What A Day - True Crime Rates

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

In the run-up to the midterm elections, Republicans have made crime a central issue in their attacks against Democrats. But the fear tactics aren’t backed up by facts.North Korea tried to launch a powerful long-range missile on Thursday, following an intense volley of short-range missile tests earlier this week. And with tensions already high in the region, there’s concern that North Korea may attempt a nuclear weapons test.And in headlines: former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan was shot and wounded during a protest rally, U.S. Embassy officials met with Brittney Griner in Russia, and tens of thousands of student workers across the University of California system voted to authorize a strike.Show Notes:Vote Save America: Every Last Vote – https://votesaveamerica.com/every-last-vote/Crooked Coffee is officially here. Our first blend, What A Morning, is available in medium and dark roasts. Wake up with your own bag at crooked.com/coffeeFollow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/whataday/For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday 

It's Friday, November 4th. I'm Trevelle Anderson. And I'm Josie Duffy Rice. And this is What A Day, reminding you that if you never turn the clock on your microwave forward for daylight saving, you don't have to turn it back this weekend. You're still lazy, though. I'm just gonna call it. But I get it. Sometimes you just like to do some calculations in the middle of the day. Keeps your brain fresh. Oh, that's a good point. It's a mental exercise.

On today's show, U.S. Embassy officials met with jailed basketball star Brittany Griner in Russia. Plus, Elon Musk paved up his Hyperloop project and put up a parking lot. But first, as you may have heard, the midterms are coming up in less than a week. On Tuesday, Democrats will face an uphill battle in the fight to retain congressional power. And Republicans have been pulling out all sorts of messaging tactics in this election. Everything from trans kids are playing sports, to Democrats are groomers, to book bands are actually cool, to a perennial favorite, crime is up, and it is the Democrats' fault. So we thought today we'd talk a little bit about that claim. Is it true that crime is up? How do we know? And what is

the cause? So first of all, I want to say that while Republicans have mostly been running on this claim, the data shows that people across the political spectrum are concerned about crime and public safety. Republican voters tend to rank it higher on their list of priorities, but they aren't the only ones who believe that crime is skyrocketing because of Democratic policies. But as you may not be surprised to hear, this is extremely, extremely, extremely not the case. Of course it isn't, Josie. OK, so let's first talk about that first part. You said that it's not the case that crime is skyrocketing.

What's really happening then? The bottom line is that compared to the last 50, 60 years that crime is skyrocketing. What's really happening then? The bottom line is that compared to the last 50, 60 years, crime is near historic lows. Much of the media, primarily Fox News and Fox News adjacent, as well as like a lot of local TV news, et cetera, they've all been saying that crime is at an all-time high, right? They've been saying this for months. And this is objectively false. Objectively. As far as the national picture goes, there is just no merit to that perspective. In fact, in early October, the FBI released their annual crime data. This was for data from 2021.

And what they found was basically inconclusive. They found that some crimes are up. Homicides, for example, increased 4 percent from 2020. But overall, violent crime is down, but still kind of barely by just about 1%. You know, what we see is a much more nuanced and much less extremist picture than the current narrative would have you believe. It just kind of reflects normal shifts in crime, like those fluctuations happen, right? Yeah, I mean, you know, I'm old enough to remember hearing last year about how crime skyrocketed drastically in 2020. Was that not the case? Or what was the story

there? Yeah. So it is true that between the end of 2019 and the end of 2020, some crimes rose significantly. So there was a significant increase in murders. It was the biggest one-year increase since 1960. But yet, let me be very clear about what that means, right? So even with that increase, the number of homicides was still well below what we saw in the 1990s, the early 2000s. It is absolutely tragic that more people died, of course, and we don't want to play down the enormous harm

caused by such loss, but perspective is important. And when we say the biggest one-year increase, you know, that only takes into account 2019 and 2020. But when you look at the bigger picture, we're still near historical lows. You know, and when we say things like biggest one-year increase, what people hear is the biggest number, the biggest amount, the biggest per capita. And the truth is that, like, that's not what that number means, right? Yeah. Okay.

So tell us why crime has become such a talking point. For a while, criminal justice reform was a real bipartisan issue. But now we're seeing candidates, mainly Republicans, claim that crime is skyrocketing because Democrats are too soft on crime, both of which just aren't true. Tell us what happened there. Yeah, you know, I think the simple answer here is really the true one, right? It's like this because of politics. And it's also like this because of national tension around race. Look, Republicans have been running on tough on crime policy for decades.

