Yet Another Value Podcast - February 2026 Random Ramblings

Episode Date: February 17, 2026

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his February monthly random ramblings, recorded on February 12, 2026. He examines the growing AI-driven panic spreading across SaaS, insurance, trucking, office, and other sectors, questioning how exponential technological improvement could reshape business models built on intangible assets. Andrew compares the current selloff to prior panics in banks and biotech, highlighting the challenges of assessing risk when assets lack tangible backing. He also explores the balance between hard assets and software businesses before closing with reflections on investor psychology, updating priors, and balancing arrogance with humility._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] February monthly random ramblings[00:03:48] AI panic spreading across markets[00:04:18] Office and trucking selloffs[00:06:13] SaaS sector widespread declines[00:09:15] Exponential AI progress concerns[00:14:20] Hard assets as safety trade[00:18:10] Media disruption and SaaS analogy[00:23:05] Updating priors in markets[00:25:00] Arrogance versus humility in investing[00:27:10] Invitation for listener feedbackLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

You're about to listen to the yet another value podcast with the heroes me. Andrew Walker, today's podcast is my monthly random ramblings for February 2012. I'm just going to hop on and I ramble for, I can't even remember. I think it's about 30 minutes. I don't know. Time was flying. Time was going so slow because it's a terrifying, terrifying thought process. I mainly talk about the SaaS apocalypse that's going on as AI.

I keep saying SaaS, but the AI fears are bleeding into all sorts of sectors all over the market. People are wondering how it's reshaping. And I don't have answers for you. I just have a long rambling discussion of, look, AI is improving exponentially. And humans are really, really bad at dealing with exponential improvement. So on the one hand, to me, I always want to be the person running into a panic, just like, you know, like a gunslinger running into a firefighter. Just like spraying money everywhere. That's my instinct in a panic.

That's what I've done it a few times. And I wish I had done it harder. And I wish I'd done only that over the past few years. on the other hand, you see this panic, and AI is coming for things that have no tangible assets, you know, a SaaS company, all the value is into software engineers, all the values in the contracts, all the value is in those cash flows, those could get displaced really quickly by AI. So on the other hand, exponential progress coming for things that have no tangible assets, so that's scary.

I've got no great answers for you. I've just got a 30-minute rambling. And then I'll end it with some thoughts on kind of, you know, being an investor requires a really delicate balance of arrogance and humility. How do you keep updating your thoughts? How do you make sure you're not becoming the person on CNBC who's been saying, I'm bearish on the market since 2011? And with some thoughts there, it's my monthly random memory and bleeds. We're going to get there in one second. But first, a word from our sponsors. Today's podcast is sponsored by Fiscal.aI. Fiscal.a.I is a modern data terminal built for

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a graph, you can get some really interesting comparisons, you know, margins from one grocery to another, how they've evolved over time, stuff like that. Anyway, use my link, fiscal.a.i slash yav. That's fiscal.a.m.a. slash yavis for two weeks free plus 15% off any of their paid plans. That's fiscal.com. A.I.S. Y.A.B. All right. Hello, and welcome to the yet another value podcast. I'm your host, Andrew Walker. With me today. It's me. I'm on. for my monthly random ramblings for the month of February. I was going to do this next week or the week after, but I had a podcast guest reschedule,

so I had some extra time. I was like, you know what, I've been thinking about a lot. Let's get on a ramble. So I'm going to ramble about some stuff today. Before we get there, quick disclaimer, remind everyone,

nothing on this podcast. Investing advice, I don't think I'm going to be talking any specific stocks today, just general market thoughts. But please remember, nothing is investing advice. I'll tell you, sorry. I got a haircut recently.

You know why I got a haircut? because somebody came onto one of the YouTube comments and said, dude, your hair is so fluffy and out of control. The blur on the background of your Zoom screen can't even pick up your hair. And I was like, oh, dang, if it's that out of control, I'm in the haircut. I'm taking advice on when to get haircuts from Randos on YouTube. Should you really be listening to me about anything on investing? No, absolutely not.

