What A Day - What’s the Method to the Midterm Madness?

Episode Date: October 12, 2026

The 2026 midterm elections are anxiety inducing. Will Democrats take back the House? The Senate? Can we believe the polls? 2016 PTSD is getting real, so Jane spoke with POLITICO's Dasha Burns to break down what's really going on this cycle.Show Notes: ‘The Conversation with Dasha Burns’ – https://www.politico.com/podcasts/the-conversation Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail]

You can't get away from the fact that there's a war that is making things more expensive for Americans. And up until very recently, the administration has not really armed any of these campaigns with the tools, with the message, to be able to sing from the same songbook on it. And the president keeps sending different signals. And that that's made life a whole lot harder for Republicans this cycle. It's Monday, October 12th. I'm Jane Koston. And this is Wadaday. After President Donald Trump said Saturday that Ukraine needs a new president because Ukraine,

which is at war with Russia, was bombing Russian oil facilities, Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, responded on Fox News today, reminding everyone that Ukraine is at war with Russia. Now we have attacks. Each one hour, Iranian Shahits attack us. Each hour, they attack us. And we are not speaking about dozens of Sheikhits. We are speaking about. about thousands of drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, how people can vote. Of course, Trump does not care about Ukraine, but he does care about the cost of diesel, which is why he announced on Friday that the U.S. would be importing diesel fuel from Russia. Now, you might remember that Trump signed a sanctions bill a month ago that would let him put up to

100% tariffs on the largest purchasers of Russian fuel. So I guess he's going to tariff himself. Federal agents searched the home of Minnesota Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar today in a massive escalation of a criminal investigation in the final weeks of her re-election bid. Omar said she will, quote, not be silenced and called the search of her home the latest escalation in Trump's intimidation campaign. The Justice Department confirmed the search, but the nature and scope of the investigation remains, unclear. Trump and Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, are considering firing.

U.S. Ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, after a series of reports alleging she was engaged in improper and possibly illegal conduct before and during her tenure in Athens. For example, the Wall Street Journal reported that there was audio of Gilfoyle bragging about being flown in private jets and telling an American businessman she wanted to help her get into a dinner held by Eric Trump, quote, you know, I can deliver the world to you, which you deserve. Adding, quote, I'm going to make you a lot of fucking money.

So, you know, not great. A senior U.S. official said Sunday that Trump and Rubio are, quote, extremely pissed off by Gilfoyle's reported conduct and would likely decide on what action to take this week after the holiday. I am, quote, not very surprised Kimberly Gilfoyle is involved. in all of this. Remember those taxpayer-funded propaganda ads that Trump was trying to tout his public service announcements when they were clearly just ego boosts airing during NFL football? Well, a federal judge ordered Sunday that he must cancel any remaining television commercials

paid for with millions of dollars in taxpayer money to promote his political message, even as the administration said the ad campaign was coming to an end. So, when am I getting my... refund for the tax dollars I paid so that I could watch Trump look creepy during an otherwise pleasant NFL Sunday. But I want to talk about what we're learning about the biggest midterms contests. Joining me is Dasha Burns, co-author of Politico Playbook and host of The Conversation with Dasha Burns. Welcome to Wideray. Yay, Jane. Thanks for having me. So you spoke with Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donald's earlier this month. And I was interested

because he told you that Trump, quote, doesn't want yes men and that Donald's can do his own thing when it comes to Florida, when it comes to data centers and the host of other issues. Now, I don't believe that Trump doesn't want yes men, and I don't think you do either. But what did that answer tell you about how Trump is doing in Florida? Well, look, one of the reasons I was really excited to talk to Donald's is because he is having to do this high wire act when it comes to the president. The reason Byron Donald's is Byron Donald's in politics today is largely because of Trump. He was an acolyte early on. Trump endorsed him and cleared the field for him in the gubernatorial primary in Florida.

