What A Day - Why Iran Spells Trouble For The GOP

Episode Date: April 13, 2026

A very tired-looking Vice President JD Vance emerged from 21 hours of high-stakes peace talks on Sunday to say no deal has been made to end the Iran war — a failure that comes with serious economic and political consequences. It’s an election year, and Congressional Republicans are getting jumpy with their majorities on the line. So, to help unpack what all of this means for the midterms, we spoke with Daniella Diaz. She’s a reporter covering politics and Congress for NOTUS.And in headlines, JD Vance strikes out in Hungary, Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell suspends his campaign for Governor of California, and the Artemis II crew returns safely to Earth.Show Notes: Check out Daniella's work – www.notus.org/daniella-diaz Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

It's Monday, April 13th. I'm Greg Walters in for Jane Koston, and this is What Today? The show that agrees with what former First Lady Michelle Obama told comedian Hassan Minaj about the current state of America on a recent episode of her podcast. I think we're in just a janky version, right? Yeah, janky's right. It's a janky version right now. May I curse, Mrs. Obama? You may.

Yeah, shit is jank right now. It's super janked. I can't disagree. Things are super jank. On today's show, Vice President J.D. Vance strikes out in both Pakistan and Hungary. And the crew of the Artemis II hits a home run with their return to Earth. But let's start with the Iran War and how President Donald Trump's failure to wrap it up is making Republicans very, very nervous about the upcoming midterms.

On the day he was sworn in, Trump gave us a very clear way to judge his sense. second term. We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. None of that has aged well. On Sunday, a very tired-looking J.D. Vance emerged from 21 hours of high-stakes peace talks to say, we go back to the United States having not come to an agreement. That must have been a long trip home.

The failure to end this war comes with serious economic and political. consequences. For starters, unless the U.S. can somehow unblock the Strait of Hormuz waterway, 20% of the world's oil will remain off limits, which puts the U.S. economy in real jeopardy. Trump has been promising us that higher oil prices would be a blip. Now, he's not so sure. Here he is on Fox's Sunday morning futures with Maria Bardo. So do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections? I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be. It could be or the same or maybe a little bit higher.

The gap between promises made and promises very much not kept is causing serious blowback at the top of Maga Mount Olympus. We've seen a furious backlash from the likes of big-name MAGA influencers like Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Green, and Candice Owens. Take Alex Jones, who used to be one of Trump's biggest fans. Here's how he talks about Trump now. I'm done. Because you're an idiot.

It's always weird when the conspiracy theorist starts making sense. Congressional Republicans are also getting jumpy because their majorities are on the line. Higher oil prices are the last thing they want in an election year, especially when they're the result of Trump's War of Choice in the Middle East. To help me unpack what all this means for the midterms, I spoke to Daniela Diaz. She's a reporter covering politics in Congress for notice. Daniela, welcome to what today. Thanks for having me. So you've been talking to a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill and out in the campaign trail.

And as the midterms get closer and this conflict refuses to end, how worried are they? Very concerned. I know that there's a lot of concern amongst rank and file Republicans, Greg, that there is no end in sight about this war. The news that has come out in the last couple of days, even in the last day, has not been positive when these peace deal talks are not reaching a conclusion. And the reality is that these Republicans who want to campaign on domestic women, wins who feel that President Donald Trump was elected for president on an America First Policy Agenda don't know how to explain this war to their constituents. I've talked to a lot of Republican House members. I won't name them because a lot of them only really talk to me

because they talk to me on background, off the record. But they do not know how to explain this war and what it's costing. The nuance of it, it's not really breaking through to the average American low-information voter. So there's a lot of concern with Republican lawmakers that this could drag on and it could be harder for them to be able to defend it as we get closer to November. A source close to the White House told political last week, quote, this war in Iran almost cements the fact that we lose the midterms in November, the Senate and the House. And my thought was, the Senate, really? Is the Senate actually in play here? I think yes. And if Democrats are able to get people to the polls and have historic turnout in

November, which is what they're hoping for, what they're expecting, we could see some scenarios where some of these seats flip and Democrats could take back the majority. It's certainly more likely when I talk to experts and leadership, Democratic leadership, now that it might have been even just a couple of months ago just because of the way things have turned out in the White House, the things that we've seen President Donald Trump do that has. has been angering voters across the country. They're feeling buyer's remorse for supporting him when they see the gas prices go up. Don't quite understand why their gas prices are going up for a war. They don't necessarily understand we're in. They don't understand why he might be doing renovations at the White

House and spending money on that when they have a hard time being able to pay rent, seeing their taxes go up. So those issues are really going to make voters turn out potentially in November in the way it looks right now, not great for Republicans. Democrats have had a strong run of showings in special elections this year. Last week, a liberal judge won a Wisconsin Supreme Court race by roughly 20 points. Do these special elections mean anything? Yes, absolutely. That's why we pay so much attention to these very random special elections as reporters.

