WSJ What’s News - IEA Proposes Record Release of Oil Reserves

Episode Date: March 11, 2026

A.M. Edition for Mar. 11. The International Energy Agency is considering releasing 400 million barrels of oil into the market to counter the surge in crude prices from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. WSJ reporters Matt Dalton and Rebecca Feng explain why the strategic release would be unprecedented and how it could drive oil prices up, instead of down. Plus, we look at how some of the biggest hedge funds got caught off guard by the war. And WSJ’s Alex Leary has the scoop on why Trump is obsessed with these $145 shoes. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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A key day for oil markets as countries consider a massive release from their strategic reserves, plus how some of the biggest hedge funds got caught off guard by the war. These are considered sort of the first-in-class hedge funds in the industry, and they each lost a billion or more for the week. And the AI boom continues powering up shares of Oracle. It's Wednesday, March 11th. I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

It's the scoop that has the business world talking. The journal's Matthew Dalton reports that the International Energy Agency has proposed its largest ever release of oil reserves in an effort to tame a recent run-up in crude prices with a decision expected today. To discuss this potentially historic market intervention, we've got Matt on the line with us from Paris today. Matt, give us the details of this proposal and how it came about. So the headline figure is a release of 400 million barrels of oil onto the market by the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency. It would be the largest release by quite a bit that the agency has ever coordinated, more than double what it put onto the market in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is meant to address a scenario that is kind of what the IEA was created for, which is a catastrophic event on the oil market.

And that's what is happening right now with the near complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian attacks. This came together very quickly because IA member countries were pretty surprised by the whole war itself. They weren't involved in the planning. This is a U.S. Israeli operation. And they had to scramble to put together a plan, which they have. It's not a done deal yet. We'll see what happens today. You keep mentioning IEA member countries. There are several dozen of them, but presumably these reserves are not evenly distributed. Whose oil are we mostly talking about here that would

hit the market? The biggest share will come from the United States and its strategic petroleum reserve as the largest oil consumer of the 32 member countries. It thus has the biggest responsibility to put oil onto the market. The U.S. quantity will be less than half of what ultimately hits the market, but it'll be close to half. And Japan is also a big consumer, and thus we'll need to put a significant quantity of oil onto the market. The big European economy is Germany, UK, France will also be big suppliers onto the market. Rebecca, just before we hit record, Matt confirmed that the release we're talking about here could be 400 million barrels. You said, oh, wow, tell us about a release of this magnitude.

What would it mean for oil markets? It's significant because previously colleagues and I did calculations on just how much reserve IEA members have. They have about 1.2 billion barrels in public stocks and another 600 million in commercial inventory. So that would, in total, 1.8 billion barrels would roughly last about 124 days with the lost supply from the Gulf. So now if they're looking at a potential 400 million barrels of release, that would back of envelope calculation. That would probably satisfy about 30 days of lost supply from the Gulf. It shows the magnitude of the problem. And kind of looking back on Price Action, this morning we're seeing Brent and WTI both climbing. It kind of reminds me of an earlier incident when March 2022, when IEA released

barrels during the beginning of the Russian-Ukraine war, Price actually rose as well in the first week after the decision. And that's kind of a sign of like traders looking at the numbers and thinking, oh my, like maybe the situation is actually much worse than we thought. And that's why the price initially jumped, and we're kind of seeing the same so far this morning. Okay, I hear what you're saying. An intervention this severe, maybe signals to the market, things are worse than many people realize, so that could explain the price reaction we're seeing. But there are other jitters we're seeing.

Supply related concerns coming out of the Gulf this morning as well. Yeah. So when it comes to the oil prices of the current moment, I think the most important news is still whether the straight of hormones is open or not, and the strata hormones is still paralyzed, Just last night we had news that U.S. officials said that Iran has placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz over the recent days. That's quite an escalation meant to shut down this waterway. We also have reporting that U.S. forces said that they've destroyed 16 Iranian mine laying vessels. And then just this morning in London, UK Maritime trade operations said that two other cargo ships have

reported damage near the Strait of Hormuz. So that would definitely dissuade other tankers from crossing. Matt, that brings us to today. I'm curious when we're expecting a decision on this possible release. And given that you mentioned, such a large share of this would come from the U.S. anyway, I mean, if for whatever reason this doesn't move forward, could the U.S. just act unilaterally? So the governing board of the IA is expected to meet today to decide on this. Generally, these matters require unanimous consent for there to be a coordinated release. Yeah, the U.S., any country, for that matter, can go ahead and release stocks on its own. The IEA is a body sets guidelines for its members, but these aren't binding necessarily on what countries can

do or not do in terms of the oil market. For it to be a coordinator, release, all of the members really have to act in concert together. A big question going forward is what the timing of these releases will be, how frequent they will be over how many days, that will have a big impact on the actual situation in the oil market. This kind of is the first step in the whole process is they're signaling the overall magnitude, but then we're going to be working on getting more details about what the actual flow of oil onto the market will be. I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal reporters Matthew Dalton and Rebecca Fung. Matt, Rebecca, thank you both so much.

