Will Cain Country - Todd McShay: Your 2025 NFL Draft Guide

Episode Date: April 18, 2025

On this special NFL draft edition of The Will Cain Show, Will sits down with longtime ESPN Draft Analyst and new host of The McShay Show on The Ringer, Todd McShay.  They dive deep into this year��s draft, from the positions that run dry fast to why character now trumps talent in scouting rooms. McShay breaks down the best late-round sleepers, shares inside stories from his 25-year career, and explains how NFL teams now use FBI agents, psychologists, and even Madden ratings to build their boards. Tell Will what you thought about this podcast by emailing [e-mail]   Subscribe to The Will Cain Show on YouTube here: Watch The Will Cain Show! Follow Will on Twitter: @WillCain Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For a limited time at McDonald's, enjoy the tasty breakfast trio. Your choice of chicken or sausage McMuffin or McGrittles with a hash brown and a small iced coffee for $5. Plus tax. Available until 11 a.m. at participating McDonald's restaurants. Price excludes flavored iced coffee and delivery. NFL draft, everything you ever. wanted to know from the host of the McShay show, Todd McShay. It's the Will Kane Show, normally streaming live every Monday through Thursday at 12 o'clock

Eastern time. Always available at Spotify or on Apple by subscribing, which of course you do and you know because you're listening to this episode of Canaan Sports. I'm sorry, complete nerd out on the NFL draft. I love it. I'm going to talk about names you probably never heard. If you have, you're going to hear interesting things because we have as our guest, Todd McShay, old friend from ESPN.

He gave me way more time than I asked for, probably wore him out for an hour, talking about all of my curiosities, all the questions about who's going to go where, who's undervalued, second, third, fourth round. I love it, and so I got the right guy to go deep. He's got a new show up at the Ringer. He's going to stream live during the draft all three days. You make sure I will to pull him up on one of your screens while you're taking in the draft. Here is The Ringer's host of the McShea show, Todd McShay.

Following Fox's initial donation to the Kerr County, Flood Relief Fund, our generous viewers have answered the call to action across all Fox platforms and have helped raise $6.5 million. Visit go.com forward slash TX flood relief to support relief and rebuilding efforts. Hey, I'm Trey Gowdy host of the Tray Gotti podcast. I hope you will join me every Tuesday and Thursday as we navigate life together and hopefully find ourselves a little bit better on the other side. Listen and follow now at foxnewspodcast.com. My old friend Todd McShay. Now with the Ringer, host of the McKay Show. Let me do that again. One, two, three. My old friend Todd McShay, host of the McShay show on the ringer, you got to check him out. All year

around when it comes to the NFL draft, I know that I do. And it's good to see you again, man. What's up, Todd? It's good to see you, man. A friendly face. It's been a minute. It's been a lot of time together in Bristol. And now here we are. So it's good to see you, bud it's good to see it's good to see the richmond spider helmet behind you and to see you doing NFL draft coverage where you belong where everybody wants to hear you and your expertise um i don't know if this is fun or a stressful time of year for you but i absolutely love it i do it's really my guilty pleasure i'll play on a mock draft simulator every day mcshay and i just the stress is over now the NFL draft it was a nightmare up to like the you know first week in

April, getting all the reports done and make sure I got everything lined up. But now it's like the hay is in the barn, as everyone says. And now it's just, you know, doing a bunch of shows and trying to talk to people in the league and figure out where these guys are going to go. Hey, tell me a little bit about the process, talking to people in the league, talking to GMs, talking to scouts about who they like and what they like. I mean, you also played college football. You have your own opinions on what fits a system or what traits a guy might have.

How much tape would you say that you watch? Do you also go into these guys' college tape, try to watch three or four games of at least the first round? Just what goes into the process of telling me who's going to make it and who's not going to make it and where they'll be picked? I actually start with like a top 100 list to get ahead in May. Like the draft will be over. I'll take a week and then just start chipping away guys. And so it's a year-long process of watching tape. And then you kind of narrow it down, you know, it's about like 1,200 prospects, right, in the beginning.

And then I'll start with just a small few. Then, like, the combine list comes out in January so you can kind of get a good indicator. But the tape is, like, I spend the most time on tape, like January, February, and trying to finish it up and obviously have a good foundation from the year before. But as the season starts, more tape comes in. The biggest difference, man, honestly, like when I first started in this gig, we had to call NFL teams and get those, what was, like the big beta drives or whatever it was, like these huge, think of a VHS cassette if you're not and then but it was like this big beta max yes beta max okay then it went to

VHS then it went to DVDs that was huge you know you could actually like fast forward rewind better and then it we got like exos and catapult and all that and so now like literally like three or four hours after a game I can go into this big iPad I have over here and it went for I can watch game to game to game and then in the last several years with like the PFF ultimate pro football focus ultimate merging with all that tape you can tell like pick a player in this draft right any player go ahead give me you want me to pick one tray harris tray harris trade harris right receiver only so tray harris not only can i i can watch the individual games i can watch him on routes from one to 10 yards i can watch him on third downs i can watch his like key

plays it's called like the point of contract so any anytime there's a drop anytime there's a catch anytime that he's involved in blocking. So it has totally changed the landscape. So you get done with all your evaluations. And then the fun part is talking to GMs and friends in the league, right? Because I may think one thing of a player. And you have these respectful conversations. You talk it through.

Yeah, I see it a little differently. Or, yeah, I understand why you like him from a global perspective, but from a perspective of what we're looking for and how he fits our scheme. we're not quite as high on them. So, and then everyone wants to trade information now. The, the boards are being set this week if they're not already set, okay? And now everyone's trying to figure out doing their own mock drafts and their own draft rooms, trying to figure out where guys are going.

And ultimately, that's how you start to kind of peddle information back and forth and get a stronger sense of where these guys could go come draft night. If all of this information is available, McShay, information should lead to more accuracy. Why do we still sit at about a 50% bus to success rate when it comes to the first round of the NFL draft, much less the rest of the entirety of the draft? Unless I am wrong, it doesn't seem to have helped improve the accuracy of predictions of who will make it and who will not make it in the NFL?

