WSJ What’s News - Oil Falls After Israeli Strikes Avoid Iranian Energy Targets

Episode Date: October 28, 2024

A.M. Edition for Oct. 28. Brent-crude prices slide after Israel steers clear of Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in attacks over the weekend. Plus, the WSJ’s Carrie Keller-Lynn explains what’s lending momentum to Israel’s once-fringe movement to reoccupy Gaza. And the WSJ’s Justin Lahart looks at why at a pivotal moment, U.S. economic data will be a mess. Luke Vargas hosts.  Sign up for the WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Robert Half research indicates nine out of ten hiring managers are having difficulty hiring. Robert Half is here to help. Our recruiting professionals utilize our proprietary AI to connect businesses with highly skilled talent. At Robert Half, we know talent. Visit roberthalf.com today. Oil prices drop after Israel launches an attack on Iran calibrated to avoid an escalation. Plus, Israel's once-fringe movement to reoccupy Gaza picks up momentum. What's really shifted now is that voices advocating for Gaza settlement are not being publicly shut down the top, like we saw in the beginning of the war.

And how hurricanes Helene and Milton could distort key economic data just before the election. It's Monday, October 28th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. With just one full week of campaigning left before Election Day, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are starting to deliver their closing arguments in a race that remains a dead heat. Last night, Trump took the stage at a raucous Madison Square Garden where he addressed thousands of supporters and vowed to pull off a White House comeback. And I'd like to begin by asking a very simple question.

Are you better off now than you were four years ago? The six-hour rally included appearances from Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as comedian and podcaster Tony Hinchcliffe, whose opening act, in which he likened Puerto Rico to a floating island of garbage, drew rebuke from the Trump campaign, with a senior advisor saying the joke didn't reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign. The Harris campaign sought to create a split-screen moment out of the controversy, rolling out a plan to modernize the island's

energy grid, which Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny then shared on social media. Hinchcliffe hit back at those who criticized his comments on X, saying they had no sense of humor. Harris is due to continue her campaign blitz today in Ann Arbor, Michigan, before delivering her own closing argument tomorrow from the ellipse near the White House. Trump is due in Georgia today and Pennsylvania tomorrow. Iran is vowing to respond after Israel launched the most serious military strike on its soil in decades on Saturday, hitting missile manufacturing facilities and missile defense sites. The attack, a retaliation for a barrage of missiles that Iran fired at Israel on October

1st, avoided hitting nuclear and oil facilities, which Tehran had warned would bring a tough response. However, an Israeli official said the choice of targets still sent a strong message that Israel can hit anywhere in Iran. And speaking yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to keep attacking what he called the octopus of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Whoever hurts us, we hurt them. And this is the principle that guided us to this day.

And this is the principle that will guide us in the future as well. Oil is trading sharply lower today, following what was seen as the measured nature of Israel's response. The weekend attack comes as negotiators try to restart talks to end fighting in the region. On Sunday, Egypt's president proposed a two-day Gaza ceasefire in exchange for the release of four hostages. Separately, we report that US Israeli and Qatari officials are in Doha to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon,

reviving talks that had largely collapsed in recent months because Israel and Hamas didn't agree to terms for a permanent end to fighting. Voters in Japan have shaken up the country's political landscape, forcing new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to scramble to build a coalition to keep his job. The journal's Peter Lander says that while Ishiba is unlikely to make compromises that would change Japan's geopolitical orientation, markets are reacting to a potential monetary policy shift.

Peter Lander, Journalist, The New York Times, New York Times Prime Minister Ishiba, who just took office less than a month ago, was seen as potentially favoring tighter money, more cautious about spending to support the economy, and this was a downer for the stock market. So the prospect of a different prime minister or a prime minister who is more constrained as far as encouraging interest rates to rise, that could actually support markets. One of the parties that could join the ruling coalition is definitely eager to spend more, to lift wages, perhaps even reducing the consumption tax, which has been a big break on consumption in the last

few decades in Japan. So the possibility of more aggressive fiscal policy and looser monetary policy means in general the yen is going to fall and stocks are going to rise and that's what we saw in the market action today. With many communities still recovering from the destruction caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton, the storms are likely to wreak havoc on economic data too. The October jobs report is due out on Friday, just days before the election, and journal economics reporter Justin Layhart says it will be the first major snapshot of the economy where the storm's effects will register.