But he really put Byron Donald's on the map. And so you're seeing all over in these races in this cycle, Republicans start to try to distance themselves. It is especially hard for someone like Donald's given he grew up, basically, politically, in Trump world. And so we saw him before I sat down with him sort of change his website. There are really very few Trump references on his website now, which he says is just because it was a long planned, you know, change to the camera. campaign vibes. But that answer, the yes-man answer, is kind of the best that he can do in this moment. He cannot afford to fully put distance between himself and the president. But you saw in Florida, Republican Congresswoman Maria Salazar release an ad standing in front of the White

House saying, Mr. President, your immigration policy is bad for Latinos in Florida and you are losing voters. I mean, that's the contrast that you have to sort of take into consideration when you're thinking about what Byron Donald's is having to do. Like, there's a Florida Republican Congresswoman telling Trump that his policies are bad. Byron Donald just cannot afford to get away with that. And so I think he is doing the best that he can to not shun the president, but also, you know, try to carve out some independence. Now, in contrast, which I thought was interesting, is that you also spoke with Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, who she told you that Texas voters are in a, quote, postpartisan moment, which I understand.

It's funny because you have Byron Donalds who's running as a Republican in a Republican state, but still has to kind of steer away from the most important Republican and Republican politics, but you also have a candidate in Texas who is arguing that she's a different kind of Democrat. She's running a different kind of campaign. She's got three-time Abbott voters in her ads. She's making this argument that this is beyond party. What evidence would you need to see to determine whether or not this postpartisan Texas is real? Yeah.

I mean, Texas has been the white whale for Democrats for so long. We can talk about the James Taylor-Ruco-Kin of it all. To me, I was really. shocked to see the numbers in the gubernatorial race. Like the Senate race is, of course, everyone's super focused on because it's a national story and it means a lot for control of Congress. But Ken Paxton is just a bad candidate. And so what was more shocking to me was to see the incumbent Republican governor of Texas, of the Republican state suddenly have to spend money and fight to ward off this challenge from a Latina Democrat for the governor's seat. I mean, that to me is

is totally shocking. I mean, I do think, Hinoosa's chances are lower than Tala Ricos, but the fact that it's even a conversation is absolutely mind-boggling. And she has been almost, like, put blinders on

when it comes to any sort of cultural issues. She is running away from the culture wars in a huge way. It was very difficult to get her to even engage on any of that stuff. And it's wild to think how different this moment is for Democrats like her. I mean, we talked about abortion. Of course, Texas has some really, some of the most aggressive anti-abortion laws in the country. And when I asked her

about it, she basically said, listen, I don't think there's much that I can do as governor. And that's not the issue that I'm going to be focused on. And like, if you heard a Democrat say that in the 22 midterms, like, they would be over, right? I think they would have been canceled almost immediately. But Hino Hosa doubles down on that. She just does not want to touch LGBTQ issues, abortion issues, anything that has that sort of culture war flavor. She's like, not me. I'm not doing it. And pivots to the economy, pivots to data centers, which is one of the ways that she's been

able to make inroads with some of those three-time Trump and Abbott voters, where AI is not a partisan issue. It is a polarizing issue. But it is not a partisan issue as much as the president is trying to make it one. You have both Democrats and Republicans right now trying to. to take the posture of like, we're going to be aggressive when it comes to big tech. We're going to protect communities from this stuff. And Hinojosa has been really successful in going to places in the panhandle and in rural parts of Texas

and the border areas of Texas and having those conversations. And it's just mind-boggling what is going on in some of these states right now. Yeah, it was funny because we were just talking about Florida. and you've seen Florida Governor Rhonda Santos took a very anti-AIA, anti-Big Tech, anti-Data center stance, which is not how Trump feels. But do you think that something I've been thinking about is that I've noticed that successful Democrats, the ones who, sure, they get a lot of money from Act Blue, but they tend to do, they do well in state. They focus on local issues. They focus on the issues that their state, their area cares about. They're not trying to make their race into a national story, even if it becomes a.

one. But in contrast, we're seeing from Republicans who are basically like, I will go on Fox News, I will go anywhere, I will talk about all of this like kind of national stuff. I'll make everything into a national story. That contrast seems very different from what this looked like. You know, you mentioned Tala Rico. This feels a little bit different from how previous White Whale, Texas Democratic Senate candidates have looked. Yeah, totally. I mean, you think back to the Beto days, and I still remember that Instagram shot of Beyonce with a Beto hat. It was a vogue shoot. It was a vogue photo shoot for me where I was just like, oh, oh, boy.