Like, this is what they do, right? As have Democrats, by the way. But at least Democrats have gotten a bit more progressive on the issue over the past few years. But, you know, traditionally, like telling voters that your opponent is making them more unsafe. It's a very salient political message. It works. You can scare people into voting for your side. And this is basically the message that created mass incarceration. Right. That like led to millions of people in prison every year. And after the George Floyd protests of 2020, Republicans have really weaponized criminal justice reform to get votes. They've really, really weaponized what was a fight against state and police violence and made it seem like it is driving a national crime increase.

You know, if you pick a random Republican candidate running right now, I mean, you've seen the commercials. We've talked about them, right? If you ask pretty much any Republican candidate, they're going to tell you that crime is up because Democrats defunded the police. That couldn't be less true. The 2020 rise in crime, first of all, it happened everywhere, red and blue states and cities, rural, urban, white, black.

Like, it's not just a Democratic area phenomenon. But it's also true that police budgets have largely increased since 2020. We have done the opposite of defunding the police. And yet that narrative persists. Yeah, you mentioned those political ads. I've been seeing so many of them in these, you know, few days leading up to the election. And many of them say this exact same narrative here. So what exactly did cause the rise in crime?

Yeah, it's a really good question. And the truth is that crime is a complicated term, right? It's a result of many different social factors. It can't be simplified into an easy cause and effect narrative. Different things cause different crimes. Different neighborhoods are driven by different things. But at least it's actually normally more complicated than what we saw in 2020, right?

Because in 2020, there was a pretty clear reason that crime shifted. What do you think it was? You know, I'm just going to make a guess that that thing we call Miss Funky Covadena had something to do with it. Funky Covadena is the culprit. We know what happened, right?

We all experienced an unprecedented, traumatic, ground-shifting event as a country, as a world. And it caused a lot of uncertainty and instability. And instability is a real contributor to quote-unquote crime, right? And the pandemic made everyone unstable. You know, people lost jobs. They suddenly had to homeschool. They didn't have an income. People suffering from domestic abuse were trapped with their abusers. You know, we all felt scared and isolated. And I can say it was a year unlike any I'd experienced. You know, it was a major upheaval. And so there's absolutely just

no way it didn't have a market impact on the increase in crime rates. But that's not what's getting blamed, right? Because that's not convenient politically. There's just one other thing I want to say about this narrative of skyrocketing crime. You know, if Republican politicians were actually concerned about ending crime, they'd focus on preventing it, not just punishing it, right? They'd invest in the front end tools and policies. They'd invest in schools. They'd invest in social services. They'd invest in a higher minimum wage. But it seems like the only thing many politicians on the right especially are willing to invest in is more cops and more prisons. And it's just more evidence, of course, that this political weaponization is not exactly

in good faith and that solving the problem isn't the priority of the Republican politicians who continue to wring their hands. We know how to solve crime. We know how to solve crime. But it takes investment that both political parties, but especially one, really don't like to make. And so the question is, if they really care about this, what are they willing to do about it? These are great questions, Josie.

These are great questions. They don't answer me, though. They don't answer me. Of course they don't answer me though they don't answer me of course they don't thank you for that now on to an international story about folks playing around with missiles and by playing around I mean seemingly preparing for an attack of some sort and no FYI this is not about Russia or Ukraine so So on Thursday, North Korea tried to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile toward Japan. Oh boy.

The test failed mid-flight, sending the missile splashing into the Sea of Japan, but not before triggering Japan's security systems and air raid alarms. This came just a day after their previous test on Wednesday, in which North Korea fired at least 23 short-range missiles off its east and west coasts, one of which landed about 100 miles from a South Korean island. It was North Korea's largest deployment ever in a single day.

So now the entire region is on alert. Okay, so before we get into exactly why all of this is happening, can we backtrack a little? Intercontinental ballistic missile? Sounds kind of like a, you know, music group. Like a punk rock band, maybe? Yeah, but I don't think it's a punk rock band. I don't think that's what you're talking about. Oh no, it is not. So an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, or ICBM, is sort of what it sounds like. It's a missile that can go a very long distance, and particularly here, potentially across continents. They're designed to carry nuclear weapons and drop them on whatever