Another race that I watched closely, not as much as the Wisconsin special election, but I watched what happened when Marjorie Taylor Green's seat. She obviously resigned from Congress in January. and she represented a ruby red district in Georgia. However, the Republican pick and the candidate that won that seat didn't win by the numbers that Marjorie Taylor Green has won in the past, which is a litmus test, I would say a vibe check for where things are right now and how voters feel. If I were a Republican member running for a re-election, I'd be paying close attention to these numbers across the country in these special elections. I'm going to flash back a couple of months. We saw the governor's race in Virginia and New Jersey. We saw Democrats win those seats and they won on the issue of affordability.

Affordability is something that Democrats are sticking to and campaigning on, and it's a very strong message ahead of what we're seeing the Trump administration do abroad. And in speaking out against that and speaking out against the Iran War and the attentions from the White House and speaking out against the Epstein files, there's a lot of issues. that Democrats could really hit the ground running on these next couple months and have been, which could be really beneficial for them ahead of the November midterms. Well, now, speaking of Marjorie Taylor Green, she is just one of a series of big MAGA names, including Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, who have been extremely critical of Donald Trump over this war. We've heard a lot less from congressional Republicans, even though they're up for re-election and have a lot at stake. Now, what's going on there?

Isn't it so interesting watching these Republican influencers, these MAGA influencers, who have always stuck with Trump, who are part of the reason why he was able to win his race in 2024 against Vice President Kamau Harris? And now we're seeing them break from him on a majority of issues that they do not understand. We're seeing them break on the Israel-Hamas war. We're seeing them break on the Iran War. and it's not great for President Trump to not have these people on their soapboxes advocating for him, promoting him. I mean, Tucker Carlson has always been a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump. He has always spoken out for President Donald Trump, and he has a massive following. The fact that Tucker Carlson is speaking out against these issues from the White House,

if I were President Donald Trump, I would be very concerned. However, what we've seen from the president is him stand by. his own beliefs and what he thinks is the right thing to do and call these MAGA influencers, you know, I don't want to use this exact words, but losers, I'm not sure that's going to work in the long run. Like I said, a lot of these folks have massive followings. A lot of their following voted for President Donald Trump. I do think it's important to remember that he still has three years to go and he needs to, you would think, want to keep his majority because that's what allows him to be able to implement his agenda. So losing them could be incredibly

difficult for him should he lose the majority in the Senate or the House or both in November because these MAGA influencers are breaking from him. So despite all these trends, Democrats are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. How can they still screw this up? Oh, there's so many ways that they could screw this up, Greg. One of the biggest things that I think could happen is if they don't stick to their message of, affordability, which they already have seen in poll after poll, is winning for them, that could be a way that they don't win in November. That's an issue that they've been running on. That's an issue that will help them. And if they get distracted, if there's infighting, it's important for Democrats to

stick together and try to seem like the adults in the room when it comes to what's happening with Republicans and President Donald Trump, who they consistently criticize. Another thing that could fail for them is if they just run on being anti-Donald Trump. That's not what polls show voters care about. Voters care about the issues. They care about being able to afford their things. That's why affordability is such a major, major win. And if they continue to run on it, that'll work. But again, should they get distracted, not have a cohesive message, worry about things that have nothing to do with the issues that American voters care about? That could be the way they screwed up. So to wrap this up, if these trends continue, what will they mean for Donald Trump's power in his second term?

It could be catastrophic for him if he does not keep the House or potentially even the Senate, considering that map's a little harder what could happen in November. I think it's important to remember here, Greg, that should the House go back to Democratic majority, that means Democrats would have investigations and subpoena power. and they're very influential important committees. Think the oversight committee, think the judiciary committee. Right now, Republicans hold that power, and they're the only ones that are able to subpoena. And should Democrats have that, they're going to start investigating the president and people around him.

So it seems that President Donald Trump might be forgetting that. And if I were him or people around him, I'd try to really try to focus on the issues that Americans care about these next couple of months in an effort to keep their majority. So it could be really damaging for him. And he won't be able to enact any of his agenda if he doesn't have the House. And if the Senate becomes Democratic too, that could really be the final nail in the coffin for anything he tries to do from the White House. It would essentially mean he's going to continue trying to bypass Congress, which we've already seen him do time and time again. But it could be even messier for him considering Democrats won't stand back maybe the way we've seen Republicans stand back. Danielle Diaz, thank you so much for being with us.

Thank you. That was my conversation with Danielle Diaz, a reporter covering politics in Congress for notice. We'll be here every day, giving you the news you need leading up to the midterms and beyond. So if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five-star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share it with your friends. We'll be right back after some ads. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Financial stress affects far more than our bank accounts.

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When life feels overwhelming, therapy can help. Sign up and get 10% off at BetterHelp.com slash Wad. That's BetterH-E-L-P-com slash Wad. What a day is brought to you by Upwork. One of the biggest growth hacks is realizing you don't have to do it all yourself. Upwork makes it easy to bring in the right freelancer when you need them, so you can stay focused on what you do best. Upwork is a one-stop platform to find, hire, and pay expert freelancers

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Visit Upwork.com right now and post your job for free. That is Upwork.com to connect with top talent. ready to help your business grow. That's UPWORK.com. Upwork.com. Here's what else we're following today. Head aligns. Well, we're going to be blockading.

It'll take a little while, but it'll be effective pretty soon. That is Trump's baffling response to Maria Barteramo on the failure of peace talks over the weekend, an American blockade on the street of Hormuz, which is interesting. Because I thought the U.S. was fighting to say. stop Iran from blockading the straitiformers. It's like when you take away the teenager's car keys, and in response, he slashes his own tires. You can't blockade me, I blockade you. Uno reverse card.

Trump seems outraged that this war has revealed the power Iran has to stop shipping in this all-important waterway. He also seems mad that Iran is reportedly demanding a fee from ships trying to get through. Trump posted on truth social that the U.S. Navy will, quote, seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that is paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. So what's next? Well, the fragile two-week ceasefire announced last week will now be put to the test.

Iran's top negotiator says the U.S. hasn't done enough to win Iran's trust. J.D. Vance said Sunday that the U.S. gave Iran its, quote, final and best offer. Those fruitless peace talks weren't the only big womp-womp in Van Goghs. France's international failure tour. Hungary's Prime Minister, Victor Orban, was ousted in a parliamentary election on Sunday after 16 consecutive years in power. His first term as prime minister began in 1998, which means this guy started running Hungary before Bill Clinton got impeached.

Yeah, it's been that long. But what does this have to do with our guy, JD? Well, last week, Vance visited Hungary to campaign for Orban, dubbing the populist leader a defender of, quote, Western civilization. Somehow, Vance's endorsement wasn't enough to seal the deal. Voters rejected Orban's far-right authoritarian policies in favor of the center-right opposition party and its pro-European Union, pro-NATO leader, Peter Mudyard.

Orban, a close ally of both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, conceded defeat and called the election result, quote, painful. No word yet on how Vance feels. Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign for Governor of California Sunday night after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN each published stories on Friday detailing allegations of sexual misconduct. Both articles feature a former staffer who said Swalwell sexually assaulted her on two separate occasions. CNN's article also included claims made by three other women who first connected with Swalwell on social media,

ranging from unsolicited nudes to ending up drunk in his hotel room unsure what happened. Swalwell denied the allegations forcefully in a statement, but on Sunday, Sunday, the Manhattan District Attorney opened an investigation into his former staffer's claims regarding the alleged assault in New York City. Swalwell also lost a ton of endorsements over the weekend, including from his fellow Democrats in Congress. And over 50 of his own former staffers called on him not only to drop out of the race, but also to resign from Congress. From the pages of Jules Verne to a modern day mission to the moon, a new chapter of the exploration of our celestial neighbor is complete. Integrity's astronauts, back on

on Earth. The crew of NASA's Artemis II landed safely off the coast of San Diego on Saturday evening, ending their successful 10-day trip around the moon. Hoo, that's a relief. The Artemis II mission was the first manned lunar flyby in more than 50 years. It confirmed that the Orion spacecraft systems can indeed operate in deep space with a crew on board, which, TBH is something I'd like to have confirmed before takeoff. The four brave astronauts on the Orion now have been farther away from Earth than any other humans in history.

And, most importantly, are home safe to tell the story. Houston, thank God, there were no problems, besides those unfortunate toilet issues. And that's the news. Before we go, if you've been following the latest headlines around policing and immigration enforcement, the Empire City Podcast Club from Crooked Ideas is the place to fully unpack it. Each week, host Chenjerai Kumunika and special guests dig into the systems behind those stories, how this power was built, who it serves, and what it means for public safety right now. Each session focuses on a new theme with space to connect the dots and ask bigger questions.

Whether you've been tracking every headline or just starting to tune in, you can be part of the conversation. We'll send a reminder before things kick off. The next session is tomorrow, April 14th at 5 p.m. Pacific time, 8 p.m. Eastern Time. sign up at crooked ideas.org slash empire city. The link is in our show notes. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, and welcome Congress back to work this week after a very long break that I'm sure was very pleasant,

and tell your friends to listen. And if you were into reading and not just about how Congress has been out of session while all this is happening, like me, what a day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I'm Greg Walters and oh, Open up the Department of Homeland Security. It's been long enough already.

Get to work. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producer is Emily Four. Our producer is Caitlin Plummer. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Joanna Case. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison

and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adrian Hill. Our theme music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.