What A Day - Will The Iran War Cost Trump The Midterms?

Episode Date: June 22, 2026

The so-called “memorandum of understanding” that might end Trump’s war in Iran has felt pretty disappointing. But here in the U.S., voters may be more focused on the final outcome, and what that means going forward. To find out how Americans are feeling about the Iran war as midterms approach, we spoke to Sarah Longwell, who knows voter sentiment better than most. She’s the publisher of The Bulwark, host of The Focus Group podcast, and author of "How To Eat An Elephant," out on September 8.And in headlines, at least five people have reportedly been arrested after Trump blamed vandals for the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool’s post-renovation blues, Alligator Alcatraz is officially shutting down, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his resignation.Show Notes: Check out Sarah's podcast – www.thebulwark.com/s/thefocusgroup Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

A lot of the Republicans who are up in 2026 are approaching it like Trump is, which is a short-term. It's all about the mid-term's kind of vision versus, hey, now that we've started this war, we've got an obligation to other countries in the region. We've got an obligation to figure out what to do about the nuclear material they have. We've got to get a deal that, you know, goes into the future and is worthwhile. But Trump doesn't think that way. Trump thinks very sort of short-term for himself. and that's how a lot of these Republicans in Congress are talking about it too.

I'm Jane Koston, and this is what a day, the show that learned of a devastating shortage that is certain to impact my family. According to the Wall Street Journal, we are running out of way protein because everyone is eating weight protein. Please think of me and my protein shakes in these trying times. On today's show, we talked to the bulwarks Sarah Longwell about how President Donald Trump's war with Iran could cost him the midterms. Before we get into all that, here's what we're following today, Monday, June 22nd.

Look, the president has made it a priority to make D.C. not only safe but beautiful. And there are several citations that have been handed out to individuals. And these are cases that will be prosecuted to the full extent. If there are more serious products that are put into the reflecting pool to create more algae or, a bigger problem than we'll consider more serious charges. U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Janine Piro, backed up President Trump's claims on Fox News Sunday that the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool has been vandalized.

At least five people have reportedly been arrested since Trump blamed some random people for the iconic pool's post-renovation blues, or, I guess, greens. Days after its $14 million renovation was completed, the pool was overtaken by algae and a layer of its blue paint began to peel. So, naturally, President Trump spent the weekend pointing the finger at Vandals.

On Monday, he wrote on True Social, quote, They took some form of knife or blade, and put a 250-foot-long gash into the beautiful facade of what took so much work, competence, and money to build and complete. In a separate post, he said they, quote, illegally put chemicals in the water. Trump has not provided any evidence for these claims. Meanwhile, big else.

Algae goes free. The notorious Florida immigration detention center, Alligator Alcatraz, is shutting down. The Miami Herald says Governor Ron DeSantis reportedly spent more than a billion dollars on the state-run facility. According to CBS News Miami, Florida's emergency management director, Kevin Guthrie, said this during a conference call with the detention center's vendors on Monday. An immigration and customs enforcement official told CBS News in a statement last week that detainees were transferred to other facilities due to concern.

about the hurricane season. Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labor Party. British Prime Minister, Keir Starrmer, announced Monday that he will resign.

Starrmer is the sixth British Prime Minister to leave office in just the last 10 years, and is expected to be replaced by Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester. Burnham's victory in a special parliamentary election last week, triggered Starmor's decision to resign, as labor lawmakers flock to the charismatic former mayor

and the hope that he can revive the party's fortunes. Burnham returned to Parliament on Monday, where he took the oath of office in the House of Commons. Have you ever known someone who seems to just go out of his way to make his own life worse? Well, President Trump has decided that what he needs right now are fewer allies. Case in point. Conservative Italian Prime Minister, Georgia Maloney, has been one of Trump's biggest backers in Europe. until last week, when video from the G7 showed Maloney and Trump having a vigorous conversation. After that video went viral, Trump did an interview with an Italian broadcaster during the G7 conference where the president claimed that Maloney had, quote, begged for a photo with him.

Maloney hit back hard, saying that not only was his untrue, but that she didn't understand why Trump was kinder to, quote, enemies of the West than he was to his allies. She added, quote, Italy and I do not beg. So, of course, Trump posted about Maloney nonstop over the weekend, completing that Italy didn't let the U.S. use its airstrips for the Iran war. No wonder, the right-wing Italian newspaper Libero's front page read Saturday, roughly translated,

Trump is an asshole. And that's the news. Let's talk about Iran. Vice President J.D. Van, made a big announcement on Monday. Iran is permitting United Nations inspectors to review their nuclear sites, which would be great news, except for two things. UN weapons inspectors were a part of former President Barack Obama's deal with Iran, the one that President Trump tore up in 2018. Oh, and Iran hasn't confirmed that this is happening. The so-called memorandum of understanding

that might might, and Trump's war in Iran has felt pretty disappointing. Here's my takeaway. A lot of the wins are things we were doing before Trump decided we shouldn't. And meanwhile, Iran just does whatever it wants, like closing the Strait of Hormuz, again. But here in the U.S., as we barrel toward the midterms, what often matters to voters is how this war will actually end, and what that means going forward. To find out how Americans are feeling, I spoke to Sarah Longwell, who knows voter sentiment better than most. She's the publisher of the bulwark, host of the Focus Group podcast, and author of How to Eat an Elephant, out on September 8th. Sarah, welcome to what today.

What's up, Jane? How's it going? You know, we're nearly four months into the Iran War, which was supposed to take, I believe, like three weeks, four weeks, two days. It's always two weeks, Jane. It's always two weeks. It's always two weeks. Still waiting on that health care plan. Anyway, gas prices are up, and people are obviously. not happy about that. We've been promised a peace deal many times over. Actually, I think going back months, how are the voters you've been talking to through the focus groups you run? How are they feeling

about the war? So it always depends which voters, because when you just say voters, I'm like, well, you know, Trump voters do usually feel one way, Democrats feel another way, although I will say the majority of voters are unhappy with this war. You can fight a lot of bipartisan, aggressive opposition to the war. Now, the way that they talk about it is very different. because Democrats are sort of like Trump is crazy, Trump broke his promises, you know, standard criticisms of Trump. Whereas Republican voters in the beginning were willing to give him time. They were willing to give him a bit of the benefit of the doubt. This is true of Trump voters in general, where when he starts on a new thing, let's say tariffs, you and I are going to look at

and say, this is going to be terrible for his voters. Even in those cases, they usually want to give him a little bit of room to maneuver because they think he's got a plan. There's some, you know, 40 chess in there. And what happens, and this is true of Iran and it's true of tariffs, as they have gone on, as gas prices have stayed elevated, as it has had personal consequences for them, they have begun to sour on the fact that he's clearly not getting out of this the way that he has with a lot of his other smash and grab jobs that they've seen him do over both of his administrations. And so because it's affecting them personally, they have much stronger feelings of negativity toward this war dragging on. We'll get back to my conversation with Sarah Longwell in a moment because our focus group said you were enjoying it.

But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five-star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. Why Today is brought to you by Nutraful. Good hair days do more than we give them credit for. When your hair feels healthy, you show up differently. You're more confident or relaxed, and you're not constantly checking mirrors or adjusting your hair.

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Our communities deserve better. To learn how you can get involved, update to 22422. Let's get back to my conversation with Sarah Longwell. Let's talk about Congress. We know most Democrats have opposed the war from the beginning, but how are Republicans feeling as the midterms approach? Because I can imagine that there would be, there are lots of Republicans who support the war,

but they have to know that the voters don't like this. And the midterms are not far away. Yeah, I mean, how to even begin to talk about Congress? because Congress has a constitutionally mandated role that it has no interest in playing. And voters are less upset about that, honestly, at least again, going back to the Trump voters tend to not be that worried about Congress. Democrats, of course, constantly are like, where is Congress? Why aren't they doing anything about this?

But for Republicans in Congress, yes, they know that voters are upset about the Iran war. They mostly know, though, that voters are upset about gas prices. And so I think that when it comes to the short-term desperation of Republicans for Trump to get something done, a lot of them have a really short-term view of this, just like the voters. They're like, just get the straight open. Just get the straight open. Forget about the fact that it was open to begin with, and we didn't have this problem, and now the Iranians have all this leverage.

