Yet Another Value Podcast - Midyear 2025 podcast ideas updates

Episode Date: July 10, 2025

In this solo update, host Andrew Walker revisits his three 2025 stock ideas (disclosure: long all three!): Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Keros Therapeutics (KROS), and Full House Resorts (FLL). He breaks down Sage’s acquisition by SUPN and the chance of a higher bid from Biogen, discusses Keros’ announced capital return, and digs into why Full House Resorts has lagged so far despite promising insider buying and strong project progress. Andrew also highlights why active shareholder engagement still matters and how insider moves can reveal conviction.For links to the prior podcast ideas and open letter, please see this post: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/midyear-2025-podcast-ideas-updatesChapters[00:00:00] Andrew opens midyear update.[00:01:00] Recaps Sage, Keros, Full House.[00:07:33] Sage sold, Biogen topping bid?[00:14:27] Keros capital return progress is slow.[00:18:44] Full House lagging; insider buying.[00:27:59] CEO massive buy from ex-wife.[00:30:30] Refinancing risk key catalyst ahead.Links:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

You're about to listen to the yet another value podcast with your host, me, Andrew Walker. Today I am going to be doing a update on the three ideas that I kind of solo presented to you guys over the first half of the year. That's an update on Sage Therapeutics. That's an update on Caros and that's an update on Full House Resorts. Disclamer, disclosure, I am long all of these stocks. I give a couple more disclosures, disclaimers in the podcast. There's a full disclaimer at the end of the podcast. So remember that. You know, updates are always interested. I think there's been, I know there's been interesting news at all of these companies. So I wanted to take a second and give those updates, kind of put a bow on two, one and a half,

two of the three, and give an update on where everything stands. I'll let you get to that. I hope you like, I hope you listen to it. And I'll let you get to that. But first, a word from our sponsors. Today's podcast is sponsored by DeLupa. Are you still manually updating your financial models after earnings? Ask yourself, why?

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hey, you had guests X-Y-Z want to talk about the stock ABC six months ago. Let's get an update. the stock's down 20%, it's up 100%, whatever, let's get an update. You know, it's hard to get a guest on to do the update. But one of the nice things when you are the host of your podcast and you come on every now and then and talk ideas on your own is you can force yourself to come on the podcast for update. So today is July 7th.

I pitched three ideas throughout the year solo pitches where, you know, I get on here and talk about an idea for 30 minutes, 20 minutes, an hour, five hours, who knows. But today I'm going to be doing an update on the three ideas. that I talked about so far this year. Those are Sage, Caros, and FLL. Full disclosure, I am longed all of those stocks. On top of that disclosure, I'll add a disclaimer that nothing on this podcast is investing device.

There's a full disclaimer at the end of this podcast, but I'll remind you of two things on the disclaimer. Again, I'm long all three of these stocks. And the second disclaimer is, hey, last week I do a random rambling every week. And I forgot to turn the microphone on. So for 30 minutes, it was just me waving my arms. crazy and saying nothing. So that's always the 30 minutes. That's 30 minutes. I'll never get back and just ask yourself, hey, this guy claims to be a professional, semi-professional,

whatever it is, podcast, he can't turn a microphone on. Should I be listening to him about anything? Probably not. So those are the disclaimers. You know, I'll just give a, there's a slide. Oh, by the way, for those of you who normally listen on audio, I tried to make all of these audio only no visuals. But, you know, when it's just me coming on talking about an idea for 20, 30 minutes, whatever, it can help to have a little bit of help. So if you want to, if you normally do audio, if you want to come over to the YouTube and watch the video, might be helpful. I have some slides that are literally just screenshots of SEC filings, but if you want to hop over the YouTube, you can see those, but I'll try to auditoryly explain everything. So I don't think you'll

miss anything if you listen on video. Anyway, while we're at it, disclaimer, there's a disclaimer slide that I'm showing on the YouTube. I gave you the disclaimer online. You can go to the end of the podcast and listen to it. Let's hop into it. So, so far this year, I have, done three what I call solo ideas. It's me getting on and talking about a stock, a stock a situation for all three of these. Again, I'm long. I've thought about doing stocks that I'm not long and I might in the future because, you know, as I've gotten increasingly into corporate governance, you can go down some deep and very dark rabbit holes. And I might try to shine a light on some situations. But the three ideas I've done so far is episode 283 right at the start

