What Bitcoin Did - Bitcoin Power Law: The End of Exponential Growth | Matthew Mezinskis

Episode Date: November 10, 2025

Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of Crypto Voices and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, Matthew breaks down why Bitcoin doesn’t grow exponentially like traditional finance, it grows on a power curve. He explains why this difference matters for sustainability, how it challenges credit-based systems, and what it means for the long-term coexistence of Bitcoin and fiat money. We discuss how the power law reveals Bitcoin’s proportional and sustainable growth, why exponential systems like debt-driven markets inevitably face booms and busts, and how Bitcoin could eventually pull TradFi into a Bitcoin world rather than be absorbed by it. Matthew also explores Bitcoin’s growing dominance as base money, comparing its scale to global cash and reserves, and why its next major milestone is surpassing U.S. cash in circulation. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: IREN RIVER ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Matthew Mezinskis: https://x.com/1basemoney

It's very interesting. We've never seen it before, in fact, in Tradfai, that there's been an asset that grows the way that Bitcoin grows. It's possible that Bitcoin as a power curve could pull the entire TradFi exponential curve into power. And that is the mind-bending thing. Draw me a loan instrument that works in power growth. We're making interesting records. We're breaking interesting records almost every month with Bitcoin, right? It's not bigger than the US dollar yet, and that will be a fun one. I think it's possible that we could get into a Satoshi world where Bitcoin is still,

the growth of the network itself is this power curve, sustainable, proportionate growth, and everybody starts to accept it, even governments. Matthew, it is very good to see you, man. How are you doing? Danny, doing just great. Happy to be here. Been too long, actually. enjoyed seeing you in person in Riga for the Honey Badger. That was awesome. That was my first time in the Baltics. It was a cool city. I really liked it. Is it not? Huh? It's a great town. Yeah, it was a good

conference too, like real good Bitcoins. I love the conferences. Like they all have a different bit of a flavor, but that was some real like hardcore bitcoins, people working on some really cool stuff. I enjoyed it. It was a good trip. And they keep it. I mean, they keep it seriously, OG like it's been been that way, you know, every year since like 2017. And they keep wondering if they're going to do it again every year. But hopefully they do next year. I hope so. If they do it again, I'll definitely be going back. But you're doing good, even though Bitcoin is just over 100K. We've been crashing. What's your take on it? Yeah. I try to, you know, I've been doing streams now most every day. I'm pretty casual about it. Morning.

Baltic time, 11 a.m. Baltic time, 9 a.m. London time. So it's not exactly prime US time or Australian time. I guess it is more Australian time, prime time. It's not too bad for me. Yeah. You know, it's sort of been my goal always basically. You know, I think of Trace Mayer kind of had this view. It's like when he was promoting the mayor multiple way back in the day, everybody can catch a wick and you can talk about momentum and all these trades, you know, literally forever. But Bitcoin as a system, there's a story. You can talk about how it grows.

You can talk about, you know, how it's going to affect the TradFi system. And that stuff only, the story only gets better and better and better. So that's, you know, in a nutshell, what I try to do on my stream. And so a lot of that does ground itself in the power curve or the power law. I know a lot of people don't like the word power law. But, you know, I've been talking about that just as long as anybody, you know, Giovanni, the Italian, I think, most well known to the power law. He first posted about it as a power curve in time, something like September 2018.

And I think he did it on Reddit. And I posted it on Twitter, like my own. curve, my own analysis, independently. I mean, I didn't hear about Giovanni until like two years ago. I did it, I think, in December 2018. So this curve, and my analysis, by the way, was based on, for the hardcore listeners, there's an old series of pretty well-known posts now by a user Trow Low, low, low on Bitcoin talk. He started to do some regression analyses of the Bitcoin price. actually in logarithmic, which is a slightly different curve. We don't need to get into that. But it turned out over time, and you could really see this from about 2016 in Bitcoin,

that it was growing weirdly, not like, you know, gold or stocks or bonds or anything in Tradfai. It was growing at this power curve, which is actually more, it's something you observe more around network growth or growth of organisms. We can talk about it if you want. But basically, Yeah, I talk about it almost every day on my stream, is just trying to ground ourselves in the power trend, what it means, how we can take comfort in it. And, you know, not try to get too bogged down in the crazy trades because, you know, we can go into that if you want. But at the end of the day, yeah, the price could go down to 80K, could go down to 70K. But I'd rather just look at the levels, see where we are relative to the trend. And or relative to the past and then, you know, spend time with my family otherwise. So that's what I try to do. I do want to get into it, though, because I've always been, I think you know this, I've always been pretty skeptical of it.

And I think part of that was probably a gut reaction to the kind of cult that came around with the power law stuff. And we've seen models in Bitcoin time and time again. Like the classy example is the stock to flow stuff that Plan B did. And like when people have so much faith in one of these models to the point where even when it seems to break, they refuse to accept that it's broken. I was worried it was basically going to be another one of those. But I know you've talked about this a lot for a long time. So I want to know why you put so much faith in this.

So it would be good to get into like what a power law actually is before Bitcoin. Like what does it mean in terms of like organisms and networks? Right. So the bottom line is power curves or power relationships. they grow proportionately. So another word is they just grow sustainably. So there's a lot of evidence that the internet itself grew that way. And just to explain a power relationship, it's actually like the 80-20 rule.

So if you looked at it, if you think about it in terms of nodes, and Bitcoin are nodes just like AWS and Facebook versus all the other client-server relationships on the internet, there is usually a relationship where you have a few large nodes with many connections, and you have many small nodes with a few connections. So that's just the nature of how things grow. That's the nature of how things scale. And yeah, Lightning Network's a perfect example of that. Right, right. We can explain, and Lightning Network does the same thing, right? There's a few large nodes with many, many connections. The opposite is the case with the small nodes. So that relationship, we just observe across time.

We can observe it. In this case, the Y and the X axis is size versus amount. You can observe it many different ways. It's going to do some sort of a gradual curve, kind of like an 80-20 curve. But what's interesting with Bitcoin is we can actually observe the price to do this across time. And explaining that, again, I'll try to just keep it very, very brief, keep it very, very simple. without going too much into the numbers. But if you think about any,

and I can show you charts here in a second, but let's just talk about it with words for now. If you think about any chart, like anything you've seen on Twitter, anything you've seen on Trading View, when people put charts in log scale, and usually when they say log scale, they mean log linear.

That means the y-axis is log and the x-axis is just time, right? You draw a trend line, or as the TA people, you just draw all your sort of mad-hatter trends that connect wicks and candles and all this stuff. It's very easy to draw a straight line in log space, okay? Because, because the nature of TradFi is that it grows exponentially. It grows geometrically.

It grows in compounding fashion. All of those things are basically synonyms. Why? Well, my theory, my personal theory, I've never actually fully read this, but, you know, I've read a lot about the history of money and banking and stuff. but I think it probably mostly has to do with the nature of credit, of compound interest. So bank loans work the same. Your mortgages work the same.

Every thing, anytime you hear on CNBC or Bloomberg or whatever on Twitter, you hear a percent gain or a percent return, you're comparing it to a compound return that you expect to get every year to keep up with not only inflation. That's the common one. And that's true. But also to keep up with the pace of innovation, to keep up with the pace of population growth. It's not all bad, actually, that we grow, right? There are good things about growing. There's just a lot of nefarious things about inflation. So waiting through that is also difficult. But probably more to the nefarious side, more to the side that Bitcoiners can understand or like,

you know, I think empathize with. It is true that banking, and I'm not even talking the nature of fractional reserve banking and all the conspiracies and all this. It's just the nature of credit is that if you have a fixed rate over time, you're going to get to something that will constantly double at a certain amount of years based on the rate. The common example is a rule of 72, right? So rule of 72, if I have a 10% return, rule of 72, how long will it take to double every 7.2 years with a 10% return? You might think it's every 10 years, but that's, It's not how compounding works. That's not how exponential geometric growth works.

It's actually faster than you think because that's the nature of exponential growth. So rule of 72, basically you take the you take 72, take the percentage, whatever the growth rate is, slash away the percent sign and just say, so 72 divided by 10, what's that? 7.2 years. That's how long it will take to double. You do the inverse of that. Say you have a 7.2 percent compounding growth and it stays the same. It's going to take you 10 years.

to double. But the next 10 years, you will double again and double again and again and again. So all of those words that I just used to explain exponential growth, geometric growth, compound growth, compound interest, which is the nature of all bank loans, they constantly grow and it cannot be any other way. This is why, and again, people frame this often in a conspiratorial way, like if they don't grow the market, if they don't print, the market will crash, or if we don't grow enough, the market will crash. It's actually, I mean, it is true. It's true. But it's also, there's more of a deep, it's just a, there's this very interesting deep mathematical properties there that a lot of it has to do with credit and I think probably even most of it. But there are other things too.