A lot of the Republicans who are up in 2026 are approaching it like Trump is, which is a short-term. It's all about the midterms kind of vision versus, hey, now that we're going to be, we've started this war. We've got an obligation to other countries in the region. We've got an obligation to figure out what to do about the nuclear material they have. We've got to get a deal that, you know, goes into the future and is worthwhile. But Trump doesn't think that way. Trump thinks very sort of short term for himself. And that's how a lot of these Republicans in Congress are talking about it too. Yeah. And ending this war is not simple at all. And so you've got Republicans who have supported the war, like Senator Ted Cruz,

who are not happy with this new deal because they think it gives away too much to Iran. But does that even matter when you have Congress basically saying, just get us something, just give us something so we can lower gas prices and get that to the voters? And does Congress have any power over the deal to end the war in the first place? They could have power if they wanted to take it.

Again, the Constitution does give them power. The checks, they have Republicans, could join with Democrats. Like, they could do something. They've not had the political will to do anything or own a single decision when it comes to pushing back against Trump, except when it comes to releasing the Epstein Fowles when they got a whopping four Republicans to do something about it. Woo. Yeah. And also, like, the weirdest Republicans.

Yes. And it's like Bobert, Mace, Marjorie, Taylor Green. Like, these are not the heroes of the resistance. So, except and Thomas Massey, I guess. But they're weird Republicans. I actually think what's crazy about the Iran thing. is you know, and it's been a long time. This used to be a feature of my life, which was behind the scenes.

I would talk to a lot of Republicans back when I was still on good terms with a lot of people who were in there. Most of the people I was on terms with are long since gone and have been voted out of office. But what you know is that people talk a lot of stuff behind Trump's back. And you know, the Republicans are rip shit. I don't know if I'm allowed to swear on your podcast. You're allowed to swear. Absolutely.

Republicans are rip shit about this deal. Republicans in Congress who know this, the level of can kicking down the road, dangerous can kicking down the road. It's not even because people like Lindsay Graham or Ted Cruz have always wanted to do something about the Iranians. It's that they're looking at this saying, this was destabilizing. This is making us less safe. Somebody else is going to have to go deal with this if we walk away right now.

But of course, you know, Lindsay Graham, Trump said, well, I'm going to give him a spanking. Like Trump went and got him to pull him back on side because they, nobody's allowed to speak out. And so, you know, Trump still is able to do that for a lot of people. I mean, Thune, like, this is the most we've seen people get animated because it's so dangerous. But nowhere is the pushback in actual proportion to how dangerous it is and how angry they actually are about it. I think here's my question for you, based on the conversations you have with voters. Are voters responding to that? Like, are voters responding to Trump saying, actually, Iran's pretty cool.

You know, the new leadership is fine and they seem cool and nice and we're all going to hang out and it's all going to work out just fine. And I never cared about regime change. Like, do voters pick up on like, hey, wait, that's not how this started out at all? Not really. I wish I could tell you they do. I would say that when it comes to, and this is true of just about everything, whether it's a bill getting passed, getting out of a war, anything that is in process, they will wait to see how it ends. The machinations. The machinations, the, the machin, in the intervening period is often, you get your high, you know, your really high info voters who are following every twist and turn. Okay, those people are sick and they are not representative

of most of society. Like, I'm glued to my phone right now. I stand with those sickos. If those voters are watching right now, we're with you. America isn't, but we are. I mean, I am like, I want to know.

I'm looking at the body language of the people that are talking to J.D. Vance, I'm thinking about the political implications of whether they sent Rubio or Vance to do the negotiating, because the fact that Marco Rubio is nowhere to be seen in this is a huge indication to sickos like us and to anybody who sort of knows what's happening, but the average voter is not. The average voter cares about two things. One is how it is affecting them, which is primarily through gas prices. And that matters a great deal. And I'll just throw in one thing on this, which is, you know, for those of us who live in cities, maybe not L.A. Because it's a big driving city, but for a lot of cities where people don't drive super far just

for their daily lives, I don't know that they feel the same way about gas prices or if they respond to them the way that voters in more rural areas do, who often commute a half hour or more to get to a job. When I do focus groups, the number of people, not even in, in, in, you know, in, you know, in times of really elevated prices like they are right now. But just in general, people talk about the tradeoffs

of do I take this trip and spend this much money on gas versus do this other thing all the time. I just hear voters talk about gas prices. It is one of those things they do so regularly. That in grocery prices, because they're paying points that come up all the time.

