WRFH/Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM - Hart on the Hill: Polls and Prayer

Episode Date: October 23, 2024

This week, Micah Hart takes a deep dive into the polls in swing states and discusses faith in politics.

to another episode of Heart on the Hill. As always, I'm your host, Micahar, and it's great to be back here with you today talking about everything going on in politics. We are just a few weeks out until the election. So there's a lot going on and there's a lot to talk about. So without further ado, let's get into everything going on. So first up, I just want to take today to just discuss the state of the race, what it's looking like where things are, how this seems like it might go. And it's really a chaotic race. I mean, we've talked about this before on the show. I've always told you, look, it's going to be a close race, and I'm still saying that right now. I think it's going to be a close race. But if you

look at the history of this race, it's been crazy. I mean, we had the president of the United States drop out of the race. Then his vice president became the nominee rather quickly. We've had failed assassination attempts against President Trump multiple times. It's been a crazy year in politics and it's so mind-blowing to me that it's just been a few months of this happening. I mean, we saw this happening June, July, August, it's been a short period of time and all of this happened. So there's a lot to cover in politics and there's been a lot. And I mean, this race has shifted a ton because of these changes we've seen. And also just the different things that have happened in the campaign throughout the last few weeks. So I want to get to those

in a minute. But I want to first start with just looking at these swing states. So we all know there are a few states that will really be the most critical in deciding who wins this thing. And of those are the great state of Michigan where I am recording this episode today. And then you have states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia. Those are like, the main ones along with like Nevada and then Minnesota is mentioned, Ohio is mentioned. Texas is sometimes brought up in New Mexico and Virginia. I'm getting a lot of this from the real clear politics website. They have some great information on polling and stuff. So if you're ever interested, that's somewhere I am using today at least to get a lot of my numbers and

data on all of this stuff. So right now, as of today, their average sits at for the national average is Trump at 48.5% to Harris is 49.3%. That's a 0.8% difference between Harris and Trump. That's crazy. But if you look at the top battlegrounds, the difference between them, Trump's at 48.4. Harris is at 47.2. Trump up 1.2% in that regard. These are very close margins. If we looked at the numbers as to the electoral map, right now it sits at Trump to. Harris 215, so it's neck and neck with 104 toss-ups. That's really what's going to decide it, as we've talked about. But if you look at no toss-up stage right now based on the polling, Trump sits at 312 to Harris's 226. That's a pretty significant number. And I know that seems like

that's not close. It's not really close, but I do think that it will be close. I don't know how this is all polling. Polling is sometimes a very skeptical thing of, is it right, is it wrong? We don't know. So I really really. don't know, obviously, how this is going to go. None of us do. We're all kind of just sitting here waiting in suspense to find out. But it's really interesting to me to see those numbers of, she's up on the national average, but he's up on the battleground. So what does that say about this race? Are we going to have another race where we have an electoral college victory, but a loss of the popular vote? I don't know. I think it could go many ways here. That's always interesting, too,

because then you get calls for getting rid of the electoral college, which we should keep the Electoral College, it makes sure that all states are heard and that people are heard from different parts of the country. I think it's a really important institution to maintain. And so if we're looking at a lot of this in terms of how this looks in comparison to like 2020, at this point in 2020, there's a big difference, I think. And I think it's definitely been a difference. I mean, top battlegrounds in 2024 is R, so Republican, up 1.2, that's Trump. But if you looked at the top battlegrounds in 2020, it was, top battlegrounds is Democrat up 4.1%.

And so if we look at that, that's a pretty significant spread. Trump up 5.3. So that's pretty significant. If you look at the real clear national average compared to 2020, 2020, 24 is D plus. point eight in 2020 was D plus 8.6. So it's a Trump 7.8% spread their point spread, I guess. So these are things that you definitely need to look at and consider when looking at overall what's going on. And I think sometimes polls can often be wrong about Trump. I think that they have been wrong, proven wrong. So we'll see if Trump does better or worse. We'll see what happens.