the designated target is. The only countries that have operational ICBMs right now are Russia, the United States, China, France, India, the UK, and of course, North Korea. Now, even though this test from North Korea was a failure, it's evidence that North Korea is making progress with their weapons of mass destruction, because back in March, a missile exploded shortly after taking off, right? And now, at least this latest failure, the missile has kind of, you know, it had a longer trajectory before it, you know, went into the Sea of Japan. Also last month, we mentioned on the show a successful test launch of a missile that theoretically could have reached the U.S. territory of Guam. And so they're doing the tinkering that they need to do behind the scenes,

right, to be able to launch these weapons against whoever they want whenever they're ready. Now, Japan's prime minister described this latest launch as, quote, a violent action and said that they, quote, will not be permissible. That kind of like leads me to a question I have, which is like, all of this really seems to be an aggressive move on behalf of North Korea. They're essentially taunting Japan and other countries. Why? Why are they doing this? Why right now? Why this way? Yeah, so tensions have been rising around the Korean Peninsula for a few months now. And a quick geography lesson,

Japan is right off the east coast of North and South Korea. So it's in this region. Got it. North Korea has basically said that its actions are in response to quote unquote provocations by its neighbors. And by provocation, North Korea is actually talking about military drills that the three countries have been doing recently in the region. One of those drills, which started earlier this week between South Korean and the United States militaries, is actually an annual training exercise, right? And so it's not the attack or the threat that North Korea is making it seem to be. This is something that South Korea and the United States have done, you know, for years at this point.

Right. And according to experts, North Korea is kind of deliberately ramping up tensions with its neighbors, possibly building to something bigger, such as a nuclear test or a full long range ballistic missile test out into the Pacific or both. And they say all of this has a political objective, largely because it follows a pattern that North Korea's leadership has already used, both in 2010 and 2017, in which they ramp up tensions to a frightening level. And then they call for engagement and concessions from South Korea, Japan, and the United States. It's also been stated that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, you know, might be feeling his oats and feeling froggy, if you know what I mean, largely because, you know, his BFF Vladimir Putin and Russia have been throwing their nuclear threats around all willy-nilly. And so the experts are saying that it's emboldening Kim Jong-un and North Korea

to not only continue shoring up their weapons of mass destruction, but testing them and shooting them in the direction of their neighboring countries. And on that note, the United States said on Wednesday that North Korea has been secretly sending weapons to Russia to help them in the war against Ukraine. And so there's not really a good picture at all when it comes to this nuclear weapon discussion in that region of the world. It's not a good picture at all. No, it's really not. And so, of course, we will keep an eye on this story and keep y'all updated on its various developments.

But that's the latest for now. Let's get to some headlines. Headlines. Imran Khan, the foreign prime minister of Pakistan, was shot on Thursday in what his allies believe was a politically motivated assassination attempt. Khan was leading a protest march on the way to the country's capital of Islamabad as part of his campaign to regain power when a man opened fire on his convoy. Khan was hit in the leg, but is said to be in stable condition, though one person was killed and at least nine other people were injured in the attack. A suspect was arrested at the scene. Khan was forced out of office back in April after a no-confidence vote. He has since staged numerous rallies claiming that his successor and the United States both conspired to remove him

from power. U.S. embassy officials in Moscow Thursday met with Brittany Greiner at the Russian prison where she's being held. It was the first time American diplomats have seen the WNBA star since she was sentenced to nine and a half years behind bars on drug charges in early August. A State Department spokesperson tweeted after the meeting that those officials, quote, saw firsthand her tenacity and perseverance despite her present circumstances. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that freeing Greiner and other detained Americans continues to be a top priority. Tens of thousands of student workers across the 10-campus University of California system overwhelmingly voted to authorize a strike on Wednesday to demand higher wages and better working conditions. Those workers include graduate students, teaching assistants, and postdocs. They could walk off the job as early as November 14th, just before final season.

The neck-breaking speed that our culture forgives men who did terrible things was put on display Thursday when Johnny Depp was revealed to be a surprise guest in Rihanna's annual Savage Fenty fashion show, which will stream on Amazon Prime. Depp's spotlight moment follows his defamation trial against his ex-wife Amber Heard, who accused him of abuse. The jury partially sided with Depp and he was awarded over $10 million, but he was still charged with a single count of defamation. The actor actually filed to appeal that court decision on Wednesday, and this won't be his first time back on a stage. Hollywood welcomed Depp back with open arms back in August

when he appeared on stage at the VMAs dressed as an astronaut. You know, we don't really talk too negatively about a one Rihanna. However, in this particular situation, I need to know what's going on.

