a plane.
And then there are MAGA and QAnon grifter types like Charlie Kirk and Congresswoman
Marjorie Taylor Greene making up stories about how the drones are controlled by the US government.
And let me just say this, not to put on my own tinfoil hat, but all of this drone coverage comes
on the heels of a moment of what felt like a lot of class solidarity in the U.S.
After the UnitedHealthcare CEO was killed, there was a discussion about the divide between
rich and poor that united people across the political spectrum against the rich.
And now we're talking about drones.
They don't want you talking about healthcare.
The mothership is capitalism.
Okay, well, that's interesting.
So it's a theory and we love that.
So what's important here isn't necessarily the content of the narratives around the drones,
I would say, or even whether people believe them,
just the existence of a narrative, whether it's UFOs, whatever,
makes each additional drone sighting more cognitively attractive because
your brain has a story to fit it into,
which is how you get stuff like this from a different local ABC News affiliate.
You know, when things like this are happening, it seems everyone starts to look up like my
crew and I have been here in Mendham recording this video that you're looking at right now.
We have no idea what it is.
I've seen this.
This video is everywhere for listeners.
It looks like a white glowing orb spinning at an impossible speed.
But we do know what it is.
It's Venus.
The cameraman just zoomed way, way in until it got really blurry, which sort of looks
like shaking.
Anyone with a camera can get the same effect.
Okay, calm down, Robert Altman.
I also saw Fox News ran a video of a mysterious drone flying at an impossible angle, but it
turned out that the video had been taken by the reporter's
daughter, who'd forgotten to explain that she'd held the phone vertically. Fox played it
horizontally, and if you flip the video back, it's clearly just an airplane flying overhead.
Amazing, amazing. So we are not trying to goof on these reporters, even though they might deserve
it. These people were just falling victim to the same mass delusion as everybody else.
Like, listen to this CNN report from New Jersey.
As you're hearing this, please know that the images that CNN is playing are of the most normal
everyday videos of airplanes I have ever seen. They are not blurry. They're not hard to make out.
They are literally just airplanes taking off and landing in full view.
What they appear to be are drones,
clusters of unidentified drones flying much lower
than a plane would.
I think the creepy part is not that it's just a drone,
that they're so large.
In New Jersey's Ocean County,
sheriff's deputies took their own video of the drones.
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck,
talks like a duck.
It's just a duck.
It's a drone.
So I think this clip is so telling. quacks like a duck, talks like a duck. It's just a duck. It's a drone.
So I think this clip is so tellic. Look, I'm sure all of these people are perfectly smart and reasonable in any other context, but mass delusions really are that contagious. It's how
you get an entire production crew talking themselves into broadcasting footage of
obvious airplanes that, no offense to them, make them sound delusional.
Okay, now it's time to talk about my personal favorite mass panic from 2016.
Here's a CBS News clip.
Many have turned out to be hoaxes, others more serious as threats on social media.
We're talking about the wave of creepy clown sightings across the United States.
Going back to late August, there have been dozens of reports of threatening clowns, largely
centered around schools and colleges.
Many have been dismissed by law enforcement as pranks, but more than a dozen people have
been arrested in connection with the sightings.
I remember this, but I never actually caught up on it.
Were the clown sightings real or was it just all made up?
It seems like it was mostly delusion.
The first spooky clown sighting turned out to be a viral marketing stunt for a horror
film, which got a hand into him.
You sure?
It worked.
Pretty good.
Then people started spotting more spooky clowns, mostly at night.
Oof.
Don't like a night clown.
The vast majority of these never got confirmed,
but they did get reported, which triggered more sightings.
It snowballed until people convinced themselves
the clowns were attacking kids at bus stops across America.
I mean, that does sound scary.
Yeah, but a lot of the supposed clown-related arrests,
which people took as police confirmation
of the clown threat, turned out to be misreported.
Do you remember the clown murder from that year?
As in a person in a clown costume killed someone?
Well, that was how it got reported,
but it turned out that the victim was a 16-year-old kid
wearing a clown mask.
Oh, OK.
That is darkly ironic.
