Will Cain Country - FOX News' Arnon Miskin and David Marcus on the current pulse of voters, PLUS Trump Hilarious on Andrew Schulz Comedy Show

Episode Date: October 10, 2024

Story #1 - In a room full of comedians, including one of the biggest in the world in Andrew Schulz, former President Donald Trump was the funniest. He also confirmed Will's longstanding point on his "weaving" of answers to questions. Story #2 - FOX News columnist David Marcus reports back from his time on the road in Pennsylvania and shares stories about what voters there think about the election. Story #3 - The Director of the FOX News Decision Desk, Arnon Mishkin, breaks down how the election is going for both candidates, and when we can expect to see if Vice President Harris' media blitz will have a positive or negative impact. Tell Will what you thought about this podcast by emailing [e-mail] Subscribe to The Will Cain Show on YouTube here: Watch The Will Cain Show! Follow Will on Twitter: @WillCain Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One, in a room full of comedians, including one of the best in the business, Andrew Schultz. Perhaps the funniest, Donald Trump. Two, the Wilcane show on the road listening to voters, farmers, small-town voters in Pennsylvania. Three, the director of the Fox News Decision Desk, we keep wondering about the polling. Where do we stand today in the race? Let's find out from the director of the Fox News decision desk. It is the Will Kane show streaming live at Fox News.com on the Fox News YouTube channel, the Fox News Facebook page, terrestrial radio, market to market, but always on demand.

by subscribing at Apple or Spotify. And you can always listen to the Will Kane show on podcast. If you want to hang out with this every Monday through Thursday at 12 o'clock Eastern time live, just head on over to the Fox News YouTube page while you're there, subscribe to the Will Kane show. You can also catch us on Facebook and jump into the comments. Join the show, become a member of the Willisha. Huge weekend in sports, huge weekend in college football. Basically, my entire Saturday will be commandeered from noon to midnight by college football.

We have Ole Miss versus LSU. We have Ohio State versus Oregon. And, of course, we have perhaps the best weekend in Texas. We have the Red River rivalry. We have Texas, Oklahoma. Earlier this week on the Will Kane show, Bobby Burak of Outkick.com asked me, Will, would you rather? Would you rather?

one of the best games ever invented. Would you rather Donald Trump win the presidency, acknowledging my biases and my preferred outcomes, or the Dallas Cowboys win the Super Bowl? Put me in a tough position, but ultimately I have to choose America. But I'm going to change that question. I'm going to change that question for you.

I'm going to change that question for the Willisha, for the boys in New York. Do you get up more now that we're here in playoff baseball, huge weekend in college football? do you get up more for a big game say and I know neither of you have a vested interest in Texas so you but say the Red River rivalry as an example would you get up for the big game more or do you get up for election night like which one just demands your interest has you along for the emotional roller coaster just grabs your rapt attention election night

or the big game? Well, the only problem is election night turns into election days sometimes. So it kind of like loses its steam to me. So I'm going to say, I get up for the big game. Tinfoil? Yeah, and in many ways, I've been relatively apolitical when it comes to like elections and things. So I'd probably go say the big game, but, you know, not that I haven't stayed up and watched election coverage. in the past, but like, I don't know, there's something about a good rivalry or, you know,

your show, your, your, your teams in, you know, the championship game or something. I mean, there's, you can't, you can't, you know. Yeah, so my Fox and Friends Weekend co-host Pete Hegg said has made this argument to me. There's so few things in life that manage to thread the needle between unpredictable and consequential. He says sports accomplishes unpredictability, but doesn't really. really rise to the level of consequential. You know, it's interesting, you say, like, people often ask me, you know, do you like sports

or do you like politics better? Did you like being ADSPN? Do you like Fox? And I've been in both, and, you know, I was in politics before I was in sports. But if I'm being honest, I've never really had my attention just passionately consumed by politics. I'm obviously very passionate about sports. But that doesn't mean I don't care.

I guess it's a difference in what I care about. And, you know, today's a different episode of the Will Ken Show. We're going to talk politics. We're going to have Arndon, Michigan, the director of the Fox News Decision Desicions, help us understand the horse race, the polling. I have never been that into the horse race, only as an extension of ideas. Like, I get jazzed in a big conversation. It's what we normally choose to do here on the Wheel Can Show.

I'd like to think this is a show of ideas, less a show about politics, meaning I want to talk about all the dangerous stuff, the stuff that probably would get us dinged on YouTube, because that's what's interesting. You know, not in pursuit of quote unquote conspiracy, but because that's actually when my endorphins fire. Like I'm, I get curious, I get interested, history, race relations, anything that is like the juicy stuff, there's something to ring out of the fruit. And for me, politics just often isn't that. It's just, you know, I told you guys, the Ron DeSantis fan is coming after me because Tinfoil Pat said he thinks it's the best thing we've ever done on our show. Ron DeSantis fans are, they disagree when I did a boot analysis on whether or not Ron DeSantis were lifting his boots.

But see, I'm capable of doing that and it not being really, honestly, an attack on Ron DeSantis. In part, I will tell you this. I saw Dennis Prager say this When men like each other They insult each other That is something unique to men Like he did this example If you're at dinner

And one man turns to another man and says You know Dan you're really ugly It's a sign that I really like you Now a lot of it's in the tone right And you can just never picture a woman Like no women no matter how much they like each other go Sally you look horrific They tell their friend that

And everybody laugh and it and then yeah and then it's a moment of actually coming together that's what men do that's not what i'm suggesting that i did was ron desantis but what i'm suggesting is if i make fun of something superficial it isn't pom-pom waving in pursuit of a preferred outcome so my point is you know first of all that was us just having fun also i was right according to my expert boot experience and it doesn't have any bearing on the wonderful leadership for example he's at exercising right now when it comes to Hurricane Milton. But my point is, I've never thought about politics as a team sport.