And so that's one way that voters interact with it. And then the last one is like the eventual outcome. Where does it end up? And so, and they know that. Trump knows that. Trump knows that, and J.D. Vance know that people aren't watching every twist and turn. So they're just trying to get an outcome that they can sell to voters because voters will look up one day and say, okay, I can live or I can't live with this outcome.

Yeah, but if the U.S. and Iran reached the end of the 60-day ceasefire laid out in the memorandum of understanding without a final deal, do you think Trump will consider the midterms and whatever he decides to do next, where does that go from here and how will voters respond to that if there is no outcome at all? all. So that's a really good question. I think if there is no outcome, now we have to take this piece by piece. If there's no outcome, like meaning no deal, that means that the straight is either closed or told in some way. Although I love, we're sidestepping that with the language of fee now. Yes. I love fees. Everybody says we want more fees. It's just like you get an easy pass and you just go through the straight. It goes right to your account. Right out of your GDP. No big deal.

But you may have noticed over the weekend in the back and forth, if you are a sicko, that there was like, the Iranians are like, we're going to toll or fee you. And then Trump started bleeding, I'll toll you, right? And so, like, I don't know where this whole thing ends up, but if there is no deal, Trump is going to take flack from some parts of the right that cannot believe that we've let this dangerous dream. Plus, you do have what happens with Israel, right? Israel has a close relationship to a lot of American politicians on both sides of the aisle, but especially with Republicans. And so, like, their complaints will be loud and aggressive as well. And then if the straight is still closed, gas prices will still be high. And so Americans will be unhappy. And if you've been following, again, something I've never followed, but I'm following

closely now, the oil reserves are very depleted. And so there's not a lot of wiggle room if we can't get the straight open for having gas prices at a place that Americans will tolerate. And so for the midterms, is Trump thinking about that at all? Because that will matter. You know, if gas prices are high in August, October, like, that's going to matter. Does Trump care? So here is the extent to which Trump cares about the midterms. Trump does not what Democrats in charge because then he will live with oversight and he doesn't want oversight. And so he doesn't care about the Republican Party at all. Like he just doesn't care for him, you know, he cares about himself.

But because Republicans in Congress protect him from Democrats who will not just listen to him, who will actually do oversight, who will get in a. on the Epstein files. That is the reason why he obviously pushed for all the redistricting. He's trying to eke out seats wherever he can. And so I think one of the reasons that he's pretty desperate to get out of this is Trump does know how price sensitive. He talks about gas prices all the time. And he also talks about this war on Iran and the deal that Obama got, which is just a deep psychosis that Trump has, right? His legacy relative to Obama's is such a weird thing that turns in his brain. And so if people keep saying he got a way worse deal than Obama, and now he's dealing with Democrats in the House and potentially even the Senate, if gas prices are really high, like that's what he cares about.

Sarah, thank you so much for joining me. Hey, thanks for having me. That's great. That was my conversation with Sarah Longwell, publisher of the bulwark. Before we go, it's no secret that J.D. Vance is painfully awkward and embarrassing on camera. But what he's doing behind the scenes is unfortunately worse. In last week's episode of Runaway Country, Alex Wagner reported on the vice president's public messaging and his less public actions in the Trump administration's battle against blue states.

She interviews California Attorney General Rob Banta about federal efforts to meddle at the state level. Then she talks with Majority Report host Sam Sater to help put it all into context. Listen now in your Runaway Country podcast feed or on YouTube. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, celebrate another week of World Cup group stage action and tell your friends to listen.

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Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Ford, Erica Morrison, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdock and Jordan Cantor. We had helped today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. The What a Day podcast you know and love is shaking things up. You already know that five days a week, I, Jane Koston, bring you the need-to-know news and expert analysis on the big stories shaping today and tomorrow. Stories like how social media warps our

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