See the full disclaimer at the end of the podcast. All right. Today, I've got a few things I want to start with. The thing I am recording this on Thursday, February 12th. let me start with the thing that's like just really taking over the markets so far this year. And that's that it's the AI pain is spreading throughout the markets, right? And the place this is most obvious is in software as a service SaaS, which is just like blowing up every day because people are saying, hey, you know, is everything going to get ripped out by AI. But it's spreading to other places.

I'm recording this on February 12th. Office is blowing up today. You can go look at a bunch of office stocks that are down 5, 10%, which is big moves for office. buildings, right? And I think it's because the market is looking saying, hey, all these companies are going to fire everyone and all the offices are going to be empty forever. I don't know. But it seems to me that's the only thing I can think of. And then another one is LCL trucking. So these are things like RXO, ODFL, all these type of stuff. They are down huge today. RFO is down like 20%. O'DFL is down. I'm typing it in. OFL is down 5ish percent.

They're down because some, I believe it's because some like fly-by-night penny stock release the paper on using AI for LTO and they're down. So it is spreading wildly, really quickly. I mean, earlier this week, we saw insurance get hit. We saw brokers get hit. It's spreading really quickly throughout. It's not just SaaS, everything else going up. So I want to talk about that.

And a lot of the stuff I will say is SaaS, but it relates to everything. You know, in general, I wish I had done nothing my career but run into PANN. I like to say in panics, I view a panic as somebody shouting fire in a crowd of theater, and I want to be running in when everyone's running out. Like, that's my instinct in these things. And the last two panics I can think of were banks and busted biotex. Busted biotex in 2025, early 2025, banks in early 2023, after the SIVB and First Republic crash.

And to be honest, I wish I had done nothing but focused on those opportunities over the past couple years because they did incredibly, right? And you don't want to say end up two. Every panic's different. Everything's different. So anyway, those are the last panics that they worked out great. I'm worried here, right? Like, there's no doubt to me that there is a panic in SaaS and a lot of these sectors.

And, again, I'm focused specifically on SaaS, but it's starting to apply to other sectors. Over the past week, you will see days where SaaS, every name is down 10%. And I mean, these are names that have nothing to do with each other. The ones I like to compare are like, you know, you'll have Salesforce, which is literally enterprise level CRM. You'll have that down 10% or 5% on a day because it's kind of big, 10% is a really big move. And duolingo, which is consumer quote unquote learning how to learn a foreign language. And I use quotes because I did do a lingo for two years.

And I think I learned 10 words of Polish despite doing it every day. So you'll have those two. They'll be down 10%. And, you know, it's just the whole sector is just going to hammered. And I've seen panics. Again, the banking panic, the biotech panic, I've seen other panics. When you have whole sectors that are down 10% on the day and, you know, it's just completely disparate names getting hammered, that's generally when there's a panic and that's

generally when there's this location. So I want to run into those panics, generally. That's my gut. It's hard with SaaS. You know, with banks, I would say, now there were worries about bank runs and everything getting zeroed. But with banks, like you have a bunch of things. tangible equity. You've got a business model that has been around for, you know, it's the second

oldest business in the world for a reason. It's been around for 5,000 years. It's hard to say, hey, we're not going to have banks going forward. Even if you were a crypto maximum saying, hey, every bank going forward is going to be, you know, run on the internet or whatever. Like, these were banks that had a billion dollars of tangible equity and we're selling at 600 million, 700 million selling way below book. So if you were confident, you know, you could go in and you could do the market-to-market adjustment and say, hey, you know, Silicon Valley blew up because they weren't marking their bonds properly. If you went into these banks and said, hey, these bonds and these loans are marked properly, and I'm still buying for a big discount. And the run on the bank,

the run on the bank risk is gone. I mean, there were great values, right? With biotex. I mean, part of the reason biotex sold off last year is because people were worried about the FDA. And I think those concerns are proven out a little bit by some of the stuff we're seeing at the FDA with pulling the ball on specifically gene therapies and stuff, but neither here nor there. You know, with biotex in March and April, these things were trading so far below cash value that you no longer had to worry. I mean, they weren't even science projects anymore, right? If the science was dead the next day, you had capital allocation issue. So, any, what I'm saying is with both those, they had hard assets, right? With software, the issue is there's not really

a hard asset there, right? Like, these were built on, these are trading at multiple. of two years ago, multiples of revenue now. It's multiple of cash flow, I'd say. But still, like, the earnings there can evaporate quickly. And when they do, there's kind of nothing left over for equity holders. And, you know, I think that's scary because even if you look at, if you come to this and you say, hey, you know, you can't replace, and I can just keep using Salesforce over and over again because they're just such a way.

You can't replace Salesforce with a vibe coded CRM. That is true, right? that is true today, that's true now. But the AI stuff is increasing, is improving at an exponential rate. You know, and I would point you to go back two, three years ago when, you know, everybody would show the value, I've got one that is in my mind. It's like a picture of Will Smith. It's a video of Will Smith doing stuff.

And the version two years ago, it kind of looked like a horror movie where the character was made of wax or cheese and he was melting and he had like eight fingers and he was stop motion doing everything. It was terrible, right? And then you would fast forward to, today, and people treat this all the time, right? It's the V1 versus V4 of a bunch of different models. You fast forward today, and they make these things, and it's indistinguishable from, like,

A-level Hollywood movies these videos are getting made. So that's in three years. You go from just horror figures, nightmarish type stuff to stuff that is kind of indistinguishable from a-level movies, and these are getting spun off instantly, right? You can say, oh, an AI tool can't replace Salesforce, can't replace, pick your SaaS service right now, okay, maybe you can't right now, but if these things are improving exponentially, how long till a spun up sales force or a spun up whatever SaaS tool you want to is at the same level of the kind of enterprise level thing? It's going to be really effing fast. And, you know, I saw some people who specialty insurers or something would sell off on Monday because Anthropic rolled out like a basic insurance product.

And I saw some people who instinctively were like, how stupid is the market, the specialty insurer selling off on this. It's not even competitor. And I think that's exactly wrong, right? If you roll out, innovation happens at the lowest level. And if an AI tool rolled out a very basic, hey, we can price life insurance is very standardized across all markets, right? We can price life insurance better than anyone else, right?

They rolled out a very standardized model that. I think it's right to look at that and say, hey, if they're doing, in life insurance perfectly right now, in three years, they're going to be able to do specialized insurance, or they're going to be able to do anything. So I've really been, you know, I want to go in and buy it, but my concern is just, it's very hard for humans to understand exponential, like this exponential progress and where it's going. It's scary. Now, there's lots of pushbacks there, right? One pushback that I have that I've kept top of my mind. I remember in 2021, 2021, 2020 range, Every now and then I'd have generally a college student who would email me.

They would say, hey, I think Twitter was a very popular one. I think Twitter is a short. Here is a Twitter competitor that I coded on my own inside of a day, right? And that was exactly wrong, right? Like, cool, you can code Twitter. It's not hard to recreate Twitter. The Twitter website is not what is unique about Twitter. It is the network of facts.

It is all the people being there. It is all the eyeballs on that. those, I mean, Twitter has proven it time and time again, those network effects are extremely difficult to break, right? So just because if I take this to SaaS, just because, you know, Anthropic, Claude, whatever it is, can code a Salesforce competitor does not mean it has made a Salesforce competitor, right? There's lots of people involved. There's lots of Salesforce. There's lots of things. And no company is going to switch over a whole log to, hey, Claude, Claude made something that visually looks like Salesforce, right? Like, that's not a way.

working model. So that's just one caveat to the downside risk I'm saying, but I do think if you play it out, like, I think it gets pretty scary. So just a few other things I want to talk about that. With banking, I think you could be a journalist and buy into the banking panic and do pretty well three years ago, right? Now, did I have banking, I'm sure banking specialists could have done a little bit better, but being a generalist, all you had to really do was go, look at the balance sheet, read the footnotes and say, hey, this bank has a good deposit base. It doesn't have these huge mark-to-market issues with bonds, loans, whatever it is, trading way below book.

And if you did that across the board, you generally made pretty good money in banks and that panic. Biotech, same thing. If you went and you said, hey, this company's trading for way below cash, they're not burning it on insane science projects. And I don't think any biotech's ever really that aligned. But there's shareholders here kind of line. You could make pretty good money. with SaaS, it's really difficult being a journalist and coming in here, right?