I just don't, meaning I don't rah, raw, I can't get that jazzed about, it's just, it actually diminishes it to me. It makes it too small and not interesting. And I mean, if you're not paying attention, wake up in the past five to ten years, the teams have been obliterated. Like they're just, it's like, yeah, yeah, when it's all said and done, it's you're voting for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. But the modern conception of red and blue and Republican, Democrat, it's obliterated if, if you care about the ideas.

And for me, that's when it gets interesting. Election night will still be interesting. It will. And I'll stay up and all of that. And the biggest problem is what you said, Dan, it's like, it's a game that never ends. It doesn't have a punctuation mark. It's not election night. It'll be election week or at least election two to three days.

So for me, the answer is easy. it is the big game it's a unique male emotional experience that is just unmatched and it's because we're allowed to exercise for me our tribal meaningless perhaps passions and channel it into one single piece of laundry at one single given moment for me it's the big game donald trump by the way this week appeared on the Flagrant podcast hosted by comedian Andrew Schultz and the other comedians. It might be a surprise to you. The funniest one was Donald Trump. Story number one.

Flagrin is hosted by Andrew Schultz and, if I'm being honest, I don't know the names of the other comedians. But they managed to do something incredible. They truly did. They managed to get a unique interview from Donald Trump. Donald Trump's interviews can be very repetitive. and his themes and his messages, very repetitive. One could argue simple and repetitive is the way you win over mass communication. But like Theo Von before them, Andrew Schultz and his crew really managed to give you a window into Donald Trump.

I have to say for a moment, as much as I want to shower these guys in credit and they deserve it, you also have to give credit to Donald Trump. Meaning if I had a one-on-one interview, and I've had the group interview with Fox and Friends Weekend, Donald Trump's not going to be the same dude he was unflagrant because the truth is the one thing that it seems like that most people want to rob him of is to me blatantly clear he's self-aware he knows where he is and he's the same authentic guy in all equations but he also understands he said it in this podcast this is an entertainment podcast and he says something like but you know there are some moments where we have to be serious and through the entire thing he is being funny He is being substantive, he is being personable, and at the same time being a leader. Credit to Schultz with his first question about, his first question to Donald Trump was about his children. It's a great question. He said, all of us here are raising children.

You have, and you've managed to accomplish something. They're all pretty well to do, not just inherited wealth, like they're doing productive things in life. They're pretty productive members of society. you know, not a lot of Hunter-Biden's within the Trump's. And maybe most important of all, they want to be around you. Like, they're not running away.

And they asked him about that, like, how did that happen? Well, it's kind of fascinating. And one of the comedians says this, Donald Trump's answer doesn't talk about Donald Trump. He talks about the kids. And again, you're like, well, for someone who's so self-focused, he doesn't speak in the eye that much.

The only thing he says he said was, no drinking. No drugs, no cigarettes. But as is often the case, and I've laid out to you here, you have to figure out the roller coaster ride, the ramble of Donald Trump answer. And again, in self-awareness, he knows he's doing it. And I thought this was absolutely the best part of the podcast. He explains what he describes as The Weave. You know, I do a thing called The Weave. And there are those that are fair that say, this guy is so genius.

And then others would say, oh, he rambled. I don't ramble. If I saw this story, what you do is you weave things and you do it. You have to have certain things. You need an extraordinary memory because you have to come back to where you started. A weave is only good if you come back for that. You can go all the way over here and then get back. I can go so far here or there.

And I can come back to exactly where I started. Now, someday when you don't come back to where you started, you're Biden. But the weave is the way. The weave is the way. And you know what? It's the perfect way to describe a Donald Trump answer. I'd like to think that I weave.

All it means is you indulge your parentheticals. And meaning when you have a point to make or to answer a question directly. And as you're doing so, other thoughts pop into your head or something you think is interesting or a story. And it may not, in Donald Trump's case, even because. connected to the original point. But he does remember. He does remember the original question of the original point. They pressed him on one because he avoided it.

And good on flagrant. They pressed him on it like three times. The question specifically was, who do you think is behind your assassination attempt? And it's pretty obvious in that podcast. He doesn't want to answer that for whatever reason. He does not want to answer. So he weaves and weaves and they say,

yeah, you've weaved your way out of ever answering that question. And he laughs along. He ultimately, by the way, after being pressed three times, he does kind of answer that he thinks the most likely, if there is a coordinated campaign behind him, the most likely answer is Iran. He doesn't, I think, get, he doesn't weave in, I think, part of that, which is, look, some lone wolf crazies who are fed a steady diet of insanity from a mainstream media thinking Donald Trump is Hitler. That doesn't mean that's what I am sure the answer is, because he does go into, like, cell phones and foreign apps that are on these guys' phones. but he doesn't really want to answer except to the point that he ultimately points to Iran but the weave is him

going on these parentheticals just indulging this story oh and this story leads to that story this is honestly how my dad told stories and you know other people who do this the part thing is they filibuster you're like hey man you've been speaking for like seven minutes yeah but I'm getting to my point

yeah but can you cut out a few turns in the weave but he's self-aware he understands the weave and he's even in on the joke, as he's describing for you, the weave. I thought that was my favorite, absolute favorite point in the interview. Now, there's another revealing point in this interview that I had never noticed. So if I'm being honest with you, I spent five years in sports from 15 to 20. And my exposure to Donald Trump, and therefore my consumption of Donald Trump was largely through what washes over you.

And this is why we often talk about the bias of CNN or the bias of NBC. because for whatever reason, those outlets are what wash over you. Like, have you ever seen these men on the street interviews of people? You know, I just saw one this morning of a young lady talking young man. You hate Donald Trump. Why? And then he's racist. He's sexist. Okay, what is he said or done that's racist or sexist? And she didn't, she doesn't know.

And she kind of like just bumbles around goes, well, I've seen clips. But I haven't even actually seen that many videos because of what washes over you. Here, let me do a weave for just one moment. Speaking of CNN and what washes over you, man, I actually met the guy, and, like, I think he's DM'd me, and I don't have, like, a negative relationship with him, but I think what he does is some of the most disingenuous stuff on television. It's CNN's, I guess he's now rehired, Chief Media Critic, Brian Stelter.

Here he is on CNN. And Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, who on Friday was tweeting about the fake jobs report, sowing doubt about the government statistics. Today, he is imploring his constituents to believe the government forecasts, to take the government information seriously, to believe the government data.

What a difference three days makes from Marco Rubio? And he's supposed to be one of the more responsible ones. I think that's ultimately what's so frustrating here, Caitlin, as we see these government forecasters and these broadcast meteorologists trying to save lives. So let me see if I understand

this convoluted and nonsensical, irrational point. So Marco Rubio is imploring the residents of Florida as Hurricane Milton is bearing down on them this week. It's now made landfall to listen to FEMA, listen to local authorities, listen to what they're being told. Stelter notices that just a week or so ago, Marco Rubio points out that he doesn't trust government data when it comes to unemployment. And Stelter sees hypocrisy. Oh, trust government data here. don't trust government sources there.

And Stelter and his faux concern trolling really says, and that's just interesting, isn't it? Isn't it problematic? So here's the question. If you believe one government agency, are you supposed to believe them all? If you believe one politician, are you supposed to believe them all? If you believe one scientist, are you supposed to believe them all?

If you believe one commentator, are you supposed to believe them all? If you believe one media enterprise, are you supposed to believe them all? I mean, the United States federal government is just, gigantic multitudes of bureaucracies and departments. So if you think Marco Rubio saying you should listen to hurricane officials is hypocritical, what do you do with this, Stelter? How about that the BLS, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, has had to revise, I believe,

I believe this is correct, 11 of the last 12 jobs reports, and I believe 10 of the 11 revised down. So they come out with the jobs numbers. Everybody runs with the headlines, economy doing great, added this number of jobs. And then a month or two passes down the road, and they go back and they revise the numbers, almost inevitably, not always, because one just recently, I believe it was August or September got revised up, but I mean nine out of 10 revised down. So we didn't add as many jobs as we were supposed to. So if you don't believe the initial data. And by the way, even if they're revised up, that suggests the initial data is not accurate. So now we're like 11 for 11, right? On

Unemployment claims and jobs data have to be revised because it's an inexact science not unlike by the way weather and oh by the way climate in exact science if you question the initial reporting of the BLS and unemployment then you're not then then you're not allowed to say trust the hurricane forecasters This is just this just complete boobification of media That honestly washes over you see that? I'm going to bring the weave back in, weaving back to the original point. Got to have a memory. And like Donald Trump said, you just got to be sharp or you'll get crushed.

Luckily, we're bringing you memory and not a dull blade. So weaving back, this is the kind of stuff that washes over you and was washing over me for years, you know, when it comes to Donald Trump. Because you're played clips, you're played out of context stuff, and you're told. and you really are told in echoes. It's like hearsay in a courtroom. I heard so-and-so say, but it's always said with authority.

So Donald Trump called Nazis and white supremacists very fine people. And then that's repeated ad nauseum. And then you might even see a clip. You're like, I've seen it. I've seen the video. But you didn't see the full clip. You didn't see the sentence afterward

where he says, I'm not talking about white supremacists and Nazis. You're told he said, it's going to be a bloodbath if I'm not elected, but you're not put into context that he's talking about an economic bloodbath in the auto industry, but none of that

context, none that depth washes over you, just the, just the repetition and the echo of the initial claim. And Donald Trump brought up another one is my point. I'm plugged in now. You know, nothing's just washing over me. And partially, I never cared because I didn't believe it. Like, I just dismiss it now. But the idea that Donald Trump said, you only have to vote for me once has been evidence in the echoes and the reverberations from places like CNN that he wants to be a dictator one last election just vote for me once and you'll never have to vote again right you've heard that evidence that he's a would-be dictator well that came up talking to Andrew shultz and flagrant here's Trump rumor the far left I think says this thing that oh if Donald Trump

wins he's never going to seed power then they have some clip of you saying just vote for me one time you won't have to vote again. I don't believe this is true. I want to give you a chance to publicly say that's nonsense just so you can publicly speak any moderates out there. So what I said, yeah, Christians tend to vote at a very low percentage for some reason. And so do gun owners. Would you believe it? The NRA gun owners tend not to vote. Maybe it's a rebellious thing. I don't know. Maybe. I said, look, our country's in big trouble, really big trouble with the border with all the problems. We can solve the problem. But vote this one time after that. we're not going to need it to this is the most important election in the history of our country

vote for this most important election and then if you don't want to vote we're going to have elections but you don't have to vote because it's going to go along swimming so he gives you context who he was talking to and him saying hey this is super important election just vote this one time has turned into you only have to vote one more time because we're going to cancel elections and be a dictator and that's the kind of thing that honestly you wouldn't know if you just let everything wash over you for whatever reason what breaks through is the nonsense from the likes of brian stelter and that washes over you and then there is your understanding at a deeper level of what he is saying not i mean just also

there's common sense which one passes the smell test just like if you are how about this if you're in respectable company you're trying to make a point which one passes the common sense test Donald Trump is saying, vote once and we'll have no more elections, or, hey, this is the most important election. If you're ever going to vote, now is the time. Vote once. I'm probably bearing literally our headline in the headline. He was natural.

