WRFH/Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM - Neetu Arnold: Why Asian Americans Shifted Right

Episode Date: December 10, 2024

Neetu Arnold is a Paulson Policy Analyst at the Manhattan Institute and a Young Voices contributor. She joined WRFH to discuss why Asian Americans shifted right in the most-recent election.From 12/10/24.

This is Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM. I'm Nicole Sigurdow, and with me today is Nitu Arnold, a palsum policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute and a young voices contributor. Hi, Nitu. How are you doing today? Hi, Nicole. I'm doing really good. I hope you're doing well, too. Thank you. What sparked your interest in researching the shift of voting trends of Asian Americans in this most recent presidential election? Well, I was interested because I feel like there's confusion about Asian American voters. There's this perception that they tend to vote Democrats, and yet the way they actually live are more, they're a lot more conservative in their values. You know, a lot of Asian Americans are either immigrants or their children of immigrants, and they value hard work and education. Many of them come here and they just want to live, you know, decent and safe lives.

They want to be in good neighborhoods, safe neighborhoods. And they really just want access to opportunities. And yet a lot of the policies from Democrats and liberal institutions have very much been going against some of the values that Asian Americans support, you know, from decreasing standards in education to more. relaxed policies concerning crime. And at some point, you start to think, well, those values are probably coming into tension with each other. Meanwhile, when the election results came out, I still recall that New York Times map where it showed the shift to the right among various counties across the country.

It was this map with red arrows and it was everywhere. And there were also headlines that were talking about Hispanic voters shifting to the right. And a lot of people were interested in that because it seemed like the Democrats had put so much attention on diversity and inclusion policies. And it seemed like minority voters would be in the bag for Democrats. And yet we were seeing shifts with Hispanic voters. And I thought to myself, nobody's talking about the Asian American. voters shifting right. And I had a hunch that maybe that was happening. So I decided to talk to people across the country, Asian American voters, and kind of get a sense of

why they thought they were more interested in conservative or Republican policies and what could explain this shift. Wow. Yeah. I completely agree. I think I'm from Southern California. and so there's lots of Asians in my area. And even though it's the stereotype that they vote democratically, I agree that they are just so, so hardworking and that their values overall just align more with Republicans. Another thing I found interesting in your article was you mentioned that before election days,

exit polls were, it looked like they were underreporting the number of Asian American voters. Do you think this was possibly with the intent? attention to maybe dissuade voters from going and voting for Trump on election day? Or do you just think that maybe Asian Americans didn't complete more of these polls? Like you mentioned, there is a language barrier sometimes. So what's your thoughts on that? So I was actually looking at the exit polls after the election. And this was primarily Washington Post and NBC News, where they were showing shifts to the right, when I say the right, the electoral right, so Republican or Democrat,

Asian voters were shifting to the right by a couple of points, nine points, five points. One thing to keep in mind with exit polls are they're not always accurate, and especially when it comes to smaller populations like Asian American voters, they can become even more inaccurate just because there aren't that many of us to poll. I don't think it was necessarily about dissuading the votes since I was looking at these exit polls after the election, but I just don't think they were capturing the shift and the strength of the shift. But that's why I decided to look at the precinct level data and matching it with census data. Precinct level data will capture the votes, the number of votes, but the census data can actually break

down information of, you know, various geographical areas in the U.S. by race. And so it was matching the census information with precinct level voting data. And, you know, when I was looking at this information, it was important to look at, there were kind of a couple of criteria, you know, one was just, are we looking at cities and areas with large Asian populations? And then, two, it was considering the quality of the data. First, that information had to be available. The information needed to be complete and it needed to be comparable between 2020 and 2024.

And so I looked at, you know, cities in Texas, in New York and Chicago or Illinois. You know, one thing that was noticeably missing from my analysis was Western cities, which is actually where you have a lot of Asian American voters. But the information wasn't quite there when I was conducting the analysis. But I'm hoping to do that soon. Okay, fantastic. Sorry I misread that portion in your article. No worries. So this is Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM.

I'm Nicole Sigirotau talking to Nitu Arnold. And has there been another shift similar to this in American election history in the past that you've noticed? So I don't know if I can answer that question. You know, when I was writing this article, it was my first attempt at looking at the shift among Asian American voters for this election season. And again, I think other people should take the information that I have and build on that work. I just felt that it was important to look into this issue because, again, I think there's sort of a misunderstanding of why Asian voters vote the way that they do, even though they also live more conservative lives. And it was an issue that I wanted to bring to the attention to the public. Absolutely. And besides being disappointed with economic policies from the Biden administration, public safety, and anti-merit education policies, do you think Trump was able to gain more voters through specific campaigning methods? Like, did you see him going specifically out to talk to Asian Americans about these issues and how he would address them?

I actually felt like messaging is a big part of attracting Asian voters. And again, the issues that they care about have to do with education, crime, safety, the economy. I think in general, the Trump administration did talk, and in general, like even Republicans had talked about the economy and crime pretty well. And the voters I spoke with, that was something they felt more comfortable, that was, that Republicans could address. On social issues, I think Asian voters are still more likely to lean. It's kind of a mixed bag. On certain issues, they'll probably lean more Democratic, but on some of the more extreme policies from progressives, you know, whether that's on transmedicine for, for, excuse me,

transition for for minors or affirmative action policies, race-based considerations and college admissions and in this case even at the high school level. I think those are areas where there could be at least from the voters I've spoken to, you know, they feel like messaging could use some more work and more attention. Yes, that makes sense. I do think that the anti-merit education policies, especially in high schools, seem to be bothering lots of people. Do you think that if this issue isn't resolved, it'll continue to push voters more to the right since it is really impacting younger generations? I mean, that's what the voters were telling me.

There's one person that I specifically quoted where she felt that if Democrats continue to push gender ideology in schools and have more, I guess, soft-on-crime policies, then Asian voters will move to the right. If Democrats are willing to moderate on those social issues, then Asian-Americans will stay where they are. And I don't know if you necessarily have the information for this, but do you think that younger generations of Asian-American voters are starting to trend more Republican than their parents were just because of what has been

happening within the past few years in our political climate? I mean, that's an interesting question. And based on the polls and the research that I've read, my understanding is that the first generation of Asian Americans tend to be more conservative than the second generation, which would be their children. And then it actually goes back. The third generation onwards tends to go back to being more conservative. I have a couple of theories as to why this could be happening.

I imagine that second generation, Asian Americans are trying to fit into Western society. And if the Western society is more liberal on certain issues, those students are just trying to fit in with their classmates. And then there are also issues of identity. just do they feel American enough or do they still feel Asian? And there's always that divide. But for third generation, Asian Americans, identity may not be such a big issue because they're more or less like part of the social fabric of America. And so they're more interested in just basic issues like the economy and safety. So, and, you know, the first generation, I could see why.

they're just more conservative. It has more to do with their values, which could be informed by religion. It could also just be common sense issues. Going back to education, you know, for many immigrants that come to the United States, Asian immigrants specifically, you know, education is what got them here. And so they really just want the best for their children. And when they see policies that are limiting what their children can achieve. And essentially, they're getting demonized for being too successful. I don't think a lot of Asian American parents view that very kindly. No, of course, I don't think anyone would. I think that your hard work is just so, so valuable. And of course, if you're being punished for that, I could see why you would change your voting

patterns in order to prevent that from continuing to happen. What would you suggest Republicans do in order to try to keep this trend of voting toward the right continuing with Asian Americans? I mean, in your article, you mentioned that there is kind of a limit to how far right these voters will go because more educated people tend to be more liberal. But do you think, think there's other things that Republicans could be doing to potentially keep drawing in these votes for the next election cycle? Well, I think something both parties need to keep in mind is just that the Asian American vote is up for grabs. It's not guaranteed for one party or the other. We're obviously seeing this shift based on the issues of economy, crime, and education.

but if the messaging falters or they're not paying attention to Asian American voters, then they're going to go somewhere else. And so I think it really does come down to messaging. You know, for both sides, are they actually meeting the needs of Asian American voters? I think that was a key message that so many people were bringing up that. And keep in mind that not all Asian American voters. vote the same, you know, different groups will have different priorities. And, you know, something else I'd like to see. I mean, this is not so much about Republicans or Democrats or, like, even political analysts.

But I wish that there was just better data on Asian American voters so that we could actually get a sense of what this looks like in different states and different cities. I mean, that was something, conducting this kind of analysis was already different. difficult. And it felt very limiting to only see this in certain cities and states. And so I would like to see just more standardization by how election boards report voting data. Yeah, that makes absolute sense. This is Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM. I'm Nicole Sigirot talking to Nitu Arnold, and we're going to keep discussing the voting trends of Asian Americans in the past 2024 election cycle. What policies do you think that Trump should maybe focus on specifically to appease the wants

of these voters? And I mean, at least in my mind, it seems as if one of the things he could be addressing is maybe the education system. and how it's been affecting Asian Americans. I'm not sure if that's something he could do, but what are your thoughts regarding policies he should be putting in place? I mean, I think the policies that Asian American voters are generally interested in, at least on education, is they want to make sure merit is kept. You know, I think something we've been seeing over the past couple of years

is just that there's been this war on merit, that we need to get rid of honors classes to make it, quote, equal for all groups, which is absolutely ridiculous. And it's punishing those who have worked really hard and would benefit from advanced education. I think talking about bringing back safety into our schools and making sure that students who aren't behaving well and are actually disrupting the classroom environment, you know, they're dealt with accordingly so that the learning environment is effective for all people. You know, this isn't just about Asian Americans. This is about all.

And, you know, just affirming that racial considerations, especially for the competitive high schools where they have admissions, that, you know, that's just not acceptable. that at the end of the day, merit and high standards are going to be at the forefront of education. So one of the things you just touched on was kind of the racial issues. And in your article, you mentioned that especially after George Floyd's death and the riots that occurred in 2020, that many Asian Americans felt as if they were on the wrong side of Brown and that they weren't really being. addressed or considered with all these issues. How much of a factor do you think that this played into this election cycle? I mean, I'm not surprised that Asian Americans felt kind of sidelined

with the diversity and inclusion policies. And I think they very much felt excluded and, in fact, demonized. So I think that did have a big role to play on how they viewed the Democrats. that I think they started to rethink their loyalty to the party because they just felt like they weren't going to be supported. If there was going to be racial discrimination in education, again, they weren't going to be protected because they're viewed as too successful. And again, I don't think Asian American parents were especially going to view that well. I mean, having grown up in an Asian American family and being familiar with the culture, I mean, there's so much emphasis on hard work and just doing your best. And to see that punished, I could see why people would, you know, they're not going to be happy with that.

Yes, yes, that makes complete sense. So in regards to future elections, you mentioned that gathering all this data to write this article was extremely challenging and that just having a more standardized process would assist with that. Is there anything else you would like to see being put in place to just help with gaining more information on this front so that way more people are aware of how voting demographics may be changing in the United States? I think my main, I think it's really just a standardization of the information and making sure it's available and making sure the information is also comparable across different years.

You know, I actually wanted to look into this information in Virginia, which is where there was a big fight over at Thomas Jefferson High School over the anti-merit admissions policies. And I wanted to look at Fairfax County. And the problem was the information was not comparable because the data did not separate absentee and mail-in ballots, it wasn't broken down. And so at the precinct level, and so it was really difficult to compare information between 2020 and 2024. And I imagine that that's an issue in many places. So just making sure we have better data and that it's standardized. Perfect. Thank you. Well, this has been such a nice conversation. Our guest has been

Me Too Arnold and I'm Nicole Seguirateau on Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM.