Yet Another Value Podcast - Accrued Interest's Simeon McMillan on $VSNT and the evolving media space

Episode Date: March 14, 2026

Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest about the shifting media landscape and recent industry restructurings. Simeon brings experience from inside major media companies, offering a perspective on how traditional networks, streaming platforms, and sports rights are shaping valuations across the sector. The conversation examines Comcast’s Versant spin-off, the positioning of assets like Bravo and other entertainment channels, and how investors should think about cable decline versus streaming economics. Andrew and Simeon also discuss incentives behind corporate restructurings, the quality of assets being separated, and what could drive value creation or destruction. Throughout the discussion they analyze media strategy, market narratives, and how investors can interpret these evolving industry dynamics.See a replay of my AlphaSense media webinar here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/paramounts-acquisition-of-wbd-and-the-reshaping-of-the-streaming-market/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_03-10-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-Netflix-WarnerBros__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:14] Simeon McMillan joins discussion[00:03:25] Guest media industry background[00:15:40] Hidden value in the golf assets[00:25:25] Future of CNBC[00:37:50] What happens in 2028[00:44:00] The future of sports rightsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

You don't need AI agents, which may sound weird coming from Service Now, the leader in AI agents. The truth is, AI agents need you. Sure, they'll process, predict, even get work done autonomously. But they don't dream, read a room, rally a team, and they certainly don't have shower thoughts, pivotal hallway chats, or big ideas. People do. And people, when given the best AI platform, they're freed up to do the fulfilling work they want to do. To see how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people, visit ServiceNow.com. You're about to listen to yet another value podcast with your host, me, Andrew Walker.

Today, we have got Simeon McMillan from Accrued Interest. It is a really fun podcast. Obviously, I'm dancing through a lot of media stuff right now because I'm prepping for my webinar with Alpha Sense on the media sector that I'm recording. I'm recording this March 9th. I'm recording that March 10th. It'll be live. When you listen to this, it'll be in the past.

But Simian comes on. We talked about it. He just did a fantastic piece on Burr-Sand. I thought he just nailed the story, nailed the risk, all that sort of stuff. So that's why we had them on, but it's a really fun conversation. How else can I recommend it except for this? At the end, I said, hey, let's just turn this into a quarterly thing and we'll jam through all the media sector once a quarter because I had a ton of fun. I think you're going to have a ton of fun.

Simeon brings a really unique perspective. He's worked on the inside at the highest levels of some big media company. So that gives him a little bit of a different perspective. And again, it's just a really fun conversation. If you like media, and I hope you do because I like media, if you like for San, if you like possible smoke. If you like possible piles of just he's heaping garbage in terms of a spin-off, I think you're really going to like this podcast. So we'll get there in one second.

But first, a word from our sponsors. Today's podcast is sponsored by me and Alpha Sense, but also me. Look, I just, I'm literally recording this within hours, minutes, whatever it is. About an hour ago, I finished the media webinar I did with AlphaSense. It was a ton of fun. We talked about the future of Paramount on the heels of them buying Warner Brothers. We talked about the future of Netflix on the heels of them, by a Mortar Bose. We talked about AI. We talked about the things in media that I am just

interested in, all the things that I think are driving returns going forward, all the things as a lapse, then sometimes media investor I think about when I'm looking at the space. It was a really good conversation. You know, I had my like little Alphacin's monitors on there and after they came on, they were like, we really enjoyed that conversation. So if you listen, I think you'll like it, too. There's a replay available on Clude a link in the show notes if you want to check it out. But, you know, it was a ton of fun. And if you like me, if you like media, I think you're going to enjoy it. So link in the show notes will go from there, this podcast, sponsored by Alpha Sense.

All right, hello, and welcome to yet another value podcast. I'm your host, Andrew Walker, with me today. I'm excited to have from Accrued Interest, Simeon, Simeon, McMillan. Simeon, how's it going? I'm doing great, Andrew. Thanks for having me. I'm a first-time guest, longtime listener, long-time subscriber as well. I really appreciate it.

I'm excited. I can already tell you and I, we're going to have a lot of our energy is right on the same past. I think we're going to have a lot of fun here. But we'll hop into it one sec, and one second, remind everyone, nothing on this podcast is investing advice. Please see a full disclaimer right at the end of the episode, or there's always a disclaimer link of the show notes.

You can see that there. Simi and I are going to be talking Versant in particular and media in general, so we'll be popping around their names. But just remember, not investing in advice. Simeon, the reason I reached out to you is I followed a crude interest for a while, but I mean, you have just been smashing the name on the Versant story, which is the spinoff from Comcast. I'll let you give the full overview.

So I want to stock that in particular. and then we talk media in general, but I'll just pause there and kind of turn over to you and what is Versant and why has your coverage of them attracted me to you so much? Sure. So again, thanks for having me on and want to say hi to all the listeners on the podcast. We'll follow up at the end with all of my handles and whatnot. Oh, I cover media. If you want to see the articles I'm talking about too, I'll just throw that out there so people can follow you.

I always want the guests to get all the likes, all the subscribes and everything. Absolutely. No, this is a perfect intro. So as you opened up, I cover a lot of media just for context for the audience, because I think this is very relevant how I describe a company. So I have experience in both investment banking, by side, hedge funds, the market private equity, by spent about a decade working in basically executive level or supporting senior leadership inside media companies. So I have a lot of experience in senior FP&A roles, ad sales, investor relations. I worked inside the office of the CEO, the Univision Communications where I got to see them work with a very similar set of assets as Versant.

And that's what brought me to this here. So I wanted to have a different view on the company. There's a lot of newsletters out there that cover spinoffs. And I think a lot of the alpha has been taken out and has come out of spinoffs recently. You can't just mindlessly buy them. And I think for the most part, a lot of investors had a good read on Versant. This is one of the last spinoffs. We've been spinning off cable networks and TV networks for almost a decade.

