What Bitcoin Did - The Four Year Cycle Is Not Broken | Matthew Mezinskis

Episode Date: March 5, 2026

"Statistically, right now, we are basically at the bottom. This is as cheap as Bitcoin gets." Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of Crypto Voices and one of the leading voices on Bitcoin's power law and global money supply data. In this episode, we dig into why Bitcoin's quantile regression is showing we're scraping the absolute floor, why the four-year cycle is completely intact despite everyone calling it dead last year, and what the Fed's balance sheet actually tells us about where Bitcoin goes next. In this episode: • The Power Law: Why Bitcoin at $63k represents the cheapest level relative to trend in its entire history, and what the quantile regression is actually showing • The Four-Year Cycle: How the 2024-2025 price action perfectly follows prior cycles despite the "cycle is dead" narrative. • The 550k Projection: What the power law projects for Bitcoin by 2029-2030. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CLUB ORANGE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Matthew Mezinskis: https://x.com/1basemoney

statistically, right now, according to a quantile regression, we are basically at the bottom. But all it takes is another boom to pull the trend back up with pretty high confidence. We're going to be at $5.50, maybe even higher. The world is moving fast. Be prepared for, say, central banks printing money, but Bitcoin doing nothing. Or be prepared for central banks printing money and Bitcoin also going gangbusters. And Bitcoin's going to be growing on a sustainable curve. global money is going to be grown on an unsustainable curve with a lot of interest.

Those things are going to merge. I think the place to start, Matthew, is on the power law. Has this drop in Bitcoin price affected that? Is it still accurate? Are we on? We're on, man. We are. Yes. I don't want to throw off your first question, because I actually want to start on money supply rather than power law. I had charts ready, and we will. No, no, no, no, no. It's

good. It's a good, we're going to do two things today, which I think are very important. As we were joking, pre-show, it's not like there's anything going on in the world. So people need to back up, take a deep breath, touch grass, play with your kids. There are two things with Bitcoin that can really ground you, and I've actually been following them both since 2018. One is the power law. The other is the base money supply. Bitcoin is related to both. And the power law is something that what I plan to show you a little bit later, we can get into it, is when you think about all these technical charts, you know, straight lines, ABC, correction, Elliott Wave, all this stuff. This is always done in the context of an asset that moves exponentially.

I want to say exponentially, it means it just moves compoundingly, constantly, just like anything you think of if you need a 10% return in your investment or. bond yields 5%, inflation is 7%, you're losing money, whatever. These are sort of Bayesian calculations that everybody does every day, even though they don't know it. This is a, that's what exponential growth is. And you sort of think in probabilities, okay, am I going to be able to cover that or not? The thing is, with Bitcoin, it's totally different. It's totally different.

And so these sort of ABC corrections, Elliott waves, straight lines on a log linear chart, they don't work. And the reason is Bitcoin grows like a network. All right. So we're starting out a little bit of power, but I want to get back to money supply. So a very simple definition of power law. It's like an 80-20 rule. So if you think about something like Facebook, Amazon, Apple, this is a pure definition of a power law. Those are huge nodes in the system. They're centralized controlled nodes. And they have many connections, but there's a few of them. Okay. So there's a few gigantic nodes with an enormous amount of connections. Now, on the other end of that curve,

or the other end of that spectrum, if you can just imagine, the internet has tons of websites, portals, servers, people have private servers, whatever. There are massive amounts of small nodes, right, with few connections. So many, many small nodes, few connections, few large nodes, many connections. That is a power law. And it's unique in that if you apply this concept, to the growth of a financial asset, it never works.

It just never works. The primary reason for that, we don't have to get too much into the math is. It's just compound interest. It's the way debt works. And it usually you get this unstable result. You get the boom-bust cycle. It's really not a conspiracy, just how the math works.

So I'll try to show you a little bit of that as well. It's just a boom-bust cycle. With a power law, what Bitcoin does, and it is 96% R squared, it's a very good relationship. We'll get to it. I'll show you the charts. there is the word, there's a key word that you can think of, and the word is proportional. So Bitcoin grows proportionately to itself over time, unlike exponential growth, which is constant,

and then you can also tag on something that usually happens with constant growth, is it can be volatile when it gets really big, often ends in collapse or restructuring. Every company grows that way. It grows constantly. But with Bitcoin, it actually grows proportional to itself over time. So a very simple, simple example of this, and this is the number. This is what the power law tells us, is that for every 13% increase in the life of Bitcoin, in the life of Bitcoin, the price will double.

That is the power law of Bitcoin. So that is unlike, say, a stock that gets you 10%, or let's say the rule of 72, it's actually 7.2%. So for every, a stock that is growing 10% per year, it will double every 7.2 years. That's the rule of 72 in its finest form. It works best around the 10% compound growth rate. It's a constant growth rate. It doesn't matter.

7.2 years later, if it's still growing at 10%, it will take another 7.2 years to double. That's what constant growth is. But with a power law with Bitcoin, it will actually, the doubling time slows down the larger the network, or you can even use this with organisms as well, with sort of caloric intake. There are some nice power law charts. People can see online about that. Different organisms grow this way. But the bottom line is, so Bitcoin, and we can represent this with hash rate, addresses price. For every 13% increase in the life of Bitcoin, the price doubles. So Bitcoin right now is over 6,000 days old. I don't know exactly. It's the average.

even itself getting a little stale, maybe 6,400, something like that. So every 750 days or so, my math is a little bit off, but roughly, 13% of that, 750 days, i.e. two years, two years, Bitcoin's price doubles. That's the power of allot Bitcoin. That's what it is showing right now. But that percentage will always stay the same. The proportion stays the same, but the time itself, the raw number of time, like days, the longer Bitcoin is around, kind of like think of a Lindy effect, but it's not exactly the Lindi effect definition. The longer Bitcoin is around, all right, the longer it will take to double. And so that is literally the measurement. That's the people like to think in terms of doubling time,

but Bitcoin doesn't work like the Mag 7 or the stock market or bond yields. It just does not work that way. So bottom line is, if you think about this one number, I know it's kind of hard to calculate, but it's 13% and just roughly kind of take it to 10%, whatever. Think about how many days Bitcoin's been around. Take a little bit more than 10% of that. That's the days left for Bitcoin from where it is right now, where the power low is right now, for the power law to double. And it doesn't mean it's going to hit that right on the mark, right?

I mean, you can do this at any point on the curve, but that's what the curve itself says and is very unique. And the bottom line, like the net net of all that sort of hashing out, of the power law, which I didn't plan on going so deep into this point, but it's good, I think, is that it's actually quite stable. It's proportional. It's how networks grow. And it's going to surprise a lot of people because the financial world still doesn't think that way. It doesn't understand it. The financial world thinks in compound growth rates, regular interest rates. Look, I need to get 10% return, this and that. And by the way, I guess I didn't say this number.

right now that doubling every two years translates into a 40% Kager, a 40% compound undergrowth. So that's an enormous return. It's enormous for anybody to have. It's bigger than the mag seven, which I can show you in a second here. But that number's going to get smaller. It's going to get smaller. So prepare yourself for that. But regardless, it's a unique moment in time because to my knowledge, and I've studied,

you know, a lot of banking, monetary history, looked at just a lot of, you know, interesting facets of free banking and stuff. To my knowledge, there's not an asset that has actually grown this way over time. It's a very growing in power as opposed to growing in geometric or growing in exponential is a very stable. It's a stable sort of growth rate. Cities also grow in power, by the way. So just another quick side example.