Obviously, I'm not going to make any predictions. But I think it's really interesting also to look at what's going on in the Senate and the House. So let's just look at the Senate for a second. I mean, the big ones are Ohio, again, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. But then you get an interesting state of Montana and Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Texas, New Mexico, Missouri, and Virginia. Those are the states that are mentioned on Real Clear's top list. So it's going to be interesting. the ones I'm really interested in, I think Montana's going to be one to watch us just because it's such a Republican state to so many people, but they have a Democrat senator right now who's up for re-election. So that'll be an interesting one to watch. I think Ohio will be really interesting. As I've said before, watching what happens with J.D. Vance on the top of the ticket with Trump will be really interesting to see if that has any effect in Ohio. You have a senator from that state as the VP pick. Will that affect this Senate? race, will that affect anything going on in that state? Michigan will be another close one. I think really important on election night to watch Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

There are obviously other swing states. I think these three are really, really important to watch. For some reason, I always really focus on Wisconsin. I think it's a super, super close state that you need to focus on. You need to watch. You need to make sure you're looking at the numbers in that state because it's always really close in a lot of them, but Wisconsin to me just always seems to be so, so, so, so close. And I know a lot of them, as I said, are, but that one seems to me to be the one. And I mean, if you look at 2020 numbers of Biden and Trump there in 2020,

if you look at Wisconsin, Biden won with 49.4% to Trump's 48.8. That's really close. Michigan, 50.6 Biden, Trump, 47.8. Pennsylvania, Biden at 50% flat, Trump at 48.8%. If you look at states like North Carolina, 49.6 to 48.6%. If you look at states like Arizona, 49.4 to 49.0. That's another really close one to watch is Arizona. And Nevada, 50.1 to 47.7, Georgia as well, 49.5, 49.2.

So those are big ones. So Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, huge states to watch. These are states that flipped from 2016 in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania's cases to then Biden in 2020 from Trump in 2016. So these are states to really watch and see what happens there because I think they'll be interesting to watch presidentially, but also on the Senate side of what does Michigan look like? Does slot can win or does Rogers pull out of victory? I mean, if you look at states like Wisconsin, does Baldwin win or does Havdi have a chance

to go in and win that? Pennsylvania, does Casey winner? or does McCormick come in and win that thing? I think it will be really interesting. I don't think we can know. I think that's the thing with all of this is I can tell you as much information as I have on polling, data, statistic numbers at rallies, whatever I can say. But I can't tell you who's going to win this election.

No one can. Nobody on the news can tell you who's going to win this election. Nobody can predict correctly, perfectly who's going to win. We don't know. I think you can say, oh, they're going to win or they're going to win. But that's just guesses. We don't know what's going to happen. I think there are a lot of people who have been silent, sitting and out just.

listening, waiting, those independent voters, those swing state voters, those people who are not deciding at that very small percentage who don't know who they're voting for, that's who we need to watch for. And I think something interesting when we're talking about all of these statistics, the polls, the numbers, everything going on right now in the state of politics is what is what is happening with these voters who don't know where they are going to go on this, where they're going to, who they're going to vote for, is to look at what the sides are doing. what each party is doing to win over those voters. Very interesting to look at these strategies.

Harris has been campaigning with a lot of Republicans who are now voting for her and saying like country over party, things like that. Where she was with Liz Cheney the other day campaigning at an event and just trying to get out the vote from moderate or Republicans who just don't care for Trump. And she's been trying to say, come to my side, there's room for you on the Democrat side with me. vote for me and we'll make sure we save democracy. That's what's really been the drive of the left. I mean, we know Liz Cheney was pretty involved in going after Trump after January 6th.