So they're very late to the game. And so I wanted to see what was actually there. And then I wanted to see if there's any strategic value, let's say, if something happened with Paramount, Skydance, and Warner Brothers. I started looking at this before that whole merger saga came to his conclusion, and it might still not be over. So just to dive into the name, Versant, to clarify. for the listeners is a spinoff of the cable assets from Comcast Universal. So when Comcast Universal

separated their TV assets, they put everything in Versant except for two, called three assets. They kept NBC network, the broadcast network, the Peacock. They obviously kept Peacock, the streaming conduit for NBC as well. And they also kept Bravo, which is a general entertainment network. Yeah. I was just laughing because you said they put everything in except for it. It's like they put everything except for the things that actually matter, like the really good stuff. So Bravo is kind of funny that they didn't put it inside here. Yeah, I did think that that was kind of funny because Bravo is what I would call general entertainment.

But they decide that that was the one that they wanted to keep. So anyway, so the spinoff happens, okay, just to skip ahead a little bit. So this is a little bit the opposite of what happened with Warner Brothers Discovery and their linear spin-off. So this spinoff was not done under duress, first of all. So this has been a long time coming. Why now? It just so happened to be now. There's a key date that I want your listeners to keep in mind for 2028.

Because in 2028, that is not only the time when the, I always mess of the vocabulary, the Morris Trust, the spinoff is no longer held back from doing M&A and other strategic deals that could threaten the tax-free nature. Okay? So that comes in in 2728 and 2028 NBC is separating themselves completely from the ad sales department of these cable channels. So this very quickly for your listeners, I think a lot of investors, and this is where I try to add my edge, pay far too little attention to the mechanics of what it takes to actually sell advertisements. Okay. It's actually a very difficult thing to do. And you can't just pop up and sell ads to a hit show overnight.

So there's a lot of puts and takes. So what your listeners need to know is that right now, all of the financials inside Burson, I would argue, are over-earning. They're over-earning because up until today, they've had the protective halo of the NBC family. Okay? And this gets especially relevant because Bersen wants to really market itself going forward as having strength in news and sports for live events.

Well, we can get to news in a second. And the news is MS now, excuse me, which used to be MSNBC, but I actually think that you can sort of ignore the news and the politics of it. Let's just look at the sports. The sports rights that they have are really just a compilation of sports rights from the NBC portfolio. It's NBC sports that they didn't have room to put on NBC network.

Period. Like that is in a nutshell what the assets are. And then I also want to point out to people, and we can talk about this more, when networks, entertainment companies sell ads. The ads are sold through sales teams, and they're sold in a package way. You cannot just buy, well, usually you cannot just buy one show or one event. It's always done as a portfolio, as a formula. Okay, they use the stronger content to help sell a weaker content.

Well, the biggest thing your listeners need to know is that the Olympics, with football slash the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl rotates networks every three to four years, as your viewers know. Those two marquee sporting events were the ones that I think were forcing advertisers to buy all these other networks. Okay. So a big issue I have,

and we can get to the forward forecast later, is that whatever forecast you want to make, it changes completely when the ad sales, a relationship separates and the baby is no longer under the protective parent of the of the of the of the um of NBC so I'll jump to the conclusion that we can come back I ray this underperform not just because the fundamentals are deteriorating which your listeners already know that but because they can't do the strategic moves and need to get out of this and I don't know how you can put a multiple I don't know how you can put a dividend yield on the company until we get past

the 2028 separation. There's one of the piece, and again, this is why when I was reading your piece, I was like, I could imagine a younger me seeing this spin off. And, you know, I, when I was following all the Paramount Warner Road stuff, you know, they come on and you would hear the CNBC hosts be like, we've never seen it. Like, they're talking to their own stock, but they'd be like, we've never seen a stock with this much selling pressure, right? And these are generally well-reasoned guys who like, not that they're investors, but they've seen a lot.

And they'll be like, it's just the selling pressure is relentless. These are, I remember, I think. think it was David Faber, who's like, this is a coiled spring. And David Viver is generally very measured when he's talking about something. So you look at this and you say, oh, my God, like, they spun off. And yes, I get it. It's, these assets are terrible. But they're kind of trading that four and a half times, five times EBITDA. And you're not the only one. I mean, AMCX is out there trading at like five to five and a half. And you're like, yeah, versus state's assets are shitty, but they're not AMCX shitty, you know? So you kind of see that.

But then your piece is the one where I really started thinking like, oh my God. The one, the one thing you didn't even mention, which you've pointed out. So it's not that you didn't see it. You just didn't say it in the rent. I mean, we didn't even talk about, hey, the carriage was done under this umbrella of the NBC umbrella, right? So there are carriageers too. But then you start thinking exactly what you're saying. Like, oh my God, when they go to do these advertising, they're like, hey, does anybody want USA Today? Does anybody want USA Today? And the sports portfolio, and I'm going to talk about all this, but I was looking at the sports portfolio. And they love to come out and they say, hey, 60% of our viewing is live or sport.

is news or sports, this is what you want. You're like, the sports portfolio, they are going to get, as soon as they're out of NBC, they are going to get the worst of all worlds, right? Because right now, NASCAR, they love to say we've got four NASCAR race, I think. As you said, they've got the four NASCAR races that they couldn't put on NBC. Well, in 2028, when they're out from NBC, either NBC is going to say, oh, we'll take those NASCAR races back, right? They're performing well, or NBC's going to say, these things suck.