You know, the reason like cities don't explode into the sun with skyscrapers going, you know, million miles high like the sci-fi movies, right, into space or whatever. The reason they're not doing that is because you don't need all the infrastructure in a city that you would need for a regular person like living out in the countryside. So you don't need as many parking spaces in the city for as many people as there are there. You have public transport. You have, you know, the distribution of water and electricity is completely different in a city than it is out to, you know, some one farmer living in the countryside.

So you had this interesting effect. And the bottom line is with city growth is, yes, it is true that back in the old days, like hundreds of years ago, I want to say the old days, or even in ancient times, cities actually grew pretty fast at the beginning, just like Bitcoin. They grew very, very fast. You know, when Paris was a green field or London was a greenfield, it's growing very, very fast. The Romans colonized London's growing faster. But then over time, that growth slows. And so if you had actually, and there have been charts of this, like look at it. up long-term growth of London or Paris of any city, and you will see this power curve. You will see a

very fast growth at the beginning, and then a more sustainable, gradual, sort of slower rate of growth as it goes forward. So that's what Bitcoin does. Bitcoin grows like that. If you already self-custody Bitcoin, you know the deal with hardware wallets, complex setups, clumsy interfaces, and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen, or forgotten. Well, Bitkey fixes that. BitKee is a multi-sig hardware wallet built by the team behind Square and Cash App. It packs a cryptographic recovery system and built-in inheritance feature into an intuitive, easy-to-use wallet with no seed phrase to sweat over. It's simple, secure self-custody without the stress, and time named Bitkey one of the best inventions of 2024. Get 20% off at Bitkey.world when you use the code WBD. That's B-I-T-K-E-Y-D and use the code WBD.

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because Bitcoin certainly feels very good value right now. And is there ever a time when you would say, okay, the power law is wrong, it's broken? No. So let's get on, let's get on to the charts here. All right. So here is the power law of Bitcoin. This is one of the things that I used to show a lot,

was how the price looks over under the curve at any given time. A couple things to point out. All right, first of all, go down here. See, it's a 96.1% R squared. All right, so that means that this black line itself, the price moves around this black line, 96.1% better with less variance than it would move around the average,

which should be obvious because it's a nonlinear growth. Notice, though, this is a log linear chart. Okay, so people in finance should be familiar with that, except the fact is, if you put a log linear chart on any financial asset, it's going to turn into a straight line, typically. Here you have this sort of pretty, it looks pretty gradual, but you know, you can say it's a little bit faster at the beginning, and then you can see as we move into the future, it sort of tapers out. Now, a couple things to think about, and I'll show you, I'm going to show you two different types of regressions here, and this is as well.

People are going to get access. A lot of people ask me about these charts. I've been working hard to give people access to this, so it's coming in the next month or two. But finally. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's going to be good. It's going to be really good. Claude code has actually taken me to a different level here. It's you talk about the SaaS Pocalyps and stuff. I mean, some of the stuff that I can do now again with pretty much all free and open data is like in my opinion miles better than you could get from like paying $2,000 a month on Bloomberg or whatever.

So it's pretty wild. But in any event, notice we're pretty far under the curve right now, but notice these other bands. Okay. So this is I show this as a sort of, uh, just a general guide, but actually this analysis is not great. I'm talking about these bands where what I'm doing basically is I'm, I'm analyzing, okay, what percentile or what percentage of the time would Bitcoin as a multiple

be over or under the curve? And so if you just look back, you see that these bands are very close at the beginning, but then they expand, right? So what's happening there is as more data comes in, we can see, you know, if there are any extreme moves over or under the trend line. And of course, the trend line at the time, I'll just take some of these bands off just to show you. The trend line at the time was not this nice,

smooth black line. It was actually this gray line. All right, so it's just sort of a little bit of some bugs there, but you can see that it's, right, it's generally growing pretty fast, but this black line sort of shows how it's sort of settled down over time. Okay, but then we want to see, okay, so where are we now and how would that compare to the past? Well, we can do this thing where look at the, look in the tooltip there. You see how already by 2011, the Q100 or the 100th percentile, you see it's, right,

these are very small Bitcoin prices, right, $7 Bitcoin. But already there, relative to the power curve, you see 7.7x on the 100th percentile. You see that? And on the zero-if percent. Tile, see 0.4X, which is actually 0.001, basically, you know, as low as you can get below the, the trend line, you see 0.4x. So what that's saying is, already in 2011, getting 60% below trend or 7.7x above trend is as good as it gets. And actually, I need to go a little bit further out. It's really 2012, say. Now the 0.0 is 0.1x.

So a 90% discount from the power curve or a 7.7x premium. Now, as we go forward, just look at those two bands. Let me even take this out. I'm talking about the extreme bands. Do you see how they don't change? 7.7x, 0.1x. Doesn't matter the prices is happening. Okay, so that's pretty interesting, first of all.

And it shows that you can even see with the 2017 boom, the 2021 boom, there's really no chance on log scale. you can see that we were going to hit those numbers, all right, if you look back. If you did this, now, it's good. In 2017, it got relatively close. It got close. You're right, but 2021 was not relatively close. So you see 20, and you got to find other bands to get close.

So it did get above the 90th on both ones, which is about 2x. And by the way, I was having fun with my, you know, so I'm streaming this stuff every day. And I was enjoying theorizing back in like June of last year. that, you know, okay, so we're going to be counting the days that we're going to be above the 90th percent out, which is 2x the trend. Like, this is really great. We're gearing up, all right? But what I did not, and what I say, I'm pretty proud of, actually,

because I try to do not too much bombast in my predictions. And as the summer was going into the fall, and we were just hanging around the power trend, and people were getting really bullish, everybody saying the four-year cycle is over. this is a new world for Bitcoin, but they didn't really quite describe the new world other than there were a lot of ETFs buying Bitcoin. I noticed that we're starting to now go back under the power curve and it's not looking very good.

And so I said, look, it is a weird cycle. We haven't boomed up to the 90th like we did in all prior cycles. We haven't even got close to the 100th, let alone 2x the power trend. We haven't gotten 7x. And by the way, just to put numbers, by the way, the power trend back last year at this time, I'm talking about is about 100,000, right? So it was $100,000 and Bitcoin was around that.