You know, innovation, invention. Obviously, AI is the next one here. But the internet for sure, We've actually increased our growth now relative to times 30 years ago, 40 years ago, because of wonderful technological innovations. And so what happens is, and Jeffrey West talks about this in his book, Scale, I've quoted it a lot. Giovanni's talked about it a lot, too. I did the tour. When I saw you in Riga, my speaking tour over the summer was on this. It's basically it's even more crazy than exponential growth because we actually grow a little bit faster and a little bit faster and a little bit faster over these epochs.

And that even makes exponential growth even crazier. So in the short term, it's constant, but in the long term, it even gets a little bit faster. So that's what exponential growth does and is, and that's what TradFi is, that's what the stock market is, it's growing a little bit faster over, say, the midterm to the long term, and we have to keep up with it. And it's hard. You know, we get distracted and we have now we have our attention is going in a thousand different directions and all the other social implications of this. Maybe some people make it. Some people don't. Maybe older generations just, you know, this is like really cruel to say, but they just, you know, they just throw their hands up in the air and they

live in retirement peacefully and they don't they don't care but you know the pace of innovation the pace of our communication everything it's way faster and it's way arguably I think you know I know there's a lot of doom and glimmers in the bitcoin space I try to not be one but it's argued you'd rather live now than at any time in the past do you wish you could access cash without selling your bitcoin well let it makes that possible they're the global leader in bitcoin back lending and since 2018, they've issued over $9 billion in loans with a perfect record of protecting client assets. With Leiden, you get full-costly loans with no credit checks or monthly repayments, just easy access to dollars without selling a single SAT.

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inventions of 2024. Get 20% off at Bitkey.comworld when you use the code WBD. That's B-I-T-K-E-Y-D. This episode is brought to you by Anchor Watch. The thing that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error with my Bitcoin cold storage. And this is where Anchorage comes in. With Anchor Watch, your Bitcoin is insured with your own A-plus rated Lloyds of London insurance policy and all Bitcoin is held in their time-locked multi-sig vaults. So you have the peace of mind knowing your Bitcoin is insured while not giving up custody. So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, wrench attacks, natural disasters or just your own silly mistakes,

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Because why is Bitcoin not subject to the same things as tried finding that? Because things like money, supply, growth, credit creation, growth of population. Like, why is Bitcoin immune to that in its price performance? Yeah, well, immune is not a word I would use. And also that it has to be is not a word I would use. So, for example, the old stock to flow models, which by the way, we can talk about, I can show you some hilarious, you know, prior predictions and what they are now. Those are based in exponential space.

All right. So the stock to flow model, he was using exponential coefficients for a power model. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself. It doesn't have to be in the future that Bitcoin is for sure following a power law. It's just right now. And as we've observed for the last 16 years or so of Bitcoin, it has followed a power curve. So it doesn't really matter why it just is. Well, to get a little bit more to the why, the why is more sustainable.

It's more proportional. Those are two words that you would use with power. growth that you don't use with exponential growth. So exponential growth, all those things that I just talked about, we grow faster and faster, a lot of innovation. There's also a lot of inflation. There's booms. There's busts. It's volatile. It's maybe a little bit unsustainable. You could use the word, right? You think about all the debt that we have. Those things are all features of exponential growth. You can get to fast booms, but also fast busts, like the Great Depression or the global financial crisis. That's just the Tradfai world. There's no there's no explaining your way out of that paper

bag. That's just that's the that's the world. That's the universe that we're in. That's what that's what it does. Bitcoin, it's provably observable with the statistics that it is not following an exponential curve. And I can show you a chart that exactly illustrates this, but it's just not following an exponential curve. Price is not exponential. So then you would say why. Well, as I talked about with the nodes, with the 80-20 rule, with scaling, with networks. It's just a feature of scaling. It's a feature of networks that you do have. Not everybody running the full, you know, the full node to use the old scaling or example.

You know, you don't, you just have more top heavy nodes on the, on the, on the, on the, on the, on the, on the, on the, on the other side, not as busy of traffic and that's how the network scales. And it's actually more sustainable that way. But of course, it's true. If you rely too much on those consolidated concentrated, knows, you might lose some things, you might lose some security. You got to be careful about that. And that's why there's people way smarter than me having a lot of these arguments right now about how Bitcoin can truly scale, how it might, things that I don't actually completely see as relevant now. I don't think we need to get into, but how there might even be legal implications of what's on the blockchain right now, right?

I don't quite see that at the moment, but I know a lot of people are talking about that, at least on Twitter. But anyway, all of this stuff is just, that's how networks grow, but it's growing not in a constant exponential fashion where you can pick a number and say, okay, Bitcoin is growing at 10% a year.

If it's growing a 10% per year, the network's going to double in 7.2 years. And then 7.2 years from then, it's going to double again. That's not what it's doing. It's growing according to a power curve over time. And so what that means is actually the growth rate shrinks. The growth rate shrinks. So back in the day, let's just use price as an example.

It's pretty obvious if you bought Bitcoin for a dollar or whatever. Back in 2011 or 10, you were mining it maybe before there was even a price. Your compound growth was huge, even holding two today. your compound growth is hundreds of a percent. But as time goes on, and as Bitcoin gets a little bit top-heavy, it gets a little bit bigger, a little bit heavier, the growth is proportionately less. So, or actually, it's proportionately the same. It just takes longer. That's a better way to say it. So, but if you look at it on a yearly basis, a yearly basis, that annual growth will fall. So for example, back in 2010, 2011, anybody could have had thousands of a percent return.

Now, on a curve, on a curve, Bitcoin by the end of this year, we'll do 42 percent per year. And next year, it's going to be 38 in some chains. Actually, don't know off the top of my head from that. I'll just tell you, Rick. It's on my website, by the way. So basemone. com, world or porcropolis.io, you can find all this information. Let me find you the exact.

It's 30. It's scheduled to be 39.2% by the end of 2026. So 42% by the end of the year, 39.2% by 2026 and 36.7% by 2027. And you can see this table where it shows you exactly the slope of the curve and how the curve declines in growth rate on my website, if you want to dig into those statistics. But that's a power relationship. It's actually, it's sustainable. It's proportional, but it grows slower and slower as it gets bigger.

So when you see people, like, I'm not trying to call Saylor out here at all, but like Saylor will often in presentations present like the character of Bitcoin as 38% or whatever ongoing. Do you think he's missing part of the point there? I do, yeah. And there's a fellow MIT grad from Saylor that everybody should follow. His handle is money or debt, money or debt. Stephen Perronaut is his name. I haven't interviewed him yet, but we've been on like some streams together.

He's a great, he's a great mind of Bitcoin. And he's long said as an MIT grad, Sailor should get on the, you know, the power law train, the power curve train, because it's just not true. And people have actually, it is one of the ironic kind of funny things about Sailor, like he said for years, all your models will be destroyed. And then he made a model. Like a few years ago, he came out with a bull case, bare case, normal case.

That was a model. yet all of our models are going to be destroyed. So again, we make models all the time. The people before the GFC made insane, you know, linear and exponential models according to rental rates that were just insane. They wouldn't work. They're unsustainable. So we can do that.

But it's funny, in his model, he did this sort of like, it was like a McKinsey person sort of got it. It's like they do make, uh, it almost mimics a power curve. Like it declines, but it's like in this jagged stair step kind of weird way. He's using exponential growth, but decreasing it in a weird way to try to match a power curve. And I've never heard him come out and say for sure or say that it clearly seems like this is, you know, matching a power growth. But one more thing about this, which is highly interesting. And I don't know how much time we have to go in this episode.

But this is going to have implications for the way that Bitcoin interacts with the TradFi system. And the jury is way still out on this fact. Okay, so you want me to share a chart? I've got too many questions for you. Can we hold off on that just for one second? Because I want to know the answer to or your answer to that. But just quickly before, we never got onto the organism piece. And I'm interested to know how this works in like the natural world.

Yeah. So you can look at just as a very, very simple example. You look at like a chart of mammals, like from, you know, a mouse to an elephant to a whale. the calories that they need will scale proportionally. Okay, so it's not that though a whale is whatever X times bigger than a mouse, that a whale or an elephant, for example, it's easier than a whale, that an elephant will also need X times amount of calories. It's actually proportionally less as the animal gets proportionally bigger.

and again, just trying to short-circuit a lot of the math or everything, the word that you need to understand there is sustainable. It's a sustainable growth rate. It's not all the way through, you know, sort of this exponential curve, which is just there's a, I think Jeffrey West actually does this in his book as well. There's the example of Godzilla. Like anyone who knows basic stats would understand and basic physics, that someone like something like Godzilla is is mathematically impossible.

It would literally, if there was an organism that big, first of all, it would need like a mountain of food to keep it up. And its weight would just collapse it on itself. So it has to do with physics, has to do with gravity, has to do with nourishment. It just doesn't work that way. It's just nature. It just doesn't work that way on the planet that we live in. So again, the words.

if there's two words that I can give to the listeners and to you about the power curve, about the power law, and I like to say power curve because for some reason, law triggers people, even though that's the technical term. The two words are proportionate and sustainable. That is the growth that is exhibited in a power relationship, whether it's organisms, networks, or Bitcoin. And that's a good thing, not a bad thing. It's a very good thing. So if you could calculate, like the calories that are, mouse needs and the calories that an elephant needs. And then you found out the mass of like a tiger.