All right, versus A, go bid for them. But they are so small, like all their sports rights are going to be. gone. It is just there in a tough spot. So I rambled a lot. I just want to throw that all back to you. No, it's perfect. No, no, this is, it's, and along the lines of what you're saying, what I think is interesting is that as I mature as an investor and making contents, we'll making content for living, excuse me, will make you a little more contemplative. I want to try to go behind just I'm going to seal that from you. I'm going to seal that from you. I'm going to steal that from you. So that is mine now. Oh, please do. With the crisis we got on right.

now, there's a lot of content to be made, but we'll get to there in time. But yeah, no, and I think it was also interesting, too, is because you have this sort of holding pattern until the time runs out in one to two years, I think I want to put on people's radar. I actually think, under the right circumstances, there's lots of bits and pieces that different middle market private equity players could probably want a part of. But let me tell you this, Andrew. I know this from experience working inside Univision and working with and looking at other similar companies, everyone internally, I guarantee, knows exactly what the stakes are. And I think, and we can talk about this more, you begin to see little, I don't want to say tricks, but little cues and tells

what they talk about, what they choose not to focus on, what they do want to focus on, because they themselves, if you put themselves in see the management here, okay, we like to talk about incentives, management knows that their hands are tied, all right? They literally couldn't even sell the company if they want to. So something that made me laugh a little bit. I don't give action alerts and I don't pitch a portfolio with precise buy and sales. I think this is underperform, but the stock has rallied recently. And why was that? Well, it was because on the last, on the quarterly earnings last week, which we can talk about, it wasn't because of anything they said with the actual performance. It was because they had now.

a relatively large dividend, a dividend, which comes out to about $1.35, $50 a share, I believe, which around $35, $36 a share comes out to about 4, 4.5% dividend yield. And so with the dividend announcement, it forced the stock to re-rate. And I'm not sure when this is going to air, but the stock is currently trading around $35, $36. So it's bounced off of the lows a little bit. In my analysis, I want to be conservative. I think that this is probably worth $27 a share. And I look forward to 2028, and I put a multiple on that.

And to your point, to bring a full circle, I actually think this is very much like AMC. I think this is very much like AMC. And in the article, I actually showed that if you actually adjusted their multiples, the stock price is the same where it was about three months ago. But I can say, so AMC networks at the time was trading at about seven-a-half to eight times EV to free cash flow. Enterprise value to free cash flow is sort of my version of owner earnings that I tend to use a lot on accrued interest.

So AMC was at about seven and a half times that in 2028. And then on my adjusted math, I said, oh, yeah, Versa is trading about seven times 2026. But that free cash flow is rapidly falling. Free cash flow was falling between 15 and 20% a year. It's scary out there. You know, I think one other thing, and this is just technicals, but I do think people were shorting Versaunt against the Warner Brothers,

just on the, because if Netflix won and there was the Warner Brothers spin, I think this was the, nobody wanted to sort of that Warner Brothers spin, so you had this, and it's not lost to me that the day Paramount won the bid for, won the bid. This was up quite a bit. Let me go. So we've been pretty negative, and I want to come back to all the reasons to be negative. But the other thing I found really interesting in your article is, you know, I read a lot of these spin-off presentations.

And if I, when I read most of the Investor Day, when I read them at the thing, they're talking about the golf channel and particularly the T-time service that they have. And if I read that just as a general observer, my first instinct was these guys are smoking something, right? There's no value there. Like, they're just desperate. it. They're trying to get a, they're trying to get something to hang their hat on so that people can get excited. And it's not, it's also not lost to me, like golf, you know, who buys stocks. It's generally old white men who like to golf or your key buyers and they run a lot of portfolios, right? So it's not lost to me. That's something you talk up and like it excite your customer base.

But your article was the first time I saw like, oh my God. And they, I knew, they've mentioned like, hey, it's about 10% of these times up. But your article was the first time the math got laid out and I was like, oh my God, they might like actually have. have a growth category killer, like the type of thing that a private equity for might really pay and get behind. So one of the things I'd like to add your article was it hammered, hammered, hammered the stock, but then you pointed out this and a few other ones we'll talk about, but some hidden gems in here. And I'd love for you to just talk about a little bit the golf play, and particularly the tea time business if we can. So the listeners have a little bit upside or,

you know, if the stock crashes something to hang their hat on. Sure. So, okay, so speaking of the golf assets. So everyone can, I can know what we're talking about. So the way, I'm going to tell you how they present the business and how I think about it. So they put the golf assets together. All right. And it's about a 50-50 split in terms of revenue. So it's about 600 million, let's say, on, on each side. So you have the golf channel, which I'm going to say right now, I think has no synergies with this golf business. I don't think it, no, no. It's if they want to advertise, they can advertise on it. They only don't. It's the type of thing. It sounds good. It's one of those one plus one equals 1.5 mergers and people come out and like, hey, we're merging. I'm trying to think of a good

recent one. But you know, we're merging. You're like, you could solve that with a contract. You could solve that with a license. Like there's, you absolutely do not need to have these two businesses together. I'm trying to think of another good one. But I completely agree with you. Oh, oh, I can give an example right here. And we're seeing, this with the NFL and the NBA, there really wasn't that that much value in the NFL network. There really wasn't. You know, there really isn't. And same thing with NBA TV, you know, with Warner Brothers.

NFL network was, it was a tax, right? cable channels. And, you know, you've been doing this long enough, you know, 10 years ago, RSNs and I fell for it, and they were. Arsons were the crown jewel in a portfolio, right? They were the best things you could. And the NFL network basically formed their own RSN and was like, hey, four NFL games a year, you're going to have to carry this.

the Seventh Channel because everybody loves the NFL and then, you know, there's there's no need for them to have it now. So I think that's a pretty good one, though. I'm sure we could think of some better ones if we came up with it. So with Versant and all the numbers I'm giving are high-level estimates I triangulated. Please do your own research, your research is at home. I just want to point out the company has never provided specific numbers, probably for a reason on the most recent call. if you read between their guidance, the golf now business is probably growing at mid single digits, maybe high single digits, if that.

So I just want to do that. So we got the golf channel about 600 million in revenue and falling because it's losing carriage or it will be losing carriage because it's not a must-see channel because, as your viewers also know, the must-watch golf events aren't even on the channel. So back to the actual software business. So the business is golf now and golf pass.

I think it's about 600 million revenue. And what it basically is, is they have somewhat of an oligopoly. Oh, and I'm sorry, I don't play myself, but for any listeners who do, Versa owns both Golf Now and T-Off, number one, number two, in case you have seen different brands. And what they, it's estimated they control about 75% of the third-party aggregator market for people who want to reserve tea times for a local golf course. Okay?