We were just bouncing along the power trend all last year. So I was saying, okay, this possible. I think we can get up to the 90th. Let's just, it's going to be fun. It's going to be an interesting fall. Let's count the days. You know, the four-year cycle. I'm, I'm a simple guy. Let's not fix what's not broken. Here, it's coming. Right. And it didn't come. And yet all, if you remember, Dan, I'm sure you talk to plenty of them. A lot of the commentator says, you know, four-year cycles over, or, yeah, four-year cycles over. It's a new world. They didn't quite, a lot of these people who said the four-year cycles over, by the way, were not power trend followers. So I said, you know, it's a new world, global adoption of Bitcoin, this and this and that. And meanwhile, I'm watching

it in October go under trend and pretty steeply. And so I said specifically. And I'm not saying this is a huge win because I really don't, like, I don't try to predict the future. But what I do want to show to your listeners and viewers is we can look at the relative risk I said is in like October November I said it a lot I said I'm not going to say the four year cycle is over until like February January January where we're all the sudden at 160,000 right where we're way above the power trend to show me that this is something different and lo and behold it's that fifth year I or I you know the first year of a new cycle if you want to end the cycle on the top we're in 2026 here and we're well below the power trend.

So in my opinion, actually, the four-year cycle is completely intact, hasn't broken. I'm not saying it cannot not break, but it's completely intact. The funny thing there, though, is like I was one of the people that, I kind of bought the narrative that the four-year cycle might be over. And, like, loads of reasons,

one being just like the dynamics of the market definitely changed. But if you zoom out a little bit, like you can also see that this cycle did look different in the run-up to it. Like, I think the close, comparison would be maybe that like 2014 to 2016 period where it's just like a slow grind. There wasn't really any big runs up in price.

Like it did seem different, I think. I agree with you. And this is the other thing about Bitcoin, right? It's like, well, there's so many nice, nice memes. I think everyone gets the price they deserve is the best mean. And Bitcoiners are going to really be enjoying that meme, you know, five, 10 years from now. But yeah, who said it was going to be easy, right? Like, 2021 was kind of confusing

because that first top, which was really the real top, was booming in, and I have a few other indicators show it was the real top was March of 2021. You know, that was early, right? The prior tops came in November, December. And then we had the double top, and then we still went down. Same with this time. We had the ETS approval in January, 2024.

And so all of a sudden we're back at the power curve. when actually that could have taken a long time, like you said, in 2015, 2016, or, you know, again, no cycle's completely identical. That's for sure. Everybody needs to be clear on that. But this is the beauty of the power curve, actually, is it can ground you in what Bitcoin is actually doing. And you can completely, completely avoid the YouTube thumbnails that tell you that you better watch this video or Bitcoin, you know, the world is going to end. Bitcoin's going to 100,000 before you buy it or 60,000 sell it. It's just absolute nonsense. And these people are, they do not have a concept of what the power curve is actually saying

Bitcoin's doing. But can you believe in the power curve and the four-year cycle at the same time? Because the power curve would say that cycles will become elongated all the time. Is that not right? No. There are a few different theories on, if you want to say elongated, but what the The power curve will say is that the cycles will become dampened over time. Dampant. This is actually the point that I'm getting to. They will not necessarily become elongated or short and whatever, but the volatility will become less.

And so that's actually what I'm trying to show right here. Look at, all right, we've looked at this chart now for a while as we've talked through it. It's very unlikely. Now, you have to think of statistics now. in all of Bitcoin's history, all right, the huge moves above the trend at the time, getting to 6, 7, 8x, the power trend. That happened all the way back in 2011. 2017 was close, like you said, and we did get above the 9, the 90th, but not above the 100th.

And again, the 90th is 2x, but not even close to 7X. 2021, not even close to 7X. So I had it totally in mind that we were not going to get 6, 7X last year. when people were making their crazy predictions and also saying the cycle's over. But I did think possible because it happened in every prior cycle we could have gotten to the 90th.

That didn't happen either. Okay. So let's reevaluate our priors. Let's just see where we are. We're still on the four-year cycle. It's totally exact. I'll show you some more charts for the four-year cycle, but I don't want to focus too much on the four-year right now.

But look at... So this is different than an exponential chart. And I'll show you like Apple, for example, as a comparison. But as we can see, the price, if you just sort of see how it moves around these bands, the price itself, as we move up the curve, is getting closer and closer to the black line over time.

Yet, it still has big moves. We're in a big move down right now. But it's getting closer and closer to the black line. It's not getting further away. It's not getting up to the 7-8X. It's not getting down to the 0.1x, which will be $15,000 right now. Right?

To get even to the 10th percentile of a multiple, which is 0.3x, right, that would be 40,000. And the last time we would even have been close to that multiple would have been the scam bankman fraud puking of 2022. And there, the 10th was 13, 13, 14,000. We didn't get there either. All right. So you'd have to go all the way back to 2015 to where we hit that multiple. So just look, just, you know, just marinate on that chart now and look how the green line is not going farther away from the black line. It's getting closer. It's having less variance, less volatility. And that's a good thing. That's, that's reaffirming what the power curve is actually showing, which is proportional stable growth. What do you got to say to that? I mean, it's super interesting. And really, like, the most interesting thing looking at this is that we're at like 60-something K right now. And it looks like there's not many times in the past that it's been this low. So do you think

we are hammering out of bottom sort of where we are right now? I do. I do. Again, anything is possible, but there are two different ways to look at. Now I want to show you a different regression. So as you see in the title here, it says evolving regression power. Okay. So what I mean with the evolving is just what I was talking about. Like let's find the max over under, plot that, figure out, you know, where that is relative to future moves. And the point is, you can see, it's actually not great. It's not even that helpful,

other than just to say it's not going to get there. And when I say, not going to get there, I'm speaking statistically. It's extremely unlikely that the price is going to go to 0.1X, the trend, i.e. 15K, right now. And it's also extremely unlikely the price is going to go 7,8x, the trend, i.e. a million, right now at this moment.

So, having said that, let's look at the other one. Now, this is a quantile regression straight up, not evolving. So here I can get these nice parallel lines. What does that mean? Right. So happening here, actually parallel was the wrong word. Straight, like these smooth lines, and they're not parallel. But what they are having, what they are doing here is I'm taking each data point,

basically in the chart is analyzed relative to all the others. And then you try to do your own sort of. mini-regression in that range. Okay? So what I'm saying is I'm not, the governor here is not like this one, how far above or under the price am I? Am I 7x, 8x?

No. The governor is relative to all the other points. Can I just draw kind of different ranges of this black line? The black line is the OLS or nearly squares. So like here, you see the black line's usually like, it's not exactly in the middle. It's actually close to two thirds. The median is.

the Q-50, so this is, you'll see the difference here. I'll zoom in. They're a little bit different. Okay. So the OLS is 130, the median is 120. You see we're well below that. But then as I draw all the other bands, they have what's called a pseudo, like a pseudo-r-squared to measure them. The point is, none of this is, you know, it's all statistics. It's not gospel, but we can actually get even tighter bands. Notice how they're tighter, right? Then this one. With this one, the Q-100, the Q0, like way off. I'm trying to view this in linear space, right, with a simple multiplication when it's not.

If we were in our old school ABC correction, Elliott Wave, lines on charts, everything moves exponentially, this model would work. And I'll show you that, doing this simple multiplication figures, right, that over or under trend, but it doesn't work with a power curve. It doesn't work as well. Now, I do it, like I said, I still do it as an analysis

to show you generally, okay, this is what 2X trend is. This is where the line is. But you can see it's less helpful. This is the point I'm trying to drive home. It's less helpful as we move forward because all we can really say is these lines are not going to get a hit. Right. There's just no way. But here, here is more helpful.