I hear you. I would say we're starting to see an uptick in it. We go back to last year's class, six quarterbacks in the first 12 picks, right? J.J. McCarthy didn't play because of injury, but the other five guys, you feel really good about where the trajectory is. And with Caleb, obviously, he didn't have the great year. But now the supporting cast is coming. Ben Johnson's coming as the new head coach, he's offensive genius, three new offensive linemen and free agency. So I'm not saying it's perfect.

I think it's getting better. I do think, and it's been interesting throughout my career, like 25 years doing this, right? Early on in my career, talking to scouts who are out, you know, out four months away from their family, grinding out from like North Texas to Austin to bouncing around and all their whole region, right? Like 70, 80% of their emphasis was on evaluating the player. I think it's twofold. Now that it's gotten a little easier because of the technology advantage. And I also think like NIL transfer portal, all these guys are starting to play kind of in the upper level of college football and we're getting more game exposure to them. Players aren't coming out after like two years of starting. Just about every guy right up is like three year starter, five year player, six year player, four year starter. So that's helping. But the other part is if you go back and look at the history like 10 years back and prior, so many of the bus were character durability. Right.

this guy more money more free time more fame than he's ever had before how were we going to predict this thing so now i talk to scouts and like it's flipped it's like 70 30 the other way like 70 of the time is on the background checks getting to know who they are talking to the the strength and conditioning guy talking to people in the in the town they live in and like who is this guy when the camera's not on them on saturday so that's been an interesting part to watch over the last two and a half decades oh that's fasting there's got to be services that everybody is hiring at this point to sort of do background checks, investigative work into a guy's life. Well, a lot of these teams have like two things that's interesting.

A lot of these teams now. And Bill Paulian was one of the first that I talked to. I'm not saying he was the first to do it. But he was one of the first people that I talked to who said that they hired during his tenure as the GM for the occults, a team psychologist. And that team psychologist would sit in on all those interviews. It wouldn't just be the offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, the quarterback coach or the D-Line coach.

It would be this team psychologist today. in the back and they would create a profile this person who was a female she would create a profile for what what bill wanted in his team and you had to kind of meet and they would take psychological tests they through the interview process although so there would be certain like data points and and however you you know study the psychology of a human being you know family history those sorts of things and so that that was that became a major part of it and and the other part part is like a lot of these teams have former FBI and former like you know been government official jobs that they've hired to help that that have spent their whole live studying you know background

doing background checks on people and vetting out that whole process and it's interesting to see like the other types of human beings from other professions that have come in to try to help with that process so teams are hiring those guys as employees as investigators or do they outsource that to sort of like a Pinkerton agency who does it for a bunch of teams and a bunch of services. Yeah, almost every team has some version of psychologists or someone who works with the mental aspect of it. Almost every team has a security department. Okay. And a lot of times it's former FBI police officers, you know, government officials. And a lot of teams now also have an analytics department as well too. Fascinating. Okay. Yeah. Let's talk about the draft.

and some players specifically. Now, different than you, you know, I watch college football. I don't watch tape. I don't pretend to. And I, and my draft analysis becomes, you know, me doing these simulators and reading everybody's reports. I think of myself, like, I'm an early version of, and bad version of AI. Like, I just take in a turn of information and then I spit it back out with a little

bit of subjectivity, but I'm very aware of the fact that all I'm doing is, um, coalescing and condensing other people's opinions. And weirdly, I think that a lot of people in your industry do the same thing. So it's almost like it's an echo of an echo. I'm shocked by it, but yes, I don't disagree. And it was interesting talking to like Eric DeCosta, right? It was very, we sat down and talked to him. He's the general manager of the Ravens.

How he said he is like 146 data points or something like that that they put in. and one of them is like Madden ratings, you know, and as an NFL scale, you're like, oh, my God, you kidding me? We had Madden ratings as part of the, but he said like they've, they've, over time, they've developed a, you know, a system with all these data points and put it into, he calls it a cocktail and stir it up. And it's proven to be more accurate, you know, in some regards than when he sets the board by himself.

And so he's utilized some of those sorts of things, which I think is fascinating. And I've talked to a lot of other GMs who say, I've, handpicked a few of you that do this for a living because I know you're peddling in the information business with other people. And we go through your mock drafts and we take and we kind of take an average and it helps us figure out it's not what we're stacking our board and the players we like. But when we get to the to draft night, we got to know, is this guy going to go 10 or is he going to go 16? And so if he's going to go 10 and we want to get him, we better move. We know we got to get up to eight or nine to go get him. So those sorts of things. It's fascinating.

to see all the different, or what I, I, the thing taught that I don't like, and again, I will listen to, on draft day, draft three days, I will have on, probably I'll have on ESPN on the television, and then on my phone I'll be streaming local radio because I want to hear what the Cowboys are going to do. And this year, it'll be the McShay show on YouTube and Spotify. And the McShay show, a hundred percent. The reason I started. That big, that big ass screen that you just had in front of your face.

when you're opening the show, that'll be where the Bixier show it. No, I know. A hundred percent. Yes, I will. But here's why I want to listen to the local radio guys, like within 10 to 15 picks of the Cowboys coming up. Because they start talking about, in depth, the 10 players we think the Cowboys may target, right?

And there's a debate, like, well, can you get this guy in the second or third, or is he actually somebody you could come back to and get in the fourth? And when a team goes off. So, in other words, you listen to all these guys, they'll say, this is in the range, we should be looking for these guys. And then, I'm just using the Cowboys as an example, say they go completely off that. And then the analysts start going, we had that guy's a fourth rounder or a fifth rounder.