So there's a recurring aspect to it. There's software. In my article, I was saying how what's interesting about it is that they've been able to get more traction. They've been able to cover more golf courses by selling the software through a barter model. So in television, where I'm used to barter, a lot of times companies will exchange advertising for air time in another show. Okay? So barter, you trade,

my ad time for your time. In this situation, what the golf courses do is Burson or golf analysis, hey, look, instead of paying us for this booking software, all right, you give us a percentage of your inventory,

of your booking fees effectively. And, you know, what's interesting is that this aspect adds a little bit of an inflation hedge to the business, because you have a natural revenue uplift as... Can I drill on the... I'm sorry?

So are they saying, hey, golf course X, we want 10% of your inventory as in, you know, if you've got an 8 AM, a 9 AM, a 10 a.m. slot, we'll take the 8 a.m. slot. Or are they saying, hey, every time someone books through us, you know, we're just percentage of sales. If somebody pays $50 for the T-time, we're taking $5. Which one are they,

which model are they following? Sure. I'm not sure exactly the main thing. mechanics of the sales agreements, but I think it's probably much more percentage-based. I would guess so. The former is interesting, but it would make sense. I mean, this is, if I remember correctly, this is largely what a mind-body does. I mean, this is what Dordish does.

This is completely standard. But I think it's a very interesting model. Please continue and I'll add stuff at the end. Sure. So they have this model. There's a whole separate research vertical where if I was younger doing this, or if this was a standalone business, I would say, hey, I think golf is actually still growing. It had a big burst during the pandemic.

I thought it was a fad. I did a little research. It turns out it's not. It's still growing. It's a healthy sport. I think it's a good business. But the key thing we need to know, and this is what I always have to remind myself, is what is material to the stock. This 600-ish, $700 million revenue business is not growing fast enough with margins high enough.

to really make a, to make noise in the equity story. And that's why if you go inside the filings, they break out almost nothing. You really have to work hard. I would argue that if you actually look at how little they should tell you about the golf business, Vercent basically talks about the golf business as, look, they say, we have these other growth businesses that are creating enough revenue to offset the declines of our media businesses. So I gave a little overview of the mechanics.

I think it's an attractive business, but it's clearly being trapped inside of the structure. And I can see this being one of the assets that at a later date, probably is going to find a new home. Look, it's interesting because everything about this business reminds me of mind-body, right? Now, mind-body, the nice thing is you tend to book gyms. I mean, mind-body, for those you don't know, is the software that if you do boutique fitness, They power most boutique fitness gyms and stuff and some other stuff. But, you know, that business, it was years ago. But it got acquired for like, I think it was seven or eight times revenue, right?

Back in early 2019. Now, this is before the SaaS sell off, interest rates are zero, all that sort of stuff. But I could imagine having golf course inventory, you know, boutique fitness, there's 100, 200, 500, clubs and they're turning a lot. Like a goal, I could imagine once you get golf, if you get exclusive rights, like pretty damn sticky. It's not like there's, you know, 15 golf courses change it every month. You get one, you lock them in. People get used to it. I could imagine it's a pretty damn good sticky business. As you said, inflation protected. I could imagine it being a pretty high multiple business.

So that's what I think so interesting. Because again, when you're paying five times EBIT off for the whole thing, and we've talked about and we'll talk about how EBITO is falling off a cliff. But if you've got a little, you know, let's say it's a four times revenue business. That's growing 5% per year. You said it's $600. I mean, it starts to add up really quickly. and you start to get to a really interesting some of the parts. So I don't know, anything else in the golf business

you want to talk about? No, that was the crux of it. I think that in the news, there have been some reports, again, more on the Golf Channel side, and there have been some reports speculating what moves Versant could do to get studio space for the Golf Channel

because one of the many questions of what they'll do without NBC is, okay, where do we get studio space, where we get equipment? I'm less worried about that. They'll probably work it out. But yeah, the golf part is the most interesting aspect, all the other sports are really just trash. It's so funny.

It's like, where are they going to get studios? It's like, the golf channel is declining like crazy. And by the way, have you seen the stock prices of some of these office limits? Like the AI revolution is here, I'm sure they're going to be able to find a warehouse to stash a bunch of people in it if they really need to or something. I don't know. I would say so. I would say so. What asset you want to talk about next?

I want to talk about one other interesting asset that I think has a lot of upside. And this is probably their trophy asset, I would say. You could correct me wrong, but CNBC. And I mean this in a few ways. You know, CNBC, I think it's so interesting because, look, it is a bedrock of the financial community. Yes, people like to go on Bloomberg television. But as the CEO said, I was just at Davos and you should see all the business people want to talk on CNBC. Right.

If the administration wants to send somebody out to get an economic point, They send them to CNBC, right? So it's got that brand name. It's got a little bit up. I think there's a lot of interesting, and you explored them in your article, there's a lot of interesting possibilities and leverage you could pull. But at the same time, I kind of look at it. I'm like, hey, man, okay, yes, it's nice, but it's CNBC.

You know, there's, they've stubbed their toe a lot on launching financial news. Like, is it that great that in two years, you know, Bloomberg's out there, rangers up. There's a lot of other competitions. It's a legacy news network. I could imagine it's getting undercut on a lot of ways. So I could see upside and downside, and it's probably the crown jewel. So let's just spend a minute talking about CNBC and kind of what you see for that.

Sure. So I think that you're very astute in your recognizing the disruption risk in CNBC. That's actually something that if I had to write the article again, I'd probably go a little bit more into giving my views on, well, I'm going to explain you why. think that CNBC actually has similar disruption risk to, to, sorry, old habits. I'm used to MSNBC, MS now, MS now. So at first glance, completely different, okay? MS now, a very liberal network. I just want to say, I actually have extensive experience in radio.

My last corporate role, I spent about three years in what actually was a carve-out of radio stations, hot 97 WBLS, with some billboards, a random combination. All the radio stations have billboards. I mean, the old CBS outdoor is radio and billboards. They always got matched together. And I guess it was because it's a local sales business, I guess is why. But maybe it's because 50 years ago they were the best business you go. But for some reason, radio and billboards, match made in heaven.