So it makes sense that she's gone over there and said, you know, I'm going to go with Kamala on this one, because democracy is so big to the Democrats on this election. They're making it about things like abortion, democracy. And democracy, I think, is a really big one they're trying to pull on is, remember what we had then. And that's what they're pulling on is the, the, remember what happened? remember that day that fateful to January 6th what happened on that day after they're pulling on now on the republican side you have Trump who may be campaigning with Nikki Haley and I think that is a

smart move I think Trump really should consider campaigning with her I mean you just look at who she is what she campaigned on it would be a wise move on his part to start campaigning with her bringing all hands on deck to do that bringing different parts of the party together to make sure that he has the best chances that he can get. And I think Nikki Haley can do Donald Trump a lot of good in this race. Why? Because she won in areas that I think have voters that are

undecided still. She won in places that have people who don't know or they maybe don't trust Trump as much and they're still confused as who they're going to vote for. And Nikki Haley can appeal to them. She appeals to a different part of the party. I mean, Trump, I think, really needs to do well with woman.

He needs to at least try to cut that margin between him and Harris. And bringing on Nikki Haley, somebody who is a strong woman in Republican politics is known. She ran for president in 24. People know her. Get her on the campaign trail and let her start campaigning for Trump because she'll bring in a different perspective. Trump has some great surrogates from his more part of the MAGA base who are doing great

work. They're going out there. They're having rallies. They're fighting. But being able to expand the tent is what needs to happen. And being able to bring people in at this last minute is what needs to happen for Trump to do well, for him to exceed expectations to bring in new people to secure this, put this in the bag for him. So that's what needs to happen on Trump's side. So you have Harris competing with Cheney.

We could see Trump and Haley together. It's very interesting to watch how parts of the party, Republican Party, have moved in certain ways, even the Democrats, and looking at politics now and saying, what is going on? Where do we go from here? but I really do think that every person needs to be in politics who's on their sides and rooting for a certain person needs to get involved in these last few days. And this is going to be close. I don't think people understand that enough. I think that people really need to understand. Like I've said from the beginning, this is going to be a close race. We need to make sure we're watching every state, watching what's going on because it's going to be a close one, I think. And I could be wrong. I don't know. But that's what I know. just seeing and thinking and like being able to just see recent elections.

They've always been pretty close. So I think it's going to be one just to watch in terms of what happens and who is able to do better and perform with certain demographics and certain types of people because I really do think at the end of the day it's who's reaching out to people, who's reaching out to those voters who feel like they're not heard, who feel like they are. who feel like they are not being represented properly. And I think those are the people who are really going to decide this election in these swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, all these swing states is really those things of who are those swing state voters. And what are they feeling?

How do they feel? What do they think about the issues? Are they voting on the issues? or are they voting more on character personality? Because that will be a defining thing too, is watching, what did you vote on? Did you vote on the issues or did you vote more on like the character of the president? Having somebody in power who is not tweeting certain things or things like that.

That is something I think that will be interesting to watch on election night to see as people leave the polls and we start seeing results. Did people look at that or did they look at policy? They say, yeah, the prices are too high. The border's not secure. And what issue is the top issue? I think it will be the economy. But obviously, there will be a lot at stake in this election.

As I always, they always say it's always funny to me that we hear them say, this is the biggest election of our lifetime. And I'm like, that's what you say every time. So I'm not really sure about that. But obviously, it's so important to have these elections and to see this political process through and no matter how crazy they get. I mean, this has been a really crazy one and it's a crazy time to be alive in U.S. politics. I love it. I think it's so exciting and so cool. I've really hyped up for this election, but it always makes you just grateful to live in this country to be able to

vote and to watch this process go through. It's always just so cool to me. Ever since I started watching politics I just loved this day. It was like, for me, it's like the Super Bowl because it's like everything's coming together. It's been a whole season of this. What's going to happen? It's this one day is going to be that big moment we're going to see and who wins. And it's, oh, it's so exciting. So, so I always really try to just think about it in that way of like, this is a moment in history. I really want to enjoy this moment, learn from this moment, and just be a part of this moment. And so that's been something I've really enjoyed. You're listening to Hard on the Hill on Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM. And I'm, of course,

you're still your host, Micahart. And I am so happy to be back with you today, just discussing everything going on in politics. Well, if we're looking at what is going on in the campaigns, there's also a lot of a lot of crazy stuff going on with like political traditions. I mean, a big thing to me was Kamala Harris skipped the Al Smith dinner, which is a big dinner, charity event put on by the Catholic Church is pretty significant in it. It's a Catholic charity event, essentially. And so Kamala Harris didn't go. And the last time, like, that I could find that a president didn't go. And Trump even commented on this was Walter Mondale. And here's what Trump said. I think it's great. He said, I think it was terrible that she missed it because only one person

missed it in many years. And that's Walter Mondale. And he lost 49 to 1, which is just crazy. She didn't go. She said in a video, I didn't find it tasteful. I didn't find it to add anything. And I think it was just, you're missing something that's like, like maybe it won't affect any votes, but you're missing something that's part of political tradition. And for somebody who just loves that, I was upset because I was like, come on,

this is such a big thing. You should be there. It's a fun night where they make jokes and have fun. And it's just a good time of bipartisanship, in my opinion, where they can just talk. I mean, you see them make jokes of themselves and make fun of each other and just have fun with it, and that's really what it should be about.

And I was a little upset that. She didn't go to that. But also, I mean, talking about Catholics and what's going on, the Michigan Catholic Bishop went after Gretchen Whitmer, who had made a video, and it appears to have mocked the Eucharist, and so there was a lot of contention there. And then, so in a statement, Whitmer apologized and said, and I quote, over 25 years and public service, I would never do something to denigrate someone's faith. I've used my platform to stand up for people's right to hold and practice their personal religious beliefs.

What was supposed to be a video about the importance of the Chips Act to Michigan Jobs has been construed as something it was never intended to be and I apologize for that. So I think this was absolutely horrible. The video, I saw the video, I watched it. I did think it was awful. I'm not Catholic, but I did find it to be, yeah, there are definitely things that I I would be frustrated at with it if I was Catholic. I am religious. I am Christian. So I am also upset about it still.

I think it really does look like a religious event, the Eucharist. And it really was taking that and using it a different way with a Dorito for the Chips Act. And I just think it was really offensive and shouldn't have been done. And I think that's something we need to look out to in politics is the role of faith and how important it is to have your faith in politics if you are a person of faith. I am and so for me that's always something I consider in my politics and what I'm doing and how I live and how I would consider different opinions. But I just think like they can't you can't take the religious vote for granted. You can't take anything of that support for granted. You need to be representing everyone.

I don't care what religion it is, whatever. That's their job. And she even said that like she doesn't want to go after any of these groups. She's tried to be there for them. but this didn't make it seem that way. And I just think my thing with this whole thing is that we need leaders who protect faith allowed people to go to church. Remember during COVID where they shut down churches?

Like churches were being gone after and there was a lot of frustration within faith communities, I think, about that. And so I think we really need to just look at where faith is at. in this country and where faith is at in terms of protection from the law and with the law and protecting rights of faith communities to live out their faith, to have their churches to do this or that, and not mocking them. We shouldn't be mocking anyone. I don't care what you believe or whatever. That's not the place anywhere, especially in politics. You shouldn't be doing that. So I really do think that these are things we have to consider. I

I mean, it may seem like a small thing, but it's not really. These are things that you look at and you look at 10 years online and say, where will we be in 10 years? Especially in regards to faith in this country, where will we be in 10 years? I hope we're still doing good and we are still protecting those rights for everyone, whatever faith they are. But you know, you always wonder about those things and say, how will my faith be protected in 10 years? Will my children, will my grandchildren, will my friends, will we be able to live out our. faith, how we want to and how it should be lived out. And that's not something the government decides, but they do have a role in if you can do it publicly or not. So those are definitely things that I think

about a lot is what will faith look like in this country, what will faith look like in this world, five, ten years down the line. And I think even things like this make you look at that and say, well, that's going on in politics. So there's a lot to be said about that. Well, thank you for tuning into today's episode of Heart on the Hill. As always, it has been a pleasure. And I've been your host, Michael Hart, for this episode of Heart on the Hill. And you've been listening to Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM. Thank you so much.

And have a great day.