The point isn't whether or not the guy is good. The point is, did you mock the draft out well to know where you could get maximum value at maximum rounds? And then there's some value in knowing if a Todd McShay is right on his board. like I just don't want to take a guy even if I like him in the third if I think I could get him in the fourth absolutely there's no question

about it and this year like to spin it forward to this year a lot of teams when I'm talking to general managers around the league it's listen I love I love Ashton Genty or I love Omari in Hampton at running back but I also have a needed offensive tackle and so I'm picking let's say somewhere

I don't know five to five to 20 and one of those one of those great running backs is on the board. But I've also, we're now down to maybe three or maybe two offensive tackles left that belong in the first round. And so I'm looking at Kelvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas. And I'm saying, well, I've got a slightly higher grade on Omari and Hampton and I've got a significantly better grade on Ashton Jinty, right? But tell me who's going to be available in round two. Because when that, when those tackles come off the board, you know, when it's Will Campbell from LSU, Armand Membue from Missouri, then Kelvin Banks from Texas,

Josh Simmons from Ohio State, Josh Connerley from Oregon, and I think I might be missing on one more. But when those guys are off the board, that's it, man. There is no, like maybe you'll catch lightning a button, maybe one of these guys outplays their projection, but it is, it runs dry. But I'm looking at running back, and I'm like, I can get Quinn John Judkins from Ohio State. I can get his teammate, Trayvion Henderson. I can get Cam Scadaboo. I can get Caleb Johnson from Iowa.

In the third round, I could get R.J. Harvey from UC. So they're doing a lot of that because this year it's thin on wide receivers. It's thin on cornerbacks. I don't want to say thin on tackles, but when it runs out, it runs out. And there are other positions like defensive line, both interior and edge that are loaded, three, four rounds, running back, loaded, three, four rounds. So that's going to be interesting to see. some of these guys that we rate a little bit lower might wind up going higher on the first night

because they know when that's a shallow one ends at that position it's over right that was actually one of the questions I want to ask you today what positions do you feel like there's the biggest drop off between guys who might go in the first round and guys who might go in the third round so in other words the guy in the first round is a markedly better talent than the guy you're getting in the third because this is the game I play on the simulator Todd what you just said is like okay well the cowboys need a running back they need a receiver they need a detackle and it's not just oh look ginty dropped so i'm going to take gentie i start going yeah but like you just named a couple of guys and i would add some others to that on the running back that i could get maybe even in

the fourth round so i better grab derrick harmon you know at this point because after him although to your point defensive tackle seems like a deeper position how about this i better grab Matthew Golden because wide receiver seems to drop off early in the second round. So what is the positions it's like, hey, this thing drops off, so grab it in the first round? Offensive tackle is the number one. And I think there's a bunch of guys that you'd like to take late first. Like Kelvin Banks, you'd like to take them late first.

Some of those other guys like Josh Connerly, Josh Simmons, for different reasons, you'd like to take them early second. But I think there's a chance they all go in the first for that reason. I think I think when you look at like the here's what's interesting interior defensive line is deeper than I can ever remember okay so I can get a guy in the middle late second or even the third round they can make an impact of course they're not going to be as good as a Derek Harmon or certainly a Mason Graham who could go five overall to Jacksonville Jaguars wait and Todd does that apply to both one techs and three techs so are you deep and nose tackle as well yeah I mean I mean, there's more three techniques, like the up the field, penetrate, disrupt, and that's what the league's looking for guys who can rush the passer more than anything. There's more of those guys than maybe the massive nose tackles and all that, but those are kind of antiquated anyway.

So I just, when I look at- By the way, as a Cowboys fan, I won't, I mean, we can't stop the run for the life of us. I know. And so I'm sitting there looking at Tileak Williams and I'm looking at Kenneth Grant and I'm looking at Jamari Caldwell later. And I'm like, when do I take my big beast that's going to stop the run? run. And the good news is you can still, like, if things don't slide your way, or if you're hesitant to take a Walter Nolan at 12 or Derek Harmon at 12, there's going to be a guy in

round two. There's going to be a guy in round three. And so it's not going to be the upgrade that that you'd get in round one, but if it doesn't play out the way you want, you can still come back to that position. At tackle, you can't. At cornerback, I don't think you can. Like this year's group doesn't have the elite guys at the top, but you've got Jada Baron, who I think is one of the best 15, best 15 football players in this entire class, but he doesn't have the ideal measurables. You know, Will Johnson from Michigan, who's going to be a top 15 to 20 pick. You've got, when you go below that, I see some other guys that are intriguing, right? So all these, you got this like kind of second tier of cornerbacks like Morrison's coming off

the injury, the second hip surgery that he had at Notre Dame, but his tape in 2023 is that of a first rounder. You've got Revelle, Savon Revell from ECU, who, again, coming off injury, but has like Tyreek Wollin type traits, okay? You've got, you got Trey, Tray Amos, the cornerback and Harrison. Maxwell Harrison will go in the first. Those other guys, A. Z. Thomas from Florida State, there's this like second tier group of Revell, Thomas, Morrison, those guys, that belong, I believe, in, like, the middle of the second round, early to mid-second round. It'll be intriguing to see, like, maybe late first or, like, early second round. Because once one of those goes off the board, those guys, there's going to be a quick run.

And then you look around and you're like, I'm picking it 50. And, like, there's not a corner. We didn't exercise yesterday. I mentioned I did it on our show. Like, you got to the middle of the second round. Like, there isn't a corner that you feel good about drafting until, like, the middle of the third. so corner and tight and um offensive tackle are two positions that either what how do you feel about wide receiver it's just not a great feel so spoiled man we've been spoiled it is or is not a great group

this year it's not a great group like every year it feels like really you know a jimar chase we've got the um we got you know garret wilson chris olivae we got the four alabama guys like uh judy and rugs and and Devante Smith and all. So like we had this Jamar Chase, like it felt like every year LSU, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, they were just like flooding us with these star wide

receivers, okay? And now of a sudden we get to this year, for whatever reason, there's just like this one year gap where I love Matthew Golden. I think he's the best wide receiver in this class, 429 speed, really good routes, adjusts to the football well. But he had 38 catches two years in a row

at Houston. Is he a number one? everyone seems to a lot of people like Ted McMillan from Arizona big it looks like it looks like like Duke Drake Drake London from Atlanta coming out of USC and but it's not the dog that Drake was you got a mecca abuka who's like I think he's like the Terry McLaurin you know not not the same physical traits but in terms of like the character commitment to the game the route running precision the catching the football you just know what you're getting but after that there's there's like this little drop off and there's some good guys in the second round but it's it's not like we've had years with like six seven receivers in the first round where you feel really good about

guys like last year like you take your pick i like neighbors like this much more than marfin harrison jrison junior but it's okay to love both of them we just don't have those guys this year so you don't love mcmillan in most of my mock draft simulations for the cowboys i'm gonna tell you why I've been doing this in a second because I think it's an interesting theory, but I have been going receiver and acknowledging this is going to be your number two receiver on your team. You've got C.D. Lam. So you're not even, you want to take the best guy you can, but, you know, you acknowledge you already have a stud, one stud. I've been taking Golden. And of course, I'm a Texas Homer and all that stuff, but there's something, it's interesting. You have a few

doubts about McMillan. Like, I love his name, by the way. And so when you have an awesome name, I think I subjectively, and maybe everybody does, I inflate you. Like, Kitten Crawford, again, a former Texas guy, safety for Nevada. Cool name. Sorry, that bumps you up in my book. Omari and Hampton, cool name. It's going to work. So Ted McMillan has a cool name.

But I've been passing on him, and I've been trading back on these simulations to like 18, 19, 20, and grabbing golden. That's what I would do if I could. Find me a team that wants to move up. And maybe it's the New York Giants racing. to get up to get to get to get shouldor sanders because i think somewhere in that range a team could try to get up ahead of pittsburgh if shedore doesn't go three to the giants um but other than that who so every commerce not every conversation a lot of conversations i have with people in the league whether it's nine or eleven everyone's saying about the same thing like the player i can get at

nine 10 11 12 30 is the same level not exactly but like same level player starter but not expecting exceptional, that I can get at 33, 34, 35. That's funny. That's what I feel like just on the mock drafts. I got a lot, like, my, I do a grading sale of up to 100, you know, and, and we've got a couple of 95s with that, I don't give out the, you know, 96 is not, a couple 96 is I have, 97s, 98, 99 are reserved for like the best of all time. But like Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter are up there and just behind them.

there's only like seven guys in this class that have those really high grades. Everyone else is like a 91, 90, 89 down to about 35 players, okay? And so I hear, because I'm doing this, I'm going around doing a lot of shows and a lot of different markets and trying to promote what we're doing. It's the first time on the McShay show. And so I'm talking to a lot of people from a lot of different NFL markets. And a lot of people I'm talking to are if we could just trade back, but I don't think I've had a single conversation with someone like, I'd love to trade up.

you know what I mean and more importantly talking to people in the league like I haven't heard anyone like it would be interesting to maybe be able to move up four or five spots to get this guy when you get past that first seven picks so that's going to be the interesting part to see if anyone's willing to give up more in what is a deep class to give up more picks when you get this depth in the class but you don't have great you know talent seeping down into like 15 16 17 like we normally do will there be an appetite for somebody to jump up? So I had a conversation a week ago, Niche, with Merrill Hodge. And I think Merrill's always interesting on this stuff. He's

sometimes against the grain. And he's been right. I totally agree. Yep. Yeah. He's been right more than he's been wrong on the, on this stuff at the time where we're all like he's cool. I used to joke around. And I used to say it to them. So I can say it here. I wouldn't say it. But we do all these shows at ESPN, right? And it would be like Kuiper and myself and Schaefter would be there. And we'd have all these analysts. And we kind of, everyone was, I don't want to say like-minded but like somewhere in a range and mel and i would debate certain players and then i used to call him the NFL films biker gang they'd roll you know they'd finish up their tape they roll in in like late march early april like coming in storming the bastille like you

crazy on vince young he's terrible johnny mansell's horrible you got that you know and they'd like stir the whole and then they'd leave and it's like like papers are flying you're like what just happen you know you go back and look over time and it's like he wasn't always right but he and jaws were like they were on to some things you know like they were right more than they were wrong and so i've always appreciated the conversations i've had with merrill more of the will cane show right after this listen to the all new brett bear podcast featuring common ground in-depth talks with lawmakers from opposite sides of the aisle along with all your brett bear favorites like his all-star panel and much more available now at

Fox News Podcasts.com or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Jason Chaffetz from the Jason in the House podcast. Join me every Monday to dive deeper into the latest political headlines and chat with remarkable guests. Listen and follow now at Fox Newspodcast.com or wherever you download podcasts. Well, here's what Merrill said last week. He was on this show. He said none of the quarterbacks. He said none of them. He said, and he's not just saying, he said, I don't think Cam Ward has the traits. And he's not being personal about it.

He said, look, I've watched the tape. I don't think he is going to be a great quarterback for the Titans. Everybody presumes they're going to take him number one. He liked Chador a little more. And the only time I got him sort of sparking on a quarterback was when he started talking later. Like, I think he likes Kyle McCord. And I don't know when you get Kyle McCord, fourth, fifth round maybe.

But the point I'm getting at with Merrill's opinion, and then I want you to bring it into yours, will there be an appetite for anybody to jump up and take Shador, like at 12 or 9? Or where is he going to fall? Will there be a run on quarterbacks? There always is. Will there be this year?

I don't think, I can't remember a year where, here we, what is the date? The 17th, okay? And from like the 14th of April and 10 days away, so many quarterbacks are either flying two or organizations are getting on their private plane and flying there to see these quarterbacks last minute. And so the assumption and thought, and it's not Cam Ward, he's going number one, that's done. But you've got Shador Sanders, Jackson Dart, Tyler Shuck from Louisville, and Jalen Milrow.