All the above. Yeah, radio billboards and television. And I got to talking when I had her programming over the years and learned a lot. And he explained to me that liberal talk radio and conservative talk radio are really different products. And I think that as that's true in radio, there's also true in television. Okay. But what I think is similar between CNBC and MS now is I think both financial news reporting and political talk, I think it's clearly being disrupted by podcasts. It's being disrupted by podcasts.

You know, you have, well, you have cross-pollination. You have CEOs, finance people who will go on lifestyle podcasts like Rogan or Theo Vaughn or other stuff and break news like that. You have financial people who will go on podcasts like the All In podcast. It feels like a lot of investors have their own podcast to break news. You have companies with their own podcast. They can come on this one whenever they want to, my friend. Exactly. Did you see the one?

I don't butcher her name, but it was the CFO of Meta and she had a half. that said free cash flow. She was on someone's podcast, that said free cash flow was right before they hiked their CAPEX forecast and killed their free cash flow. But I digress. The whole point is that I actually agree with you. I actually think in time, in time I could have to see CNBC getting slowly disrupted

by just proliferation of podcasts. I think that another tricky part about CNBC, that CNBC is very much a channel that's tied to the linear bundle. I think it's one of the last channels that will be left standing as a bundle shrink. The bone keeps shrinking and it keeps, you know, whittling everything away. I tell people, Fox News will be the last channel in the cable bundle if it was a battle reall. I think close to the top five, you have CNBC. make the cut. But yeah, I think they have some obsolescence risk. I also know that CNBC is looking to try to sell B2C. They're trying to sell some more high value subscription, financial news products,

join the club. I think that, you know, everyone's got a substack as we both know. So that's a little, that's, it makes sense on paper, but I'm not sure how much answerly revenue there is. I'm going to get to the point. I think CNBC would be a great trophy asset, but you need a trophy buyer who's willing to pay a trophy price. And I think it would be a great trophy asset for a large tech company that sells stuff because they have one of the highest income,

one of the highest average income audiences out there anywhere. So in Amazon, just anyone in my piece I threw out there, and this is really a pie in the sky, A Robin Hood, if they wanted to have a news. You must have seen in their mind because I could see it, right? Like Robin Hood, you know, you think about all the E-Trade used to integrate with Yahoo TV, I think. But you could see how a Robin Hood integration could make sense.

You could see how integrating this to a data provider, right? Like an S&P or something. Because it does have a brand name. And as you said, you could see a lot of different ways. And I am really interested in the B to C side or CNBC still does break a lot of news. You could imagine, like, hey, a professional tier where the news is getting hit on the professionals here 10 minutes before it's hitting. I'm not 100% sure, but it does seem like there are a lot of optionality. I will tell you, like, I think CNBC's mismanaged. CNBC's YouTube

presence sucks. How can CNBC's YouTube presence suck? Because it feels like that's a place where a lot of these stories are pretty topical. It feels like they should be doing more than, you know, they've got several different channels, but the one I looked at, it just had like months old stories, very little views. They do have one that kind of runs little clips, but it just feels like an untapped asset

that has a lot of different levers, and it feels like they didn't, maybe my imagination is too wild for like a legacy brand, but it feels like they weren't really pulling the right levers or really looking to maximize its value here. So here's my thoughts on that. I think that, and this is where I'm not,

I'm not predisposed to defending management. I'm not rooting for any side in this. I think investors are right to push management and to be skeptical and make sure that they're thinking as forwarding as they are. However, I would say what I like to talk about on accrued interests is what's like to be inside the boardrooms of a lot of these media companies. And I can tell you if there is an overarching theme of a year, year one of accrued interests.

I'm coming up on my one-year anniversary of launching a substack in a couple weeks, about 1,100 subscribers in the first year, which is more than I ever would have imagined. A this, an overarching theme that I've come up is that YouTube competes with everything, and YouTube is the force, it's the force in the ether that we don't talk about, but it's, it matters. I can tell you from having built revenue models, YouTube, putting your content on YouTube if you're a legacy television video provider,

it's the devil's bargain. You have to do it, but the economics are horrible, so you try to do as low as possible. Yeah. So if you ever see someone who the YouTube present isn't as big as you might think it should be or it needs to be, it probably is for a reason. But to your question of,

is a mismanage or what they could do. I think that another tricky part about media is that the unbundling of all aspects of media, let's focus on video, okay? A big reason why Versa is in the position they are is because the whole streaming ecosystem, I think made the whole concept of a network irrelevant. Because as you search for something, a show is a tile on the screen, and I can tell you most people really don't not know what show comes from what network or what studio has made it.

Now, another problem where I actually have some sympathy for CNBC, MSNBC, and ESPN, really anyone who wants to try to do news, is that all these companies want to be forward thinking they let their talent do podcasts, they let their talent go out there. But what ends up happening is that your talent ends up competing with you. So I don't have in front of me, I don't have a list of all the, all the talent on CNBC. I'm more of a Bloomberg watcher. It's a little calmer. It's like, it's like easy viewing, it's like lazy viewing for me in the background.

But I know from the Bloomberg anchors, almost to a T, almost half them have a podcast, okay? You know, and they go on other people's shows. And so what happens is that just by nature of existing in the digital ecosystem, you have no choice but this. disrupt yourself. And that is, you made an observation that piece that you wrote. I want to say this last week where you're prepping for your webinar that you're going to be hosting on Netflix, when you point out Andrews says, hey, Netflix outperformed every other media stock over the last 10 years. And sometimes it literally is just that simple. Like I really do think that sometimes a lot of these media companies are structurally handcuffed and they can't make the changes. But yeah,

to wrap up your point. I think CNBC probably could have done more, but short of bringing in some of the podcast guys, if you look at ESPN, ESPN, I think is a good example here of what CMBC is probably going to have to do, but it's not ideal. So are you feeling with the Pat McAfee show?