Because, again, all the business models are very disparate, and you're definitely going to see different impacts from AI for a lot of these. And I will tell you, like, when I talk to sector specialists, sector specialists are talking to CIOs, they're doing extra calls, they're doing panels, they're doing surveys all the time. Go in and being a journalist and saying, hey, I'm going to buy, I'm going to buy into this panic when you're competing against sector specialists with that type of check.

It's kind of scary. And I'll just give you one example. You know, I've done some calls with, I've done some calls. I'm sure sector specialists are doing a lot more. But I'm hearing in real time, you know, someone I talked to three months ago who's saying, oh, yeah, I'd never use AI for that, starting to say, oh, thinking about it, or, oh, I'm changing some habits around the margin. And when you're picking up on that and you're saying, hey, this SaaS company looks cheap

on a trailing basis, you know, let's take the, let's put the stockcom back in. They're trading that 10 times free cash flow. It's really scary when you're hearing in two months a business that has no tangible assets, people are talking about changing how they're using it or how AI is impacted and stuff. So it's really scary. You know, one thing, and I've had multiple people point this out to me, but one thing that you probably want to see is it's always the highest and people are always the slowest to roll out changes in technology, right?

They're always going to be the most cautious. So your largest bench, your JP Morgan's up. They're generally going to be pretty slow to adopt things. Actually, banks might not be great because it's the smaller banks who've been the slowest that's out online banking. But, you know, the largest players are generally going to be slower than the smallest players. So one thing I've heard a lot of people say is, hey, what you probably want to do is you probably want to go survey like, you know, 50 CIOs of companies that have about 500 employees

and ask them, hey, are you using Salesforce? Are you using X, Y, Z? Are you using that? And you want to see how many of them say yes? And then you probably want to go and survey companies that now have 25 employees and see how many were using Salesforce or whatever SaaS you want two years ago when they were a 500 person employee. And you want to see, hey, maybe you're starting to see small companies delaying when they start using the SaaS that these companies would have used two years ago because they can use the AI tools. And if you're starting to see that, it's going to start bleeding up to the larger people. So that's one thing I've been thinking about, oh, one other thing.

You know, there's always two sides to your coin. And you're seeing SaaS blow up. And I've seen a lot of people pounding the table on hard assets, right? And for the first time in a while, the first six weeks, you've seen a lot of hard assets, a lot of more cyclical stuff, really start to catch a bid. It's been kind of interesting. It's like a reversal. But I've seen some people say, hey, maybe hard assets are catching a bid because they're a flight

to safety, right? You've got this great coal mine in Virginia. I don't know if any coal mine's great, but you've got this great coal mine in Virginia. It's going to be producing coal, whether AI replaces all the jobs or not. And honestly, it might be a coal beneficiary because AI demands so much power. And there's lots of other examples. You know, steel, one that I have written a little bit about and thought about is cement.

You know, we're going to be using cement 100 years from now, whether AI is here or not. Cement is the basics for roads. buildings, I'm sure we're going to be building roads. We're going to be building buildings, all that. Cement gets used a lot in AI data center. So I actually think there's tailwinds to that. And it's a very local market, right? I don't think AI is going to solve the fact that it's really,

cement's really heavy and like it's really difficult to ship long distances. So I've seen lots of people talk about hard assets as a flight to safety trade just because they're kind of AI proof. And that's probably right to some extent. But I will say, be careful what you wish for because a lot of these hard assets, you know, I think AI might replace them. Again, office buildings, people are starting to worry, hey, what if all the office buildings are empty because of AI?

I think that's overblown. But I would point to power. I said coal, right? People are saying, hey, oil, you know, oil is going to be in demand. Coal, whatever it is, going to be in demand. Probably. AI has been great for power so far. AI has really increased power demand.

I do worry, AI, you know, it is so smart. What if AI cracks the code on kind of efficient batteries and storage, storing power, that's really bearish for a coal, for a gnat gas, because all of a sudden, solar and wind, you combine that with efficient batteries, if AI cracks that code, gets really bearish for that type of stuff. So that's just one way. All right. SAS, the SACPoclapse, AI, after effects, it's been on my mind. As you tell, because I'm rambling, I don't know the answer.

