WSJ What’s News - U.S. Jobs Growth Slows, Rocking Markets, Fueling Bets on Big Rate Cut

Episode Date: August 2, 2024

P.M. Edition for Aug. 2. The U.S. is still adding jobs, but no longer at a red-hot pace. That sent markets into a tailspin, and economics reporter Justin Lahart says an interest rate cut in September now looks all but guaranteed in order to steer clear of recession. And WSJ reporter Collin Eaton tells us why Chevron plans to move its global headquarters from Texas to California. Plus, freed Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich speaks to the plight of political prisoners still detained in Russia. Pierre Bienaimé hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Conditions apply. Visit rbc.com slash student offers. Freed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich speaks about the political prisoners still detained in Russia. And America is still adding jobs, but no longer at a red hot pace. Right now for the Fed, the concern is concern is that they've been too late, that they should have cut rates already, and they're going to be in a situation where they're trying to get back

ahead of the curve on the economy and preventing a serious downturn. Plus, the oil giant Chevron calls it quits in California. Hello, Texas. It's Friday, August 2nd. I'm Pierre Bienemé for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

As we've been reporting, our wrongfully convicted colleague, Evan Gershkovich, arrived in Texas today after landing in Maryland late last night. The Wall Street Journal reporter and others had been imprisoned by the Kremlin and were released in an exchange for Russians, including a convicted murderer held in the U.S. and Europe. Speaking on the tarmac last night, Evan talked about the political prisoners he met while

behind bars and said he hoped to do something about them in the future. Basically everybody I sat with is a political prisoner, and nobody knows them publicly. They have various political beliefs, so they're not all connected with Navalny supporters, which I think everybody knows about them. One of the prisoners released was Paul Whelan, the longest serving American deemed wrongfully detained in Russia. The former U.S. Marine was arrested by Russian officers in 2018 and expressed gratitude for the welcome he received on the tarmac by President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Getting off the plane, seeing the president, the vice president, that was nice. It was a good homecoming. So looking forward to seeing my family down here and just recuperating from five years,

seven months, and five days of just absolute nonsense by the Russian government. Meanwhile, in Russia, President Vladimir Putin greeted the eight Russian citizens who returned home yesterday on a red carpet as part of the biggest East-West prisoner swap since the Cold War. In the West, they were seen as spies, hackers, smugglers, and hired assassins. In Moscow, they were greeted as heroes and promised state medals. Former President Donald Trump called the prisoner swap a victory for Russia's president. Trump claimed he would have made a better deal if he were in the White House.

The deal for the release of Gershkovich and the others involved 24 prisoners in at least six countries. It came together after months of negotiations at the highest levels of government in the U.S., Russia, and Germany. But what message does the deal send to autocrats who increasingly embrace a strategy of hostage diplomacy? You can hear all about that on this Sunday's special episode of What's News. Coming up is the U.S. economy starting to slow down. We look at what the latest jobs numbers indicate after the break. Summer is like a cocktail.

It has to be mixed just right. Start with a handful of great friends. Now add your favorite music. And then, finally, add Bacardi Rum. Shake it together. And there you have it. The perfect summer mix. Bacardi.

Do what moves you. Live passionately. Drink responsibly. Copyright 2024. Bacardi. It's trade dress and the bat device are trademarks of Bacardi and Company Limited. Rum 40% alcohol by volume. Job growth in the U.S. slowed sharply last month, and the unemployment rate rose to its

highest level since 2021. The Labor Department reported today that employers added 114,000 jobs in July, missing expectations. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%. The number of jobs the economy has been adding each month is still historically strong, but has been trending down. Combined with the rising unemployment rate, it suggests the labor market could be on its way to a weakness. Justin Lehart covers the economy for the Wall Street Journal.

Justin, what do these numbers tell us? These numbers are a real indication that the job market is cooling, and it could be cooling faster than the Federal Reserve would like. There's always a risk that a job market losing strength can quickly turn into a job market that is gathering weakness and that's where a recession starts. So right now for the Fed, the concern is that they've been too late that they should have cut rates already and they're going to be in a situation where they're trying to get back ahead of the curve on the economy and preventing a serious downturn. Are there any other warning signs indicating a slowdown? We've seen that initial jobless claims have started to drift up, not in an alarming way,

but they are moving higher. The pace of layoffs has been incredibly low, yet on Thursday we saw Intel warning and saying that it would cut 15,000 jobs. More announcements like that would turn up the concern. I've also seen the pace of hiring has really slowed markedly. The reason that the job market is still adding jobs despite this drop in hiring is that layoffs and other sort of separations have also been incredibly low. But that just means that companies aren't struggling to add workers like they were earlier coming out of the pandemic.

And how did markets react immediately after this news, after these numbers from the Labor Department? Yeah, this was not a good report. Markets were already going to be down sharply before the report came out, partly because of that Intel news But we saw a sharp decline in stocks. We also saw that Treasury yields Fell sharply the the 10-year Treasury Treasury yield is now well below 4% You also saw a volatility measure the the so-called fear gauge that jumped as well

volatility measure, the so-called fear gauge that jumped as well. So the market and probably the Fed has gone from worrying about inflation to worrying about the job market. Up until the job report came out, the expectation was that the Fed would be cutting rates by a quarter point when they meet in September. Now those expectations are set at a half point. So people think that the Fed is going to be more aggressive in trying to stem any weakness in the economy. And you should point out, right, this is just one jobs report. It is possible that the next jobs report will show a rebound in job creation, will show a decline in the unemployment rate. That was the Wall Street Journal's Justin Lehart.

