WRFH/Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM - Total Bases: Ohtani's Options

Episode Date: December 1, 2023

Mark and Greg take a look at Ohtani's most likely landing spots as well as analyzing the early hot stove moves. 

A couple of big-name pitchers leave the free agent market, and the New York Yankees are certain that they will be the ones to sign Yamamoto. But then again, so is everyone else. We'll talk about all that and more coming up here on Total Bases. All right, welcome to Total Bases here on Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM. I'm Greg Marino here with Mark Marino on November 30th, and we got a lot to get into here today. It's been a couple weeks since we've last done the show, and things are starting to shift around into offseason. Most notably, I would say, is Phillies signing Erin Nola, seven years, 172 million.

So let's talk about that for a minute here. Obviously, it's a re-sign, so, you know, it's not like it's a new team for him or anything. But, you know, the Phillies won the pennant a couple years ago, came up just short of another pennant this year. So I think they want to, they kind of want to be a like. legacy team and I think they're definitely looking for a world series. Yeah, I think that this is a bit of an overpay, but it's actually not as much

for an overpay as I was kind of expecting. So I feel like Newell's kind of really overrated. People fall in love with his strikeouts and strike out to walk ratio and his innings. But it doesn't matter how many innings you're pitching. If you're consistently pitching at like a league average level, you're just not really that great. Yeah.

I mean, I feel like his, his best years were a few years ago. You know, when he had those sub three ERA seasons, you know, where he was kind of like finishing top five in Cy Young. What was that? 2019. 2018. 2018. Yeah.

I remember he was on my fantasy baseball team that year. That was pretty nice. That was when I started being an Aeronola fan. But, yeah, it has been a few years now of relatively mid-EARAs for him. And it is one of those things, but like you said, as a pitcher, you know, ERA is the stat to be good at. You know, the goal of the game is to not give up runs. So if you're giving up, you know, three, four runs per nine innings, you're not that elite. Yeah.

I think maybe the Phillies defense has been so good the last few years that could be contributing to it. Yeah, that's kind of fair, honestly. The Phillies do put a lot of guys out of position. you know, they got Harper at first. They got Schwerber on their roster. Although he's Juerber and Cassiano. I was saying Cassiano's has improved a bit in the field. But, yeah.

Yeah, but I don't, I don't think your defense is so terrible that it's like that is primarily responsible for him underachieving. But I heard people saying he's going to get in like a 200. This seems kind of reasonable to me. Like, well, he's probably not going to be worth it. He's unlikely to totally bomb the way that a lot of big name free agents have. the last few years and just throughout history. So he's probably not going to be worth 172 over this contract, but I think it's a good chance he's going to be something not that far from that.

Maybe it'll get like 100 to $140 million of value, something like that. But Stephen Strassberg in 2019 got two. 70 years 245. 245. And that was like, you know, there's been a lot of inflation. Yeah, that's thing. So considering the inflation, like that Stephen Strassberg, if he had been where he was today,

he'd probably be getting about, like, that's probably like the equivalent of 300 million or so. And so maybe even more. I would, so basically Strasbourg got paid in real terms about double what Nola got paid. And obviously, like, I don't know, he's pitched like three games

and given up like 30 runs in those three games for the Phillies or the nationals. So. Yeah. Also, Anthony Rendon, the same year. year. He's been totally valueless for the angels for the exact same contract. I do think

there's a lot of value though in just having a reliable starting pitcher who will pitch every five days and be solid though. Especially come playoffs it's like yeah I don't think Nola's an absolutely dominant ace like I don't think you know he's you know

an auto win in October the way you know the way like Garrett Cole was back with the Astros and really still is with the Yankees or Zach Wheeler. Zach Wheeler even has at this point surpassed Nola on that Phillies rotation. But I do think that, you know, just having a solid guy who will give you innings go deep into games. And, you know, and he has a pretty good ERA too.

So I think there's a lot of value there. And they've had him for a while. I always like resigns as in general. Like, I think, you know, when players switch rosters, it all. often affects them more than people think. You know, like, there's a reason why we've seen a number of big-name free agents really underachieve.

And part of that is, you know, the change of senior rate. Whereas you see, like, Aaron Judd's resigned with the Yankees and he puts up, you know, similar rate. He produces at, like, similar rates as last year, minus the injuries. Yeah. I mean, there is something to be said for that reliability, and he has been very good in the postseason for last few years. However, the Oratio was already pretty deep and strong.