All right. So this is where we do individual regressions on every point. And then we just draw the lines out. And they're not parallel, which my multiplication lines were parallel. but they sort of they converge on each other they they trace that lack of deviation right they trace that um sort of less not lack of but less deviation that happens around the trend and so what you see is they start to converge on each other and this is even more helpful i would say to show us where a top and where a bottom is so let's go back if anyone's listening to this on podcast i'm sorry you're

going to have to go to the youtube i'll put the video on spotify as well like you kind of need to see this one The first 10, 15 minutes talking about the power curve, hopefully it was helpful. But yeah, it really does help to watch the video with this stuff. So now you can see in 2017, we hit it. All right. We still hit the 100th percentile nights. We did not in 2021. But still, these curves are now closer.

And back to the 2022. I'll just switch back so you can keep seeing. 2022, notice the 10th, the 0.0. zero-th was way far away, the 10th percentile, which in this model would be 13, 14,000. We still didn't hit in 2022, but now we are hitting the zeroth in 2022 here. So we are getting, we are painting bottoms. Statistically, this is a much better chart. Okay, it's much better.

And notice, by the way, notice how the multiples are different. I show the multiples here too. So this is now the multiple of price relative to the trend that you see. And as you see, it's declining. They decline. They all decline. They get smaller. Which is a good thing.

This is a helpful model. So this is only something you can do on a power curve. So what I'm going to say. You can't apply this method, but it's going to be different with an exponential curve. Okay. So with a power curve, doing a quantile regression this way is probably the best statistical way. Do you want to pay less in taxes and stack more Bitcoin? Of course you do.

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or go to cluborange.org. But the interesting thing there is, like on the other one, other chart you were pulling up. The percentile multiple. It looked like we were probably close to a bottom, but there was still some room to go, whereas on this chart, it looks like we're hitting the absolute bottom. Right, right, exactly. And so you have to kind of guess, you have to think, okay, so hopefully we're not going to set some crazy low, but it looks pretty, you know, it still looks low, but we're not quite sure.

here we're scraping the bottom. Now again, to be clear, this is just statistics. Anything can happen, whatever. But statistically, right now, according to a quantile regression of Bitcoin's price relative to the power curve, we are basically at the bottom. I mean, 63K. This is as cheap as Bitcoin gas. Yeah, relative to the power trend, this is as cheap as it gets. And that's the key message. That's the key point. Like, yeah, could it drop another leg down? Yeah, but that's not going to break the power curve. It's just going to pull this zero-eth line. You know, it's just going to slant its tilt a little bit. And the nice thing about this analysis, by the way, Danny, as opposed to the other one is, these lines move independently of each other, right? With this one, my multiple percentile multiple,

it's all about the multiple at the end of the day. So the max multiple is what stays. And that's what keeps this thing parallel. It doesn't happen here. They move independent, and we can sort of see, okay, what could be a more realistic thing. So in my opinion, yes, and again, always never financial advice, but this is relative to Bitcoins, you know, 6,500 day history, whatever it is, we are at as cheap as you can get relative to the power curve,

relative to the Bitcoin trend itself. All right, that happened in 2022. It did not even happen in 2020. 20 is that. Right? Although probably that was closer because this got pulled down further. This is also a thing you can't show it how it evolved. But it was probably closer in 2020 during that scare.

And then really you'd have to go back to like the most thin, thin days of Bitcoin trading to put these sort of multiples in. So that's where we are. And I would say, you know, if you look at this chart, we're going to look at others. If you still want to tell me that the four-year cycle doesn't, have some interesting impact here, I would say, you know, investigate your priors again. I mean, this is, we have, we have hit these types of bottoms at every prior four-year cycle. What is different?

Yes, we didn't have as high-high as last year as we talked about. What's also different is we have screamed down towards the bottom. All right. So in the last cycles, as most people might remember, it took like a year, right? From 2017 to the year to bottom in December 2018, 2021, it took a year. November, December, 2022. Now we have done this in a matter of months. Yes, we didn't have a huge top,

and it was even a little bit earlier, October, but now here we are in February. And this is where I'd say I'm very proud of this analysis is something that really affirmed what I was saying. I couldn't tell you it was going to happen, but I was saying, you know, let's just hold off on this sort of prognosticating how Bitcoin's going to do something way different

than it did in the past. I'll believe that if January, February, we're at like, you know, over 100,000. And look where we are. We're totally following prior cycles. Why do you think we're still trending quite far below that power law line, but we're not really going above it in the bull markets? Ah, okay. So I don't know the exact answer, but I can show you an interesting chart that would say we're actually not at the lowest.

Okay. So this is a cool chart right here. What I'm showing you is, let's say, you can take the forecast off. So here's the old power curve. And this is that gray line that I showed you before. So at any given time, the power curve, it's not a beautiful, you know,

the line that you can draw after all time data. But it's, you know, it does settle down. And it goes to your question. More of it, in fact, two thirds of the time, we're under this green line than above it. That's just the nature of what the Bitcoin power law does. Okay. So it generally tends to pull it down.

But what's cool is we're not at a low. Even right here, right now, we are not at a low. So to show that, you actually have to do an interesting analysis here. And again, this is where I can think. I used to do this like on a monthly basis by hand. It was more difficult. But now with the magic of AI, I can do a lot more quicker. But I could show you every day's forecast of what the power trend would predict today's price to be,

February, sorry, March 2nd, March 2nd, happy spring. March 2nd, 2026. All right, so what you see on this blue line is, was the prediction of the price based on the Bitcoin data at the time in March 2nd, 2026, all right? So you'll notice in the early years, like I said, when we're way sort of booming, you get some crazy prices, all right? You're not reading this wrong, $68 billion. dollar basically you know the june uh 2011 peak when it went up to 35 bucks all right this was just around

the first uh empty gocks hacking the power curve if people were and no one was looking at this at the time trollo lo lo lo is a famous uh bitcoin talk poster which is what i modeled my date off of he was thinking that it was a log logarithmic curve which a little bit different even more explosive at the beginning any event it's not how it's working now if you did a power curve regression at the time it would have predicted March 2nd, 2026, 68 billion dollar Bitcoin. Didn't happen. We had to, we had to wait till we sort of settled into the data. And that happened really around 2016. All right. So, so Giovanni, the Italian, who was big on the power of law. He did it a couple months before me. I did it in,

December, 2018. That's when I first noticed it. And then again, anybody can calculate it now. It's very easy. But right around that time, if you start to look at the forecasted price at any given time, it's pretty close to today's power curve. It is higher. All right, notice, 170K, 190K. It's higher. And it will get pulled down.

As you noticed, and as I said, two thirds of the time price is actually under the OLS. So we get pulled down, pulled down all the way to 130. All right. So 130 is the number right now. And indeed, we're, you know, 50% under that. So it's a huge buying opportunity in my opinion. But let's look if that's actually the lowest, except for, of course, the first, like, few months of data.