What is going on? Maybe she doesn't know. I don to know what's going on. What is going on? Why? Maybe she doesn't know. I don't know what's going on here. I hope she's listening. If you want to know more about what's up, just ask us. We are here for you. Just ask us.

My Lord. Truly. And we need to talk about the troubling trend of absentee tech CEOs. As Elon Musk annoys the whole world with his new toy, Twitter, the first prototype of one of his earlier ideas, the Hyperloop, has been demolished in California. The underground tunnel will be replaced with a parking lot for SpaceX employees. And if you want to understand why this is kind of juicy, you have to know a little bit about the history of the Hyperloop. Musk described it as a way to revolutionize travel, which would transport

people from LA to San Francisco in 30 minutes. But after years of hyping the technology, all he's built is a mile-long tunnel that Teslas can drive through. Twitter employees would probably prefer it if Musk focused more on his tunnels. Layoffs at the company started Friday morning, and the New York Times reported that 50% of them are set to lose their jobs. Wow. That's an enormous number of employees. Yeah.

That's like over 3,000, 3,500 people. Yeah. And it's really unfortunate. I mean, we knew that Elon was going to, for lack of a better word, shake things up. Right. But this is horrible. He and a few others are supposed to be the kings of the economy. And here they are coming in and firing thousands of people. Yeah. I have questions. Don't we all? And those are the

headlines. We'll be back after some ads to look at how the world is mourning a beloved 3D elf. It's Friday WOD Squad. And for today's Tim Check, we're discussing the harmful environmental effects of everyone in the world reading one book. A memorial to a Harry Potter character on a beach in Wales is reportedly contributing to pollution. The character is Dobby, the house elf, and the memorial site is at a filming location where he dies in the movie Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1. For years, Harry Potter fans have left painted pebbles at the site, as well as socks, since receiving a sock from his former master is what allowed Dobby to be free in the books. Environmental officials had considered tearing down the memorial entirely over concerns that it could harm the beach's ecosystem,

but last week they changed course and issued a release simply asking fans to stop leaving a bunch of foolishness there. So Josie, what is your take on this situation? I know you have thoughts. I have so many thoughts, including the entire point of this book is A, it's made up, and B, giving the elf a sock. It's ridiculous that this is the system. This is bad. The house elf system is like slavery. You're not supposed to endorse this.

And keep your socks on. Nobody wants your socks. And that is a rule. I hope everybody listening never forgets and tells their friends. Because clearly people don't know how to act. You know, I find this to be a weird story, largely because Dobby is not real. Dobby's not real. If this was like a memorial for somebody real and like you felt a connection to their work and you wanted to leave a little, a little gift, you know, for the ancestors, I could let it pass.

But this is a fake character. I don't get it. People take things too far. And I would say that is the theme of many episodes of the show. Listen, I try not to yuck on people's yum, okay? But keep your socks on. You know. Go say a little speech for Dobby.

Put a stone there. Keep your socks on. Pour one a little speech for Dobby. Put a stone there. Keep your socks on. Pour one out for him and keep it going. Okay? And pour one out for J.K. Rowling while you're at it since lots of people are not who they once were. Well, you know, you got a point there. And just like that, we've checked our temps. They're colder than Lucius Malfoy's heart.

And I love that for us. One more thing before we go. This is the last weekend before Election Day. And just a reminder, doom scrolling or riding the polar coaster won't change the outcome on November 8th. But making your plan to vote and helping others do the same absolutely will. Last month, we saw over 10,000 of you volunteer to get out the vote with Vote Save America. And if you haven't signed up yet, it's not too late. Head over to votesaveamerica.com slash volunteer now to find opportunities near you. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, keep the Hyperloop alive in your heart, and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just the Harry Potter books exclusively, like me, What A Day is also a nightly newsletter.

Check it out and subscribe at Cricut.com slash subscribe. I'm Josie Duffy Rice. I'm Trayvon Anderson. And R.I.P. Dobby. But I'm keeping my socks. See how we should do that and also keep our socks on? It's possible. It's possible.

All of us have experienced grief and kept our socks on. So what is the problem? Well, today's a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Bill Lance. Jazzy Marine and Raven Yamamoto are our associate producers. Our head writer is John Milstein. And our executive producers are Lita Martinez, Michael Martinez, and Sandy Gerard. Production support comes from Leo Duran, Ari Schwartz, and Matt DeGroot. With additional promotional and social support from Awa Okulate, Julia Beach, and Jordan Silver.

Our theme music is by Colin Gillyard and Kshaka.