Could you, with the power curve, could you calculate the calories that a tiger needs based just on the math in the power curve? Yeah. It would just be a straight line. It would be a straight line through on log log. So not log linear, but you would have like calories and mass and you put them in log, log space. You line up the different sizes of the animals and you'd have a straight line cut right through

it. So that would be a power relationship. So another tell, by the way, we didn't talk about this, that a relationship is a power curve is when you put it in log, log, that is the y-axis and the x-axis in log-log space, it's a straight line. Unlike all the first part of the show, which we talked about exponential geometric compound growth, which is the entire trad-fi world, GDP, you know, bonds. gold, S&P, all of that is a straight line. The trend line is a straight line on log linear. So that's

the difference. That's the difference between the two. And so it's very fascinating. It's very interesting. We've never seen it before, in fact, in Tradfai, that there's been an asset that grows the way that Bitcoin grows. Okay. Just lastly, before we get onto the actual chart, I want to know your take on what this means for how Bitcoin is going to interact with the traditional financial world. I'd rather show you some charts as I talk about that. But I absolutely say that the jury, the jury is still out there because Tradfai is huge. The dollar itself is still huge, even though everybody's, the bond vigilantes have been out for decades if you've been reading any gold newsletter. And yeah, interest rates are going up.

Maybe the dollar is going to get, you know, for some rough years. but so is the Russian Rubble. So it's just, it's not, it's not clear how necessarily, you know, what I would prefer, of course, is the Bitcoin vision and everything. But basically, the way I would sum it up and we'll get to some charts is, I think one of two things is going to happen. And explaining that is going to be easier with the chart. But it's either Bitcoin as a power law asset gets pulled into an exponential asset,

which actually is fine for Bitcoiners because the price is. is even going to grow faster. All right. As I remember, I told you, power growth slows over time, exponential stays constant. So it's actually, but again, that's not the world that I would imagine a lot of the purists would like, including myself. So if Bitcoin just turns into an exponential asset, then it's just like everything else. It's like gold.

Another possibility, though, is if people start to understand the nature of Bitcoin, the nature of scarce Satoshi is that these can't be printed, that fiat interests might not make as much sense on these scarce Satoshes, which become more scarce and more scarce every year, then it's possible that Bitcoin as a power curve could pull the entire Tradfi exponential curve into power. And that is the mind-bending thing that would be perhaps the philosophical thing with what hyper-bitquinization actually looks like. Are we on a Satoshi standard? the big X factor here, and I've said this a lot on my streams, big X factor to me, and it goes back to what I said at the beginning,

is the nature of credit. Because you cannot, you cannot, it's mathematically impossible. You know, I posit this to any mathematician listening to this. Draw me a lone instrument that works in power growth. It does not work in power growth. It's just not the nature of a credit instrument. Credit instruments work in exponential growth. They work in geometric growth, compounding growth, just like the rest of the Tradfi system.

So why is that? Is that because interest would have to drop constantly? Correct. So don't think of an annuity because that's kind of a little bit more complicated, but it's still, it's still the same idea. But it's just think about something that, just think about the same example I said before. The 10% growth rate from interest. okay, in your native Fiat unit, if you're going to get 10% every year, every year, every year, you're just going to double every 10 years. Bitcoin doesn't do that. The growth rate of Bitcoin,

which is a power growth rate, declines over time. So I've thought about this a lot. I've thought about modeling it and showing on my stream. I haven't even done it yet, but maybe something like simple interest over the short term could work a little bit. And by the way, this is going to have huge implications for tradfai and for stuff that sailors doing, for example, because of all his instruments pay a fixed 10%, but Bitcoin is not fixed at a 38% growth. This is a challenge for him. Again, I'm not, he's doing wonderful things. I just saw a tweet, maybe from Stephen as well, that showed that the last purchases that they just made over the course of a day were more than miners would make with their latest. I don't think it was the euro interest or the euro instrument,

was actually, but which they just released. Anyway, it's, it's amazing the amount of coins that he's accumulating, but he's also accumulating a lot of debt in fiat units that are fixed, fixed, fixed, fixed, fixed, constant. And the nature of Bitcoin is it does not grow in a fixed rate. It just does not. I've seen TA Trading View folks try to do these straight lines with Bitcoin on a log scale. I imagine every listener knows that that doesn't work. You just know that. when you put that Bitcoin price over the entire life of Bitcoin on log scale, log linear, you get that gentle curve. That's what a power curve looks like on log linear.

If you do it log log, you'll get a straight line, but that's a different thing. So that makes sense. It does make sense. So this might be really naive to think that I could even sort of suggest an answer. But would the answer not be just a price interest in SATs? If you price interest in Sats, you can absolutely do that. Then we're in a Satoshi world. But the nature of the Satoshi's themselves does not, as everybody knows, they do not increase exponentially.

They don't. In fact, they decline exponentially, which is weird. Of course. So does it then a ceiling on how much credit can actually be issued? I mean, theoretically in sets. unless you want to allow. And by the way, this can totally happen. You can allow certificates in Satoshis,

and everybody knows that there's just not enough Satoshes to actually back and those things. So it's open. In my mind, it's open. But for sure, 100%, it would be basically foolish to have, well, before I say, the foolish part. For sure, everybody knows that in the Tradfai system, there's more and more currency units issued every year. Yeah, on the margin you might actually have they destroy the money supply a little bit, and we can show you curves of that as well. But most of the time, the money supply increases at 7, 10, 12% per year. And that's a fixed number. So again, the money supply is doubling every 7.

In my monetary base exhibits show that the money supply doubles even a little bit less than six years globally worldwide. So in native unit terms. So that's how fiat works. Everybody knows that they increase. And then everybody knows looking at Bitcoin, that's not how Bitcoin works. In fact, Bitcoin declines, the rate of Satoshi's declines exponentially at something like 16% a year. So every four years, it's 16% per year, but then it halves. So I mean, a 16% a year reference. represents the having, 16% declining Satoshi's. So that's just complete, everybody knows that that's a completely different model than what Fiat does.

So yeah, that's, that's how it looks. All right. We should get into the chart. And as you're going through this, one of the questions I want to know your answer to is, if you had to put like a probability on it, do you think Bitcoin does pull tradfai into Bitcoin or do you think it works the other way around? Yeah. So first, I do think that that's a good way to phrase it. And I haven't heard anybody else in the power crew phrase that like this. I've been wanting to talk to Stephen and Giovanni and some of these guys. Seena's another very good,

he's a Harvard guy that's into the power curve. So if I had to put a probability on it, that's a good question, actually. I'd say right now, right now the probability is that Bitcoin gets pulled into the TradFai world. That's just the world that we live in. That's the nature of coercion. It's the nature of fiat money laws. But I also think the future is unpredictable. Gosh, I can totally see, I can totally see a world where.

You know, accumulating Satoshi's for even a government is so important that people understand that, you know, you can't just keep printing this money. It's worthless. The bonds become less, let's not even say worthless, but let's just say less valuable over time relative to Bitcoin. And so I think it's possible that we could get into a Satoshi world where Bitcoin is still, the growth of the network itself is this power curve, sustainable proportionate growth, and everybody starts to accept it, even governments. I absolutely think that is possible. It's the here to there, right? That's the most difficult thing for me to grasp. And I would say anybody's lying if they would tell you otherwise. I mean, I've heard

Saylor speaking conferences. I mean, he's even offhand say like, you know, yeah, I would like all the bureaucrats in Washington to see it my way. You know, many of them don't at the moment. And they have, he hasn't said it. I'm now putting words into his mouth, but they have the power basically to court. I mean, you know, who's to say that the United States might not say a couple years from now, your, your Bitcoin stash is in the national security interest of the United States. We're just going to take that property. That's not a good thing. That's definitely not a good thing. Not for property rights, not for anything. And that's going to, that's going to give more authority. not in a good way of that term,

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And it's really important. Yeah, it's a really big deal. So that's how I actually frame it. And I haven't heard anybody else frame it this way. But in my view, it's either Tradfai pulls Bitcoin exponential. You might see some big Bitcoin numbers there, but that's not that exciting. That's like digital gold in the worst way. or Bitcoin pulls Tradfai power and we're growing on a sustainable open network that everybody agrees on

and even the people that own the guns in more some way are going to understand that they can't buy more guns with printed money. That's how I'd say it. It's, I've said this about 50 times on the show at this point, but something Thomas Pachea from Pabke said to me is like, we're all going to be rich and depressed because the project failed. and that seems like the traditional finance world pulling Bitcoin into it. That's the outcome. I saw that episode with Thomas actually, or one of those. I would agree with that sentiment.