The actual lowest painted value is, we have to go all the way here after the crypto winter, as they call it, to May 2017. See what it's starting to show there? 125, 124, 125. Yeah, 125. So it's very interesting. What it's saying is we actually have about 5, 6,000. thousand dollars worth of room to spare before this lower than trend price action sort of pulls you know so we set a record low and i would actually say that's a bullish indicator it's a bullish indicator uh it doesn't mean again the power curve is over if we set a record low it just means

think about what what that means it means the curve doesn't always move lower yeah it always adjusts every day it's not a stock to flow you know fixed sort of thing this this it always adjusts the price but it it doesn't you know we are not at the all time low here which is good and another thing to think about that is so how do i reconcile this uh again think about how crazy that was the price in may 2017 was one thousand seven hundred dollars per bitcoin it predicted and when i say predict i'm very a very statistical term i'm saying it doesn't know the future but it projected $124,000 Bitcoin by March 2nd, 2026. It's remarkable. It's a remarkable fit. It's pretty incredible. Yeah. And so

the other thing to think about is, okay, so it says 124, now we're 130, but we're pulling the power curve down every day because we're under it. That's true. But there's also another force, which is the curve itself moving upward. The curve itself moves up $100 a day. So again, I can't tell you how the math works out there. You just have to observe it and see. But if somehow we went into like super bearish mode, which I again, I can't quite see, especially with all the geopolitical tensions in the world, but we go to some super crazy bearish mode. and the price stays at like the zero if, the tenth percentile for a long time, then it is true. It's possible we could like threaten this sort of all-time low level. But this is, this remains, this is one of my favorite data points

and it just sort of shows like, we're not as bad as it's ever been as far as the power curve, which is bullish. That is bullish and it just shows, I think, the strength of where this curve is. And after all that diatribe, hope it kind of gets to your question of, you know, why is the price always below the curve or whatever? It is true. It's below it two thirds of the time. But that's just the nature of the distribution.

It can also pull the curve up when we get to the boom phases. So you just have to look and see where it goes. So you know what my next question is going to be. So if the four-year cycle is still real, by like 20-29, what price is this predicting or projecting that we're going to be at? Sure. So let's go back to the quantile. It's the best way to look at it. Let's go to the end of the decade. We're about 550. Okay, so if you notice, oops, sorry, that's 2029.

And notice the difference. So let's even show, some people say end of the decade is 2029. Some people say 2030. Let's go to 2020. Just to show you the difference in a year, by the way. So, 29, the highest quantiles, 550, 400. the OLS itself, 235. But then let's just go out one more year.

End of year 2030. OLS, 544, 540, 540 on December 27, 2030. And let's say the Q50, which would be the median, 516, Q60, 500. So again, pretty remarkable numbers. And that number, that 550 number has been there for a long time. I've been talking about this on streams and projecting it for a while. It has been pulled down, like during those boom years of 2021, even though the curve was being pulled down,

you still would be projecting by 2030 December, like $590,600,000. Now we're down to $5.50. So again, that's another example. It does get pulled down. But all it takes is another boom, or just, you know, another crop of people to find the wonders of Bitcoin, to pull the trend back up or back to a higher, you know, sort of level than it was. So I would say with pretty high confidence, we're going to be at 550, maybe even higher by 2030.

Hey, I will take 550 by 2030. That sounds all right to me, Matthew. It sounds all right. We still haven't gotten to money supply, but, and I want to skip it. That's fine. It's good to. No, we can't skip money supply. I want to do money supply.

We've done a 45 minute tangent there on power law. No, no, it's good. Let's stick on the four-year cycle for a second. This is a very checkmated chart. You can get this at Bitcoin Lab. A lot of great charts there. Some of them costs, which I do pay for, but I don't know if this is one. So Hoddlers in loss versus Hoddle is in profit.

I'm going to take off short term, just to look at long term. I think this pretty much shows what's happening. So this is UTXOs, right? So this is pieces of Bitcoin. Who's in loss? Who's in profit? Straight up. Very simple.

let's ignore the 2014 all that you can see red certainly grows but basically every time we go into that year of bust after the boom you get a lot of red okay so percentage wise it can get if you count long and short term it can get even like to 50% or 40% it's a little bit less if you look at only long term but you can see that just like there's a period of deep red before before the market bottoms out. Lo and behold, where are we right now? I mean, I would say, again, this is where I am super bullish long term, but this is where you just got to look at the numbers and think about what's happening here.

I mean, this could go lower, right? This could go lower. And even if it's not lower, I think one of the things that looks obvious from this is is going to go longer at the very least. Yeah. Yeah. That's probably even a more precise better answer. It might not go lower, but it can go.

longer and in my opinion you just can't look at this and say the four-year cycle is is that so yeah we hit this quicker yeah we didn't have as high of a boom last year but you know in any market if you hit your revenue by 50 percent which is what happens to the bitcoin market every four years it's going to affect it it's going to affect it and it takes a while to catch up so let me just put this on percentage again just to show you so here we go the the first Two busts, long-term hoddlers in profit and loss, deep, right? 80%, 70%, the next to 40%, 40% in loss. And here, where are we right now just to show you?

We're at, this is long-term now. This is not short and long-term, but just long-term hoddlers. It was over 155 days. We're at 2080. And again, you'd expect that number to continually drop, right? The longer people have held coins. Right. it would be less, less of a fall, which it has been, right?

So it used to be 80%, then 50 or 40. Now it's totally possible this could maybe only bottom at 30, but I just don't know the number. I don't think anybody does. You have to, yeah, you can, we could do percentiles on this, by the way. I haven't done it yet. I've planned on it. But I would say lower and longer, honestly.

So this is where I would caution sort of the bullish optimism we've been talking about. It's just, you know, we're just under the curve. And it takes time to play out. matter how many ETFs, you know, are accumulating Bitcoin. It could come faster than prior cycles, but it's, this chart shows pretty clearly a four-year cycle to me. This chart shows pretty clearly it's a good time to be stacking some stats. Yeah, yeah, definitely. You want to do money supply? Let's do it. Let's do it. Let's do the money supply. All right. So another thing, just to remind people that don't know who I am, uh, in 2018, I also published a survey of the global monetary base.

so I do that every quarter still. And as this little chart engine that I'm making continues to evolve, people will get access to that, like, every day in a nice format. But the thing about money supply is, you'll also see a lot of hype here. And I just want to try to remind people, you just don't believe the hype. You have to be careful with the hype. Okay, so I'm going to show you.

Here's the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, just the Fed, just the central bank of the United States. This is the craziness after the global financial crisis. They flooded the system with money to not let any of the zombie banks go out, except for Lehman. And Bitcoin was also born during this time. We'll show Bitcoin on log scale. Central Bank is on linear scale. The green is the actual banknotes.

So you see the money supply always increases. And the blue, primarily the big blue number, that is the bank reserves. That is basically the digital money that banks have. Usually they don't want to hold it. But in this case, they did want to hold it because the system was so fragile. The Fed said, we're not going to let, you know, you guys go under for all your bad loans. We'll give you a bunch of bank reserves. And so this is literally the money supply.

This is the printing press. Now, I just want to tell you a quick story. So I started publicly talking about Bitcoin 2017, 2016 a little bit, but 2016, 2017, so 10 years now. I can't tell you how many people in the space, whether they were genuine, or not or sort of thought that they were, you know, honest about the numbers, they would say the Fed, all the Fed does is print. All the Fed does is print. All the Fed does this print. It was not the case. It was not the case. If you look here, all right, the total balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, okay, it was, the total number here is about $4.5 trillion. I need to get the total there.

You don't see it, but it's $4.5 trillion. All right. And it was fixed. They actually fixed that number. They wanted to show the market. They weren't going to print into infinity. And what happened to the Bitcoin price while the Federal Reserve was actually even started to print its balance sheet down, well, the Bitcoin price went up. Now, it is true.

The Bitcoin price went down, interestingly, when the Federal Reserve more aggressively pulled the balance sheet down. But then it started to go up again in a 2019 book. Boom. Then you had the silly season really start to begin. And the market was way, already people could argue, it was way unstable here in 2019. There was a big repo spike in the short-term lending markets of repurchase agreements, which is the type of money. Basically, it's treasuries that trade like money and you get a little bit higher premium. That market seized up.

So they had to increase their balance sheet again. You see it here in 2019. So this was already before the madness of silly season, pandemic. started in the start of 2020. All right. So the Federal Reserve balance sheet went up. Bitcoin was going down. Then, of course, we did harmonize again. We did harmonize again here. And we all went up together in 2021. Bitcoin price and the balance sheet. Then the Fed, there was a very boogeyman number, $9 trillion. They never got to it. You can kind of see it's like they almost hit $9 trillion of balance sheet, but they didn't get to it. And then they started to go down. We had this weird Silicon Valley. Yeah, the regional bank crisis.

Yep, Silicon Valley Bank crisis. A lot of guarantees were given again to banks, some liquidity. So they popped the balance sheet up here. But again, Powell actually, to his credit, said we got to normalize, get down. And there's other things happening here. We don't have to get in all the detail. The point is the balance sheet is going down, all right, from $9 trillion all the way until today. It's like six and a half.

Okay. But what happened to the price of Bitcoin during this period? It's going up. So, yeah, I just want to say this in a, just a purely, like, transparent manner. Like, I've looked at this, Sixth Way's a Sunday, a lot of different balance sheets, a lot of different central bank balance sheets. Bitcoin, it's totally fine to say that when central banks print, eventually Bitcoin's going to go up to handle the loss of purchasing power.

That's the total correct thing to say. But in the short to midterm, nobody knows. And what is more interesting. and important, I would say, is Bitcoin's movement itself happens totally different than the other markets, which is a power curve. So that's a more interesting indicator of where the price could be at any given time. And again, I can't tell you where it's going. I can just tell you the relative risk. Back to the chart we just showed, we are at an extreme, extreme low level relative to the trend. So again, it could always go lower. We could go down a 50, whatever, and set a new low, set a new

zero-th percentile in that power trend, but based on all the prior data of Bitcoin, we're at extremely cheap level. Okay. And what is interesting is, as you can see here, the Federal Reserve, the ECP is doing this too a little bit, and everybody knows what Trump wants. He wants lower interest rates with his new Fed share. So they're going to start printing as well. It doesn't mean Bitcoin's going to skyrocket once they start printing, but it could

line up again. where we could have a, you know, a boom with an increase in money supply, which is another thing, by the way, like, I'm never a, there's a lot of doom and glimmers in the space, right? I'm not, I'm not going to say it's actually good that the financial markets go, haywire, and more money gets printed. Like, we know for sure that's baked in. They're going to do it, okay?

But the point of showing you this curve over the long time in the detail the Fed's balance sheet is here, I don't think they're that correlated at the moment. In fact, you can basically see, yes, the numbers both go up over time. But Bitcoin can go in a two, three-year bull while the central bank balance sheet is going down. And it can also go up while the central bank balance sheet is going up. It just can do both. So I was talking to Alex Thorne about this recently.

And so like you, I got into Bitcoin in like 2016, 2017. And the whole like Fed printing to make Bitcoin go up just wasn't a narrative then that I remember at least. And I think it would be really good to shake that narrative more because it's really like the macro side of Bitcoiners came in in like 2018 as I remember it. And I think all the Bitcoiners that came in sort of 2020 onwards after the COVID print associate like Fed printing money with Bitcoin going up. And I think that's a really limiting narrative. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you can see it right here. They knew, everybody knew. Well, let me let me just take this to the next level. now. So here's the Fed balance sheet. All right, with Bitcoin. Let's just do the global monetary base.

Okay. So I'm showing you the Fed still. That's slightly different. I showed you total balance sheet. This is just the monetary base. So going back here, it's it's just the notes and just the bank reserves. That's the technical difference. There's other crazier things that happen with your purchase agreements. We don't have to go into it. But this is the global monetary base. Okay. So this is every central bank in the world. It's like 100 currencies in here. The value of their currency relative to the price of Bitcoin. So just like you said, the narrative is not always hold true. And look, Bitcoin can go up while they print less money. So that's what it did over the last couple of years.

And then here, so this is a very sort of slow moving, unfortunately, chart. I try to get it right and takes a lot of time now. So this even December now is going to get updated probably only by April. So this is only September. But I can show you with the Fed, as I see, we do have indications that's going up. So that's for sure. We can look at individual central bank balance sheets. But again, this might even be a little bit higher for fourth quarter, 2025, and Bitcoin went down. So again, it's that narrative, it doesn't work on a day to day a week to week or even a month

to month. You can, you know, you can certainly see some things that overlap. The 2021 was very, very clear, right? Very, very clear. But it didn't happen this last time. And I think there's As a bitcoiner, if you want to think long-term, big picture, relax, like we talked about at the top of the show, the world is moving fast, a lot of just crazy geopolitical events. Be prepared for, say, central banks printing money, but Bitcoin doing nothing. Or be prepared for central banks printing money and Bitcoin also going gangbusters. Both can happen. The data does not show us one way or another that Bitcoin has to skyrocket with central banks printing money. And again, I wouldn't even encourage that, frankly, for just a general attitude towards life.

And with like this narrative of the debasement trade, I think that probably would happen. If you just go back to that other chart, because like you say, you can see that those Fed balance sheets look like they are starting to go up again. How aggressively do you think they will go up? Do you think we'll see another big print? Actually, at the moment, so when the central bank balance sheet goes up, interest rates go down. That means they're stepping in and buying. So on the other side of this trade, basically, the other side of all of this money is basically the Fed's portion of government bonds.

They have plenty of room. And actually, I need to pull up another chart. Let me show you a different way to look at this. The United States, like, I've said this a lot, the dollar is the best looking horse in the glue factory, right? So another thing that you can say with this chart. All right, let's take Bitcoin off. You see how this chart has gone down since 2021, 2021, 2022.