So Pat McAfee, for any of listeners, more familiar, he was a podcaster, sports podcaster. He was a former thing I have a kicker. He was a punter, right? Yeah, he wasn't like a superstar. He wasn't dating a pop star or anything. But he built a great show,

a big following, and now ESPN licenses his show, and they paid him to take a show off of YouTube and now he's on air, on ESPN. He's tussling with them. I could see a business model the word maybe CNBC goes to the all-in guys or another finance podcast and says, hey, you know,

maybe we don't need Jim Kramer on for two hours yelling at people. It's funny you say that because I think Jim Kramer is their Stephen A. Smith. And it hits me. Now, Kramer is older. But when you look at their desk, every CNBC has him. But I think you're on something, right? Like you think about, I have not watched CNBC in so long, but you think about CBC, like, they've got Kramer.

they've got the fast money traders. Like you could imagine where it kind of, as you're saying, it kind of hybrids. Like ESPN has the Sports Center, which is the news. And then they've got, you know, Pat McAfee feels a big block. They've got a lot of more personality-driven shows. You could imagine a CNBC where they break it into, hey, we're going to have the news for part of the day. And then we're going to start licensing. And, you know, maybe if people love Andrew and Simeon, maybe it's, we license the Andrew

and Simeon show to talk about media or, you know, but you can imagine. That's the future. That's where it's going. Let me go back to, I want to go back to Versaant in 2020. We talked about they're boned in a lot of ways, right? First, they're going to, a lot of these sports rights that they share with NBC, whether it's the Premier League, the NASCAR, a lot of others are going to, they're kind of going to come out of that, and I think they're going to get the negative end of every single one of those

situations, right? And that's just a scale thing, right? USA is going to reach 70 million people and be getting 10 cents ahead, and NBC is going to be reaching 100 million people and be getting a dollar head. They can just pay a lot more and distribute it for more people. So I think they're screwed there. I think they're screwed on ads. The other interesting thing I think is, look, they gave 26 guidance.

And I can't remember if they gave 27 guidance. I can't remember. No, they did not. Yeah. They haven't. But 28 is where the big cliff of where the majority of their subs are going to end. And they even said, look, we've negotiated this under the NBC umbrella. How bad when they go to Cox, or I guess it's going to be charter now, when they go to charter,

when they go to the old mama ship, when they go to Comcast, when they go to Verizon, And they say, hey, we're here to renegotiate. And we're negotiating, you know, just for USA, CNBC, MS Now, and whatever rump of other channels they have. We don't have NBC. How bad are these renegotiations going to go? I think they're going to be completely railroaded. I think that a lot of these channels are going to absolutely drop carriage.

They're going to lose their spot on a lot of different providers. So here's something I want to contextualize for your listeners. A lot of my pieces on accrued interests are trying to point out the media stories that aren't necessarily financial, but I think are really important. I think the most important television strategy negotiation was last fall when YouTube TV gave Disney a black eye. YouTube TV, I think it was for maybe several weeks. They had what was the most contentious cable carriages to be with Disney channels, and they did something that even more contentious than the charter. even more the contentious than the charter one the year prior? Yes.

For this reason, Andrew, because for the first time, I call it shooting the hostage. YouTube said, we're not going to fold, and they let the subscribers miss, I think, two weeks of NFL games. They miss NFL games, and they miss some college football games. And for your listeners who aren't familiar, so I'm an elder millennial, okay? I'm an 86 baby. So I remember TV in the in the old regime and for those who aren't familiar when there used to be a negotiation between a local cable company and your local channel if they had an NFL game it was a rap the the cable company is going to have to fold because they could not deal with everyone being mad The executives were worried that their subscribers were going to come with pitchforks if they miss an NFL game like the subscribers come with pitchforks and just you know force them to take the settlement

100%. So to get to the point to answer your question, I think that we entered, while people realizing it, we entered a new, more contentious set of carriage negotiations, and we're in a period now where channels are just getting dropped and staying dropped. So Disney on the latest call had a huge charge. It was like hundreds of millions of dollars for being kept off. And this is where it gets really fun. YouTube not only bloodied them, but YouTube set of precedent or they reinforce the precedent where they basically said to Disney and this is this is really reverse is going to get killed. You do set presence says, okay, you know, we'll carry your channels, but you're going to have to give YouTube TV subscribers for free all the goodies that

you were giving to your your subscribers. ESPN Plus, you're going to have to, you know, have them away so they can ingest that content, all those, all those WWE pay-per-view events, all those UFC pay-per-view events? Yeah, we're getting that for free. Versa doesn't have those. Let me pause you there because one of the most interesting things, and I still don't quite understand it, is Charters Q4, right? This is much talked about, and I still, probably because I'm not as deep in the weeks, Charters Q4, for those who don't know Charter, they own Spectrum, big cable company,

about to merge with Cox. I think they'll be the largest cable company even bigger than Comcast after. They reported a surprise increase in video customers. And now there's a lot of things going over. One quarter does not make this trend. But I think one of the things they're saying is, look, we've succeeded in our negotiations because they had a contentious negotiation with Disney. And they're doing a lot of things that you're saying.

They're saying, hey, if our subscribers are going to pay you $10 a month for ESPN, then gosh darn right, they're going to get access to your DTC service. You're going to have to let them connect. And I think that's what's driving it. But what did you think of the charter Q4 video number? Sure. So full disclosure, I don't cover chart extensively. So I was not familiar with that.

I can tell you it did not register to me, partly because in my tracking notes, for the last one to two years, almost 100% of the net customer ads in the pay TV bundle have come from YouTube TV. I forgot what analyst it was. I'm not sure it was Monfeon, but I track the numbers myself. If you just add up all the pay TV losses from all the distributors and then the industry game, It pretty much all came from YouTube. I'm not sure as much what that short-term blit was for Charter, but the cord cutting is still happening at a egregious pace. Here's an interesting question.

So I think the next big shoot-a-drop, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, right? But I think the next big shooter drop is the NFL wants to get all of their, you know, despite the fact they just signed a new agreement. I think the current agreement runs till 29. I can't remember for sure. They're signing a new agreement this summer, right? They basically go to the shirt and say, hey, where the NFL were signed. They're signed a new agreement.

