WSJ What’s News - Iran and the U.S. Remain Far Apart Despite Cease-Fire Deal

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

P.M. Edition for April 8. The U.S.- Iran ceasefire is fragile, with divisions over the Strait of Hormuz and other key issues. WSJ national security reporter Shelby Holliday explains what’s at stake in the Middle East. Stocks rally and oil prices plunge after the ceasefire. WSJ markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang tells us about the latest TACO trade. Plus, economists are getting worse at forecasting one of the most important economic indicators. WSJ economics reporter Matt Grossman tells us what’s throwing off their models, and why it matters for investors. Imani Moise hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When West Jet first took flight in 1996, the vibes were a bit different. People thought denim on denim was peak fashion, inline skates were everywhere, and two out of three women rocked, the Rachel. While those things stayed in the 90s, one thing that hasn't is that fuzzy feeling you get when WestJet welcomes you on board. Here's to Westjetting since 96. Travel back in time with us and actually travel with us at westjet.com slash 30 years. Despite a ceasefire, the U.S. and Iraq, Iran aren't on the same page.

And Iran is keeping a tight grip on the straight of our moves. We don't know what Iran plans to do. And Iran has shown that it is able to hold the straight hostage and use it as a bargaining chip. Plus, news of the ceasefire sends U.S. stock markets soaring and oil prices plunging. And the key to losing more weight on GLP-1s might be in your DNA. It's Wednesday, April 8th. I'm Imani-Mau-Ez for the Wall Street Journal, filling in for Alex Osala.

This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. The U.S. and Iran reached the ceasefire agreement, but it's clear that the two sides remain far apart on many issues. Since the deal was announced, there's been conflicting reports about the status of the Strait of Burmuz and continued strikes in other parts of the Middle East. WSJ National Security reporter Shelby Holiday is here to walk us through the latest. So where does the ceasefire stand now and what's the next step? Well, today's been really interesting because from the U.S. side, it's been a huge victory lap. We've heard from press secretary Caroline Levitt. We've heard from the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsseth.

And what they're saying is that what we set out to do has been accomplished. And now we're trying to hammer out a ceasefire. There are still some very important questions lingering, namely what Iran will do with its nuclear material, whether ships will be able to freely navigate the Strait of Hormuz, who will lead Iran. So next step here is that the White House is dispatching the vice president, special envoy Steve Whitkoff, and President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to Islamabad in Pakistan for a round of negotiations. And I think in the next few days we might have a little more clarity on where things stand. And Iran's saying that participating in this weekend's talks hinges on a ceasefire in Lebanon. But Israel's continuing to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So what happens next? Yeah, that's a key sticking point, actually. So Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel just came out and said, the ceasefire. has nothing to do with Lebanon. We will continue to go after Hezbollah forcefully. Hezbollah is a proxy group that Iran supports. And we don't know how Iran will react to that. And then there's a straight of her moves. How soon could it return to normal traffic? We don't know what Iran plans to do. And Iran has shown that it is able to hold the straight hostage and use it as a bargaining chip. One thing that was interesting in the White House press conference today was that press secretary Caroline Levitt said what Iran is doing and saying publicly does not match what they are doing.

and saying privately. We have seen an uptick of traffic in the straight today, and I will reiterate the president's expectation and demand that the strait of Hermuz is reopened immediately, quickly, and safely. The White House is that it's reopening. I think we're going to need to look at a lot of shipping data to verify that and see if that's actually true. But a big question lingering over the strait is whether Iran will be able to charge some sort of toll. And that really changes the dynamic in the Middle East and in oil markets, if Iran is able to say, hey, you know, if you want to come through the straight-of-form moves, you need to pay us $1 million. That's something Iran would love to do.

That is something the U.S. likely will not accept. So we'll see what happens with the straight-of-war moves. It's still very much an open question. And what about the energy facilities in the region? Energy facilities got hit really hard in this war, and they'll need to be rebuilt. And in some cases, it will take years to rebuild what was destroyed. So that will have an effect on energy markets. In the future, there is a lot of damage that was done in these five weeks, and it will take a long time to

rebuild. That was WSJ National Security reporter Shelby Holiday. Thanks, Shelby. Thank you. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting show officials are getting more concerned about slow progress toward lowering inflation to its 2% goal. And the war in the Middle East is elevating the risks. A majority of officials still continue to pencil in at least one interest rate cut this year. Wall Street analysts seem to be getting worse at forecasting one of the most important economic indicators. They undershot job gains by 75,000 in January, predicted an increase in February when job numbers fell sharply, and last month they struck out again, missing the mark by more than 100,000. WSJ economics reporter Matt Grossman joins us now to explain why economists say

forecasting jobs numbers has never been harder. So, Matt, why is it getting more difficult to forecast jobs? Yeah, there are a few things happening at once. The economy is changing quite a bit. That's both from the big immigration crackdown from the Trump administration, the uncertainty because of tariffs, and more recently the war in Iran. On top of that, the survey that the government uses to figure out how many jobs are being created is not quite working as well as it used to because fewer companies are responding to it. And the government also changed its formula earlier this year, and economists are still struggling to figure out how that's going to affect the numbers. Last year, they did a pretty good job on the average month.