Those four guys, like, they've got, their arms got to be exhausted. Because in this last, like, 10-day span, and for the next, a couple of days, there's going to be like a 12-day span where they're working out for a bunch of teams talking about Cleveland picking it two but then also 33. The Giants picking at three, but also 34. The Saints picking at nine, but also at 40. The Steelers at 21. So I think there's been this, and the media is picking up on it and understandably so, like, oh, the Giants, did you see, like, they worked out Jackson Dart and now they're flying

back out to see Shador. And anytime anyone like even passes in the hallway, Shador Sanders, it's breaking news. But they've also got to work out with Jalen Milrow and Tyler Schump. Jalen Milrow got invited to the NFL draft. The league doesn't want people sitting there and getting embarrassed. Will Levis was the last time. That's not going to happen again. 13 guys invited accepted invitations to the draft last year in Detroit.

All 13 were drafted in top 27 picks. So you've got all this stuff going on. And I everyone wants to say, Shador could still go to the Giants. And I've talked to people in the league this weekend. I was ready to close the book on it. Are you talking about at three? Yes, Travis Hunter's going two and then Abdul Carter's going three, right?

And people in the league I talked to are like, listen, I'm, I still think it will be Abdul Carter. But I'm telling you, I've talked to people who have talked to people inside the organization. There's still some discussion there. And this is also when ownership gets involved. And I think Cleveland's ownership staying out of it. They already made a big enough mess with Deshaun Watson. But the mayor of family, the mayor of family, the mayor of family. has not enjoyed being on the you know the the middle pages of the new york post and and in that

media second fiddle to erin rogers and everything going on with the jets you got chador sanders who's the face of this NFL draft the commercials the dad the c u program all that stuff i think that's intriguing to them so how does that factor in all this at the end of the day i truly believe it's going to be cam ward Travis hunter and abdul carter but what's going to be fascinating about this draft now, especially with Derek Carr, with a shoulder injury now, does that ramp things up where New Orleans wanted to take a different position, an edge rusher, a wide receiver, whatever it is at number nine, but has to go quarterback there. Is it Chador, who does, who would work well inside a dome and playing in that division?

Or is it Jackson Dart who looks a lot more in terms of the arm strength, sturdy, build, mobility, like the last three quarterbacks that the new head coach that they just hired, Kellen Moore's worked with as offensive coordinator in Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hertz. So to me, Shador doesn't go at three. Then it becomes nine is the next spot. And then after nine, everyone knows the parachute is Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 21 for Shador. So is there a team like the Giants at 34, Cleveland at 33? New Orleans at 40, maybe for Jackson Dart. There's trying to move up to go get these guys.

And I look at two teams that could be likely to move out. Minnesota at 24, maybe for a team like New Orleans trying to go get Jackson Dart. They only have four picks in the entire draft, the fewest of any organization. And then the second fewest is Atlanta Falcons sitting at 15. And they only have five draft picks in the entire class. Well, hold on. Okay. I want to back back into this. Here's something I want to ask you.

And I think you've already said this twice. I think you agree. There are two, nobody is can't miss. But the two closest to can't miss players in this draft are Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter. Is that fair? Do you think that's right? Yeah, Camp Miss is a tricky phrase. They have the most excellence.

They have the highest potential to be absolute stars and premium positions. But yes, those are the two guys. By the way, what's the position? What's the position for Hunter? Is it corner? Both. For me, it's wide receiver first. Immediately, that's where we're going to get the most impact.

I'm telling you, we all love the athleticism, the quick feet, the oily hips, the ability after the catch. The thing that does not get talked about enough with Travis Hunter, he's got some of the best ball skills I've ever evaluated. He is like adjusting, catching, high pointing, acrobatic, plucking on the run, transition. like it is second nature to this young man um but yeah i think it's wide receiver first coaches would rather him play cornerback and be in that room there's a lot more communication that has to go on it's easier to get an install each week 20 plays um you know a couple packages

we get we get the rams coming up we're going to hear the 20 different plays and five concepts that you have to be able to run but the reality is this this guy's so special you've got and you've got to get him on the offensive side of the ball you've got to get the ball on his hands. You've got to make him available as a reliable, big-time playmaker for your quarterback, and then we've got to work a minute cornerback, and maybe it's nickel packages, maybe it's red zone early on, and continue to develop that. But it's the durability I worry about with Hunter. It is not the stamina. I mean, he's played over a thousand, he's played, he's average over a thousand snaps the last two years. The game is slower, TV timeouts, all that stuff in

the league. But Travis Hunter can do it, but you've got to figure out how to keep him healthy to do it. And you can say that with every prospect, but this is a, this is a whole different experiment. And literally, give me Charles Woodson, Camp Bailey. They had like six or seven combined career NFL catches. Prime was the most, you know, in terms of a cornerback that did in the return game, but he still had like 60-something career NFL catches in a long career. So this guy's got a chance to do something that nobody has ever done in the NFL before. okay but while we're not going to use the word can't miss those are your two highest graded guys and it sounded like by margin and then the 95 96 range it sounded like and then you dropped

down to sort of the 90s for the next group and there's like a second little tier right there of of um mason graham defensive tackle michigan ashton jinty running back um boisey state tight end Tyler Warren from Penn State and Jalen Walker, edge rusher from Georgia. Okay. So what that adds up to me is, we'll stick with the Giants, but this is a proxy for the quarterback. You have to take one of those two guys if you're sitting at three, whichever one drops to you. And by the way, it sounds like you think the Browns, are they locked in on Hunter over Carter? The Browns are really good at the disinformation or the misinformation game.

But I do get that strong sense, yes, that it's going to be Hunter. and most people in the league, I talk to agree with that. Okay, so then there's the trade-up for Shador game that starts, or maybe Jackson Dart. And I think you laid out for us the teams, which is those high second-round pick teams that passed on him. So it is the Giants. It is maybe the Browns.

But they're going to have to trade up. So there will be a potential for trade-down, but you've got to beat the Saints, right? So it's going to be those guys sitting at seven or eight that have the opportunity to trade down, not the – I guess if he slips past the Saints, then it's anybody's game. That's when I think there's going to be a script. Here's the problem, too.