of the year I did my full house resorts idea of the year for 2025. Episode 292, I did a special situations on Sage Therapeutics, and episode 305, I did avoiding the zombie biopharm trap at Caros. I'll include a link to all of those episodes kind of in the show notes or in the links or whatever if you want to go listen to those episodes. On top of those three ideas, I also did an open letter to the Sage board that I published on May 1st of 2025. I'll include a link there. You can go read it. And I said, hey, Sage, I did this original podcast on it. And when I did the Sage podcast, at the time, the idea was, hey, you know, I look at Sage and Sage had been put into play by Biogen.

Biogen had made them an offer. And I said, Sage, you have two options. You know, it makes complete sense for, I called it the good girl route along the lines of my dog, Penny. You can be a good girl like Penny is, and there was more to do than that. But you can do what's right for shareholders, and you can run a process and sell yourself to the highest bidder, or you can be a bad girl. and you can, because your board of management own nothing, you can refuse to sell yourself

and burn all your cash and burn this company to the ground. And I published the podcast hoping they'd go the good girl route. I published the open letter when it seemed to me like they might want to go the bad girl route. And fortunately for everyone, as we'll discuss, it kind of has ended up for the best. I also published an open letter to the Caros board on May 9th. You know, two left open letters in a week.

It was an exciting time. Caros open letter, extremely similar to the Sage letter. Look, your subscale biotech, your lead drugs have failed. You need to do what's right for shareholders. So those are kind of the public things that I've done. I'll include a link in all the internet for all of them. So I just wanted to give that background. So we're going to talk Sage.

We're going to talk Caros. We're going to talk at Thel. Let's start with the easiest company to update. That company is Sage. The thesis here was Sage in early January. Biogen had put Sage in play. The Sage's stock at the time was low fives, biotin offered low sevens per share. I went in my podcast and my open letter and said, look, Sage should no longer be a public

company. The value to an acquireer is much higher than the share price as is. I think the company needs to sell themselves. And I've got another slide here, winner, winner chicken dinner. Because earlier this month, Sage entered a deal to sell themselves for $8.50 per share plus a CVR. Now, here's the thing. They're getting acquired.

This is the simplest story because, guess what, in six weeks, eight weeks, Sage isn't going to be a public company anymore. They're going to be gone. They're going to be off the board. But, you know, I'm not just doing this update to take a victory lap and spike the football, even though it is a little bit of that. I've been told by people, hey, you know, if you're going to rub your nose in the losers and God knows, I'll rub my nose and losers.

You need to celebrate the winners a little bit more, be a little more public. So, yeah, I am spiking the football a little bit. Deal with it. But I don't think it's the end of the story here. So, say, just getting acquired by Suparnas. Supernus is a nice, a nice pharmaceutical company. I don't know a lot about them. They are paying, if you're on the YouTube, I've got screenshots of the press release.

Supernis is paying $8.50 per share plus a CVR. The $8.50 per share, let's focus on that. If you read the proxy statement, sorry, the tender docs, and you should, I did a full, deep, deep dive into the tender statements because they are some of the craziest tender statements I've ever seen on the premium side. I won't dive into it too far, but if you read the tender statement, the CVR is kind of, there's a lot of miles signs, only one of the smaller milestones really likely to get hit. I think that's interesting to know of itself, but let's just focus on the cash portion. Sopernis is paying $8.50 per share in cash. That's $561 million.

That's interesting. Why? Because S.H had $424 million of cash on their balance sheet at the end of March 31st, 2025. call it 400 after cashburn when the acquisition go through, whatever. However you put it, Sage is getting inquired for the equity value is, as I just said, $561 million. Sage is going to have, call it $400 million, whatever. Sage is getting acquired for less than $200 million enterprise value. That's really interesting me because if you read Sage's tender docs, they had a royalty deal