He was funny. He was authentic. He was charming and he was endearing. It's just a fact. I'll just say this. Two days, I don't actually know your politics. I don't know left. I don't know right.

I know you're probably not the biggest. Donald Trump fan. You watched it, and you came away. Huh, pretty likable, Donald Trump. Yeah, I mean, he came off as a dude. It was the first time I saw him, like, really smile like that, which makes him, you know, more human and more likable. Because he's always serious and saying these, you know, wild, outlandish things, and he's not smiling, he's frowning. This was, plus I love comedians, too, so it helped me personally to relate to him. But, yeah, I mean, it was the closest I've come, probably, yeah. Well, the wild outlandish claims, okay, he's definitely, definitely guilty of hyperbole,

but most wild outlandish claims ends up grounded in something that people use hyperbole as an excuse not to find the something that it's grounded in. And I totally agree with you about the smile. Like the smile is important, and what a great venue to reveal the smile. And this was perhaps maybe, I love the weave, but this is what most people are saying is one of the funniest moments when he starts getting into his nicknames. Donald Trump, I'm good with names, you know. You are. You're very good at them.

Pocahontas. We have names. And there was, Tampon, Tim, was good. What about, is that? With Tampon, Tim, it's hard to say. Yeah. In other words, it's a mouthful. It's a lot.

And you can't stutter it through when you fall. It's really a lousy word to say. Yeah. But it's quite accurate, right? There are some, like, comrade, Kamala. It's a little hard to say. She's a comrade because she's obviously a communist. She's horrible. So I

call a comrade. And it's not bad. But when you put the names together, it's a little you've got to be able to pume. No, you've got to be able to put it out there. You've got to be able to pung.

I'm telling you he's in on his own joke i'm telling you uh they even go into it in the podcast like where does your sense of humor come from there's like a whole theory about whether or not it comes from scotland because schultz's mom is scottish trump's mother is scottish is there something in the scottish humor uh and he goes into that by the way you totally get what he's into he he is into good genes he's into that kind of thing like you have good genes you know you come from there here he's totally into that uh honestly he's just a throwback like this is my father and talking you know this is a lot of people that you know who is but he's in on his joke and he is

funny and it was really really if you want to see another side okay if you don't want to see the side that just washes over you I do encourage you head over there watch Donald Trump with Andrew Schultz on flagrant let's hear how it's all playing on the road let's go on the road on the wheel can show next with David Marcus in Pennsylvania from the Fox News Podcasts Network. Hey there, it's me, Kennedy. Make sure to check out my podcast. Kennedy saves the world.

It is five days a week, every week. Download and listen at Fox Newspodcast.com or wherever you listen to your favorite podcast. I'm Janice Dean. Join me every Sunday as I focus on stories of hope and people who are truly rays of sunshine in their community and across the world. Listen and follow now at Fox News Podcast.com. Welcome back to the Wilcane Show streaming live at Fox News.com on the Fox News YouTube channel and the Fox News Facebook page. Hit subscribe at Apple or Spotify. You can get the Will Cane Show on podcast whenever and however you like.

Hit subscribe here on YouTube, jump into the comment section or on Facebook. We bring you into the show like Jim Dan. who says the weave is good when an interviewer asks questions that they already have decided the answer. I'm not sure I fully understand that criticism. I'm not sure I fully understand that. When the interviewer asks questions that they have already decided the answer,

is he talking about the interviewer's already decided the answer or the politician or the interviewee has already decided the answer? I don't know that that to be true. I mean, maybe you know the answer by the end of the question. Oh, I know I'm going to answer this. So I'm going to begin the process. Oh, and then I'm going to indulge this little story or this parenthetical,

and I'll ultimately get back around to the answer. But do you want someone who doesn't know the way their sentence is going to end by the time they begin the sentence? That's like the joke that Schultz made. Like if you just weave, then you're Biden. How's this going? How is this going for Donald Trump? How is this going for Kamala Harris and what looks like a media blitz that, again,

subjective interpretation, doesn't seem to be going that well. what does it mean for the polls and then therefore what does it mean for the electoral map let's check in let's get some reality let's get beyond our subjective viewpoint and see if we can get some insight into the crystal ball with the director of the fox news decision desk arnon michigan here on the will ken show hey arnon hi will how are you i'm good i'm glad to have you on the show so on election night you're there you're at the decision desk you're looking at returns you're telling us at what an election goes a certain way. How capable of, are you already, depending upon either polling or even what we know about registrations and early balloting, how capable of you of putting

your finger on the pulse of Harris versus Trump now? I'm fully capable of putting my finger on the pulse of the Harris Trump race. If you want me to tell you what that pulse shows, I will refer to your friend Jim Dandy, who said the interviewer knows the answer. So what story do you want me to spin? And I can spin that story based on the poll numbers we're seeing. Because basically, if you want me to tell you that Donald Trump is actually underestimated in the polls and I can see it in the polls, why he is underestimated, it's there in the numbers. And you can see that's, you know, you can see the dot, you can connect some dots to say that. If you want me to say that the bottom is going to fall out of Trump and it's going to be an easy night. That's also in the polls. You can see some dots

which connect to that story. In terms of what the actual result is going to be, that's really about as clear as mud, as they say, based on all the polls. Because most of the polls show a really close race. Donald Trump has been at 48 to 50 percent of the vote in the national polls all year long. And, you know, back when Joe Biden was appearing to be a little too elderly, and I said, you know, Trump's at 48. People said, you're spinning for Biden when you're saying is stronger than you realize. And now when Kamala Harris has consolidated some of that Democratic vote and looks like she's probably going to win the popular vote, but it doesn't matter. Because if at 48% or 47 percent, Trump is easily capable of winning the electoral college, particularly given

some of the polls we've seen from states. So it's getting back to Jim, Dandy's point, you tell me the story you want me to spin. I can connect the dots for you. I don't want you to spin a story. I don't have an answer that I want as I asked the question. I just want reality. And so the best way to do that is the best way to do that is to explore, I think, both of those hypotheticals that you just laid out for it.