I would say that sentiment, what he just said is my, that's another way of saying TradFi pulls Bitcoin exponential. You might like that number. You may like seeing Bitcoin increase at 20% a year every year on a trend, but that's not what we don't get the promise of, the full promise of Bitcoin. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right, let's do the chart. I want to see it.

All right. So here's my website again. This is the only chart I have up at the moment. I've read on my website many times, but this is the old power curve. This is log linear. This is just the price of Bitcoin. You can see it on my chart. This is monthly frequency because it's a lot of data. We'll do more detail in a second. Now here's log log. Okay, so key thing to understand, and I'll say this one more time is power curves are straight lines. How you know it's a power curve is a straight line on a log, log curve. So here, if it was a straight line on log linear, that would be an exponential, but it's not. It's clearly curved.

But it's a straight line on log log. That's a power curve. The next thing to understand is, again, you see dates here. You see like 2010 and then, you know, further away 2012. But as we get closer, and this one actually is not short as well, but the date is, dates become compressed, basically, like, 2023 March is very close to, you know, 2024 March, whereas here it's like way farther away at the beginning of the axis. So, again, that's the effect of the nature of putting it in an log. But it's important to understand that it's not the dates

here that go into the formula, the power curve formula. It is days. It is days since the Genesis block. And so another way of saying this, and I don't think I actually said this part yet, you can't really derive this from the formula. You have to back into this, but I like thinking about doubling time. So power curves do not have a fixed doubling time like exponential, but we can still translate this into something like doubling. What does it mean? And the number is 13%.

So that's that proportional growth. So you have it here on this chart. It's 13%, 12.7, 12.8%. So what it means is for every increase of 12.8 to 13%, in the life of Bitcoin, the price doubles or the adoption doubles. That's the definition of the power curve as I describe it, as I found it. Other people that they run numbers, they're going to get very, very similar numbers. So let's describe that now. When Bitcoin was 60 days old, 60 days old, roughly, roughly, and of course we didn't have a price at the time, but roughly what

was happening is the adoption was doubling every seven days, every seven days. For every 60 days, 60 days, then seven more days, the adoption of the price doubles. When it was 600 days old, the price doubled every 70 days or so. And now we're a little over 6,000 days, and Bitcoin is doubling every 700 days, aka every two years. So that is, again, another way to describe power growth, totally different, totally different than exponential growth. Exponential growth, you get that fixed number. You tell me 10% growth, double every 7.2. You double every 7.2. years, double every 7.2 years, double every 7.2 years. That's how Tradfai works. That's how credit works. That's how banks work. It's not how Bitcoin works. So, did you have anything there? Yeah, I was just

going to say, so based off this, what is the kind of fair price right now? Yeah. So here's the, here's a curve I show every day on my stream. This is, this is the price. We got this out long into the future for fun. And I have here the 10th to the 90th percent. percentile. And I do things, you know, maybe people have seen the quantile regression model that Plan C or CNA have done. There you'll get a nice smooth curve in the back because you're finding different percentiles to meet everything. I like to keep it simple. People like one number. So I like to look at multiples over or under the trend at the time. And to keep the multiples fixed, you get a little wavy action here, but you can still do it smooth in the future. So bottom line

is, where are we right now? Let's just go right now. Right now, as you can see, We're under trend, all right? Not much, but we are under. And a few things to say. So price, when I pulled it into the model this morning, actually, we should have the seventh here. No, I don't know why. I didn't pull in. But anyway, yesterday's price, 101.

Basically the same price. Yeah, basically the same price. 101, okay? So the regression itself, the power curve, is 119, my curve. Some people are going to have a little bit different. numbers. Other people are going to have different numbers. But notice that the curve itself, if we look at these percentiles, it's somewhere between the 50th, sorry, the price, the price is between the 50th and the 60th percentile. So you see 91, 898, and 113-7777 is the 60th percentile.

The curve itself is between the 60th and the 70th percentile. And it's about, so that we can actually say that the power curve, interestingly, in Bitcoin's case, is about a two-thirds sort of observation. So two-thirds of the time, price is actually relative to the trend below it, one-third of the time above it. And it's always exciting when it's above it, because first of all, that's a minority of the time. But it's also every day that it's above it, you know, unlike a rigid stock-to-flow model, which again, we can talk about that. This just adapts over time. So it's going to, Every time we're above this curve, we pull it up a little bit. And every time we're below, that black line, we pull it down a little bit.

That's just the nature of how it goes. That's the model. That's trying to model what Bitcoin does. So we are a little bit below it. That's not as fun. But we're not much below it. We're in about the 55th percentile. And by the way, 50th percentile means the median.

So 50 percent of the time, that's the median. So that's where we are, Danny. That's where we are. We're about the 55th percentile. Again, I just said checkmate on. the show yesterday, he's very good with the on-chain data looking if, is this just a dip? Not, you know, he was even leaning into the idea without fully saying it, that this kind of looks like a dip. But, you know, I'm the same way as him. I make disclaimers all the time.

Like, I do not, I do not day trade. I'm not here to, I'm just here to try to resolve the Maylocks moments a little bit. Like, bottom line, we're on trend. We're above the median. We're a little bit below the OLS, which is the power law, basically the ordinary least squares, the regression line, which is almost like saying the mean, slightly different, but basically it's like the mean. It's the best fitting trend that the price has done in the last 16 years.

We're slightly below it. Now, we look at these numbers. Let's see how far we could dip. Just before we do that, can I just throw a couple of questions at you? Can you just zoom right out so we can see the entire history of Bitcoin on this? this. Yep. So when I look at this, obviously like 2013, 2013, 2017, 2011, there's these big peaks like way above that median line. And then if you go to sort of the last few years, we're staying much closer. Is this just like Bitcoin maturing? And will it remain closer to that

line as the sort of life cycle of Bitcoin increases? Yeah. So it seems to me that I'm about the last person standing that still says, I'm not saying that the cycles are not over, but I just, I find it curious or interesting that I've seen so many, you know, long-term Bitcoiners saying the cycles are over, the cycles are over, tradfice here, Bitcoin IPO moment, which I actually like that analogy a lot. I thought that was a great piece. It's a great, it's a great analogy. I agree. I agree. I agree. And yet, and yet, we still have these statistics.

I would say, you know, let's talk in six months. All right, maybe it's a little bit longer, maybe a little shorter. But if in six months, this, you know, nice little green shaded area of the price growing in power terms is still between roughly, I don't know, the four and the eight here. That is the 40th percentile and the 80th percentile. Then I would say cycles are over, or at least definitely the four year cycle is over. But it's funny. I think I'm like, I'm not on Twitter so much, to be honest, but I might not be, but I've been saying every day on my stream,

I'm not going to call it that it's that it's over until it's over. And, you know, I know some people have done the math, like from, from trough to peak, we've now passed the average days, you know, of all the prior cycles together. I get all that. I get it. But like you said, every time there's been a pump, And it's true that this double pump in 2021 was kind of weird.

But every time on this chart, we've been above the 90th percentile, which is fun. That's fun times. It's certainly Maylock's moments for a lot of people, but we've had it. So I have not, I'm not saying, I know for sure. This does not tell you timing. It just tells you relative risk. So I'm not saying that cycles are over, the four-year cycles are over, but I'm also not saying that they're not over.

The hard thing with this, though, is that like, what makes a cycle? Like, what does it have to do to classify as, like, a typical four-year cycle? Because, again, on this chart, like, it's barely been above the trend line this time. And so, like, if we do go into a bear market, you would imagine that it's not going to be as volatile to the downside. And does that mean the cycle's over, or is that still the cycle continuing? Like, this is where I think it gets tricky. Yeah. No, yes and yes.

I mean, again, I wouldn't be too complicated with it. I think you're right. Yes and yes. If we don't have a huge boom, probably not a huge bust. Although again, never say never, no one knows. But here you can clearly see this was the start of the ETF run, right? So the ETFs were approved January, February, 2024. And you can clearly see, and James had verified this with a lot of the old coins.

They really came to life here and then for sure here. All right, when we got over 100K and the Trump, the Trump pump. And then you have, you know, Liberation Day dump. and we're back up again, but now there's a lot of softness. So I totally understand and I would empathize with the idea that the cycles are over. It's totally possible. I'm just saying every time, every time we've been this 18, 20 months after the having, eventually grandma gives a lot of money to her grandkids to buy Bitcoin.

I know it's a narrative. I know it's, you know, I'm not looking at any trendline analysis. I'm just saying this is the, or not, I am looking at trendline analysis. I'm not looking at TA analysis. I'm not looking at whatever they call, the impulses and the ABC correction, all those Elliott Wave stuff, which I've heard some of these gold bugs for years on these newsletters, like this Robert Prechtier guy, this Deflationist, this Elliott Wave deflationist guy. It was never right.

So I never put much stock into that stuff. But bottom line, sorry, get all these tangents. I think it's possible. I think it's possible that we could have a nice boom here at the end of the year. Here's another thing, which is fun. Fernando, my old co-hosts and I, about five years ago, we interviewed, I was just thinking about this this morning. Now I'm blanking.