Obviously, they got Wheeler heading the way. I think he's the best pitcher in baseball. So you already kind of got your ace. And then they have Christopher Sanchez, Taiwan Walker, and Ranger Suarez. Ranger Suarez has also been really good in the postseason. So, I mean, that's like a solid for some. I think that if you're entering the postseason with that,

that you feel comfortable with that rotation. I think it never hurts to have an extra arm, though. So I... But if what he's promising... really providing you his reliability and you've already have a pretty solid rotation. I guess that's kind of fair. It's like he isn't completely dominant, but,

and they have a lot of, I kind of see the argument there. Like maybe they could have spent that money on offense. Although, really their offense is pretty good. Like, with Harper and Trey Turner in there. Yeah.

There's some rumors they could be treating Castiano's, which sort of makes sense considering, you know, that they have Schwerber at D.H and eventually maybe the Harper first base experiment will work and you'll have to be moved back to the outfield. Yeah. I generally don't like it when good teams sell,

but I do see if you feel like you have a guy who's not a great fit for your roster why you might want to do that. But if they do trade for cast, trade Castiades out. They should bring someone else in. But, you know, so they could do it. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies aren't done this off season.

in like I haven't heard their name linked to Bellinger that much but a guy like him could I could see him fitting into that roster yeah their center field's kind of weak for that yeah he can play center he can also play first if you want to put Harper back in the outfield and you know very good hitter like if you put Bellinger in that roster on that in that lineup yeah I think they become like an even scarier offense and really become like especially with their strong rotation which can really carry in a regular season. It's like, you know, they're in the same division as the Braves. So this year, you know, they had their run in October, but they were not competitive with the Braves in the regular season. So, and obviously the Braves are looking as good as ever

next year too. But, you know, I think if you're the Phillies, it'd be nice to win that division. And adding another piece on offense, adding Bellinger, and then obviously resigning Nola was one step in that direction. Is there a shot that we see a change in the NL East crown this year? I would say there is because last year the bridge got extremely lucky with no one on their offense being injured. So they just kind of had this really strong lap, no injuries. And like their pitching staff is kind of not super reliable. Like, you know, Max Fried, you kind of expect he's going to be injured. They just trade away Soroka and a bunch of other guys to the, white socks for Aaron Bummer

to upgrade the bullpen a bit. I thought that was a little odd. They gave up a lot of guys just for a relief pitcher. Who had like a 670 ERA last year. Yeah. Yeah, it's honestly kind of inexplicable. Especially Mike Soroka. I get it.

He hasn't done a whole lot in the last few years, but he's a young guy who's shown potential to be like a Cy Young caliber pitcher in the past. Yeah. Like Morton's really old. I guess like, you know, obviously there's a lot of talent on that team I just don't really expect another 100 win season

and I do think the Phillies are scary so I think it's going to be much more competitive this year at least at the very least yeah I think it feels like the Braves are just a gauntlet team that is just absolutely dominant over everyone else in that division

but if you really kind of size up player by player going into next year I really could see the Phillies taking that over especially with that kind of, I'm not going to say weak because they did pitch well last year, but kind of fragile pitching where like, it kind of like hung on by a thread last year. Yeah, let's not forget, the Phillies have really handled and easily beaten the Braves in the playoffs the last two years.

Yeah, that is, that's been rough for the Braves. Like their organization has to be coming back with some vengeance after that because like, that's back to back outstanding regular seasons just for utter playoff busts. Like, it's not a good look for the organization. So maybe they'll make some moves. But we'll see how that shapes out. But elsewhere, more going into the NL Central, Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to three years, $75 billion.

And, you know, the Cardinals are coming off an atrocious underperformance failure of a season. So what are we thinking with that? Are they going to compete this year? in that week NL Central where the brewers are looking like they're going to sell the Cubs are you know the Cubs are maybe going to

make some noise of that division but is the door open for a Cardinal Boundsback? Yeah I definitely think so I think this is I think maybe the brewers are regretting saying that you know everyone's on the market since they've encouraged the Cardinals to make

some moves like signing Sunny Gray they also signed Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn Those are just kind of like filling out your rotation moves. They're not going to make a huge impact other than eating up some innings. And the Brewers are the kind of team that would sell everyone and then still win like 90 games and make the playoffs.

So yeah. So I could still see the Brewers being a competitive team. They know how to win games. Yeah, but I think with the Cardinals, I think Sunday Gray is an excellent move. Obviously, he really makes a difference plugging him into the front of that rotation.