Yeah. And like Tala Rica did the Casey Musgraves thing. But like I do think that, listen, the reality is that the Democratic brand nationally is still in the toilet. People don't like the Democratic Party. They do like individual candidates. And so the smart candidates are focused on their own. race on defining themselves. I mean, Talar Rico has not campaigned with a national Democrat, except Obama, like they went to

the taco thing. But he has said, I think, pretty clear signals that he does not want or need at this point. Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom coming in. He is more popular in Texas than any other national Democrat that you could name right now. And so it wouldn't be helpful. In fact, that might be harmful. I also sat down with Reverend Adam Hamilton in Kansas, which is a whole other. I mean, we can dig into that. But he told me, like, I don't want Kamala Harris here. She can stay in California.

Chuck Schumer. He said he told Chuck Schumer to his face that he is a liability in Kansas. And by the way, that Schumer Super Pack is actually spending in that race right now because in part, I think because of his stance on this stuff and he's so candid about it, it actually is a real contest, which again, Kansas is totally crazy. But I think that's the lesson that, like, there's a world in which Democrats learn all the wrong lessons from this midterms if they win big. I think Charlie Cook said, like, it's not a blue wave.

It's a red undertow. I think that that's sort of true. But I also think that it is very specific individual candidates that are doing a great job because they're locally focused. and there's just an absolute anti-establishment, anti-incumbent sentiment across the country right now. It's also why in parallel you're seeing Republicans potentially do better in Minnesota in the Senate race there than people were expecting because voters are mad at Democratic government of Minnesota and there might be some backlash there. So I think it's less that the Democratic Party is like rising from the ashes suddenly and much more that people. are just pissed off and want to see change. Right. I think it's also important whenever we're

talking about how the Democratic Party is viewed. A lot of the people who are most mad at the Democratic Party are Democrats. They are Democrats who are like, you guys suck. What's going on? How do we keep losing to these people? Which is why you're definitely seeing a much more, how to put this, pugnacious stance from Democrats running in Michigan. And as you mentioned, in Kansas. I actually wanted to ask you about your conversation with Adam Hamilton. He was the founding pastor of the country's largest United Methodist congregation. And as someone who attended a UMC church for a while, I can see why he's very good at handling arguments and disagreements because that's what they do. That's their whole thing. But you asked him whether or not

he thought Trump was a Christian. Why was that an important question to ask? I think that in this moment, Democrats and Republicans are activating religious voters in different ways. And to see people like Tala Rico, people like Adam Hamilton, Democrats wear their religion on their sleeve in this way that I think we really haven't seen for a really long time. And there's a debate, I think, among religious voters of what they actually want to see from from leadership and how they want to see faith handled. And evangelical voters flock to Trump. I mean, he was built up into sort of a Christ-like figure among a certain faction of the MAGA base, which stands in such contrast to the way he actually behaves in public and in private. I mean, to sort of who he is and how he is.

and how he represents himself day to day. And I wanted to understand how Adam Hamilton, who is so faith forward in his identity and in how he runs his campaign, like how he sees that. And in that context, too, whether he, you know, sees an opportunity for Democrats to be able to reclaim some of that faith.

I mean, there's been this trend where religion, the American flag, like patriotism has become, in our American culture, kind of like conservative-coded, which has been strange to me because I don't think that necessarily needs to be the case. And Democrats are trying to take some of that back now. And I think that debate and that tug of war is a really fascinating one. We'll get back to my conversation with Dasha Burns in just a moment. What a day is brought to you by FreshBooks.

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And when Quince asks you where you heard about them, let them know it was what a day. It's the best way to support the show. Let's get back to my conversation with Joshua Burns. So let's talk about Trump. Trump is actually back in Ohio today. He sure is. His second visit in 10 days. Now, he has said, like, pretend I'm on the ballot and Democrats are like, bet.