that would let them borrow $200 million against their lead drug. So Sage is getting acquired for less than the Royalty. financing that this lead drug was work. And I'm calling this the dog that didn't bark, because if you'll recall from my original podcast, my original thesis, the best buyer. The only buyer who makes any sense for Sage is Biogen. Because remember, Sage's two assets. They're a pile of cash and they're the JV asset that JVed with Biogen on Zerzuvay. It makes absolutely no sense for any other buyer of Sage to be the buyer except for Biogen because Biogen can take that 50-50 JV and collapse it. There's huge synergies there. They know the asset best. There's some niche cases

where a royalty buyer might be a better buyer of Sage, but there's this side. No operating company should be buying Sage except for Biogen. I call this the dog that's embarked because if you read the tender dots, Biogen is not involved in the sales process at all after they kick off the sales process. And I remain firmly convinced that Biogen is the best better here. So what I would say is I don't think this story is over. I think Biogen will be heard from. I think there's a decent chance that biogen comes up with the topping bid. Again, I'm recording this July 7th. The tender docs just came out late last week. It's possible that, you know, I'll probably get this up July 9th, July 10th. Tomorrow's Monday. It's possible biogen comes with a better bid on

July 8th. It's possible. It comes a week after, two weeks after. It won't be three weeks after because the tender will be done. So they're going to have to move pretty fast. I anticipate they will. Again, the fact that this company is getting acquired for less than a royalty buyer was willing to finance this drug, to me screams that this is a bid that's designed to be, And I would just say one thing. Look, Biogen is the best bidder here. I've got a screenshot here from Biogen's Q1 earnings call. They do the typical little IR thing where the I person comes on and says,

welcome to Biogen's Q1 earnings call. And then the CEO comes on, he says, hey, we've got a new CFO. Welcome. And the first drug he mentions, literally the first paragraph, first drug he mentions Biden to aim is Zerzeubei. And I would say two things. Biogen, we have two options. Number one, if you can't pay more than a royalty company,

was willing to finance Sage's share of this key drug that you mentioned, the first thing you mentioned in your earning call, there's two options. Number one, your shareholders should say you are full of baloney. You should never mention this drug again. You have no belief in the value with this drug. Absolutely not. You can never mention again. You think it's basically a worthless drug, right?

That's option one. Option two is, guys, your discount rate, if you can't top what a kind of royalty financer would did with all your synergies and everything, If you can't help with a operating company who's going to have no synergies when they take this JPM. If you can't top that, you can never do MNA again because you guys are the worst acquires of all time. You have no clue how to value a company. You have no clue how to evaluate synergies. You can never do M&A again.

It's one of those two options if they don't come over the top or stage. That's bluntly how I would put it. It would be absolute insanity to me if Biogen didn't come over the top. And the only reason it could be is if biogen is full of malarkey when they, mentions resume in public or if the management team is absolutely brain dead when it comes to seminate. So that's Sage. Last thing I want to point out here. Again, I'd encourage you to read the tender docs. I have published a full post in breaking down. It's some of the most interesting, fascinating, crazy tender docs I've ever seen. But I wanted to point out one thing here. When you

read Sage's tender docs, there is an interesting line that says, as Sage's strategic alternatives process progress, certain stockholders also wrote to the board expressing frustration with the length of time the process was taking, giving Sages, continuing cash utilization. And I would just like to say, A, thank you, Sage, is bored. It's nice to be seen in the proxy. I say that facetiously. But the real thing is, look, people ask, why do you do these open letters? Why do you publish the podcast? This is the reason. Companies need to hear from their shareholders. If you're a shareholder, you're a shareholder for one reason. You want the stock to go off. You want the stock to work. You want the company to be more value, want to maximize the value.

Sage's board was clearly feeling the heat from their shareholders. You know, I am one, I've disclosed that. I think that people, when they heard the podcast the first time when they saw my open letter, I think they contacted the board and let them know what their views were. And I'm not trying to form a group with anyone. I just believe in good shareholder engagement. This is what you're doing it for, right? You want the board to feel a little bit of heat.