It's a very nice value at three years 75. I think it's just a really nice contract because it's like, you know, let me talk about that, where Sunny Gray versus Aaronola is honestly like not a huge difference. Like, Nola is better for sure. And he's much, not by that much, but Nola got more than double Sunny Gray. So it's like, I'd probably rather have two and a half sunny grays rather than Aaronola. So I think that's a good contract. And compared to someone like Yabamoto where obviously Yaboboto's coming from Japan, so who knows

what kind of contract. he'll get. I think it's pretty hard to project, but I've heard 200 million is in the ballpark for what teams are going to be paying Yamamoto. So yeah, we might get to him later. Yeah. But sticking with the Cardinals, I think people have talked a lot about how bad they're pitching was last year, but also Irrado engulfedment underperformed. And I think bouncebacks for both of them, especially Irondola, who's still not really that old, like are sort of expected. Yeah. Yeah, I think I've, I honestly, I kind of forgot Aeronado and Goldschmidt, like, existed on this planet.

Like, they were, they're supposed to be, you know, there's Betts and Freeman on the Dodgers, there's Harper and Turner on the Phillies, and then there's Aeronado and Goldschmidt on the Cardinals. But, like, they are just, they're just no names at this point. So, well, just they'll have something to put. In 2022, they were one to an MVP, but last year they were just totally mediocre. Yeah. Yeah, that's, that's a wild turn. I forgot that they were one, two, an MVP

first and second on the same. And that can't happen very often for one team to have the top two MVP finishers in the same lineup. But, yeah, massive flops last year by them and by the whole Cardinals team. So you've also got, you know, Wilson Contriarist,

Brendan Donovan, you know, Tommy Edmund. They should have a good offense. They have some other pieces. Yeah, I think the offense really starts with those two guys. You get your big dogs out there playing, well, that is going to really drive an offense more than, you know, if some of the kind of, you know,

middle of the order guys can overachieve a little bit. That that certainly helps to, you know, make a full full one through nine lineup. But getting getting back to Yamamoto. So what I'm finding, I'm, I'm just seeing a lot of, a lot of news where it's like, the Yankee. Yankees are dead set on Yamamoto. Like, you know, this is their guy. And we kind of know that's how the Yankees operate. Like, when they pick a guy, they tend to get their guy. You know, they're not a team to get outbid, get bullied off of someone.

Like, so based on that, you would assume, all right, Yamamoto's going to go to the Yankees. But then there's also like 10 other teams who are like very interested actively pursuing Yamamoto. And like, it kind of feels like one of those situations where there's, you know, you know, like a job opening and, you know, 10 people apply and are all sure they're going to get it. And then, you know, thing, only one of them is going to get it. Like, there's only one Yamamoto. So, and you actually have like some news with the Yankees in Yamamoto, which could be bad news for their chances of getting in. Yeah.

So, um, Brian Cashman just said, I'm not going to tell you, he just said on that talk show. I'm not going to tell you, Scanton is going to be healthy since it's not going to happen. he's going to get injured. That's like part of his track record. So it's Cashman basically bad-mouthing Stan. And Stan has the same agent as Yamamoto, Joey Wolf. So Joey Wolf then responded to this Cashman copy saying, oh, I'm going to let all my agents know, you know,

you know, if you want to go play with the Yankees, you better be made of steel. So I think he even said something along the longs of, like, we're going to expect more money now from the Yankees, which isn't quite the way it works. If you kind of say you don't want to go to one, of the big markets, that's kind of going to reduce the overall demand since teams aren't going to aren't going to have to outbid the Yankees, but he seems to suggest, oh, Kashrin, if you want Yamamoto,

you're going to have to pay more now, since he really doesn't want to go to you anymore because of those comments he made. So basically, Cashman started up a beef with Yamaboto's agent, and really, that's just got to be a bad call in Cashman. Like, what are you doing, you know, as a general manager, you know, leader in an organization, you just, like, should be pretty standard. policy to never talk negatively of your players. Yeah, especially a player who was injury prone

before you treated for him. It's not like Stan suddenly became injury prone on me. He's kind of roasting himself by criticizing Stan's performance on the Yankees. He has been much worse when he's on the field. He hasn't been anything close to that elite player he was on the Marlins, but the injuries were already there when he was on the Marlins. But, but yeah, I mean,

behind the Yankees, there's the Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants. They're all potential Yamamoto suitors. Even their Rangers and Phillies are, you know, heard rumors. I doubt the Phillies would got him. Not that re-signed law. Yeah, that probably puts them out. Yeah. But, you know, I think if you're the Rangers, you know,

what better way to come off the World Series than to make a statement and say, hey, like, we're serious about winning this thing again. So you could see that. And for sure, the Dodgers. Like, I think the Dodgers are front runners for Otadi. So if they get Otadi, that'll put them out of Yamamoto for sure. I imagine that you get the two Japanese guys. That would be, that would be kind of crazy if they got both of them.

