What Bitcoin Did - GAMESTOP, MICROSTRATEGY & THE FINANCIALIZATION OF BITCOIN w/ Peter Dunworth

Episode Date: March 31, 2025

Peter Dunworth is the Director of a multi-family office and is the co-founder of The Bitcoin Adviser. In this episode, we discuss why Bitcoin is the only asset that can recapitalise the financial syst...em, why Peter believes Bitcoin could become a $100 trillion asset within a decade, why credit markets are ultimately a collateral problem, and why financializing Bitcoin might be necessary to save Main Street from being collateral damage. We also get into Australia's property obsession, GameStop’s pivot to Bitcoin, the difference between Bitcoin derivatives and the asset itself, and MicroStrategy. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: IREN: https://www.iren.com/ RIVER: https://river.com/wbd CASA: https://casa.io/ LEDGER: https://www.ledger.com/ ANCHORWATCH: https://www.anchorwatch.com/ FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Peter Dunworth: https://x.com/peterbtcadviser

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:02 If you start driving a credit application on top of Bitcoin, you can drive huge amounts of capital to it that is going to give you rather than a one-to-one return or a 10%, 20%, that will give you a 2,000 or a 50,000% return on the capital that you drive into it. It's very easy to do. It's just a matter of will. What Bitcoin did is brought to you by our lead sponsor, a massive legend, Iron. the largest NASDAQ listed Bitcoin miner using 100% renewable energy. Iron are not just powering the Bitcoin network,
Starting point is 00:00:38 they also provide cutting-edge computing resources for AI all backed by renewable energy. So whether you're interested in mining Bitcoin or harnessing AI compute power, iron is setting the standard. Visit iron.com to learn more, which is ira-e-n-com. So valuing Bitcoin, everyone's got an idea on it, but from a traditional finance perspective, you look at and think, well, what if we applied a discounted cash flow to valuing Bitcoin?
Starting point is 00:01:06 And the rate that we used was the inflation rate, circa, well, the number we used as the base on this would be, say, $100 million or $100 trillion, I should say, of total global money supply. Yep. That has an average inflation rate, and this is average. It's not the US, but the average is closer to 15. But if we applied the US at 5%, 5%, roughly, that gives us $5 trillion. And at a price earnings ratio or a discounted cash flow of 5%, or a yield of 5%, that gets us to
Starting point is 00:01:43 $100 trillion market cap of Bitcoin. That's a 50x from here at least. So you say these numbers, and I can't get my head around it. Like, I can't see the world where that happens. Like, how do we get there? You're doing everything you can to make that happen. I'm doing everything I can. And this is where there's just a information asymmetry.
Starting point is 00:02:03 We know something that the world doesn't. So there is an information asymmetry, but there's also one from like this future that you're projecting and me. There's an information asymmetry there because I don't get it. Like how does Bitcoin go to that size? What, $100 trillion? That's only 50x from here. That's relatively small in the grand scheme of things.
Starting point is 00:02:23 But what kind of timeframe are you talking? in here. I think that can happen in less than 10 years easily. So what has to happen, though? Where does that money come from? Well, two things happen. It's a supply demand issue. And this is one thing that I'm really excited about because there's a whole host of financial products. Bitcoin is being financialized. Whether we like it or not, and I know there's some conjecture around that. But because Bitcoin's being financialized, it enables the market to be a whole lot bigger. So when you financialize your Bitcoin and you borrow using your Bitcoin, you effectively limit the supply, depending on how you structure the loan. But in short, you limit the amount that's available for consumption.
Starting point is 00:03:03 And at the same time, you increase the demand for it. So it's simply a supply demand curve. And this is where the supply demand curve that we're working with is one that's got absolute digital scarcity that is literally a vertical line. That there's no more, you can't push past $21 million. and it's that side of it. So then there's just a demand curve. And as more and more people understand what this thing is, they're going to apply more and more of their capital to it.
Starting point is 00:03:30 And so this is the fundamental problem that I think most people really have trouble wrapping their heads around when I say, you know, really big numbers that are bigger than what exists today. It's like, it's easy to get there if you understand that pricing is determined at the margin. And so, you know, you're not working, how you work out a market capitalization of something is you look at the most recent price and then you multiply that by the number of units. Because if you would apply or try to sell 21 million Bitcoin today, there's no buy for 21 million. Or maybe there is. And that would, if you sold 21 million in one lot, would drop the price.
Starting point is 00:04:10 And this comes back to market dynamics and trading that if you're going to sell a huge chunk of and a liquid stock, you're going to get a huge amount of slippage. Yeah. And so if you're trying to sell a huge amount of Bitcoin in an liquid market, you'll have huge slippage and say we're currently trading at circa $85,000, give or take. And if we had a huge amount of supply come to market to be sold immediately, that that price could crash easily down to 50 or 60,000. And so what I'm saying is once we understand that price is determined at the margin, and market cap is downstream of the price determined at the margin, we can have a market capitalization that is bigger than everything else or every other asset. And this is what most people sort of try to wrap the head around and go,
Starting point is 00:04:53 but you can't have two quadrillion dollars worth of Bitcoin because there's only a quadrillion dollars worth of assets. You don't need all that money to go in at once. Correct. Yeah. But so this is actually, this is one of the things I want to talk to you about because this cycle, I think, has been the most bullish cycle in terms of news. Like we've had the SBR, ETFs,
Starting point is 00:05:13 sailors stacking a load of Bitcoin and says he's now just going to burn his keys and die with it. El Salvador still stacking every day, but at the same time, prices, like you say, like 85K. Those two things don't line up for me. Why do you think that is? Why don't you think Bitcoin's been able to move higher? I think it goes down to the original dispersion of coins. There's a lot of OGs who have sat on coins for a very, very long period of time. I speak to clients regularly who are looking to transition or to take some of those gains.
Starting point is 00:05:46 and they're holding an audited size position relative to everyone else. And so I think there's just a lot of profit taking, and I agree with our mate Chick-Madie, that, you know, it's really an expectation problem. Yeah. And probably I suffer it more than anyone else. But my expectation is, by my cow, because I should, you know, we should have a fair market val in Bitcoin of, you know, billions of dollars per coin, not millions billions, yet here we are at this point.
Starting point is 00:06:13 But that's back to the information asymmetry. people don't understand firstly what this asset is and then how it's going to function in the financial system moving forward. And I look at this and I think on a much deeper level, when we talk about a whole host of economic problems that we're facing, probably the biggest one is the debt problem. Everyone wants to frame it as a debt problem, but it's not a debt problem. It's really a collateral problem because a debt problem only becomes a problem when there's no collateral to take or make you good on the debt that you're owed. But is it still a debt problem because the only way to get that collateral is to print more money which increases the debt? Well, here's the thing. Yes and no,
Starting point is 00:06:57 because where you started when there was no debt, there was no fractionalized banking. When you printed a little bit of money, you got an outsized return for that. So you got an economic return on that. So you print 1% of the money supply, but that actually increased GDP and productivity by 4 or 5%. Because that allows the banks to lend. Correct. Yeah. And so, what I look at and think, when they print money, it depends what assets that's going to go into. And then there are a whole host of, and people are going to hate this, but this is just the fact of the matter, there are a whole host of rules, regulations and incentives that they can set up to funnel that printed money into certain asset classes. Now, what have we incentivized for the last
Starting point is 00:07:36 40 years? In the Western world, we've basically incentivized really two asset classes. The first has been the pension system has been set up for the stock market and bonds. And, and And the property sector or credit sector has been used to funnel assets or debt into property. And my problem is, is that we are at peak debt levels across all asset classes and across all entities. So personal, we're at peak debt. Corporate, we're at peak debt. Governments, we're at peak debt.
Starting point is 00:08:04 We can't really kick that, you know, up the chain anymore because the governments are over in debt as well. When you look at the asset classes, the asset classes are over indebted as well. we're now doing stock buybacks corporate government, like corporate bond issuance, the government's issuing debt that no one wants to buy anymore. The US Treasury basically issues can't even issue a tenure that they say they do and it's just like, we're playing this game. It's a circle jerk. It's a dance, dance. And no one wants to buy long-dated bonds because basically they're worthless and they get debased and suffer inflation. So there's no real return on that. You look at property.
Starting point is 00:08:40 Property's been a hedge. But if you map out how property works relative to, um, there's debasement of the currency, it's basically within 1%. So I look at this and think, we need to find an asset class where we get the most bank for our buck when we print money and put that to an applied asset. And I look at, you can put it to property, you might get a 5 or 10% return on your dollar that you put in, you might get 10 or 15% if you apply that and put the incentives to the stock market. The bonds are irrelevant because you're printing debt, so it's a net net zero.
Starting point is 00:09:13 or you can apply that printed money to an asset class that's very new, very small, very tightly held by a bunch of psychopaths who do not want to forego their Bitcoin. And for that $1 injected into this space, you might have somewhere between a $3 to a $50x return on that. And so if you're going to create or collateralize, create capital to collateralize the market that we've got, to me there's only one alternative because when you break all those options down, if you want to incentivize property, you are going to add to the cost of living crisis that we're all suffering. You are going to create a whole host of downstream social consequences by financializing property, which we're all living through and we all understand.
Starting point is 00:09:56 Especially here in Sydney. It's the worst. Like it's crazy. Yeah. So we're working on a 16 times. So an average home in Sydney. This isn't a fancy one in the nice suburbs or whatever. This is Sydney median house prices, 1.6 million.
Starting point is 00:10:09 Sydney median income is $100,000 before tax. But I just don't understand how that possibly can make sense. Like where is the demand going from? Is it overseas? I think there's a little bit of overseas. I think there's a lot of immigration, net immigration to the country. But I really don't understand it. And as someone who literally studies numbers and works out, hey, what are we doing here?
Starting point is 00:10:33 When I look at where the opportunity is, the opportunity is not in property because we've got a demographic that's aging out. We've got a recent figure I saw. This was a US, but it'd be there or thereabouts for the rest of Western world. 80% of the world's property wealth is tied up in the boomers. But the next generations don't have the wealth to buy that. And I just mentioned previously that we're at all-time high debt levels and we're, you know, on a, say, on a 20-year adjusted basis, we're at all-time high interest rates. The housing affordability is way out of control. And we don't have the ability to buy those assets from the boomers at the prices they want. So I look at this and think there is the two things that drive, the two major drivers
Starting point is 00:11:16 of capital growth in property, demographic trends, which in Australia is very favorable, and credit growth. Those are the key drivers. And I'm telling you that we're capped out as far as credit goes, so we don't really have that credit driver impulse that we had previously. And I'm telling you the boomers who control the majority of the value in the property, there's no generation behind them who has a higher sized income, higher sized asset based to take on the assets that they're ultimately going to dump on us. But it makes no sense to me. Like I've got a couple of friends who live up in Brisbane who, like they have, the couples
Starting point is 00:11:52 have good jobs. They're like fine, but they're normal jobs, like think teacher or whatever. Like they're that kind of style job and they have two houses. Like, it's so crazy to me that the housing market in Australia is almost like the stock market in America. It's like where everyone puts, every single penny they get goes into the housing market. But like with those numbers you're saying, that can't be sustainable. So what happens? Like when does the housing market get like defuncialized?
Starting point is 00:12:16 I really had to tell you this, but it's not going to be defationalized any time soon, I think, until the bulk of the population realizes there's a better alternative, hence the conversation we have around Bitcoin. because there are probably two or three levers that the government can pull to double the property prices from here. Like I hate to tell you, but probably the most powerful tool that they've got to double property prices from here and make it even more unaffordable. And I'm reluctant to say this because some politician is a good idea. Want to implement it. But, you know, one policy that they could introduce tomorrow is they could make home loan, you know, the cost of home loans, the mortgage repayment, 100% tax deductible. And now all of a sudden,
Starting point is 00:12:58 that increases the impetus and the cost pressure on housing and drive the price up dramatically. And do you think that's something they may do? Of course, because the whole country's in the bag for it. If you look at, and this is probably an Australian thing, but it's also US, UK and Europe thing, is that the whole government revenues are tied directly to this. And if you look at government revenues tied to it,
Starting point is 00:13:23 the majority of it comes from stamp duties and capital gains taxes on property. That's a major driver. If you look at, in addition to that, you look at the Australian stock market. The Australian stock market, nearly 50 to 60 percent of the entire stock market is a property or a property adjacent play. So, and then if you look at the media spend, the media spend, a lot of it's done through construction and real estate and arguably one of our most successful tech companies is realestate.com.com.
Starting point is 00:13:51 The whole country is obsessed, like literally gone mad. It's a property derangement syndrome where we think this is the only way to get ahead. And it's like, oh, if you heard about this other thing, it'd really do it. But like, is that not just kicking the can, and eventually will Australia just have the equivalent of 2008 housing crisis here? Yes and no. We have a very different funding system for our mortgages. So the US had a funding problem because what they did was that no one had to hold the mortgages that they wrote. Whereas in Australia, most of the banks hold a large chunk of the mortgages that they wrote.
Starting point is 00:14:25 So they're responsible for any losses. So they are highly incentivised to ensure that those mortgages are a success. And this is where, you know, we've gotten to a point where I think we're at peak credit and peak serviceability, whereby they're now starting to roll back the availability of credit. They're starting to increase the servicing standards and basically lower the load of value ratios that they give on properties in an attempt, I think, to sort of, they're staring at, you know, they're driving a plane, they're staring at the floor. the ground's coming up really quick
Starting point is 00:14:59 and they are doing everything they can to try and get out of that and Tom will tell, there's a few things they can do to avoid that. This episode is brought to you by River, the best place for Bitcoiners and businesses to buy Bitcoin. With River, you can set up zero-fee recurring buys, making stacking sats effortless. And while you're waiting for the perfect buying opportunity, River lets you earn daily interest on your cash balance paid in Bitcoin,
Starting point is 00:15:23 which outperforms most high-yield savings accounts. What really sets River apart is their unmatched dedication to security. You have peace of mind knowing that River has monthly proof of reserves and holds all Bitcoin in multi-sid cold storage. And with US-based phone support, you'll always have someone ready to help. To open an account, go to river.com forward slash WBD and earn up to $100 in Bitcoin when you buy. That's r-I-V-E-R.com slash WBD. This episode is brought to you by Anchor Watch.
Starting point is 00:15:52 The thing that keeps me up at night is the idea of a critical error with my Bitcoin and cold storage. This is where Anchor Watch comes in. With Anchor Watch, you're protected by their time-locked multi-sig vault and with your own A-plus rated Lloyds of London-backed insurance policy. You get to hold your keys, Anchor Watch holds the risk. Whether you're worried about inheritance planning, wrench attacks, natural disasters or your own mistakes, you're protected by Anchor Watch. Rates for fully insured custody start as low as 0.55% and are available for individual and commercial customers located in the US. Speak to Anchor Watch for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage.
Starting point is 00:16:28 Visit anchorwatch.com today, which is anchorwatch.com. I also want to give a quick shout out to the Human Rights Foundation's Financial Freedom Report. This is their weekly newsletter that drops every Thursday, and it covers how authoritarian regimes use money as a tool for control and how people are pushing back against that using privacy tools and, of course, Bitcoin. It's an amazing newsletter, it's Pure Signal, and you can subscribe for free at Financial FreedomReport.org. Okay, so but you before, you said that there's like three places they can funnel the money.
Starting point is 00:16:58 One being housing. One, was the other one, stocks? Equities, yeah. And then we obviously have Bitcoin. How do they funnel that to Bitcoin? There's a whole host of incentives that they could put to it. What happens if they said no capital gains tax on Bitcoin? What happens if they created a similar lending structure that was introduced for residential mortgages to protect?
Starting point is 00:17:23 mums and dads? What if they created a similar type lending facility or structure that supported borrowing to buy Bitcoin at a nation-state level? So in America, they've got Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which basically was used to support and help anyone who wanted a home loan get into a property and buy. This one had like the ninja loans and no income, no job was it? Complete craziness. Yes. So, you know, someone who was picking strawberries and selling California could go to the bank and say, yeah, I can afford a million dollar property. Have you got a mortgage. Have you got a deposit? Nope. Have you got this? Nope. Have you got pay slips? No. Can we say a bank statement? No. I'm pretty sure in England they used to do negative equity mortgages.
Starting point is 00:18:04 I believe that. Which is wild. So, but what's their incentive to try and push this to Bitcoin? Do they need to own a shitload of Bitcoin first? No, they don't. They don't need to own a whole lot of Bitcoin. What happens if, you know, we give away loan products now with no capital guarantee, no security, no securitization. You look at the personal loan market, how big that is, you look at the credit card funding, you know, it's a trillion dollar market, personal loans. All of a sudden, what happens if you locked up the Bitcoin that they borrowed? And similar to, I'll tell you one of the really interesting incentives that were created to protect borrowers in residential home mortgages. Lending can be extremely predatory, and this is where, you know, it's really important to understand
Starting point is 00:18:50 and what you're getting into, but the government reforms across the Western world basically put in a number of policies to protect the purchaser of property or a homeowner. One of them being that if you give a 30-year mortgage to a client or a customer who comes to the bank, as long as there's good standing on that loan and they've met every obligation of that loan, monthly payment, paid on time, the rest of it, the bank was not able to revalue the property or come and take that from them. So all of a sudden, what if we apply just that one, that one rule to a Bitcoin loan and said, right, we're going to hold you Bitcoin. Another thing that Bitcoin is going to hate.
Starting point is 00:19:31 It's about building wealth and recapitalizing the financial system is one of the focuses of this. But what if they said, yep, we'll hold your Bitcoin. We'll give you a loan. As long as you can meet a, let's say in the US, if you can meet $1,000 a month, we're going to go out and give you a hundred dollars. a month. We're going to go out and give you 100% lend on that Bitcoin. That's going to give you, if they're getting a rate of 5%, and they're paying $1,000 a month, that's $12,000 a year. That's going to be a $240,000 exposure to Bitcoin. Or they'll have three Bitcoin. Now, what happens if they've got those funding options, and you don't reckon Howard Lucknick's thinking of this?
Starting point is 00:20:09 But what I can't understand is why they would offer this? Because everything, like the entire system is broke. No one has any money. Back to the collateral issue, there's debt. Hey, give me my money back. It's like, I can give you this bit of paper. It's like, I don't want the bit of paper. The bit of paper is worthless, meaningless. It holds no value whatsoever. Give me something of substance. And this is where if you start driving a credit application on top of Bitcoin, you can drive huge amounts of capital to it that is going to give you rather than a one-to-one return or a 10% 20%, 20% That will give you a 2,000 or a 50,000% return on the capital that you drive into it.
Starting point is 00:20:53 It's very easy to do. It's just a matter of will. And this is where on, say, a global scale, we've never had a superpower like the US say, hey, we're actually going to support Bitcoin. So for me, this is eyes wide open. Everything's on the table. These are the ideas that need to be discussed, that if we want this to be ingratiated into the system as quickly as possible and ensure Bitcoin's success long term,
Starting point is 00:21:15 these are the things that we should be basically pushing, but as long as it's integrated into the system, it's got the highest chance of succeeding long term. If it stays outside, and this is another point that, I hate I'm going to get, but this is going to be mild, but if you ingratiate into the system, it has a chance to actually beat the system from within, but if it stays outside, then the system will want to kill it.
Starting point is 00:21:36 But if you ingratiate Bitcoin into it and actually see this as a way of creating the collateral that the system is starved of, then all of a sudden you have a way of solving that problem. Yeah, this is one of the things I think people got wrong with the SBR is that people were worried about civil asset forfeiture. And I think if the US own Bitcoin, that actually reduces the risk of civil asset forfeiture
Starting point is 00:21:57 because they don't need to steal your Bitcoin, they've got Bitcoin. But in that scenario you're laying out, what do they do with the Bitcoin they're holding? Are they using that? Are they re-hypothcating that? Are they lending that? How does that work? That's probably where market economics come in.
Starting point is 00:22:13 And there'll be lenders who say, hey, we're going to look after your Bitcoin and, you know, we'll give you a rate of one or two percent. Yeah. And then there'll be lenders out there who say, we're going to charge you 5 percent, but we're not going to re-hypothicate it. Similar to, say, unchained versus other lenders out there who re-hypothecate. Not many left. Love those guys. Correct, right? You know, they blow up at some point in time.
Starting point is 00:22:34 You look at the track record. You've got block fire. You've got Celsius and, you know, the list as long as your arm. But the people who are rephypothecate are going to blow up. But the problem is, we're going to blow up. But the problem is. with so few people in Bitcoin and the adoption rates at, say, running it somewhere between 25, let's call it 50% to be overly generous, is that every year there's basically at 50%
Starting point is 00:22:56 of the Bitcoiners haven't been through a block fire or Celsius and they're going to get themselves burnt on chasing a cheap raid or a better loan and then they're going to figure out that there's no such thing as a free lunch. Yeah, that's interesting though because since I've been in Bitcoin, like 2016, 2017, like, the amount of newcomers has been, like, sustainably, like, pretty high. But I don't know if that's happening in this cycle. Like, I've not really seen a big influx of new retail. I don't know why that is. I don't know if it's unit bias and people are just thinking, oh, this is too expensive.
Starting point is 00:23:25 I'll go be a nihilist and punt on meme coins. Like, why do you think we're not seeing a big influx of new retail now? I think that's probably down to two things. You've got now a viable alternative on the listed stock markets in Microstrat strategy Metaplanet. So capital can be diverted there. It's still really difficult to buy Bitcoin directly. So a lot of people put their hands in the air and say, well, I'm just going to set up a bank account, a breaking account, and I'm just going to buy it on the, buy an ETF or micro-stratagial metaplanet.
Starting point is 00:23:56 And I think this is where sort of the reality of this cycle and part of the underwhelming is, you know, to your point earlier, I personally can't remember a cycle that has had. had more good news and the expectation relative to the performance of what Bitcoin's delivered has been so underwhelming. If you had told me 12 to 18 months ago, we're going to have a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The US government's going to come out and say they're going to have a million coins and then the guy running it's going to say we want as much as we can. I saw that just a couple days ago, yeah, wild. I was also speaking to someone in Austin who was actually like breaking down this into a lemus bill. And from what he told me, this was initially
Starting point is 00:24:39 put out there is like, let's start the conversation. It was like highly unlikely to go through, but maybe we'll start with a million. That would be like rejected and we'll come back and we'll try and get like 300,000 Bitcoin or something. But the conversation has changed so much in DC that they're now like, fuck, this thing might actually pass. Wow. Which is wild. Like if the US come out, say they're buying a million Bitcoin, like all bets are off. Yeah. We're not, we might not be that far away from it, in which case, you know, next time we'll catch up, we'll be like, can you believe we you're so pessimistic. I mean, you're never pessimistic, so I don't think we'll have that.
Starting point is 00:25:11 But one of the really cool things that's come out kind of really overnight for us was GameStop. I want to talk about GameStop. Oh, that's fun. This feels like, obviously we've had other people try and copy the micro strategy playbook to some degree. Like Metaplanet being the most obvious example, but they were a tiny company. They're in Japan, so it always feels a little bit removed. But GameStop might actually be the next kind of Michael, say, the point. play that really works. They've come out and said they're going to issue, is it $1.3 billion,
Starting point is 00:25:41 I think, in convertible nose. How big do you think this is? From a mean perspective, it's about the greatest thing to happen this cycle. Yeah. Because now we have Roaring Kitty leaning forward and checking the stocks and now he's hopefully going to be on Reddit. And I'm hoping he makes his way to Twitter where more bitcorners are to start commenting on GME and Bitcoin. And I just don't think it's going to be, what we would want it to be. Okay, tell me why. Again, this expectation,
Starting point is 00:26:13 this seems to be a common theme here of my expectations, being too much with this. But GameStop is fundamentally a company that is broke. Well, they've got a lot of cash. Sorry. It's got not a lot of future.