Thanks, Luke. Glad to be here. And we want to know how volatile energy and commodity prices are affecting you or your business. Are you rethinking your plans today next week or later this year? Is your bottom line being impacted? What about your pricing strategy? Let us know by sending a voice note to WNPOD at WSJ. or by leaving us a voicemail at 212-416-4328.

And however you choose to get in touch, just make sure to include your full name and your location so that we can use your comments on the show. Markets have been increasingly volatile since the conflict in the Middle East began 12 days ago. And as we report, some of the world-saviest investors have been caught out. Markets reporter Caitlin McCabe says that major hedge funds like Citadel, 0.72, and Millennium suffered billions in losses following a sudden spike in bond yields. These are considered sort of the first-in-class hedge funds in the industry, and they each lost a billion or more for the week. I think they've been surprised by two things, the strength and severity of the response from Iran, and also how much it's choked off oil markets. And so that has really

turned on its head these macroeconomic assumptions that hedge funds had going into this year, investors were expecting inflation to continue to moderate for central banks to cut interest rates. And now with $100 oil, you start asking, is inflation going to rise again? And as a result, that's disrupted some bond market bets that hedge funds had. So before last week, hedge funds were having a really strong start to the year. Through the end of February for the year, they were up more than 3%. And now, of course, we have these losses last week to consider. In other Iran news this morning, authorities in the UAE say that four people have been wounded after a pair of Iranian drones fell near Dubai International Airport. Despite the incident, flights are continuing to and from the airport, which is the world's busiest for international travel.

While speaking of travel, the conflict and high oil prices may be driving up airfares, but travel demand remains resilient. United Airlines says it recently recorded its highest revenue booking day ever, signaling a robust application. for both domestic and international flights. CEO Scott Kirby attributed this to a strong U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Boeing shares have slipped after the planemaker flagged delays to some deliveries of its 737 max jets. The company found scratched wiring and undelivered planes, tracing the issue to a machining error. The FAA is investigating the issue. The delay complicates Boeing's efforts to convince regulators it's improved its safety issues after a door plug incident. in 2024. And Oracle shares have rallied more than 7% in off-hours trading. That's after the cloud

computing company posted higher quarterly revenue and raised its sales outlook, saying that companies have a growing need for cloud services to train and run AI. Democrat Sean Harris and Republican Clay Fuller are advancing to a runoff in Georgia, following a special election yesterday to fill Marjorie Taylor Green's vacated house seat. Green was one of Trump's most vocal supporters in the MAGA movement, but resigned in January after falling out with the president. Trump endorsed Fuller in a crowded field that included nine Republicans, and the district attorney said that the traditionally conservative district still backs the president's policies. They want to know who President Trump was endorsing in this race, and that's why they came out in droves to support him, because they know they want an America First fighter on Capitol Hill fighting for his policies. Meanwhile, Harris, a cattle farmer and retired general, said he wasn't concerned about Trump intervening in the race.

And guess what? His candidate came in second place. And I'm a firm believer that when we get on head to head come April 7th, you're going to be talking to me again because we're going to win it. The winner will serve out the remaining months of Green's term. And finally, what does a president gift to his staff and White House visitors? Some choose pens and cufflings. FDR chose keychains, and President Trump likes to give out coins, Sharpies, and photos of himself. But our White House reporter Alex Leary says that lately, he's been giving away his favorite pair of shoes. Trump started wearing Flauchamp shoes sometime late in 2025. He was telling AIDS that his feet were hurrying after a long day and tried out a couple of different brands and settled on Flauchheim,

which is a venerable American brand. It was formed in 18. in Chicago. It's sort of seen as a sort of a lower end or a mid-level shoe. They cost about $145. According to the White House, he pays out of his own pocket. He's been known to ask in cabinet meetings, did he get the shoes? And he's also been sort of guessing shoe sizes, looking down to people's feet and you may be a 10. And he has a stack of shoes in an office outside the Oval Office, but he'll have an aide go and just order some from Flauch on him. referring to the shoes of female White House officials said that all the boys have them and noting that they've created a sense of obligation on the part of those lucky enough to receive them.

One of the real funny thing about it is that AIDS in the White House, they have these, and they're afraid not to wear him around Trump because, you know, he gave them to him and he's looking. So it's sort of a funny thing, even though they didn't quite like the shoe or if it doesn't fit that well. We reported that one cabinet official joke that he put his Louis Vuitton's up on the shelf, that he had to wear the floor shams instead. But it's just a funny kind of slice of life from the White House and Trump who never ceases to surprise. And that's it for what's news for this Wednesday morning. Today's show was produced by Hattie Moyer and Daniel Bach.

Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff, and I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.