So I'm going to start out with the negative one for Donald Trump. You said there is stuff in there that if you wanted to make the argument, the bottom will fall out for Donald Trump, that you could make that argument. What does that mean, though, the bottom fall out for Donald Trump? Well, from a polling perspective, I mean, one of the things that's been weird in a lot of the polls we've seen, a lot of them, but not all of them, but a lot of them, you know, in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump got about 46, 47 percent of the vote, but he won the electoral. college in 2016. And let's face it, almost won in 2020. I mean, don't kid yourself. Even though he lost the popular vote dramatically, he came within 30,000 votes of getting 270 electoral college votes. So he came really close. And what we saw in both 2020 and 2016 was that Donald Trump did a lot better. The Democrats wasted a whole lot of vote in California and New York, which they

won by like 10 points or more. I think that they won the margin in California was about 7 million. The margin in New York was about 5 million. Guess what? In order to get all the electoral college votes, you only need to win by one vote or 540 in Florida in 2000. So when you win by 4,000 votes or 5,000 votes, your get-out-the-vote effort was a little overwrought. You should have moved some of those people elsewhere. This year, you're seeing some evidence that that electoral college advantage that Trump got in 2016 and 2020 is not as great as it was. And so the statewide polling is not that much better for Trump than his national number. And that's probably bad news for Trump, difficult news for Trump.

And we saw yesterday the New York Times had a poll, which I don't fully, you know, it's a bit of an outlier, which has Trump winning Florida by 55% of the vote with 55% of the vote. Let me tell you, Trump's going to probably win Florida. I don't think he'll win by 55%, with 55%. But if he does get 55%, it means the Republicans are wasting vote this time. So that's what I mean by the bottom falling out from Trump. What do you make of Trump spending time? I just read this this morning, that he's going to spend time in California, Illinois, New York.

Now, time is capital in politics. It's currency. It's a zero-sum game. If I'm spending time in California, I'm not spending it in Wisconsin. As you point out, California, what are you doing there? That's an unwinnable state. That's permanently Democrat. So what do you make of Trump going to some states that you would think he has no chance in,

like California, New York, and Illinois? In New York, it makes local sense. It doesn't make local sense for Trump to spend time in California. I think he's also spending time in Colorado in that city that appears to have been, has a significant immigrant issue. In New York, it makes a certain amount of sense because the House of Representatives, many of the battleground districts are in New York state. And so spending time in New York can be really helpful down ballot for the Republicans.

So I think that makes local sense. I think what does make sense for Trump in terms of California and especially Colorado is you can make an issue, you know, you can focus on a national issue. There's obviously a national issue of immigration. And so going into Colorado into the location of this national issue is an opportunity for him to make that an issue. And, you know, Internet and the communication is such nowadays that just because you're in Colorado, it doesn't mean people aren't seeing that in the key states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. So I think that's the mechanism. And in California, it's also, he probably is going to do some fundraisers.

Because there are Republicans who live there and there are rich Republicans who live there. So it's a good place for a Republican candidate to pick up some dough. So fundraising in California, Colorado is in essence a stage for a larger audience than just Colorado. Very well put, you've made the negative case for Donald Trump. Now let me rebut with the positive case and see what you have to say. So I've just pulled up while we've been talking real clear politics polling average, right? I don't know, Arnden, which one you trust. I don't, you're the expert on polling.

All I can do is read. By the way, I don't know. How do you feel, before we get into this, how do you feel about the betting markets? Do you find the betting markets any kind of reliable indicator? because the betting markets just even the last couple of days have moved in Donald Trump's favor. I believe they're currently sitting in Polly Market at 5347. That's close. I mean, I don't, I mean, on an issue like presidential politics, it's a measure of the wisdom of the crowd, which is important and is valuable.

But it's also when you deal with politics, it's also a measure of enthusiasm. And yes, Kamala Harris has done a better job than Joe Biden. did about generating enthusiasm, but no one in my professional history has ever done as good a job of generating enthusiasm as Donald J. Trump. And so I think that sometimes that enthusiasm translates into, I'm going to place a bet on him on the polymarket. So I would be a little skeptical, but polling averages, I tend to trust. Okay, so we have real clear politics, polling averages, and it's state by state, which is all the matters. Like, you know, the national polling, who cares?

The popular vote, okay, who cares? We're talking about the run for president here, not popularity. So in the run for president, you've got to win states. And real clear politics, this is what I find fascinating right now. Wherever we stand, and it's incredibly close, Wisconsin, favor for Harris at just less than one percentage point, Pennsylvania, Trump, point two. Ohio, eight points for Trump, Michigan, half a point for Harris, wherever we stand on all these battleground states, right?

The fascinating thing to point out is where we stood in 2020 and where we stood in 2016. And in both cases, Biden and Clinton, whether or not they were up or down, the margin was much bigger, meaning Biden had a bigger lead than Harris does today. And Biden had a bigger lead than Clinton in 2016. I believe in many of these states, although it's back and forth. But both of them, Clinton or Biden, but Biden, way bigger than Kamala Harris. Yeah. Well, no, that's right.

I mean, I think that, sorry. I think that, you know, after 2016 and after 2020, Donald Trump clearly outperformed the expectations the pollsters had for how he would do. And in both cases, you had this notion that was floated, the notion of a shy Trump voter, which I think is true. I particularly thought it was true in 2016 because I always said, look at Clinton's number. Her number, you know, Donald Trump's had all this bad press. We had the Access Hollywood tape and all that other stuff.