This board who doesn't own any stock, who, in my opinion, would have preferred not to run a process, continue collecting paychecks, continue to collect everything, have their prestige of being on a board. They wanted the status quo. The only reason they don't have the status quo, one of the reasons they don't have the status quo is they were feeling extreme heat from shareholders. And yes, there were some shareholders that were larger than me, larger than any of my listeners who I'm sure were putting just as much pressure on the board. But the fact is 50 small shareholders writing letters to the board, reminding the board of their fiduciary duty, that carries a lot to wait. So I just wanted to call this out when people say, oh, these open letters, these

podcasts, they're silly. In my opinion, they're not. I don't think they were in Sage's opinion if you read this tender doc. I think it was a real needle mover and kind of getting the process going. And later on in the process, you would see if you read the backgrounds of the tender docs, they start referring, hey, we need to get this process done before the annual meetings takes place. I think the shareholder engagement, they realized the annual meeting is going to be embarrassed for us. If it goes on beyond the annual meeting, it's going to get really embarrassing for us. So I do think good engaged shareholders can really impact a process and help drive a good outcome. Does it mean it's guaranteed? But I think it certainly helps. And this

is just one thing I would point to one example of that. So that wraps up stage. I'm probably never going to have to talk about this company again because, again, in six to eight weeks, they'll be gone. I hope, expect that they will be gone to biogen, we'll make a topping offer and they'll be gone to biogen. But it's possible to go to Spernus. And if so, Sopernis is going to have made an incredible acquisition because they acquired Sage for an absolute song after the cash and the value of the Zerzziw the asset we're taking to come. Let's move on to KRS. Look, Keras, great time in my end.

I basically published the podcast for memory. I published it on a Wednesday in early April and on Thursday, a Friday, KRS came out and announced strategic alternatives. So great time in my end. The stock has gone a lot higher. But I'll be honest with you. This is a nice start. I think there's more to go.

So if you're watching on YouTube, I've got a clip from the announcement of the excess capital return that Caros made when they concluded their strategic alternatives, and they said, hey, we're returning 375 million to shareholders. That's a nice start. Caros had 720 million of cash and equivalents on their balance sheet at the end of Q125. Are they burning cash? Yes. In my opinion, Ashburn is way, way too high here. This is a company whose key late stage products either failed or have been part. They have one early stage drug and a couple of preclinical drugs. A company with one early stage drug and a couple of preclinical drugs does not need 300 plus million in cash on the balance sheet. It's not only extremely inefficient. It's a sign that the management team wants to go and do a lot of things that, in my opinion, are suboptim for shareholders. So with CAROS, I'd say, hey, we've had a nice start.

The company announced strategic alternatives, but there is more work to be done. is more work to be done. First, while they said, hey, we're returning $375 million, they haven't announced how they're returning it yet. They haven't decided how they're returning it. Are they going to do a tender offer? Are they going to do a dividend? Are they going to do something I haven't dreamed up yet? I don't know. Probably get tender offer a dividend because there's only so many ways you can return cash to shareholders, I guess, accelerated stock repurchase and stuff. But, you know, I would just note that there's more work to be done because I think the company held on to too much cash. I think the company needs to

significantly bring down its cash burn. I think the company needs to look at ways to return some of the partnership value that they have to show. So nice work so far. Again, if you remember my first podcast, I did it and I published the open letter because I became increasingly concerned that the management team and parts of the board were not aligned with shareholder. So shareholders, so I think there's more work to be done. I think more cash should be returned. I think the company needs to explore bringing the cash burn down dramatically. And I would just note, I don't think I'm alone in this. What I've got here is a screenshot from alongside the catholic return. They published the results of the annual meeting. Three directors, this is a staggered board.

Three directors ran. One director who belongs to their largest or second largest shareholder received an overwhelming number of votes for. The other two directors, one of them, if you add up the votes withheld and broker nonvotes, she basically, I believe, should have resigned on the this and the author director, very, very close call between the votes, basically 50-50 votes for and both results. Given that they had a support agreement with one shareholder, I think this was a disastrous result for the board. I think it's one of the reason you got $375 million back. I think it should have been more. I'd note I'm not from a group, but 80-era one, who is now Caros's largest shareholder published APR that said, hey, troubling results of 2025 director

election, insufficient capital return. I agree. I think if shareholders keep the pressure on the board, given those board vote results, I don't know how the board would not get the memo here. And I fully, fully hope and expect more capitals be returned to shareholders in the near-to-medium term. And if not, given the shareholder vote results, you know, Godspeed to the non-aligned directors at the next medium. All right. Let's go to the last company I want to talk about, full house resorts. So look, we did two. It's fortunate timer, small, sample size, all that.