And I've worked this all out in terms of the trade value chart is dated. There's no question. But there's a lot of like charts and different, and just studying the history of these things. If you're going to try to trade in the top 10, let's say to eight, Carolina, from 33 or 34 to get ahead and go get Chador, even though the information is, isn't necessarily saying it's Shador there, but if you decided you wanted to do that, why wouldn't you just take him at three?

You're having to give away next year's first to do it. And you're probably not planning, like if you're the Giants, you're not planning on starting him this year. Maybe he winds up at some point. But Cleveland, they can live without starting this. So I would kind of rather keep that first pick next year and see if Garrett Nussmeyer or some of these other guys,

you know, elevate and become players that we think you'd have a higher grade. But now you get to like 12, 13, 14, 15. And if Shedur is sitting there and you really like him, if you're the Giants or if you're Cleveland and you really like him, but he wasn't worth the third overall pick and he's not worth the first next year, I can now move up into that range. I can give away my third round pick this year,

which for both those organizations is basically just a late second. It's like the first two picks of the third round. And then maybe give away a second next year. That's a different world, giving away a second next year versus your first round draft pick a year from now. By the way, you just said this, and I know you don't start until May, is the suspicion that next year's quarterback class is better? I mean, teams do look at that, to your point,

like don't give away next year's first for Shador because you could be in play for, I think people think Arch won't come out next year. So I don't know outside. When Arch comes out, I'm. And so, unless it's, It's Arch, because for a multitude of reasons, he'll be very sought after. But is there another guy next year that it's going to be like, oh, he's way better.

I think Garrett Nussmeyer has a chance. Garrett Nussmeyer, if he continues to develop, has a chance to be an absolute star. But I want to warn people of this. Jaden Daniels, after his first year at LSU, I think it was his fourth year in college football. I think it was three seasons, two or three seasons in Arizona State. he tested the waters and got a so there's an advisory committee for underclassmen you can put your name into the advisory committee and they'll come back and they'll give you one of three responses it's a group of like former scouts or people who evaluate you know players and trying to trying to prevent guys think they're going to be a first round pick because their agents telling them that and they're going to they go in the fifth round and it's a terrible you know decision for the rest of their lives um so the advisory committee tells you for you you put your name in they come back several weeks later or and they say first round grade, second round grade, or go back to school. Those are the three answers you get, okay?

And so Jaden Daniels is the, after his first year at LSU, got to go back to school. Cam Ward got a, after his final year, second year in Washington State got a go back to school. So he had to race and scrambling called Mario Cristobald. You still got that scholarship? Yeah, yeah, let's go. So, and that's not just those two guys. I'm just citing just two guys from the last couple years. It's like every year there's at least one guy that we don't expect.

And so we can sit here and say Garrett Nussmeyer. We can sit here and say Carson Beck. You know, he was supposed to be top 10 and he really sputtered this past year. But what if he has a, you know, he rejuvenates his career? There are some guys that you look at that potentially could be. But there's going to be one or two that we just, we're not projecting right now that have that final year that are playing more quarterback. the beauty is with all this NIL and the transfer portal stuff we're not going to it's not likely we have any more Mark Sanchez 13 starts USC Mitch Trubisky 13 starts UNC even Anthony Richardson

that was a surprise but we've seen the landscape even changed that much in the last couple years guys are playing more in college transferring to good good opportunities and honestly getting paid in some situations more than they're going to get paid. their rookie years in the NFL. And so the byproduct of all this mess that has to be cleaned up, we can have a whole other conversation on all that, and Nico and everything else. The positive byproduct for the quarterback market is they're playing a lot more football

and there's so much more NFL ready coming in. And we've seen that with Jaden Daniels and Bo Nix with 60 plus starts. And Daniels were 56 starts and Drake May. We're seeing a much more NFL ready quarterback coming to the league. Okay, just a couple more questions and it's because I just love this stuff. One more. Again, compensating for the fact that I'm a homer.

When Arch comes out, is that going to be a type of thing that we haven't seen in years? So you're right. We have these guys that pop up for one year. There's, I think it's fair even with everything you just said to say that a lot of these guys

are more projection than proven. Even Jaden Daniels, who's turned out to be great, it was like really one, great year at LSU. Cam Ward, I know he did some things at Washington State, but it's really predicated on one year at Miami, being the first overall. A lot of scouts, fifth round grade on him after last year, after Washington State.

So Arch has been some of the people have been watching for years, which is only going to increase the hype for him. Obviously, the last name is going to play a big role. Playing at Texas is going to play a role. I think his makeup, meaning his character and his commitment to a program is. going to play to inflate him as well. And I think that they'll probably be pretty good this year, which will also inflate him. So what I'm wondering is, is Arch going to be in the vein?

I'm not asking if he's going to work out in the pros. I'm asking the hype to draft Arch. It'll be Andrew Luck. It'll be Andrew Luck. That's what I was getting ready to say. It's Andrew Luck. So what will happen? Will teams be loading up on trying to get the ammunition to either, there's going to be

no trading up. So whoever has the first pick is going to take him, right? they're not trading out of that, most likely. I'm just wondering what that does to that draft. Yeah, it's not like some other sports. And I know everyone says, like, tank for this, like, I get it, but it doesn't, it rarely plays out that way, right? Like, even the Patriots this year.

They knew they're firing their head coach. They still let them coach that last game. Yeah, they put in Joe Milton. Joe Milton played his tail off. But by losing, by winning that last game of the season, and the same for the Giants. right those organizations could have been picking one and two but but they they weren't now it now arch isn't in this class i get it and new england had uh has their quarterback in drake may but the giants didn't right and so had the giants lost that final game and they could have been picking

you know had they lost down the stretch they could have been picking number one overall it's hard to get 53 grown men who are trying to put good tape out there because if it's not here it's going to be with another organization and coaches if it's not here it's going to be with another like I only get 17 of these a year to put out that's my resume so that's tough to happen also what's interesting is like you just said we don't know if our with with with luck we knew it was the next year right we don't know next year and maybe we'll start to get a sense and all that but it's not going to be probably during the NFL season where we're certain of it unless it's the very end so it's not something where this is his final year you know there's going to be a couple teams that don't maybe don't

spend in free agency and all those sorts of things. So it kind of is going to be like good luck off of having a terrible season, but that organization is that sitting there, unless you have a superstar quarterback, which I can't imagine that you would and wind up with the number one overall pick, you take an arch at number one in 2026 or 2027. And if you were to have that quarterback and felt you're going to wind up getting such a, like, such a haul to move out of that number one spot that it could change the, you know, the fate of your organization for years to come in a positive way.

So that's going to be fascinating to see. And I can't imagine if a team said we're going to load up on picks, we're going to start trading now for a year or two to load up on picks for the draft that Arch comes out in. It still is a worthless exercise because I don't know, first of all, you're probably still not going to have the number one overall pick. And whoever has an opportunity to draft Arch, I mean, they're going to say, I'm going to give up Arch for what, an 8th and 15th pick this year? I don't think they're going to do that. You know, two number ones, a number one next year. I just don't think they're taking new.

It would take a Patriots situation this year where they just got their guy, but they decided to only play them a portion of the season. They lost a lot of games and they're picking it number one. I mean, we were literally four quarters of football away from from that scenario playing out. So it's not impossible. right um but right but the chances of that are very slim right okay just a couple more so on on the simulation so the cowboys are in a market for the running back and in the beginning before i was you know okay maybe we can get gente at 12 that became obvious he's not going to make it to 12 and then you start seeing some omari in hampton inflation oh maybe he's 12 maybe he's a first rounder who

knows but i read this article makeshay that i found very very um persuasive is in the athletic i can't remember who wrote it but it was like don't let say juan barclay make you think that you should take gentie in the top 10 the article was about how much money it costs so in other words ginty comes out he's gonna make what's it what's he gonna make like six million a year something like that if he's a top 10 pick it's it's getting closer to 40 but it's just shy of 40 million on a five-year guaranteed contract. Okay. And the price of getting a good running back in the NFL is only slightly higher than that,

a really good running back in the NFL. So the guy was making the argument, the way the market is gone, you have only this much delta between a top 10 pick on running back and what it costs to buy a top 10, a huge running back, a veteran, where the delta is much bigger on receiver, with receivers getting $30 million a year. year now, you need to be going with a more premium position like corner receiver, defensive end, simply because of salary cap reasons.

So in other words, it's not about whether or not Genti is great, but what you have to pay him compared to other positions. So I've stopped drafting a running back in my mocks. I promise you that is considered heavily in these decisions, okay? the other part of it truly is and it boils that like this is just one example but it's the perfect example like the Patriots at four yeah you can draft gentie right and yes universally everyone in the league that I've talked to has a higher grade on Ashton Jinty than Will Campbell the left tackle with shorter arms coming out of LSU but how was Sequin with

the Giants versus Saquan with the Eagles. Right. Right. And so, like, unfortunately, even the special, special backs are more dependent upon what's in front of them and around them, whereas an edge rusher on a terrible team, like Max Crosby is still an awesome edge rusher, you know? Trey Henderson on that terrible Bengals, he's still an awesome pass rusher because that's a one-on-one. That's mono-a-mano. And it's not the same deal at running back. So those are two things you got to, like if you're the, you're the Patriots at four, you're the Raiders, where I think

probably 90% of your mock simulations that you've been running through, probably Genty 6 to the Raiders, right? Like that's, that's where every mock draft I read, including my own, mock 3.0, or the Bears if he falls, yep. You got to take all that into consideration. Like, Are you, A, are you equipped? And B, if I pass on that edge rusher there, if I pass on that cornerback there or that wide receiver, whatever the position is, what am I getting in round two?

And is it worth it financially with the salary cap and all the implications? So it's, it's so much deeper than just sitting here watching tape. You're like, poof, great vision. Great lateral agility. Oh, contact balance. Oh, it catches the ball real well. Alvin Camara. It's a lot, there's a lot more to.

And that's why there's only 32 people. in the world sitting in those chairs, those general managers, because you got to deal with ownership, you got to deal with your salary cap guy, you got to deal with your college scouting director, your pro-personnel director, your scouts, all of it. You've got to manage all of that and come and make the best decision for your organization with all of this information kind of flooding into you. And that's what makes it so hard. All right. Last question for you. I may be rare in this, I don't know, for other mock draft nerds maybe not i actually enjoy the second third and fourth round more than the first um they're the

most fun for me it tails off after that because honestly i don't know the guys in the fifth six seventh round uh quite as much so and running back's an easy position to talk about this with but i want to just i'm going to throw some names you tell me if you agree your other names that you like who are actually now every every fan's dream is to get a guy in the fourth look it's to find that press got in the fourth it's obviously to find tom brady in the sixth it but but but even Even beyond that, it's to find the running back in the fourth. That's your dream, because that's found money, right? And so here are the names that I've kind of been playing around.

So, Hodge, by the way, really likes the Virginia Tech running back, Tootin. I think his first name is Byshell or something like that. Although he fumbles a lot, I read. You mentioned R.J. Harvey from UCF as another running back. Not as big on Scataboo, who you talked about. And I've talked to some guys in the NFL. who agree they're not as big on Scataboo. So I'm curious, here's another position.

A lot of guys locally are talking up Andrew McCuba, but he's probably a second round pick, like that not just as a safety, but not just as a safety, they say. Coverage skills, slot, like versatile guy that changes your defense. So I'm just curious, other guys like this that you love that's found money

in the second, third, fourth. I'll give you to do with those. Gunner Helm. Gunner held, tied in. Yep. I view him as a like a Jake Ferguson. Like what's special about him? I don't know, but he just

he always gets open. Catches the damn ball. Gives good effort as a blocker, not great, but like just does everything, like all the little things right. There's 60, 70 catches. You know what I mean? Like, and then he sprains his ankle. It was like watching get, no, like I'm going to get in trouble, but like a horse

getting shot before running a race. You can tell that first, that first 40 he went to run and then he kind of limps back. I'm like, you know, and so he doesn't have great workout numbers. But he still finished the workout. Like, that's just kind of who he is. So Gunner Helms, one guy that I really like.