It's not Jim Rogers, but who's the other guy, guy that lives in Asia? Mark Faber. It was Mark Faber. We interviewed him, you know, the famous Asian bull, Western Bear. and he was so angry. I mean, like, as a lot of those guys, like, so angry, like, where is our gold run? You know, and of course, he says crypto. He doesn't say Bitcoin.

He's like, all this money's going into crypto. It's not going into gold. That's a very famous sort of sentiment of gold bugs in the last 10 years. I think they're having their time to shine now. And I want to show you the same chart in gold ounces. This is even more fun. The funny thing about that is I feel like Bitcoiners are doing that now, complaining all the money's going into gold and all the money's going into

to like AI stocks. Precisely. And they're right, actually. I think it's true. So there's real rotations here. You know, old bitcoins, giving those coins away to Ibit and to new Wall Street investors. And old bitcoinsers probably moving into gold or to AI.

Or just gold finally catching up from, you know, regular Trad 5, people thinking, okay, Bitcoin's done or whatever, this softness. It's not, maybe the four-year cycle is not happy. So all those narratives are actually, to some extent, true. But here's what's very interesting. If we look at the power curve in terms of gold ounces, price and Bitcoin price and gold ounces, it's very similar. So 95% are squared. That means 95% of the time the price moves around this line, better than just a straight line average, which is obvious. That's the scientific definition of it. And we can see here that we are super cheap as far as Bitcoin. priceed in gold. So unlike here in the dollar chart where we're just below trend and we have been hovering around trend basically for the last two years, we haven't hit the trend line since 2022, right? And it makes sense, right, at $4,000, $4,000 plus gold. And the actual price as of, let's call it the sixth, 25.39 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. The trend is 63. So almost a thing. So almost a third, almost a third. I'm looking at this and I'm seeing from a gold bugs perspective,

Bitcoin is on the trend some of the cheapest that it's ever been. We are at, look at the percentiles now. 26, let me get back to the number, 25.39 ounces is under the 20th percentile, which is 0.4x the trend and above the 10th percentile, which is 0.3x, the trend, which is 22 ounces. So, in other words, extremely cheap. And yet, and yet for as soft as you might think Bitcoin is relative to gold, let's go back to 2022 to the puking, the SBF, you know, Tara, Luna, all the disaster of, you know, the weak hands in 2022. How many ounces of gold do you see there? The actual prices. 9.7? Yeah. So we are still, you know, nearly three times. the value of gold from 2022,

that to me shows enormous power curve growth for Bitcoin. Like the growth is still very strong, very fast, even though right now it's very weak relative to the trend. In other words, I really wonder how much longer the gold bugs, which are very similar. There's a lot of overlap, obviously, in these markets. Totally. I wonder how much longer they're going to hold their gold

and see Bitcoin get to these cheap levels. So you think there's going to be a big rotation from gold to Bitcoin? I do. I personally do because, again, it's just statistics. It is possible to say that gold really has been, you know, I'm not using this as a real market manipulation term, but let's say suppressed over the last 15 years. It's just, you know, been out of favor. People are finally getting it.

China's buying. A few things that don't jive with that in my view. First of all, government buying, which is the biggest buyers of gold. government gold holdings is at the same very light 1.2% trend since 2008. If you do a trend line, I have this chart, I can pull it up. If you do a trend line on all the gold, official gold ounces the governments have, it's not that much. I mean, it's, it's increasing.

It has been increasing since the GFC in 2008, one to two percent per year. That's the same. So where is this appetite coming? Where is this increase in the price coming? what also happens with the gold market and actually with any market but not Bitcoin, which is great for Bitcoin, is we have the supply and demand functions. You know, with Bitcoin, the supply is is rigorous to the protocol because of the difficulty adjustment.

The balance sheet budgets every 10. The balance sheet balance, the budget balances. That's what I should say. The budget balances every 10 minutes with Bitcoin. With gold, there's a lot. there's a lot of dislocation always and it's always overshooting or undershooting. For example, a high gold price is going to bring in a lot of jokers to the gold industry, a lot of people that didn't care about it forever, but now care about it. Old mining projects that were completely

unprofitable at $1,000 an ounce look pretty good at $4,000 an ounce. And that can work for a time, but there is still this mean reversion, which I don't, see gold being immune from. Bitcoin is immune from that. We have number of technology for Bitcoin, but gold is not immune to that. And by the way, here's the number. Again, I have all the charts, but it's almost better to just talk about it. I think one of the really interesting things that's happening in gold this year is that like Bitcoin, this, if you want to call it a cycle cycle, has not really attracted that much retail interest. But gold has had the retail firm. I'm sure you saw the pictures. I think it was actually in Australia. There was like a huge,

huge queue out onto the street, like a gold bullion place to, like people literally queuing up in the street to go and buy gold. Yeah, Bitcoin has seemingly flown under the radar. Nice. I did not see that. Makes perfect sense. And, and yeah, let me just show you, you like this. Just while you're pulling that chart up, one of the things that this has made me think,

getting back to the cycles thing, is I think your sort of power law take on this actually plays into a lot of the cycle. people's play, which is that like a lot of people have said maybe cycles aren't over, maybe they're elongating. An elongating is basically just saying power law. Yeah. Yeah. Well, the power law, again, it doesn't, it actually doesn't predict the time.

It just predicts or it just tells you the risk. So right now, theoretically, in dollar terms, we're at fair value. In gold, we're cheap. If you have gold, Bitcoin's looking pretty cheap. And again, I just want to harp on that point. it would be just statistically an anomaly if Bitcoin goes back to say 10 ounces of gold like it was in 2020, right? I mean, that's just that's, that's a, that's completely different. And it's not, that's not what the markets project, let's say, for the long term.

And so here's the example of projecting for the long term. So here's gold over 55 years. Now, a lot of people, when they do trends of gold, just so you know, and I'm sure you've seen this. They pull like $35 an ounce in August 1971 and it was actually 42. That's a statutory rate at the time. That's what the U.S. still values their gold at is $42 an ounce. So they take this and then they take the price today. And they get a number that's pretty gangbusters right now. It's not, it's still not over 10%. I don't actually know the latest. It might be closer to nine or something right now. If you do the compound

growth, that exponential growth. But that's cheating a little bit because you're ignoring the peaks, the troughs. What you got to do with all this stuff, and this is one of the things that really hard bought on my channel is it's not about, you know, picking peaks and troughs and everything. It's take the trend. Take the trend. And okay, so here's a very beautiful, perfect, exponential trend line slicing through the gold market on log scale. This is what we talked about at the top of the show. This is all tradfifi works like this. So what's the slope of that trend? 5.3% Kager. It's actually not that much to ride home about. Now, it might be better. It might in the future. but let's look where we are now relative to literally the max that we've ever seen.

We're not there yet and we could get there. I absolutely think we could get there. But we didn't get there in 2011. And it's possible that we could do something like this. Like this was so early in the data that, you know, getting. So what I'm, to be clear, what you're seeing here, this line didn't exist at the time. So what you're seeing is sort of the evolution of how the trend would grow. But it was always this red line.

is 2.54x the trend at the time. So it's possible that right now we could just blow through this and to keep us at our 2.54X the trend, which is 100, you know, that's basically the max observation. We could do that here. We could pull even higher. I could totally see a world where it goes. I think that what was the price there about $5,000?

Yeah, 5,000 is that number. So 5,000 where it gets to $5,000. Yep. But let me show you now, And I have a chart like this for AI as well, or basically the top tech stocks, tech stocks in the US. Let's just look at this period,

which is from, actually not even this period, just from this period from 2022. Like the, it's the best R-square, the fastest trend line I can show you for gold, the most favorable, the Peter Shift curve,

basically. And it's right here. Okay, you started here, actually, in December, no, October, where did I start it? October, 2023 at that dip, and then grow.

It's a curve that Peter Schiff has been waiting his whole life for. It would be amazing, all the rest. Let's see how long it would take to get through the all-time trend, top-level observation ever. It would be $5,351 an ounce. That would be the number. So totally possible we can get there, right? I'm absolutely saying it's possible.

What is highly improbable, and we can show this with the market cap, of gold, it would be like the size of the U.S. debt by like 2038 or something. What's highly improbable is that we go, again, compound growth, 41, I didn't even say, what's the curve? What's the slope of that curve? 41.3% Kager. That's what Bitcoin does right now. Yeah, that's what Bitcoin does right now. And Bitcoin's slowing. So for that just to keep up, you're at $100,000 gold by 2035. Peter Schiff, and Bitcoin's tiny compatible. Like, that makes no sense.

Precisely. It makes no sense. It's, you know, that's, it just doesn't make any sense. And you have to think about the supply and demand dynamics that I said. The, they say in the, in the commodity industry, right? It's like the cure for high prices is high prices. The cure for low prices is low prices. So, but it's, it's depending on your perspective.