We did do two winners with Sage and Caros to start. Let's go to Full House Resorts and let's rub my nose in it. So far, this was my idea of the year for 2025. So far, it has not worked out super well. The stocks down about 10% year to date. A lot of that, I think, can be attributed to sector. The gaming sector has not been great so far this year. You know, if you're on the YouTube, I've got a screenshot of kind of the most direct peers.

There are some smaller peers out there, but, you know, Full House is a lot smaller too. But a pen down 10% so far this year. Caesar is down 15%. Boyd is actually up about 7, 8%, MGM, about flat on the year. So there's been a little bit of negative sector beta, and given full house is the most levered of all of these companies on kind of just the headline basis, probably not surprising that they're towards the bottom.

You know, I personally, I've been reasonably pleased with how the year has gone for FLL. So if you'll recall, the thesis for FLL is, this is a small cap company that through kind of a miracle, excellent operative, they are bringing online to, giant, two giant casino projects inside of, you know, 24 months. So the one that's going to be the most valuable is American Place outside of Illinois, outside of Chicago and Waukegon, Illinois. This is they invested, let's round it up to 200 million to bring a tent, literally a giant tent.

If you read, it's, if you read, I've got the quote, it's the type of structure that your municipality uses the sore salt for the winter. They opened a temporary casino there, spent about $200 million. That is doing phenomenally, phenomenally well. They're going to spend another about $300 million to turn that into a full facility. I believe all in, they'll have spent $500 million, and at the end of the day, it'll be a casino that does $100 million in EBIT. So this, in my opinion, is the most valuable, most important project for full house. And the good news here is this is just, it is doing fantastically well. At the very top of this slide, I've got to quote from their Q1 result, vaults. They are having record months, basically every month right now. All time record in March,

April was really good. You can go look at the state level data. May was the second best month of all time just behind March. The temporary is doing great, and I think there's every sign that once they open the full casino, the full casino is going to do well. The other update on American places, if you recall when I did the podcast, there was, in my opinion, a nuisance lawsuit that stopped them from going with the full project. I was pleasantly surprised in January the Illinois Supreme Court dismissed the nuisance lawsuit or ruled in favor of the Gaming Commission. So that takes the tail risk up, hey, what if the, what if it's delayed indefinitely? That takes that off the table. The company can now, they're going to start building the permanent casino towards the end of this

year, really get this thing done in 2026 and opened in 2027. So the tail risk of what if the license lost everything? That's gone. Now. you do have risks of financing and actually constructing it. Those are obviously big risks, but the tail risks are off. I think American Place is full speed ahead. I think the thing, if it does $100 million EBITDA, as I hope and expect, and I think the results right now are suggesting they might do better than when it opens in full. It's going to be worth all of the company's enterprise value and more, in my opinion.

So that's doing great. That's ahead of schedule. The negative is Colorado, Chamonet. If you'll recall from the first podcast, this is the, casino that they opened up in Cripple Creek. The Cripple Creek market was characterized by there's a casino, what is it, Dynamite Dix Casino. No, no, the Brass S casino, across the street is the Brass S casino, the restaurant there is Dynamite Dix. That gives you an idea of what the Cripple Creek market was. You know, it's a penny slot play. People drink and be drinking butt

heavies and playing penny slots. They built Chamon, which is a upscale French luxury resort. They said, hey, we're going to build it. We're going to transform this market. I think if it's successful, it's going to be one of the highest multiple casinos in the country because the dynamics of the market are so unique. It's basically a historical town. No one will be able to build and respond with a competitive casino. You know, I was really excited about it. I've been out there.

I think it's a great-looking casino. It's ramp slower than I expected. Now, hard stop. It's slower than I expected, much slower than I expected, too. You know, the company, they fired the GM. They said, hey, he was over his head. in Q1, they went, they did some undercover, you know, like guy undercover, getting to know the operation, fired the GM, brought a new guy. It's going on a lot slower than I expected. I was hoping for kind of next year, year after that, 50 million EBITDA. At this point, I'd be pleased with 25 million EBITA. I think the company still hopes to get to 50 million EBITA, but it's one of those things, you know, hey, we'll get there someday, you know, kind of before the heat death of the universe, we think this will do 50 million EBITA. So I think that's going slower. All in, I'd say this story is. you know, American Place doing better and that being the most valuable casino,

Cribble Creek doing much worse and that kind of being what I think would be the highest multiple, though not the most valuable because the marketplace is going to do two and a half times the EBITDA that Cripple Creek does slight negative, but I think the story's on track, to be honest with you. You've taken off the tail risk, American Place is doing great, I think the story's on track. The next thing here is, and the reason I kind of wanted to do an update on Full House is insiders clearly see the same upside idea. This is a quote from the company's Q4 earnings call. You can read it.

