Yet Another Value Podcast - March 2026 Random Ramblings

Episode Date: March 25, 2026

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker returns with his monthly solo ramblings covering several themes shaping current markets. He starts by discussing recent volatility and ...why markets feel inconsistent despite relatively modest index declines. Andrew then explores how long-term tailwinds in software and growth investing may have influenced investor track records over the past decade. He also revisits his three-year rule for evaluating stagnant investments, examining its limitations in cyclical sectors. The episode closes with a discussion on position sizing, emphasizing the need to re-underwrite positions after large price moves and avoid inertia when fundamentals change.________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and volatile market overview[00:00:47] Software investing and track record concerns[00:01:40] Three-year rule and exceptions[00:01:56] Position sizing after major moves[00:05:08] Markets feel inconsistent and strange[00:08:04] SaaS and growth investing tailwinds[00:09:43] Track records shaped by favorable cycles[00:13:49] Revisiting and questioning three-year rule[00:15:58] Cyclical tailwinds impacting outcomes[00:17:00] Value creation versus timing importance[00:19:49] Position sizing mistakes and inertia[00:22:52] Re-underwriting after losses[00:24:15] Risk management and cost limitsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my out of office has a forever setting. An IG Private Wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IG Private Wealth.com.
Starting point is 00:00:30 All right, hello and welcome to the Another Value Podcast. I'm your host, Andrew Walker. You're about to listen to my monthly random ramblings where I just pop on and ramble about four or five things happening in the market that I'm thinking about investing for about 30 minutes. I just ramble, ramble, ramble, ramble, ramble. Today I talk about, you know, first has to start with just the markets in general. And, you know, if you see me on the video, I'm just weighing my hands in the air to refer
Starting point is 00:00:53 to the markets with a lot of volatility. But I say this every month. I just find them very strange, very strange. After that, I want to talk about. software. And, you know, obviously we're coming on the heels of the SaaSpocalypse, but I had been thinking about software and people's track records as it relates to software and kind of how it's boosted people's track records and what that means and how to think about it over the past 15 years. Then I'm going to dive into, I've got a rule that I've mentioned a few times on the podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:20 If a stock doesn't go anywhere for three years, it's time to look in the mirror and say, is it me or is it the market? And, you know, it might be you after three years. But there are exceptions to that rule. And I've had some stocks recently where I exigated. after about three years and then they ripped higher and like, man, do I need to reassess this rule? So just kind of thinking, developing that framework. And then the last thing I'm going to talk about, again, the markets. I have seen so many stocks go down 30, 40, 50 percent on earnings, bad news, whatever. And I've owned stocks both this year and in the past that have gone down 30, 40, 50 percent
Starting point is 00:01:52 on earnings. So I just want to talk about, I spend some time talking about my thoughts on sizing and kind of changing your sizing after big, downwinds. or pick up moves in a stock. And I know, to use me personally, a lot of times I'll come in and the stock will be way down, and I'll just kind of not do anything. And that's not the right answer.
Starting point is 00:02:11 It's very unlikely that the exact number of shares you had that created a 10% position on Tuesday, the stock's on 50% on Wednesday, that exact number of shares that now gets you to about a 5% position. It's very unlikely that that is the right number. So just some thoughts on that. Anyway, we're going to get there in one second. As always, you can reach out to me
Starting point is 00:02:29 if you want to talk about this or anything else. We'll get to the ramblings one second, but first, word from our sponsors. Podcast is sponsored by Fiscal A.I. Fiscal.A.I is the complete stock research terminal for fundamental investors. With 20 years of standardized and as-reported financial statements, as well as one of the largest company-specific segments and KPI databases in the world, fiscal.a.I is one-stop shop for downloading and analyzing fundamental data. Want to compare Google's cloud growth weight to AWS? They make it easy.
Starting point is 00:02:57 Or I'll tell you one that I've been really interested in recently. I might even write a post on it sometime. You know what's crazy? Go look at Robin Hood's prediction markets revenue growth. I actually have the chart from fiscal AI right now, you know? In June of 2024, they're doing $24 million per year in prediction markets revenue. In December of 2025, they're doing $147 million in prediction market revenue. I mean, it's just up into the right.
Starting point is 00:03:20 And it's crazy. And I've just been thinking a lot about, you know, prediction markets revenue and the growth, the risk, the craziness. And I mean, you think about six months ago, the story for sportsmen. for online sports spending like Draft Kings and Flutter versus Robin Hood versus say, my God. Anyway, I'm completely off the subject. Let's get back to fiscal. com.
Starting point is 00:03:40 Within seconds, you can chart, compare, and export decades of data for more than 50,000 global experts. Not sure where a particular data point came from. Want to see where that 147 million or so of prediction market's revenue is coming from? Click through and you can see exactly where the number came from and go to the exact page in the company's filing. If you want to try it out for yourself, use my link, fiscal.
Starting point is 00:03:59 fiscal. a. a. slash y a. That's fiscal.a.i. slash yav. As in yet another value, YAV. To get two weeks free with no credit card required and you'll get 15% off of any of their paid plans if you choose to upgrade and sign it for it. Again, that's fiscal.a.i slash YAV and there'll be a link in the show notes as well. All right, hello and welcome to the yet another value podcast. I'm your host, Andrew Walker, here today, all by my lonesome for my monthly random ramblings of a complete lunatic. Before we get into that, you know, it's in the name, but it's just random rambling. So please remember nothing on this podcast is investing advice, consults financial advisor, do your own diligence, see the full disclaimer at the end of the podcast, or there's a
Starting point is 00:04:41 link in the show notes, the legal disclaimer. Hey, also, before I hop into it, I will let you know that if you could rate, review, subscribe to this podcast wherever you're watching or listening to it, you know, Spotify, YouTube, iTunes, wherever you're watching to listen to it. It actually really does help, you know, more viewers, me. it's easier to get guests on. When you go and tell I guess, hey, I've got 500 million people watching this podcast, they're more likely to come on than when you tell them and say, hey, it's me and my mom. It's just the two of us listening to this podcast.
Starting point is 00:05:09 So any of that would down. Again, and my mom doesn't even listen to this podcast. I'm sure she would if I asked her, but she didn't exactly into niche finance investing advice. Not investing advice. Nitch finance investing top. So let's dive into it. Look, I am recording this the afternoon of March 12. 20th, markets are just about to close, so you can keep that in mind. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:05:32 But I just want to, I'm going to start rambling about the markets. Then I always talk a little bit of software. I want to talk about some rules, all sorts of stuff. So let's just go into it. Markets, look, you know, I feel kind of silly because in my last random ramblings in February, I think I said like him, love him, hate him, whatever you want. Donald Trump, I think he is volatility personified. And, you know, I was just seeing lots of stuff where I thought he kept putting us to the brink of things. And I said, hey, at some point, the man is just going to keep amping up and up as we get closer to midterms and all the sort of stuff and as he gets, you know, more and more in the lame duck of presidency, and he's volatility
Starting point is 00:06:06 personified. It could be on the upside and he could be on the upside and eventually, you know, he likes to walk back things that are negative, but eventually you do something you can't walk back. Well, a couple weeks later, we bomb Iran and whether you view that positively or negatively, it's certainly been negative overall for the markets because, you know, we've got a perhaps energy crisis looming. Energy infects everything in the economy. You could have a recession, all sorts of stuff.
Starting point is 00:06:28 And I just, you know, I just, as soon as the bombs are going off, I was like, man, I said it on the podcast. I said volatility personified, but I don't think I was quite positioned for this much volatility. So the reason I mentioned that is, you know, I just, the markets, I always, I've been saying for probably two years, markets are weird, but it's just weird, you know, again, I'm recording this March 20th. And intramont, one month, the Russell is down 7%. The S&P 500 is down 5%. CNN Fear and Greed, which I like is a quick offhand. It says we're in extreme fear right now.
Starting point is 00:07:00 The VIX is around 26. I saw something that said we're more oversold right now than we were at the depths of the April tariff crisis. I strongly doubt that. But you're seeing all these things that suggest there's some real fear and churn in the market. And on one hand, I see that. I mean, I feel like I'm seeing stocks blow up left and right.
Starting point is 00:07:18 On the other hand, the Russell's only down 2% on the year. The S&P's only down 4%. like we're literally touching all-time highs on everything. Does that feel like extreme fear? Absolutely not. Does that feel like the right amount of down for, hey, we're going into a war and maybe having an energy crisis? Absolutely not.
Starting point is 00:07:36 Does that feel like the right amount of down for how many stocks I see? And maybe it's just, hey, Andrew, you follow crappy companies and they're all down. But for how many companies I see down 20, 30, 40 percent so far this year, 50, 60, I'll keep going higher and higher. No, it doesn't feel right. So it's, you know, again, I say this effort. I feel like I've been saying this for two years, but just strange markets. And I did a podcast.
Starting point is 00:07:59 I still need to get the post up at some point, but I did a podcast saying one of the things as games evolve, they actually get stranger and stranger. They start to look less and less normal. You know, I think of basketball with, right, the optimal strategy has become, you either shoot directly at the basket or directly behind the three point line and everything else is kind of exercise from the playbook. I wonder if that's just what's happening with markets. It's like as they get even more evolved, more competitive, more computers, more optimal strategies.
Starting point is 00:08:28 Maybe it's just, hey, Andrew, you're seeing worse up because markets are increasingly weird. That's kind of the next level of gameplay. I don't know. Speaking of stocks down 20 or 30 percent, look, I've been writing and thinking about the SaaS Poclapse and software stocks a lot. And I don't want to talk about those, but there is one thing I have been thinking about. Okay. If you and I rewound to early 2008, right?
Starting point is 00:08:51 If you remember, peak oil was 2004 to 2007, right? And oil prices go just screaming higher, peaking, I think, at $150 a barrel or so in early 2008. But if you and I reround the, reround, reround the clock, and we went to early 2008, and we saw somebody who had a great track record. And we looked and we said, hey, this guy is an energy specialist. I think we would rightly talk to each other and say, hey, is this guy really good? or has he just been enjoying a lot of tailwinds over the past five years, right? Similarly, if you and I rewind the clock and we went to somebody in late 1999,
Starting point is 00:09:28 and they were just all in all the invested universe internet, and they were just crushing the indices. I think we would rightly look at each other and say, hey, you know, first, it's always scoreboard, right? If you put up great results, scoreboard, scoreboard, scoreboard, scoreboard, you only get one life, that's all that matters. But when you're thinking about sustainability, performance, all that talent, and all that sort of stuff, I think it does matter when you're allocated.
Starting point is 00:09:48 If we went to late 1999, and there was a guy who was just all in on internet stocks, and he'd been following the internet for 10 years, and that's all he did. And he had a great track record. I think we would rightly look at each other and say, hey, is he great? Or was he enjoying a lot of beta? I had been thinking about that with software and garpy companies. I think for the past 15 years until basically the start of this year, it was an unbelievable time to be investing in growth in garpy companies.
Starting point is 00:10:16 You know, software had a thousand. different benefits, and there were some that struggled, but in general, if you invested in a software company, and I say software, but, you know, internet had a lot of these tailwinds, Garpe companies had a lot of these tailwinds, interest rates were coming down, all this sort of things. If you invested any of those, you probably had a great track worker, right? And you've actually got, the reason I chose it is because this went on for so long, you know, kind of 2010 to 2025, you have a great long-term track worker. And I have been wondering, the past couple months, as you've seen a lot of these, especially software companies, but also
Starting point is 00:10:54 GARP companies, growth as at a reasonable pricey companies, you've seen them imploding. And I have been wondering, you know, a lot of the people who built up great trackwords records in the 2010s to today, I think after this year, or if this year holds, if these stocks don't rebound, the track record is going to look a lot different. And I have been wondering, hey, how do you think, assess that, right? Was they just, were they the energy investors in 2004 to 2007 where, yeah, it was a longer time horizon, but because it wasn't a commodity, right? The reason you ding energy investors is because it's commodity. They're investing in commodity.
Starting point is 00:11:30 They can't control the price. So, yes, when they do great from 2004 to 2007, they were probably investing in smaller cap companies that are more leverage energy prices. You know, nobody would accuse a Garpeer software investor in 2011 of, hey, you've got commodity exposure, right? but when you think about it, a lot of them build great track records, and you can throw me in here if you want. I don't know. I've done something not to great success in my Garping software stocks. It's not what I do anymore.
Starting point is 00:11:57 And when I have dabbled my toe in it, I generally has proven not to be my strong suit. But, you know, I just wonder, because it was longer term, you know, again, this was like a 12, 15 year thing. And because there wasn't the commodity aspect to it and there wasn't a pure bubble main aspect to it as there was an attack crisis. I don't think people were questioning the track records as much, but you know, now you see it. And maybe this is because I've got gray hair starting to come out of my head, you know, you hear people talking about, hey, their track record was only built during one cycle. And, you know, once people start going to 10 years, you kind of start
Starting point is 00:12:31 ignoring that cycle. But it was generally an up into the right cycle. So just something I've been thinking about as the bloom has come off a lot of these former investor favors. And now maybe I'm a prisoner to the moment, right? Maybe this is the greatest buying opportunity in history. You are seeing insider buying at some of these software companies where you've never seen insider buying before. You are seeing aggressive buybacks starting at some of them, where you've never seen aggressive buybacks before. So the companies are starting to signal that maybe they see the value. Maybe this is a temporary dip. And, you know, nine months from now, somebody's going to throw this pot because of my face and say, hey, Andrew, you were talking about their track records aren't
Starting point is 00:13:07 going to look that great. You were a prisoner to the moment. Like it was a buying opportunity. they held through and the stocks, you know, are 10xists since then or something. I don't know. But it's just, and also I should note, I'm not trying to hate on any one investor or one particular group of investors. It just struck me as interesting, you know, again, the oil stuff. We would have said you wrote a commodity, say I went, the internet stuff. We would have said you wrote a bubble.
Starting point is 00:13:31 But because many of these software companies were not in a bubble and because the way you invested in many of them was with a business mindset and all this sort of stuff, I don't think any maybe I haven't heard it, but I don't think a lot of people I've really looked at the track record and thought about, hey, the underlying drivers behind it. And maybe it was, you know, maybe we're all just riding one big beta wave. So that was kind of a bummer. Again, not trying to call anyone out or anything. I'm sure I get emails all the time and, you know, I'll do something on a stock or a hypothetical investor. And somebody will say, you were definitely talking about this company or this investor. I don't even know that company, man. I don't even know that investor. In my head,
Starting point is 00:14:10 I'd be like, I was thinking about that investor or not this investor, but I'm not trying to call anyone specifically that's just something I've thinking about. And these are random ramblings, and I will ramble. Let me go to the other, another thing, kind of the counter to this. I've mentioned a few times on this podcast. I kind of have a rule now. If you're invested for a stock, and it's kind of three years is my rule. You're invested in a stock for three years, and it hasn't gone anywhere. And it's just kind of muddling along. It might be time for you to look in the mirror and say, maybe it's not the market, maybe it's me. And I'm not seeing this is foolproof.
Starting point is 00:14:44 But when I look at stocks where, you know, I've held them for a long time and not done that well, I think the history says after three years, if it hasn't worked, you really need to re-underwrite the thesis and everything. And again, you can quibble with a lot of things there. Maybe three years is too short. Maybe it should be five years. Maybe you need to evaluate a lot of other things. But I do think it's kind of a useful rule because, look, I'll have people.
Starting point is 00:15:08 all the time who will send me an interesting pitch. I read it. But they go, this is really interesting. They'll be like, yeah, full disclosure. This has been my largest position for 12 years. The stock is down 20% over those 12 years, but now is the time. And then I'm kind of like, eh, you know, and I don't want to be the person who's kind of waging the same war for 10 or 12 years.
Starting point is 00:15:28 You know, there are thousands of stocks out there. We can just, we don't have to fight the same battle on one stock. We can go find something new. And at some point, it's like, I am missing something. I am the problem. There's something wrong. with this business or I've been overlooking some risk. There's some reason.
Starting point is 00:15:41 So that's been my rule. And I've had a lot of people reach out when I say that rule and really enjoyed and had some good discussions. But there isn't other sides to the rule, right? I will look at a company that I use a position in. I wrote a pretty concentrated book. I'll look at a company that I used to have a big position in. And, you know, there are companies I punted on a year ago, 18 months ago.
Starting point is 00:16:01 And I look at them now and they're way higher. And I'll be like, whoa, what the half is happening here, right? And I have been wondering, like, when I talk about my three-year rule, hey, I don't have, like, back tests that say definitively three years is the mark or something. But, you know, if you're going to look at something that's you sold 12 months ago and now it's way up and you're going to say, hey, I've got this great three-year rule, well, how do you marry the two? So I don't know. Well, actually, I have one suspicion.
Starting point is 00:16:29 And I will note a lot of the companies that I punted on, let's call it 12, 18 months ago that are up way higher have written a big Iran tail. So I used to have a lot of energy exposure and now, you know, energy and commodities have screamed higher. And that is something to think about as well, right? Like I kind of bought these things in, let's say, 2020, thinking, hey, the cycle is towards the low. These things look cheap on an asset value basis.
Starting point is 00:16:54 And then in 2025, we started an approach in the three-year point. I was kind of like, well, they haven't really worked. There are other attractive things in my book. I am not an expert in energy. Maybe it's time to exit. And, you know, those things had a lot of stuff. cycle to them and the cycle has really boosted them. And that's not all, just saying. But that actually comes to the next one thing I've thought about with a Forever War, and maybe this is the brilliance
Starting point is 00:17:19 of Buffett and something he wrote, but the Forever War, where you hold a stock for 10 years, and, you know, it goes nowhere. One thing that helps is growth and value and value creation, right? And so I would say it this way. If you buy a business and it's growing and it's creating value, you know, Buffett's time is, time is the friend of a wonderful business. The nice thing there is, if you wait three years, right, you buy it and the stock price doesn't go anywhere for three years, the value has increased over that time, right? So you buy it at 20, you think it's worth 40. The stock's at 23 years later, but now you think it's worth 55, right?
Starting point is 00:17:56 Versus a lot of the companies, admittedly, I tend to deal in much smaller and crappier companies with hair on them, right? And when you buy those, the timing is really critical, right? So you buy it at 20 and you think it's worth 40. You fast forward three years, it's at 20. Well, you still think the value is 40, right? So it's not creating any value. You know, I think about this kind of in, if you, when I was a kid, we used to do time capsules.
Starting point is 00:18:23 You know, you would bury some, you dig up a hole, you'd bury something. You say people 10 years from now or 100 years from now, we'll dig this up. You know, if you had a time capsule that had $1,000 in it. If you bought, and it was bare, right? If you bought that time capsule for $100, you are guaranteed a 10x return. You unlock that time capsule tomorrow. It comes up. You get $1,000, best return, you know, insane IRA, the best investment of all time.
Starting point is 00:18:48 $100 to $1,000 overnight. Like, outside of getting lucky to a casino, where do you do that? Nowhere. But if you buy that time capsule and it doesn't unlock for 100 years, well, yes, you're guaranteed a 10x return, but that's a 3% IRA, right? So these crappy businesses, when you buy them and you say, it's worth 40 and it's trading at 20, it's all about the time. It's all about that unlock.
Starting point is 00:19:11 So maybe the answer to the three-year rule is also kind of like you've got to marry the catalyst and the valuation and everything. And again, investing is complex. I get told by some friends all the time. I just like, I want simple rules that I can always follow. And the unfortunate thing about investing is there is no simple rule in investing. It is very much marrying art and science and gut and math and all. all this sort of stuff. And there is no simple role. But I do think there is something to that was like, look, the three-year rule might matter more when you're buying the smaller companies
Starting point is 00:19:42 that I keep using smaller as a synonym for the companies that aren't great businesses, right, that don't throw off lots of free cash flow that aren't increasing their value. The three-year rule is, hey, you bought it. You couldn't unlock the value. It might be time to move on because after three years, you know, the value is not going to be unlocked. And look, maybe the answer is somebody comes along and manages to unlock it tomorrow, but you just kind of have to move on because you don't want to be stuck there forever versus a great business.
Starting point is 00:20:05 You buy it, and in three years, values higher, and the great thing is value just keeps compounded. So a little bit of ramble there, but something I've just been thinking about. Let me go to, I'm going to make this my last ramble here. Position sizing. I mentioned big blowups earlier, and this is, you know, stocks reporting earnings
Starting point is 00:20:26 and going down 40% or stocks reporting earnings and let's be an optimist going up 40%. And I will use myself as a model for this because it happens to plenty of investors and I am thinking about some investors I've talked to recently when I say this, but I'm using myself as the model for this because this problem absolutely, I run into it.
Starting point is 00:20:42 You go into an earnings report, whatever it is, some news. You own a thousand shares of a stock and the stock's trading at 10, right? And then the stock goes down 40% on the day or up 40%. Choose your number. I have an instinct, I know,
Starting point is 00:20:58 to do nothing, right, to digest, to think, to, and not just that day, right? Because I'm not saying you have to go day trade the moment of the news breaks, but to do nothing the next day, the next day, to do nothing for the next month. And you just kind of sit on it and not change. And I can guarantee you that's the wrong thing, right? If a stock is up or down 40%, your sizing the stock has changed materially and the news on the, the company fundamentals have absolutely changed materially, whether you're willing to submit or not. And it's really a lot. And it's really a lot. And it's really that if you went into that day, you know, owning a thousand shares, owning whatever it is, a 3% position, a 5% position, a 10% position, which is now, if it's down 40% of 10% of the position,
Starting point is 00:21:39 is now a 6% position. If it's up 40%, it's now 14% position. It's really unlikely that that specific share count and that sizing that was going into it is the right sizing for the new news, right? It's kind of crazy to be like, hey, it was right to be a 10% position yesterday. the stock's way lower, the risks have increased, so the right position is a 6% position today. And lo and behold, I don't have to trade a thing because I've come into a 6% position. So this is just something I'm pushing myself to, you know, the biggest losers I've ever have have been stocks where I invested them on one thesis. And then, you know, the stock went from 10 to 8.
Starting point is 00:22:20 And then I said, hey, I invested in this because I thought it was a good business. I thought it'd get that value base. I thought it'd increase value over time. Now it's 10 to 8. I don't think it's as good a business anymore, but now I think, hey, it's a little too cheap, right? It's a little too cheap. It's probably when I invested at 10, I thought it was worth 30. Now I think it's worth 20, but it's at 8, so plenty of upside and now I'm in it kind of on a
Starting point is 00:22:42 value-ish thesis. And they report another earnings, and now it's five. I say, oh, well, you know, I don't think it's good business anymore. I think this is a crappy company, but now it's worth five. And, you know, I think it's strategic value to an employer who come in and fire everyone is 12. minimum. And I think the board's going to do this. And then it goes from five and, you know, it goes to three. Say, hey, now it's just a liquidation play. So the biggest loss that I've come, you know, all of a sudden you've wrote is stock from 10 to 2 and you've changed your thesis the whole way.
Starting point is 00:23:09 That's the biggest mistakes I've ever made, the biggest losses I've ever taken. And a really nice way to change that is you have to re-underwrite, right? When you go from 10 to 8, in my example, I just said, down 20%. Well, very unlikely that your position sizing is correct now, right? So you kind of have to say, hey, do I want to be adding? I either need to, you know, if you force yourself to either say, I must add or subtract, you can kind of force yourself into action. And I think if the answer is subtract, the right answer might just be blow out of the whole position. And if the answer is add, you know, doubling down is very risky. You have to be very careful with that. But if the answer is ad, you know, you really need to reunderwrite the position. So just something I've been
Starting point is 00:23:49 thinking about. And I thought I'd share out there with people. And, you know, obviously I'm always type of swap thoughts, but, you know, we're in a rough environment. Things are, I guess we're always in a rough environment. It's stock market. Stock market's hard. But things are blowing up left and right. And if you had a company that you own that, you know, you got a, I'm just going to make the numbers of you. You had a 10% position and the stock goes out 40% and you haven't traded the stock at all. I'm going to push on you and say, hey, probably self-optimal. And I would guess the right answer is you probably should be selling the stock and reducing your position. And again, nothing here's investing advice, I'm just saying, I think if you're sitting there saying, hey, you know,
Starting point is 00:24:26 this thing that was a 10% position off earnings, but now I'm here for the value. And I think a 6% position is right. I think you're probably kidding yourself. And it probably should be a 0% position and you should come back next month and reevaluate or you should be redeploying. There are exceptions, obviously. I think the biggest exception is sizing, obviously. And what I mean by that is this. If you have a 10% position, it's up 50% all of a sudden, it's roughly a 15% position, and you think the answer is to be adding, is to be adding. You know, it's really hard to add. Once you start getting to a 15, 20% position, you start running into risk weighting issues
Starting point is 00:25:00 and sizing issues and all that. So there is something to, hey, I should be adding, but I just can't for sizing reasons, right? That's absolutely a thing. And on the other side, I mentioned doubling down's risky. I do think one of the greatest risk tools I've heard people talk about, I try to use it. It can be very hard, but is at cost.
Starting point is 00:25:20 limits, right? Where you say, hey, I will not put more than 5, 8, 10% of the book into something at cost. So even if you have 5% of the book in something at cost at 100 and it goes down to 10, you literally cannot add to that because you're maxed out at cost, even though now it's a 50 basis point position. Though I would say, again, once something goes from 110, probably just time to sell. When something goes from 140, probably just time to sell. But that can be a really useful tool to avoid doubling down. The famous thing is, start off of 1% position, double down, double down, double down, all of a sudden you've lost 8% of the book on something that's a 1% position when it just keeps going down and down and down. And the other nice thing about,
Starting point is 00:26:00 and I'm trying to be better about not doubling down, about implementing this, but the other nice thing about having at cost limits is you have to start talking to yourself about, hey, what's the path look like from here? Do I want to be, you know, 5% at cost is your limit? Do I want to be at 5% right now? Or do I think this is a volatile stock? Do I want to have a little bit where, hey, I think earnings might be, I think it might be volatile around earnings. Do I want three percent at cost now so that if earnings come out and the stock is weak, even though I think the business is getting better or something, I've gotten another 2% to add or trade or something.
Starting point is 00:26:33 So I think I'm going to wrap it up there. That was, yeah, there were some other stuff I wanted to talk about, but you know it's a ramble and this has been about 30 minutes. So it's been a ton of fun. I am excited. I believe March 20th. Today's the first day of spring. I'm excited for the weather to get better.
Starting point is 00:26:48 better. I'm going to be out there trying to run a little bit more and get some of my running cardio up because I do like to lift, but you don't care about that. What am I saying? Look, I appreciate all of you listening. I think we've got some great podcasts coming up in the near future. As always, I'm always happy to talk about anything I mentioned on the podcast, anything I've talked with other guests on the podcast. Anything I can talk about the blog. Reach out to me. I'm not too hard to find. Appreciate you listening. Don't forget to leave that, like, subscribe, review, wherever you're watching or listen to it. And I'll talk to you on some podcast next week. and on another random rambling in the month of April.
Starting point is 00:27:21 Talk to you then. A quick disclaimer. Nothing on this podcast should be considered an investment advice. Guests or the hosts may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast. Please do your own work and consult a financial advisor. Getting ready for a game means being ready for anything. Like packing a spare stick. I like to be prepared.
Starting point is 00:27:44 That's why I remember 988 Canada suicide crisis helpline. It's good to know just in case. Anyone can call or text for free confidential support from a train responder anytime. 988 suicide crisis helpline is funded by the government in Canada. Thanks.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.