Judging from state weekly jobless claims figures, damage estimates, and the record of past hurricanes, economists reckon Helene and Milton will reduce employment growth by upwards of 50,000 jobs. Economists also think the unemployment rate will be less affected. The Labor Department will likely provide estimates of how hurricanes affected the data. But because the jobs report comes out just four days before the election, any nuances might get drowned out by campaigns campaigns efforts to spin the numbers. Another factor weighing on the October numbers is the continuing strike at Boeing. Overall, economists polled by the journal expect the report to show the economy adding 110,000 jobs,

compared with 254,000 in September. And McDonald's and food safety officials have ruled out beef as a source of an E. coli outbreak linked to the chain's Quarter Pounders, but are still looking at onions served on the burgers as a possible culprit. McDonald's says it will begin selling Quarter Pounders again in the coming week where it had pulled the burgers from its menu, but that for now its restaurants will hold the onions in areas affected by the outbreak. Coming up, Journal reporter Kerry Keller-Lynn on how a movement to reoccupy Gaza with Jewish

settlers and soldiers, once seen as out of the question, is now being embraced by more mainstream figures. We've got that story after the break. Robert Half Research indicates 9 out of 10 hiring managers are having difficulty hiring. for the break. No Talent. Visit roberthalf.com today. In Israel, a once-fringe idea driven by the country's extreme religious right to reoccupy and resettle Gaza is gaining momentum. Though polls show that most Israelis continue to oppose the idea, a year after the October 7th attacks, more mainstream politicians are saying that only a constant Israeli presence in the Strip after the war can prevent such attacks in

the future. And joining me now from Tel Aviv is Wall Street Journal reporter Kerry Keller-Lynne. Kerry, this idea of resettling Gaza has been politically taboo for a long time, as you write. What is changing now then? Kerry Keller-Lynne, Wall Street Journal Reporter taboo for a long time as you write. What is changing now then? Absolutely. What's really shifted now is that voices advocating for Gaza settlement are not being publicly shut down the top, like we saw in the beginning of the war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made this position clear at the outset of the war. He said that

there will be no Israeli resettlement of Gaza. His defense minister routinely has made this clear. However, since the June exit of more mainstream politicians from the wartime government, there has been sort of no checking of more extreme far-right voices that Netanyahu's fragile coalition relies upon. And the consequences that talk about resettlement is discussed in a much more open manner. And there is no discussion of a clear plan for the day after in Gaza and how to end the war. And in this vacuum, this idea is percolating. Nat. So take us into this idea and sort of what it might entail were it to be pulled

off. I guess that's a two-parter because there's an operational element to it, but there's also a political element to it. It would require Israel shifting a long-standing position. Danielle Pletka Absolutely. The resettlement of Gaza would be a huge undertaking, not least of which for the two million Palestinians who call it home. It is also currently illegal under Israeli law. So Israeli law would need to be changed to make this happen. There would also need to be a long-term Israeli military presence in Gaza should Jewish settlers return there. There would be frictions and

perhaps more of a fertile ground for any sort of insurgency that could continue. This would be a massive shift that would likely also further isolate Israel as Israel settlements in the West Bank and its former settlements in Gaza are considered illegal under international law by many authorities. Right. And are we hearing from various countries about this, allies of Israel like the United States? And I have to ask, of course, what we're hearing from Palestinian voices. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was just in Tel Aviv and his team did make it very clear that the US is against any sort of resettlement of Gaza. And obviously Israel's international allies and countries that are not Israel's allies

have been very clear that they are against resettlement of Gaza. Palestinians have been vehemently against this idea from the beginning. Palestinians were very against Gaza settlements when they existed for almost 35 years ahead of Israel's 2005 disengagement from the strip. And so there is intense, intense pressure for Israel not to change its policy and to not resettle Gaza with Jewish Israelis. Nat. Is the fact that Israel evicted Jewish settlers from Gaza part of the reason we are hearing some folks saying they want to go back and live there. I'm just curious if you could talk a little bit more about who these Israelis

are and their motivations for wanting to live there. Lauren Henry There are about two broad groups of Jewish Israelis who support settlement. There is the far right vanguard, which believes in Jewish settlements for both security and because they believe that Gaza is part of a historic biblical religious Israel and there's a religious imperative to hold Jewish sovereignty over the land. There are also Israelis who are more security settlers who believe that Israel needs to have Jewish presence in Gaza in order to be a bulwark against militancy. So when Israel uprooted all of its settlements in 2005, there

were many people who saw this as an expulsion rather than a disengagement and who have held this torch for the past 20 years and they now see an opening in the fact that Israel's in Gaza, which would have been one of the biggest hurdles to resettling is Israel actually putting forces back in. They think now is the time to push on the issue and they believe that through small and consistent acts that that might change reality. forces back in, they think now is the time to push on the issue. And they believe that through small and consistent acts that that might change reality. Nat. And have either of those groups articulated whether they envision Palestinians being displaced by new settlers? Is there any clarity there?

Laurence Yes, the far right says that they support voluntary resettlement of Palestinians. Ideally, they would like Palestinians to leave Gaza or to live under Israeli authority in some sort of way that is wholly unpalatable to Palestinians. This is a vision that is incompatible with a two-state solution. It would really be a death knell to a two-state solution. And there are many reasons why people are very, very concerned that even the fact that it's being discussed more openly is happening right now. I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal reporter, Keri Keller-Lynn. Keri, thank you

so much for bringing us this story. Thank you. And that's it for What's News for Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bach and Kate Bullivant with supervising producer Christina Rocca. And I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening. Balance your trading strategy by adding futures. CME Group helps you manage risk and capture opportunities in all market environments. Capitalize on around-the-clock access to highly liquid global futures and options markets

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