Billy Bowman, Jr., undersized. He's going to fall to the 90s in that range. My goodness, he plays the game with, like, the temp. He's like a Tasmanian devil. Also, like, I just love some of the reports you get when you talk to people around the programs. and he walks around campus and the facility with this book,

color-coded book, everyone's tendencies that he's gone up against and he's constantly writing in, and you can see it on tape, like he's processing things faster. So, um, Terry on Ingram Dawkins, edge guy from Georgia.

I could just see the Eagles. Like we're like the 100th pick or 100, like 96 pick probably for them. 98th pick, whatever it is in the third round. And the Florida GM, Howie Roseman, and takes another Georgia player.

And Dawkins, he's the opposite of, like, Bowman and, like, Jaday Barron and some of these, and Helm, who are, like, great football players without the measurables. This guy hasn't clicked yet, former five star, but his combine workout was sensational. And I put in the tape because I hadn't done him because he wasn't in my top 150. And I'm watching the tape, and I'm like, yeah, he doesn't know what he's doing yet. But my goodness, if that, like, comes on, like, he's, he's more talented than some of the guys that we're talking in the first round. So there's a bunch of players.

I'm like you, like the, we've exhausted the first round and kind of the top 40 or so picks. Get me to like that late second, third round early, we get up on Saturday. Everyone's kind of exhausted, but you're like, I still get these 15 guys on my board that I still really like. That's when it's a lot of fun for me. And it's kind of, you know, all that like sitting here in this dark room watching tape of Tyrion, you know, Tyrion taking on blocks and throwing guys in the

air but not not locating the ball like that's when I just I have a lot of fun with it trying to figure out like did the GMs and the scouts see some of the same stuff that I saw about players that we just will never really talk about during this process more of the will cane show right after this from the fox news podcasts network hey there it's me kennedy make sure to check out my podcast Kennedy saves the world it is five days a week every week download and listen at foxnews podcast dot com or wherever you listen to your favorite or podcast. This is Jimmy Phala,

inviting you to join me for Fox Across America where we'll discuss every single one of the Democrats' dumb ideas. Just kidding. It's only a three-hour show. Listen live at noon Eastern

or get the podcast at Fox Across America.com. Okay, so what's the plan? You're streaming live? How many times are you, okay, but also in the second, third, fourth round, give me your plan so I can make sure

that we have that up on our third screen. Okay, third screen, you're going to want, we're flying, the draft ends, LA. I'm not going to Green Bay. We decided. I'm not going to have some set sitting outside in 29 degrees in freezing. I've done that in Cleveland. I've done that in Philly. I sat there in the pouring sideways rain in Chicago. We're going out to some beautiful studios from the ringer,

thankfully, and we're going to be out there all week. Thursday night draft starts hour before the draft. We're going to be on YouTube, Spotify, live streaming throughout the entire first round, but starting an hour before. All the information I'm getting, all the last minute stuff that's coming in. And here's the trades I'm hearing about potentially. So we'll do that. And then we'll live stream throughout the first round. Second round, we'll be there too, half hour before. Again, YouTube, Spotify, the McShay show.

And then you'll appreciate this. Trying to figure out what to do on the third day of the draft. Because I like doing it and I'm crazy. But at some point, like the Kennesaw State Guard, just selling that 90-second video clip gets a little old. and it's the same voice you hear. It's just like, it's like noise in the background. It's like, what can we do to be fun?

So I texted our boy, Riscilla. You know the movie The Town? I'm like, yeah, I'm like, listen. I'm like, I tried calling you, your voicemail is messed up, so I'm going to shoot you a text. I was like, this is one of those deals where like, we're going to go hurt somebody, you know, nobody can know about it.

We can't ever talk about it later, but. Yeah, yeah. I need, and I said, I need your response to be, whose car were you taking, right? Yes. And so he called me back. He's like, what now, McShay? I was like, I'm coming to your house.

I'm bringing a camera crew, producers. We're going to watch the third day of the draft. I want to live stream there for a couple hours and review the whole draft, eat your food, drink your drinks, you know, just absolutely invade your home. And you're just going to have to deal with it. He's like, all right, let's do it. So we're going to be there for two hours on starting noon Pacific 3 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

It's going to be fun. Like, how can I love it. Yeah. That's it. You third and fourth round is going to, like, to your point, I want a little bit of a mock, honestly. Like, I want to know what you think's going to happen. It doesn't have to be pick by pick, but like who's left high on your board, who,

what you see happening, who you can't believe, and there'll be a guy, who you can't believe. And then we're trying to figure out, why is Trevion Henderson still available in the fourth round? Everybody said he's a high second round pick, whatever it is, right? whoever that guy is. I want to figure that out. I want some mocks for my team.

But 80% of that content, 70% of that content, you know, if Rusillo brings his A game on his personality, and that's the crapshoot here on, you know. I'm getting him to run a 40-yard dash, too. I failed to mention that. Okay. Then I want to hear you two do hang out and having fun. Yeah.

I want you two do tanging out, or three or four guys, if you can get Simmons, whoever. Have fun, enjoy the draft with me. That's what I want. I want to have fun enjoying it together. The business is done. I'll be there as a fan. All right, brother.

I appreciate you. All right, man. All right, best of luck. Thanks, Todd. Thank you. I'll talk to you soon, man. There you go. Hope you enjoyed that conversation.

Make sure you pull them up at YouTube or on Spotify with the McShay show. That's Todd McShay at the Ringer. I'll see you again next time. Listen to ad free with a Fox News podcast plus subscription on Apple Podcast. And Amazon Prime members, you can listen to this show, ad free on the Amazon Music app. It is time to take the quiz. It's five questions in less than five minutes. We ask people on the streets of New York City to play along.

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