And I think there's two interesting things about that. I don't think people realize, like, the Fox network. And I'm just going to be a broken record. I'll say this on 15 different podcasts at this point. But Fox, there's no point for them to exist without NFL. And that is one of the big four broadcasters. If they lost the NFL, I think that network goes away, basically. So getting the NFL is existential for them.

ESPN. Now, ESPN is probably in a good negotiation position because NFL owns 10% of ESPN. at this point. But ESPN, I don't think it's quite existential because they do still have NBA and other stuff, but come on, if they lost the NFL, I mean, that whole network, especially because not just NFL itself, but all the tail programming itself, like, they've got to have the NFL, I think. So borderline existential for them, paramount, kind of existential for them. Like, they do have other stuff, but I don't think people realize when you've got three bidders that are existential there, how crazy the bidding is going to get here. I mean, I think NBC wants

it. You've got all these players. I think Netflix was a big Netflix keeps saying we're not going to do a whole season, but Netflix seemed very happy with how the Christmas games performed. Amazon's been very happy with how they've performed? So the two things I'm driving to here is A, how crazy do you think the NFL bidding is going to get? But then B, YouTube, which you mentioned is the biggest growth. And I think YouTube TV is so interesting because it's the biggest growth. And as you're saying, the channels are breaking. YouTube TV has, I believe they have the new Sunday ticket, right? Yes. why wouldn't you two TV just take a package, right?

Say, hey, we want that Paramount Sunday NFL games. We want that package, right? And now maybe the NFL doesn't want it. Maybe they still want, you know, distribution parity, and maybe they want on broadcast. But if you're YouTube TV and you take that package and you cut out the middleman there, I mean, your numbers go through the roof.

You are the TV channel at that point. So I threw a lot there, but the two questions are like, Yeah, I love it. How crazy does the bidding get? And why wouldn't YouTube? Or I think YouTube TV is the best position for this. Why wouldn't YouTube TV or Netflix just take one of these packages? Sure.

Here's how I would frame it for your listeners. And here's how I saw I think about it. I think that things change in television faster than you realize, but maybe not as fast as sometimes the headlines might seem. A key thing to keep in mind, with the NFL is the NFL is overwhelmingly a domestic sport. Okay, so they don't have, they're trying to get more international reach. Some of your listeners are probably tired from getting up early when they find out

one of their teams is playing in Paris. And they didn't check the schedule. The NFL is still very much tied to the U.S., which means, for better for worse, no one would disagree that the NFL is not worth. more money. And I think that a little belatedly, the press figured that out. Yes, the NFL has leverage to get more money. I think the press, and I think some investors might be a little bit ahead of themselves. Let me talk about some of the limits to how much the NFL could actually squeeze. And this is where you think about the pull and take of both sides. So the NFL is

domestic. And the most important thing for them is that their games are seen by the most viewers possible. That is different from an F1 or an MLS, who we've seen they've sometimes taken a bigger package, you know, to go with Apple TV. The NFL cannot do that. So the NFL actually can't play but so much hardball with the broadcast stations because at the end of the day, the NFL can only move as fast as the audience. And if there's anything that your listeners take away from, I think you can make yourself a better media investor. if you think more from the audience and the ad buyer. The audience is moving away from linear.

They are. But they're not going to go all streaming in two years or three years. So the NFL... Can I push back on you a little bit there? I do agree. And especially the last time that they had their media deal came up, which was only like two or three years ago. It's crazy how fast time flies and how we're already in another one.

There was the argument. A lot of people were saying what I'm saying. YouTube TV should take a mistake. Would Amazon? People said, no, they went on the broadcast. And I think another thing to remember is the NFL is a lot of the older owners are much older. And I do think that influences where they want.

You know, if you go to the owners and you say, hey, Apple TV is going to give us $6 billion. That's more than the Paramount $5 billion. A lot of the owners would be like, how do I get Apple TV? On my bunny ears? I'm being a little facetious, but six versus five would be a lot. But I hear you, but let me, my pushback would be they did the Netflix game. two games on Christmas.

They did an all-streaming wildcard game. So I certainly hear you that's not, that's not, you know, the whole playoffs late, but they did an all-streaming wildcard game. I think people are getting comfortable with this. And I think the road has been paved, right? They've got the, you've seen NBA on Amazon, right? That's all streaming.

And I think that's doing quite well. How much do you trust the numbers? I don't know, but, you know, that seems to be doing well. So the road's been paved a little bit. And I do wonder, you know, what, Danneville is probably going to split the different. and go to CBS and say, hey, the CBS package is all this AFC games except for three that were tossing onto YouTube and take it or leave it.

But I do wonder how much that, I think the audience is there, I guess, is what I'm driving to. Oh, okay. So here's what, okay, so here's another thing that I want you to listen to is to think about. The reason why I don't think the more extreme scenarios you laid out, or rather, the reason one, I don't think you're going to see Netflix bid for a whole, a whole season or a larger package, or, or even YouTube bid for a larger package.

It's because at the end of the day, the video product is the lowest margin, I'm sorry, the sports video product is the lowest margin part of their business. It just is. It's, it's, it's far more profitable of Netflix on an hour per viewing, you know, for like a chief drama, you do the big expensive content because you have to because it expands the tent. There's lots of reasons. But on a per hour basis, if you did like the optimization math, you know, and you and and what Netflix is doing, and I actually, so I will push back a little bit. I actually think it's funny that people have the skepticism for Netflix. I actually think

Netflix has actually been the most consistent. And I actually think that they're telling the, the God honest truth. Netflix realizes. that in the whole season, there's a lot of games you don't want. Okay? And I think, I also push back on the NBA a little bit. I think the NBA gets a bit of a bad rap.

I think the NBA is, it's funny. The NBA, people poo-poo it because it's not the NFL, but they completely overlook the fact that it's light years ahead, financially, of NHL and MLB, who are having real. I think the last package for the NBA was aggressive, but, I mean, but no, but back to why you're not going to see Netflix do this. Netflix has shown you is, and I do believe them, I think they bid on Warner because it was available. This is coming another article.