So if you're a consumer, the cure for high prices is high prices. Because if you just want to buy gold or you want to buy jewelry or whatever, you know, If prices stay so elevated relative to the cost of mining, you're just going to get more entrance into the market, more competition, price will come down. Conversely, if prices are so low relative to mining, then you're going to get more producers coming in and figuring out, or sorry, you're getting more consumers coming in and buying until the price rises. So that's the, that's that dichotomy, right?

The cure for high prices is high prices in the case of gold. So like it's a long winded way of saying I don't see this lasting, let's say more than, I don't know, two years, three years. It totally could blow through the old record, which would be $5,300 an ounce, maybe it goes to $10,000, maybe it goes to $15,000 on this trend. It would only take till 2029. At some point, the numbers are so wacky compared to all the other base level things

like government balance sheets. It just, it wouldn't, it wouldn't hold in my view. Even if it makes it to 2029, it's not going to make it's 2039 on that curve. Right, precisely. So it's going to go back to this. It's going to revert to the mean at some point. So have you ever done a log log power law on gold? No, it wouldn't fit.

Actually, no, I have. Let's see if I can pull it up for you. Just to show you how it does not fit. So here's a power curve on gold. Now, log log is sort of bad on my software here. I can do it at my break. Yeah. So here's log log.

All right. Don't watch these dates here. It's annoying. The tooltip will be correct. But basically, you're spread out way here back in the 70s. There's a lot of distance between points. And then as we go here, you compress and compress. See that it's a straight line.

Mm-hmm. Right? It's log, log, it's a straight line. It's a little bit weird because of the little bit not straight here, but basically it's a straight line. This is a power curve, right? So, but taking that off, you get that gentle curve, which is faster at the beginning.

You can see it doesn't fit well for gold. Yeah. Actually, R squared is better than I would think, relative to the exponential because the exponential seven. But it's not saying like that day corn mom. Right. It's nothing like it. And also, it's not doing that.

Nothing in the gold environment makes sense that. Gold increases, gold ounces come out of the ground at 1.8% per year. That's pretty been a fixed number for about 200 years. That's exponential growth. It's compound growth. It's just like the rate of interest. So, yeah, I can keep going on all these topics. What should we cover next?

The thing that I would be interesting is your read on the AI stuff that's happening right now. Because there's a lot of people calling for like a huge bubble in that. Like, I want to know what your data says. Yeah, so I would say the exact same thing that this analysis I made for gold is going to happen with AI. Again, I don't know the true, let's say stabilized cost for building a data center that would make sense. You know, that's not crazy. What I can tell you right now is if you look at the, here's the top eight market caps of U.S. stocks, including, you know, Broadcom and NVIDIA, which are two chipmakers, which obviously

are going gangbusters right now. Here's the top eight market caps in the world. Tech, U.S. tech. I think TSM might be bigger than a couple of these companies, but I'm just sticking with U.S. tech. So we're at 23.2 trillion. At right now is the top $23.2 trillion. Look at this.

On Liberation Day, earlier this year is 15 trillion before Liberation Day when Trump got elected and everybody thought he was going to save the world, 18 trillion, so higher, it went from 18 down to to maybe even 13, 13.8. And then, you know, just back

two years into the Biden administration, it was 6.8 trillion, total, total. So let's put some trend lines on this and I'll show you. Okay, so the same same deal. Let me know if you have a question on this one, pulling up the chart. That's all good.

I just, I need to see these trend lines on it. Yeah. So you can see, obviously, you know, booms and busts and Maylocks and moments

for everybody. It's just exponential growth, crazy days. Here is the from 2008 trendline. It's a very good trend. 98.7% are squared. I'm putting this on log scale

already just to show you straight lines. This is this chart. It's just total total. Total eight stocks, you know, Amazon, Google, meta, Navidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom. Here's the kegher. It's a pretty great kegher. 24.3%. You know, if you bought, and even before this, you bought Apple in 2000, Google, obviously in 2004, you're happy. All right. But still, huge deviations can happen from the mean. You know, you have the pandemic silliness here, meme stock trading. And then Liberation Day takes you well below them. It can be crazy, but it's clearly an exponential relationship, not like Bitcoin. Not like Bitcoin.

All right, now let's do that same thing we just did with gold. Let's go to the 100th percentile. First of all, notice it's much tighter than gold, right? The old gold one was like, you know, gold went through a long bear. So anyway, this is a, you know, this is pretty, this is why they say the trend is your friend. Like, I'm not saying if you want to, and Bitcoiners do this, by the way, if you, if you want to throw some money into some tech stocks and, you know, take some 2011 sat gains in dollar terms, whatever, you know, never financial advice on my channel. But the, it's, it's, it's much tighter.

And we're actually not there yet. So this is the max, max. Now, notice how tight this is. It's only 1.37x. The trend will be the, like the record. We're not there yet. But let's draw the, like we did, the Peter Schiff trend. Let's, let's, let's guess the best trend. over, I think I did here. Actually, I can't remember. Let's pull it up. Yeah, good. I took it here, not just Liberation Day. So same deal, basically. The last two years, you know, ChatsyPT came out, started 2023. Same deal. Massive growth. Indeed, about the same as gold and Bitcoin at the moment, 41% Kager. So how long can that go? How long can that go? Well, here it's a little bit longer, actually, to reach the max. I'm not saying that this red line needs to be hit, by the way. Again,

This is just statistics. If we think AI is a crazy boom. If we think it's all it's cracked up to be. And a lot of people don't think of that, right? I think it's overrated and chat. DPD seems to get worse and worse every day, taking longer and giving more insane answers. But if you think that it is going to be a C change, a narrative change, okay, well, where would be the level that that would outstretch the prior trend? the level in terms of market cap of these companies is right here. It's about, I told you right now,

they're about $23 trillion. So sticking on that same trend line of the last two years when Chatt GBT came out, that would take us to $35 trillion. So we need to go up $12 trillion in market gap, which by the way, you know, again, you could have huge booms, huge bust, but that's the number. And then, of course, the question remains, how much longer could that go? Would that be a new trend? Would we settle in? I don't know all the answers to those questions, but, you know, this could run. This could run. I'm absolutely not saying that it will not.

But then you've just got to start asking the question, is a 41.1% kegir in the top tech companies in the world? Is that sustainable? Does the cost make sense? The data centers make sense. Does the electricity consumption make sense? Some people think that it is. it seems that Wall Street is way more bullish on Tradfai than it is on Bitcoin, even at this moment. So I'm just going to have to see.

But again, I try to harp on the same ideas on my stream. Like, just draw a trend line. Draw trend line to understand where we've been, which is here on the max level, and where we could go, which is here. And, you know, and then we'll see. And I would say, you know, caution, like caution would be advised if we get to a $35 trillion industry in 2027 and chat TPT still seems as bad as it is today. So, you know, again, I got nothing against them. It's just whatever.

So the thing that I'm interested in there is like the, I think it was around $35 trillion where it crosses the line. I wonder if in before this reverts, if it gets to the size of being big. than the US debt. That would be interesting. Yeah, it would. The, I mean, I don't know how the parallels. It would be fun to run some analyses on like what they pay in taxes and the tax receipts and stuff.

That would, that would be interesting. But I don't have that data yet. What I can tell you with the gold, back to the gold one, is it gets very silly. Let's actually. Yeah, that one's way more crazy than the tech stocks. But I can even show you in market cap. The lesson from this, I think, is sell gold, sell tech stocks, buy Bitcoin. That's my financial advice.

Never financial advice for me. But yeah, you can. Here, here's official holdings. This is another reason why I'm not so. Again, I got no problem with gold. It's fine to hold some gold. I know a lot of people in Bitcoin hedge with some gold. But if you look at something like this, this is the official hold.

All right, in dollar terms. Same deal. Same chart. I got a long and a short trend. All right. So this is worldwide central bank and treasury holdings of gold. Okay. From the 70s.

Very similar. It's going to move with the price, right? Right now, we're at records. This is actually only of July. It's probably, it's going to be a little bit higher than this. It's $4 trillion, right? Wait, tell me what I'm looking at here. Sorry, I missed that.

Yeah. You're looking at, so central banks hold about 1.1 billion ounces of gold. I like to think an ounce is not in tons. I know like World Gold Council talks in tons, but there's six billion ounces of gold available worldwide, jewelry, bullion, coins, bars. Seven billion has been mined throughout humanity. So that extra billion is usually I chalk it up to industrial or losses. No one knows exactly, but it's something like that.

So 6 billion is available. 1.1. Now it's getting close to 1.2 billion ounces is owned by central banks. See, that's a number that I could imagine going up a lot. It's not. It's not, though. This is the thing. This is the funny thing.

So here's the lifetime trend. All right? The lifetime trend. And actually, I didn't, I should have done it from 2000. This is actually, you're going to think it is going up a lot. And it is, but it's relatively. to the price. I need to show you an ounces, which I can show you in a second. So, anyway, let's look at the lifetime trend of all central bank gold holdings out to say 2050.