People got so worked up about the supposed threat
from clowns that those fear-stricken people
became the actual real threat.
It got so bad that actual normal clowns
talked about not being able to work.
Here's an interview from a local ABC affiliate.
The women say the most frustrating thing
about the hysteria is that it tarnishes the image
of professional clowns, which affects business.
They wanted to speak out in hopes of suppressing the fear.
It's not fair to the clowns that are trying to make a living
or the clowns that are trying to volunteer at different events.
You know, when people are scared, we have to back off from them.
Reporting in Benita, Candace Crone, 10 News.
I'll take grandma hugs and wows her any day.
You know what? I just want to say,
remember a few years ago when it was like, learn to code if you don't get a gen... whatever.
I feel like if you're a clown, just learn to Spider-Man.
There is not that much of a difference between a clown and a Spider-Man,
except Spider-Man's not always making those faces.
You know, you get to wear a full mask.
But kids love Spider-Men.
It's true.
So...
They're not as scary.
Transition your clowning skills to another costume entertainer.
Okay.
That's all I have to say.
It's good advice.
There's a lot of good advice on this show for people.
Thank you.
Well, I mean, my takeaway here is that it is wild how something so laughably fake as
a nationwide evil clown uprising can, if it gets reported enough, spread on the rumor
mill enough, terrify people so thoroughly that they get violent.
Yeah, and that brings us to our fourth and final story of Mass Delusion, the most famous
of them all, at least in the US, the Salem witch trials.
Oh, this is actually kind of a shameful gap in my history knowledge. Aaron, can you fill us in?
Yeah, so quick and dirty, between 1692 and 1693, more than 200 people in colonial Massachusetts
were accused of witchcraft. Most of them were in and around Salem. The evidence presented during
the trials was spectral evidence. So it was stuff that was only being experienced by the accusers that no one else could see.
Wow.
30 people were eventually found guilty, 19 people were hanged,
one man was crushed to death, and five died in jail.
So the mass delusion element here was people experiencing the,
quote unquote, spectral evidence of a thing that was not actually happening
because as they were hearing more stories about witchcraft, they started to
experience it themselves.
Right.
Well, and then in the years later, many of the accusers who were mostly teenage girls
admitted that they'd faked being hexed.
So the spectral evidence that they were presenting in the trials was being faked.
Right.
It was a real whoopsie of justice.
Well, you really see over and over in these incidents how once some community reaches
a critical mass of buy-in to the delusion, people start genuinely believing that they
are seeing or hearing things that just aren't there.
Yeah, and what's really interesting about the witch trials is that there was relevant
backdrop at the time.
There was a lot of property disputes in Salem.
There were kind of a tug of war happening between like churches
and individual people and the first girls to have fits
allegedly at the hands of witches were the daughter
and niece of the village reverend, which is convenient
since the church was involved in so many feuds
over property and church rights.
I see.
And the trials kind of allowed all of this wacky faith-based evidence to be used against
the accused and really is a good example of why religion should not be driving the justice
system.
Right.
And you can see how that would help to trigger the mass delusion aspect of it too.
So this is a good segue back to the drones.
A big, big part of what has allowed the delusion to spread, despite all the evidence that these
were obviously airplanes, is how much buy-in there has been from sometimes quite prominent
elected officials.
Like Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland, who claimed to have, quote, personally witnessed
and videoed what appeared to be dozens of large drones in the sky above my residence.
But his video turned out to show the constellation Orion. Sorry
Governor, those are stars, not drones. Oh my God, everyone needs to go outside.
I know. There was also New Jersey Senator Andy Kim, who also posted a video claiming
to show drones, and he later conceded those were actually just airplanes and he'd gotten
fooled.
At least he admitted he'd gotten fooled.
He did, good for him.
Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano posted a photo supposedly of a downed drone,
implying it belonged to a hostile foreign country, except it was a Star Wars prop.
Whoopsie doodle.
Then you've got the many officials, including Trump, demanding authority for police to shoot
down the drones, which remember, most of those drones are in fact passenger airliners.
Here's New Jersey Congressman Chris Smith promising legislation to, for some reason,
encourage cops to take pot shots at your next flight into Newark.