You can go look it up if you want, but the basics is the CEO, who again, I'm kind of a fanboy of all of my biases. The CEO walks through a bunch of math and he says, look, when I put our model together, I kind of think we're worth $45 per share once all of this is said and done and everything ramps up. And, you know, take some growth projects that I think are going to out, I think are to happen. I'll take some time value. Whatever you want to do, it's hard for me not to get to $20 per share of value. Again, we're talking about a stock that closed at $4 per share. So if it's $20 per share

value, five years from now, and I think he's time discounting once he gets set at 20, that's a buy beggar over five years. It could be significantly more. So I think the insiders clearly continue to see the upside that I see. And I would point to something that, look, there's words or one thing, but insiders are backing their actions up with one word. Eric Green, who is the director for the first time in a long time, he bought 25,000 shares at $3.40 per share in mid-May, right when the window opened up. That's not a small buy. That's $75,000 worth of $75,000 plus worth of stock.

Eric made $62,000 per year of cash comp as a director. So more than one year's worth of director fees going into buying stock on the open market, increases his stock ownership by more than 10%. So would I love to see more? Would I love to see every director just buying constantly? Yes, but this was a significant insider buy for a director who doesn't have a ton of history insider buying here. So that's one time. But the really big one, the headliner, the one that I've been waiting to tell you guys all about, is Dan, the CEO.

On June 13th, my birthday, happy birthday to me. Dan makes an enormous, enormous, enormous insider buy over 270,000 shares at $4.75 per share. Now, what's interesting about this? First, over 270,000 shares, let's round it up 1% of the company he buys in one fell swoop. It's under 1%, but we can round it to 1%. It's well over 50 basis points of the company he buys. So this is an enormous buy. But did you rate the price, I said, $4.75 per share?

I've got on the YouTube a stock chart, a full house resort stock. The stock hasn't traded for $4.75 since March 1st. At the time that he does this buy, the stock is trading for $3 per share, right? So he goes out and he buys over, he negotiates, and I'll talk about the negotiations in a second, he negotiates and buys 1% of the company at a more than 50% premium to the prior day's closing price. And this is the same CEO who went on the Q4 earnings call and laid out the math for him to get $45, you know, he said $45 per share in value. look, if that's not actions backing up for us, I don't know what is.

And now, you'll notice I said negotiate. If you read the fine print of the form for and kind of dig around a little bit, he buys some of the shares for himself. He buys the majority of shares for a trust account for his kids. And who does he buy the shares from? He buys the shares from his ex-wife. And again, I don't know Dan. I don't know his ex-wife.

His ex-wife is a member of the House of Representatives. is. So she's a political figure. And you can Google. The divorce looked kind of contentious to me. You can Google it around. It looked contentious to me. What divorce isn't, right? But I would just say, if you go and your ex-wife owns, and I think it had been drag on the stock, the Dan Tep's filing form fours and it was his ex-wife selling shares and everything. So he took her out of this in one fell swoop, too. But I would just posit that if you've got a, you know, a well-known, insider figure who buys 1% of the company from his ex-wife, who he's going through a contentious divorce with, closes up the contentious divorce by buying 1% of the company and puts it

all in trust accounts for his kids, which is very tax advantage, which is why I'm saying that. There's an old Peter Lynch saying that is insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, right? They might have a kid graduating. They might have medical bills. They might want to buy a house. They might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one. They think the price will rise. Great, famous Peter Lynch quote has survived for 30 years, very popular among value investors. I'm giving you my new Andrew Walker quote. I think it's better than the Peter Lynch quote. I expect royalties if you ever use this. I expect it to be written about in books, scholars, hundreds of years from now, the human race, thousands, tens of