All right. Can you read that? So it's $6,900 billion, $7,000 billion. That's $7 trillion, right? Thousand billions a trillion. So $7 trillion. That's the whole world, central bank is not just the U.S. and it's, you know, well smaller than the U.S. debt today, which is going to grow. So that actually makes theoretical sense. You know, again, if we think in exponential, things grow constantly, makes sense. Now let's look at this gold price growth explosion. It starts to look insane even by, let's say, yeah, 2035, you're at $70, $85, $85 billion of just holding gold of an explosive gold price. Yeah, that sounds crazy.

It doesn't seem to make sense. And you're going to start to get to numbers that are already bigger than the United States debt. So again, I would love for everybody to just go on a gold standard and we buy gold, but we all know that's not going to happen. And it was already completely centralized after the first year of World War, too, most of the gold win to the United States. So with that chart, though, like the kind of obvious questions

putting our conspiracy theory as hat on is, like, you're relying on central bank data here. Who knows if the U.S. has the gold that they have and who knows if China has way more gold than they have? Like, how reliable do you think this can be? I think it's a fairly good picture. But I totally understand, you know, Gata has all this. They've been talking about it for years that the U.S., most of the gold that you see on the U.S.'s books, which, by the way, isn't even marked to market. They put it at 42 bucks and out so they can have more room for the treasuries that they hold.

with their printed money. But they say that, you know, they have it all. Maybe they don't. Fort Knox hasn't been audited since the Eisenhower administration. All that stuff, I think, is true. But the more important thing is just that gold is notably failed. I mean, again, I say this as someone who has no problem with gold, but it has just failed in the, you know, the, what's the, what's the Bitcoin word? I should use the or the the the the the the teleb term the anti-fragile you know it's just not it's it's been centralized so here's another reason why I don't necessarily think uh gold's going to the moon the biggest buyers of gold have been buying all right and by the way the euro area holds the most right which has hasn't changed in uh really it's gone down a little bit from when the

euro started but this was a there's a big thing that germany did when they They decided that they agreed to come on the euro, so we got to back it by gold. So it is officially backed. It was at least 10% to start, even more, maybe here 15. I think it's still maybe something like 10. The dollar, which again, they might not have. So the euro and the dollar. So at least the Western nations do have it.

IMF, which the US controls. And then people always talk about, okay, Russia, China, India, they're going to be the big buyers or they're going to be the big, you know, drivers of gold demand. first of all, they're not that small. They're not that big. They are small. So I'll take away the Europe, United States, IMF, and Switzerland. All right.

So we do have the rest of the world. It's growing here. But this is, it's not like, in my view, this is, you know, justifying such a insane price as of recently. And if you did a trend here, I don't have it on this chart. But if you went from, say, here, which is confusing because I haven't dollars and ounces. but basically this amount, which is something like 220 million ounces for these emerging market players in the rest of the world, 220 million ounces from 2008, the GFC. It has gone up.

It has indeed gone up. But you're at 400, maybe not even 400 million ounces. I should have the total here. So 220, 230 to 400. If you do a compound on that, an exponential growth trend, it's less than 2% a year. In actual ounce buying, again, we just talked about how gold is growing at 40% on a trend over two years, the actual price. How does that correlate with central bank buying, which is 2% a year or less?

It doesn't square. So I'm not a big, yeah, I'm not a big believer that this is going to change the world. Yeah, because like the narrative that, I mean, I don't follow gold closely, but the narrative I see on like Twitter and stuff is that this is like China Central Bank buying a load of gold that's driving the price up. Like if it's not the central banks, what do you think is causing the price? Probably the rotation that, you know, Mark Faber was depressed about five years ago and all the gold bugs were depressed about five to ten years ago that we got no action sideways moving

from gold since 2011. You know, it was, let's just go back to the long-term trend. And it wasn't like even off the trend, but it's just, you know, it's just, it's, it's just markets, right? They spring, you can have, you can have a lot of movements. And if you can catch that momentum and you can draw lines on the wicks, all power to you. I just prefer to look at things relative to the overall rate of change. Gold is pretty hot right now. It could stay hot for another, you know, two to three years.

but at some point the numbers are so insane. Like central banks, basically, if this is what it is, then governments can just keep printing money and just hold the gold that they have. And, you know, Bob is your uncle, as the Brits like to say. As we know, as we know, you know, that's just not how markets work. And the numbers are just, you know, I guess you could theorize.

that in 10 to 20 years, either we're going to go back to a gold standard or we're going to go back, we're going to go on a Bitcoin standard, okay? Or we'll have a little bit of both. Maybe central banks will start to hold more gold and more Bitcoin. That's fine.

But still, relative to the mining cost, relative to the sales price, there's, it's just like, it's like AI evaluations. It's just so simple. after some time. That it eventually has to revert. Yeah, but it can go.

Look, look here. I mean, it can go by 2030, $20,000 an ounce. That's possible. But with the nature of compounding at 40% per year, like something will break somewhere in the system here. Like that's reverting to a gold standard or something, you know. I guess the bullish thing for Bitcoin here is that if this isn't like a huge geopolitical shift, if it's not central bank stacking tons of gold and it is just a trade,

like at some point you would expect a rotation back to things like Bitcoin. And more importantly, I don't see anything in the buying now that reflects the price action, that justifies the price action. It's the same old central bank buyers that have been buying since 2008. You know, Russia is like a client state of China now. I mean, Russia, Russia's issuing bonds. in Chinese Yuan. Did you see this? No, I didn't. That's insane.

There's now Russian government bonds denominated in Chinese Yuan, and they're going to force, you know, Russian banks and clients to hold them. Like, it's such a disaster state. That's wild. Yeah. So, you know, and, you know, good luck convincing at least the same people to buy those. So it's not, it's nothing. It's, it's, it's continuation of the past. Yes, China's getting stronger. They also got demographic problems. We can talk about the geopolitics all day long, but it's probably more important things to talk about. Maybe quickly, before we do close out, we should talk about Bitcoin becoming the world's biggest base money. I know it's been close. I'm sure the price actually in the last few weeks has dropped that down a little bit, but maybe it's worth just very

quickly explaining what base money is as sort of like cash in this economy. And then maybe just put into context like the scale of Bitcoin because I think it's really easy to not understand how close Bitcoin is to the US dollar in this. Yeah, let's let's do that. Let's do, uh, so I made a tweet of this. Yes, I did see this tweet, but I've not really gone into it in detail. So walk us through it. Explain what's going on here. So I'm showing a snapshot of only America's money supply, which is based to broad, which is base money to M3 back in 2015 to 2025 June. In 2015, there was $22 trillion of total U.S. money supply, total dollars in all different savings accounts, checking accounts, time deposits, repurchase agreements.

And in 2025, June, we have 40. So nearly a double. And if you remember our compounding, a double in 10 years is a 7.2% Kager. So that's roughly what the total money supply is doing. I'm also layering in Bitcoin. So Bitcoin you see here, incredible, $4 billion in 2015 June. All right. That was the crypto winter, as they called it, but I know Bitcoiners don't like that word. 2025 June, all right, we have, we have $2.13 trillion valuation. Okay. And we've gotten close to $2.3. So what I try to talk about a lot as well, so the power curve, I look at if I could do a broad statement about two main pieces of my research is the power relationship that Bitcoin has, you know, to itself, to the hash rate growth, address growth, price, adoption.

There's this power relationship that can ground us and make us, you know, help us understand what Bitcoin does. There's also, of course, the Tradfai world, the money supply. Bitcoin is money. So how does that fit in? I still believe that at the moment, the power growth, the power relationship of Bitcoin, you know, to itself, to its price over time is 95% of the story. 95%. 5% is the Fed, interest rates, the economy, deficits, taxes. Yeah. It's just too small. It's just too small to affect it at the moment. And you can still see that here. Okay. So again, even at $2.1 trillion. And by the way, this is only a, America, this is, you know, the European Union has a similar breakdown, a little bit smaller, the euro, the yen, the yuan, you know, Russia's shitty currency. They all have, uh, broad money supplies, which is deposits, which are representations of value that people give to the banks and then the banks hold assets, which are loans. That's how the banking system works. And all of that is a

compounding function with a rate of growth, an interest rate of growth, year on year. So it's going to grow. It's always going to grow. Bitcoin's going to grow and fiat's going to grow. The most economically comparable money supply to Bitcoin is what's called base money. Okay. So it's here. And that's just like cash in the economy, right? Yeah. So I try to literally show you exactly. So what it is is it's bank reserves, right, which is what banks hold. This is like the bank account with the Fed. That's what, sorry, this is the banks, bank. This is the bank's, bank account with the Fed. It's called a master account. It is digital. It's the, it's the main account. Okay, so it's bank reserves. Also, the vault cash, you know, banks, even though it's kind of weird,

they do hold a little cash still. It's not much. Not enough. Yeah, not enough. Not enough. And then in cash in circulation, which is cash outside the banks, you know, in grocery stores, in retail shops, in your wallet, in a safe under your mattress, whatever. These three things, Bank reserves, vault cash and cash in circulation, total base money. Okay. And in the U.S., right now, if you look at it here in 2025, we got 3.357 bank reserves, 85 billion vault cash, 2.3 trillion. Did I say 3.3 billion? $3.5 billion. 3.3 trillion bank reserves, vault cash, 85 billion, $2.3 trillion cash. All right, you getting somewhere little over $5.5.5.6 trillion dollars in base money. Okay. Ten years ago, it was $3.7.

All right. So it grows. Then you have M1. Okay. So you have M1 is actually the only money supply that overlaps with a so. You notice if you can see these shaded things here, this one's kind of purple. That's because there's an overlap. So cash in circulation is also called M0.

That plus your demand deposits is M1. So that's M1 money. A lot of people like to say, oh, Bitcoin's M1 money. It's not at all M1 money. Yes, the cash and circulation is bare. That's very much relatable to Bitcoin, but demand deposits have nothing to do with Bitcoin. So demand deposits are a representation of wealth that someone deposits with the bank. The bank turns around, loans it, tries to make interest. They may or they may not. But that's,

you know, that's not anything what Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is a U-TX-O on Bitcoin is bare. It's final. It's just like the cash part, but it's not at all like demand deposits. So anyway, M-1 is M-0 which is also part of the monetary base plus demand deposits. That is M1. M1 is demand deposits plus M0. You can see here back in 2015, it was about $3.7 trillion. Today, after the massive stimulus of the pandemic, people still have a lot of cash. It's over $10 trillion.

$10 trillion. Yeah. So that's M1. Then M2, you got the biggest stack. savings deposits. That is $7 trillion in 2015, 8.8 today. Then you got retail time deposits. People know that, right? That's when you actually explicitly put your money in the bank for a specified term. That was $500 billion back in the day 10 years ago. Only now it's a trillion. So there you go. It's a 7.2% Kager per year in growth. You got retail money market funds. That's basically like

a stable coin, but it's basically brokerage account money. $600 billion, 10 years ago. today, 2.1 trillion. And then M3 money. Now, no one on Twitter posts about M3 because the Fed doesn't use it anymore. So people in their broadest representations, they like to do charts of M2 all the time. That's not the total money supply.

It has to be M3. They stopped telling you what that was. The Fed stopped telling you what that was in February 206. I wonder why. Conveniently two years before the crisis. There's two things that are important in M3 that they stopped. So first is repurchase agreements. Repurchase agreements are basically like treasuries that trade like cash. It's people levering up treasuries. It's like you put liquidity in your,

I don't know, you're cracking or your coin-based account and you trade with leverage. That's what people do. They're posting a treasury bond, you know, hedge funds posting a treasury bond with a money market fund and trying to short or do something else more aggressively. And the money market fund in return for allowing that, giving them like that liquidity to do that. in the market, they earn excess of what they would earn if they just bought the treasury bond itself directly from the government. So basically the bottom line is M3 money is less regulated, highly liquid, highly fast money, and it's all institutional money. So you got institutional time deposits, institutional money market funds with like staple coins, repurchase agreements or repose.

So here you can see, this is the total amount. And notice institutional money market funds and repos, big dollar numbers now. Okay. They've all roughly grown with the exception of savings deposits and the exceptions of demand deposits, which grew faster because of the stimulus from the 2020 period. They all roughly grow it. They double every 10 years, right? They grow at 7 to 8 percent a year. But that is what that's what's happening sort of inside the guts of the system. And it's also my, again, I want to keep going back to the idea that, 95% of what you see in Bitcoin is the network growth itself. It's adoption is the power curve. Only 5% is actually this stuff. So, you know, I'm not saying just forget about it or whatever. But, you know, this is rarely and not very significantly on the Fed's radar at the moment.

There's so many other things that they're trying to attend to in the economy. I'm not defending them. I'm not saying they do it right. But Bitcoin is just still so strong. small that we got a while. We got a while. And I expect money supply to double again within 10 years and, you know, double again after that. So if not, maybe even a little bit faster. So that's the lesson I would just try to say is like, look, there's a lot of different money supplies out there. Everything I just drew here for the Americas or for the United States, you can draw for other countries.

And there's even one more thing that actually is not here, which is another reason why the Fed stopped publishing M3, and that is Euro dollars. So Euro dollars or offshore dollars, basically, dollar-based accounts in, you know, Japan. That's not, that was never really counted very well. Are they even able to count that? That's, that's the question. I think you could if someone, I bet the IMF has some idea. I haven't seen a good estimate.

But if you were to like just try and even guess what that number would be, I mean, I imagine this would, that would blow all the rest of these off the chart. Like it would be, uh, it's, it's definitely. on the higher end. Yeah. I've seen wild estimates of euro dollars from being like a couple trillion to 10 trillion to 30 trillion to 100 trillion. Yeah. There's a there's a lot of mixture there that's some people mixing, you know, treasury, just holding a treasury versus holding an actual dollar denominated account. So it's, yeah, it's hard to tell. And I don't have it either. So that's the one asterisk to this money supply that I actually don't have euro dollars. But in any event,

I don't want to be too long here. The point is the money supply is complicated. I'm not defending it. Bitcoin is still very, very small. And at the end of the day, Bitcoin is most like what you call the base money section here, which is bank reserves, vault cash, and cash in circulation. And so, you know, it's growing. It's very close to the United States physical cash. Look at this. You see, this was June, right? So cash in circulation in June was 2.3. It's a little bit more now. Bitcoin was close to passing that this month, whatever the market cap is now it's not going to be 2.3 trillion by, or it didn't close at 2.3 trillion by October. I thought it was possible. Maybe November, if we have the cycle continue, as I say may have,

maybe we will pass it. But this is actually the last fiat money supply part of base money that's just cash, that's bigger than Bitcoin. That seems like a huge signal if Bitcoin gets to the, scale where it's bigger than all, you know, US cash in circulation at least. And it's not even a million miles from the entire base money. Yeah, yeah, it's true. I mean, it's, it's growing fast. It's growing at 40% a year, although declining on a power curve. So, yeah, it's, it's important.

It's growing. I mean, we all know the benefits of Bitcoin, but I'm just trying to temper people's expectations because, you know, as much as we might think hyperinflation is coming tomorrow or hyper-bitquinization is coming tomorrow, none of those things, hyperinflation in particular is not a good thing. It's not something I particularly cheer for. And, you know, some of this, you know, I was on a panel with Peter Todd and Adam back in Helsinki and Peter's been on about this a lot. He talks about like what the, you know, the cypherpunks had to do with code and the national security laws in the 90s. Like at some point, and I don't want to say that the United

States Supreme Court is the ultimate arbiter of this stuff, but at some point, politically, we're going to have to win on some levels here, right? It goes back to is Bitcoin going to be pulled to the trad-fi curve or is Bitcoin going to pull Trad-Fi to the power curve? There will be some political victories that we will need to have. Like, you know, an obvious, I know you got to jump to any, but like an obvious problem to this would be if everyone in the world just accepts that we can't withdraw our Bitcoin from mainstream exchanges. That's not a future I want to say.

Exactly. So these are still open questions. I know a lot of people with the Trump admin thought that like that threat was over. I don't see that over yet. And I see that money supply is still growing. I see the military industrial complex growing. I see a lot of things that are difficult for sort of the Bitcoin future that we all want. So, yeah, maybe it's not the most optimistic note to end the show on.

But I would say, look, we're making interesting records. We're breaking interesting records almost every month with Bitcoin, right? And like I said, this 2.3 cash in circulation here is the last, that's the last fiat stock that Bitcoin hasn't passed in value. It's bigger than euros, yen, yuan, you know, shitty Russian ribbles for sure. But it's not bigger than the US dollar yet. And that will be a fun one. It could happen to November. Could happen to December. But that's not even the size of the monetary base. You still got to count the bank reserves on top of that. It's going to take time. All that, by the way, is about $27 trillion. I'll release my update coming soon.

doing this quarter. So $27 trillion is the total base money of the world. $27 equivalent. Bitcoin, as you know, is 10% of that. So we got some time. Yeah, but it's going to happen. Like, it's not a if it's a when. I think we're in the right industry. Yeah, I think we're the right industry. A bit of a sobering thought to end on. But Matthew, I appreciate you, man. I could talk to you all day. I think maybe honestly, I've got like three or four of the like half our topics here to talk about. So maybe we give it a few months and we go again, but I appreciate you, man. This is great. Yeah, likewise, Danny. All the best to you. Congrats on everything you're doing. And, you know, I hope to see you, hope to see you sooner rather than later. I'm sure we will.

Before we close out, actually, you should tell everyone where they can watch your streams, get all your updates, everything you do. Yeah, you can just find me that handles one base money on Noster, Twitter, whatever, YouTube, one base money as my handle. You can basemoney. website. It's easiest way to remember, probably. Let's go. All right. Thank you, Matthew. This was great. Thank you, Danny. Take care, man.