Sheriff Golden wrote me a few days ago requesting legislation to empower the state police to
seriously protect at-risk persons and infrastructure and, if necessary, bring down a dangerous
drone or drones. I am
now drafting that bill and will soon introduce it. What a fun thing to hear in
the middle of holiday travel. So in fairness lots of authorities like the
State Department, Defense Department, House Intel Committee and so on are all
trying very hard to convince people there is no drone invasion, there are no
UFOs, it's just normal airplane traffic getting distorted into an unwarranted
panic, but people really don't want to hear it.
There's a lot of resistance to being corrected.
Which is maybe why it's the elected officials who are stoking the conspiracies rather than
dispelling them.
Mm-hmm.
Sort of like in Salem, right?
People will reward you for validating their mass delusion and punish you for challenging
it.
I asked Bill Bernstein, the guy who wrote that book on mass illusions, why that is. When you present someone who has a definite view of a given subject with disconfirmatory
evidence, most of the time they will ignore that evidence.
That's what confirmation bias really is.
Confirmation bias most of the time is not about confirming what you believe.
What it really is about is ignoring contrary or disconfirming evidence.
And then, you know, there's something which is very controversial among neuropsychologists,
which is the boomerang effect, which is there are a fair amount of data that suggests that
when you present people with disconfirmatory data, it actually hardens their views.
Bill said that there are a few reasons that we might be getting more prone to mass delusions.
There's social media, rising distrust of institutions,
worsening social fragmentation.
But he emphasized that this goes back
basically as far as recorded history.
He raised many, many more examples,
some from centuries ago, some present day.
You can read his book for more,
but here's his big takeaway.
Your friends see drones, you start seeing drones
because you're an imitative creature.
There's nothing unusual about it.
I mean, this is behavior that's hardwired into all human beings, and we've been doing it for hundreds of
thousands of years, and we'll probably continue to exhibit this behavior, you know, until we blow
ourselves up. Let's hope that's not anytime soon, though. I suppose it depends on how far Trump takes
his suggestion that we start shooting at anything we think might be a drone. I asked Bill how he
thought the drones thing would play out based on past illusions.
His answer was pretty simple.
He said probably everyone would just quietly move on pretty soon and just never ever admit
that they had been wrong.
You know, we're having a good time with this drones episode.
We are.
This mass delusions episode.
But I do think that there's something wider and more sinister that we need to talk about
when we talk about mass delusions.
And I think it goes along with some of the work that you've done in the past, Max,
which is the role that mass delusions play in spreading disinformation and misinformation.
Yeah.
Anytime people fall for something like a QAnon or something, a deliberate seed of disinfo or misinfo,
it is an attempt to kind of start the ball rolling
on a mass delusion in a way.
When we talk about mass delusions like this,
sometimes what it does is it shuts down conversations
around like other things.
Like I was recently on a walk
before the New Jersey drones thing even happened
and I actually saw a drone in Los Angeles.
But I think it was a police drone.
Are you sure it was a drone?
I'm positive it was a drone.
I was walking down the sidewalk,
another woman was walking the other way,
and we saw this drone hovering over a building
at a nearby college.
And she looked at me and she goes,
that was a drone, right?
And I was like, yeah, that was a drone.
And she goes, I'm not crazy.
And I was like, no, that was a drone. And she goes, I'm not crazy.
And I was like, no, I don't think so.
But now I'm like, am I?
So that's my concluding thought.
Okay.
Well, Erin, perfect way to go out on the last episode.
Thank you, thank you so much.
I cannot tell you what a pleasure it's been
to write and host this show with you.
And I understand you have one final clip to play us out. Oh yeah it's got everything.
New Jersey journey and it implores you to continue believing. Beautiful. How we got here is written and hosted by me, Max Fisher, and Erin Ryan.
Our producer is Emma Illich-Frank.
Evan Sutton mixes and masters the show.
Jordan Cantor sound engineers the show, audio support from Kyle Seglen, Charlotte Landis,
and Vasiliz Fotopoulos.
Production support from Leo Duran, Raven Yamamoto and Adrian Hill. Thank you.