And Clinton's number didn't budge. And so I said all these people, her lead is not growing. A lot of people are leaving Trump, but guess what? They're going to get back. And I think that it suggested to me that a lot of the undecided voters were Trump voters. So as I said, all year long, when I'd look at Trump's number, I'd say a lot of these undecided voters are Biden voters. And we've seen that in terms of how Harris has sort of gotten a lot of them.

They just immediately said, oh, a young person, fine. A young Democrat I'm for. But now I think you're absolutely right. There is a lot of those undecideds could be Trump voters, and particularly because, you know, you're seeing Trump getting a little bit below where he was. He was at 48. Now he's some of these polls nationally, 47, 46. And a part of me thinks, I'm not sure they're, they've really left Trump.

I think they're going to come back home and we'll find out. But I think that that you have to expect, you know, that there may be some shy Trump voters. But I also think the other thing you have to expect is that one, One of Trump's truly great tools is his ability to generate the turnout, and he has done better than most any Republican in my professional career to really get sort of voters who don't traditionally vote to vote for Trump, and more important, to get to the polls on Election Day, even in the face of media saying, there's no way this guy can win. All right, two more things with you.

So you and I are largely talking about polling here, but what about, what are you seeing that is useful for us at this point? I see people talking about registered voters, you know, the Republicans have done better than they have in a long time and getting voters registered. I don't know what you can already know about early voting, Arnon. Is there anything that you can know at this stage? Like, beyond polling, actual actionable things that, that, that, affects this election, which has already begun. The election has begun. It's not election day

anymore. It's election months. So the stats on, I did it on Fox and Friends. I can't remember the percentage. I'm sure you know off the top of your head, but the percentage of the vote now that is not in person, that is either early or mail-in is huge. It was 60% in 22 in 20. It would probably go down a bit because of the pandemic, because there's no more pandemic. But it's, it is huge. It's probably, assume 50%. And I think the one of the things I'm seeing in those numbers, which is, which I think is interesting, but you need to factor in. In 2020, Trump was telling Republicans, do not vote early, do not vote by mail, vote on election day. I believe that was a tactical error.

And I think that had he gotten that arguably, again, he only lost by 30,000 votes in the electoral college. Had he been pushing people to vote by mail, I bet you'd have gotten a lot of those done that 30,000. They're pushing this time to get Republicans to vote any way they want, you know, swamp the ballot. Swamp the polls or whatever. And I think that when I look at the numbers of the – you know the – in some states, you know how a voter is registered. You don't know how they're going to – how they voted in the way the mail ballots are cast. But, you know, you get two envelopes. The first envelope says, I am Will Kane, and this is my secret ballot, and you're checked-old.

off Will Kane has voted. And so when you look at those numbers, they're doing a much better job than they did in 2020 of getting the mail-in vote in. But how many of those people, how much of that mean that there's a real lead or a real benefit or how much of that is just people are now voting by mail or early and before they would have voted, they would have voted on election day. That's where we'll find out on election night. Right. Which you'll be busy on election night. What if you're going to be so busy that you couldn't hop over to a Wilcane show live stream on YouTube. We'll have to find that out after the show on it. I'll respect your schedule. Thank you. Last question on polling. Last question on polling. There's a lag. We don't

know right away. And I am, I do mean this, and I've talked to my eyes, I am humble about just because I see something one way, or my internet algorithm is suggesting to me that other people see it my way doesn't mean it's the way it's being seen by the broader public. It seems like the broad media blitz by Kamala Harris this week has not gone incredibly well. When would we know the truth behind that in terms of polling? Like how quickly would we come back and see how people are, without a doubt, a change in strategy and a lot more exposure, starting basically on Sunday through this week. When do we find out if that was good exposure or bad exposure for Kamala Harris? I think you find out a week later. You could figure out if the exposure has helped at all.

And it's not just in terms of looking at the vote count, but it's questions about you ask descriptions. And to what extent to people think Kamala Harris is ready to be president or not ready to be president? And to the extent that people think that she's less ready to be president now, that means the media blitz didn't work. And to the extent that more people say, actually, I could see her in the White House, it means the media blitz has kind of worked. But that'll take about a week. Actually, I have one more question for you. Sure. Because I know, I know that people would want to know this from you.

And I know that everybody wonders this on election night. Can you help everyone understand as they're watching television and the polls close how you're capable of calling a state? Or when you're watching television and it says 1% reporting, right? But yet at the same time, not just you, CNN, or email says we can project a winner. I do know if I'm out in the world and I'm talking to people, they're always mystified by that. By the way, I understand the concept of the sample size, right? What a sample size means for a larger projection? And that may be your answer.

But I think it's worth hearing your answer. How can you take a sampling of votes that have come in and say, this is going to be what happens in this particular state? Well, there are two major ingredients into our calls. The first is what we call the Fox News voter analysis, which is a poll. We are going to be interviewing 120,000 people in the days leading up to the election and on election day, where we find out how they have already voted or how they intend to vote. And the second ingredient is the actual results. And so the reason you can make a call, and the third ingredient is sort of what we know about the state.