I don't know the answer, but I've been thinking about a lot. Oh, I guess I'll jump back in. One other thing I thought, you know, if you, if you, if you, look at, I do think a lot about media as it pertains to SaaS right now, right? A media in the 2010s, the cable bundle was the greatest thing that, it was probably the greatest business that's ever been invented. You know, you, once you got distribution, you had a huge network effect. It was very difficult to take you out. You could get kicked out, but particularly if you had like sports rights and stuff, it was just awesome. And one of the reasons it was so great is because

for a lot of, for a lot of entertainment, there was huge, distribution costs, right? If you wanted to make a TV show or if you wanted to be a news broadcaster, you needed, A, you needed the distribution, you needed to be carried on a lot of channels, and B, you need a studio, you need a lot of equipment, you need a lot of people behind the scenes. Those have come way down, right? In 2010, if I told you YouTube and the iPhone, we're going to destroy the cable channels, you'd probably look at me like I'm crazy, but they have really destroyed the cable channels, right? Netflix plus Warner Brothers might get over the finish line because they argue YouTube takes more time up than people watching Netflix does. What has YouTube done? It's

brought distribution costs way down and it's made it able for one person to kind of be the star versus before it would have taken a whole team. Where am I going with this? You know, I do wonder if one of the things with AI is previously, if you were a SaaS company, scale was important, right? You need hundreds of software engineers, hundreds of salespeople to kind of get that. Everyone would develop one product and they would sell it out, right? I wonder if If you kind of played this out in the YouTube analogy, if what happens is you don't need hundreds of people, Claude code can buy code kind of a CRM or something. And what you need is one unique software engineer or three unique software engineers and two great salespeople.

And what they do is they kind of go to, you know, they go to big companies that they say, hey, you choose us and we're basically going to be with you full time, right? We're going to be there holding your hand. We're going to have AI spin up a CRM. And then we're going to custom code. we're going to make the last 5% that tweak it around you so that you've got a custom CRM that fits and works exactly for you. So I wonder if like it's a fragmenting, right?

Whereas before in the network era, it was, hey, there's one star who makes all the money and gets all the fame. And then in the YouTube area, the era, the TikTok era, there are hundreds of stars who are making tons of money. You know, I'm starting to get more grays on my head. I have no clue who the 20-year-olds are watching on TikTok, but there's all these TikTokers who are making more money than you can believe, right? But they aren't nationally famous like Jennifer Aniston or a Wolf Blitzer or something was from your spec.

So I guess what I'm driving to is I wonder if the AI, because it brings the cost of distribution down, it brings the cost of scale down. If you see lots of things where, hey, I am the best software engineer, 10 years ago, I would have gotten employed by an Oracle or Salesforce. Going forward, I get employed and I kind of work my own business. I've got two great clients. I partner with my best friend who is the salesperson who really maintains that relationship. and I'm kind of just coding around the edges and I actually get paid more. Now maybe it's a riskier model. I don't know, but that's what I've been thinking about.

Let's see. I've really been rambling. Okay, that's SaaS. Let me just go to, you know, one thing, let me switch completely. One thing, I've been thinking about arrogance, humility, and updating your priors. And I'll end by talking about that. Let me start with updating your priors. You know, I've had friends who have been bearish AI for 18-Mars.

They've been saying AI is a bubble. It's all going to blow up. It's going to be a disaster. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong. I have no idea, right? Maybe it is a bubble. AI is obviously reshaping a lot, but Internet in 2000s was reshaping a lot and it was definitely a bubble.

I have no idea. But when would they say they're wrong? When would they update, right? If you say AI is a bubble for the next 50 years, at some point, AI is going to have some stock market crash. And I guess you could say you're vindicated. But when do you update? When do you say you wrong?

For me, I've been saying for the past 15, 18 months, I found the market a really confusing place because all the AIA stocks power higher, all the power stocks power higher, all the MAG7 stocks power higher, and everything else has been kind of left behind. If I've been saying for the past 18 months, hey, I'm a little confused by the markets and I'm a little bit more on the bear side than I normally in, and I just keep saying that for 18 months, when am I failing to update my priors? How do I update my priors? It's kind of a macro view like that.

How do you update? How do you evolve your views and not just become, you know, we've all seen them on CNBC, the guy who says, every time he comes to CNBC says, I'm bullish, the stock market's going up 20% over the next 12 months, or the guy who's been bearish for, you know, since 2011, he's been bearish and he's been saying the stock market's going to drop by 30% it's way overvalued every year for the past 15 years, and the market just, in general, rips higher and higher. So I've been thinking, like, kind of how do you avoid becoming a talk talking macro head?

how do you have beliefs, but how do you shape them as kind of the market evolves, you know? And this probably applies to companies too. How do you shape your views around companies, you know, so you're not just responding to the stock price, but how do you shape your views around companies? I find that a little easier because I guess you can, you know, as I mentioned, the AI thing, you can do expert calls and all this sort of stuff. But I've been thinking a lot about it. Related.

You know, I've probably said this before, but just something I've been thinking. about, it's something I think about a lot, and I'll just say it again here now. Being an investor is a weird, weird job because it requires a level of arrogance and humility that you almost need to balance on a knife edge. I mean, it is very arrogant to go and be an investor and say, hey, I'm going to generate alpha. I'm going to go into the stock mark that the most competitive of games and I'm going to figure out a way to beat the market, right?

That is very arrogant. And with arrogance, a lot of times I will see comes blow up. You're arrogant, you're overconfident. You say, I'm smarter than the market. You find an opportunity you like. It's at 100. You plow all in. It goes to 80.

You double plow on. And maybe it works a time or two. It goes from 100 to 80 to 400. But if you are arrogant and you don't deserve it or you double down every time, eventually it goes 100 to 80 to 40 to zero. And look, I use double down. And down is one of the scariest things in finance, right? But you can ignore that.

if you are the type of person who does a lot of work and takes a 20% position, eventually, you know, you will be wrong. And it's tough. Now, you can, if you're right over time, it'll be great. But a lot of times the investors I see who they do great for five years, it's because they're taking 20% positions and they're generally right. And then one year, they take 20% positions and all of them are wrong and they go down 80% and it's all over.

Right. So there's an arrogance there that has to be balanced with humility. right? And the humility is being willing to be open to do information. Change your mind, not double down, sell when you're wrong, have kind of, you know, there's an aggression and passivity balance there too, right? Like you're arrogant, you say, I can beat the market. When you think you have an edge, you need to be aggressive, you need to swing hard, but you need to have some passivity, right? Where just because you think something's a little bit edgy, you don't take a swing. You kind of really wait for your thing. I don't know.

I don't quite know where I'm going with that, but the balance between the two always, always weighs on me and makes me think and makes me question. And I've said it before and I'll say it again, investing is a very mental game. And over time, I find it to be more and more mental. And that push and pull of, hey, this looks interesting. Do I make the swing? Am I being arrogant to think I have an edge when I'm looking at this, that I can analyze this better? what is my alpha, what is my differentiate? Very, very difficult to think about.

All right, anyway, those were my ramblings for February, 2006. Oh, last thing I should mention, you know, one of the reasons I throw these ramblings out there is because I'm arrogant, I'm a narcissist, I like to listen to myself talking. I like it when people listen to me talk. But a real reason is, aside from that arrogance and narcissism, I love it when people respond to me. I love to chat on them.

I get a lot of value out of it. A lot of the things I talk about on here are things that people reach out to me. me and I chat about with them. And in general, like, I think the me of 10 years ago thought, hey, Walter Schloss investing in a windowless room and just reading 10Ks was like the ideal. But increasingly, I find, you know, I do a podcast on this, but talking to smart people and just talking to them about the markets involving your views, I know it sounds stupid, but it just really helps like spur and make you think, think deeper, think harder, learn new things. So what I'm saying is if you like the ramblings, if you didn't like the ramblings, whatever,

me an email. I'd love to discuss anything that's on your mind that relates to this that would make me smarter, make you smarter, make us both smarter, make us both a little more likely to outperform. So I'm going to wrap it up here. It is, again, February 12th, 2006. Got some great podcast coming up for you in the near future. Looking forward to sharing those with you. Looking forward to rambling again in March and have a great month. We'll talk soon. A quick disclaimer. Nothing on this podcast should be considered investment advice. Guests or the host may have positions and any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast. Please do your own work and consult a financial advisor.

Thanks.