Let's do it. You know, our voters are incredibly motivated. But in Ohio specifically, both the Senate race and the gubernatorial race are far closer than Republicans expected. What's going on there beyond the Trump of it all? It's the environment. I think there's a lot of the same story kind of across the board right now. Republicans can't get away from the not paid for advertising that is everywhere, which is the gas stations, like huge, huge signs constantly throughout your drive saying the price of gas is too high and it's because of actions by this White House. But I think the, it's just impossible for Republicans to run away from from the reality. You know, I watched Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, has been campaigning relentlessly for Republicans.

And I followed him on the trail in Arizona. And he was talking about the big, beautiful bill, no tax on TIFs, no tax on Social Security, the border being closed. And there was this massive elephant in their room named Iran that he had a much harder time talking about. Mostly didn't bring it up. And when he did, he was like, well, there's this war. Like, don't worry about it. We're going to, we're going to wrap it up. It's going to be wrapped up ASAP.

Of course, then the president comes out and says, nope, not going to be over till the midterm. So he's not exactly helping Republicans with that messaging. And that's actually been the frustration that I've heard from a lot of Republican operatives. like, you can't get away from the fact that there's a war that is making things more expensive for Americans. And up until very recently, the administration has not really armed any of these campaigns with the tools, with the message to be able to sing from the same songbook on it. And the president keeps sending different signals. And that's made life a whole lot harder for Republicans this cycle. Yeah. It's funny because you're seeing, you know,

I saw a Fox News piece today that essentially argued that, like, oh, well, the issue is that what Ohioans want is populism. And I'm like, no, no, Steve Shabbitt won like a billion house races in a row while being the most boring person alive. That's, no, no, that's not what they're looking for. Mm-mm. That's where that's where I'm from. Like, that's not what they're doing. No, no, that's not. And again, I think, like, I think there's a good chance wrong lessons are going to be learned. Like, you know, if Abdul Al-Said wins in Michigan, it's suddenly going to be like, yeah, super progressive left, like, DSA, like, this is the way that everyone should go. It's like, no, like, there are very specific conditions that are happening right now. Right, there's going to be a lot of motivated reasoning. I mean, Abdul has already been saying, like, if I win, I'm like, I'm the road through. through 28 runs through me, basically. And, you know, he very well might end up wielding a lot of influence. But I think that there are a lot of other factors at play that Democrats really need to think about, you know, so I think sometimes when you win, and if that happens, and again, like, who knows, polling is crazy. Right. I think it, I think right now, actually, some of the anecdotal evidence that I've been seeing is, is more compelling to me than the

polls just because the polls freak me out. Right. We have been burned so many times. Right. I mean, to that point, I keep thinking about how, like, you know, the fact that the GOP is like, we're going to pull money out of North Carolina and we're going to put it into South Carolina. That's the moment where I was like, oh, they're worried, worried. Like, worried. Right. Right. Like, I, um, did some reporting for playbook a couple of weeks ago on the front row Joe's, which if you have not been to a million and Trump rallies like I have, you might not know, but they're the guys and gals, by the way, that, like, spend their lives traveling around to as many Trump rallies as possible. Like, many of them have, like, sold or given up their homes, got RVs, and they get there

ahead of time, and they're, like, always as close to the front as possible. Trump shouts them out. And I talked to two of them who have had complete 180s on Trump. And these are people, again, who, like, dedicated their lives since, like, 2016. to this man and to following him and to supporting him. And two of them. Now, there are many others

that are still staunchly supportive of him, but if people who have had such unshakable faith for so long are now breaking from the president, I'm like, that says, that says a lot to me. And you know what? It's the Epstein files and the Iran War are the two things that have them just absolutely. devastated and feeling betrayed by this guy. So someone who hasn't been devastated by Trump is Elon Musk,

who's poured nearly $300 million into GOP campaigns this cycle after saying he wasn't going to get in politics again. But after what happened with Wisconsin Supreme Court race last year where Elon was front and center and didn't help at all, is Elon or the specter of Elon or big tech, for example, and albatross for Republicans? I don't think Elon as a character is helpful for Republicans. I think his money is. As far as money, like we'll see how much money in politics is a fact. I mean, it's obviously a factor,

but whether or not it can pull someone like Ken Paxton over the finish line. Well, I think there'll be a lot of talk about how much dollars can influence voters and where there might be like, you know, more. where the return on investment might fall flat. But no, Elon himself does not help at this point. But I do think he's this time around putting less of himself out there and more of his cash. And I think that is a smart move on his part.