They missed maybe by about 30 or 40,000 jobs in a typical month, which is pretty decent. This year, the average miss has been over 100,000. Why do the accuracy of these estimates matter to investors? It matters a lot if you're a certain kind of investor who is making big bets on how the market's going to move on a given day. If there's a really positive economic report that could move the stock and bond prices quite a bit because it gives a lot of updated information very quickly about how the economy is doing and also importantly how the Federal Reserve is likely to respond next. That makes a lot of sense. Is there something similar going on with other data releases like inflation, for example? So far, the inflation forecasts haven't been nearly as difficult.

and that could be because inflation just hasn't changed much over the past year or two. We've kind of been floating around this range where consumer prices over the past 12 months have been going up by 2.5% to 3%. Of course, the war in Iran has lifted oil prices quite a bit. We'll see how much that has played into other price increases as well. And we'll see on Friday how well Wall Street has done at predicting exactly how big that increase is going to be. That was W.S.J economics reporter Matt Grossman. Thanks, Matt. Thank you. Coming up, a big market rally after the ceasefire news, why flights are getting more expensive,

and META's answer to AI rivals. That's after the break. Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my head of office has a forever center. An IG Private Wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IGPrivatewealth.com.

Major U.S. stock indexes rallied today. The Dow shot up by more than a thousand points at the open and stayed high, ending up 2.8%. Similarly, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 each rose more than 2.5%. Meanwhile, U.S. oil prices tumbled 16% to about $94 a barrel. Agreements to reopen the state of Bermuz would make a long-term energy shortage less likely. Fuel-intensive companies like airlines and cruises were some of the biggest gainers of the day. But the truce might be more fragile than market reactions imply. W.S.J. Markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lang pulled her sources on what they're paying attention to now.

So, Hannah, are market still on edge, as you said yesterday? Or is this the start of a long-term rebound? Today we saw pretty significant rallies. Stocks are up a ton. Investors are feeling pretty relieved to hear the news of this ceasefire. I think in terms of what happens from here, that's the big question. And that depends on the negotiations between the United States and Iran. And it depends on the flow of oil through the Strait of Formuz. Some people are calling what happened today the Taco Trade. Can you tell us what that means and does this market rally qualify? Yeah, I would definitely say it qualifies. We've heard the word, Taco thrown around a lot today on our phone calls with investors. The phrase taco, it kind of dates back to the Liberation Day tariffs last year that also sent stocks tumbling in April of 2025. And it's this acronym that means Trump always chickens out. And that same dynamic is kind of what we're seeing today. If you were one of the investors betting that this whole thing would kind of blow over and stocks

would eventually rebound, I mean, you look kind of vindicated today, right? We're seeing a pretty sharp move upward. As I should mention, this isn't kind of as big of a quote-unquote taco moment as we have seen in the past. Today's taco trade didn't pack as much of a punch as it did. A year ago, when we saw even more massive gains in the major U.S. stock indexes after, you know, Trump paused those tariffs. Where does today's rally put us for the year? Have we erased all of those losses that we saw when the war began? We haven't necessarily snapped back enough to eke out a positive gain this year to do. date. So all three major U.S. stock indexes are still down slightly in 2026. We need to make sure

that this rally has legs before we end up in positive territory for the year so far. And I think for the rally to have legs, investors need to feel confident that the ceasefire has legs. Yes, exactly. That was W.S.J. Markets reporter Hannah Aaron Lang. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. Today, Delta Airlines reported a $289 million loss for the first quarter, mostly due to the soaring cost of fuel. The airlines plan for offsetting higher fuel costs, charging customers more for tickets and luggage, and cutting back on overnight and midweek flights.

Delta CEO Ed Bastion says the airline's customers are still booking flights and he expects them to keep at it. The higher-end consumer, the premium consumer, is candidly immune or becoming more immune to the headlines and not delaying their investment in the experienced economy waiting to see what the next headline's going to be. Delta shares rose nearly 4%. And in tech, Meta platforms today announced its first major new artificial intelligence model

in over a year, called Muse Spark. Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic have been releasing models at an accelerating pace. Meta has spent billions of dollars on hiring AI talent to catch up. The owner of Facebook and Instagram says the model outscored Google's Gemini on some internal tests. It was also competitive with other industry leaders. Metastock closed up about 6.5%. Turns out how many pounds you can drop using weight loss drugs like Wigovie and Zepound may depend on your DNA. A new study from 23 and Me found that

a specific gene variant can lead to about three extra pounds of weight loss, while the median weight loss in the study for people on the drugs was about 25 pounds. Doctors say, insight like these could eventually guide personalized treatment and potentially save people money. 23 and Me filed for bankruptcy protection last year. Testing for a predictive, of jeans could be a way for the company to salvage its business. And that's what news for this Wednesday afternoon. Additional sound, courtesy of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Today's show was produced by Anthony Bansy and Alexis Green

with supervising producer Tali Arbell. I'm Imani-Mauiz for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.