Starting point is 00:26:28 It's like a broken business model. Correct. It's the equivalent of Blockbuster with billions of dollars of cash in the bank. So you know it's going to you just don't know when it is. And this is where I look at GameStop as being indicative of people in a vulnerable financial situation personally, companies. And there are, last time I checked this close to 20% of the S&P 500 are zombie companies
Starting point is 00:26:54 operating in a similar type scenario. That blows my mind. Yeah. Like, how does that happen? Like, 100 of the 500 stocks on the S&P 500 that are meant to be our greatest stock market on Earth are effectively existing just to pay interest. Is that just passive flows allowing them to exist? Probably, yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:12 And a lot of financial engineering and this is where if we look at what GameStop is, I think they'll have initial success and then it will fade away because I don't think it has the commitment that Michael Saylor has and the other Bitcoin companies to the underlying asset. And this is where I think. think they're looking at this as a need, not a want. And they've realized that they've, they've, they've probably realized that they've exhausted every option that they can in the marketplace to develop a viable business model moving forward. They've, I think it's fair to say, like,
Starting point is 00:27:52 in public knowledge that they've had a chat to Michael Saylor and, oh yeah, there's a picture of the CEO with Michael Saylor, Ryan Cohen. I think he's, and I'm hoping you can grab him for a pod. I would love to do that. Yeah, we can, he can, he's, directly from the horse's mouth, but I think it's something that he's had to do, not wanted to do, and he's realized, oh, this is kind of a moonshot, but what's going to be, I think, a bigger impact on this is, is that this is probably the first company that's got such a poor forward-looking guidance to their business over a 10-year period. If they can make this work, then the 20% of the zombie companies existing just to pay interest,
Starting point is 00:28:34 in the S&P, are you going to look at this and think, well, this is a shot. A lot of people, I think, are looking at Michael Sailing and thinking, well, that was a fluke, that's a one-off, that can never happen again. And it's just like that party made the guy dancing by himself. Well, now GameStop's turned up. He's dancing with Siler and the rest of it. You're going to have 100 companies or more join that party, but it's just going to be a matter of when, not a matter of if.
Starting point is 00:28:58 I actually might fade that narrative that is not going to be it. Because there's two things that I think are really interesting. interesting here. One, they've sat on a hell of a lot of cash. I think it's like 10 times amount of cash that micro strategy had when they started their Bitcoin thing. I don't know what his intent, like how deep into Bitcoin here is. I don't know if he's like a Michael sailor. I mean, surely he's not, but if he's even close. But then on this flip side of that, it's the most crazy followed stock in the world. I was having a look today. Wall Street Betts is like 18 million people or something on Reddit. And the super stonk Reddit is like a million
Starting point is 00:29:32 people. And so we might have like a whole whole. And so the whole GameStop narrative originally was like Main Street versus Wall Street, right? They thought that Wall Street were treating their stock unfavorably so they were going to short squeeze it and fuck you Wall Street. If a million people or 80 million people have many now see Bitcoin as a thing that actually allows them to do that, how many are going to get orange-pilled? And like if this works, even the first time, like this first debt issuance, why would he not just run it back? I think, think all of that will be true. But I don't think we're disagreeing on that. And it might just be a difference of time frame. Yeah, okay. But so the kind of two things that are interesting here is, like,
Starting point is 00:30:13 first of all, they've issued $1.3 billion of convertible notes, or they're going to issue $1.3 billion. Do you think there'll be the appetite in the market to take that, like micro strategy offering a similar size, that offering? From what I saw it was issued at, say, a 0%. Yeah. So that tells me there's do they know there's demand before they put that out there? Absolutely. Okay. Like they've, they've had all their guys talk around and basically do whatever they need to speak to
Starting point is 00:30:41 to whoever they need to. And typically what happens is the market comes to them, not they go to market. Okay. And this is why, you know, lo and behold, when, you know, you issue a bond, oh, we had 100% uptake on it. It's like, you know, shit. You asked us before we got commitments from you. Yeah, right.
Starting point is 00:30:58 I look at that and think it's, that's, That's how it typically works. You go to market, you do your research, you say, hey, we've got, the ability to issue 1.3 billion, that's where the market's at. Let's put it up. The prices, you know, we're going to get a rate of 0%, and here's the conversion price and do it. So where we are at the moment, that's the expectation from what I can see, and that's typically how that works. Now, GameStop being a meme stock and everything else, maybe it works differently for that, but the social implications of this, and this is where you're going to be a meme stock and this is where you where I think Bitcoin is actually very on brand for GameStop, that is all about the screw the banks
Starting point is 00:31:38 and we're going to do this. And then, to me, that's a perfect marriage with Bitcoin because Bitcoin has always been about, hey, self-empowerment, you know, look after yourself and on the back of, you know, Chancellor on the brink. We now have Bitcoin. That marries or ties in perfectly to the existing, you know, fan base. And the other thing on that is when Metaplanets, started doing this. They were also like a company with a broken business model. Like they are now
Starting point is 00:32:05 just a Bitcoin vehicle essentially. Why do you think that couldn't work for GameStop? Even if like, even if they close all the stores, like surely this could still work. That'd be the first thing I'd do. Raise more money, close all the stores. Just as much debt as possible and then, you know, yeah, raise stop. Metaplanet's an amazing one and gosh Dylan is just a talent. Dylan's unreal. Can you imagine having that talent at that age? I mean, I can't imagine having that talent at any age. Yes, exactly. So a big fan of Dylan and he just does such a phenomenal job.
Starting point is 00:32:39 There are some peculiarities to Metaplanet and being in Japan. And, you know, one thing I find really interesting with Metaplanet v, say, micro strategy, micro strategy trading it at a two times NAV premium. And Metaplanet recently in the last, say, two months was trading it close to a 10 times premium. That's a completely different market. You know, there are some... exogenous problems in that market of owning Bitcoin that make it almost cost prohibitive because of the tax treatment around it. Oh, interesting. I didn't realize. Yeah, government incentives.
Starting point is 00:33:10 You know, they've basically said it's really expensive to hold Bitcoin. We're going to tax them basically out the wazoo if you want to hold it. But you can have stocks and have a preferential tax treatment if you put your money in there. And so I think part of the success that Dylan has had is recognizing different markets, different treatment of underlying asset versus a stock and then that's what to me has caused the premium, you know, that's trading it a three times premium to what Microstredge is. Now, GameStop, back to that, will that be able to trade at a premium? Maybe, but MicroStredge is a dedicated Bitcoin company without, you know, the overhang of a blockbuster style business model dragging it down. And I look at that success
Starting point is 00:33:54 long term unless they're prepared to make hard decisions and just cut the stores and go to 100% online business model and then focuses it on, you know, on a, focus in on a Bitcoin Treasury company, I don't see how that is going to keep up with, say, a micro strategy in the long term because obviously there's economies of scale. There's obviously diminishing returns relative to house, you know, the sizes, but over, say, a 10-year period, I think you'll have outperformance for GameStop in the short term and an underperformance on, say, a 5 to 10-year period. an underperformance to micro strategy.
Starting point is 00:34:31 So do you, like, obviously there's many winner-take-all markets here. Like, Bitcoin is clearly winner-take-all in, like, crypto, tether, winner-take-all and stable-coins. Do you think this is like micro-strategy, we win a take-all in these Bitcoin corporate strategy? Yeah, I do. You do. I do. Short-term it won't be. But once the market matures, it's just going to be exactly.
Starting point is 00:34:53 Is that because there's, like, it might be a lot of appetite, but limited at some point appetite for debt. And if there's one company issuing debt, that's like the premium company to go to. Correct. And here's the thing. This is a really interesting thing from say a stock perspective over the last 20 years. What are the two best performing stocks in, well, I might just wind that back. One of the best performing stocks over the last 20 years has been Amazon. Why were they the best performing stock? Well, one of the best performing stocks is they were able to access capital at the lowest cost relative to peers. So they were able to purchase buildings, build out a logistics business, robotics, you name it, they were able to do this all with the lowest cost of capital.
Starting point is 00:35:35 And so what does that do when you're trying to compete with someone? That basically gives you a huge head start. And I look at what, you know, what's the next company that's had the lowest cost of capital in the last five years? Who's been able to issue billions upon billions of dollars of stock, like, oh, sorry, bonds at a 0% rate, that's even better than what Amazon was able to achieve. I look at this and I think, just on, and this is where micro strategy gets a lot of shade from traditional finance, but just look at that metric on a cost of capital basis. The capital they can raise it is at 0%.
Starting point is 00:36:10 No one else would really, unless there are a Bitcoin company is doing that. And the last company that had a huge advantage at the cost of capital business was Amazon? And how did that go over the last 20 years? Is there another dynamic here, though, where, so I don't know if you saw, this must have been like three or four months ago, American Hoddle tweeted about a bit life crisis. Did you see that? No. So this idea was that every Bitcoin has their bit life crisis where at some point, because of Bitcoin's appreciation, the money you can put into it makes very little difference to your stack. Oh, yes. I understand this concept. So is the idea of a bit life crisis for these publicly traded companies where like, let's say
Starting point is 00:36:50 sailors comes out in five years time and offers one and a half billion dollars just to keep it similar. But the amount of Bitcoin he can actually buy with that relative to his stack is massively reduced, whereas someone like a GameStop or the next GameStop can come in and go from zero to a hell of a lot of Bitcoin. And is there there like outsized gains to do that? In the short term, yes. In the long term, no. Because they all suffer the same fate. And it's a problem that's probably akin to the success of fund managers. At the start, when they're small, nimble, they can outperform the market because they are no longer the market. However, once they grow into a size of significance, say Warren Buffett, all of the major hedge funds, Ray Dalio, you name it. They all grow
Starting point is 00:37:36 into a size that they can't, well, it's very difficult for them. I won't say they can't, but it's very difficult for them to out-compete the market because they are the market. And this is where there's a number of competitions that are happening right now. The first competition that is underway at the moment is for the number of Bitcoin. And Sailor's clearly got a massive advantage of that. And he's gone up that curve and now his rate of accumulation is declining. You've got GameStop just entering the market. They're at the bottom of the S curve adopting much faster.
Starting point is 00:38:09 So there is going to be outperformance in the short term. But what happens, and that's the first game. This is the gold rush he talks about. Everyone's trying to pick up the gold off the ground, hasn't even gotten hard yet. The next iteration of that game is, how do you monetize what you've got? And this is where there's going to be a whole host of financial engineering products, financialization of Bitcoin, and whoever's sitting on the biggest stack I look at, it's going to be like playing poker.
Starting point is 00:38:36 No limit poker. It's like, well, you just need to look around the room and figure out who's got the biggest stack because they're going to be pushing the market around. And that's the meta game. That's the end game. And so although there's going to be underperformance relative to all the new entrants into the market, longer term, whoever's sitting on the most stack is going to have the greatest influence on, well, the greatest influence and the biggest success.
Starting point is 00:38:59 So do you think there'll be now a lot of companies that kind of saw what Saylor did, it's obviously worked incredibly well. They'll be very aware of that, I think. I bet every CFO in the US knows what's happened there. do you think there's this idea that they might have looked at that and been like, okay, was this a one-off? Is this like, Sailor's obviously like absolutely huge in Bitcoin. And now do you think they'll be looking at GameStop being like, okay, if this can happen
Starting point is 00:39:23 twice, maybe it can happen three times and four times and five times? And so do you think this will usher in like a big wave of adoption now? Because we thought that with Sailor and it never really happened until now. I agree. I think this is where, and it's funny, I was having a chat yesterday to a money manager. and I said, what do you like? And sort of a cagey response, I'm like, you know, talking shop. Okay, what are you investing?
Starting point is 00:39:47 What are you like? And I said, you like Bitcoin. He goes, no, don't touch it. There's no cash flows. And I was like, interesting. I said, that wanted me wanting to be too inflammatory. I said, you understand that's been the best forming asset in the last 15 years, but have you studied it?
Starting point is 00:40:03 He goes, no, there's no cash flows. And why did they get so hung up on cash flows? I think it's a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. I think they don't understand that there is a store of value component because it's just this Fiat mine rot that we're all suffering from. There's years and years of financial education, indoctrination that you need to unwind in order to see the bigger picture. And there is a belief that, you know, this is where Bitcoin really sort of changed your
Starting point is 00:40:33 outlook on things, realize that problems are solved on the personal level, not the government level. And so I think there is a reluctance to look at this. But my conjecture is, and this is where all of the Bitcoiners who are looking at this space, I don't fear what's coming in the financial world. In fact, I look at and think anyone who's a Bitcoiner here and Bitcoin maxi, whatever, but anyone who understands Bitcoin has a huge advantage to the rest of the world who doesn't understand it.
Starting point is 00:41:02 Prime example is the conversation yesterday. and what I'm looking at is Bitcoin is the primitive. And if you understand the primitive, then you understand the derivative of Bitcoin being micro-strategy's the first-order derivative of Bitcoin. And if you understand micro-strategy and how they monetize and why they've had huge success, you have a fundamentally deep understanding of Bitcoin and how that relates to it. and then you can understand, and by inference, understand how the bond issuance has been so successful. And it's probably the only bond issuance in the last five years that's had a positive real return.
Starting point is 00:41:43 And what's interesting is Tradfai doesn't want to do the work on the primitive in Bitcoin. So they suffer by missing out on the best performing two stocks in the world in Metaplanet and Micro Strategy. They miss out on the corporate bond issuance and best performing bonds. And then the third iteration, the derivative, the derivative is some of the income ETFs that have been developed on the back of monetising the volatility in micro-strategy. And if you look at these income ETFs, they're generating somewhere between 50 to 150% depending on how you look at it. Now, I'm not telling you to do that, but I'm just saying that paints a very different picture
Starting point is 00:42:18 to your traditional finance or investment advisor, financial advisor, who when you say, hey, can you generate an income for me, they're going to say, great, here's 7% per ann. And just a story on this, one of the products I sent to a friend who's at one of the big private wealth firms, I said, do you have any research on this? Can you give me some feedback? Any suggestions? And the feedback I got was, sorry, we don't cover this, but here are our income option suggestions. And I looked at it and it's like, the annual income of the fund that they've suggested is the equivalent to the monthly return on what we're looking at. Now, obviously a very different risk profile, but traditional finance thinks that that is
Starting point is 00:43:02 going to be a risk profile that's priced up there because of the return. However, if you understand the primitive, understand the derivative, you understand the derivative and how they derive the income, all of a sudden, the risk goes from being there to much lower and far more manageable. And this is where traditional finance is literally missing out on the best performing asset, the best performing stocks, the best performing corporate bonds, and now the best performing income funds. And so to your point about GME coming in and not being a fluke and actually raising awareness that, oh, hang on a second, this isn't a one-off, this isn't lightning in a bottle, this is a replicable process that we can recreate to produce outcomes for our sharehold.
Starting point is 00:43:43 So that's my hope for GameStop. This episode is brought to you by CASA, the leading Bitcoin self-custody solution. I've been using CASA since 2019 and I can't recommend them enough. CASA have options for all Bitcoiners from a 2 of 3 multisig to a 3 of 5 and a private client option for absolute best in class security. CASA also do inheritance which I very recently set up and it really couldn't be easier. My inheritance plan has gone from a vague treasure map for my wife to a rock solid security plan that I have total confidence in.
Starting point is 00:44:14 To find out more about CASA, go to CASA.io, which is cA-s-a-o. This episode is also brought to you by Ledger. If you're serious about protecting your Bitcoin, Ledger has the solution you need. Their hardware wallets give you complete control over your private keys, ensuring that your Bitcoin stays safe from hacks, fishing and malware. With Ledger's easy-to-use devices and the Ledger Live app, managing your Bitcoin has never been more convenient.
Starting point is 00:44:38 Whether you're a long-time holder or new to the world of Bitcoin, Ledger makes it simple to keep your assets protected. If you want to find out more, visit ledger.com and secure your Bitcoin today. That's L-E-D-G-E-R.com. I also want to tell you about cheat code. On April the 11th to the 13th, we're going to be back in Bedford, and we have an amazing lineup of speakers, including X-P-M-Liz Truss,
Starting point is 00:45:01 Preston Pish, Alex Gladstein, Nat Brunnell, James Lavish, and so many more. We then have a football day where we'll hopefully see Rail Bedford win the league again. Last year was amazing. This year is going to be better, but tickets will sell out for this. So if you want to come, head over to cheatcode.com at UK
Starting point is 00:45:17 and grab a ticket. it. But going back to the friend of yours you talked to yesterday, if they're only buying derivatives of derivatives, is that actually a bad thing for Bitcoin? Maybe. I wouldn't rule it out that it's, I don't think it's a great thing. And what would the risk there be? In that you're centralizing Bitcoin with Michael Saylor essentially. Yeah. Yeah. What you're doing is, well, that product works a little differently in that you're monetizing the volatility via options, covered calls, whatever, on that volatility. So you're effectively squeezing that volatility down into an income that you then get a monthly
Starting point is 00:45:59 dividend infrompt. Now, there are a number of really bad ideas as to why you don't want to do that. The first reason is that by default, that income product is going to underperform micro-strategy just holding it in a bull market. And I think we're in a bull market. The other reason why you probably don't want to be doing that outside of the inherent risk with that is that it's a very different tax structure. With micro strategy, you're sitting on a capital gain, you don't pay capital gains
Starting point is 00:46:24 until you sell the stock, and if you've held it for more than 12 months, you typically get a discount on that capital gains tax. So in Australia, it's 25%. There's some concessions given around the globe for long-term capital. However, with this income fund is you're turning that into income, and it's very inefficient from a capital perspective because it's a very high tax rate because you're receiving the returns as income. Now, a lot of Bitcoin is, you know, are starved of income.
Starting point is 00:46:53 They're sitting on big stacks of Bitcoin. And they're like, you know what? I'd kill to pay some tax just to get some monthly inflow. Yeah. So I don't have to look at the stack and think, hey, I'm really rich, but I don't want to sell it. And actually, this is a point that I didn't really make on the assets with the collateralization and why we want to collateralize Bitcoin versus stocks and property is that when you monetize stocks and property, there is a downstream social consequence to that of higher house prices,
Starting point is 00:47:23 higher food prices, inflation and the rest of it. What is interesting about monetising Bitcoin is that because everyone's a, well, not everyone, but a lot, more general. A lot of Bitcoiners are far more obsessive about holding that and DeCoin Preston's term psychopaths about holding it and not wanting to sell it. There are no social consequences for monetizing Bitcoin. relative to the other two assets. Explain that. So you pump a trillion dollars into Bitcoin that goes from a $2 trillion market cap to $100 trillion market cap overnight.
Starting point is 00:48:00 Yes, there's going to be some selling, but a lot of that Bitcoin is not going to move because there's only a marginal difference in the meaning for the people who hold it. But if assets in the property space and the stock space go up five times or two times or three times, there's always that constant churn because you're always looking for something better. And with property, you've got to live in a property. And because you can live in a property, actually here's one of the great conversations I have with some of my father's mates is that I get the, they're reluctant to buy Bitcoin and they tell me you can't live in a Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:48:41 It's like that is precisely why. you want to have Bitcoin as a speculative asset, as the asset that collateralizes the entire financial system, because the very fact that you can't live in it means that you can demonetize the thing that you can live in and make this a lot cheaper relative to that. Yeah. And that is why, to me, it's a feta complete that Bitcoin will achieve that role. Now, whether it takes five years, 10 years or 20 years for the rest of the world to figure that out, I look at that and think, no, that's what's going to happen because that, that
Starting point is 00:49:13 enables that the problem that we've got from a societal perspective is that with traditional finance, Wall Street, has been able to, and this is back to, say, Larry Fink, and what he did in the 80s with monetising mortgage-backed securities, both commercial, residential, if you play that out full forward, 2008, that leads to the global financial crisis where you're literally giving, you know, strawberry pickers in Southern California a million dollar mortgage, and it's like, what could possibly go wrong here? Now, that led to an overinflated property price. and it led to basically people being bankrupted, handing back the keys and the no recourse lending in the US. That led to a global financial crisis because everyone had plowed their money into that because they wanted to return.
Starting point is 00:49:54 That led to the financialization of basically social assets that Main Street use. That's not a good thing to be doing from a societal perspective because there are real-life consequences for financializing the assets that we use and live and live in. enter Bitcoin. And that's created the like period of nihilism that we live in now, which is just getting worse and worse and worse. Correct. And this is, this is to me, like, I'll just look at this and think this is a complete
Starting point is 00:50:24 no-brainer. You mean, you can have the most volatile asset in the world. You can let Wall Street, you know, basically speculate on it. And there are no main street consequences for it. This product was designed for Wall Street. This is what they were trying to achieve all along. They don't want to ruin Main Street. They don't want to rob them.
Starting point is 00:50:45 They don't want to, but that's been the default, what's happened in the last 25 years. If they had an asset that they could monetize that's highly speculative that goes up and down more than anything else, it's the most volatile asset on earth where they can play the games amongst themselves and not have a downstream consequence, that's what they prefer to do because when they blow the world up and have a Main Street consequence, at least to a whole host of regulation, and they don't want that. So I look at this and think, it's only a matter of time before Wall Street figures that out and says, right, we're going to use this asset as our speculative asset. And we'll ride this up and down and we'll remove it from the risks that Main Street have to face. And at the same time, as more capital flows into that, you're going to, on a relative basis, you're going to lower the financialization or monetization of property and stocks.
Starting point is 00:51:35 So I want, I mean, you've said a load of stuff there that is definitely going to piss some Bitcoiners off. in like you said that this product was made for Wall Street. Is the financialization of Bitcoin a good thing? Even if you can't really stop it, because like there's no one that can go out and say, Michael Saylor, you have to stop buying Bitcoin. It's up to him. This is money for enemies. But is it a negative to Bitcoin as like this thing that was meant to separate money and state
Starting point is 00:51:59 and now the state is coming into Bitcoin? There are two sides to it, two arguments. I think you can put the argument forward that this is a huge risk for Bitcoin, because it leads to centralisation and then possibly undue influence or pressure exerted by said Wall Street. That's where I think it is incumbent upon all Bitcoiners to really push a whole host of things. You know, I work really hard on self-custody and making sure that everyone does it, that I know anyway. Running your own note is going to become increasingly more important. I think we're getting into the stage soon where everyone who's on the next,
Starting point is 00:52:38 network will be running their own node. It might be software or what have you, but that's really important. But at the same time, Bitcoin has been incredibly resilient and I've been so impressed with the Bitcoin community because they've been years ahead of just about every social and financial trend. And I can't help but think that if Bitcoin is ingratiated into and adopted by Wall Street, that will eat Wall Street from within. And so at the same time that it eats Wall Street from within, it's actually going to provide a whole host of cover that Wall Street no longer wants to kill it. So it's a tough one. And I'd probably err on the fact that net net, it's probably going to be better in the short term to ingratiate yourself into it, avoid cover while Bitcoin's
Starting point is 00:53:30 still growing. And then as it gets bigger and badder and, you know, it's, what is it, 16 years old, maybe in the age of 25, it'll just wreak havoc and hone the world in its own right. I hope so. What we've seen in America, like on the policy side, and I know those bitcoins don't care about politics, but politics cares about them. And like with the new administration, Lutnik definitely seems like a bitconer, Bessent to a degree. And obviously Trump's got a load of people around him. What's the guy called the young guy who's like leading the digital asset thing in the right? He's great.
Starting point is 00:54:05 I think he's really interesting. And then, like, in a state level, there's loads of people doing really good work in terms of making, like, self-custody, like a guarantee across multiple states. What's happening in Australia? Is anything happening? No. Not that I'm aware. Actually, that's unfair. One of our team members, Bayani, does a lot of work and a lot of lobbying for the Australian Bitcoin industry body.
Starting point is 00:54:29 The rest of the world is really downstream of the US. and this is why we all spend so much time staring at it. Sadly, you know, in Australia from a Bitcoin slash crypto perspective, the forces that they still feel like we're under an Elizabeth Warren slash Biden regime. Yeah. In that there is a genuine operation choke point 2.0 going on right now. In Australia? Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:54:53 Absolutely. I can't tell you how difficult, like the difficulty that we have getting clients to forward their own money to an exchange for them to purchase Bitcoin, and then it's a matter of not like multiple different banks. I did see that Combank limited it to like 10K a day, is it? Correct. Yeah. 10K a month. A month.
Starting point is 00:55:15 Which is very difficult if you want to put a large amount in. And so that's a real concern. And there's no real way of addressing that because from the bank's perspective, they see this as the number one cause of fraud in their banking system. And the problem is because Bitcoin being Bitcoin is, the second the money goes to there, it gets into Bitcoin and then it moves off the exchange, all of a sudden that that's a problem they can't fix. But if it stays within the banking system, they could chase that money around the different banks to recover it. But when it goes from bank to exchange to Bitcoin to off, that money's gone or that Bitcoin's gone. Is it purely them chasing that for fraud or is it they don't want it to leave the banking system? Yeah, that's a question.
Starting point is 00:56:03 That's a question that the financial advisor can't answer. No, I think it's a little bit of both. Yeah. But I think sincerely, you know, Mike's got a great answer on this, is that there's no incentive for them to bank the exchanges because it's all risk and no reward. Yeah. There's no real banking facilities that they need other than the checking account
Starting point is 00:56:22 or a transaction account. And it's like, well, that's $10 a month. And we're risking millions of dollars being defrauded of baby boomers. Yeah. It's like, that's the real reason, but what's difficult is when you, and this is the argument for Bitcoin, but when you've got, say, 500 grand or a million bucks that you've got in your bank account that you think's your money and you want to transfer it to go buy Bitcoin and the bank steps in and literally says no, you're not allowed to do this.
Starting point is 00:56:49 It's infuriating. It's frustrating and it's probably the greatest lesson anyone can ever have in banking to understand that it's, you know, not your keys, not your coins and that money you think's in the bank. It's just, well, it's not money and it's not. It's not yours. Just to go back a little bit, there's one other thing I want to touch on with micro strategy. What do you think his long-term goal is?
Starting point is 00:57:10 What do you think micro strategy will become? A bank. I think it would be a Bitcoin financial service, well, a Bitcoin services company in whatever capacity that looks like. And I don't think we've really got a grasp on what that looks like right now. Same way Rockefeller didn't understand all of the, you know, implications of what he was building at the time. And I don't think Sailor really understood what he was building
Starting point is 00:57:34 if you look at where he started to where he is now. Actually, one thing, sort of, one thing that I was looking at before coming here was what's been the total share buybacks over the last five years from the S&P 500. It looks like there's about $4 trillion of share buybacks over that five-year period. and in the S&P 500, there's only been one stock that's outperformed Bitcoin in the last five years. So 499 to 1, that all of those share buybacks would have been better spent by Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:58:09 Now, to put this in a perspective, sailors purchased circa $40 billion. This is the equivalent of 100 Michael Sailors being in the market. And all it takes is the CEOs to understand that we're going to get a better return by just buying Bitcoin as opposed to buying our stock back. Like to steal from Parker Lewis, that feels like a real gradually and suddenly moment. Like, if people do wake up to that and realize they have to start buying Bitcoin, like, game over. Yeah. Who do you think are the most likely companies to now follow? Like, assuming they do, like to follow SETA and then GameStop, will it be other companies like GameStop that really have no other option?
Starting point is 00:58:47 Or do you think we will see the people like the apples of the world step in and do something here? Apple not doing it, I don't think. I don't think Google will step in. And it's ironic because the Magnificent Seven are all tech companies who should be the most prone to or predisposition to actually buying Bitcoin. But I don't think Bitcoin is a want. I actually think it's a need. So look at the other end of the spectrum. Whoever there's the disenfranchised seven at the lower end of the S&P500 is probably got a much higher chance of trying this strategy because I think Saylor talks about it.
Starting point is 00:59:22 This is what I see talking to clients is a lot of people. people don't come to Bitcoin because they want to get rich. They're trying to get out from under a problem that they've got. And so it's not a want, it's a need. And this is where until that pain has been turned up enough, no one's going to do anything. And this is where GameStop, and the CEO has figured out, okay, my feet are getting so hot now, I need to do something. And this is where I think you're going to have more adoption from that bottom 20% of the S&P 500, the zombie companies, rather than the top end of town because they've got business models. They're making money, their wealth's going.
Starting point is 01:00:00 Don't rock the boat. Correct. The one call that I made, I don't know, like a year ago, which might age terribly, is I thought meta might be one of the ones to do it. Just because Zuckerberg's been on this like based story arc where he's like, I mean, it's all PR. But that along with his like ability to really like have dictatorial control that company and the fact that he, I think he's probably the kind of person that would be
Starting point is 01:00:23 like risky enough to give it a punt. Yeah. I was hoping he would. I thought his dog was called Satoshi or he had a goat called Bitcoin. And one called Max. Yeah. Bitcoin Maxi. So I would have thought that too. And he's got full, like he's got great control over meta. Yeah. I thought that was a great call. I would have agreed with you in every facet and it's been really disappointing since. And to your point about that story arc of maybe it's just all BS what he's pulling. I mean, his body transformation has been nothing short of spectacular. He's a Jack Chad now. He's had a glow up, that's for sure.
Starting point is 01:01:01 Right, let's talk about the Bitcoin Advisor. What's going on? You know what, Bitcoin Advisors, a lot of fun. It takes up a lot of my time, but I can't tell you how enjoyable it is talking to clients about how to get into Bitcoin, how to protect their future. And there's a financial component to it which I sort of park and it's not really relevant. But being able to go on a journey with people wanting to better their lives who are probably at more of a need rather than a want, and this is why I preface that, that it's a need, not a want. I've got to say it's been
Starting point is 01:01:39 really inspiring because you get to go on a journey with clients. And this is something that I can tell you we've seen in the last, say, six months, we have had an outsized number of baby boomers, contact us, get in touch, who are sitting on large amounts of property, ironically, to the conversation we had earlier. And for the first time, I'm seeing baby boomers initiate a conversation that, hey, I'm not happy holding this much property. I need to sell divest, and I need to start allocating to Bitcoin. And if you had to said that was going to happen 12 months ago, I would have said, you are crazy, Danny. Yeah. But they're really, conversations that we're having that we've got baby boomers sitting on large amounts of wealth.
Starting point is 01:02:18 This is like millions of dollars looking to extricate themselves from that position that made them that wealthy to apply it to what some people believe as a risky volatile asset and they're committed to it. That's a sea change. And this is where I see the suddenly, to reference Parker, of the gradually then suddenly, the suddenly parts a lot closer than I think. So I've obviously been for dinners with you where you've had a lot of clients there. And one of the most interesting things is the age of them.
Starting point is 01:02:49 Like these aren't young guys doing this. And have you got them all, well, at least collaboratively custodying Bitcoin? All of them. All of them. Yeah. I'm really curious what they're like mind shift is when that happens. Because like that was a really big moment for me and Bitcoin. When I like actually took my Bitcoin off in exchange, I was like, holy shit, this is like a real bearer asset that I own.
Starting point is 01:03:10 with the collaborative component to it, I'm not sure if they fully comprehend what that is. Because in dealing with, say, predominantly our client base is baby boomers, and I want to be respectful of, or say this respectfully, that they might not be as technically proficient or technologically advanced as, say, the younger generation. I'm sure they'd be the first to admit that. That might be fair. So my primary concern is the collaborative. component to it because I can't afford a catastrophic failure with a single client because that
Starting point is 01:03:47 is a failure of the system. But having it in a collaborative security environment ensures that anyone of any technological standing or sound mind can self-custy their Bitcoin with the knowledge that they know they can't lose it. And then when you peel those layers back, what gets really interesting is you're not going to suffer from a fishing attack. You're not going to get scammed out of your coin on Coinbase or whatever that might be, you're not going to suffer a social engineering attack because that's the scariest one to me is the social engineering side of things. Like my parents had Bitcoin on an exchange for a long time and I was just constantly on about on with them like just never respond to a phone call, never respond to an email.
Starting point is 01:04:27 Like you'll get fish, you'll get socially engineered. And that was the thing that terrified me more than like the exchange getting hacked because they were with a good exchange. And like getting them off that was such a like weight off my mind. So I don't know if you can actually talk about this, but I want to ask the question anyway, because I'm always curious. How do you, because you obviously hold one of the keys. These are all in two or three multistics, right? Can you talk about how you secure your key?
Starting point is 01:04:52 Because that's obviously really important. We'd like not to, but part of, I can tell you that we've got multiple backups. It would be arguably the most secure key on earth. I'd hazard a guess that I'd put our system and process up against just about any other. system and process. What I can tell you is that my Bitcoin is secured in the same way. We've got nearly 45 advisors globally who all have their Bitcoin secured in that. And we've got not only a geographic distribution of keys and a legal jurisdiction,
Starting point is 01:05:28 like a legal disbursement of that, there are a number of safety measures that we put in place that are sort of trip wires for the accessibility of that. And so obviously there are certain people in the office. organization who have access subject to certain things being met, and then that, that degrades over time if certain people are removed from that process. So my ultimate aim with that key, and the Bitcoin Advisor is to ensure continuity of service, so that no matter what happens, if a meteor came down and hit Sydney and blew us out of the water, do we have a contingency for that? Yes, we do. We've got a contingency for something happening on the other side of the
Starting point is 01:06:10 world. And this is where, in the truest sense of the word, having no single point of failure for your Bitcoin is the most important thing that you can do. And probably the only way to understand if you've got no single point of failure or not is to go home and say, hey, loved one, wife, husband, kids, whatever, I need you to move point one of my Bitcoin. Now, if that can be done, your system's robust. And if it can't, then there's probably a whole host of things that you need to do to create that outcome to ensure that you're able to move it because it's funny. Say the Bitcoin Advisor, I'll just preface this by saying the Bitcoin community has been
Starting point is 01:06:55 so incredibly generous to me and I've experienced highs and lows with Bitcoiners. I don't want our service to ever be not adopted or better self-custody standards, not adopted because there's a fee to what we do. So what we do is we make all of our IP available for free. We've got a chat GPT bot that you can download if you've got chat GBT and you can ask it any question. It'll be like just having your own personal advisor. So we give that information way for free because we figure if anyone's here in this market right now, they're going to be exceptionally wealthy, but there are a whole host of traps that you can full foul of in your self-custody journey. And this is where we've been doing this or advising on Bitcoin for coming into our ninth year,
Starting point is 01:07:43 10 years next year. We haven't lost a single Bitcoin. We haven't literally lost a single Satoshi because we adhere to this collaborative security protocol. And we want everyone on earth to take it and run with it. That's how we get people to self-custody. So if someone sees our system and thinks it's great, please take it, you know, do it for your friends, do it for your family and get them into the self-custody. And this is where what I see moving forward, it's incumbent upon all Bitcoiners to really take that leadership role amongst friends or family.
Starting point is 01:08:15 And a lot of Bitcoiners are very uncomfortable with that because they think, well, I don't want to be responsible for that. It's like, well, the alternative is you leave it on the exchange and they might suffer a fishing attack or have their Bitcoin stolen or suffer from an exchange falling over. Yeah. So I think personal responsibility, and this is probably no. true a word was said, in Bitcoin, particularly self-custody, there's no solutions, it's only trade-offs. And so this is, the trade-off we've made is we don't want to ever lose a Bitcoin, and the service that we've got really isn't for Bitcoiners. It's for their loved ones. And so what happens is typically Bitcoiners go through a story arc themselves. Yeah. It's a hero's journey.
Starting point is 01:09:00 Maybe it's not like that. Maybe it's actually go through the depths of despair. Yeah, he's definitely the other way. And you know, you're a genius and then three years of misery before you come out the sun, you're pretty smart again. But on that, you know, I think it's really important to note that those situations, Bitcoin is are really good at it. And they know how to recover their Bitcoin. It's not, the service isn't for them.
Starting point is 01:09:25 The service is for the loved ones who don't have the technical understanding, the knowledge, you know, the ability to avoid fishing scams and the rest of it. Yeah. what are these 24 seed words posted online? Hey, can anyone tell me this? It's like, oh my goodness. And that's where sort of there are two life events that happen for our clients, I think. One is they get really wealthy and realize, and I want to be responsible for this. Or secondly, a family comes along. And not your keys, not your coins. I would never admonish that statement because it's the most important one that Bitcoiners have. But creating a plan for the smooth transfer,
Starting point is 01:10:04 to the next generation is really important. And that's where having an estate plan and probably the most important document that we prepare is having an estate plan and estate plan protocol that can sit with your last will and testament. The estate plan protocol is a pragmatic recovery document that enables you to recover your Bitcoin
Starting point is 01:10:25 or your kids, your family, whoever it might be. And the legal will and testament is how that Bitcoin is to be treated under the law. Now, if you don't have the estate plan protocol locked down, it doesn't matter what the last will and testament says because there's no legal recourse, there's no government mandate, there's no court decree that can recover your Bitcoin if it's lost. And that's where, to me, the best way, and this is probably the secret source, is having collaborative security allows you to have a document that shows you where to find your Bitcoin, but not how to move your Bitcoin. And that's the most important thing you can do. How do you recover it if you remove the Bitcoiner from the equation? And recovering it is really all we care about.
Starting point is 01:11:12 That's very cool. One of my favorite companies that have come through recently are Ankawatch, and they are a sponsor of the show. But regardless of them being a sponsor, I think they're an amazing company. I think it's like the perfect time for them to exist as well. Would you ever work with someone like that so you can offer insurance to the people that you're providing the service for? Because I imagine the demographic of people that you have would love the idea that they had insured Bitcoin.
Starting point is 01:11:36 I think so. And caught up with Becca and Rob a number of times. I love both those people, by the way. I agree. Great people. And I think it's a very interesting company. And it's a really important one for Bitcoin because having an insurance framework associated with Bitcoin, I think is really important. And some of the tech that they built out is very, very neat.
Starting point is 01:12:00 Yeah. And really important for the long-term success of Bitcoin. So full disclosure, I'm rooting for those two and make a watch to really kick ass and get adopted. With what we do, I think it's a conversation with them. And I've had the conversation with Becker. And I hope I'm not sort of breaching any sort of confidentiality. And I don't think I am. But we've been in talks about how would we work with you to offer that service to our clients?
Starting point is 01:12:26 That would be very cool. I'm not, I'm not stuck on anything. What I want to do, and this is where, um, part of the reason why we make all of our, our IP available is that if a Bitcoin looks at and says, oh, that's rubbish, X, Y and Z, it's like, that's the feedback that I really welcome. Yeah. Because I'm, I'm not too proud to think, hey, I can't think of everything and we've got like
Starting point is 01:12:49 an absolute rock star of a team. I can't tell you, they are the best and I often feel, um, humbled by, you know, the team, the advisors we've got. But at the same time, if there's something glaringly obvious that we've missed, we want that feedback. Of course, yeah. And so this is where, for what Rob has put forward, when I first saw, like, I probably had a conversation with him nearly 18 months ago. I don't know if he shared this conversation with you, but what he showed me, literally brought a tear to my eye because this was the stuff I've been dreaming of for, like, for years prior. And Beck being benched.
Starting point is 01:13:26 looks, and she goes, are you crying? I was like, literally it was a tear drop down of, I'm cutting onions. Oh, yeah. Yeah, there were just so onions to hear me. So, um, but it was such an impressive, um, system. It was the Trident Volt. Yeah, it's very cool. Because what I loved about that was, is that that had the ability to use any three keys. Yeah. Globally. And to me, that is one of the key functions for getting global, like global self-custy. And, you know, the mission at the Bitcoin advisor is to get every Bitcoin off exchange. Now, I understand that might be a perilous pursuit. But it's a good mission. Correct. And I look at what that Trident Vault is and think, that is some really neat tech that empowers any Bitcoiner to hold one of the keys for,
Starting point is 01:14:11 you know, their loved ones and get them into that self-custody in a safe environment. Yeah. Well, this has been amazing, Peter. I've got your brother coming in in half an hour, so we need to wrap it there. But where do you want to send anyone? I think probably the best place is the BitcoinAdvisor.com. And if you're on X, you can see me at Peter BTC advisor. Love it. Thank you for this, and I'm excited for dinner tonight. Can't wait.
Starting point is 01:14:35 Cool. Thank you. Bye.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.