So I'm sure you'll be surprised to find out that I believe the District of Columbia is going to vote for Kamala Harris. and I believe the state of Idaho is probably going to vote for Donald Trump. But if you see, what? You're calling those. Now, I'm not calling them. You're calling those today. No, but I'm saying, let's be real here. And so if you see an area of the state, you have looking at a vote of an area of a state

that is really democratic area, and you're seeing, guess what, Kamala Harris is not doing well here. In fact, Trump is beating her here. That's an indication that if it's consistent with the other. data you're seeing that makes, enables you to make a call, which is, and that's why we're able to sometimes make calls with just 1% of the vote in. But typically it's not in a district of Columbia or Idaho. Arnon, do you think we'll know the president of the United States on November 4th, on election night? How, how, when do you think this election will be called? Based on everything I've looked at right now, I'd say the over under is Saturday. It'll take a few days because

of the way, you know, a lot of the states were really slow counting in 2020. And the most important states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they haven't really changed their counting process, particularly Pennsylvania, where they don't even, you know, they don't really start touching the mail-in vote until the polls close on election night. And it takes a while to go through that stuff. Why do they not touch it until then? Why do they wait until election day start opening and counting mail-in? Your guess is as good as mine. I think historically, with absentee ballots, you didn't want to open the ballot. You don't want to open the ballot before election day, because if someone has voted, you don't want to tell the insiders, if you will, guess what,

candidate X is ahead, and therefore candidate Y needs to go and get ad votes. So there was a good government element to it. But the reality is with the growth of absentee ballots and mail-in-voting, the extreme growth, which is not just with COVID, but forever, it's been growing, that there should be, it is much better as states like Florida do it, where they, even before election day, they look at the mail-in vote, they check off, Will Kane has voted, and they put, they don't open the envelope until election night, but they have processed the ballot and realized Will Kane has voted. He can't, he's cast his vote, Arna and Michigan has voted, and they do that processing. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, don't do that. And so, and yes,

it would be much better if all states followed that rule. So you're over under is Saturday. Yeah, I guess I said that. Four days or so after the time. I'll probably pay for that over under at some point. Wow. All right. Fox News, Decision Desicin, Michigan. We appreciate your time. Thank you so much being on the Will Cain show. Thank you very much, Will. It's great to see you. You too. All right, we've got more of your comments here from YouTube and Facebook. Plus, now that we've heard what's behind the data and the numbers, let's go on the ground and talk to the people. David Marcus, Fox News columnist, is on the ground in Pennsylvania. Next on the Will Cain Show.

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on the Fox News Facebook page. Hit subscribe at Apple, Spotify, or on YouTube or on Facebook. Jump into the comments. Come a member of the Willisha. Two days, there's a debate breaking out, right? Here today on the Will Cain show. Yeah. The live chat is raucous.

What are they saying? So there's a debate whether Andrew Schultz and the comedians were laughing at Trump or with Trump in this interview with him, which seems ridiculous. Really? Yeah. There's some people... You sent me an example of that. Quasi Mentor says they were laughing at Trump, not with Trump, over on YouTube. I did not sense that whatsoever.

No, it's not true. Whatsoever. I don't know if you watched it. Kawasi, maybe you should watch the entirety. Kawasi, but they were not laughing at Trump. I mean, that's just... That's not, I don't even think that, forget partisan, that's not subjective. I mean, that's subjective ability to read human beings.

It makes me worry about you, Kwasi, and the way you walk through the world and interact with other human beings. Your inability to discern whether or not they're with you or against you laughing at you or laughing with you is really concerning. I'm worried about you at the bar, my man, because this is a bunch of dudes laughing with Donald Trump, objectively. By the way, Johnny Johnny says he's running for president of the United States, not just red states. yeah true thank you johnny johnny uh horay says will cane has classic deranged trump derangement syndrome what does that mean does that mean i am anti-trump is the accusation i'm anti-trump apparently i don't know i don't yeah i mean i wanted you to church you what's meant by trump derangement syndrome yeah i didn't get that one i wanted you to kind of work through that

because I didn't understand it. Super Ramen writer says you guys better take a break from hate. It's not good for your souls. No, we're just... Stop hating, man. Really lacking in joy over here. We need more fake laughter, less real laughter, so that we can project more joy.

All my laughter is fake, so don't worry about it. I got to work on my cackle so that everybody will think I'm joyous. Like this one? Water says Brian is only back talking about stilter because they are in a panic and who can we get to trash talk is what they are thinking. Talking about Brian Stelter over on CNN. I mean, comeback player of the year, Brian Stelter. We should give awards, you know.

Pired, brought back. Before Don Lemon or Chris Cuomo, comeback player of the year, Brian Stelter on CNN. David Marcus, Fox News columnist is on the road, following reports from America talking to folks out there, and he is either now or has been. spending time this week in Pennsylvania. What's up, David?

Hey, Will, how you doing, man? Yeah, I pulled into my driveway about 20 minutes ago, woke up in Bedford, Pennsylvania this morning. Sometimes it's a little confusing. I'm not exactly sure where I am when I wake up, but Bedford's very lovely. And I talk to a lot of very interesting people, Democrats and Republicans.

And we're here, man. People are excited about it on both sides. People are talking about it. You know, I will say the Democrats that I spoke to, they're still, they still don't know who Harris is. They're voting for her. But there's not a level of excitement. And so that's something that sort of jumped out over the past week or so. And maybe that's what that media blitz was meant to create. At least as of last night, I hadn't seen any results from that. I've been struggling with this ever since you started making your weekly appearance. on the Will Cane show, like, who do you remind me of?

And I think the cable-knit sweater today is what did it for me. You are someone out of St. Elmo's fire. You are, like, vintage, who is in that movie? Who's in the Brat Pack? Oh, I think you're Judd Nelson. I think that's who you are, right? I think, is that the look you're going for? I don't have the long hair.

Anything you want to put him in. Billionaire Boys Club, wasn't he in that? I thought you were going to say the Clancy brothers with the sweater, but it was chilly in Bedford. And then, yeah, I was in Butler over the weekend for Trump's rally, but then also just sort of in Butler. And, you know, one of the things about Pennsylvania that I've sort of realized, and I've been there a lot recently, Pennsylvania is not Ohio or Indiana. These towns are doing okay. I don't think that the vote is quite as much about economic anxiety. in PA as it is more broadly

about the direction of the country and that's that's sort of a different vibe both Butler and Bedford lovely you know they got the fancy little bars where they put the smoke in your cocktail and they infuse everything with like elderberry or whatever

a lot of people buy in houses so you know these places that are going to decide the election they seem to be doing all right the one concern I have for Trump is I don't see a lot of ground game. And I was thinking when I was in Butler, one of the things I wrote about was there was so many, I don't know, pick your number, whatever. I was on the ground. I couldn't tell 20,000, 40,000, whatever there was in Butler, right? It took me an hour to park. He says a hundred.