thousands, millions, the human race will die out. This quote will live on and I expect it to be, this is my legacy here. Insiders buy for only one reason. They think the price will rise, but they only buy from their ex-wife at a 50% premium to the market prices for their children's trust account when they think the stock will rise by a heck of a lot. That's Andrew Walker. That's my new quote. That's my legacy. That's what I want to leave you with. So look, that's full house. Oh, I'm trying to end on my quote. And I've got one more thing I wanted to. I think one of the things that's holding the company back is they have to do a big refinancing. They need to raise 300 million of incremental financing, which probably means an entire company refinancing in order to get the cash to buy, to build American place.

And Full House, you know, it's under $150 million market cap company at current prices. So I think people look and say, oh, my gosh, you know, it's a $600, $700, $8 million refinancing if they're going to raise that incremental money plus refinance all their debt, $150 million company, oh, my God, that's really hard. I would just note that right alongside when kind of Dan makes this inside a buy, he signs a new, a new CEO contract that takes them to for another five-ish years, lots of interesting stuff inside of it. But the one that I wanted to point out was this debt overhang, Dan will get a $300,000 bonus if the company successfully refinances the company's principal debt by March 30,

2027. Dan has consistently said they're going to get a refinancing done without raising any equity. I think if and when the refinancing is done, there's two major risks on the stock at this point. Number one, the refinancing. Number two, construction overages at American Place. I think when the refinancing gets done, that's a huge, huge uncertainty removed from the stock. I think the stock will go up significantly if there's no equity-raised dilution associated with it. I expect there will be no equity-raised dilution associated with it. Dan is very incentivized for there to be no equity-raised dilution associated with it because, A,

he just bought almost 1% of the company, and B, he's been saying for a while there will be no equity-raised. Anyway, in his contract, he now gets a $300,000 bonus if they refinance it. I think they will get a refinancing done in the back half of this year. I think when that happens, that insider buy is going to look very, very prescient because I think the stock will go up quite a bit as the market adjusts to, hey, refinancing risks off the table, dilution risks off the table. All we need now is the casinos get built on budget, on time, it's ramp up. That's a big if, but I think it really takes uncertainty away.

Look, we're two for three. Sage worked out really nicely. I think there's more upside there. KRS worked out really nicely. I think there's more upside there. Sage, upside, we'll know in the next few weeks if there's a buy-in offer. KRS probably take a little bit longer, but I think with continued shareholders saying, hey, I'm a concerned shareholder and you're keeping too much money.

Management separate. The cashburn's too high for the assets the company have. I expect upside there. I expect upside at Sage. And for FLL, so far it's a loser. It's down 10% of the year. As it's up. Russell's flat, yeah, it sucks, but this is a small microcar company, it can be a little sticky.

I think there is a heck of a lot of upside over the next few years as the refinancing gets on. American Place comes on in full. The new GM at Cripple Creek kind of comes on and gets cost of mine. I think there's a heck of a lot of upside, but it's not just me. It's the insiders. They're signaling constantly. They're saying they see the upside, and they're backing those words up with actions that share the upside. So, you know, I'm really excited.

It's been a little bit slower than I thought, but I'm really happy to have FLL as a big position for me personally. Again, that's my disclosure. I'm really happy to have FLL as my pick of the year for 2025. I think the back half of the year is going to make me look good. And if the back half of the year doesn't, I'm positive. 2006 and 2007 are going to make it look good. And I think in the mediums long term, it's going to look like a really prescient pick. So that is my rambling for my mid-year update.

dates. I am hoping that my microphone worked and I don't have to re-record this or something. I'm looking forward to doing a ramlings talking to you guys in the next several weeks. I've got some really good guests lined up for July. So I'm looking forward to all that. Thank you for watching. Again, I'd encourage you if you want to go watch on YouTube, you can see the slides and everything I was talking to. I'll include links to all the prior podcasts, all the open letters, everything that you want on probably get another value blog.com where I post this, but I'll try and get them in the show notes too. And thank you for listening. Thank you for for watching and we will talk soon. A quick disclaimer, nothing on this podcast should be

considered investment advice. Guests or the host may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast. Please do your own work and consult a financial advisor. Thanks.