It is true that central banks around the world, they all realized that they responded crazily, whether that was right or wrong. All of us in Bitcoin space would think it's wrong and unnecessary and all the rest. But they knew that they had to pull it back. They did. But also, they actually didn't pull it back as aggressively as this looks.

The Fed did, as you can see for sure here. The Fed pulled their balance sheet way down from 9 to, six trillion basically. If you look at the global number, this is a Wittgenstein's ruler thing. I'm showing you in dollars, but if you can just imagine like euros and yen and Yuan, they did go down, but actually it wouldn't be this low

if other currencies also didn't lose value against the dollar. So when they lose value against the dollar, this chart looks even worse. So that's another thing. And so this goes back to the dollar depaysment trade or whatever, even the position that Trump might be in with all of this, all of Putin's buddies toppling all over the world,

these dictators falling over the world, the dollar might come out of this looking pretty good, even stronger. And maybe even too strong, you can argue, and that's what Trump would argue, and that's why he would try to debase the dollar more. He just wants low interest rates for real estate deals, as we know. But that's what he could,

that's the argument he could make. And let me show you another chart that basically, I know you don't like to do politics, Danny, and I don't, I'm not gonna go into it, but this is sort of, this is the same chart, it's a monetary base, but it's in the lens of free world versus autocracies. Now, if there's a sprightly young 20-something saying,

oh, we don't have a true free market, whatever, yes, I know. Nothing's perfect, okay, but go live in Pyongyang if you don't think that we don't have examples of free markets in the West versus autocratic countries. So here I have, basically, I have the United States, I have NATO looking from a military sort of perspective, non-US NATO, which unfortunately includes Turkey. They're definitely an autocracy.

Japan, Switzerland, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Ukraine. Then I have autocracies, China, unfortunately Hong Kong, that's just rolled in, Russia, Iran. And Iran is even overstated because I'm using official market rates and it's not even nearly as high as this. And then rest of the world. Rest of world is basically global south. You got big countries in there.

You got India, Pakistan, but that's the global south. So just shows you the difference. And actually, don't look at this now as a debasement, but look at this as just how much money countries have. I'm going to show you this as a percentage. Okay, so it's coming. Just give it a second. The, this is sort of interesting.

So if you, you know, people always talk about the China's position and they're gearing up to invade. They've already said they want to be ready at least to invade by Taiwan by 2027. That's been public. publicly stated. But look at the financial position of the monetary base. In dollar terms, it's true. This is look a little bit different in different currencies. But in dollar terms, China actually was its largest proportion of the pie back before the global financial crisis, 26% of the pie. All right. Now, and when everybody hated what the communist regime was doing

in China and, of course, their dishonesty of all the pandemic, we don't have to go down the road. they were 15% of the pie. Now they are up to 19%. So they're growing again. But that pie is pretty weak on that side. Like Russia, I'm going to have to hold my tongue to say too many things, but people that know me, though, I'd live on the border of Russia. And they're, you know, Putin has lost three of his buddies in the last 15 months.

He's lost Assad. He's lost Maduro. And now he's lost how many. That they are, there's a new supreme leader, certainly already, tapped, we don't know who it is, and Iran's going to try to keep fighting, whatever. We're not enough to comment on the war, but my point is, this is a pretty weak pie of autocracies. And the dollar might come out looking okay here. And I could make a joke, you know, as long as the United States doesn't flip red on this chart, but let's hope that doesn't happen. So that doesn't happen. Generally, you know, the rule of law, the free world, even as sort of crazy as it is, you might, you might find support for the dollar a lot stronger than people might be anticipating.

And even with that strength, that would allow Trump to debase it more. This kind of plays into the Brent Johnson dollar milkshake theory thing, right? Like, all fiat currencies might fail, but the dollar will be the last one to fail. Yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. You know, I think people have said different variants of that for a long time, and it's absolutely the case. So I don't have this updated through February, but I do, I think, through January. This is the all-time United States debt.

And basically, it's that chart I showed you, the Fed's balance sheet. This is the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet. Okay, this is actual printing press, the money that they print to buy debt. And here is the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet. So the dark green is the actual Treasury securities that they own. So let's just zoom in to, let's say,

post-Global financial. crisis era. You see this COVID print, pandemic print here. And if you take this as a percentage, the picture becomes very interesting. So in 2021, the Federal Reserve owned more United States debt than it had ever owned in its history, 28 cents on the dollar. This is literally what you would call the printing of debt. So this is, this is the, what you see here is the visual of debt monetization for every dollar that the United States had issued in debt. And throughout its history, this was a record in that the Federal Reserve printed 28 cents of that debt. That's what it means.

Which is insanely high number. It is a very high number. But think about this. Other hyperinflations, they go to 100%. The only buyer of Zimbabwe dollars would be the Zimbabwe bank. Okay. So you go, Powell, again, to his credit. to his credit, higher interest rates, he said it very clearly to Jackson Hole speech a couple years ago.

And this was sort of like his life's goal and he did it. So now, look, we are at a level already pre-pandemic, 16 percent, 16 percent or so of, so we've gone from nearly 30 cents on the dollar down to only 15 cents. And that's actually a prior record that was set in like more distant times in the Vietnam War. It's about 15, 16 cents on the dollar at the very end of Vietnam War. By the way, that percentage went down, not because the Federal Reserve was printing less money, but because the United States started to issue more debt. But the interesting thing about that chart is that while it does go down in the interim,

like that dark green section is only going up over time. 100%. 100%. It's not going to end well. I'm not saying that this is where Bitcoin plays into it. It really is the long term. term Bitcoin thesis, at some point, every nation is going to want to get, I'm not going to say they're going to want to get off all fiat currency. And I know the timing of that. Of course, I don't.

Again, just look at the relative risk of the power curve and where we are. But the last thing that I want to get off in the fiat world is probably dollars, because the dollar is still managed in a way where they want to try to protect it relative to the debt. And they have actually done that. Again, the numbers tell a very different story than the narrative. Okay, so to be clear, for those that are listening, we are far from the record of monetizing debt. We're only at 16 cents on the dollar. I'm not saying it's a good thing. I'm not saying I'm not defending the Federal Reserve.

I'm not saying, you know, I'm not a bitcoiner, whatever, if people are thinking about these different things. I'm just saying, this is the reality of the situation. So if Trump comes off of, if Trump has a success, and I'm not sure he has playing that out, but if he does have success in Iran and somehow there's regime change, you could see plenty of room for people to want to buy dollars, use dollars. And that would actually give Trump even more room to make this percentage increase and thus have lower interest rates and thus put another sugar high for everybody for another boom. So I still remember your original question, Danny.