But I don't think there's any way they're going to spend, what, 700 million on two players? Maybe more. Yeah, what is the Yamamoto projection? What's he going to get? I think he's going to get well over 200 million. Over, but he's young. Also, I can't really get. behind that because it's one of those things where it's like hey like chances first of all he's

never played at MLB so it's a total wild card honestly it's like chances of him being better than sunny gray not guaranteed like yeah these guys flops sometimes big frig agents flopped guys from overseas flop so and he's both right now and so it's like you know if i'm the cardinals just side sunny gray for three years 75 billion and then i see you know the yankees pay yabomoto 300 billion I'm kind of thinking that we probably farmed because, like, you know, they might be similar players. Gray might even play better than Yamamoto. No luck could easily be better than Yamaboto. It's just like, I think people get too excited about the overseas players, you know, because we've never seen them play, they assume they're going to play great, but that's kind of a fallacy.

Yeah, and players do not age at the same rate. So you can't say, oh, Sunny Gray's 35 and Yamato's 27 or so so like therefore like they're both gonna like be washed up at 37 but like the Clayton Kershaw Charlie Morton just in Verlinder have been able to be good way past the expected fall off and other players kind of fall apart way before

yeah I think like as as like the science of training and stuff gets ridiculously nuanced and teams are spending millions of dollars on like personal trainers and things like that I think players are starting to longer. I think we're beginning to see that. And I would expect that trend to continue because now like, you know, there's just a lot more data out there on how to make your body last. And so especially for pitchers, you know, they used to just fall apart pretty quickly just because, you know,

it's such a violent motion to do like a hundred times every five days just to throw a, throw a baseball like 90 miles an hour. But now these guys are lasting, you know, they're staying fresh. Obviously, you know, older guys pretty much always lose velocity, but, but still, they're staying aggrowing with it, finding new pitches. And maybe as they, what they lose in velocity, they gain back in experience and, you know, knowledge of the game. So, from being older. So, yeah, obviously, Yamamoto's young. He's exciting, but not worth 300 billion. I don't even know if he's worth 200 million, but he's going to get that for sure. He'll get at least 200 billion, almost guaranteed. Yeah, so one other piece of news was the Diamondbacks

trading for Eugene Nios Juarez from the Mariners. He had one year left before a free agency, and so the Diamondbacks are going to pick up his $11 million for this year, and they gave up almost nothing. They gave up like a low-level prospect and like a backup catcher. Yeah, I like that play. I think it's like a really solid value play where it's like worst case scenario, he's not very good. And it's, uh, all right, 11 mil, a few, like, not a whole lot of players who you sent over to Seattle, you know, no biggie. But best case scenario, he hits 50 hovers again.

So, you know, he's done that before. He had 49 in 2019. Yeah. Yeah. So 20. Yeah. Anytime where you've had a guy who's had that kind of year, you always feel like there's a chance that comes back.

And obviously that's that's four years, five years ago at this point. But, you know, if he's still got that in him, could be a massive win of a deal. Yeah, that was the juiced ball year. It was almost like something up with the ball that year. Yeah, but still, it kind of reminds me of when the Yankees got Chris Carter for a single season. And he was coming off a 40 homer season. And they got him for like $5 million. And he ended up being absolutely worthless and stuff.

But it, like, wasn't that big a deal. It's like, all right. Yeah. He was a failure. We spent $5 million on that. But, like, really, you know, that's just kind of lunch money for Brian Cashman. And so it's like, even when it doesn't work out, it's just not that bad. So good move from the debacks.

Yeah, and they did need a third basement. Yeah. That was a terrible position for them last year. Especially a team like the debacks. You know, they're not a huge market team. Coming off a pennant, you know, they should make some noise this year. I was like, you know, they got to deal with a Dodger. as always, but, you know, we'll see what they're able to do.

And in the next three weeks, I would say, be ready for the Otani news to drop. Because winter meetings are in start of December, and I think it's likely that managers will be on the phone with him and his agents and stuff there. And so I would expect Otani to be signed, you know, the moment we've all been waiting for in the coming week. So some exciting stuff to watch out for there. So be sure to stay tuned in the coming weeks here on total bases on Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM.