Yet Another Value Podcast - Random Ramblings FEB 2025: Libra, changing your mind, lucky vs. unlucky stocks, hands-on research

Episode Date: February 28, 2025

Welcome to the February 2025 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: Libra and Argentina, some things you've learned that changed your mind recently, lucky or unlucky stocks and doing hands-on research and personal experience.Chapters:[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense[2:45] Libra and Argentina[7:38] Changing your mind[16:32] Lucky or unlucky stocks[18:46] Hands-on research and personal experienceToday's sponsor: AlphasenseIf you’re unfamiliar with AlphaSense, it’s a market intelligence platform with the world’s premier library of proprietary expert insight. For years now, I’ve used Tegus for their expert call transcript library, and with AlphaSense’s acquisition, the depth and breadth of market research content available has expanded significantly.Why I chose AlphaSense?Unparalleled expert insights—access 150,000+ proprietary expert transcripts, growing by 6,000 per month, covering 24,000+ public and private companies.Comprehensive market intelligence—search 450M+ documents, including company filings, analyst research, expert interviews, and more, all connected for deeper analysis.AI-powered research at scale—complete qualitative research 5-10x faster with advanced generative AI, delivering instant, high-confidence insights.Start your free trial now at: https://www.alpha-sense.com/yavp/

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All right, hello, and welcome to the yet another value podcast. Yes, I'm your host, Andrew Walker. If you like this podcast, would mean a lot if you could rate, subscribe, review wherever you're watching or listening to it. I'm looking at the YouTube video. My hair is getting really long. So if you're watching on YouTube, I'll probably have to get a haircut before the next one you see. But it doesn't matter. Today is Saturday, February 22nd.

I am here for my monthly random ramblings. And before we hop into that, a quick disclaimer, nothing on this podcast is investing advice. That's always true. but, you know, particularly true today because I just mentioned it's a monthly random rambling. I'm going to be rambling through a bunch of things. I don't think I own any of these, any of the stocks or companies we're going to talk about. If I do, I'll try to disclose it as we go through. But, you know, I'm just a random guy who really needs a haircut, rambling about things.

So please consult a financial advisor, do your own work, do your own research, all that type of sell. Let's see, I have four topics, maybe five, but four topics that I think I want to talk about today. And just to list them up front. First topic is Libra and Argentina. The second topic is, what are some things you've learned or changed your mind on recently? The third topic is, are there such things as lucky stocks or unlucky stocks? And then the fourth topic is doing hands-on research and personal experience. So let's dive in.

First thing I want to talk about is Libra and Argentina. And for those who don't know, I guess I'm recording this February 22nd. I think it was February 14th. It might have been February 7th, but kind of Friday afternoon. Argentina's president. I never know if it's Miele or Miley. I think it's Muley. But he, you know, after market hours, he launched a meme coin, the Libra, L-I-B-R-A.

And he said, you know, he pinned it to his, he pinned it to his Twitter profile, said, hey, invest in Argentina, meme coin. And the meme coin went straight up. And then as meme coins do, there was a rugpole and the meme coin went straight down. And I think investors overall, you know, a lot of consumers, people who rushed into this Me and Quayne Cray's lost, like, if I just Googled, how much did Insiders make on Libra? And it says investors overall lost like $250 million, but insiders made like $180 million. And I think Dave Portnoy lost millions of dollars from Barso's Sports.

I think he lost millions of dollars. And then maybe got it refunded by the insiders because he's a big name. But I'm not sure. Anyway, the reason I mention it is, you know, Donald Trump right before he gets an office. And I love him or hate him. I think it's smart. He does it the weekend before he assumes. the presidency, he launches the meme coin, unlike Milay, who appears to have been involved in some

way, shape, or form while he's in the presidency, because if you can do it before the president, do it before the presidency versus while you're in office, I do think carries a kind of different legal standards. I'm not a lawyer, so that's not legal advice, but I think that's correct. But you know, you now have Milay who launched a meme coin or was in some way partnered with launching a meme coin in Argentina. You had Trump right before he takes office and Melania right before he takes office launching meme coins. And I just wonder, like, is this where politics is headed, right? Like, we're clearly going to a world where if you are, if you have attention, if you are

famous, there is a way to monetize it online, you know, the B and the A, B, C-level reality stars of the late 90s, early 2000s, like they didn't really, they had their 15 minutes of fame and they were dead. Today, you know, if you're a reality star, you can make a pretty nice career. going on Instagram and hawking products and doing referral fees and all that sort of stuff. Politicians of the 90s and 2000s, like, you know, they were kind of there to be politicians. And yes, they were consulting gix after. But increasingly, if you're a flamethrowing politician, the way to make your name is to be a

flame throwing politician, get a lot of media attention. And I, you know, I don't think that's great for politics. But as you do that, you're gaining a name and eventually you can monetize that with the meme coin. And I just keep thinking, like, you know, if you Google Barack Obama's net worth, I think he's worth like 70 million. He obviously passed president's stuff. They get great consulting deals. They get book deals. Obama gets to go consult and produce on Netflix shows and Spotify shows.

And people complained about that for a long time. But I worry that as you get more and more of this, like you see presidents starting to tilt their presidency or their politics to, hey, as soon as I'm out of office or maybe while I'm in office, I can launch meme coins. And, you know, the payday for being in the office is billions of dollars, potentially through meme coins and this type of stuff. And I don't know. People used to complain about the old system, but it seems like the new system skews a lot worse ways.

Like in the old system, you at least have to have a good reputation in order to get the consulting deals to get the book deals. And the new system, and I keep saying president because it's the highest profile, but they're going to be high profile senators, high profile representatives. all across the board who can use meme coins, use attention to monetize. And that's a world that attracts, you know, it's these posts instead of quiet, sophisticated types, it attracts flamethrers. It's a scary world.

It's weird. And look, it happened a week ago. I'm not an expert on everything Libra. But it just, I was already worried about it post the Trump ones. And it seems we're going this way. And it seems a really slippery, scary world where, you know, the incentives start to align really much harder to grabbing attention, public policy goods, you know, it was already low down the list. It seems very low down the list where all you want to do is grab attention and then

launch a meme coin or monetize it in some way, shape, or form. So anyway, that's something on my mind. And obviously, people have talked a little about the meme coins, but I don't think they've talked about it compared to kind of the old system. So I wanted to mention that. The second thing I want to talk about, you know, one thing I think it was Charlie Munger, who RIP obviously, Charlie Munger said, look, if you haven't changed your mind on something in a year on one big thing, obviously you can change your mind on if you prefer, you know, strawberry to grape jelly or something. But if you haven't changed your mind on one big thing in a year, then you didn't learn

anything. And I didn't do a January rambling. But when I was thinking about them, I was kind of thinking, what is something big you have changed your mind on in 2024? And I had a couple thoughts. But one market related that I thought was really interesting. that I'm still kind of developing, floating around, but I thought I'd throw it out there. I might do have posted something on it at some point.

If you would ask me, 2017, 2018, said, hey, Andrew, you know, if I gone to your head, put it the proverb going to your head and said, I want one repeatable strategy that you could employ over the course of your career, one repeatable type of trade strategy that you think would make a lot of alpha. I think I would have said buying companies by merger targets post deal break. So these are companies, you know, look, I've recounted it endlessly on the podcast, so we don't have to that too indeed, but Spirit Airlines is getting bought out by JetBlue in 2022, 2003. DOJ sues to block and eventually DOJ wins. Once that block happens, Spirit is now a post merger breakup, right? And I would have told you for years that post-merger breakups are the best

type of stock to buy. Why is that? Well, number one, the board has already shown they're willing to sell, right? They signed a contract to sell. They told investors, hey, we're willing to fire ourselves to take a premium offer. Number two, you've proved strategic or financial interest, right? You signed a deal. Somebody said, yes, I would like to pay almost always a premium, maybe a quite large premium to take this company private. So you've proved out financial value. You've proved out strategic value. Number three, during the merger, the company can't buy back stock.

They can't really do anything. And once the deal breaks, almost always, they're getting a breakup fee from the buyer. So companies emerge from these deal breaks with just absolutely pristine balance sheets. And number four, force selling. merger breaks, every merger ARB, every event investor, they're out, right? The day the merger breaks, there is no longer an event, there's no longer merger situation. So, you know, maybe some event investors have more flexible mandates, but in general, people are getting out that day.

So I would just combine the four and I'd say, hey, you've got great for selling. So even if you're running billions of dollars, you can get, you can often take big positions because there's, you know, dozens of ARBs that are just pounding the sell button the first day that the first day that the deal breaks. Great balance sheets, clean, you've got a board that's going to sell. So board that's going to sell is often important. You know, Time Warner Cable. In the early 2010s, Comcast tries to buy them.

The DOJ blocks that and the deal is scuttled. Well, you know, six months later, Charter tries to buy them. DOJ said no to Comcast, but there's often a buyer who they will say yes to, you know. And I think I can not right off the top of my head on a podcast, but you can find plenty of examples of companies that tried to sell to, you know, the biggest of big players. And then the DOJ said, no, we can't let you do that. And then they said, okay, well, if you won't let us sell to Google, maybe you'll let us sell to Bing or maybe you'll let us sell to, you know, mid-tier.

And so maybe they don't get quite the same premium the big, big player is going to do, but their balance sheet is much better. They've proven strategic target, and they can give a deal to the DOJ. So I would have said that was the area that I thought generated the most alpha. And, you know, when I was just thinking back to it, increasingly, I think it's the area that generates the worst alpha. In fact, I kind of think these days, now this is very unique, but we have seen a lot of buyers in broken deals who have done really, really well post-broken deal while the merger target is just floundering around. And look, maybe this is an N of one. But so I'm not so sold on the buyer side, but let's focus on the, let's focus on the, let's focus on the, uh,

seller side. So recently we've had Capri, their merger with tapestry, got blocked. And that stock has been a disaster, while tapestry has done very well since then. Spirit, their merger with JetBlue gets blocked. Spirits in bankruptcy, I think they're about to emerge from bankruptcy, right? It basically gets blocked and they go into bankruptcy. Some other ones. Rite Aid was going to get bought by Walgreens. Now, they were always in distress, but Rite Aid was going to get bought by Walgreens, that gets blocked and that goes into distress. Several others. So I guess, you know, for a long time, I would have told you if Twitter, when Twitter

was getting bought by Elon, if that deal had been blocked, that company would have emerged and been really, really screwed. So increasingly, I've been thinking, hey, there is no opportunity in post deal break stocks. And I've kind of been wondering about that. And I do think, I wonder if there's something different today than maybe 10, 15, 20 years go when my mind might have been focused on it. And I wonder if things are, A, the world's moving much faster now, right? So if you are a deal target and you're in deal, you have a signed agreement and the world is changing around you, your merger agreement really preclude you from doing

a lot of stuff. You can't do layoffs. You can't do big changes, strategy. You can't do anything outside the normal course of business. So I wonder if one of the reasons that these situations aren't playing out the way like I kind of thought and expected them to is because the world. is changing faster in these companies when they sign the merger agreements, they are no longer able to respond to the environment like they need to keep a functioning business. Business might just be harder now. That's what happens in evolutionary games and evolution. Things get harder and harder over time and business in general has never been harder than it is right now with instantaneous speed, AI taking it. So, you know, I think there's some other things there

and maybe it's small sample size. Maybe I'm just imagining the past five years. Maybe these were particularly dodgy, vulnerable set of companies that were having merger breaks. You know, if you went back to 2014, AT&T tried to buy T-Mobile. That deal got blocked. AT&T had to give T-Mobile a huge breakup fee in a lot of spectrum, and that laid the groundwork for T-Mobile to become the best-performing telecom stock out there right now. So there's a counter-example. I'm sure there are plenty others. But, you know, when I look at the recent past of deal breaks, I see a lot more carcasses than I see T-Mobiles.

Um, you know, Albertsons that they had to deal with Kroger. That deal just broke, uh, earlier this year. Maybe it was the tail end of last year. If you look at Albertson stock, they look very cheap. Uh, I think they've laid out a really interesting plan. But, you know, I, I, I thought about trading them. I bought like a couple hundred shares. I'd followed them for a long time.

And then eventually I sold, uh, so I don't have a position currently. I'm talking about when the deal broke. And the reason I sold was because I was kind of thinking like, hey, grocery is a fast moving place. Albertson's been under a deal for two years. Walmart's invested a lot. The tech is getting a lot harder. Amazon's coming for it. Like, yeah, it looks cheap. Yeah, you have the strategic marketer, but who's the buyer now? What's their future? If you listen to the court case, and I had Michael Cohen on for several podcasts on that court case, if you listen to that court case, it didn't sound like Albertsons was investing a lot into the standalone. So it looked really

cheap. That's just like one in the moment example I'm thinking of. So that's one thing that's really changed for me. It's an area I've thought about. And again, tapestry, very unique, but the Capri deal breaks. And that stock has been an absolute screamer because they got out of overpaying for Capri. And the business was kind of humming. And I do wonder if not only did they get out of overpaying for Capri, but if you believe the FTC in this case, the FTC was saying, hey, Capri and Tapestry would be a monopoly. You know, you do kind of think, hey, if you're in a merger and the DOJ blocks the merger because it be too monopolistic, Well, guess what?

Tapestry on one hand, because they weren't under the merger agreement, they could operate in the normal course. They could be as competitive. They could make strategic shifts, layoffs, whatever they needed to do. Capri couldn't. So the merger breaks, and then you've been operating, like, completely unbarred, and your merger partner's been operating with two hands tied behind their back. So you could kind of see a scenario where that is.

So it's just something that's really changed for me. I would love to continue that conversation if people have got other examples of breaks that have gone wrong, breaks that have gone right, things that they're thinking about there. But I think that's something that's really changed for me. And that's one I wanted to share. Maybe I'll do a write-up on that at some point. All right, let's quickly go to stocks that are unlucky and lucky. This, I have no anecdote.

I have no data here. But I do just wonder, there are one or two companies that I've seen that, you know, every time it seems like things are going their way, they just step on a rake. You know, hey, things are going so well. Oh, gosh, but our plant had a gas leak and we had to shut down for four months. or things are going so well, oh, gosh, you know, there was an explosion in our plant or things are going to great, oh, Facebook just entered our market or Facebook changed the Google changed the SEO's terms and now all of our organic traffic's going down.

I don't know. I have been wondering, though, there's just two or three companies. I talk to people, you know, every six months, someone will reach out about the company and I'll talk to them. I'll just like, I followed this company for five years. They're screwed. They're always screwed. It never works for them.

And I don't know what it is about this company, but for some reason, it never works. And then on the other hand, there are one or two companies where I'm just always skeptical, and I'm not talking Facebook or Microsoft who have great management teams, great assets. There are one or two other companies who I'm just always skeptical, and it always seems like management and the company in particular, because a lot of times the managed change, the company's pulling a rabbit out of their hats. And I've just been wondering, are there, is there such things as just like companies that are always screwed or companies that are always, companies that are always going to get lucky.

I understand, you know, luck. There is no real luck. But I wonder if there's something like to the companies, the middle management, the culture, their relevancy inside of, the relevancy inside of like overall America that just makes one or two companies like more likely to be lucky than the other companies and these other companies are screwed. I wonder if there's something to that. I wonder if there's some type of stock effect or anything there.

Again, just rambling. I have no data or something, but I will tell you, there are a handful of companies that over the years I follow, they've just been so screwed, so frequently through so frequently things outside of their control. I just, I could never really bring myself to touch them. And I've always thought, like, is it them? Is there something in particular? Are these companies just cursed?

I don't know what it is. Okay. Last thing. Let's go back into the realm of things that are not me just like looking at voodoo dolls and chicken bones. Doing hands on research and personal experience. So this is something I've thought about a lot. There's a recent story about Warren Buffett.

He was looking at a company in the 60s, and I think he hired someone to go and sit in a parking lot and watch the trucks go in and out of their parking lot. And, you know, the guy calls him, he's like, dude, there's a truck going in every five minutes. This company is doing business, right? Like they're extremely busy, absolute confirmatory vibe. And that also brings you into the famous billion stories of the guy, you know, breaking into warehouse to see if the inventory is sitting there moving or whatever. But that's like on the ground personal research. And in the billions example, that's MNPI. You could go to jail

for that. And the Buffett example, completely fine to sit outside of company's warehouse and just watch trucks go in or out and make your own conclusions. Right. And today, people have taken that to the extreme with satellite tracking of parking lots of how full they are and all that sort of stuff. But I've been thinking a lot about, you know, in Buffett's, because Buffett does it in, I think it's the early 60s. That's like going the extra mile. And there is research. that is going the extra mile in a fundamental basis, you know, just to use some, I don't think any of these are above and beyond for fundamental investors, but, you know, if you're going to take a big concentrated position, me with Full House, which I am long, that was my idea of the year

for 2025, you can go do the podcast. Like, obviously I'm going to go visit the casinos when I'm taking a position. That's just table stakes, but that is something, you know, you go visit a casino and I've gone and done site visits before, and it becomes clear that something's wrong. And that is, it's not MNPI, but you can make or break a thesis on something that it's not in the filings. You have to go out and visit it. And there are other much better examples of that type of stuff, right? What I laid out was table stakes, but I've been looking at franchiseors a lot recently. And, you know, if you're really looking at a franchisor, I've got a few friends who I think do great work on them.

You go to the franchisezor's conference and you talk to the franchisees and you say, hey, you own a McDonald's franchise. How's your McDonald's franchise doing? you open more? Would you open less? What are you hearing from other people? Like, what are your worries about the future? You ask a lot of franchisees. And that's stuff that can give you a fundamental view of the company that you're not going to get in spreadsheets. Maybe you can get it through, maybe you can get it through cold calling, but really going and like experience in it. And, you know, you keep going up and up and up. There are, you keep going up and up and up and there are ways to get better and better research. And obviously that taps out eventually.

But recently, a company that's looking at a government contract. And I know a lot of people, people were saying it was 50-50, you could call the government regulator up and talk to them and they would tell you, oh, yeah, this is happening, right? So that's an example of if you're just willing to pick up the phone and call a few different people, you can get insights that maybe the average market participant doesn't have, and you can imagine all different ways. So, anyway, thinking about going the extra mile, and there's two places I wanted to dive into that.

One, QSRs. I mentioned going to QSR, going to QSR, going to QSR. going to QSR's franchisee conference as an interesting way to build a view of the company. I wonder if there's like an extra mile to it, right? Like if you are a $20 billion fund, if you're Ackman and you have a huge stake in the Burger King's parent company, QSR, would buying a Burger King give you a differentiated view? You know, would buying and actually operating a Burger King franchise? Would that give you a differentiated view? I mean, then two ways.

A, you kind of get your hands dirty and you'd see. what was going on. But B, you'd have weekly results so you could see like how it was fluctuating in real time. And I think you'd have more insightful conversations with other franchisees than if you just went to the franchisees and said, hey, I'm investor. I just want to talk versus if you went and said, hey, I own the unit out in, you know, in the middle of Ohio and we're really struggling to hire minimum wage workers. Like, what are you guys doing? What are you guys seeing? Like, I think you'd have different insights in different operations. And if you're managing a $2 billion stake, you know, buying a $500,000 Burger King is nothing.

And I was interesting. Are there examples of people like, it's hard for me to think of things outside of QSR franchise. But your own name mark has been on the podcast several time and pitched IWG. They're starting to franchise, franchise remandage a lot of locations. Like, what about buying a office building and having IWG franchise the office building for you, right? Like, would that give you differentiated? insight into the business? Would it give you unique access to talking to other people? I don't know. I think it's a really interesting example. So I mentioned it for two reasons. One, I'm interested

to know if anyone, if anyone has done or knows of anyone who's done something kind of similar to what I'm saying, where you buy the operations of in some way, shape, or form to get more insights into an overall company. And B, it brings me to my next thing. I know when I've looked at franchises or When I've looked at franchises, I've talked to people, and they'll be long or short them, and I'll ask why. And they'll be, hey, I'm short McDonald's. Why? Because my aunt owns a McDonald's, and the past few years have been a disaster for her, right? She's losing money.

She can't retain employees, inflation's killing her, so I'm short McDonald's on that thesis. Or I'm long, I'm long, Popeyes. Why? My dad started a Popeye's, and it's doing gangbusters, and it put me through. college. So it's a great franchise system, right? I worry about if you did this plan or to take it to the stock market in general, you know, I'm always trying to divorce, trying to weigh how much to put personal experience into your stock market picks, right? Like, I, I know of a friend who refuses to invest in gyms. Why? Because he built a home gym for $1,000 and he's like,

the equipment's better than anything at a gym. I don't have to travel to it. Like, I've got a home I love it. And so he thinks like basically every gym is a short. I'll be like, hey, that's great. And that is one of the issues that face gyms as a stock as a concept in general, right? Like there is opportunity costs. If you're going to the gym every day to walk on a treadmill, if the gym hikes the price is too much, you buy a treadmill and put it in your house. But I was also telling like, dude, you are you are putting your experience where you have no kids, you've got the money to buy weights and everything. You're putting that experience against the average person's experience. You own a house. You turned your garage into a gym? What about me? I have an apartment. I have nowhere to put the gym. I have to go to a gym if I want to lift weights. What about somebody who's got three young kids? You know, the gym, they might only be able to go at lunchtime at work. So they can't have a home gym because they'd have to go back to the home. Like, the gym offers a lot of different services that I think because you have a unique experience, you're ignoring. Not that that's invalid, But, you know, if I, it's funny, over the past 10 years, like, if you love the product,

if you love Instagram and you bought Facebook, you did great. If you love Tesla and you bought Tesla stock, you did great. Over the past 10 years, a lot of people have done well on the, if you love the product, buy the stock. But historically, I do think there's something to, if you love the product, often it's a hypey new cycle. And, you know, how many restaurant chains have traded for 100 times earnings because they do well in the local market?

people love it. It goes public. People say this is the next McDonald's. This is the next Burger King. This is the next Dononos. And then it turns out, hey, it's really loved in that market. But as you expand, it faces a lot of issues. And then, you know, I've seen plenty of stocks that trade, plenty of restaurant companies that trade for hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars and ultimately get sold to private equity for $20 million when the concept tries to expand. All the expansion fails and they're just a disaster. So, you know, thinking about, A, how do you put your personal experience? How can you get more personal experience, how can you get more unique insights into a business? But B, how do you manage those

unique insights and your personal experience when you're trying to invest in a company? And just to bring it back to like, if I bought a McDonald's, I've never run a McDonald's before. If I bought a McDonald's, six months from now, I'd come on the random ramblings and update guys, this McDonald's thing, it's a disaster. We've got to short the stock to oblivion. My McDonald's can't make any money. Employees are leaving left and right, our labor costs are out of control. And you'd be like, guess what, dummy? Maybe that's true, but you're also a terrible manager. You've never worked in fast food before a day in your life.

Like, the reason your McDonald's is doing terribly is not because of McDonald's is because of you. So, you know, there's an example, a very vivid example where I could come to you with a straight face and say, this franchise is going terrible. And the conclusion would be wrong. The conclusion would be because McDonald's would be. No, Andrew, get a haircut. You're terrible.

You're a terrible manager. Anyway, those are my four random ramblings. quite random, kept the voice down a little bit because my background's blurred for the people in YouTube, but the baby is napping in the room in the background, so trying not to keep her up. Maybe I was a little slower, a little lower than normal. Look, as always, I appreciate you listening to the podcast. I look forward to doing a random ramblings in March. I always appreciate feedback at anything, so please leave me a comment, shoot me a note,

all that type of stuff. Got some great podcast lined up for the next few weeks, so looking forward to talking and hearing from you then, and we'll chat soon. This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense. If you're unfamiliar with AlphaSense, it's a market intelligence platform with the world's premier library of proprietary expert insights.

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