I mean, I think, yeah, they'll take his money happily. Will they want him, like, jumping around on the stage, flashing his belly and running around with a chainsaw? I don't think that will be as desirable for these candidates. No, that sounds terrible. So we have, Reuters Ipsos has Trump's approval at 32%. Democrats leave the generic ballot by about nine points. Americans are unhappy with the economy at historic levels.

Like if you, you know, if it's the day after election day and Democrats take Congress, that would be basically the story here. But are there races that people aren't talking about enough? or that people, you know, haven't been discussing where you're like, this is a bellwether. These are races where if this goes in this particular direction, it will tell us a lot about this particular election or the future for the next two years. I keep feeling like there's going to be a surprise somewhere. There are a lot of states that we spend a lot of time talking about right now in the final stretch.

where I'm like, is something crazy going to happen in Mississippi? Like, you know, is, um, is Nebraska going to be wild? Like, I, I just feel like there's, there, there might be something that pops off that that none of us were, we're really expecting to. Um, I, I also, I also think that there is, um, some caveating that that Democrats should be doing right now because, look, um, there simply, because of redistricting, there simply aren't as many seats to swing. Like, there is no way to win like 70, you know, to swing like 70 seats right now because

the redistricting has just narrowed the margins that are even humanly possible in the House. But I do think that Republicans between redistricting, between the insane amount of cash, And, you know, a lot of state legislatures that are Republican control that could have an impact on election like implementation and execution, you know, voting access, all of that stuff. There are advantages that Republicans have. And I don't think we can totally discount that. I will say, though, on the redistricting front, I think watching all of those districts around the border in Texas is going to be really. really, really interesting because voters of color are angry and they're also, and they're not a monolith and there's a lot of different communities and there are a lot of caveats I can say here, but all of the people that I've been talking to, both voters, experts, pollsters, researchers, people doing focus groups, there are larger trends. Voters of color are angry. The ones, the Latino

voters especially that voted for Trump in 2024, feel like they're not getting what they were promised, and they're either going to stay home or potentially vote for Democrats, not all of them, but some of them. And they're also fed up with Democrats. And so there's no more taking black and brown voters for granted. You just can't. Even Kamala Harris was telling black voters recently, like, you need to be more transactional. And the folks that I've been talking to that are organizing black voters are saying that they, you know, don't stop promising people stuff. Talk about what you have actually done.

And if you've actually done stuff to benefit the community, then that's a way you can get their vote. If you haven't, like, see you later, you know. And that, I think, is going to be a huge, huge shift in the way both Democrats and Republicans calculate because Democrats have taken these voters for granted. have assumed they were going to stay with them. And Republicans, I mean, this is one point that Byron Donald's made in our conversation. He's advertising his ads, his outreach. He is trying very deliberately to reach black voters. And he said, you know, one of the reasons that Republicans haven't really been doing that in the past is because of the consultant class because they, like, discounted the idea that you could actually have productive conversations there. And he's trying to do

it. And so I think both parties are now going to be battling it. it out for these folks who aren't really, you know, buying what anyone's selling right now. Dasha, thank you so much for joining me. This is so fun. Thanks, Jane. That was my conversation with Dasha Burns, co-author of Political Playbook and host of The Conversation with Dasha Burns. Before we go, Election Day is right around the corner, which means you only have a few weeks left to do everything you can to make sure your voice is heard.

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to get out and vote. Go to Vote Save America.com to learn how you can help ahead of election day. Remember, this whole democracy thing only works if we do. This message has been paid for by Votesave America. It is not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a review. Let's enjoy our continuing series of Ken Paxton leaks and tell your friends to listen.

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