What's that? Yeah, I don't know what it is. But he says 100. Whatever it was. But it was a lot of people, right? It took me an hour to park because everybody drove. What I didn't see were the buses, right, that you see at Kamala Harris events, where the people in the matching t-shirts from the teacher's union come out and, you know, all cheer on Harris. And that kind of cuts both ways because on the one hand, you say, oh, good, like Trump's support is organic and the Harris support is Astridorv. But the other way that cuts is those buses full of women and matching t-shirts,

that is exactly the same machinery as a get out the boat effort. That is exactly the same machinery as knocking on doors and making phone calls and doing all of those things that aren't TV ads and that aren't earned, you know, spots. So that's, look, Democrats always have an edge here. To me, that's the wild card that's left. You posted a video where you spoke to, I believe this was in Pennsylvania, but this is a farmer. It was pretty fascinating. We've got to see a little bit of your interviews talking to regular Americans about the issues that matter. Here is what was posted on your ex-feed, David Marcus. Agriculture is more important than people think.

agriculture is the cornerstone of this country. We have won wars because of agriculture. Poland starved. We have multiple, multiple farmers around here. Small guys have been squeezed out. We have trade deals that are bad. We have mega farming. We have Bill Gates.

We have Chinese that are buying up everything. We have farmers that are being paid not to farm their property. Why is that? that's a problem that's a major problem and then the other subsidy and the other flip side of it is they want to make these farms now solar fields yeah that's that's actually that's really fascinating and look the paying farmers not to farm has been a story in america since i believe like the 1920s or 30s um but uh what so you there we go we get to hear your interview directly from a farmer in pennsylvania what does that mean in the end? Like, what does he want?

Look, I think what he wants is a pretty long list that basically boils down to sort of competent leadership. He is a Trump supporter. I think that in particular, he likes Trump's attitude towards trade and his attitude towards sort of protecting American businesses and trying to protect American farms. But, you know, yeah, this guy was interesting. because this has actually never happened before, but like, this guy, like, sought me out. Like, like, I was at the sort of, like, local place in Bedford where, like, everybody goes. It's actually called the Village News, and it used to be a newsstand, and now it's sort of a restaurant and bar,

and it's a place where everyone goes. So I guess somebody had told him that I was there, you know, someone from Fox Digital as a columnist and he came and sought me out because he really thinks this is important. I mean, last week we talked about the farmers in Maryland where the eminent domain is, going to run power lines across their property. And they just feel like nobody cares. I mean, that nobody's listening and nobody cares. So, you know, that's really what Donald Trump taps into.

And look, they're not sure he's able to fix the problem. I spoke to a couple of people who were just like, I don't think anybody can fix the problem. But they at least think he's listening. Right, right. That's interesting. That's really interesting. Okay. So having been on the ground so much in Pennsylvania,

I mean, what do you think? I'm not going to say, make your prediction, David Marcus, but like, you know, what do you think? It's the all-important state. What do you think about Pennsylvania? Yeah, no, I'm not making a prediction because in 2020, Molly Hemingway still has not forgiven me. She was my editor at the Federalist,

and she sent Chris Bedford and I to PA. I think it was the night before the election. I went on Laura Ingram's show and uttered the words, I don't see how Trump can lose Pennsylvania. And that was when we were doing it at the little studio vans, right? I was in Brooklyn and, like, I stepped out of the studio vat and looked at my phone, and it was Molly being like, what did you just do? Like, why did you just jinx us?

And sure enough, I had. So I'm not making that mistake again. Look, I do. It's what I said. I think it comes down to ground game. And that ties back to not getting the Teamsters endorsement, right? That ties back to Harris's struggles with labor. Because labor is really good at this.

This is what they do. Labor organizes. They're able to get those people out on the ground, get votes out and do, you know, do those things. So I think that's what it comes down to on Harris's side. And the two groups that I'm really looking at in terms of Trump's side is his support with Gen Z and with labor. Those are the two. And Gen Z, I really see. I was really slow to believe that for various reasons.

and I really, I still can't quite explain it, but there's a lot of 20s. There's a lot of support among 20-somethings, much more than millennials. I mean, the polls show it too. Because, like, millennials are a bunch of sad sacks, you know, like, I say that as a Gen Xer, like they don't see much hope in the world. And these Gen Zers do. Interesting. Very, very interesting.

And, of course, the Teamsters point, you're making cuts both ways. They didn't endorse Kamala. She doesn't get their ground game. They didn't do what they should have done, which is endorsed Trump and thus not give him the ground game as well. All right, David Marcus from Pennsylvania, always appreciate you giving us, you know, what you're hearing and seeing from the ground this election. Check him out, by the way, at foxgues.com where he's filing reports. All right, take a nap, Dave. Thank you.

Thanks, buddy. All right, that's going to do it for us today here on the Will Kane show. Just seeing, they were left. So our boy tinfoil pat, by the way, says they were laughing at Donald Trump at times, but mostly with him. Schultz laughed at him. I want to see that clip. Maybe I can do that when we come back and see you again next time on Monday. Amazon Prime members, you can listen to this show, ad-free, on the Amazon music app.

Hey, I'm Trey Gowdy host of the Trey Gatti podcast. I hope you will join me every Tuesday and Thursday as we navigate life together and hopefully find ourselves a little bit better on the other side. Listen and follow now at Fox Newspodcast.com.