Some people say, well, you said you wouldn't buying the content, but you're buying the content. In my notes, I say, this is like the Golden State Warriors going after Kevin Durant. They didn't need them, but if you can get them, you. can and you keep waiting for competitor. But here's the thing for Netflix. Netflix has shown you that there's a lot of games that you don't want, all right? And everyone likes to talk about how, you know, the NBA season is too long. There's a lot of NFL games that Netflix doesn't want.

Is there NFL games you don't want? I'm sorry? Are there NFL games you don't want? Because, I mean, the Pro Bowl, which I don't watch. Everybody always says is a joke. The Pro Bowl gets more viewers than the NBA Finals does. Like, I don't know if there's actually NFL, the game, you know, the Germany game where you sent the two and nine jets to play the four and seven dolphins that starts at 9 a.m. That gets huge numbers.

Like, I don't know if there's any NFL games that you actually don't want. Okay, I'm a pushback. They actually redid the Pro Bowl for the NFL. I know. Yeah, yeah. And it's actually a shadow of itself. It's. So it gets huge ratings, though.

No, it actually does. No, no. Oh, it didn't get huge ratings this year. No, no, no. So they changed the NFL Pro Bowl to a flag football game and it has worse ratings in the last 30 years. But here's the thing. Down 60% year over year this year.

So I would have been right until this year. Okay, okay. But Andrew, let me tell you something. What I love about media is that a lot of times, the narratives don't always match the ratings. And the NFL is such a religious brand that I actually think that people are very, they're far too hesitant to criticize them.

But I digress. What Netflix is good at is, you're absolutely right. NFL game is the most valuable unit of television. Let me rephrase it. Netflix is the king at finding like the piece of content that has the most juice, all right? And taking that out. So Netflix is going to be airing the home run derby. That's a perfect example, you know.

They're not even wasting time with the games. But Netflix got the World Baseball Classic Rights for Japan, you know? With NFL, if the owners would let them surgically carve out the package they would, the problem is they can't. The other reason why I think, I actually think NFL is going to keep all the same broadcast partners. You're going to keep all the same broadcast partners because they need that coverage in the United States. And there are still some places

that only broadcast TV can reach and they're not going to get Netflix and YouTube and the other guys to bid for a whole season. Now in the future, yeah, they could, but I think the NFL, I think the NFL negotiations might not be as big of a game changer as some people think.

So we'll see. I agree with you. I think they're going to keep all the same partners. I just think like all the same partners are basically going to bid their enterprise value. to get it right because if you're right it is existential and I do think it's existential I think they're going to bid huge numbers and they're going to get worse packages in the same way that yes p.m for the NBA rights they bid a big number and they got a worst package and that was the NBA which I love and I

think it's got it's got a lot of content and people forget like if you can get somebody tuning in every Tuesday night every Thursday like that's got a lot of value but 82 nights that calendar people Everyone forgets that, not to cut you off, but let me just lob a hot take here. HBO as a network is so overrated, so overrated. And a big reason why it's overrated is because HBO only has maybe two or three hit shows at any given time with eight episodes, and you can't build a network or a service around that. But no, back to you, having lots of units is a big advantage. No, you're right.

I mean, it is, though, at the same time, it is one of those things where when you've got shows that good and that break, it does have a little bit of brand and it breaks through and it forces people like, it forces people to sign up. So the issue is, you know, the whole vision for Warner merging with Discovery was you've got HBO, which is this great, like they get the draws, right? They are the thing that sign up. And then you merge them with the discovery, the Dr. Pimple Poppers, right? The things that you watch in the background, that's the thing that stops the customer turn. That's the innings eater. And then you have the HBO, like the big game of Thrones to lure people in. And it's a perfect marriage.

And the execution's probably left a lot to be desired there. Samian, this has been awesome. We're kind of coming right up to the hour mark. We hit a lot. I actually wanted to hit some more. But I've had a ton of fun. Again, I'll include it into accrued interest and the show notes and everything if you want to see. But any last thoughts we should have hit that you kind of want to wrap up with before we call break?

Sure. Well, I just one thank you again, Andrew, for having me on. It was a ton of fun. I love to be back. And we can, you know, talk more about Versa or other. their stocks. I just want to tell all the listeners that when you go to my site, www.cruidant.com, I think the piece of content I'm most proud of that I want people to look at is I do a monthly series where I break down a TV viewing report called the Nielsen Gage Report,

where it measures what market share of big screen, non-mobile TV viewing. And it's in this monthly series, I've been tracking just the torrential ascendance, the ascendance of YouTube. I thought you're going to say the downfall of cable. Exactly. And you see the little market share stuck at 1.5% for Warner Brothers every single month. And you see the market share of Paramount stuck at less than 2% every single month. And I just want everyone to know that media is great and we can read all the financials. But if you don't have the audience, you're not going to have the very.

value. And financial engineering is not a strategy. Eventually, the audience is going to dictate who wins. I'm not going to spoil the witness here, but obviously the big news over the past 10 days is Warner Brothers abandoned the Netflix deal and agreed to emerge with Paramount. What are the odds you would give Paramount Warner Brothers of being a success? Negative 10. I think the question is, when is the breakup coming? I think that's more the question, is when the breakup's going to come. Completely agree. History suggests.

it's going to be a disaster. I couldn't be more negative. I mean, I generally like the assets and think they could be matched together, but I just couldn't be more negative on how it's playing out. So, I mean, this has been great. Look, there's always stuff going on the media. We'll just have to make this like a quarterly occurrence or something, but I really appreciate you coming on.

This has been fun to jet through everything for about an hour, and we will do it quarterly. It'll be a lot of fun. Thank you, Andrew. Have a good one. A quick disclaimer. Nothing on this podcast should be considered investment advice. Guests or the hosts may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast.

Please do your own work and consult a financial advisor. Getting ready for a game means being ready for anything. Like packing a spare stick. I like to be prepared. That's why I remember 988 Canada's suicide crisis helpline. It's good to know just in case. Anyone can call or text for free confidential support from a train responder anytime. 988 suicide crisis helpline is funded by the government in Canada.

Thanks.