And how did the U.S. markets close on the back of that data? The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index suffered a correction, a drop of more than 10% from its recent high on July 10th, losing 2.4%. The S&P 500 declined 1.8%. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 900 points before pairing some of those losses to end down almost 611 points, or 1.5%. ExxonMobil reported one of its highest-ever profits for a second quarter today, $9.2 billion, or up 17% from a year ago.

The oil giant was bolstered by record output in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico and in the South American country of Guyana. But that wasn't the biggest oil news of the day. Chevron, which posted lower profits under analysts' expectations at $4.4 billion, said it plans to move its headquarters from San Ramon, California to Houston, Texas. The Wall Street Journal's Colin Eaton explains why Chevron is making the move after being based mainly in the Bay Area for more than 140 years.

COLIN EATON Houston is the capital of the US energy industry. And Chevron's been slowly moving employees into Houston for several years now. Chevron CEO Mike Worth said that California has levied many regulations that the company considers onerous on consumers and causes companies to hesitate in their investment spending in the state. There have been several companies over the past few years, including Tesla, that have moved from California to places like Austin.

And it has meant a migration to more red states. It's been an interesting trend to see and kind of comes on the heels of increased regulations in some of the blue states. In Arizona, the world's two most valuable mining companies are seeking to open a massive copper site. The project is called Resolution Copper. It's been under development by Rio Tinto and BHP Group for around 20 years, and it would supply as much as a quarter of the US's current demand for the metal, which is critical for an energy transition given it's used widely in electric cars and other renewable energy applications. But the project faces several lawsuits from a diverse

group of opponents. Fred Dvorak writes about the energy transition and climate for the Wall Street Journal, and she joins me now. Fred, what are some of the concerns being raised by opponents of this project? Fred Dvorak, Journalist, The Wall Street Journal There really is a broad group of environmentalists, mining reformers, and others who are part of lawsuits against the mine. One major concern is religious freedom, and that's largely raised by Apache groups in the area who say the area has been sacred to them for generations and that they hold various kinds of religious rights there.

Environmentalists are saying that it would recuge destruction that will result from the kind of mining that resolution is going to do. And there are concerns of what's gonna happen with the community's water, because copper mines use an awful lot of water. And then there's also the economic concerns. The mine will move out and the community will be left with nothing except a big pit in the

ground. So the opposition is still quite strong to this. And how has Resolution Copper responded? Resolution has said they've modified their plan for mining. They've made it smaller. They have exempted one very scenic ridge called Apache Leap. And they have forgone nearly 500 million tons of copper ore as a result. That's their, you know, their estimates. And they've been setting up a pretty big water monitoring system to try and keep on top of the water quality in the community. And they say that they're going

to run a very modern and efficient copper mine that uses less water than your regular copper mine. That was The Wall Street Journal's Fred Dvorak. From heat waves to flooding rains, there's been a lot of extreme weather this summer. How have you been affected by extreme weather? And what questions do you have about what companies are doing to counter those effects? Send a voice memo to wnpod at wsj.com or leave a voicemail with your name and location at 212-416-4328.

We might use it on the show. And finally, the beauty market is worth $430 billion globally. According to a semi-annual Taking Stock with Teens survey, American teenagers spend an average of about $340 a year on beauty products. But dermatologists say anti-aging products can have harsh effects on young skin. Consumer companies reporter Natasha Khan. Some of the most popular products among these younger users contain active ingredients, things like retinol or glycolic acid.

So these are things that can thin the top layer of the skin and cause peeling or irritation. Scientists are still studying the long-term impacts of this, but some girls have reported getting rashes after using creams or serums, and others have said that they've gone sunburned more easily. These are girls who follow influencers on TikTok or YouTube, and they watch videos that are like, get ready with me videos.

You know, they have other influencers that are telling them about their anti-aging creams and serums and the routine that they use. Retailers and product makers generally say they advise pre-teens and early teens to stick to gentler products, and they have largely resisted efforts to mandate product warnings or age requirements. And that's what's news for this week. Today's show was produced by Anthony Bansi.

I'm Pierre Bienemay. Our AM host is Luke Flourgous. Additional support this week from Francesca Fontana and Kate Bullivan. Michael Laval wrote our theme music. Our supervising producers are Michael Kosmides and Christina Rocca. Aisha Al-Muslim is our development producer. Scott Salloway and Chris Inslee are our deputy editors. And Falana Patterson is the Wall Street Journal's head of news audio.

Tomorrow, you can look out for our weekly Markets Wrap-Up, What's News in Markets. Then, on Sunday, as we said earlier, we'll be looking at the big questions about prisoner swaps and hostage diplomacy. That's in What's News Sunday. We'll be back with our regular show on Monday morning. Thanks for listening.