It's not going to go as high unless there's a major like shock to everyone. in the free world, and I use that term strictly, like in the free world. Like if this goes on in Iran for like 50 days or 100 days and the Strait of Hormuz can't get opened and shipping is completely cut off and there are major, major geopolitical disruptions, then it could be like some issues here. But if somehow some sort of normalcy goes, let's even not even theorize with what happens, Maybe some new regime in Iran stays and Trump doesn't fully get the goals done or whatever. You could still generally see pretty moderate growth of economies, shipping lanes get back open,

and Trump has plenty of room to print. And then you could also see even a better outcome, where there's even more demand for dollars. And Trump doesn't even need to print as much, but you could still get interest rates to go down. So the point is, I do not see in the future any sort of pandemic style printing of money or 2008-style printing of money. It doesn't mean it couldn't happen. It doesn't mean there's not, you know, massive debt problems in the consumer credit market and other things. But, you know, there are, I do have to say, as someone who lives next door to Russia, like, it is actually encouraging to see dictators falling. How that's going to work out for the free world, the democratic world, very much an open question.

I would say the United States is actually at a relatively decent position how their balance sheet looks. And certainly, certainly, if something bad did happen, they have plenty of room to print more. So again, that's just my narrative, sort of how I'm seeing the world. Again, none of it has to do with, like, I have no, everything I just said has nothing to do with what's going to happen to Bitcoin in the next two to three months. For that, go back to the power curve. For that, stick with the statistics. stick with for now the idea that four-year cycle is not broken and judge your opinions, your decisions based on the relative risk of where Bitcoin sits relative to this amazing

growth trajectory that it's on, which is a power law. And Bitcoin doesn't need the Fed to go up. I love it, man. This has been cool. Anything else, we've been through a ton of charts there. Is there anything else that you want to be? want to go through before we finish. We have.

I think I, one thing I teased on that I did not actually fully get to. So let me just find it is the, is the, how a normal trajectory of a, of a stock would grow. These are the fastest growing stocks in the world. This is an AI trade. So this is magnificent seven. You know, Navidia, Microsoft, Apple, even Tesla. I wouldn't put Tesla in here, frankly, because I don't think they're pure tech, but that's, that's what it is. So this is now, this is similar.

This is that evolving, this is a good way to end the pod, actually. So it's the same evolving podcast, sorry, I'm evolving, but evolving curve that I started before, right? I said that notice how with Bitcoin's power curve, it gets closer to the line, but actually farther away from the extremes, right? With this one, this is an exponential chart. This is compound growth. This is what we talked about. This is totally different.

This is how all financial markets grow. It's a straight line. on log linear, but notice how Bitcoin set its extremes at the very beginning, right? 7x over trend, 0.1x. This is setting the extremes. This goes back to the same life of Bitcoin, by the way, 2008. This is setting the extremes around the pandemic and after. And I would dare say, in fact, this is not even a risk to say this at all.

These markets can go back to the extremes very easily because they're exponential, because they're more volatile. They don't follow what a power curve follows. And the math is totally different in log linear space. And so you can actually see it's still a great curve, all right, 98% R squared, 98.7% R squared. But look at the volatility. And by the way, I'm not saying don't invest in Mag 7 stocks. Like it's, you know, as long as this AI trade, AI trade keeps going, it's been a great,

you know, look at these Kagers, 27%, 25%. I imagine like passive flows count a lot to this as well and things like that. But like this straight line up just looks like eventually that's a lot. unsustainable, that can't continue forever, surely. Well, uh, you know, uh, the stock market itself, if you did this over 200 years of stock market, you'd have a straight line. It'd be a very gradual, uh, it'd be like a straight line and then the next, you actually get a faster is what Jeffrey West calls super exponential growth.

You get faster and faster curves. Um, you know, I did a, I did a pod, not a pod, a, uh, a circuit last summer around the European Bitcoin conferences and I was trying to trying to compare Jeffrey West theorized about the singularity as a mathematical event, not like Ray Kurzweil talking about, you know, if it's AI or whatever. But there's no doubt everybody's getting, you know, the world is moving faster, people trying to figure it out. There's a couple scenarios.

First of all, I think it's totally possible that all this sort of circle jerk of of capital that's flowing into the AI companies, which is pretty well documented, right? Like, you know, Microsoft invests into Anthropic and Open AI and Amazon as well and back into Amazon and all this stuff. that could be a bubble. It could be like something as extreme as you go up here and then you go all the way down here, right? Yeah.

That's totally possible. But at the end of that carnage, it's totally possible that we have something like, you know, Amazon, the strong, well, functioning companies, just regular business, well-managed companies could come out of that better after the carnage. Now, again, I'm not predicting it. I don't know for sure.

it does seem crazy. But if you look at this curve itself, this is the market cap of the Magnificent 7, $20 trillion. They're actually right on trend. It's not as extreme as it was back in 2021, right, with a meme stock trading. It's not as bad as it was in 2022 when it went out of $7 trillion. So we'll see. Maybe it could run for a couple more years.

I'm not sure. But the point of bringing up the speaker circuit that I did in last year was Jeffrey West, he did not talk about Bitcoin in his book. It's a really good book, scale. People should read it if you want to really dive into the numbers of what we're talking about with the statistics here in regressions and power laws versus exponential curves. He kind of theorizes that we're going to move into some sort of a new.

His singularity is a mathematical singularity. And he theorizes that it could be technology that takes us to the next level, but he's just not sure. And he doesn't mention Bitcoin. And I think Bitcoin is a nice answer to his, his theory of where a lot of this craziness could end and it could kind of, you know, smooth out the volatility and we get onto something more grounded. And it's like the good analogy that Ray Kurzweil talks about is the transcendent man. Okay. So it might have seemed, seemed, you know, crazy in the 50s to

have rock music and the devil was, you know, going to take over society. But, you know, we moved on from that. You know, it didn't take over. And we, you know, we then have, you know, the World Wide Web. And that seems crazy. And then we have the dot-com boom. That seems crazy. But we just, keep moving forward and forward. So I think all of that stuff is going to hold, again, regular markets have huge booms and busts, but the beautiful thing about Bitcoin and the thing that is really undeniably different about Bitcoin is it moves on a more sustainable curve. And so I think I've been theorizing a lot about this on my own show. What could it mean? What could it mean for interest rates, growth, all that. Let's not get into that too much at the end of your show. But I do think

five, 10 years from now, when Bitcoin is theorized to be $20 trillion, right, in market cap, 10 years from now, let's say, roughly, that's going to match the global monetary base. I mean, I plot it quite clearly. By the end of the 2030s, you're going to be at the level of global money. And Bitcoin's going to be growing on a sustainable curve. Global money is going to be growing on an unsustainable curve with a lot of interest, a lot of fiat interest. Those things are going to merge.

They're going to merge. How it happens, I still don't know yet. But that's the hope that the Bitcoin Network gives to us. So that's what I'd say about all that. I think that's the next show we should do. Next time we're in the same place. Let's do that in person and do Bitcoin is the singularity. Good, good, my friend.

I'm good for that. Awesome. Matthew, this has been fun. I'm going to see you in Bedford in a few weeks. Thank you. I appreciate you coming out of the show. No problem, Danny. Looking forward to it.

Bitcoin is cheap. Now is a good time to stack some stats. Tell everyone why they can catch out your stream. Yes. So one base money, you can find me at the handle one base money everywhere, basically YouTube, Twitter, Noster, and the channel is called Porkopolis Economics on YouTube. Let's go. All right, man. I will see you in bed for in a few weeks. Thank you. All right, Danny. Take care.